Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
That does not really tell us much given 67% of Democrats this year intend to vote via mail in postal ballot compared to just 28% of Republicans and 57% of Republicans intend to vote on the day compared to just 37% of Democrats.
67% of Democrats plan to vote via mail and 37% of Democrats intend to vote on the day. That's 104% of Democrats ?!
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
It is, but those attributes are a good start. The vast majority of the criticism she is getting is just uninformed, prejudiced sniping by people who haven't the faintest idea whether she is good at the job because they don't have the faintest idea of the organisational challenges of the job, how much of a mess she inherited, and how hard it is to do anything in the NHS.
I think it probably fair to say that Dido can't give any useful answers to any interesting questions, as she either "doesn't have the hard data", or the question deals with a matter covered by "commercial confidentiality".
Though here is a pleasing absence of meaningless metaphors.
She's not divorced from reality, but her capability to influence it as a manager of the organisation isn't particularly evident.
I was once invited as an independent training provider to a meeting of Estyn in Cardiff. After three hours nothing had been agreed except for a dozen or so meetings to discuss the dozen or so points that had been raised but not agreed upon. Dido's waffle reminds me of that wasted morning.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
That lot resulted in 2,362,631 Trump / 2,189,316 Clinton / 187,345 Someone else
Why do left wing parties in general tend to do better by postal votes and right wing voting in person?
It's the same here, but not so pronounced
It always seems a little suspicious to me.
Remain won the in person vote in 2016. The postals turned it to Leave.
Does that seem suspicious to you?
Well the old tended to vote for Brexit more often, so it makes sense to an extent.
The old also vote more right wing in general, so you'd expect to see the same pattern...but you see the opposite.
That would be a problem - the old voting for Brexit more often. Once was the limit.
But anyway, if you're happy I'm happy.
Truth is, the risk and extent of vote-rigging is correlated to the integrity of a country's democratic process and politicians not to the 'left or right' political complexion of the parties involved.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
OK. In that case what is the point of Dido?
Do you think her sole purpose is test demand projections?
That does not really tell us much given 67% of Democrats this year intend to vote via mail in postal ballot compared to just 28% of Republicans and 57% of Republicans intend to vote on the day compared to just 37% of Democrats.
67% of Democrats plan to vote via mail and 37% of Democrats intend to vote on the day. That's 104% of Democrats ?!
Landslide territory and no mistake.
That's Landslide Lyndon territory...
HYUFD has inadvertently started a new Trumpian conspiracy theory.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
OK. In that case what is the point of Dido?
Do you think her sole purpose is test demand projections?
I am not entirely sure what function she serves. Is she?
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
OK. In that case what is the point of Dido?
Do you think her sole purpose is test demand projections?
I am not entirely sure what function she serves. Is she?
I'm not even sure what you are asking. Her job is an executive director, not as a statistician.
On today's figure my UK R estimate is 1.10 (+0.01 from yesterday's estimate). Estimates the average number of onward transmissions from each person confirmed positive between 6-13/9 (or 4 day change in the 7 day rolling case average).
If the testing turnaround is still increasing, it is quite possible this could be a slightly low estimate.
That Talk of the Sound piece I posted reckons its very easy for a US postal vote to be disqualified, even when it is sent in. The process is actually quite tricky and bureaucratic, and any small mishaps mean you are disenfranchised.
In the school election in New Rochelle run by Cuomo only 17% of unsolicited ballots were ever returned.
Of those, 14% were disqualified.
Only 80% of solicited ballots were returned, if I read that piece right.
OK its a school election but it is clear that, ballots, whether solicited or unsolicited, do not mean votes. Not by a long chalk.
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
That lot resulted in 2,362,631 Trump / 2,189,316 Clinton / 187,345 Someone else
Why do left wing parties in general tend to do better by postal votes and right wing voting in person?
It's the same here, but not so pronounced
It always seems a little suspicious to me.
Remain won the in person vote in 2016. The postals turned it to Leave.
Does that seem suspicious to you?
Well the old tended to vote for Brexit more often, so it makes sense to an extent.
The old also vote more right wing in general, so you'd expect to see the same pattern...but you see the opposite.
That would be a problem - the old voting for Brexit more often. Once was the limit.
But anyway, if you're happy I'm happy.
Truth is, the risk and extent of vote-rigging is correlated to the integrity of a country's democratic process and politicians not to the 'left or right' political complexion of the parties involved.
Well that's a roundabout way of saying you don't know why the left seem to get a higher proportion of postal votes than they receive in person.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
It is, but those attributes are a good start. The vast majority of the criticism she is getting is just uninformed, prejudiced sniping by people who haven't the faintest idea whether she is good at the job because they don't have the faintest idea of the organisational challenges of the job, how much of a mess she inherited, and how hard it is to do anything in the NHS.
And both questions and testimony aren't really helping give anyone any better idea of any of those things.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
It is, but those attributes are a good start. The vast majority of the criticism she is getting is just uninformed, prejudiced sniping by people who haven't the faintest idea whether she is good at the job because they don't have the faintest idea of the organisational challenges of the job, how much of a mess she inherited, and how hard it is to do anything in the NHS.
And both questions and testimony aren't really helping give anyone any better idea of any of those things.
Of course not. It's committee of politicians. Are you new here?
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
OK. In that case what is the point of Dido?
Do you think her sole purpose is test demand projections?
I am not entirely sure what function she serves. Is she?
I'm not even sure what you are asking. Her job is an executive director, not as a statistician.
Testing is turning into a catastrophic failure. The buck stops with her. If her minions are not up to the job she needs new minions. If the new minions are also failing, perhaps she may feel she is not up to the job herself.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
OK. In that case what is the point of Dido?
Do you think her sole purpose is test demand projections?
I am not entirely sure what function she serves. Is she?
I'm not even sure what you are asking. Her job is an executive director, not as a statistician.
Testing is turning into a catastrophic failure. The buck stops with her. If her minions are not up to the job she needs new minions. If the new minions are also failing, perhaps she may feel she is not up to the job herself.
Catastrophic failure? Never before have so many people been tested, and they have committed to continually increasing it. If we had the testing system from elsewhere transposed here it would only be worse.
There's a visible increase in the number of hospitalisations on that graph.
And once again, if you wait till deaths start rising you are too late.
Looking more closely, still small numbers in absolute terms, but the rise is certainly worrying:
twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1306612062785802241
I am not sure the message is getting out there. I have been out and about today, drove past a number of pubs that were rammed*, people very casually wandering around no masks, etc.
* Given it is Thursday afternoon, I presume oldies and / or people still on furlough.
The app is launching next week. How many on here will be downloading it?
We’ve had it on the island for a month or so, and got another government letter exhorting us to install it. But after the fiasco of the last app - which they never directly communicated had been abandoned, I confess I didn’t bother to try out the new one.
The app is launching next week. How many on here will be downloading it?
We’ve had it on the island for a month or so, and got another government letter exhorting us to instal it. But after the fiasco of the last app - which they never directly communicated had been abandoned, I confess I didn’t bother to try out the new one.
Interesting, thanks. It's surprising it wasn't just an update to the existing app you were using.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
OK. In that case what is the point of Dido?
Do you think her sole purpose is test demand projections?
I am not entirely sure what function she serves. Is she?
I'm not even sure what you are asking. Her job is an executive director, not as a statistician.
Testing is turning into a catastrophic failure. The buck stops with her. If her minions are not up to the job she needs new minions. If the new minions are also failing, perhaps she may feel she is not up to the job herself.
Catastrophic failure? Never before have so many people been tested, and they have committed to continually increasing it. If we had the testing system from elsewhere transposed here it would only be worse.
Hancock acknowledging the testing regime is struggling under current demand, suggests to me the five star rating is some way off!
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
That lot resulted in 2,362,631 Trump / 2,189,316 Clinton / 187,345 Someone else
Why do left wing parties in general tend to do better by postal votes and right wing voting in person?
It's the same here, but not so pronounced
It always seems a little suspicious to me.
Remain won the in person vote in 2016. The postals turned it to Leave.
Does that seem suspicious to you?
Well the old tended to vote for Brexit more often, so it makes sense to an extent.
The old also vote more right wing in general, so you'd expect to see the same pattern...but you see the opposite.
Is that true in the UK? The elderly tend to vote by postal vote and are overwhelmingly Tory. On the other hand some minorities who tend to vote Labour also favour postal voting. I would have thought that the former effect would dominate given the numbers involved. Do you have numbers to hand? In the US you often see queues of many hours to vote in Democrat-leaning urban areas owing to underfunding of election machinery which explains why more Democratic voters might prefer to vote by post. I don't think it's a conspiracy.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
Given the choice between extending until 2021 or not and breaking his promise not to have an Irish Sea border and annoying the DUP then yes Boris will probably ask the EU to extend the implementation period.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
OK. In that case what is the point of Dido?
Do you think her sole purpose is test demand projections?
I am not entirely sure what function she serves. Is she?
I'm not even sure what you are asking. Her job is an executive director, not as a statistician.
Testing is turning into a catastrophic failure. The buck stops with her. If her minions are not up to the job she needs new minions. If the new minions are also failing, perhaps she may feel she is not up to the job herself.
Catastrophic failure? Never before have so many people been tested, and they have committed to continually increasing it. If we had the testing system from elsewhere transposed here it would only be worse.
Hancock acknowledging the testing regime is struggling under current demand, suggests to me the five star rating is some way off!
Yeah, but struggling is a far cry from "catastrophic failure", isn't it?
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
It is, but those attributes are a good start. The vast majority of the criticism she is getting is just uninformed, prejudiced sniping by people who haven't the faintest idea whether she is good at the job because they don't have the faintest idea of the organisational challenges of the job, how much of a mess she inherited, and how hard it is to do anything in the NHS.
Surely Richard she's way too naive for the job if she didn't expect a big rise in demand for tests when the schools and wider economy reopened?
Some of PB's superforecasters called that yonks ago.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
Given the choice between extending until 2021 or not and breaking his promise not to have an Irish Sea border and annoying the DUP then yes Boris will probably ask the EU to extend the implementation period.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
Paragraph 1. Johnson has said, and why should we not believe him, that there will be NO extension.
Paragraph 2. You are not normally so silly as to make such a comment.
That Talk of the Sound piece I posted reckons its very easy for a US postal vote to be disqualified, even when it is sent in. The process is actually quite tricky and bureaucratic, and any small mishaps mean you are disenfranchised.
In the school election in New Rochelle run by Cuomo only 17% of unsolicited ballots were ever returned.
Of those, 14% were disqualified.
Only 80% of solicited ballots were returned, if I read that piece right.
OK its a school election but it is clear that, ballots, whether solicited or unsolicited, do not mean votes. Not by a long chalk.
Let's make up some numbers and see what happens.
Suppose 3-in-10 votes this year are by post, and they break 2:1 to Democrats, but 10% of ballots are disqualified.
I think that changes a 50:50 contest to a 49:48 victory for the Republicans.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
OK. In that case what is the point of Dido?
Do you think her sole purpose is test demand projections?
I am not entirely sure what function she serves. Is she?
I'm not even sure what you are asking. Her job is an executive director, not as a statistician.
Testing is turning into a catastrophic failure. The buck stops with her. If her minions are not up to the job she needs new minions. If the new minions are also failing, perhaps she may feel she is not up to the job herself.
Catastrophic failure? Never before have so many people been tested, and they have committed to continually increasing it. If we had the testing system from elsewhere transposed here it would only be worse.
Hancock acknowledging the testing regime is struggling under current demand, suggests to me the five star rating is some way off!
Yeah, but struggling is a far cry from "catastrophic failure", isn't it?
Can we agree that your 'struggling' is my 'catastrophic failure'. Time to go home!
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
It is, but those attributes are a good start. The vast majority of the criticism she is getting is just uninformed, prejudiced sniping by people who haven't the faintest idea whether she is good at the job because they don't have the faintest idea of the organisational challenges of the job, how much of a mess she inherited, and how hard it is to do anything in the NHS.
Surely Richard she's way too naive for the job if she didn't expect a big rise in demand for tests when the schools and wider economy reopened?
Some of PB's superforecasters called that yonks ago.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
Given the choice between extending until 2021 or not and breaking his promise not to have an Irish Sea border and annoying the DUP then yes Boris will probably ask the EU to extend the implementation period.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
Paragraph 1. Johnson has said, and why should we not believe him, that there will be NO extension.
Paragraph 2. You are not normally so silly as to make such a comment.
Boris has also now said there will be no border in the Irish Sea and why should we not believe him
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
Given the choice between extending until 2021 or not and breaking his promise not to have an Irish Sea border and annoying the DUP then yes Boris will probably ask the EU to extend the implementation period.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
Paragraph 1. Johnson has said, and why should we not believe him, that there will be NO extension.
Paragraph 2. You are not normally so silly as to make such a comment.
Boris has also now said there will be no border in the Irish Sea and why should we not believe him
I do believe him, but that means border posts at Lurgan, and some very naughty nationalists will not like that.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
Given the choice between extending until 2021 or not and breaking his promise not to have an Irish Sea border and annoying the DUP then yes Boris will probably ask the EU to extend the implementation period.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
Paragraph 1. Johnson has said, and why should we not believe him, that there will be NO extension.
Paragraph 2. You are not normally so silly as to make such a comment.
Boris has also now said there will be no border in the Irish Sea and why should we not believe him
Because it seems that everything he says is a lie, perhaps?
There's a visible increase in the number of hospitalisations on that graph.
And once again, if you wait till deaths start rising you are too late.
Looking more closely, still small numbers in absolute terms, but the rise is certainly worrying:
twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1306612062785802241
I am not sure the message is getting out there. I have been out and about today, drove past a number of pubs that were rammed*, people very casually wandering around no masks, etc.
* Given it is Thursday afternoon, I presume oldies and / or people still on furlough.
Just passed through Central Newcastle on foot on eve of lockdown. Quiet, plenty of masks. However, very poor social distancing. Many not even making a token effort. Especially in the bank. No staff in masks, casual groups of staff chatting in huddles. Then marching up to greet customers. Many businesses not enforcing masks. Nor track and trace. Seems to be voluntary. Pubs full. No great surprise it's on the rise really.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
Given the choice between extending until 2021 or not and breaking his promise not to have an Irish Sea border and annoying the DUP then yes Boris will probably ask the EU to extend the implementation period.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
Paragraph 1. Johnson has said, and why should we not believe him, that there will be NO extension.
Paragraph 2. You are not normally so silly as to make such a comment.
Boris has also now said there will be no border in the Irish Sea and why should we not believe him
I do believe him, but that means border posts at Lurgan, and some very naughty nationalists will not like that.
There will only be border posts at Lurgan if the EU and Irish Republic build them
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
Given the choice between extending until 2021 or not and breaking his promise not to have an Irish Sea border and annoying the DUP then yes Boris will probably ask the EU to extend the implementation period.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
Paragraph 1. Johnson has said, and why should we not believe him, that there will be NO extension.
Paragraph 2. You are not normally so silly as to make such a comment.
Boris has also now said there will be no border in the Irish Sea and why should we not believe him
Does that include the Irish Sea between Holyhead and Ireland?
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
Given the choice between extending until 2021 or not and breaking his promise not to have an Irish Sea border and annoying the DUP then yes Boris will probably ask the EU to extend the implementation period.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
Paragraph 1. Johnson has said, and why should we not believe him, that there will be NO extension.
Paragraph 2. You are not normally so silly as to make such a comment.
Boris has also now said there will be no border in the Irish Sea and why should we not believe him
I think you've inserted the word 'not' by mistake?
There's a visible increase in the number of hospitalisations on that graph.
And once again, if you wait till deaths start rising you are too late.
Looking more closely, still small numbers in absolute terms, but the rise is certainly worrying:
twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1306612062785802241
I am not sure the message is getting out there. I have been out and about today, drove past a number of pubs that were rammed*, people very casually wandering around no masks, etc.
* Given it is Thursday afternoon, I presume oldies and / or people still on furlough.
Just passed through Central Newcastle on foot on eve of lockdown. Quiet, plenty of masks. However, very poor social distancing. Many not even making a token effort. Especially in the bank. No staff in masks, casual groups of staff chatting in huddles. Then marching up to greet customers. Many businesses not enforcing masks. Nor track and trace. Seems to be voluntary. Pubs full. No great surprise it's on the rise really.
Went to a pub for lunch. I think we were the only people who were masked on entry. The staff weren't. Ate outside, plenty of room between tables. Mostly couples/parties of two. Couple of business meetings, one with two people sharing a laptop.
I don't think that headline is an accurate summary of what the piece says. It makes the very valid point that seeking to oust judicial review is a very bad idea, not least because one day there will be an alternative government in power seeking to do things that you think the court should stop. It also mentions a couple of cases where the courts have read attempted ouster clauses very restrictively and found ways around them. But it doesn't say that it is impossible.
There's a visible increase in the number of hospitalisations on that graph.
And once again, if you wait till deaths start rising you are too late.
Looking more closely, still small numbers in absolute terms, but the rise is certainly worrying:
twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1306612062785802241
I am not sure the message is getting out there. I have been out and about today, drove past a number of pubs that were rammed*, people very casually wandering around no masks, etc.
* Given it is Thursday afternoon, I presume oldies and / or people still on furlough.
Just passed through Central Newcastle on foot on eve of lockdown. Quiet, plenty of masks. However, very poor social distancing. Many not even making a token effort. Especially in the bank. No staff in masks, casual groups of staff chatting in huddles. Then marching up to greet customers. Many businesses not enforcing masks. Nor track and trace. Seems to be voluntary. Pubs full. No great surprise it's on the rise really.
When people wear masks they do not think they have to social distance.
I don't think that headline is an accurate summary of what the piece says. It makes the very valid point that seeking to oust judicial review is a very bad idea, not least because one day there will be an alternative government in power seeking to do things that you think the court should stop. It also mentions a couple of cases where the courts have read attempted ouster clauses very restrictively and found ways around them. But it doesn't say that it is impossible.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
It is, but those attributes are a good start. The vast majority of the criticism she is getting is just uninformed, prejudiced sniping by people who haven't the faintest idea whether she is good at the job because they don't have the faintest idea of the organisational challenges of the job, how much of a mess she inherited, and how hard it is to do anything in the NHS.
And both questions and testimony aren't really helping give anyone any better idea of any of those things.
Of course not. It's committee of politicians. Are you new here?
Didn't they include our own @Tissue_Price ? Show some respect !
That Talk of the Sound piece I posted reckons its very easy for a US postal vote to be disqualified, even when it is sent in. The process is actually quite tricky and bureaucratic, and any small mishaps mean you are disenfranchised.
In the school election in New Rochelle run by Cuomo only 17% of unsolicited ballots were ever returned.
Of those, 14% were disqualified.
Only 80% of solicited ballots were returned, if I read that piece right.
OK its a school election but it is clear that, ballots, whether solicited or unsolicited, do not mean votes. Not by a long chalk.
Let's make up some numbers and see what happens.
Suppose 3-in-10 votes this year are by post, and they break 2:1 to Democrats, but 10% of ballots are disqualified.
I think that changes a 50:50 contest to a 49:48 victory for the Republicans.
And those numbers could be worse for Democrats.
North Carolina provides some actual data on this:.
81005 Accepted 91 Pending 1464 Witness info incomplete 609 Spoiled 5 Signature different 20 Returned undeliverable 46 Pending cure 5 Conflict 7 Accepted - cured 3 Duplicate 1 E-transmission failure
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
It is, but those attributes are a good start. The vast majority of the criticism she is getting is just uninformed, prejudiced sniping by people who haven't the faintest idea whether she is good at the job because they don't have the faintest idea of the organisational challenges of the job, how much of a mess she inherited, and how hard it is to do anything in the NHS.
And both questions and testimony aren't really helping give anyone any better idea of any of those things.
Of course not. It's committee of politicians. Are you new here?
Didn't they include our own @Tissue_Price ? Show some respect !
We should have PMed him to ask about pooled testing!
There are some slightly concerning polls out for Biden today.
First, USC (which called 2016 pretty much spot on) sees Biden drop back to 50% in their daily tracking. He was at 52% a few days ago.
Secondly, while the polls from Monmouth, Kaiser and Suffolk all show Biden ahead in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, the margins are all small.
The pattern that seems to be playing out is that Trump is eating into the DKs/WNVs at the moment, and that's something that I expect to continue through to polling day. The question becomes, can Biden hold on to a c. 50.5%+ share in the polls, because if he can then it's hard (although not impossible) for Trump to win.
The British Judge Eleanor Sharpston QC had obtained an interim injunction against her removal pending determination of her application to remain a judge for the remaining year of her contract. The CJEU decided to recall the interim injunction and then appointed her successor within minutes, all without the troublesome need to inform her or her lawyers of the hearing or giving them any opportunity to be heard.
Describing the CJEU as a court in any conventional sense is an insult to impartial judiciary everywhere. They are a partisan bunch of fanatics with a political purpose. It is not hard to see why the UK government is so unwilling to have them adjudicate anything. Whatever the merits of her case this was utterly disgraceful.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Boris will not extend beyond December 2021 but he would probably extend beyond December 2020 to avoid the Irish Sea border until the internal market bill passes at the end of 2021, especially as on current polling he would likely need the DUP in 2024 to have a chance to stay in power.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Hang on, hang on, I thought the end 2020 deadline was absolutely solid, not just one of those 'do or die' deadlines that Boris routinely forgets about. Are you now saying that some smidgen of reality is leaking in?
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
IIRC the window for extending the transition period more or less without question ended in July. Any future extension has to be agreed by the EU, the EU27 parliaments and any regional parliaments of the same so empowered. I.e. Walloonia can veto the extension if it wants.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
It is, but those attributes are a good start. The vast majority of the criticism she is getting is just uninformed, prejudiced sniping by people who haven't the faintest idea whether she is good at the job because they don't have the faintest idea of the organisational challenges of the job, how much of a mess she inherited, and how hard it is to do anything in the NHS.
And both questions and testimony aren't really helping give anyone any better idea of any of those things.
Of course not. It's committee of politicians. Are you new here?
Didn't they include our own @Tissue_Price ? Show some respect !
We should have PMed him to ask about pooled testing!
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
It is, but those attributes are a good start. The vast majority of the criticism she is getting is just uninformed, prejudiced sniping by people who haven't the faintest idea whether she is good at the job because they don't have the faintest idea of the organisational challenges of the job, how much of a mess she inherited, and how hard it is to do anything in the NHS.
Surely Richard she's way too naive for the job if she didn't expect a big rise in demand for tests when the schools and wider economy reopened?
Some of PB's superforecasters called that yonks ago.
We even had graphs from Europe and Scotland showing exactly that. She's the wrong person for the job. We need someone who understands data modelling to be in charge and a second in command who has got logistics experience. She has neither.
There are some slightly concerning polls out for Biden today.
First, USC (which called 2016 pretty much spot on) sees Biden drop back to 50% in their daily tracking. He was at 52% a few days ago.
Secondly, while the polls from Monmouth, Kaiser and Suffolk all show Biden ahead in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, the margins are all small.
The pattern that seems to be playing out is that Trump is eating into the DKs/WNVs at the moment, and that's something that I expect to continue through to polling day. The question becomes, can Biden hold on to a c. 50.5%+ share in the polls, because if he can then it's hard (although not impossible) for Trump to win.
I think it's more UNC since they show a rolling result day by day are now picking up on trump gaining some points. They were of the high end a week or so ago +12 or so to Biden, to the point where I was seeing them as an outlier. Now they are in with the pack, be interesting to see if they stabilise around 6-8. Shame no more national polls so far today to compare against.
In terms of the swing states AZ is the one for concern, but other recent polls have him a fair bit higher. What I would say the senate results for that pollster (Monmouth) has Kelly only 1% ahead which feels very off when looking at the string showing her had with nearly every other poll recently. Florida seems about right, as with other pollsters showing it is very tight. Wonder if Bloomberg's $100 million surge there will have any affect. NC is actually a good poll for Biden, 3-4% which matches CNN's pool of yesterday however polls were showing it tied or a very sight Trump lead a few days ago, so might be in outlier territory.
There's a visible increase in the number of hospitalisations on that graph.
And once again, if you wait till deaths start rising you are too late.
Looking more closely, still small numbers in absolute terms, but the rise is certainly worrying:
twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1306612062785802241
I am not sure the message is getting out there. I have been out and about today, drove past a number of pubs that were rammed*, people very casually wandering around no masks, etc.
* Given it is Thursday afternoon, I presume oldies and / or people still on furlough.
Just passed through Central Newcastle on foot on eve of lockdown. Quiet, plenty of masks. However, very poor social distancing. Many not even making a token effort. Especially in the bank. No staff in masks, casual groups of staff chatting in huddles. Then marching up to greet customers. Many businesses not enforcing masks. Nor track and trace. Seems to be voluntary. Pubs full. No great surprise it's on the rise really.
When people wear masks they do not think they have to social distance.
The Trump administration is really going all out on the stolen election nonsense. This is the Attorney General of the United States...
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/bill-barr-undermining-election-mail-voting.html ...In recent days, Barr appears to have inched away from his earlier claims that voting by mail was uniquely susceptible to foreign election tampering. Having pressed that particular hypothesis in early June in an interview with the New York Times, then in a July House Judiciary Committee hearing (a hearing in which he also testified he had no reason to believe the election would be rigged), he parroted the president’s unfounded talking points about foreign interference for just mail-in ballots. Barr was asked about it again this month by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, who requested some basis for his now-frequent claims that “a foreign country could send thousands of fake ballots, thousands of fake ballots to people, and it might be impossible to detect.” Barr replied, “I’m basing that—as I’ve said repeatedly, I’m basing that on logic.” Barr continues to insist then that foreign counterfeiting of mail-in ballots is a legitimate threat for which he has no evidence or proof.
But the foreign tampering story is not sufficient to his purposes, and so Barr has deftly turned his sights once again on the enemy within. His newest claim seems to be that it’s Americans, not foreigners, who will steal the 2020 election—by buying, selling, browbeating, and intimidating otherwise good and honest voters who attempt to vote by mail. In that same CNN interview, Barr was testing the new theory: that it would be domestic, not foreign, enemies who will tamper with mail-in-ballots. While he had no idea how often this new vote harvesting thing had occurred (saying it again here: It’s vanishingly rare) Barr asserted that “we indicted someone in Texas” who had stolen 1,700 ballots. “He made them out and voted for the person he wanted to,” he told Blitzer. That claim was also later confirmed as false...
Comments
The old also vote more right wing in general, so you'd expect to see the same pattern...but you see the opposite.
On the topic of unsolicited postal ballots, there is some food for thought here.
That would though of course mean Farage would likely stand Brexit Party candidates in the county and district council elections next May even if it reduces the threat from the SNP at Holyrood
Tom Watson takes job as adviser to Paddy Power and Betfair
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/17/tom-watson-job-adviser-paddy-power-betfair-gambling-former-labour-mp
But anyway, if you're happy I'm happy.
Truth is, the risk and extent of vote-rigging is correlated to the integrity of a country's democratic process and politicians not to the 'left or right' political complexion of the parties involved.
Mind you, I'm not sure that there's any mechanism for extension. Maybe with goodwill from the EU something could be fudged, but if that's what Boris wants then blowing up any goodwill that's left isn't obviously the best way to go about it.
And once again, if you wait till deaths start rising you are too late.
HYUFD has inadvertently started a new Trumpian conspiracy theory.
If the testing turnaround is still increasing, it is quite possible this could be a slightly low estimate.
In the school election in New Rochelle run by Cuomo only 17% of unsolicited ballots were ever returned.
Of those, 14% were disqualified.
Only 80% of solicited ballots were returned, if I read that piece right.
OK its a school election but it is clear that, ballots, whether solicited or unsolicited, do not mean votes. Not by a long chalk.
Maybe it's just magic.
https://twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1306612062785802241
To be fair, the BBC also had Prof. Gupta on Newsnight last night.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1306617085053865985?s=20
* Given it is Thursday afternoon, I presume oldies and / or people still on furlough.
In the US you often see queues of many hours to vote in Democrat-leaning urban areas owing to underfunding of election machinery which explains why more Democratic voters might prefer to vote by post. I don't think it's a conspiracy.
The EU would I am sure be happy to have the UK as a colony for at least another year
Some of PB's superforecasters called that yonks ago.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-head-of-test-and-trace-says-rise-in-demand-for-covid-tests-wasnt-expected-12074297
Paragraph 2. You are not normally so silly as to make such a comment.
Suppose 3-in-10 votes this year are by post, and they break 2:1 to Democrats, but 10% of ballots are disqualified.
I think that changes a 50:50 contest to a 49:48 victory for the Republicans.
And those numbers could be worse for Democrats.
https://twitter.com/joshuarozenberg/status/1306618020740169730?s=21
I don’t really know enough to comment, but Lord Pannick has already defeated the Government twice.
However, very poor social distancing. Many not even making a token effort. Especially in the bank. No staff in masks, casual groups of staff chatting in huddles. Then marching up to greet customers.
Many businesses not enforcing masks. Nor track and trace. Seems to be voluntary. Pubs full. No great surprise it's on the rise really.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1306615229007224833?s=20
It's the fuqwits in Downing Street who negotiated and signed it that apparently didn't know what it meant...
Shall we do it again?
Mostly couples/parties of two. Couple of business meetings, one with two people sharing a laptop.
Its more than a blip now.
Show some respect !
81005 Accepted
91 Pending
1464 Witness info incomplete
609 Spoiled
5 Signature different
20 Returned undeliverable
46 Pending cure
5 Conflict
7 Accepted - cured
3 Duplicate
1 E-transmission failure
So the current disqualification rate is 2.6%
First, USC (which called 2016 pretty much spot on) sees Biden drop back to 50% in their daily tracking. He was at 52% a few days ago.
Secondly, while the polls from Monmouth, Kaiser and Suffolk all show Biden ahead in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, the margins are all small.
The pattern that seems to be playing out is that Trump is eating into the DKs/WNVs at the moment, and that's something that I expect to continue through to polling day. The question becomes, can Biden hold on to a c. 50.5%+ share in the polls, because if he can then it's hard (although not impossible) for Trump to win.
The British Judge Eleanor Sharpston QC had obtained an interim injunction against her removal pending determination of her application to remain a judge for the remaining year of her contract. The CJEU decided to recall the interim injunction and then appointed her successor within minutes, all without the troublesome need to inform her or her lawyers of the hearing or giving them any opportunity to be heard.
Describing the CJEU as a court in any conventional sense is an insult to impartial judiciary everywhere. They are a partisan bunch of fanatics with a political purpose. It is not hard to see why the UK government is so unwilling to have them adjudicate anything. Whatever the merits of her case this was utterly disgraceful.
Has a sadder sentence ever been written ?
I usually go there to avoid them.
In terms of the swing states AZ is the one for concern, but other recent polls have him a fair bit higher. What I would say the senate results for that pollster (Monmouth) has Kelly only 1% ahead which feels very off when looking at the string showing her had with nearly every other poll recently.
Florida seems about right, as with other pollsters showing it is very tight. Wonder if Bloomberg's $100 million surge there will have any affect. NC is actually a good poll for Biden, 3-4% which matches CNN's pool of yesterday however polls were showing it tied or a very sight Trump lead a few days ago, so might be in outlier territory.
This is the Attorney General of the United States...
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/bill-barr-undermining-election-mail-voting.html
...In recent days, Barr appears to have inched away from his earlier claims that voting by mail was uniquely susceptible to foreign election tampering. Having pressed that particular hypothesis in early June in an interview with the New York Times, then in a July House Judiciary Committee hearing (a hearing in which he also testified he had no reason to believe the election would be rigged), he parroted the president’s unfounded talking points about foreign interference for just mail-in ballots. Barr was asked about it again this month by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, who requested some basis for his now-frequent claims that “a foreign country could send thousands of fake ballots, thousands of fake ballots to people, and it might be impossible to detect.” Barr replied, “I’m basing that—as I’ve said repeatedly, I’m basing that on logic.” Barr continues to insist then that foreign counterfeiting of mail-in ballots is a legitimate threat for which he has no evidence or proof.
But the foreign tampering story is not sufficient to his purposes, and so Barr has deftly turned his sights once again on the enemy within. His newest claim seems to be that it’s Americans, not foreigners, who will steal the 2020 election—by buying, selling, browbeating, and intimidating otherwise good and honest voters who attempt to vote by mail. In that same CNN interview, Barr was testing the new theory: that it would be domestic, not foreign, enemies who will tamper with mail-in-ballots. While he had no idea how often this new vote harvesting thing had occurred (saying it again here: It’s vanishingly rare) Barr asserted that “we indicted someone in Texas” who had stolen 1,700 ballots. “He made them out and voted for the person he wanted to,” he told Blitzer. That claim was also later confirmed as false...
https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/mRNA-1273-P301-Protocol.pdf
Commendable openness.
*I suspect I won't crash their server by posting the link.