That is one big advantage of our voting system meaning that there's only one single MP per constituency. It makes it impossible to hide within a crowd, you can only be an MP if you yourself win that constituency - and if you give a reason for your party to dump you because you've been corrupt and the local paper is running the story then you're out.
Your cretinous misunderstanding of other electoral systems is occasionally amusing.
If you're a crook in a safe seat, you only have to convince (bribe) the handful of people on your local party selection committee to keep your job.
Compare with multi-member STV, where a dedicated Tory fanboy like yourself could choose from among several candidates to vote for, and pick one who is very slightly less crooked.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
Given the choice between extending until 2021 or not and breaking his promise not to have an Irish Sea border and annoying the DUP then yes Boris will probably ask the EU to extend the implementation period.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
Paragraph 1. Johnson has said, and why should we not believe him, that there will be NO extension.
Paragraph 2. You are not normally so silly as to make such a comment.
Boris has also now said there will be no border in the Irish Sea and why should we not believe him
I see the BBC have reversed their decision to stop broadcasting the Scottish Government's Covid Briefing. They got such a pasting and cancelled licences they have buckled and re-instated it.
That Talk of the Sound piece I posted reckons its very easy for a US postal vote to be disqualified, even when it is sent in. The process is actually quite tricky and bureaucratic, and any small mishaps mean you are disenfranchised.
In the school election in New Rochelle run by Cuomo only 17% of unsolicited ballots were ever returned.
Of those, 14% were disqualified.
Only 80% of solicited ballots were returned, if I read that piece right.
OK its a school election but it is clear that, ballots, whether solicited or unsolicited, do not mean votes. Not by a long chalk.
Let's make up some numbers and see what happens.
Suppose 3-in-10 votes this year are by post, and they break 2:1 to Democrats, but 10% of ballots are disqualified.
I think that changes a 50:50 contest to a 49:48 victory for the Republicans.
And those numbers could be worse for Democrats.
North Carolina provides some actual data on this:.
81005 Accepted 91 Pending 1464 Witness info incomplete 609 Spoiled 5 Signature different 20 Returned undeliverable 46 Pending cure 5 Conflict 7 Accepted - cured 3 Duplicate 1 E-transmission failure
So the current disqualification rate is 2.6%
Note that "pending" and "pending cure" may be counted, while "accepted - cured" would appear to be valid to count.
Also note that "returned undeliverable" indicates there was a problem with mailing address on file or provide by voter.
Of course the lion's share of the other-than-accepted ballots are "witness info incomplete" and "spoiled".
Not sure what "spoiled" means under NC election law.
Re: witnesses, in WA State a voter who submits a "mark" rather than a signature must have the ballot attested by two witnesses who sign the return ballot envelope. IF none of only one, the ballot is "challenged" by election workers, unless & until the voter submits the required info.
Based on WA experience, what strikes me is absence of ANY "no signature" ballots - meaning voter did NOT sign required oath on returned ballot envelope. In WA, such ballots (along with signature different & some other challenges) IF voter submits required info before the election is certified.
This from AP wire report published by Spectrum News 1, Charlotte NC:
"Patrick Gannon, spokesman for the [NC] state agency tasked with administering elections, said . . . unaccepted ballots could stem from voters improperly filling out their ballot, counties processing information that has not yet made its way into the statewide database or technical procedures that have resulted in “spoiled” ballot requests, which is most common among people who make multiple requests for absentee ballots due to a change of address."
Note that every election here in WA, hundred or even thousands of voters make multiple requests for ballots. Why? Because for some reason they did NOT receive the first one. Sometimes they end up getting the first one after they've requested a replacement. Whatever the situation, the system is designed to ONLY count one ballot per voter: the FIRST one received by their county election department.
I see the BBC have reversed their decision to stop broadcasting the Scottish Government's Covid Briefing. They got such a pasting and cancelled licences they have buckled and re-instated it.
The timing of cancelling it just as the second wave begins could hardly be worse.
I see the BBC have reversed their decision to stop broadcasting the Scottish Government's Covid Briefing. They got such a pasting and cancelled licences they have buckled and re-instated it.
The timing of cancelling it just as the second wave begins could hardly be worse.
Especially as they said it was for political reasons so SNP did not get more coverage than other parties. What clown decided that one.
That's hardly surprising because even the people in No 10 up to the PM himself didn't understand what he agreed to and campaign for. Even now he can't explain what he actually needs to change about it which is why the Internal Market Act is so wide ranging.
Unless he's under the impression that UK citizens have the vote in US elections, I can't see what he's trying to achieve. Or is the idea simply to scapegoat Biden (and a host of others) when the consequences of Brexit are revealed to be sub-optimal? If the latter then it rather suggests the Leavers have given up the ghost and are going for reputational damage limitation.
Unless he's under the impression that UK citizens have the vote in US elections, I can't see what he's trying to achieve. Or is the idea simply to scapegoat Biden (and a host of others) when the consequences of Brexit are revealed to be sub-optimal? If the latter then it rather suggests the Leavers have given up the ghost and are going for reputational damage limitation.
He’s out to show the world is against the UK, it’s everybody else’s fault, that’s why we need to take back control. Blah blah blah
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
I see Dido is blaming the "modelling" for not spotting there would be ramped up testing demand as soon as school starts.
FFS. Why don't they stop listening to these modellers and start using some basic f*cking common sense?
If you read Cummings' blogs, modelling is all. Especially when it is done by oddball mathy types. I suspect that's why Imperial still hold sway mightily at number 10 and Oxford can't get a word in.
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
It also ties into the Democratic foreign policy view of how to deal with China, i.e. consolidating the international rules-based order rather than more US unilateralism.
"The court ruled in a 5-2 decision that the Green Party did not follow proper procedure for getting on the ballot, overturning a Republican judge’s decision in a lower court ruling.
The Green Party earlier this year swapped out Elizabeth Faye Scroggin for Howie Hawkins as its presidential candidate. But the high court ruled that it failed to properly get Scroggin on the ballot, so “subsequent efforts to substitute Hawkins were a nullity.” It ruled a similar substitution effort to get Angela Walker on the ballot as the party’s vice presidential nominee was invalid.
“In sum, the Commonwealth Court erred in dismissing Objectors’ petition to set aside Scroggin’s nomination, and Hawkins’ substitution, as the Green Party’s candidate for President of the United States,” the court ruled, citing irregularities in the way the Green Party was supposed to file affidavits for the presidential candidate.
“That defect was fatal to Scroggin’s nomination and, therefore, to Hawkins’ substitution. Accordingly, the Secretary of the Commonwealth is directed to remove Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker from the general election ballot as the Green Party’s nominees for President and Vice President.”
The court’s two Republican justices agreed the petitions for Hawkins and Walker were not filed properly but that the Green Party could try to fix the errors retroactively."
In other words, the Green Meanies did NOT follow the law. As for the "retroactively" bit, this conveniently ignores fact that ballots are being printed NOW if not not before. Further delay would only serve to screw up the process, creating the chaos the GOP keeps predicting AND is in fact counting upon.
I see Dido is blaming the "modelling" for not spotting there would be ramped up testing demand as soon as school starts.
FFS. Why don't they stop listening to these modellers and start using some basic f*cking common sense?
If you read Cummings' blogs, modelling is all. Especially when it is done by oddball mathy types. I suspect that's why Imperial still hold sway mightily at number 10 and Oxford can't get a word in.
Looks to me like a severe underestimation of viral transmisability in schools.
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
It also ties into the Democratic foreign policy view of how to deal with China, i.e. consolidating the international rules-based order rather than more US unilateralism.
Let's face it, playing nice with china has worked really well in recent months.
Sam Coates/Times reckons there's tory rebellion brewing on renewing the COVID laws Sept 30.
Why would that be, when everything is going so swimmingly?
Too many of them are drinking the Trump Cool Aid
No too many of them getting bombarded by angry emails from constituents, which they quote in the questions they ask.
So what are they objecting to the management of the pandemic or the approach to it?
The ones I heard, the management, to be fair.
But the last MP on was Swayne, who is more of a libertarian. The general feeling is that whatever the gripe, they might want to at least partially take the T-Bird away....
I see Dido is blaming the "modelling" for not spotting there would be ramped up testing demand as soon as school starts.
FFS. Why don't they stop listening to these modellers and start using some basic f*cking common sense?
If you read Cummings' blogs, modelling is all. Especially when it is done by oddball mathy types. I suspect that's why Imperial still hold sway mightily at number 10 and Oxford can't get a word in.
Looks to me like a severe underestimation of viral transmisability in schools.
Yes - but of which virus?
The cold is rampant and if it looks like covid and sounds like covid it's enough to trash your covid testing program due to extreme demand for everyone trying to determine if it actually is covid or not, so they can get their kid back into school ASAP.
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
There could be a much simpler explanation: that he thinks that Boris going to damage peace in NI, and is therefore warning about it.
The actual Biden lead is 48-44 and oddly enough Monmouth are suggesting there's been very little movement since March. The other point worth considering is it's a poll of 420 AZ voters so the Margin of Error is an enormous 4.8% so it's probably not worth getting too excited about these numbers.
I like looking at the polls from states which don't get regular polling.
Utah's 2016 result was complicated by the presence of Evan McMullin as an Independent. He came third with a respectable 21.5% while Trump won by 18 points.
This is a Rasmussen poll for the Deseret News and it shows Trump ahead 53-35 so both Republicans and Democrats have taken eight points out of the McMullin share leaving Jorgensen with just 5%. MoE is 3.1% but this is a very safe states for Trump.
Conversely, California with its near 15 million voters is safe for Biden and the current PPIC poll has a 60-31 lead for the Democrat so a 29 point lead for Biden compared with the 30 point win last time for Clinton.
Sam Coates/Times reckons there's tory rebellion brewing on renewing the COVID laws Sept 30.
Why would that be, when everything is going so swimmingly?
Too many of them are drinking the Trump Cool Aid
No too many of them getting bombarded by angry emails from constituents, which they quote in the questions they ask.
To be blunt, so what?
I imagine the Opposition parties will support a continuation of the current legislation. The initial powers brought in at the end of March were set up for 6 months as is the case with other legislation which has to be periodically renewed by Parliament.
If 40 or 50 Conservative MPs vote against, that'll be a matter for internal Conservative Party discipline - perhaps they'll all be expelled and can form a new group, perhaps the Contrarian Party (I've heard worse).
All that will be happen is the powers will be rolled until March 2021.
I see Dido is blaming the "modelling" for not spotting there would be ramped up testing demand as soon as school starts.
FFS. Why don't they stop listening to these modellers and start using some basic f*cking common sense?
If you read Cummings' blogs, modelling is all. Especially when it is done by oddball mathy types. I suspect that's why Imperial still hold sway mightily at number 10 and Oxford can't get a word in.
I went to Imperial and yet I'm well balanced with an interest in the creative arts as well as in numbers.
I see the BBC have reversed their decision to stop broadcasting the Scottish Government's Covid Briefing. They got such a pasting and cancelled licences they have buckled and re-instated it.
The timing of cancelling it just as the second wave begins could hardly be worse.
Especially as they said it was for political reasons so SNP did not get more coverage than other parties. What clown decided that one.
I'm sure that Tim Davie CBE, ex councillor for the Conservative Party and deputy chairman of the Hammersmith and Fulham Conservative party, was entirely his own man in this matter.
I see Dido is blaming the "modelling" for not spotting there would be ramped up testing demand as soon as school starts.
FFS. Why don't they stop listening to these modellers and start using some basic f*cking common sense?
If you read Cummings' blogs, modelling is all. Especially when it is done by oddball mathy types. I suspect that's why Imperial still hold sway mightily at number 10 and Oxford can't get a word in.
Sounds like Heneghan had a good outing at the select committee today.
Sam Coates/Times reckons there's tory rebellion brewing on renewing the COVID laws Sept 30.
Why would that be, when everything is going so swimmingly?
Too many of them are drinking the Trump Cool Aid
No too many of them getting bombarded by angry emails from constituents, which they quote in the questions they ask.
To be blunt, so what?
I imagine the Opposition parties will support a continuation of the current legislation. The initial powers brought in at the end of March were set up for 6 months as is the case with other legislation which has to be periodically renewed by Parliament.
If 40 or 50 Conservative MPs vote against, that'll be a matter for internal Conservative Party discipline - perhaps they'll all be expelled and can form a new group, perhaps the Contrarian Party (I've heard worse).
All that will be happen is the powers will be rolled until March 2021.
You are probably correct, but the evidence is Bojo does not like rebellions. They may be tossed a bone....
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
That's more or less my reading of it. Edit: although, of course, you're view is a very Democrat one.
Still doesn't make it a wise or diplomatic thing to do. Behind closed doors or more nuanced in public, "we hope the UK considers its obligations carefully and we look forward to working with it" etc. or similar would have been better.
There are some slightly concerning polls out for Biden today.
First, USC (which called 2016 pretty much spot on) sees Biden drop back to 50% in their daily tracking. He was at 52% a few days ago.
Secondly, while the polls from Monmouth, Kaiser and Suffolk all show Biden ahead in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, the margins are all small.
The pattern that seems to be playing out is that Trump is eating into the DKs/WNVs at the moment, and that's something that I expect to continue through to polling day. The question becomes, can Biden hold on to a c. 50.5%+ share in the polls, because if he can then it's hard (although not impossible) for Trump to win.
As we've discussed before, each party could put a pug ape on the ballot paper, and be assured 45%+. Keeping the other side out is what drives most US voters.
There are some slightly concerning polls out for Biden today.
First, USC (which called 2016 pretty much spot on) sees Biden drop back to 50% in their daily tracking. He was at 52% a few days ago.
Secondly, while the polls from Monmouth, Kaiser and Suffolk all show Biden ahead in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, the margins are all small.
The pattern that seems to be playing out is that Trump is eating into the DKs/WNVs at the moment, and that's something that I expect to continue through to polling day. The question becomes, can Biden hold on to a c. 50.5%+ share in the polls, because if he can then it's hard (although not impossible) for Trump to win.
As we've discussed before, each party could put a pug ape on the ballot paper, and be assured 45%+. Keeping the other side out is what drives most US voters.
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
There could be a much simpler explanation: that he thinks that Boris going to damage peace in NI, and is therefore warning about it.
More than one explanation is possible, indeed probable. However, at present Uncle Joe is focusing on getting himself elected.
By warning about danger to peace, Biden makes not-so-subtle attack on Trumpsky.
Which is somewhat ironic, given his DT's lack of military action. BUT he still comes across (for some reason) as a MENACE to world peace - and allows Biden to contrast himself against this.
There are some slightly concerning polls out for Biden today.
First, USC (which called 2016 pretty much spot on) sees Biden drop back to 50% in their daily tracking. He was at 52% a few days ago.
Secondly, while the polls from Monmouth, Kaiser and Suffolk all show Biden ahead in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, the margins are all small.
The pattern that seems to be playing out is that Trump is eating into the DKs/WNVs at the moment, and that's something that I expect to continue through to polling day. The question becomes, can Biden hold on to a c. 50.5%+ share in the polls, because if he can then it's hard (although not impossible) for Trump to win.
As we've discussed before, each party could put a pug ape on the ballot paper, and be assured 45%+. Keeping the other side out is what drives most US voters.
And here too increasingly.
The default answer to "How can you possibly have voted for this ghastly individual to be our PM?" -
I see Dido is blaming the "modelling" for not spotting there would be ramped up testing demand as soon as school starts.
FFS. Why don't they stop listening to these modellers and start using some basic f*cking common sense?
If you read Cummings' blogs, modelling is all. Especially when it is done by oddball mathy types. I suspect that's why Imperial still hold sway mightily at number 10 and Oxford can't get a word in.
I went to Imperial and yet I'm well balanced with an interest in the creative arts as well as in numbers.
The US are taking peace in Ireland seriously, Boris seems to think that he can muddle through somehow.
That really is the nub of the matter.
It is probably true that US Politicians do not entirely understand the details of sectarian politics in Northern Ireland, but they are genuinely fearful there could be a return to the guerilla warfare of the recent past.
I see Dido is blaming the "modelling" for not spotting there would be ramped up testing demand as soon as school starts.
FFS. Why don't they stop listening to these modellers and start using some basic f*cking common sense?
Maybe because 'basic f*cking common sense' doesn't actually give you any numbers, which is what you need for planning.
No, the issue is that she isn't a data modeller and can't properly fisk the garbage data coming from sage. The politicians had this problem as well, but they have the defence that they are elected and doing the best job under the circumstances of not needing to know this stuff. She doesn't have that defence.
There are some slightly concerning polls out for Biden today.
First, USC (which called 2016 pretty much spot on) sees Biden drop back to 50% in their daily tracking. He was at 52% a few days ago.
Secondly, while the polls from Monmouth, Kaiser and Suffolk all show Biden ahead in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, the margins are all small.
The pattern that seems to be playing out is that Trump is eating into the DKs/WNVs at the moment, and that's something that I expect to continue through to polling day. The question becomes, can Biden hold on to a c. 50.5%+ share in the polls, because if he can then it's hard (although not impossible) for Trump to win.
As we've discussed before, each party could put a pug ape on the ballot paper, and be assured 45%+. Keeping the other side out is what drives most US voters.
And here too increasingly.
The default answer to "How can you possibly have voted for this ghastly individual to be our PM?" -
There are some slightly concerning polls out for Biden today.
First, USC (which called 2016 pretty much spot on) sees Biden drop back to 50% in their daily tracking. He was at 52% a few days ago.
Secondly, while the polls from Monmouth, Kaiser and Suffolk all show Biden ahead in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, the margins are all small.
The pattern that seems to be playing out is that Trump is eating into the DKs/WNVs at the moment, and that's something that I expect to continue through to polling day. The question becomes, can Biden hold on to a c. 50.5%+ share in the polls, because if he can then it's hard (although not impossible) for Trump to win.
As we've discussed before, each party could put a pug ape on the ballot paper, and be assured 45%+. Keeping the other side out is what drives most US voters.
And here too increasingly.
The default answer to "How can you possibly have voted for this ghastly individual to be our PM?" -
"Well it was that or Jeremy Corbyn."
In fairness that was a pretty reasonable answer.
I really would like to blame Corbyn directly for the current testing crisis, the soon to be repeated care homes scandal and the 'No Deal' Brexit fiasco.
Indirectly I do blame Corbyn for the whole sorry mess.
How dare that arsehole Johnson need a bloody half-Irish Yank Democrat to remind him that he's supposed to be PM of the UK?
For decades, we've been able - with right on our side - to attack the Yanks for supporting Irish terrorism. Even now, we can point out that Trump paid real money to attend an IRA front meeting in the 1990s.
It's taken till now, though, for us to find our own PM is passing laws even the terrorist-friendly Democrats think are doing the IRA's job for it.
I also see that Johnson is no longer trying to flatten the sombrero. We are now flattening the camel's hump.
Presumably a double humped one.
What a shambles.
Quite.
Now, to the next round of measures (because clearly the Government is terrified of the rising case numbers and is reaching the limits of the usefulness of whac-a-mole, because it can't deliver the volume of testing to pursue that strategy.)
The Government has several cards it can plausibly play nationally, before it starts to forcibly close businesses and finish off the economy. That is, I can see us going all the way back to an April-style, near-total lockdown eventually, but that will cause far more damage even than the first one and means the effective end of Johnson's Premiership, so that ought only to come after everything else has been tried.
An obvious place to start is with a nationwide curfew, because this seems to be the new fashion and it hasn't been tried yet. Grassroots sport has been identified as a problem in the North East lockdown, which is almost certainly down to thick as mince football and rugby lads getting wasted together after matches, so I can see team sports being knocked on the head for the duration. Increasingly restrictive and picky mask rules (the daft regulations already applicable in restaurants in Scotland, and quite possibly compulsory rags in all workplaces) seem almost inevitable, and I wouldn't be surprised if it became illegal not to wear one under pretty much all circumstances outside of the home, save for when exercising, within the next month or so.
After that ought really to come a resumption of the order to work from home if possible and the cessation of international travel, but those are both highly embarrassing presentationally so they might dust off the shielding list before that, perhaps with additional categories (say, all over 80s and the morbidly obese) tacked on for good measure. After that comes stay at home advice for all the over 70s, the resumption of blanket bans on visitors to care homes, and finally an end to all social contact outside of the household, except for essential care responsibilities and possibly support bubbles.
If the Government works its way through all those measures and still hasn't achieved the level of suppression that it wants then it will have to decide whether to tolerate that situation, or to destroy both itself and the country by implementing a full-scale shutdown of education and most businesses - because if that happens a second time then nobody can have any confidence that they won't do it a third time, and a fourth, and in regular cycles thereafter until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, which might never happen. So we might as well all slit our wrists or start prepping for civilizational collapse at that juncture.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
It is late in the day, I am tired and I am struggling to compute KP's logic.
No, there is some sense in what he is saying. If the full lockdown didn't clear the problem, then why should half measures, particularly ones widely ignored?
We need clearer methods to make a tolerable life until this is over, ones that are consistent and clear. I really don't want to go back to April again.
Edinburgh put on haggis instead. Terrible option. Haggis is delicious but should not be on a breakfast plate.
you can get haggis and blackpudding, if you know where to look...
The big question though is where can you get dumpling?
Absolutely agreed. My late mother's clootie dumpling is much missed (ideally boiled in a cloth hence the name). Hot with custard the first day, sliced and fried in butter for dessert the next and the next and the next. Some have it sliced for breakfast, hence the link here (as well as the sausage kind of link, of course).
For the election the Trump team plan is to win it (not likely), steal it (more likely), or dispute it (most likely). All the nonsense Trump has said about voting over the last month or so is setting up the last of those three outcomes.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
I have absolutely zero idea why they are running McSally again.
I also see that Johnson is no longer trying to flatten the sombrero. We are now flattening the camel's hump.
Presumably a double humped one.
What a shambles.
Quite.
Now, to the next round of measures (because clearly the Government is terrified of the rising case numbers and is reaching the limits of the usefulness of whac-a-mole, because it can't deliver the volume of testing to pursue that strategy.)
The Government has several cards it can plausibly play nationally, before it starts to forcibly close businesses and finish off the economy. That is, I can see us going all the way back to an April-style, near-total lockdown eventually, but that will cause far more damage even than the first one and means the effective end of Johnson's Premiership, so that ought only to come after everything else has been tried.
An obvious place to start is with a nationwide curfew, because this seems to be the new fashion and it hasn't been tried yet. Grassroots sport has been identified as a problem in the North East lockdown, which is almost certainly down to thick as mince football and rugby lads getting wasted together after matches, so I can see team sports being knocked on the head for the duration. Increasingly restrictive and picky mask rules (the daft regulations already applicable in restaurants in Scotland, and quite possibly compulsory rags in all workplaces) seem almost inevitable, and I wouldn't be surprised if it became illegal not to wear one under pretty much all circumstances outside of the home, save for when exercising, within the next month or so.
After that ought really to come a resumption of the order to work from home if possible and the cessation of international travel, but those are both highly embarrassing presentationally so they might dust off the shielding list before that, perhaps with additional categories (say, all over 80s and the morbidly obese) tacked on for good measure. After that comes stay at home advice for all the over 70s, the resumption of blanket bans on visitors to care homes, and finally an end to all social contact outside of the household, except for essential care responsibilities and possibly support bubbles.
If the Government works its way through all those measures and still hasn't achieved the level of suppression that it wants then it will have to decide whether to tolerate that situation, or to destroy both itself and the country by implementing a full-scale shutdown of education and most businesses - because if that happens a second time then nobody can have any confidence that they won't do it a third time, and a fourth, and in regular cycles thereafter until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, which might never happen. So we might as well all slit our wrists or start prepping for civilizational collapse at that juncture.
Bleak, eh?
I don't think much of this will come to pass.
Mask wearing is already done under sufferance, in shops and on public transport. There will be no acceptance of any suggestion to wear them whilst E.G. walking to work, walking the kids to school, walking the dog, nipping to the corner shop. It just won't happen. Suspect there would be a 1922 Ctte challenge if it was mooted.
I suspect school and business closures would not be ordered by the government. For a start, there isn't the money to support the population that there was before. Sure, there might be some self regulation - indeed this shopkeeper has never reopened the front doors. Frankly, we're more efficient working online and mail order only.
I also see that Johnson is no longer trying to flatten the sombrero. We are now flattening the camel's hump.
Presumably a double humped one.
What a shambles.
Quite.
Now, to the next round of measures (because clearly the Government is terrified of the rising case numbers and is reaching the limits of the usefulness of whac-a-mole, because it can't deliver the volume of testing to pursue that strategy.)
The Government has several cards it can plausibly play nationally, before it starts to forcibly close businesses and finish off the economy. That is, I can see us going all the way back to an April-style, near-total lockdown eventually, but that will cause far more damage even than the first one and means the effective end of Johnson's Premiership, so that ought only to come after everything else has been tried.
An obvious place to start is with a nationwide curfew, because this seems to be the new fashion and it hasn't been tried yet. Grassroots sport has been identified as a problem in the North East lockdown, which is almost certainly down to thick as mince football and rugby lads getting wasted together after matches, so I can see team sports being knocked on the head for the duration. Increasingly restrictive and picky mask rules (the daft regulations already applicable in restaurants in Scotland, and quite possibly compulsory rags in all workplaces) seem almost inevitable, and I wouldn't be surprised if it became illegal not to wear one under pretty much all circumstances outside of the home, save for when exercising, within the next month or so.
After that ought really to come a resumption of the order to work from home if possible and the cessation of international travel, but those are both highly embarrassing presentationally so they might dust off the shielding list before that, perhaps with additional categories (say, all over 80s and the morbidly obese) tacked on for good measure. After that comes stay at home advice for all the over 70s, the resumption of blanket bans on visitors to care homes, and finally an end to all social contact outside of the household, except for essential care responsibilities and possibly support bubbles.
If the Government works its way through all those measures and still hasn't achieved the level of suppression that it wants then it will have to decide whether to tolerate that situation, or to destroy both itself and the country by implementing a full-scale shutdown of education and most businesses - because if that happens a second time then nobody can have any confidence that they won't do it a third time, and a fourth, and in regular cycles thereafter until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, which might never happen. So we might as well all slit our wrists or start prepping for civilizational collapse at that juncture.
Bleak, eh?
I don't think much of this will come to pass.
Mask wearing is already done under sufferance, in shops and on public transport. There will be no acceptance of any suggestion to wear them whilst walking to work. It just won't happen. Suspect there would be a 1922 Ctte challenge if it was mooted.
I suspect school and business closures would not be ordered by the government. For a start, there isn't the money to support the population that there was before. Sure, there might be some self regulation - indeed this shopkeeper has never reopened the front doors. Frankly, we're more efficient working online and mail order only.
One should rule out precisely nothing from this Government. It is rudderless, deeply incompetent and capricious. They could do anything, change any decision from one day to the next. Their assurances on any topic are entirely worthless.
In fairness isn't a fifth of Scotland under some form of social distancing/lockdown, such is Nipoleon's success?
Don't you understand the rules of the game by now? Anything that goes right in Scotland is the work of the Scottish Government. Anything that goes wrong is the fault of the Tories.
The fact that both administrations have been roughly as useless as each other counts for nothing.
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
That's more or less my reading of it. Edit: although, of course, you're view is a very Democrat one.
Still doesn't make it a wise or diplomatic thing to do. Behind closed doors or more nuanced in public, "we hope the UK considers its obligations carefully and we look forward to working with it" etc. or similar would have been better.
Keeping his trap shut would have been better. Impertinent old goat.
It is late in the day, I am tired and I am struggling to compute KP's logic.
No, there is some sense in what he is saying. If the full lockdown didn't clear the problem, then why should half measures, particularly ones widely ignored?
We need clearer methods to make a tolerable life until this is over, ones that are consistent and clear. I really don't want to go back to April again.
I like your interpretation, but that does sound far too academic for KP.
In fairness isn't a fifth of Scotland under some form of social distancing/lockdown, such is Nipoleon's success?
Don't you understand the rules of the game by now? Anything that goes right in Scotland is the work of the Scottish Government. Anything that goes wrong is the fault of the Tories.
The fact that both administrations have been roughly as useless as each other counts for nothing.
It's certainly true that cases only Fall in Scotland but Rise in the UK.......
I also see that Johnson is no longer trying to flatten the sombrero. We are now flattening the camel's hump.
Presumably a double humped one.
What a shambles.
Quite.
Now, to the next round of measures (because clearly the Government is terrified of the rising case numbers and is reaching the limits of the usefulness of whac-a-mole, because it can't deliver the volume of testing to pursue that strategy.)
The Government has several cards it can plausibly play nationally, before it starts to forcibly close businesses and finish off the economy. That is, I can see us going all the way back to an April-style, near-total lockdown eventually, but that will cause far more damage even than the first one and means the effective end of Johnson's Premiership, so that ought only to come after everything else has been tried.
An obvious place to start is with a nationwide curfew, because this seems to be the new fashion and it hasn't been tried yet. Grassroots sport has been identified as a problem in the North East lockdown, which is almost certainly down to thick as mince football and rugby lads getting wasted together after matches, so I can see team sports being knocked on the head for the duration. Increasingly restrictive and picky mask rules (the daft regulations already applicable in restaurants in Scotland, and quite possibly compulsory rags in all workplaces) seem almost inevitable, and I wouldn't be surprised if it became illegal not to wear one under pretty much all circumstances outside of the home, save for when exercising, within the next month or so.
After that ought really to come a resumption of the order to work from home if possible and the cessation of international travel, but those are both highly embarrassing presentationally so they might dust off the shielding list before that, perhaps with additional categories (say, all over 80s and the morbidly obese) tacked on for good measure. After that comes stay at home advice for all the over 70s, the resumption of blanket bans on visitors to care homes, and finally an end to all social contact outside of the household, except for essential care responsibilities and possibly support bubbles.
If the Government works its way through all those measures and still hasn't achieved the level of suppression that it wants then it will have to decide whether to tolerate that situation, or to destroy both itself and the country by implementing a full-scale shutdown of education and most businesses - because if that happens a second time then nobody can have any confidence that they won't do it a third time, and a fourth, and in regular cycles thereafter until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, which might never happen. So we might as well all slit our wrists or start prepping for civilizational collapse at that juncture.
Bleak, eh?
I don't think much of this will come to pass.
Mask wearing is already done under sufferance, in shops and on public transport. There will be no acceptance of any suggestion to wear them whilst walking to work. It just won't happen. Suspect there would be a 1922 Ctte challenge if it was mooted.
I suspect school and business closures would not be ordered by the government. For a start, there isn't the money to support the population that there was before. Sure, there might be some self regulation - indeed this shopkeeper has never reopened the front doors. Frankly, we're more efficient working online and mail order only.
One should rule out precisely nothing from this Government. It is rudderless, deeply incompetent and capricious. They could do anything, change any decision from one day to the next. Their assurances on any topic are entirely worthless.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Comments
If you're a crook in a safe seat, you only have to convince (bribe) the handful of people on your local party selection committee to keep your job.
Compare with multi-member STV, where a dedicated Tory fanboy like yourself could choose from among several candidates to vote for, and pick one who is very slightly less crooked.
Also note that "returned undeliverable" indicates there was a problem with mailing address on file or provide by voter.
Of course the lion's share of the other-than-accepted ballots are "witness info incomplete" and "spoiled".
Not sure what "spoiled" means under NC election law.
Re: witnesses, in WA State a voter who submits a "mark" rather than a signature must have the ballot attested by two witnesses who sign the return ballot envelope. IF none of only one, the ballot is "challenged" by election workers, unless & until the voter submits the required info.
Based on WA experience, what strikes me is absence of ANY "no signature" ballots - meaning voter did NOT sign required oath on returned ballot envelope. In WA, such ballots (along with signature different & some other challenges) IF voter submits required info before the election is certified.
This from AP wire report published by Spectrum News 1, Charlotte NC:
"Patrick Gannon, spokesman for the [NC] state agency tasked with administering elections, said . . . unaccepted ballots could stem from voters improperly filling out their ballot, counties processing information that has not yet made its way into the statewide database or technical procedures that have resulted in “spoiled” ballot requests, which is most common among people who make multiple requests for absentee ballots due to a change of address."
Note that every election here in WA, hundred or even thousands of voters make multiple requests for ballots. Why? Because for some reason they did NOT receive the first one. Sometimes they end up getting the first one after they've requested a replacement. Whatever the situation, the system is designed to ONLY count one ballot per voter: the FIRST one received by their county election department.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1306580332062404609
That's hardly surprising because even the people in No 10 up to the PM himself didn't understand what he agreed to and campaign for. Even now he can't explain what he actually needs to change about it which is why the Internal Market Act is so wide ranging.
You are scaring me!!
Why would that be, when everything is going so swimmingly?
FFS. Why don't they stop listening to these modellers and start using some basic f*cking common sense?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
Presumably a double humped one.
What a shambles.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0917/1165839-35-positive-covid-19-cases-so-far-in-schools-hse/
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
The Green Party earlier this year swapped out Elizabeth Faye Scroggin for Howie Hawkins as its presidential candidate. But the high court ruled that it failed to properly get Scroggin on the ballot, so “subsequent efforts to substitute Hawkins were a nullity.” It ruled a similar substitution effort to get Angela Walker on the ballot as the party’s vice presidential nominee was invalid.
“In sum, the Commonwealth Court erred in dismissing Objectors’ petition to set aside Scroggin’s nomination, and Hawkins’ substitution, as the Green Party’s candidate for President of the United States,” the court ruled, citing irregularities in the way the Green Party was supposed to file affidavits for the presidential candidate.
“That defect was fatal to Scroggin’s nomination and, therefore, to Hawkins’ substitution. Accordingly, the Secretary of the Commonwealth is directed to remove Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker from the general election ballot as the Green Party’s nominees for President and Vice President.”
The court’s two Republican justices agreed the petitions for Hawkins and Walker were not filed properly but that the Green Party could try to fix the errors retroactively."
In other words, the Green Meanies did NOT follow the law. As for the "retroactively" bit, this conveniently ignores fact that ballots are being printed NOW if not not before. Further delay would only serve to screw up the process, creating the chaos the GOP keeps predicting AND is in fact counting upon.
But the last MP on was Swayne, who is more of a libertarian. The general feeling is that whatever the gripe, they might want to at least partially take the T-Bird away....
The cold is rampant and if it looks like covid and sounds like covid it's enough to trash your covid testing program due to extreme demand for everyone trying to determine if it actually is covid or not, so they can get their kid back into school ASAP.
Shades of Princeton model... 99.5% chance for Biden.
Now even as a broad Biden backer must say I'd be all over 200-1 Trump.
One or two getting over-excited about the Monmouth poll in Arizona. The RCP numbers are a shade misleading:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_AZ_091720/
The actual Biden lead is 48-44 and oddly enough Monmouth are suggesting there's been very little movement since March. The other point worth considering is it's a poll of 420 AZ voters so the Margin of Error is an enormous 4.8% so it's probably not worth getting too excited about these numbers.
I like looking at the polls from states which don't get regular polling.
Utah's 2016 result was complicated by the presence of Evan McMullin as an Independent. He came third with a respectable 21.5% while Trump won by 18 points.
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/9/16/21439705/poll-are-you-better-off-than-you-were-4-years-ago-what-about-the-country-trump-biden-race
This is a Rasmussen poll for the Deseret News and it shows Trump ahead 53-35 so both Republicans and Democrats have taken eight points out of the McMullin share leaving Jorgensen with just 5%. MoE is 3.1% but this is a very safe states for Trump.
Conversely, California with its near 15 million voters is safe for Biden and the current PPIC poll has a 60-31 lead for the Democrat so a 29 point lead for Biden compared with the 30 point win last time for Clinton.
https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2020.pdf
Finally, the SUPRC poll for North Carolina puts Biden in front by 46.2 to 42.8 but still a large margin of error of 4.4% with only 500 sampled:
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/9_17_2020_final_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=5DC99940626437C04DBD9ABB955C0294E88E5171
I imagine the Opposition parties will support a continuation of the current legislation. The initial powers brought in at the end of March were set up for 6 months as is the case with other legislation which has to be periodically renewed by Parliament.
If 40 or 50 Conservative MPs vote against, that'll be a matter for internal Conservative Party discipline - perhaps they'll all be expelled and can form a new group, perhaps the Contrarian Party (I've heard worse).
All that will be happen is the powers will be rolled until March 2021.
Or am I?
https://twitter.com/CitySamuel/status/1306655692669976576
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1306655071262912512
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1306658866801897472
Still doesn't make it a wise or diplomatic thing to do. Behind closed doors or more nuanced in public, "we hope the UK considers its obligations carefully and we look forward to working with it" etc. or similar would have been better.
I could insure my whole position for £20!
By warning about danger to peace, Biden makes not-so-subtle attack on Trumpsky.
Which is somewhat ironic, given his DT's lack of military action. BUT he still comes across (for some reason) as a MENACE to world peace - and allows Biden to contrast himself against this.
The default answer to "How can you possibly have voted for this ghastly individual to be our PM?" -
"Well it was that or Jeremy Corbyn."
It is probably true that US Politicians do not entirely understand the details of sectarian politics in Northern Ireland, but they are genuinely fearful there could be a return to the guerilla warfare of the recent past.
I suspect Johnson doesn't understand it either.
https://twitter.com/KP24/status/1306493957661229057?s=19
Be interesting to see how many requests for replacement ballots (keep in mind only ONE is counted per customer) are from REPUBLICAN voters?
Indirectly I do blame Corbyn for the whole sorry mess.
My country is being run by idiots.
For decades, we've been able - with right on our side - to attack the Yanks for supporting Irish terrorism. Even now, we can point out that Trump paid real money to attend an IRA front meeting in the 1990s.
It's taken till now, though, for us to find our own PM is passing laws even the terrorist-friendly Democrats think are doing the IRA's job for it.
Now, to the next round of measures (because clearly the Government is terrified of the rising case numbers and is reaching the limits of the usefulness of whac-a-mole, because it can't deliver the volume of testing to pursue that strategy.)
The Government has several cards it can plausibly play nationally, before it starts to forcibly close businesses and finish off the economy. That is, I can see us going all the way back to an April-style, near-total lockdown eventually, but that will cause far more damage even than the first one and means the effective end of Johnson's Premiership, so that ought only to come after everything else has been tried.
An obvious place to start is with a nationwide curfew, because this seems to be the new fashion and it hasn't been tried yet. Grassroots sport has been identified as a problem in the North East lockdown, which is almost certainly down to thick as mince football and rugby lads getting wasted together after matches, so I can see team sports being knocked on the head for the duration. Increasingly restrictive and picky mask rules (the daft regulations already applicable in restaurants in Scotland, and quite possibly compulsory rags in all workplaces) seem almost inevitable, and I wouldn't be surprised if it became illegal not to wear one under pretty much all circumstances outside of the home, save for when exercising, within the next month or so.
After that ought really to come a resumption of the order to work from home if possible and the cessation of international travel, but those are both highly embarrassing presentationally so they might dust off the shielding list before that, perhaps with additional categories (say, all over 80s and the morbidly obese) tacked on for good measure. After that comes stay at home advice for all the over 70s, the resumption of blanket bans on visitors to care homes, and finally an end to all social contact outside of the household, except for essential care responsibilities and possibly support bubbles.
If the Government works its way through all those measures and still hasn't achieved the level of suppression that it wants then it will have to decide whether to tolerate that situation, or to destroy both itself and the country by implementing a full-scale shutdown of education and most businesses - because if that happens a second time then nobody can have any confidence that they won't do it a third time, and a fourth, and in regular cycles thereafter until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, which might never happen. So we might as well all slit our wrists or start prepping for civilizational collapse at that juncture.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
We need clearer methods to make a tolerable life until this is over, ones that are consistent and clear. I really don't want to go back to April again.
Can anyone remember who he is? A cheese-eating, Remoaner surrender monkey is my guess. Lord COWARD, more like!
https://twitter.com/feliciasonmez/status/1306671119114604544
I don't think much of this will come to pass.
Mask wearing is already done under sufferance, in shops and on public transport. There will be no acceptance of any suggestion to wear them whilst E.G. walking to work, walking the kids to school, walking the dog, nipping to the corner shop. It just won't happen. Suspect there would be a 1922 Ctte challenge if it was mooted.
I suspect school and business closures would not be ordered by the government. For a start, there isn't the money to support the population that there was before. Sure, there might be some self regulation - indeed this shopkeeper has never reopened the front doors. Frankly, we're more efficient working online and mail order only.
https://twitter.com/sinnfeinireland/status/908411888316411904?s=19
I guess they preferred dead people to panicked live ones...
https://twitter.com/JimfromOldham/status/1306673702847864837?s=20
The fact that both administrations have been roughly as useless as each other counts for nothing.
Not the beaming matey "I'm on your side" Biden shtick with a known ex-terrorist leader and apologist.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
He really really wants to be PM.
That's the problem...
We get a very one-sided view of America on here.