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WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets – Trump punters should go for

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 17 in General
imageWH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets – Trump punters should go for Michigan or Wisconsin – politicalbetting.com

As I write (1100 BST) quite a gap in the betting value has developed between the Betfair exchange odds on the national party of the next president market and what is available in the key states that will decide this election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    Premier
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    Premier?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096
    Segunda
  • 'Why did you post this?'

    'Oh, no reason..'

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,891
    edited September 17
    A spread between the state markets and the national markets is a classic sign of Stupid Person Money at work, if it's not big enough to arb then just take the Stupid Person Money.
  • Trump doesn't need to win all 3 states.

    He can get away with winning 1 out of 3 providing he holds on to Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915

    A spread between the state markets and the national markets is a classic sign of Stupid Person Money at work, if it's not big enough to arb then just take the Stupid Person Money.

    I prefer the 6/1 still available on Trump getting 270-299 electoral college votes to any of these particular state bets.

    It's not only a better hedge if you're deeply into a Biden win, but probably also easier to lay at a considerable profit on election night if things start trending Trump's way, but you're not quite sure where it will end up.

    Thoughts ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915

    Trump doesn't need to win all 3 states.

    He can get away with winning 1 out of 3 providing he holds on to Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.

    Though at the moment, he appears more likely to lose Arizona than Pennsylvania ?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,371
    edited September 17
    from header:

    "For there is almost no way that Trump can hang on unless he holds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin"

    This is very wrong.

    Trump only has to hold on to ONE of these states (plus his other 2016 states). Pennsylvania at the moment is looking like the weakest link. I don't see any discrepancy between those state markets and the national markets.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,033

    'Why did you post this?'

    'Oh, no reason..'

    Ho hum! Thanks.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,891
    Nigelb said:

    A spread between the state markets and the national markets is a classic sign of Stupid Person Money at work, if it's not big enough to arb then just take the Stupid Person Money.

    I prefer the 6/1 still available on Trump getting 270-299 electoral college votes to any of these particular state bets.

    It's not only a better hedge if you're deeply into a Biden win, but probably also easier to lay at a considerable profit on election night if things start trending Trump's way, but you're not quite sure where it will end up.

    Thoughts ?
    Agree, especially as Trump can potentially hang on with just PA.
  • According to captain underpants, Its the UK governments fault Welsh valleys covid problem...if Wales were doing better i am sure he would be claiming it was because of the Welsh government.

    BBC News - Coronavirus: Rhondda Cynon Taf lockdown 'frustration'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54180450
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    edited September 17
    I don't buy the whole "The house isn't possible for the GOP to win" that we've seen on previous threads.

    I've looked, and the 218th seat in 2016 was Michigan-11. The GOP won that by 12.7% with a 1.1% lead in the generic vote nationally; so 11.6% lean to the GOP.
    The 218th seat in 2018 was California-10. The GOP lost that by 4.6% and were 8.6% behind in the generic vote; so there was still a 4% House lean to the GOP.

    There's another complicating factor in that generic vote and presidential vote don't entirely match but Ryan outperformed Trump by 3.2% in 2016 - as to how that shakes out it's not entirely clear.

    So with no redistricting since 2016 or 2018 taking place, we can't be sure of the 2020 House lean as a prior - but it's a stretch to imagine it'll disappear completely for the GOP - and with that it's a huge stretch to somehow think the House is unwinnable for the GOP.

    If you're going to go with that prior, you might as well write off Trump as well.

    For there is almost no way that Trump can hang on unless he holds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin

    This is completely wrong, Biden definitely needs to win either Michigan and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania should be correlated with national odds - Biden does have the Arizona and NE-2 or Florida paths mind.

    Biden needs MI, WI
    And one of {PA, AZ + NE-2, FL}
  • RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,831
    Nigelb said:

    A spread between the state markets and the national markets is a classic sign of Stupid Person Money at work, if it's not big enough to arb then just take the Stupid Person Money.

    I prefer the 6/1 still available on Trump getting 270-299 electoral college votes to any of these particular state bets.

    It's not only a better hedge if you're deeply into a Biden win, but probably also easier to lay at a considerable profit on election night if things start trending Trump's way, but you're not quite sure where it will end up.

    Thoughts ?
    Looks like good odds to me. The reason is Trump got 306 EC votes last time. The only realistic slippage which keeps him at 300+ is the Maine second district. So the chances of him overshooting th 270-299 range are slim.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396
    edited September 17
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't buy the whole "The house isn't possible for the GOP to win" that we've seen on previous threads.

    I've looked, and the 218th seat in 2016 was Michigan-11. The GOP won that by 12.7% with a 1.1% lead in the generic vote nationally; so 11.6% lean to the GOP.
    The 218th seat in 2018 was California-10. The GOP lost that by 4.6% and were 8.6% behind in the generic vote; so there was still a 4% House lean to the GOP.

    There's another complicating factor in that generic vote and presidential vote don't entirely match but Ryan outperformed Trump by 3.2% in 2016 - as to how that shakes out it's not entirely clear.

    So with no redistricting since 2016 or 2018 taking place, we can't be sure of the 2020 House lean as a prior - but it's a stretch to imagine it'll disappear completely for the GOP - and with that it's a huge stretch to somehow think the House is unwinnable for the GOP.

    If you're going to go with that prior, you might as well write off Trump as well.

    Yeah, I see the potential for big gains for the GOP.

    People are treating things like Scotland post 2015. They saw 56 SNP seats and went "Well that's Scotland soliudly SNP for ever now" and ignored both that those gains were made on enormous swings and that many of those seats were now very marginal.

    This is what happened in 2018. The Dems got some huge swings and those seats are now marginal seats.

  • Sounds like the man from delmonte, i mean Deloitte, needs a call to come back and sort out the testing again.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,774
    edited September 17
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    The horror! How dare they be enjoying themself!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    Where is Hancock?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135
    Stocky said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    The horror! How dare they be enjoying themself!
    Replying to OldLivingBoy's comment where they were wondering why anyone in their right mind would be doing such a thing in the middle of a global pandemic.
  • I'm getting the bluebottles congregating around the corpse of SLab buzz.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,831
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    Holidaying in the Alps in September is totally different from a skiing holiday in March in terms of virus spreading activity. Plus the Italian and Austrian apls are no longer a corona hot spot.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,042
    edited September 17
    Scott_xP said:
    Boris needs to explain to them that you can't just pass domestic laws and expect to override internationally binding agreements.
  • RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    The horror! How dare they be enjoying themself!
    Replying to OldLivingBoy's comment where they were wondering why anyone in their right mind would be doing such a thing in the middle of a global pandemic.
    The Icelandic approach seems a very sensible halfway house. Airport test on arrival, another test after 5 days. Quarantine inbetween the two tests.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    Stocky said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    The horror! How dare they be enjoying themself!
    No problem with them going.
    But must some whinge so extensively when they return and find the new situation inconvenient?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 17
    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    Holidaying in the Alps in September is totally different from a skiing holiday in March in terms of virus spreading activity. Plus the Italian and Austrian apls are no longer a corona hot spot.
    I said that the government should be ruling out this for the winter already. Instead they will wait and wait and wait, then when we have imported a 1000 cases, take action.

    Give everybody certainty. Don't go booking these holidays, and if you do its 2 week quarantine afterwards.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    dixiedean said:

    Where is Hancock?

    in the HoC annoucing lockdowns in the NE
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Where is Hancock?

    in the HoC annoucing lockdowns in the NE
    He can't win, can he? :D
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Where is Hancock?

    in the HoC annoucing lockdowns in the NE
    Yeah. He was a bit later than billed. I wanted to hear before I have to go to work.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140

    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    Holidaying in the Alps in September is totally different from a skiing holiday in March in terms of virus spreading activity. Plus the Italian and Austrian apls are no longer a corona hot spot.
    I said that the government should be ruling out this for the winter already. Instead they will wait and wait and wait, then when we have imported a 1000 cases, take action.
    Its not even that its 1000 cases that is the problem. The problem is that those 1000 (or whatever figure) are scattered around the country fairly randomly and reintroduce the virus to areas practically clear of it. The reluctance of many of the more affluent in our society to accept that the world has changed is deeply frustrating.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Where is Hancock?

    in the HoC annoucing lockdowns in the NE
    Yeah. He was a bit later than billed. I wanted to hear before I have to go to work.
    That was because JRM was taking questions before, and being (who could have foreseen such a thing?) a pompous windbag.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    edited September 17
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't buy the whole "The house isn't possible for the GOP to win" that we've seen on previous threads.

    I've looked, and the 218th seat in 2016 was Michigan-11. The GOP won that by 12.7% with a 1.1% lead in the generic vote nationally; so 11.6% lean to the GOP.
    The 218th seat in 2018 was California-10. The GOP lost that by 4.6% and were 8.6% behind in the generic vote; so there was still a 4% House lean to the GOP.

    There's another complicating factor in that generic vote and presidential vote don't entirely match but Ryan outperformed Trump by 3.2% in 2016 - as to how that shakes out it's not entirely clear.

    So with no redistricting since 2016 or 2018 taking place, we can't be sure of the 2020 House lean as a prior - but it's a stretch to imagine it'll disappear completely for the GOP - and with that it's a huge stretch to somehow think the House is unwinnable for the GOP.

    If you're going to go with that prior, you might as well write off Trump as well.

    Yeah, I see the potential for big gains for the GOP.

    People are treating things like Scotland post 2015. They saw 56 SNP seats and went "Well that's Scotland soliudly SNP for ever now" and ignored both that those gains were made on enormous swings and that many of those seats were now very marginal.

    This is what happened in 2018. The Dems got some huge swings and those seats are now marginal seats.

    I think the Dems will keep the House actually, but 4-1 was too big to miss.

    USC Dornsife today has {Biden + Dems 50%}, {Trump 44%/ GOP 46%}. Which is nice if you're on the GOP for the House and Biden for the presidency.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140



    He didn't have Netflix and the Internet though..
    Genuine LOL
  • Clever idea to have people call 111 first rather than just rock up at A&E. Hope that is made permanent.
  • DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    Holidaying in the Alps in September is totally different from a skiing holiday in March in terms of virus spreading activity. Plus the Italian and Austrian apls are no longer a corona hot spot.
    I said that the government should be ruling out this for the winter already. Instead they will wait and wait and wait, then when we have imported a 1000 cases, take action.
    Its not even that its 1000 cases that is the problem. The problem is that those 1000 (or whatever figure) are scattered around the country fairly randomly and reintroduce the virus to areas practically clear of it. The reluctance of many of the more affluent in our society to accept that the world has changed is deeply frustrating.
    Absolutely. We should be proceeding with actions / plans based upon reasonable worst case scenario i.e. no vaccine, widespread high level of covid across europe this winter. And tell people now...for no other reason, than i don't have to listen to bloody idiots screaming to the media, I didn't know, its not fair, i have lost my holidays in Morzine, etc etc etc
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't buy the whole "The house isn't possible for the GOP to win" that we've seen on previous threads.

    I've looked, and the 218th seat in 2016 was Michigan-11. The GOP won that by 12.7% with a 1.1% lead in the generic vote nationally; so 11.6% lean to the GOP.
    The 218th seat in 2018 was California-10. The GOP lost that by 4.6% and were 8.6% behind in the generic vote; so there was still a 4% House lean to the GOP.

    There's another complicating factor in that generic vote and presidential vote don't entirely match but Ryan outperformed Trump by 3.2% in 2016 - as to how that shakes out it's not entirely clear.

    So with no redistricting since 2016 or 2018 taking place, we can't be sure of the 2020 House lean as a prior - but it's a stretch to imagine it'll disappear completely for the GOP - and with that it's a huge stretch to somehow think the House is unwinnable for the GOP.

    If you're going to go with that prior, you might as well write off Trump as well.

    Yeah, I see the potential for big gains for the GOP.

    People are treating things like Scotland post 2015. They saw 56 SNP seats and went "Well that's Scotland soliudly SNP for ever now" and ignored both that those gains were made on enormous swings and that many of those seats were now very marginal.

    This is what happened in 2018. The Dems got some huge swings and those seats are now marginal seats.

    I think the Dems will keep the House actually, but 4-1 was too big to miss.

    USC Dornsife today has {Biden + Dems 50%}, {Trump 44%/ GOP 46%}. Which is nice if you're on the GOP for the House and Biden for the presidency.
    Yeah, it's the people who are tipping Trump to win the Presidency but not the GOP to take the house when you could get 4-1 on the latter that you have to give the side eye to.

    The GOP are going to outperform Trump in national vote share.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,831

    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    Holidaying in the Alps in September is totally different from a skiing holiday in March in terms of virus spreading activity. Plus the Italian and Austrian apls are no longer a corona hot spot.
    I said that the government should be ruling out this for the winter already. Instead they will wait and wait and wait, then when we have imported a 1000 cases, take action.

    Give everybody certainty. Don't go booking these holidays, and if you do its 2 week quarantine afterwards.
    I think this is a good idea, at least for the UK. It would not have to be an outright ban, but an official "the Home Office advises against...". That would make it difficult to get health insurance, which is pretty important for a skiing holiday.

    If it turns out that neither winter nor ski resorts lead to increased hospital admissions, then it would be easy to lift the ban early in the season.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Just sitting down to a hearty lunch in a mountain hutte.

    I think you'll find there is enough of the virus here already.

    Following your and Mystic's logic, we should stop people travelling to or from the North, very dangerous. Or South Wales. Stop all sport; both participating and spectating are unnecessary risks. Ban all non-essential shopping; going out and mixing with others just to buy something you don't need - how selfish is that?

    Indeed unless you are a key worker you don't need to leave your town. Or street. Or house. Just stay at home.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,287

    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    Holidaying in the Alps in September is totally different from a skiing holiday in March in terms of virus spreading activity. Plus the Italian and Austrian apls are no longer a corona hot spot.
    I said that the government should be ruling out this for the winter already. Instead they will wait and wait and wait, then when we have imported a 1000 cases, take action.

    Give everybody certainty. Don't go booking these holidays, and if you do its 2 week quarantine afterwards.
    Just as long as the quarantine, like now, is a joke that you can ignore if you want.
  • Fishing said:

    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Some on PB are on holiday in the Alps as we speak!
    Holidaying in the Alps in September is totally different from a skiing holiday in March in terms of virus spreading activity. Plus the Italian and Austrian apls are no longer a corona hot spot.
    I said that the government should be ruling out this for the winter already. Instead they will wait and wait and wait, then when we have imported a 1000 cases, take action.

    Give everybody certainty. Don't go booking these holidays, and if you do its 2 week quarantine afterwards.
    Just as long as the quarantine, like now, is a joke that you can ignore if you want.
    You can only ignore it if you want to break the law.

    If you want to break the law, you can ignore almost any law.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915

    Scott_xP said:
    Boris needs to explain to them that you can't just pass domestic laws and expect to override internationally binding agreements.
    First he would need to understand that himself.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,596
    Perfect.....the "quiet man" has opened his trap......

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Just sitting down to a hearty lunch in a mountain hutte.

    I think you'll find there is enough of the virus here already.

    Following your and Mystic's logic, we should stop people travelling to or from the North, very dangerous. Or South Wales. Stop all sport; both participating and spectating are unnecessary risks. Ban all non-essential shopping; going out and mixing with others just to buy something you don't need - how selfish is that?

    Indeed unless you are a key worker you don't need to leave your town. Or street. Or house. Just stay at home.

    Indeed. We are increasingly seeing such restrictions in the new local lockdowns for good and obvious reasons.

    Enjoy your lunch.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    Scott_xP said:
    More to the point - Doesn't the Mail know that there is no punctuation in UK?
  • Scott_xP said:
    It's the fantasy collapsing, as so many of us said.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,161

    I'm getting the bluebottles congregating around the corpse of SLab buzz.

    I appreciate that the hard line Nats on here haven't a good word for Starmer. But plenty of the people you purport to speak for do.

    Opinium, 9th September:
    "To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way that Keir Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party".

    SNP Voters: Approve 28%, Disapprove 25%, Net +3%

    All Scottish Voters: Approve 34%, Disapprove 26%, Net +8%
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,679
    edited September 17

    I'm getting the bluebottles congregating around the corpse of SLab buzz.

    I appreciate that the hard line Nats on here haven't a good word for Starmer. But plenty of the people you purport to speak for do.

    Opinium, 9th September:
    "To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way that Keir Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party".

    SNP Voters: Approve 28%, Disapprove 25%, Net +3%

    All Scottish Voters: Approve 34%, Disapprove 26%, Net +8%
    34% approval isn't great. Its not terrible but its not great either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140

    I'm getting the bluebottles congregating around the corpse of SLab buzz.

    I appreciate that the hard line Nats on here haven't a good word for Starmer. But plenty of the people you purport to speak for do.

    Opinium, 9th September:
    "To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way that Keir Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party".

    SNP Voters: Approve 28%, Disapprove 25%, Net +3%

    All Scottish Voters: Approve 34%, Disapprove 26%, Net +8%
    I'm disappointed that he went AWOL when the future or otherwise of Richard Leonard was being debated. If he really wants a Scottish come back (and I don't see him ever being PM without it) he needed to start at the top.
  • UDI a possibility says (checks notes) Sir John Curtice.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    Scott_xP said:
    The shock of people who expected Boris to lie for them, who now find he is lying to them.
  • It is long time since the control of House flipped in a presidential election year (it happened last in 1952 if I am not mistaken). That may one reason why some think it is really unlikely to happen.
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't buy the whole "The house isn't possible for the GOP to win" that we've seen on previous threads.

    I've looked, and the 218th seat in 2016 was Michigan-11. The GOP won that by 12.7% with a 1.1% lead in the generic vote nationally; so 11.6% lean to the GOP.
    The 218th seat in 2018 was California-10. The GOP lost that by 4.6% and were 8.6% behind in the generic vote; so there was still a 4% House lean to the GOP.

    There's another complicating factor in that generic vote and presidential vote don't entirely match but Ryan outperformed Trump by 3.2% in 2016 - as to how that shakes out it's not entirely clear.

    So with no redistricting since 2016 or 2018 taking place, we can't be sure of the 2020 House lean as a prior - but it's a stretch to imagine it'll disappear completely for the GOP - and with that it's a huge stretch to somehow think the House is unwinnable for the GOP.

    If you're going to go with that prior, you might as well write off Trump as well.

    Yeah, I see the potential for big gains for the GOP.

    People are treating things like Scotland post 2015. They saw 56 SNP seats and went "Well that's Scotland soliudly SNP for ever now" and ignored both that those gains were made on enormous swings and that many of those seats were now very marginal.

    This is what happened in 2018. The Dems got some huge swings and those seats are now marginal seats.

    I think the Dems will keep the House actually, but 4-1 was too big to miss.

    USC Dornsife today has {Biden + Dems 50%}, {Trump 44%/ GOP 46%}. Which is nice if you're on the GOP for the House and Biden for the presidency.
    Yeah, it's the people who are tipping Trump to win the Presidency but not the GOP to take the house when you could get 4-1 on the latter that you have to give the side eye to.

    The GOP are going to outperform Trump in national vote share.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps because they’ve realised it was a mug’s bet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,638
    Scott_xP said:
    "“The Lord Curry amendment will beef up the role of the commission which is currently due to report and dissolve in just three months’ time."

    This just makes me want a beef curry.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004
    Scott_xP said:
    All right who was it, who left he Rees-Mogg stable door unbolted....??
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,042
    edited September 17
    Scott_xP said:
    The problem is that Young thought he'd get Boris the columnist as Boris the PM. Alas a few facile, dashed-off japes in the Telegraph once a week don't give you the secret to governing a country in dark and difficult world.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,207

    UDI a possibility says (checks notes) Sir John Curtice.

    Isn't it always an option?

    Even if they have the law on their side, it doesn't alter the fact that Scotland would rather Westminster play nicely in the event of them deciding to go independent.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,887

    The problem is that Young thought he'd get Boris the columnist as Boris the PM. Alas a few facile, dashed-off japes in the Telegraph once a week don't give you the secret to governing a country in dark and difficult world.

    He thought the Clown was just an act to get elected, and the serious politician would emerge.

    Like Trump

    Idiot
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,161

    I'm getting the bluebottles congregating around the corpse of SLab buzz.

    I appreciate that the hard line Nats on here haven't a good word for Starmer. But plenty of the people you purport to speak for do.

    Opinium, 9th September:
    "To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way that Keir Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party".

    SNP Voters: Approve 28%, Disapprove 25%, Net +3%

    All Scottish Voters: Approve 34%, Disapprove 26%, Net +8%
    34% approval isn't great. Its not terrible but its not great either.
    It's definitely better than 26% disapproval. And definitely better too than the 44% who disapprove of the way your man is handling his job as PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,638



    He didn't have Netflix and the Internet though..
    I've completed Civ 6 on Deity Level.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    tlg86 said:

    UDI a possibility says (checks notes) Sir John Curtice.

    Isn't it always an option?

    Even if they have the law on their side, it doesn't alter the fact that Scotland would rather Westminster play nicely in the event of them deciding to go independent.
    It's difficult now for the government to attack a wildcat referendum and UDI based on the result because of their antics with the WA. If Westminster can break the law then why can't Holyrood?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004
    Scott_xP said:
    YOung people are getting hammered in this pandemic, so its hardly surprising.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,207
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    UDI a possibility says (checks notes) Sir John Curtice.

    Isn't it always an option?

    Even if they have the law on their side, it doesn't alter the fact that Scotland would rather Westminster play nicely in the event of them deciding to go independent.
    It's difficult now for the government to attack a wildcat referendum and UDI based on the result because of their antics with the WA. If Westminster can break the law then why can't Holyrood?
    I don't doubt it, what I'm getting at is "do they really want to do it?"
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004
    Its not just IDS, Kate Hoey is weighing in on Biden.

    Democrat politicians attended fundraisers for IRA munitions that killed civilians apparently.

    Can Nigel Farage be far behind? That would complete the set.

  • IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The shock of people who expected Boris to lie for them, who now find he is lying to them.
    There are two types of people in the world.

    People who regret trusting Boris and people who will regret trusting Boris.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,638

    Scott_xP said:
    The problem is that Young thought he'd get Boris the columnist as Boris the PM. Alas a few facile, dashed-off japes in the Telegraph once a week don't give you the secret to governing a country in dark and difficult world.
    There seems to be almost perfect mutual exclusivity between those vociferously criticising Boris on grounds of insufficient libertarianism over Covid, and those vociferously criticising Boris on grounds of lawbreaking.

    Interesting. Not interesting.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,161
    DavidL said:

    I'm getting the bluebottles congregating around the corpse of SLab buzz.

    I appreciate that the hard line Nats on here haven't a good word for Starmer. But plenty of the people you purport to speak for do.

    Opinium, 9th September:
    "To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way that Keir Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party".

    SNP Voters: Approve 28%, Disapprove 25%, Net +3%

    All Scottish Voters: Approve 34%, Disapprove 26%, Net +8%
    I'm disappointed that he went AWOL when the future or otherwise of Richard Leonard was being debated. If he really wants a Scottish come back (and I don't see him ever being PM without it) he needed to start at the top.
    You have unrealistic and unreasonable expectations of Starmer in that regard. On the other hand, I'm disappointed that Gordon Brown continues to go AWOL, a re-emergence from him into Scottish politics is sorely needed.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,774
    edited September 17
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Just sitting down to a hearty lunch in a mountain hutte.

    I think you'll find there is enough of the virus here already.

    Following your and Mystic's logic, we should stop people travelling to or from the North, very dangerous. Or South Wales. Stop all sport; both participating and spectating are unnecessary risks. Ban all non-essential shopping; going out and mixing with others just to buy something you don't need - how selfish is that?

    Indeed unless you are a key worker you don't need to leave your town. Or street. Or house. Just stay at home.

    Astonishing isn`t it. Otherwise intelligent people are losing their marbles. The undercurrent seems to be "we don`t want any foreign virus here" despite the prevalance being higher in the Uk compared to the country visited. Add a touch of envy to this mild xenophobia and you have a super new cohort to scapegoat.

    I live in one of the worst affected UK areas. Infections over 150 per 100k. If I decide to travel to a "safe list" country, e.g. Greece with 25 per 100k or Italy with 23 per 100k, and spend two weeks there, the odds are that I will be a lesser risk to UK subjects on my return than if I had stayed in my home town for the two weeks. (Not to mention the obvious that it we don`t support the airlines and other tourism stakeholders they will be be fucked.)

    Enjoy your apple strudel, by the way.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    UDI a possibility says (checks notes) Sir John Curtice.

    Isn't it always an option?

    Even if they have the law on their side, it doesn't alter the fact that Scotland would rather Westminster play nicely in the event of them deciding to go independent.
    It's difficult now for the government to attack a wildcat referendum and UDI based on the result because of their antics with the WA. If Westminster can break the law then why can't Holyrood?
    I don't doubt it, what I'm getting at is "do they really want to do it?"
    Expect Sturgeon to do whatever makes like difficult for Westminster so I'd say yes, she will push one on this basis.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782
    kinabalu said:

    Perfect.....the "quiet man" has opened his trap......

    One has to feel for Joe Biden here. He's already in the fight of his life to eject Donald Trump from the White House in the most divisive and potentially explosive US presidential election there has ever been and now he has Iain Duncan Smith on his back.
    Mega lolz
  • Other more recent polls don't matter as Trafalgar got it right in 2016, ignoring margin of error for other pollsters. We will ignore how they did in 2018. Also he has to mention them at least once a day at per his contract.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,161

    I'm getting the bluebottles congregating around the corpse of SLab buzz.

    I appreciate that the hard line Nats on here haven't a good word for Starmer. But plenty of the people you purport to speak for do.

    Opinium, 9th September:
    "To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way that Keir Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party".

    SNP Voters: Approve 28%, Disapprove 25%, Net +3%

    All Scottish Voters: Approve 34%, Disapprove 26%, Net +8%
    34% approval isn't great. Its not terrible but its not great either.
    It's definitely better than 26% disapproval. And definitely better too than the 44% who disapprove of the way your man is handling his job as PM.
    PS. Apologies, that was misleading. 44% disapproval of Johnson is from the GB electorate. For Scotland only dispproval of Johnson is 57%. That compares with 26% disapproval of Starmer in Scotland.
  • I'm getting the bluebottles congregating around the corpse of SLab buzz.

    I appreciate that the hard line Nats on here haven't a good word for Starmer. But plenty of the people you purport to speak for do.

    Opinium, 9th September:
    "To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way that Keir Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party".

    SNP Voters: Approve 28%, Disapprove 25%, Net +3%

    All Scottish Voters: Approve 34%, Disapprove 26%, Net +8%
    34% approval isn't great. Its not terrible but its not great either.
    It's definitely better than 26% disapproval. And definitely better too than the 44% who disapprove of the way your man is handling his job as PM.
    The approval rating matters more than the disapproval one.

    Natonwide Johnson is getting an average of about 39-40% approval.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The shock of people who expected Boris to lie for them, who now find he is lying to them.
    There are two types of people in the world.

    People who regret trusting Boris and people who will regret trusting Boris.
    To be fair, Boris is an equal opportunities liar. There's no discrimination in those porkies.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782
    Can someone explain to me the science behind "importing the virus"?

    I'm not clear how visiting a country with a lower rate of covidianism than the UK is more risky than, erm, going down the shops.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,207
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    UDI a possibility says (checks notes) Sir John Curtice.

    Isn't it always an option?

    Even if they have the law on their side, it doesn't alter the fact that Scotland would rather Westminster play nicely in the event of them deciding to go independent.
    It's difficult now for the government to attack a wildcat referendum and UDI based on the result because of their antics with the WA. If Westminster can break the law then why can't Holyrood?
    I don't doubt it, what I'm getting at is "do they really want to do it?"
    Expect Sturgeon to do whatever makes like difficult for Westminster so I'd say yes, she will push one on this basis.
    In the hope that she doesn't get one? Does she really want a referendum on independence, right now (in the next 12 months)?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004

    Can someone explain to me the science behind "importing the virus"?

    I'm not clear how visiting a country with a lower rate of covidianism than the UK is more risky than, erm, going down the shops.

    Anyone expecting any kind of coherence from anywhere near the state is going to be disappointed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    Latest Republican Senate candidate - both QAnon supporter and ex drug runner...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/meet-lauren-witzke-the-qanon-friendly-senate-nominee-in-delaware.html
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 22,462
    edited September 17

    I'm getting the bluebottles congregating around the corpse of SLab buzz.

    I appreciate that the hard line Nats on here haven't a good word for Starmer. But plenty of the people you purport to speak for do.

    Opinium, 9th September:
    "To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way that Keir Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party".

    SNP Voters: Approve 28%, Disapprove 25%, Net +3%

    All Scottish Voters: Approve 34%, Disapprove 26%, Net +8%
    How's Labour's polling in voting going with the people that 'hard line Nats on here' purport to speak for? I know getting Scotch folk to actually vote for you has not been something uppermost in Lab minds for a while, but still..

    I haven't particularly expressed an opinion on SKS one way or another, but on the basis of him not being BJ or Corbyn & not being a complete waste of space, I'd probably give hm a positive rating in his handling of his job as Leader of the Labour Party. Pretty sure more super Federalism guff and there being no need for another indy ref will garner many Scotch votes tho' (hint: it hasn't worked the last 223 times it's been tried).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    edited September 17
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:
    The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.
    Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.
    Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.
    Need to rule out ski holidays now.
    Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?
    You are obviously forgetting loads of people reaction in March / April, when told only travel if necessary, people decided that skiing in the Alps classed as such.

    Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.

    UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
    Just sitting down to a hearty lunch in a mountain hutte.

    I think you'll find there is enough of the virus here already.

    Following your and Mystic's logic, we should stop people travelling to or from the North, very dangerous. Or South Wales. Stop all sport; both participating and spectating are unnecessary risks. Ban all non-essential shopping; going out and mixing with others just to buy something you don't need - how selfish is that?

    Indeed unless you are a key worker you don't need to leave your town. Or street. Or house. Just stay at home.

    Astonishing isn`t it. Otherwise intelligent people are losing their marbles. The undercurrent seems to be "we don`t want any foreign virus here" despite the prevalance being higher in the Uk compared to the country visited. Add a touch of envy to this mild xenophobia and you have a super new cohort to scapegoat.

    I live in one of the worst affected UK areas. Infections over 150 per 100k. If I decide to travel to a "safe list" country, e.g. Greece with 25 per 100k or Italy with 23 per 100k, and spend two weeks there, the odds are that I will be a lesser risk to UK subjects on my return than if I had stayed in my home town for the two weeks. (Not to mention the obvious that it we don`t support the airlines and other tourism stakeholders they will be be fucked.)

    Enjoy your apple strudel, by the way.
    Reaction against anything foreign has been an instinctive follow on from plague for millennia.

    In my normally quiet out of season home town, as soon as the lockdown was announced, a shedload of SeanT types - who had spent their lives yakking on about their wonderful lives in London - suddenly pitched up here, frightened about staying in the big city. Their normally dark empty second homes sprang to life and they proceeded to fill up our doctors' appointments and take the toilet rolls off our supermarket shelves. According to the local paper, several of them brought the virus with them and ended up filling a few of the handful of ICU beds at St Mary's

    As soon as the lockdown ended, we have been destination for armies of Brits, many from hotspot towns in the Midlands and North, who didn't fancy Majorca or the Canaries this year.

    All these visitors clearly push up my risk had I stayed at home. To be honest, although I am on the tourist circuit, a couple of weeks up here with the dog in the mountains feels like getting away from it all.

    I have had homemade macaroni with tomato and local vegetables, followed by some sort of grilled river salmon with polenta, washed down with a flagon on white wine from the vines I can see down in the valley. The strudel will have to wait until later.
  • Scott_xP said:
    It's the fantasy collapsing, as so many of us said.
    "Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt is paid."
    For the first time since the Brexit vote I'm of the opinion that if we went back in time and re-ran it, but with everyone given foresight of the consequences of Leave, then Remain would win. There will be enough former Leave voters now who'd conclude it wasn't worth a candle.
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