politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EP14: Results summary with changes on 2009
Comments
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@BobaFett
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..
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Ha. Indeed... Last night being a prime example when those of us pointing out that Lab would beat the Tories because London and Scotland had still to declare were like silent voices in the darkness.Carola said:
I think I nail a lot of things tbh but there's so much wordy *analysis* goes on on here that the bleedin' obvious usually gets ignored/goes unnoticed.BobaFett said:
Here we go again. Look at the total votes cast in London for Labour. Then look at the total votes cast for the Tories. No amount of sub-sectioning will hide what was an absolute hiding for the Tories, and a very eye-catching display by Labour.Socrates said:
I'd be very surprised if it didn't given the vast differences at the last general election. But generally UK polite society is far more uncomfortable with doing this than in the US, so I don't know how available it is.Casino_Royale said:
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.Socrates said:
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.HurstLlama said:
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.Carola said:
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.BobaFett said:
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.Carola said:Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Instead of obsessing about immigration, we should instead by analysing why Ed's formula works so much better in big wealthy cities among professionals but much less so with other demographics in the provinces. @Carola nailed the divide this morning.0 -
Anybody reading Mike's effort this morning wouldnt even know that UKIP had done anything out of the ordinary, so I guess you could mention thatTheScreamingEagles said:Writing the next thread is so difficult.
I've worked though so far, nine different drafts.
I think I am guaranteed to upset everyone with the next piece
I'm hoping to have something up by mid afternoon.
PS - Does anyone know if Lord A is publishing his weekly phone poll today ?
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Total and utter rubbish.FalseFlag said:Labour isn't the party of the professional classes. Most professionals commute in from out of London. Crosby will be looking to motivate the indigenous middle and respectable working class as he did for Boris.
1 in 4 Londoners are graduates.
Compare that to the national rate and come back to us.
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john_zims said:
@BobaFett
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..
Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.
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Spot on Bobafett what Labour really need to do is talk openly about how they will massively ramp up immigration if they are let back in and how even more special set asides be funded for random economically unsuccessful people who turn up here financed by by indigenous people, this is clearly the path to electoral success rather than coming up with false apologies or just denying/not mentioning. What the conservatives definitely don't want to do is absolutely hammer labour for their record in government on immigration, no way that would depress turnout for labour. No way should a link between the housing crisis and cost of living be linked back to labour's immigration and economic policies.0
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'Labour needs to get its collective head outside of London more often, and talk to the rest of the country more clearly. At the moment it’s too easy to cast us as a metropolitan party only – and if you look at the other cities we did well in, that looks about right.'
http://labourlist.org/2014/05/labour-needs-to-make-profound-changes-to-win-in-2015/0 -
And the relevance of that is what? That governments usually get re-elected at their first election after taking office?HortenceWithering said:
Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.john_zims said:@BobaFett
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..0 -
Your response to any criticism you perceive of the Scottish nationalist cause, Malcolm, is to lob personal insults back at whoever made them. It is precisely why I don't engage you in debate.malcolmg said:
LOL, another numpty who knows nothing , in government 8 years and still held vote share , compare with other parties idiot.Casino_Royale said:Scotland is interesting. For the governing party (which has a majority in the Scottish parliament) to poll sub-30% less than 4 months before it hopes to declare independence from the UK cannot be an encouraging sign.
No doubt many Scottish nationalists will endeavour to explain this away. The more sober and thoughtful amongst them will reflect carefully on it.
Perhaps it makes you feel a bit better. Perhaps it amuses those who already agree with you. But it won't win over a single floating voter in the coming referendum and, indeed, may even drive them the other way.
It certainly doesn't convince me of the merits of your arguments. It just makes me ignore you.0 -
I'll stick to the facts - you rely on your own prejudices.FalseFlag said:Spot on Bobafett what Labour really need to do is talk openly about how they will massively ramp up immigration if they are let back in and how even more special set asides be funded for random economically unsuccessful people who turn up here financed by by indigenous people, this is clearly the path to electoral success rather than coming up with false apologies or just denying/not mentioning. What the conservatives definitely don't want to do is absolutely hammer labour for their record in government on immigration, no way that would depress turnout for labour. No way should a link between the housing crisis and cost of living be linked back to labour's immigration and economic policies.
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Mike is still recovering from the shock at how badly the LDs performed?isam said:
Anybody reading Mike's effort this morning wouldnt even know that UKIP had done anything out of the ordinary, so I guess you could mention thatTheScreamingEagles said:Writing the next thread is so difficult.
I've worked though so far, nine different drafts.
I think I am guaranteed to upset everyone with the next piece
I'm hoping to have something up by mid afternoon.
PS - Does anyone know if Lord A is publishing his weekly phone poll today ?0 -
Certainly agree with that assessment, - although Swindon should be avoided at all cost.Carola said:'Labour needs to get its collective head outside of London more often, and talk to the rest of the country more clearly. [snip]
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has clegg retreated to the bunker?0
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@iainmartin1: Nick Clegg is at the hiding out in the presidential palace and seeking support by telephone stage.kjohnw said:has clegg retreated to the bunker?
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Clegg at 25/1 to be next Governor of Gibraltar following the Liberal landslide on The Rock.shadsy said:
I'm not on0 -
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.HortenceWithering said:
Is he the one that caused the floods ?isam said:
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Way to go UKIP!isam said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 19m
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.0 -
One year ago 'UKIP to win a seat' was 3.6, now it's shorter than 1.5 with some bookies. 2 years ago 'UKIP>LDs' was 5/1, we could see it go odds on in the next week. Tells you all you need to know about what the big story has been since then.isam said:Quincel said:
But UKIP are still 2.38 to beat the LDs in votes. So there's a tasty, longer than evens, bet for everyone. Think UKIP will fall away? Take the bet on them not winning a seat. Think UKIP will sustain? Take the bet on them beating the LDs.isam said:
The markets for the GE are shortening all the timemalcolmg said:
Sam, they have done the easy bit , when they win significant seats in an election that people are interested in it will be time to crow. We only ever hear of MEP's every 5 years and then they disappear to the trough.isam said:The Guardian seem to be calling it an earthquake, while bitter/out of touch PBers are damning with faint praise
How many elections did the SDP win?
How many have the Lib Dems won??? hahahaha
Ukip wins European elections with ease to set off political earthquake
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-european-elections-political-earthquake
It will be a bit tougher to win GE seats.
4/6 to win a seat is the best price
10-15% is 15/8 favourite in the share of the vote market
Disclosure: I think UKIP will sustain and have money on a couple of relevant bets.
Yes that bet was 7/4 three weeks ago
Wonder what price Ladbrokes will go when they have revised?
However, if ever there was going to be a high water mark for UKIP it would be now - a Euro election a year before the general. Time, as always, will tell.0 -
When are you paying out shadsy?shadsy said:0 -
Are you really asking me why comparing the electoral performance of a government that has been in office for 4 years against one that has been in office for 12 is not a like for like comparison and is not one that a person could draw any conclusions from ? Really ? I'm astounded.david_herdson said:
And the relevance of that is what? That governments usually get re-elected at their first election after taking office?HortenceWithering said:
Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.john_zims said:@BobaFett
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..0 -
My next thread, the headline my fellows physicists will love.Scrapheap_as_was said:
1. Was Martin Day's yellow taxi once of the most prescient obsessions ever shown on PB threads?TheScreamingEagles said:Writing the next thread is so difficult.
I've worked though so far, nine different drafts.
I think I am guaranteed to upset everyone with the next piece
I'm hoping to have something up by mid afternoon.
PS - Does anyone know if Lord A is publishing his weekly phone poll today ?
2. OGH or Ed Miliband - who did better or worse in these elections?
3. Sky, ITV or BBC for GE 2015, after 2010 BBC were the big loser, has anything changed since for watching next year?
4. Are Spurs now part winners of the Champs League as an official feeder club to Real Madrid and thus trump the little FA Cup trinket of others.
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Love the birthday party treasure hunt line.shadsy said:0 -
Sounds like the gay version of calling someone an Uncle Tom to me.. niceRichard_Tyndall said:
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.HortenceWithering said:
Is he the one that caused the floods ?isam said:
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Way to go UKIP!isam said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 19m
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.0 -
Thanks Shadsy - that 1/2 from hills for Clegg to remain as leader is stonking value. Sadly I can't get on!shadsy said:0 -
Patsies for Farage ! I'm sure some blacks voted for Enoch. It didn't mean he was right, it meant they were deluded patsies.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.HortenceWithering said:
Is he the one that caused the floods ?isam said:
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Way to go UKIP!isam said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 19m
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.0 -
My apologies Shadsy. I see you've paid out on the tricast. I meant on the Labour 26% seat line bet. I think it's still "pending" ?Casino_Royale said:
When are you paying out shadsy?shadsy said:
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@HortenceWithering
'Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.'
One of the more feeble excuses for Labour's poor performance,you need to come up with something a bit more convincing.Basic stuff.0 -
@malcolmg Whats your prediction for the Scots Referendum again given this advice on betting on a Scottish UKIP seat - I thought you might have a clue seeing as you live up there !
Hmm....malcolmg said:Posts: 4,094
May 16
Maybe based on one poll, but if you go by any previous real votes they get less than 1% so whether you believe one poll or all previous real votes is down to whether you are all there.anotherDave said:said:
The last polls have UKIP on 10% in Scotland, and 20% in Wales. Perhaps Mr Farage is suggesting that if their performance in Scotland matches their (predicted) performance in Wales, they will win two seats?Pulpstar said:said:
Private polling or hope. What are the odds of UKIP winning a Scottish seat ?RodCrosby said:said:
Farage predicting 1 or 2 UKIP seats in Scotland next week...
One scottish seat is certainly possible on current polling.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Scottish_polls0 -
Scotland joins the party officially.0
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I was going to say the same thing. Mr. Withering does seem to be expressing very bigoted views this morning.isam said:
Sounds like the gay version of calling someone an Uncle Tom to me.. niceRichard_Tyndall said:
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.HortenceWithering said:
Is he the one that caused the floods ?isam said:
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Way to go UKIP!isam said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 19m
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.0 -
Newark: UKIP backed as low as 6/4 on betfair earlier. Silly overexcited punters.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?id=1.113986228&selectionId=36142010 -
She lost her seat on Merton council on Thursday, but Suzanne Evans is quite a good media performer. Is this seat winnable?
Suzanne Evans @SuzanneEvans1 6m
Just updated my profile. Delighted to announce I've been selected as @ukip PPC for #Shrewsbury & Atcham where I grew up #GE20150 -
Morning all.
Except for UKIP winning a seat in Scotland (BTW why on earth can't the Western Isles count the votes on Friday and Saturday?), a very satisfactory betting result for me. The Conservatives did a bit better than I expected, but it looks as though they'll finish a smidgen below the 24% line (Phew). Labour safely below their 27% line, that's no surprise. UKIP top, that's no surprise. Greens beat the LibDems (Kerching!) and Lutfur Rahman came through in Tower Hamlets (thanks Neil for the original tip at 5/4, although I didn't take the plunge until the odds had lengthened to 7/4). I was close but got no banana on the LibDem seat total (I'd gone for 2 seats at 4/1)0 -
Belle View Terrace. Is that Morningside?0
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john_zims said:
@HortenceWithering
'Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.'
One of the more feeble excuses for Labour's poor performance,you need to come up with something a bit more convincing.Basic stuff.</blockquote
I note you are unable to refute your basic error. If you want to argue Labour had a bad night by all means do so, just try using like for like comparisons when you do so though there's a good chap.
By the way, I was wondering if this was the Conservatives worst performance in a national election since the Great Reform Act of 1832. I am unsure - perhaps you know ?0 -
The UKIP elected candidate lives in London.. oops!0
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Carpet bag kipper wins in Scotland lol0
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Kipper from Kensington!0
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On a purely ideological note: Would UKIP prefer to see an independent Scotland outside the EU or a Scotland as part of the UK but still in the EU? (ie which is worse - leaving Westminster or leaving Brussels?)0
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Mr. NabaviRichard_Nabavi said:Morning all.
You simply don't know the time of the day.
PB Tories. Always wrong. Never learn.
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Sky share of vote which includes Scotland as Western Isles will not alter result
UKIP 24 seats 29.1%
Lab 20 25.4%
Con 19 24.6%
Lib Dems 1 6.9%
Others 6 14.2%0 -
I'm asking you what you think the implications of the elections just gone are for the one next year.HortenceWithering said:
Are you really asking me why comparing the electoral performance of a government that has been in office for 4 years against one that has been in office for 12 is not a like for like comparison and is not one that a person could draw any conclusions from ? Really ? I'm astounded.david_herdson said:
And the relevance of that is what? That governments usually get re-elected at their first election after taking office?HortenceWithering said:
Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.john_zims said:@BobaFett
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..
You have a point that third term governments usually lose. First term governments usually win. The voting figures over the last week don't particularly run counter to that, do they?0 -
Labour cheerleaders covering themselves in a London comfort blanket very unlikely to survive even a mild winter. BTW the sneering Londocentric approach the the plebs outside need to follow once they get some educashon is not a good look for the brotherhood!BobaFett said:
Here we go again. Look at the total votes cast in London for Labour. Then look at the total votes cast for the Tories. No amount of sub-sectioning will hide what was an absolute hiding for the Tories, and a very eye-catching display by Labour.Socrates said:
I'd be very surprised if it didn't given the vast differences at the last general election. But generally UK polite society is far more uncomfortable with doing this than in the US, so I don't know how available it is.Casino_Royale said:
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.Socrates said:
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.HurstLlama said:
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.Carola said:
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.BobaFett said:
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.Carola said:Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Instead of obsessing about immigration, we should instead by analysing why Ed's formula works so much better in big wealthy cities among professionals but much less so with other demographics in the provinces. @Carola nailed the divide this morning.0 -
Tories the 3rd-place party of the Euro Election?AveryLP said:
Mr. NabaviRichard_Nabavi said:Morning all.
You simply don't know the time of the day.
PB Tories. Always wrong. Never learn.0 -
Hope people got on when I was tipping that at 4/1 (or if they get better odds, well done them). I'd be looking to trade out at 6/4 though.Pong said:Newark: UKIP backed as low as 6/4 on betfair earlier. Silly overexcited punters.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?id=1.113986228&selectionId=36142010 -
SMukesh,
I think you're right about Ed's strategy for getting into number 10 - don't scare the horses.
Like in the Uncle Remus stories, he wants to lie low and say nuffin.
Euro elections? Just talk about the cost of living. General election? Don't mention any policies until you have to and just talk about the cost of living.
If Ukip try that, replacing Europe with the cost of living, they'll be laughed at.
Which one is really taking the p*ss? The voters may not all be masterminds but they're not entirely stupid.0 -
When is Northern Ireland projected to declare?0
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Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.0
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Lib Dem on BBC: "The biggest story is the turnout" LOL!!!!0
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Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300
Con 290
Lib Dem 20
UKIP 3
Green 2
Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 20160 -
Nice. I do love the way this election has brought out the petty narrow minded bigotries of so many posters. If reality does not fit your perception then of course it must be reality that is wrong.HortenceWithering said:
Patsies for Farage ! I'm sure some blacks voted for Enoch. It didn't mean he was right, it meant they were deluded patsies.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.HortenceWithering said:
Is he the one that caused the floods ?isam said:
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Way to go UKIP!isam said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 19m
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.0 -
@EddieBarnes23: Scots Tory Euro vote at its highest for 25 years, says @IanDuncan2014 in his acceptance speech #EP20140
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Not exactly the next William Hague is she? Good to see the next generation being given a chance on national TV to cut their media teeth, though.SandyRentool said:Lib Dem on BBC: "The biggest story is the turnout" LOL!!!!
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BTW, I just managed to get a tenner on Lab in Newark @ 32/1 (betfair). Value IMO0
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Wow. What a patronising attitude towards ethnic minorities.HortenceWithering said:
Patsies for Farage ! I'm sure some blacks voted for Enoch. It didn't mean he was right, it meant they were deluded patsies.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.HortenceWithering said:
Is he the one that caused the floods ?isam said:
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Way to go UKIP!isam said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 19m
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.0 -
Lembit Opik sticking the boot into Clegg on Sky. His position is safe now.0
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Labour and LibDem youth leaders fighting like ferrets in a sack. LibDem one thinks the problem is not enough character assassination of Nigel Farage by Labour.
Hmm.0 -
@TelePolitics: Blog: It's not a parrot joke. It's a dead party. The long overdue death of the 'Lib Dem' construct http://t.co/oD0ucV0yfn0
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The young Labourite sounds depressingly polished.0
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A tremendous night for UKIP.
A terrible night for Labour. EdM is a liability.
An ok night for the Conservatives.
A good night for the Greens
A diabolical night for the LibDems. NickC is a liability.
And a pretty poor night for politicalbetting.com, or rather its LibDem supporting blinkered host. It's a shame that like a lot of liberals he actually isn't, and has allowed his illiberal tendencies to cloud his judgement and in particular to silence those with whom he disagrees: like the poor fellow he tiraded for suggesting that the Conservatives will win the popular vote next year when that is looking a very likely outcome.
Extrapolating from this result, the Conservatives will win the GE2015. It's just a question of whether they will have an outright majority. This isn't merely anecdotal, although I've lost count the number of people telling me they voted UKIP this time but will vote Cons for the GE. It's also what the polling suggests. When you switch to GE voting it's clear which way the trend is going and with the economy turning rampant it's only going one way.
Unless, of course, Labour do the sensible thing and replace EdM. That would be the game changer. He's a disaster: 'weird' sums it up, but 'red and weird' is even worse.0 -
Possible value bets to watch for as a result of vote 2014
UKIP to poll over 12%
UKIP to outpoll the Lib Dems
lib Dem seats under 29
ed Miliband next PM
UKIP in Great Yarmouth, Thanet South and one other
greens in Norwich South
Tories to win 3 Scottish seats
Tories to gain Dumfries and Galloway from Labour
Tory share to be 35% plus
Tories to lose all their 2010 London gains
Southampton Itchen to be only Tory gain from Labour in England
Lib Dem welsh wipeout
Cornwall solid blue
Borders solid blue.0 -
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?dyedwoolie said:Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300
Con 290
Lib Dem 20
UKIP 3
Green 2
Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Election after next - May 2020
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Lembit on Sky calling for Clegg to resign as leader but carry on as DPM "as Lloyd George did 100 years ago..."
Muppet.0 -
Hmm, me neither. Was it pulled?Pulpstar said:0 -
Ready for her career in politics as a Labour MP.. just the same as all the rest of them.Quincel said:The young Labourite sounds depressingly polished.
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The FTPA allows for early elections if there is a vote of no confidence in the government and no new government formed within 2 weeks. No need for an amendment.MikeSmithson said:
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?dyedwoolie said:Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300
Con 290
Lib Dem 20
UKIP 3
Green 2
Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Election after next - May 20200 -
Didn't the constituency include Sherwood though - and with Con only 2% behind shouldn't they be able to win with the euro purple tories ?Pong said:Newark: UKIP backed as low as 6/4 on betfair earlier. Silly overexcited punters.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?id=1.113986228&selectionId=36142010 -
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?maaarsh said:Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
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I'd suggest a deal would be struck that the Tories were satisfied with. ed won't be able to struggle on for five years in minority and the Tories will want to get back in, they both have so,etching to gain from an amendment to the Parliament act. if not, it may well form part of a one year supply and confidence deal with the Lib Dems and SNP/da OirishMikeSmithson said:
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?dyedwoolie said:Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300
Con 290
Lib Dem 20
UKIP 3
Green 2
Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Election after next - May 2020
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I did make the point a couple if weeks ago that the EU citizens can vote in the EU elections and not at the GE. Given it was so tight might be interesting to know how they voted. Probably disproportionately in London and not Kippers.maaarsh said:Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
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Your thinking being?Pong said:BTW, I just managed to get a tenner on Lab in Newark @ 32/1 (betfair). Value IMO
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I like this 11% bond I have with Hills:MikeSmithson said:
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?dyedwoolie said:Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300
Con 290
Lib Dem 20
UKIP 3
Green 2
Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Election after next - May 2020
Single To Win
2015 or later @ 1/9General Election SpecialsOpen
Year Of Next General Election?
Stake: £100.000 -
Er, if a party doesn't win a majority then it hasn't won an election. You mean the Conservatives might be the largest party I think.audreyanne said:A tremendous night for UKIP.
A terrible night for Labour. EdM is a liability.
An ok night for the Conservatives.
A good night for the Greens
A diabolical night for the LibDems. NickC is a liability.
And a pretty poor night for politicalbetting.com, or rather its LibDem supporting blinkered host. It's a shame that like a lot of liberals he actually isn't, and has allowed his illiberal tendencies to cloud his judgement and in particular to silence those with whom he disagrees: like the poor fellow he tiraded for suggesting that the Conservatives will win the popular vote next year when that is looking a very likely outcome.
Extrapolating from this result, the Conservatives will win the GE2015. It's just a question of whether they will have an outright majority. This isn't merely anecdotal, although I've lost count the number of people telling me they voted UKIP this time but will vote Cons for the GE. It's also what the polling suggests. When you switch to GE voting it's clear which way the trend is going and with the economy turning rampant it's only going one way.
Unless, of course, Labour do the sensible thing and replace EdM. That would be the game changer. He's a disaster: 'weird' sums it up, but 'red and weird' is even worse.
Incidentally, I think your remarks about the host of this site are way off beam.
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If there's a minority government, there's a good chance it would be no confidenced within the five years. With no other viable government, parliament would be dissolved two weeks after the no confidence motion.MikeSmithson said:
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?dyedwoolie said:Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300
Con 290
Lib Dem 20
UKIP 3
Green 2
Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Election after next - May 20200 -
@HortenceWithering
'By the way, I was wondering if this was the Conservatives worst performance in a national election since the Great Reform Act of 1832. I am unsure - perhaps you know ?'
At least you got the hand-out from Labour HQ, hopefully it compensates for the whopping 1.5% poll lead and 1Seat Labour surge over the Tories..0 -
Quite right, there is also the ability for two-thirds of the House of Commons simply to vote for an early election (no confidence vote needed). I fear OGH must be overwrought this morning to forget such basics.Quincel said:
The FTPA allows for early elections if there is a vote of no confidence in the government and no new government formed within 2 weeks. No need for an amendment.MikeSmithson said:
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?dyedwoolie said:Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300
Con 290
Lib Dem 20
UKIP 3
Green 2
Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Election after next - May 20200 -
This kind of nasty attitude is one of the reasons Conservatives do badly in so many parts of the country. It isn't their fault they didn't win there, its the electorates fault for being "German or living in council houses". Priceless but revealing. This too from people who spend no end of time here accusing others of sneering.BobaFett said:
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?maaarsh said:Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
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Congratulations to UKIP and all its supporters. The next bit is going to be much harder, but it will be fascinating to watch how your policies develop and how the other parties respond.
I still strongly believe that we will get a Hung Parliament next time around and that UKIP's vote will be dramatically down on what it scored on Thursday, but there is certainly something going on. The trick for the UKIP leadership will be to work out what it is. How do you hold together an alliance of disillusioned southern Tories and northern Old Labour supporters who feel they have been abandoned? Social conservatism will get you some of the way, but that is a temporary fix. There has to be more.
As someone on the centre left I very much hope that your rise forces a complacent and clearly London-centric Labour party to think more carefully about other parts of the country. There is a lot to be learned from London - especially in areas such as education - but it also has to be recognised that London is very different and that things which work there are not going to work elsewhere.0 -
Anyone who doubts the credentials of UKIP on gay rights is a bigot ? Yeah, that'll be it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nice. I do love the way this election has brought out the petty narrow minded bigotries of so many posters. If reality does not fit your perception then of course it must be reality that is wrong.HortenceWithering said:
Patsies for Farage ! I'm sure some blacks voted for Enoch. It didn't mean he was right, it meant they were deluded patsies.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.HortenceWithering said:
Is he the one that caused the floods ?isam said:
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Way to go UKIP!isam said:Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 19m
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.0 -
Not a good night for the left in Britain yesterday. The demise of Clegg's Lib Dems is a reasonable palliative though. I couldn't get too depressed when you had beaker turn up on the BBC looking like someone had just died.
Why is Clegg being so silent? Are the plates really shifting? Whatever his dire status, his party's problems won't go away with his resignation. They'll be presented with other ones though. I'd have thought he'd be toughing it out with a public statement by now.0 -
Dude...you're killing the moment. I mean, yeah, you're right and all - but way to suck all the excitement out of the air.Pulpstar said:
Didn't the constituency include Sherwood though - and with Con only 2% behind shouldn't they be able to win with the euro purple tories ?Pong said:Newark: UKIP backed as low as 6/4 on betfair earlier. Silly overexcited punters.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?id=1.113986228&selectionId=36142010 -
As a proportion I wouldn't know, but those commuter trains aren't full of cleaners and sandwich shop operatives, are they? If you have some figures then do enlighten us, Mr. Fett.BobaFett said:
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?maaarsh said:Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
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But, you've spent the past few hours sneering and smearing.HortenceWithering said:
This kind of nasty attitude is one of the reasons Conservatives do badly in so many parts of the country. It isn't their fault they didn't win there, its the electorates fault for being "German or living in council houses". Priceless but revealing. This too from people who spend no end of time here accusing others of sneering.BobaFett said:
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?maaarsh said:Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
You lost. It happens. Get over it.
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john_zims said:
@HortenceWithering
'By the way, I was wondering if this was the Conservatives worst performance in a national election since the Great Reform Act of 1832. I am unsure - perhaps you know ?'
At least you got the hand-out from Labour HQ, hopefully it compensates for the whopping 1.5% poll lead and 1Seat Labour surge over the Tories..
So that's a yes then ?0 -
The worst thing he could do for the Lib Dems is resign right now, plus who the hell is going to pick up that poisoned chalice.FrankBooth said:Not a good night for the left in Britain yesterday. The demise of Clegg's Lib Dems is a reasonable palliative though. I couldn't get too depressed when you had beaker turn up on the BBC looking like someone had just died.
Why is Clegg being so silent? Are the plates really shifting? Whatever his dire status, his party's problems won't go away with his resignation. They'll be presented with other ones though. I'd have thought he'd be toughing it out with a public statement by now.
Lib Dems leaving the coalition at the spring conference and going to confidence & supply for the rest of the term might not be a bad move though !0 -
The type of people the Cameroons look down on.Sean_F said:
The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.Socrates said:
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.HurstLlama said:
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.Carola said:
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.BobaFett said:
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.Carola said:Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
The Conservative party needs to be associated with aspiration, instead its chosen an image of privilege.
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Well I am holding a CON Newark bet slip !Quincel said:
Dude...you're killing the moment. I mean, yeah, you're right and all - but way to suck all the excitement out of the air.Pulpstar said:
Didn't the constituency include Sherwood though - and with Con only 2% behind shouldn't they be able to win with the euro purple tories ?Pong said:Newark: UKIP backed as low as 6/4 on betfair earlier. Silly overexcited punters.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?id=1.113986228&selectionId=36142010 -
Well let's agree to disagree about Mike, but I'm not alone.HortenceWithering said:
Er, if a party doesn't win a majority then it hasn't won an election. You mean the Conservatives might be the largest party I think.audreyanne said:A tremendous night for UKIP.
A terrible night for Labour. EdM is a liability.
An ok night for the Conservatives.
A good night for the Greens
A diabolical night for the LibDems. NickC is a liability.
And a pretty poor night for politicalbetting.com, or rather its LibDem supporting blinkered host. It's a shame that like a lot of liberals he actually isn't, and has allowed his illiberal tendencies to cloud his judgement and in particular to silence those with whom he disagrees: like the poor fellow he tiraded for suggesting that the Conservatives will win the popular vote next year when that is looking a very likely outcome.
Extrapolating from this result, the Conservatives will win the GE2015. It's just a question of whether they will have an outright majority. This isn't merely anecdotal, although I've lost count the number of people telling me they voted UKIP this time but will vote Cons for the GE. It's also what the polling suggests. When you switch to GE voting it's clear which way the trend is going and with the economy turning rampant it's only going one way.
Unless, of course, Labour do the sensible thing and replace EdM. That would be the game changer. He's a disaster: 'weird' sums it up, but 'red and weird' is even worse.
Incidentally, I think your remarks about the host of this site are way off beam.
Re 'winning,' yes you're right it was a slightly loose comment but one I thought residents of pb.com would understand. I mean 'win' the popular vote. Under FPTP that doesn't of course equate a win in Westminster seats.0 -
Prediction? I simply made a bet, chum, which narrowly failed to come in, but demonstrated it was a value call nevertheless. The final polls were showing Labour 5% ahead of the Tories. Result was 1.5%.BobaFett said:
It's a GB poll Rod and you got this call wrong. It was clear that Labour wouldn't come third and - like many TV pundits - you made the big mistake of counting without London and the big cities.RodCrosby said:Looks like Labour were only about 34,000 votes ahead of the Tories in England...
The significance is that Labour underperformed against the Tories, which suits me just fine for my "bigger picture" bets... (^_-)0 -
And as if by magic to prove the point........Sean_F said:
But, you've spent the past few hours sneering and smearing.HortenceWithering said:
This kind of nasty attitude is one of the reasons Conservatives do badly in so many parts of the country. It isn't their fault they didn't win there, its the electorates fault for being "German or living in council houses". Priceless but revealing. This too from people who spend no end of time here accusing others of sneering.BobaFett said:
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?maaarsh said:Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
You lost. It happens. Get over it.0 -
All very true. Labour did very well in London, but will it play in Port Talbot? Given the electoral maths does Ed need to care? He might get away with it anyway but governing on such a fragile and narrow base won't be easy to say the least.SouthamObserver said:Congratulations to UKIP and all its supporters. The next bit is going to be much harder, but it will be fascinating to watch how your policies develop and how the other parties respond.
I still strongly believe that we will get a Hung Parliament next time around and that UKIP's vote will be dramatically down on what it scored on Thursday, but there is certainly something going on. The trick for the UKIP leadership will be to work out what it is. How do you hold together an alliance of disillusioned southern Tories and northern Old Labour supporters who feel they have been abandoned? Social conservatism will get you some of the way, but that is a temporary fix. There has to be more.
As someone on the centre left I very much hope that your rise forces a complacent and clearly London-centric Labour party to think more carefully about other parts of the country. There is a lot to be learned from London - especially in areas such as education - but it also has to be recognised that London is very different and that things which work there are not going to work elsewhere.0 -
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynndirector 1h
If the result of Nigel v Nick had been UKIP down to a single MEP, do you think our leader would be hanging around?0 -
Perhaps he's ironically referring to being told that 4/1 Labour in Newark was the value bet.david_herdson said:
Your thinking being?Pong said:BTW, I just managed to get a tenner on Lab in Newark @ 32/1 (betfair). Value IMO
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Betfair settled up Most Seats but not most votes market.
Has Tower Hamlets Labour got the postal vote out in the Western Isles ?0
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