In fairness isn't a fifth of Scotland under some form of social distancing/lockdown, such is Nipoleon's success?
Don't you understand the rules of the game by now? Anything that goes right in Scotland is the work of the Scottish Government. Anything that goes wrong is the fault of the Tories.
The fact that both administrations have been roughly as useless as each other counts for nothing.
Captain Underpants earlier today was blaming the UK government for the lockdown in the Welsh valleys.
There are some slightly concerning polls out for Biden today.
First, USC (which called 2016 pretty much spot on) sees Biden drop back to 50% in their daily tracking. He was at 52% a few days ago.
Secondly, while the polls from Monmouth, Kaiser and Suffolk all show Biden ahead in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, the margins are all small.
The pattern that seems to be playing out is that Trump is eating into the DKs/WNVs at the moment, and that's something that I expect to continue through to polling day. The question becomes, can Biden hold on to a c. 50.5%+ share in the polls, because if he can then it's hard (although not impossible) for Trump to win.
As we've discussed before, each party could put a pug ape on the ballot paper, and be assured 45%+. Keeping the other side out is what drives most US voters.
In fairness isn't a fifth of Scotland under some form of social distancing/lockdown, such is Nipoleon's success?
Don't you understand the rules of the game by now? Anything that goes right in Scotland is the work of the Scottish Government. Anything that goes wrong is the fault of the Tories.
The fact that both administrations have been roughly as useless as each other counts for nothing.
Gosh, a snarky comment on a SLab photo certainly gets legs and runs on PB (same tediously repetitive course, mind).
'anti-Britishness' or 'anti-Borisness'? The two things aren't the same yet, though we're getting perilously close.
In the event Joe Biden gets elected, you wouldn't consider a British politician taking potshots at him to be anti-American? I'm not sure how many Americans would see the distinction.
It is late in the day, I am tired and I am struggling to compute KP's logic.
No, there is some sense in what he is saying. If the full lockdown didn't clear the problem, then why should half measures, particularly ones widely ignored?
We need clearer methods to make a tolerable life until this is over, ones that are consistent and clear. I really don't want to go back to April again.
I like your interpretation, but that does sound far too academic for KP.
For the retired, or middle aged white collar professionals it is all a bit of a bore, but for many poorer households, scraping by in overcrowded houses, and working in jobs impossible from home, and no financial safety net, it is much, much worse.
I also see that Johnson is no longer trying to flatten the sombrero. We are now flattening the camel's hump.
Presumably a double humped one.
What a shambles.
Quite.
Now, to the next round of measures (because clearly the Government is terrified of the rising case numbers and is reaching the limits of the usefulness of whac-a-mole, because it can't deliver the volume of testing to pursue that strategy.)
The Government has several cards it can plausibly play nationally, before it starts to forcibly close businesses and finish off the economy. That is, I can see us going all the way back to an April-style, near-total lockdown eventually, but that will cause far more damage even than the first one and means the effective end of Johnson's Premiership, so that ought only to come after everything else has been tried.
An obvious place to start is with a nationwide curfew, because this seems to be the new fashion and it hasn't been tried yet. Grassroots sport has been identified as a problem in the North East lockdown, which is almost certainly down to thick as mince football and rugby lads getting wasted together after matches, so I can see team sports being knocked on the head for the duration. Increasingly restrictive and picky mask rules (the daft regulations already applicable in restaurants in Scotland, and quite possibly compulsory rags in all workplaces) seem almost inevitable, and I wouldn't be surprised if it became illegal not to wear one under pretty much all circumstances outside of the home, save for when exercising, within the next month or so.
After that ought really to come a resumption of the order to work from home if possible and the cessation of international travel, but those are both highly embarrassing presentationally so they might dust off the shielding list before that, perhaps with additional categories (say, all over 80s and the morbidly obese) tacked on for good measure. After that comes stay at home advice for all the over 70s, the resumption of blanket bans on visitors to care homes, and finally an end to all social contact outside of the household, except for essential care responsibilities and possibly support bubbles.
If the Government works its way through all those measures and still hasn't achieved the level of suppression that it wants then it will have to decide whether to tolerate that situation, or to destroy both itself and the country by implementing a full-scale shutdown of education and most businesses - because if that happens a second time then nobody can have any confidence that they won't do it a third time, and a fourth, and in regular cycles thereafter until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, which might never happen. So we might as well all slit our wrists or start prepping for civilizational collapse at that juncture.
It's better to let COVID run its course, than go for a second full lockdown.
Bollocks. She's meeting the executive of NI there in an official capacity.
Not the beaming matey "I'm on your side" Biden shtick with a known ex-terrorist leader and apologist.
McGuinness didn't get on the NI Executive because of his charity work. Like it or not, he and Adams were significant political figures in NI politics. Their paths and those of the great and the good would have frequently crossed.
I also see that Johnson is no longer trying to flatten the sombrero. We are now flattening the camel's hump.
Presumably a double humped one.
What a shambles.
Quite.
Now, to the next round of measures (because clearly the Government is terrified of the rising case numbers and is reaching the limits of the usefulness of whac-a-mole, because it can't deliver the volume of testing to pursue that strategy.)
The Government has several cards it can plausibly play nationally, before it starts to forcibly close businesses and finish off the economy. That is, I can see us going all the way back to an April-style, near-total lockdown eventually, but that will cause far more damage even than the first one and means the effective end of Johnson's Premiership, so that ought only to come after everything else has been tried.
An obvious place to start is with a nationwide curfew, because this seems to be the new fashion and it hasn't been tried yet. Grassroots sport has been identified as a problem in the North East lockdown, which is almost certainly down to thick as mince football and rugby lads getting wasted together after matches, so I can see team sports being knocked on the head for the duration. Increasingly restrictive and picky mask rules (the daft regulations already applicable in restaurants in Scotland, and quite possibly compulsory rags in all workplaces) seem almost inevitable, and I wouldn't be surprised if it became illegal not to wear one under pretty much all circumstances outside of the home, save for when exercising, within the next month or so.
After that ought really to come a resumption of the order to work from home if possible and the cessation of international travel, but those are both highly embarrassing presentationally so they might dust off the shielding list before that, perhaps with additional categories (say, all over 80s and the morbidly obese) tacked on for good measure. After that comes stay at home advice for all the over 70s, the resumption of blanket bans on visitors to care homes, and finally an end to all social contact outside of the household, except for essential care responsibilities and possibly support bubbles.
If the Government works its way through all those measures and still hasn't achieved the level of suppression that it wants then it will have to decide whether to tolerate that situation, or to destroy both itself and the country by implementing a full-scale shutdown of education and most businesses - because if that happens a second time then nobody can have any confidence that they won't do it a third time, and a fourth, and in regular cycles thereafter until there's an effective treatment or vaccine, which might never happen. So we might as well all slit our wrists or start prepping for civilizational collapse at that juncture.
It's better to let COVID run its course, than go for a second full lockdown.
We seem to understand it better and have more of a grip on it now.
It is late in the day, I am tired and I am struggling to compute KP's logic.
No, there is some sense in what he is saying. If the full lockdown didn't clear the problem, then why should half measures, particularly ones widely ignored?
We need clearer methods to make a tolerable life until this is over, ones that are consistent and clear. I really don't want to go back to April again.
I like your interpretation, but that does sound far too academic for KP.
For the retired, or middle aged white collar professionals it is all a bit of a bore, but for many poorer households, scraping by in overcrowded houses, and working in jobs impossible from home, and no financial safety net, it is much, much worse.
And jobs that rely on those middle classes going out of their comfortable houses and spending money.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
It is late in the day, I am tired and I am struggling to compute KP's logic.
No, there is some sense in what he is saying. If the full lockdown didn't clear the problem, then why should half measures, particularly ones widely ignored?
We need clearer methods to make a tolerable life until this is over, ones that are consistent and clear. I really don't want to go back to April again.
I like your interpretation, but that does sound far too academic for KP.
For the retired, or middle aged white collar professionals it is all a bit of a bore, but for many poorer households, scraping by in overcrowded houses, and working in jobs impossible from home, and no financial safety net, it is much, much worse.
I understand your point, I am fortunate to reside in rural Glamorgan, so I have had it easy, others haven't. I would nonetheless be surprised if KP was viewing it from your perspective
'anti-Britishness' or 'anti-Borisness'? The two things aren't the same yet, though we're getting perilously close.
In the event Joe Biden gets elected, you wouldn't consider a British politician taking potshots at him to be anti-American? I'm not sure how many Americans would see the distinction.
The British Left's attacks on the Reagan administration in the 1980s were often deemed 'anti-American' by the Thatcherites.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Because it will almost certainly be "education" not education.
I think that goes both ways.
When you try and politicise education you shouldn't be surprised when the other side tries to do the same the other way.
All education is politicised - check out the Texas Board of Education:
In 2010, it was said to be "drafting its own version of American history", including altering school textbooks to remove what it said was a "left-leaning bias" and making changes that are said to have "religious and racial overtones".
For example, the proposed curriculum would downplay Thomas Jefferson's emphasis on the separation of church and state (outlined in his Letter to Danbury Baptists), and would include a greater emphasis on the importance of religion to the founding fathers. Other changes include downplaying Abraham Lincoln's role in the civil war and putting more emphasis on the Confederate leader Jefferson Davis, questioning the Civil Rights Movement in addition to downplaying Martin Luther King Jr.'s legacy, removing such instances and points of history such as downplaying slavery, putting more emphasis on the states rights cause during the Civil War. Critics of the proposed changes believe that such a focus on the religious elements of the founding period could cause teachers to omit lessons on history more pertinent to national standards
Because Texas mandates use of certain books in its schools state wide publishers often find it easier to adopt these "histories" nationally, given the volumes of Texas sales.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
I am genuinely very sorry you feel this way. But I have it on good authority that things are not as desperate as they may seem. Good news is around the corner.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
I have absolutely zero idea why they are running McSally again.
Has she got pictures of Trump with a goat or something?
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Because it will almost certainly be "education" not education.
I think that goes both ways.
When you try and politicise education you shouldn't be surprised when the other side tries to do the same the other way.
All education is politicised - check out the Texas Board of Education:
In 2010, it was said to be "drafting its own version of American history", including altering school textbooks to remove what it said was a "left-leaning bias" and making changes that are said to have "religious and racial overtones".
For example, the proposed curriculum would downplay Thomas Jefferson's emphasis on the separation of church and state (outlined in his Letter to Danbury Baptists), and would include a greater emphasis on the importance of religion to the founding fathers. Other changes include downplaying Abraham Lincoln's role in the civil war and putting more emphasis on the Confederate leader Jefferson Davis, questioning the Civil Rights Movement in addition to downplaying Martin Luther King Jr.'s legacy, removing such instances and points of history such as downplaying slavery, putting more emphasis on the states rights cause during the Civil War. Critics of the proposed changes believe that such a focus on the religious elements of the founding period could cause teachers to omit lessons on history more pertinent to national standards
Because Texas mandates use of certain books in its schools state wide publishers often find it easier to adopt these "histories" nationally, given the volumes of Texas sales.
The Davis comment is interesting.
‘Be very racist because that will mean you throw away your job, get selected for a role you can’t do, make yourself very ill, lose your home and all your possessions, have severe strains on your marriage, watch your children die, and die eking out a living as in effect a comic author.’
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Because it will almost certainly be "education" not education.
I think that goes both ways.
When you try and politicise education you shouldn't be surprised when the other side tries to do the same the other way.
All education is politicised - check out the Texas Board of Education:
In 2010, it was said to be "drafting its own version of American history", including altering school textbooks to remove what it said was a "left-leaning bias" and making changes that are said to have "religious and racial overtones".
For example, the proposed curriculum would downplay Thomas Jefferson's emphasis on the separation of church and state (outlined in his Letter to Danbury Baptists), and would include a greater emphasis on the importance of religion to the founding fathers. Other changes include downplaying Abraham Lincoln's role in the civil war and putting more emphasis on the Confederate leader Jefferson Davis, questioning the Civil Rights Movement in addition to downplaying Martin Luther King Jr.'s legacy, removing such instances and points of history such as downplaying slavery, putting more emphasis on the states rights cause during the Civil War. Critics of the proposed changes believe that such a focus on the religious elements of the founding period could cause teachers to omit lessons on history more pertinent to national standards
Because Texas mandates use of certain books in its schools state wide publishers often find it easier to adopt these "histories" nationally, given the volumes of Texas sales.
Yes, history civics and geography in America are certainly not emphasising the dark side of America. In Georgia, the teaching of the American Civil War had more than a hint of The Noble Cause, and States Rights. The Civil Rights movement was barely taught, but LBJs Great Society and Vietnam War were fairly well covered. This was in the late Seventies and many of our teachers were Vietnam vets, not all of them very positive about it.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
It's better to let COVID run its course, than go for a second full lockdown.
While I understand the thinking behind that sentiment, as a relative of someone whose health was been permanently affected by this virus, I struggle to rationalise it.
Many people have no direct knowledge of the virus and what it can do - tens of thousands have died and there are families who have had to deal with death and suffering.
The counter argument is you could ban road traffic and save thousands of lives lost in traffic-related accidents every year. Well, perhaps but we don't do that because the necessity of our survival depends on the movement of road traffic.
The rationalisation of "allowing COVID to run its course" is an aspect of that though you can't blame those who have either directly experienced the virus or vicariously through a family member being reticent about contracting the virus themselves.
The polarisation between those determined to maintain/restore "normality" whatever the cost and those frankly scared of contracting the virus is creating an unhealthy tension. It's more than "risk segmentation" - it's about how we choose to live. The problem for the Government is it ends up caught between the proverbial rock and the metaphorical hard place.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
Yes, and funnily enough - as a Brit - even I find that a bit over the top.
What I'm referring to is teaching that the founding fathers were all dreadful racists, and the US, its Constitution and its history are nothing to be proud of.
If that becomes a thing then don't be surprised if there's a political move to counter it.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Because it will almost certainly be "education" not education.
I think that goes both ways.
When you try and politicise education you shouldn't be surprised when the other side tries to do the same the other way.
All education is politicised - check out the Texas Board of Education:
In 2010, it was said to be "drafting its own version of American history", including altering school textbooks to remove what it said was a "left-leaning bias" and making changes that are said to have "religious and racial overtones".
For example, the proposed curriculum would downplay Thomas Jefferson's emphasis on the separation of church and state (outlined in his Letter to Danbury Baptists), and would include a greater emphasis on the importance of religion to the founding fathers. Other changes include downplaying Abraham Lincoln's role in the civil war and putting more emphasis on the Confederate leader Jefferson Davis, questioning the Civil Rights Movement in addition to downplaying Martin Luther King Jr.'s legacy, removing such instances and points of history such as downplaying slavery, putting more emphasis on the states rights cause during the Civil War. Critics of the proposed changes believe that such a focus on the religious elements of the founding period could cause teachers to omit lessons on history more pertinent to national standards
Because Texas mandates use of certain books in its schools state wide publishers often find it easier to adopt these "histories" nationally, given the volumes of Texas sales.
I've been musing for the past 57 years about the significance of a "school book depository".
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Because it will almost certainly be "education" not education.
I think that goes both ways.
When you try and politicise education you shouldn't be surprised when the other side tries to do the same the other way.
All education is politicised - check out the Texas Board of Education:
In 2010, it was said to be "drafting its own version of American history", including altering school textbooks to remove what it said was a "left-leaning bias" and making changes that are said to have "religious and racial overtones".
For example, the proposed curriculum would downplay Thomas Jefferson's emphasis on the separation of church and state (outlined in his Letter to Danbury Baptists), and would include a greater emphasis on the importance of religion to the founding fathers. Other changes include downplaying Abraham Lincoln's role in the civil war and putting more emphasis on the Confederate leader Jefferson Davis, questioning the Civil Rights Movement in addition to downplaying Martin Luther King Jr.'s legacy, removing such instances and points of history such as downplaying slavery, putting more emphasis on the states rights cause during the Civil War. Critics of the proposed changes believe that such a focus on the religious elements of the founding period could cause teachers to omit lessons on history more pertinent to national standards
Because Texas mandates use of certain books in its schools state wide publishers often find it easier to adopt these "histories" nationally, given the volumes of Texas sales.
I don't think that's good either.
All education curriculums involve choices (there isn't the time to do everything) but it should aim to tell a fair story of the nation to the children that live in it so they understand it, and it shouldn't seek to divide along political lines - quite the opposite.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
Yes, and funnily enough - as a Brit - even I find that a bit over the top.
What I'm referring to is teaching that the founding fathers were all dreadful racists
‘All’ is an exaggeration.
Alexander Hamilton wasn’t. And Benjamin Franklin sometimes wasn’t.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Looking at the passenger transport numbers updated weekly by the Government.
Network Rail passenger numbers remain at just below 40% of pre-COVID levels and London Underground numbers are 35% on weekdays and 40% at weekends of pre-pandemic levels. Bus passenger numbers are just shy of 60%.
Road traffic has returned to near pre-COVID levels but roads are busier at the weekends than before - good weather or people wanting to go out after a busy week working (sorry, for some on here "working") at home.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
Yes, and funnily enough - as a Brit - even I find that a bit over the top.
What I'm referring to is teaching that the founding fathers were all dreadful racists, and the US, its Constitution and its history are nothing to be proud of.
If that becomes a thing then don't be surprised if there's a political move to counter it.
So you don't think the bit of the Constitution that valued a negro at three fifths of a white person might indicate a teensy weensy bit of racism?
For many years I've argued the the US constitution was rubbish, which is why the states proposed the Bill of Rights, aka the first ten amendments, so quickly.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
Yes, and funnily enough - as a Brit - even I find that a bit over the top.
What I'm referring to is teaching that the founding fathers were all dreadful racists
‘All’ is an exaggeration.
Alexander Hamilton wasn’t. And Benjamin Franklin sometimes wasn’t.
The rest, however...
I wouldn't teach that at all - other than to mention attitudes to race were different back then.
The founding fathers gave good values and principles to all mankind, and that's why we remember them.
They weren't perfect and we can learn from that today but we shouldn't condemn them.
Looking at the passenger transport numbers updated weekly by the Government.
Network Rail passenger numbers remain at just below 40% of pre-COVID levels and London Underground numbers are 35% on weekdays and 40% at weekends of pre-pandemic levels. Bus passenger numbers are just shy of 60%.
Road traffic has returned to near pre-COVID levels but roads are busier at the weekends than before - good weather or people wanting to go out after a busy week working (sorry, for some on here "working") at home.
I got the 15:49 c2c from Fenchurch St today and the bloke on the next seat to me removed his mask to neck a can of Kronenbourg!
At this rate it will be just Devon and Cornwall left free to roam.
The way this year is going there will be a once in a hundred years November heatwave and everyone will descend on the beaches of Cornwall on the same weekend.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Aren't we due to have the reports from Pfizer by the end of next month, and (around that time) Oxford too? That should give us a fairly reliable indication of whether there's any hope. I'm pessimistic about many other things in the world, but not the vaccines.
'anti-Britishness' or 'anti-Borisness'? The two things aren't the same yet, though we're getting perilously close.
In the event Joe Biden gets elected, you wouldn't consider a British politician taking potshots at him to be anti-American? I'm not sure how many Americans would see the distinction.
The British Left's attacks on the Reagan administration in the 1980s were often deemed 'anti-American' by the Thatcherites.
At this rate it will be just Devon and Cornwall left free to roam.
My own theory is that the government will introduce local lockdowns everywhere but say we've not introduced a second national lockdown.
Here is a question.
I live in one local government area and work in another.
If my area is locked down, does that mean I cannot go to work even though my school may be open?
And if the district with my school in is locked down but my home is not, can I still go in to work if the school remains open for key workers and vulnerable families?
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
As yours truly pointed out on previous thred, littering the rural landscape with signage has been a favorite of US right-wingers for decades.
Back in 1996, right-winger won crowded Republican primary for governor (moderate vote was split) and proceeded to blanket the state with her signs. Ended up with whopping 42% of general election vote.
Acres do NOT vote - people DO.
For one thing, you do NOT need hordes of supporters to put up signage. Just a cadre dedicated to posting and maintaining signs, very often on public right-of-ways. Also a few property owners on main roads and strategic corners who will let you put up BIG signs.
Which is why savvy candidates / campaign managers / political hacks AVOID wasting money on signage, as opposed to say TV or direct mail or field workers.
One exception is IF your candidate needs better name recognition (which is NOT Trumpsky's problem!) AND you have a core of active supporters. Then you can work getting signs up in URBAN & SUBURBAN areas, preferably on the lawns of folks who have actually agreed to let you do it.
One final example: in 2019 race for Seattle City Council in my district, one candidate waged an aggressive yard-sign campaign in the primary; based on what I saw she was at least 3rd in the number of signs she put up. Result: she got 3.4% of the vote.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
Yes, and funnily enough - as a Brit - even I find that a bit over the top.
What I'm referring to is teaching that the founding fathers were all dreadful racists
‘All’ is an exaggeration.
Alexander Hamilton wasn’t. And Benjamin Franklin sometimes wasn’t.
The rest, however...
Yes, but ethnic supremacy was pretty much the norm back then, and not just white supremacy, but anglo-protestant supremacy over Catholics and Southern Europeans, who in turn had their own ethnic hierarchies. We can only judge historical figures against their peers. Societies evolve.
I was interested to see how these two Civil War museums integrated, to balance the narratives, and not in a hectoring way:
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Perhaps just objectively study history with a view to establishing the truth?
What you are on about is people making an unnecessary fuss about slightly regrettable but ultimately trivial issues like black slavery and native American dispossession. Just wondering what more-than-countervailing moral good on the part of the USA Trump wants to talk about? In the UK case it is usually (and hilariously) Bishop bloody Wilberforce, but he belongs to us. So what is it?
At this rate it will be just Devon and Cornwall left free to roam.
My own theory is that the government will introduce local lockdowns everywhere but say we've not introduced a second national lockdown.
Here is a question.
I live in one local government area and work in another.
If my area is locked down, does that mean I cannot go to work even though my school may be open?
And if the district with my school in is locked down but my home is not, can I still go in to work if the school remains open for key workers and vulnerable families?
It's a question I asked a few weeks ago.
I've still not had an answer.
The government planners seem to labour under the assumption we all live and work in the same region.
Which is amusing to those of who work in the North West but live in God's Own County of South Yorkshire.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
Yes, and funnily enough - as a Brit - even I find that a bit over the top.
What I'm referring to is teaching that the founding fathers were all dreadful racists, and the US, its Constitution and its history are nothing to be proud of.
If that becomes a thing then don't be surprised if there's a political move to counter it.
So you don't think the bit of the Constitution that valued a negro at three fifths of a white person might indicate a teensy weensy bit of racism?
For many years I've argued the the US constitution was rubbish, which is why the states proposed the Bill of Rights, aka the first ten amendments, so quickly.
At this rate it will be just Devon and Cornwall left free to roam.
My own theory is that the government will introduce local lockdowns everywhere but say we've not introduced a second national lockdown.
Here is a question.
I live in one local government area and work in another.
If my area is locked down, does that mean I cannot go to work even though my school may be open?
And if the district with my school in is locked down but my home is not, can I still go in to work if the school remains open for key workers and vulnerable families?
It is the basic reason why regional lockdown don't work.
The real interest now appears to be in how inventive governments can get in the limitation of personal freedoms that can be removed without (theoretically at least) stopping economic/business transactions.
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
That's more or less my reading of it. Edit: although, of course, you're view is a very Democrat one.
Still doesn't make it a wise or diplomatic thing to do. Behind closed doors or more nuanced in public, "we hope the UK considers its obligations carefully and we look forward to working with it" etc. or similar would have been better.
Keeping his trap shut would have been better. Impertinent old goat.
More Brits get their backs up about this, the better it is politically for Uncle Joe.
SO why don't you try writing a 21st-century version of the Murchison Letter to REALLY smoke him out?
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Aren't we due to have the reports from Pfizer by the end of next month, and (around that time) Oxford too? That should give us a fairly reliable indication of whether there's any hope. I'm pessimistic about many other things in the world, but not the vaccines.
Not just hope. It could lead to very rapid release of vaccines to the initial group (healthcare workers) perhaps as soon as Nov.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Aren't we due to have the reports from Pfizer by the end of next month, and (around that time) Oxford too? That should give us a fairly reliable indication of whether there's any hope. I'm pessimistic about many other things in the world, but not the vaccines.
I've no idea about Pfizer. We do, of course, know all about the latest setback to the Oxford project, where everything stopped because one person involved in the trial got sick. Now, I understand why they stopped, and the lengthy faff that must necessarily follow, but delays like this are why it typically takes about ten years to develop a new vaccine for anything, and why there is no particular reason to imagine that the process won't take that long in this instance. And there's no guarantee that any of these vaccines will ultimately do very much good at all.
I know the researchers have never had so much incentive as they do now (if someone comes up with a silver bullet then they deserve to be handed the Nobel Prize for Medicine unopposed and hosed down with billions and billions of dollars just for extracting us from this endless shitty purgatory,) but the fact remains that no vaccine has ever been developed for any coronavirus, if my recollection is right. Will one magically appear in the timescale needed to prevent, at the very least, our reduction to a psychologically traumatized train wreck of a nation inhabited largely by penniless alcoholics? Colour me sceptical.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Aren't we due to have the reports from Pfizer by the end of next month, and (around that time) Oxford too? That should give us a fairly reliable indication of whether there's any hope. I'm pessimistic about many other things in the world, but not the vaccines.
Not just hope. It could lead to very rapid release of vaccines to the initial group (healthcare workers) perhaps as soon as Nov.
I know - I've been reading your comments!
But if you're leading us up the garden path, know that you will be forced to watch Michael Gove's entire comic output from the early 90s. On repeat
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
Yes, and funnily enough - as a Brit - even I find that a bit over the top.
What I'm referring to is teaching that the founding fathers were all dreadful racists, and the US, its Constitution and its history are nothing to be proud of.
If that becomes a thing then don't be surprised if there's a political move to counter it.
So you don't think the bit of the Constitution that valued a negro at three fifths of a white person might indicate a teensy weensy bit of racism?
For many years I've argued the the US constitution was rubbish, which is why the states proposed the Bill of Rights, aka the first ten amendments, so quickly.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
As yours truly pointed out on previous thred, littering the rural landscape with signage has been a favorite of US right-wingers for decades.
Back in 1996, right-winger won crowded Republican primary for governor (moderate vote was split) and proceeded to blanket the state with her signs. Ended up with whopping 42% of general election vote.
Acres do NOT vote - people DO.
For one thing, you do NOT need hordes of supporters to put up signage. Just a cadre dedicated to posting and maintaining signs, very often on public right-of-ways. Also a few property owners on main roads and strategic corners who will let you put up BIG signs.
Which is why savvy candidates / campaign managers / political hacks AVOID wasting money on signage, as opposed to say TV or direct mail or field workers.
One exception is IF your candidate needs better name recognition (which is NOT Trumpsky's problem!) AND you have a core of active supporters. Then you can work getting signs up in URBAN & SUBURBAN areas, preferably on the lawns of folks who have actually agreed to let you do it.
One final example: in 2019 race for Seattle City Council in my district, one candidate waged an aggressive yard-sign campaign in the primary; based on what I saw she was at least 3rd in the number of signs she put up. Result: she got 3.4% of the vote.
Very interesting, and you may be right but I cannot get away from the thought that if you're an undecided and generally uninterested voter you may end up deciding that as everybody else seems to be voting for Trump, it must be the right thing to do.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Perhaps just objectively study history with a view to establishing the truth?
What you are on about is people making an unnecessary fuss about slightly regrettable but ultimately trivial issues like black slavery and native American dispossession. Just wondering what more-than-countervailing moral good on the part of the USA Trump wants to talk about? In the UK case it is usually (and hilariously) Bishop bloody Wilberforce, but he belongs to us. So what is it?
I don't think History can ever be taught objectively. It is not just a matter of recording facts. The selection and interpretation of those facts is always going to be subjective.
One of my minor pleasures (and not one that Mrs Foxy shares) is to visit other countries national museums and get their countries perspectives on events that I have learned from a British perspective.
Seeing the Irish interpret their war of independence, the displays on the Mau Mau in Nairobi, the History of Barbados and Mauritius, and even the Maori wars have all been illuminating. The Nairobi railway museum is an interesting gem too, to get another perspective.
It's better to let COVID run its course, than go for a second full lockdown.
While I understand the thinking behind that sentiment, as a relative of someone whose health was been permanently affected by this virus, I struggle to rationalise it.
Many people have no direct knowledge of the virus and what it can do - tens of thousands have died and there are families who have had to deal with death and suffering.
The counter argument is you could ban road traffic and save thousands of lives lost in traffic-related accidents every year. Well, perhaps but we don't do that because the necessity of our survival depends on the movement of road traffic.
The rationalisation of "allowing COVID to run its course" is an aspect of that though you can't blame those who have either directly experienced the virus or vicariously through a family member being reticent about contracting the virus themselves.
The polarisation between those determined to maintain/restore "normality" whatever the cost and those frankly scared of contracting the virus is creating an unhealthy tension. It's more than "risk segmentation" - it's about how we choose to live. The problem for the Government is it ends up caught between the proverbial rock and the metaphorical hard place.
I hear what you say, but the necessity of our survival depends upon a functioning economy and social interaction. Business failures and unemployment will also cost lives.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
I have absolutely zero idea why they are running McSally again.
Has she got pictures of Trump with a goat or something?
Methinks RNC and AZ GOP (the realo wing anyway) feared that someone way MORE conservative and LESS electable would end up with the nomination.
IIRC in 2018 McSally did NOT lose by all that much, and has had two years (as appointed Senator) to raise her profile and send LOTS of official mail (at taxpayer expense) to voters.
Problem THIS year, she's up against a better opponent than in 2018.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
You will be getting your shot 3rd week of June next year - give or take.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
Yes, and funnily enough - as a Brit - even I find that a bit over the top.
What I'm referring to is teaching that the founding fathers were all dreadful racists, and the US, its Constitution and its history are nothing to be proud of.
If that becomes a thing then don't be surprised if there's a political move to counter it.
So you don't think the bit of the Constitution that valued a negro at three fifths of a white person might indicate a teensy weensy bit of racism?
For many years I've argued the the US constitution was rubbish, which is why the states proposed the Bill of Rights, aka the first ten amendments, so quickly.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Perhaps just objectively study history with a view to establishing the truth?
What you are on about is people making an unnecessary fuss about slightly regrettable but ultimately trivial issues like black slavery and native American dispossession. Just wondering what more-than-countervailing moral good on the part of the USA Trump wants to talk about? In the UK case it is usually (and hilariously) Bishop bloody Wilberforce, but he belongs to us. So what is it?
I don't think History can ever be taught objectively. It is not just a matter of recording facts. The selection and interpretation of those facts is always going to be subjective.
One of my minor pleasures (and not one that Mrs Foxy shares) is to visit other countries national museums and get their countries perspectives on events that I have learned from a British perspective.
Seeing the Irish interpret their war of independence, the displays on the Mau Mau in Nairobi, the History of Barbados and Mauritius, and even the Maori wars have all been illuminating. The Nairobi railway museum is an interesting gem too, to get another perspective.
Nah, I think that's a cop out. It certainly can be - that's just an excuse people use to push their favourite subjects and angles.
And it's entirely appropriate for Britons to learn history from a British perspective just as it is for other nations to learn it from theirs.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
I went to High School in Atlanta for five years. Let me assure you that American schools are unremittingly patriotic, from the pledge of allegiance to the flag that opens every school day, to the flag lowering ceremony that ends it.
When I went to school in the 40s & 50s near Chicago, classrooms had a US flag, but nobody paid the slightest attention to 'em. We were of course patriotic. I actually spent more time reciting the Boy Scout pledge than singing anthems.
What day do we think Sunak will u-turn on the furlough scheme?
I think it will have to be extended in some form for some industries. Either that or there won't be a theatre or sporting venue that survives to the next Election. You cannot close them down forcibly without providing some sort of support, even if only short time working.
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
That's more or less my reading of it. Edit: although, of course, you're view is a very Democrat one.
Still doesn't make it a wise or diplomatic thing to do. Behind closed doors or more nuanced in public, "we hope the UK considers its obligations carefully and we look forward to working with it" etc. or similar would have been better.
Keeping his trap shut would have been better. Impertinent old goat.
More Brits get their backs up about this, the better it is politically for Uncle Joe.
SO why don't you try writing a 21st-century version of the Murchison Letter to REALLY smoke him out?
Pissing off the Brits is electorally popular in the USA?
What a narrow-minded view.
You know American politics but are as biased as hell.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Yes we forget how red the 2016 county map was, even in New York state, Illinois and rural California, it really was the huge Hillary lead in urban areas which won her the popular vote.
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
What day do we think Sunak will u-turn on the furlough scheme?
I don't think he can.
As someone great once said, 'The problem with socialism Boris Johnson's economics is that you eventually run out of other people's money.'
Don't see how they wont be forced into a u-turn shortly.
They could do something sector-specific for those businesses unable to trade (e.g. nightclubs) or with their capacity so badly reduced by social distancing that they can't break even (e.g. theatres,) but there's no going back to the furlough scheme. Sunak found £300bn down the back of the No.11 sofa once, but he can't keep playing that trick over and over. At some point gilt yields will start to go up, then the Treasury is fucked.
All the Government can now do is tighten the screws in areas like social interaction and masking (and hope that, for example, limiting restaurants to serving only household groups, who can't come anyway unless they agree to wear masks the whole time except when actually putting the food into their mouths, does not simply cause them all to go broke anyway.) If the available measures don't work to their satisfaction then they'll either have to put up with a certain level of disease in circulation - regardless of whether or not this results in mass deaths in care homes and hospitals buckling under the strain - or they'll have to shut down half the economy and bankrupt the country. There are no other choices left.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Perhaps just objectively study history with a view to establishing the truth?
What you are on about is people making an unnecessary fuss about slightly regrettable but ultimately trivial issues like black slavery and native American dispossession. Just wondering what more-than-countervailing moral good on the part of the USA Trump wants to talk about? In the UK case it is usually (and hilariously) Bishop bloody Wilberforce, but he belongs to us. So what is it?
I don't think History can ever be taught objectively. It is not just a matter of recording facts. The selection and interpretation of those facts is always going to be subjective.
One of my minor pleasures (and not one that Mrs Foxy shares) is to visit other countries national museums and get their countries perspectives on events that I have learned from a British perspective.
Seeing the Irish interpret their war of independence, the displays on the Mau Mau in Nairobi, the History of Barbados and Mauritius, and even the Maori wars have all been illuminating. The Nairobi railway museum is an interesting gem too, to get another perspective.
Nah, I think that's a cop out. It certainly can be - that's just an excuse people use to push their favourite subjects and angles.
And it's entirely appropriate for Britons to learn history from a British perspective just as it is for other nations to learn it from theirs.
Of course we should learn from a British perspective, but we shouldn't pretend that it is an objective truth.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Aren't we due to have the reports from Pfizer by the end of next month, and (around that time) Oxford too? That should give us a fairly reliable indication of whether there's any hope. I'm pessimistic about many other things in the world, but not the vaccines.
Not just hope. It could lead to very rapid release of vaccines to the initial group (healthcare workers) perhaps as soon as Nov.
I know - I've been reading your comments!
But if you're leading us up the garden path, know that you will be forced to watch Michael Gove's entire comic output from the early 90s. On repeat
It is always possible that along the information chain someone has their reasons for yanking a chain. But it feels otherwise.
Robert S has written in the past about how even an imperfect vaccine, that merely halves R and the CFR changes the world. So long as such a vaccine is sufficiently safe for mass rollout then that seems a comfortable goal.
If I hear anything to overturn the bullishness I shall let you know. It’s not impossible there are leaks which confirm the optimism sooner than 5 weeks of course but not long to wait anyway.
If Boris does not regain his mojo then Xmas will still be drab of course, as it’s going to take a while to roll things out to the wider public.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
As yours truly pointed out on previous thred, littering the rural landscape with signage has been a favorite of US right-wingers for decades.
Back in 1996, right-winger won crowded Republican primary for governor (moderate vote was split) and proceeded to blanket the state with her signs. Ended up with whopping 42% of general election vote.
Acres do NOT vote - people DO.
For one thing, you do NOT need hordes of supporters to put up signage. Just a cadre dedicated to posting and maintaining signs, very often on public right-of-ways. Also a few property owners on main roads and strategic corners who will let you put up BIG signs.
Which is why savvy candidates / campaign managers / political hacks AVOID wasting money on signage, as opposed to say TV or direct mail or field workers.
One exception is IF your candidate needs better name recognition (which is NOT Trumpsky's problem!) AND you have a core of active supporters. Then you can work getting signs up in URBAN & SUBURBAN areas, preferably on the lawns of folks who have actually agreed to let you do it.
One final example: in 2019 race for Seattle City Council in my district, one candidate waged an aggressive yard-sign campaign in the primary; based on what I saw she was at least 3rd in the number of signs she put up. Result: she got 3.4% of the vote.
Very interesting, and you may be right but I cannot get away from the thought that if you're an undecided and generally uninterested voter you may end up deciding that as everybody else seems to be voting for Trump, it must be the right thing to do.
You may have a point. And certainly the idea is to give the impression that "everyone" is for [fill in the blank],
However, most folks - even lower turnout, lower info voters - need a BIT more than a bunch of signs to decide their vote. AND tends to be even LESS effective in a two-horse race (which 2020 general is, with due respect to Kanye West, etc.) than in a crowded primary.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Perhaps just objectively study history with a view to establishing the truth?
What you are on about is people making an unnecessary fuss about slightly regrettable but ultimately trivial issues like black slavery and native American dispossession. Just wondering what more-than-countervailing moral good on the part of the USA Trump wants to talk about? In the UK case it is usually (and hilariously) Bishop bloody Wilberforce, but he belongs to us. So what is it?
I don't think History can ever be taught objectively. It is not just a matter of recording facts. The selection and interpretation of those facts is always going to be subjective.
One of my minor pleasures (and not one that Mrs Foxy shares) is to visit other countries national museums and get their countries perspectives on events that I have learned from a British perspective.
Seeing the Irish interpret their war of independence, the displays on the Mau Mau in Nairobi, the History of Barbados and Mauritius, and even the Maori wars have all been illuminating. The Nairobi railway museum is an interesting gem too, to get another perspective.
I thought the Museum of Occupation in Riga was fascinating. I had been unaware of the horrors that were inflicted on the Baltic States in 1939-40. I feel for anyone who had to choose between Nazis and Communists in Eastern Europe. Even if you decided that the Communists were on balance, less bad, it's very much a choice between Morgoth and Sauron.
History writing is full of bias, as I've discovered doing my MA. I think all that an honest historian can do is to acknowledge those facts which conflict with the case he is making, and then seek to explain them.
My own theory is that the government will introduce local lockdowns everywhere but say we've not introduced a second national lockdown.
As long as one local area somewhere in the country isn't locked down then it's not a de facto national lockdown (or something).
(to Dictaphone) New book idea. Hunger Games style - all local authorities select one champion to do battle to the death. The winner gains freedom for their area to go about their daily lives in a normal, non-covid way...UNTIL THE NEXT TOURNAMENT.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
You will be getting your shot 3rd week of June next year - give or take.
Comments
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1302474938440445952?s=09
For the retired, or middle aged white collar professionals it is all a bit of a bore, but for many poorer households, scraping by in overcrowded houses, and working in jobs impossible from home, and no financial safety net, it is much, much worse.
Next week it will be "Two weeks ago I asked the PM about testing....."
When you try and politicise education you shouldn't be surprised when the other side tries to do the same the other way.
Mercifully deaths seem to be lower too.
You make him sound like Nicola Sturgeon when the correct comparison is Hugo Chavez.
Listening to KP you can understand why most of his team mates thoughts he was a tosser.
In 2010, it was said to be "drafting its own version of American history", including altering school textbooks to remove what it said was a "left-leaning bias" and making changes that are said to have "religious and racial overtones".
For example, the proposed curriculum would downplay Thomas Jefferson's emphasis on the separation of church and state (outlined in his Letter to Danbury Baptists), and would include a greater emphasis on the importance of religion to the founding fathers. Other changes include downplaying Abraham Lincoln's role in the civil war and putting more emphasis on the Confederate leader Jefferson Davis, questioning the Civil Rights Movement in addition to downplaying Martin Luther King Jr.'s legacy, removing such instances and points of history such as downplaying slavery, putting more emphasis on the states rights cause during the Civil War. Critics of the proposed changes believe that such a focus on the religious elements of the founding period could cause teachers to omit lessons on history more pertinent to national standards
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Education_Agency#Curriculum_controversies
Because Texas mandates use of certain books in its schools state wide publishers often find it easier to adopt these "histories" nationally, given the volumes of Texas sales.
I would take KP and Warne over those any day, they actually have a clue about the games, especially T20.
‘Be very racist because that will mean you throw away your job, get selected for a role you can’t do, make yourself very ill, lose your home and all your possessions, have severe strains on your marriage, watch your children die, and die eking out a living as in effect a comic author.’
Could be a winner as an anti-racism message...
Many people have no direct knowledge of the virus and what it can do - tens of thousands have died and there are families who have had to deal with death and suffering.
The counter argument is you could ban road traffic and save thousands of lives lost in traffic-related accidents every year. Well, perhaps but we don't do that because the necessity of our survival depends on the movement of road traffic.
The rationalisation of "allowing COVID to run its course" is an aspect of that though you can't blame those who have either directly experienced the virus or vicariously through a family member being reticent about contracting the virus themselves.
The polarisation between those determined to maintain/restore "normality" whatever the cost and those frankly scared of contracting the virus is creating an unhealthy tension. It's more than "risk segmentation" - it's about how we choose to live. The problem for the Government is it ends up caught between the proverbial rock and the metaphorical hard place.
What I'm referring to is teaching that the founding fathers were all dreadful racists, and the US, its Constitution and its history are nothing to be proud of.
If that becomes a thing then don't be surprised if there's a political move to counter it.
All education curriculums involve choices (there isn't the time to do everything) but it should aim to tell a fair story of the nation to the children that live in it so they understand it, and it shouldn't seek to divide along political lines - quite the opposite.
Alexander Hamilton wasn’t. And Benjamin Franklin sometimes wasn’t.
The rest, however...
Network Rail passenger numbers remain at just below 40% of pre-COVID levels and London Underground numbers are 35% on weekdays and 40% at weekends of pre-pandemic levels. Bus passenger numbers are just shy of 60%.
Road traffic has returned to near pre-COVID levels but roads are busier at the weekends than before - good weather or people wanting to go out after a busy week working (sorry, for some on here "working") at home.
For many years I've argued the the US constitution was rubbish, which is why the states proposed the Bill of Rights, aka the first ten amendments, so quickly.
The founding fathers gave good values and principles to all mankind, and that's why we remember them.
They weren't perfect and we can learn from that today but we shouldn't condemn them.
I think we all understand that.
I live in one local government area and work in another.
If my area is locked down, does that mean I cannot go to work even though my school may be open?
And if the district with my school in is locked down but my home is not, can I still go in to work if the school remains open for key workers and vulnerable families?
Back in 1996, right-winger won crowded Republican primary for governor (moderate vote was split) and proceeded to blanket the state with her signs. Ended up with whopping 42% of general election vote.
Acres do NOT vote - people DO.
For one thing, you do NOT need hordes of supporters to put up signage. Just a cadre dedicated to posting and maintaining signs, very often on public right-of-ways. Also a few property owners on main roads and strategic corners who will let you put up BIG signs.
Which is why savvy candidates / campaign managers / political hacks AVOID wasting money on signage, as opposed to say TV or direct mail or field workers.
One exception is IF your candidate needs better name recognition (which is NOT Trumpsky's problem!) AND you have a core of active supporters. Then you can work getting signs up in URBAN & SUBURBAN areas, preferably on the lawns of folks who have actually agreed to let you do it.
One final example: in 2019 race for Seattle City Council in my district, one candidate waged an aggressive yard-sign campaign in the primary; based on what I saw she was at least 3rd in the number of signs she put up. Result: she got 3.4% of the vote.
I was interested to see how these two Civil War museums integrated, to balance the narratives, and not in a hectoring way:
https://youtu.be/9Y6luq3aUvc
What you are on about is people making an unnecessary fuss about slightly regrettable but ultimately trivial issues like black slavery and native American dispossession. Just wondering what more-than-countervailing moral good on the part of the USA Trump wants to talk about? In the UK case it is usually (and hilariously) Bishop bloody Wilberforce, but he belongs to us. So what is it?
I've still not had an answer.
The government planners seem to labour under the assumption we all live and work in the same region.
Which is amusing to those of who work in the North West but live in God's Own County of South Yorkshire.
https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1306674366684389377?s=19
As someone great once said, 'The problem with socialism Boris Johnson's economics is that you eventually run out of other people's money.'
SO why don't you try writing a 21st-century version of the Murchison Letter to REALLY smoke him out?
I know the researchers have never had so much incentive as they do now (if someone comes up with a silver bullet then they deserve to be handed the Nobel Prize for Medicine unopposed and hosed down with billions and billions of dollars just for extracting us from this endless shitty purgatory,) but the fact remains that no vaccine has ever been developed for any coronavirus, if my recollection is right. Will one magically appear in the timescale needed to prevent, at the very least, our reduction to a psychologically traumatized train wreck of a nation inhabited largely by penniless alcoholics? Colour me sceptical.
But if you're leading us up the garden path, know that you will be forced to watch Michael Gove's entire comic output from the early 90s. On repeat
Has Morris Dancer been teaching her history?
One of my minor pleasures (and not one that Mrs Foxy shares) is to visit other countries national museums and get their countries perspectives on events that I have learned from a British perspective.
Seeing the Irish interpret their war of independence, the displays on the Mau Mau in Nairobi, the History of Barbados and Mauritius, and even the Maori wars have all been illuminating. The Nairobi railway museum is an interesting gem too, to get another perspective.
IIRC in 2018 McSally did NOT lose by all that much, and has had two years (as appointed Senator) to raise her profile and send LOTS of official mail (at taxpayer expense) to voters.
Problem THIS year, she's up against a better opponent than in 2018.
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1306659625211760646
And it's entirely appropriate for Britons to learn history from a British perspective just as it is for other nations to learn it from theirs.
What a narrow-minded view.
You know American politics but are as biased as hell.
https://twitter.com/GunBlom/status/1283356565924388865?s=20
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
All the Government can now do is tighten the screws in areas like social interaction and masking (and hope that, for example, limiting restaurants to serving only household groups, who can't come anyway unless they agree to wear masks the whole time except when actually putting the food into their mouths, does not simply cause them all to go broke anyway.) If the available measures don't work to their satisfaction then they'll either have to put up with a certain level of disease in circulation - regardless of whether or not this results in mass deaths in care homes and hospitals buckling under the strain - or they'll have to shut down half the economy and bankrupt the country. There are no other choices left.
Robert S has written in the past about how even an imperfect vaccine, that merely halves R and the CFR changes the world. So long as such a vaccine is sufficiently safe for mass rollout then that seems a comfortable goal.
If I hear anything to overturn the bullishness I shall let you know. It’s not impossible there are leaks which confirm the optimism sooner than 5 weeks of course but not long to wait anyway.
If Boris does not regain his mojo then Xmas will still be drab of course, as it’s going to take a while to roll things out to the wider public.
However, most folks - even lower turnout, lower info voters - need a BIT more than a bunch of signs to decide their vote. AND tends to be even LESS effective in a two-horse race (which 2020 general is, with due respect to Kanye West, etc.) than in a crowded primary.
History writing is full of bias, as I've discovered doing my MA. I think all that an honest historian can do is to acknowledge those facts which conflict with the case he is making, and then seek to explain them.
Supt Jane Higham revealed that police community support officers will be heading to ‘large retail premises’ in Tameside.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/police-officers-visit-supermarkets-ikea-18953220
(to Dictaphone) New book idea. Hunger Games style - all local authorities select one champion to do battle to the death. The winner gains freedom for their area to go about their daily lives in a normal, non-covid way...UNTIL THE NEXT TOURNAMENT.
Book name is THE RULE OF SIX.