'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.
I'd be very surprised if it didn't given the vast differences at the last general election. But generally UK polite society is far more uncomfortable with doing this than in the US, so I don't know how available it is.
Here we go again. Look at the total votes cast in London for Labour. Then look at the total votes cast for the Tories. No amount of sub-sectioning will hide what was an absolute hiding for the Tories, and a very eye-catching display by Labour.
Instead of obsessing about immigration, we should instead by analysing why Ed's formula works so much better in big wealthy cities among professionals but much less so with other demographics in the provinces. @Carola nailed the divide this morning.
I think I nail a lot of things tbh but there's so much wordy *analysis* goes on on here that the bleedin' obvious usually gets ignored/goes unnoticed.
Ha. Indeed... Last night being a prime example when those of us pointing out that Lab would beat the Tories because London and Scotland had still to declare were like silent voices in the darkness.
Labour isn't the party of the professional classes. Most professionals commute in from out of London. Crosby will be looking to motivate the indigenous middle and respectable working class as he did for Boris.
Total and utter rubbish. 1 in 4 Londoners are graduates. Compare that to the national rate and come back to us.
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..
Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.
Spot on Bobafett what Labour really need to do is talk openly about how they will massively ramp up immigration if they are let back in and how even more special set asides be funded for random economically unsuccessful people who turn up here financed by by indigenous people, this is clearly the path to electoral success rather than coming up with false apologies or just denying/not mentioning. What the conservatives definitely don't want to do is absolutely hammer labour for their record in government on immigration, no way that would depress turnout for labour. No way should a link between the housing crisis and cost of living be linked back to labour's immigration and economic policies.
'Labour needs to get its collective head outside of London more often, and talk to the rest of the country more clearly. At the moment it’s too easy to cast us as a metropolitan party only – and if you look at the other cities we did well in, that looks about right.'
' Last night being a prime example when those of us pointing out that Lab would beat the Tories because London and Scotland had still to declare were like silent voices in the darkness'
Wrong,several people pointed that out but it doesn't fit your narrative. .
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..
Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.
And the relevance of that is what? That governments usually get re-elected at their first election after taking office?
Scotland is interesting. For the governing party (which has a majority in the Scottish parliament) to poll sub-30% less than 4 months before it hopes to declare independence from the UK cannot be an encouraging sign.
No doubt many Scottish nationalists will endeavour to explain this away. The more sober and thoughtful amongst them will reflect carefully on it.
LOL, another numpty who knows nothing , in government 8 years and still held vote share , compare with other parties idiot.
Your response to any criticism you perceive of the Scottish nationalist cause, Malcolm, is to lob personal insults back at whoever made them. It is precisely why I don't engage you in debate.
Perhaps it makes you feel a bit better. Perhaps it amuses those who already agree with you. But it won't win over a single floating voter in the coming referendum and, indeed, may even drive them the other way.
It certainly doesn't convince me of the merits of your arguments. It just makes me ignore you.
Spot on Bobafett what Labour really need to do is talk openly about how they will massively ramp up immigration if they are let back in and how even more special set asides be funded for random economically unsuccessful people who turn up here financed by by indigenous people, this is clearly the path to electoral success rather than coming up with false apologies or just denying/not mentioning. What the conservatives definitely don't want to do is absolutely hammer labour for their record in government on immigration, no way that would depress turnout for labour. No way should a link between the housing crisis and cost of living be linked back to labour's immigration and economic policies.
I'll stick to the facts - you rely on your own prejudices.
Sam, they have done the easy bit , when they win significant seats in an election that people are interested in it will be time to crow. We only ever hear of MEP's every 5 years and then they disappear to the trough. It will be a bit tougher to win GE seats.
The markets for the GE are shortening all the time
4/6 to win a seat is the best price 10-15% is 15/8 favourite in the share of the vote market
But UKIP are still 2.38 to beat the LDs in votes. So there's a tasty, longer than evens, bet for everyone. Think UKIP will fall away? Take the bet on them not winning a seat. Think UKIP will sustain? Take the bet on them beating the LDs.
Disclosure: I think UKIP will sustain and have money on a couple of relevant bets.
Yes that bet was 7/4 three weeks ago
Wonder what price Ladbrokes will go when they have revised?
One year ago 'UKIP to win a seat' was 3.6, now it's shorter than 1.5 with some bookies. 2 years ago 'UKIP>LDs' was 5/1, we could see it go odds on in the next week. Tells you all you need to know about what the big story has been since then.
However, if ever there was going to be a high water mark for UKIP it would be now - a Euro election a year before the general. Time, as always, will tell.
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..
Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.
And the relevance of that is what? That governments usually get re-elected at their first election after taking office?
Are you really asking me why comparing the electoral performance of a government that has been in office for 4 years against one that has been in office for 12 is not a like for like comparison and is not one that a person could draw any conclusions from ? Really ? I'm astounded.
'Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.'
One of the more feeble excuses for Labour's poor performance,you need to come up with something a bit more convincing.Basic stuff.
@malcolmg Whats your prediction for the Scots Referendum again given this advice on betting on a Scottish UKIP seat - I thought you might have a clue seeing as you live up there !
Farage predicting 1 or 2 UKIP seats in Scotland next week...
Private polling or hope. What are the odds of UKIP winning a Scottish seat ?
The last polls have UKIP on 10% in Scotland, and 20% in Wales. Perhaps Mr Farage is suggesting that if their performance in Scotland matches their (predicted) performance in Wales, they will win two seats?
One scottish seat is certainly possible on current polling.
Maybe based on one poll, but if you go by any previous real votes they get less than 1% so whether you believe one poll or all previous real votes is down to whether you are all there.
She lost her seat on Merton council on Thursday, but Suzanne Evans is quite a good media performer. Is this seat winnable?
Suzanne Evans @SuzanneEvans1 6m Just updated my profile. Delighted to announce I've been selected as @ukip PPC for #Shrewsbury & Atcham where I grew up #GE2015
Except for UKIP winning a seat in Scotland (BTW why on earth can't the Western Isles count the votes on Friday and Saturday?), a very satisfactory betting result for me. The Conservatives did a bit better than I expected, but it looks as though they'll finish a smidgen below the 24% line (Phew). Labour safely below their 27% line, that's no surprise. UKIP top, that's no surprise. Greens beat the LibDems (Kerching!) and Lutfur Rahman came through in Tower Hamlets (thanks Neil for the original tip at 5/4, although I didn't take the plunge until the odds had lengthened to 7/4). I was close but got no banana on the LibDem seat total (I'd gone for 2 seats at 4/1)
'Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.'
One of the more feeble excuses for Labour's poor performance,you need to come up with something a bit more convincing.Basic stuff.</blockquote
I note you are unable to refute your basic error. If you want to argue Labour had a bad night by all means do so, just try using like for like comparisons when you do so though there's a good chap.
By the way, I was wondering if this was the Conservatives worst performance in a national election since the Great Reform Act of 1832. I am unsure - perhaps you know ?
On a purely ideological note: Would UKIP prefer to see an independent Scotland outside the EU or a Scotland as part of the UK but still in the EU? (ie which is worse - leaving Westminster or leaving Brussels?)
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..
Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.
And the relevance of that is what? That governments usually get re-elected at their first election after taking office?
Are you really asking me why comparing the electoral performance of a government that has been in office for 4 years against one that has been in office for 12 is not a like for like comparison and is not one that a person could draw any conclusions from ? Really ? I'm astounded.
I'm asking you what you think the implications of the elections just gone are for the one next year.
You have a point that third term governments usually lose. First term governments usually win. The voting figures over the last week don't particularly run counter to that, do they?
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.
I'd be very surprised if it didn't given the vast differences at the last general election. But generally UK polite society is far more uncomfortable with doing this than in the US, so I don't know how available it is.
Here we go again. Look at the total votes cast in London for Labour. Then look at the total votes cast for the Tories. No amount of sub-sectioning will hide what was an absolute hiding for the Tories, and a very eye-catching display by Labour.
Instead of obsessing about immigration, we should instead by analysing why Ed's formula works so much better in big wealthy cities among professionals but much less so with other demographics in the provinces. @Carola nailed the divide this morning.
Labour cheerleaders covering themselves in a London comfort blanket very unlikely to survive even a mild winter. BTW the sneering Londocentric approach the the plebs outside need to follow once they get some educashon is not a good look for the brotherhood!
I think you're right about Ed's strategy for getting into number 10 - don't scare the horses.
Like in the Uncle Remus stories, he wants to lie low and say nuffin.
Euro elections? Just talk about the cost of living. General election? Don't mention any policies until you have to and just talk about the cost of living.
If Ukip try that, replacing Europe with the cost of living, they'll be laughed at.
Which one is really taking the p*ss? The voters may not all be masterminds but they're not entirely stupid.
Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
Way to go UKIP!
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!
Is he the one that caused the floods ?
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.
Patsies for Farage ! I'm sure some blacks voted for Enoch. It didn't mean he was right, it meant they were deluded patsies.
Nice. I do love the way this election has brought out the petty narrow minded bigotries of so many posters. If reality does not fit your perception then of course it must be reality that is wrong.
Labour and LibDem youth leaders fighting like ferrets in a sack. LibDem one thinks the problem is not enough character assassination of Nigel Farage by Labour.
A tremendous night for UKIP. A terrible night for Labour. EdM is a liability. An ok night for the Conservatives. A good night for the Greens A diabolical night for the LibDems. NickC is a liability.
And a pretty poor night for politicalbetting.com, or rather its LibDem supporting blinkered host. It's a shame that like a lot of liberals he actually isn't, and has allowed his illiberal tendencies to cloud his judgement and in particular to silence those with whom he disagrees: like the poor fellow he tiraded for suggesting that the Conservatives will win the popular vote next year when that is looking a very likely outcome.
Extrapolating from this result, the Conservatives will win the GE2015. It's just a question of whether they will have an outright majority. This isn't merely anecdotal, although I've lost count the number of people telling me they voted UKIP this time but will vote Cons for the GE. It's also what the polling suggests. When you switch to GE voting it's clear which way the trend is going and with the economy turning rampant it's only going one way.
Unless, of course, Labour do the sensible thing and replace EdM. That would be the game changer. He's a disaster: 'weird' sums it up, but 'red and weird' is even worse.
Possible value bets to watch for as a result of vote 2014
UKIP to poll over 12% UKIP to outpoll the Lib Dems lib Dem seats under 29 ed Miliband next PM UKIP in Great Yarmouth, Thanet South and one other greens in Norwich South Tories to win 3 Scottish seats Tories to gain Dumfries and Galloway from Labour Tory share to be 35% plus Tories to lose all their 2010 London gains Southampton Itchen to be only Tory gain from Labour in England Lib Dem welsh wipeout Cornwall solid blue Borders solid blue.
Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300 Con 290 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 3 Green 2 Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?
Election after next - May 2020
The FTPA allows for early elections if there is a vote of no confidence in the government and no new government formed within 2 weeks. No need for an amendment.
Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?
Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300 Con 290 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 3 Green 2 Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?
Election after next - May 2020
I'd suggest a deal would be struck that the Tories were satisfied with. ed won't be able to struggle on for five years in minority and the Tories will want to get back in, they both have so,etching to gain from an amendment to the Parliament act. if not, it may well form part of a one year supply and confidence deal with the Lib Dems and SNP/da Oirish
Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
I did make the point a couple if weeks ago that the EU citizens can vote in the EU elections and not at the GE. Given it was so tight might be interesting to know how they voted. Probably disproportionately in London and not Kippers.
A tremendous night for UKIP. A terrible night for Labour. EdM is a liability. An ok night for the Conservatives. A good night for the Greens A diabolical night for the LibDems. NickC is a liability.
And a pretty poor night for politicalbetting.com, or rather its LibDem supporting blinkered host. It's a shame that like a lot of liberals he actually isn't, and has allowed his illiberal tendencies to cloud his judgement and in particular to silence those with whom he disagrees: like the poor fellow he tiraded for suggesting that the Conservatives will win the popular vote next year when that is looking a very likely outcome.
Extrapolating from this result, the Conservatives will win the GE2015. It's just a question of whether they will have an outright majority. This isn't merely anecdotal, although I've lost count the number of people telling me they voted UKIP this time but will vote Cons for the GE. It's also what the polling suggests. When you switch to GE voting it's clear which way the trend is going and with the economy turning rampant it's only going one way.
Unless, of course, Labour do the sensible thing and replace EdM. That would be the game changer. He's a disaster: 'weird' sums it up, but 'red and weird' is even worse.
Er, if a party doesn't win a majority then it hasn't won an election. You mean the Conservatives might be the largest party I think.
Incidentally, I think your remarks about the host of this site are way off beam.
Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300 Con 290 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 3 Green 2 Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?
Election after next - May 2020
If there's a minority government, there's a good chance it would be no confidenced within the five years. With no other viable government, parliament would be dissolved two weeks after the no confidence motion.
'By the way, I was wondering if this was the Conservatives worst performance in a national election since the Great Reform Act of 1832. I am unsure - perhaps you know ?'
At least you got the hand-out from Labour HQ, hopefully it compensates for the whopping 1.5% poll lead and 1Seat Labour surge over the Tories..
Dyed Woolie GE 2015 predicting update following the EU election.
Lab 300 Con 290 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 3 Green 2 Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Problem on that is the Fixed Term Parliament Act which would have to be amended. And if Ed didn't have majority how could he get that through?
Election after next - May 2020
The FTPA allows for early elections if there is a vote of no confidence in the government and no new government formed within 2 weeks. No need for an amendment.
Quite right, there is also the ability for two-thirds of the House of Commons simply to vote for an early election (no confidence vote needed). I fear OGH must be overwrought this morning to forget such basics.
Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?
This kind of nasty attitude is one of the reasons Conservatives do badly in so many parts of the country. It isn't their fault they didn't win there, its the electorates fault for being "German or living in council houses". Priceless but revealing. This too from people who spend no end of time here accusing others of sneering.
Congratulations to UKIP and all its supporters. The next bit is going to be much harder, but it will be fascinating to watch how your policies develop and how the other parties respond.
I still strongly believe that we will get a Hung Parliament next time around and that UKIP's vote will be dramatically down on what it scored on Thursday, but there is certainly something going on. The trick for the UKIP leadership will be to work out what it is. How do you hold together an alliance of disillusioned southern Tories and northern Old Labour supporters who feel they have been abandoned? Social conservatism will get you some of the way, but that is a temporary fix. There has to be more.
As someone on the centre left I very much hope that your rise forces a complacent and clearly London-centric Labour party to think more carefully about other parts of the country. There is a lot to be learned from London - especially in areas such as education - but it also has to be recognised that London is very different and that things which work there are not going to work elsewhere.
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
Way to go UKIP!
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!
Is he the one that caused the floods ?
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.
Patsies for Farage ! I'm sure some blacks voted for Enoch. It didn't mean he was right, it meant they were deluded patsies.
Nice. I do love the way this election has brought out the petty narrow minded bigotries of so many posters. If reality does not fit your perception then of course it must be reality that is wrong.
Anyone who doubts the credentials of UKIP on gay rights is a bigot ? Yeah, that'll be it.
Not a good night for the left in Britain yesterday. The demise of Clegg's Lib Dems is a reasonable palliative though. I couldn't get too depressed when you had beaker turn up on the BBC looking like someone had just died.
Why is Clegg being so silent? Are the plates really shifting? Whatever his dire status, his party's problems won't go away with his resignation. They'll be presented with other ones though. I'd have thought he'd be toughing it out with a public statement by now.
Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?
As a proportion I wouldn't know, but those commuter trains aren't full of cleaners and sandwich shop operatives, are they? If you have some figures then do enlighten us, Mr. Fett.
Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?
This kind of nasty attitude is one of the reasons Conservatives do badly in so many parts of the country. It isn't their fault they didn't win there, its the electorates fault for being "German or living in council houses". Priceless but revealing. This too from people who spend no end of time here accusing others of sneering.
But, you've spent the past few hours sneering and smearing.
'By the way, I was wondering if this was the Conservatives worst performance in a national election since the Great Reform Act of 1832. I am unsure - perhaps you know ?'
At least you got the hand-out from Labour HQ, hopefully it compensates for the whopping 1.5% poll lead and 1Seat Labour surge over the Tories..
Not a good night for the left in Britain yesterday. The demise of Clegg's Lib Dems is a reasonable palliative though. I couldn't get too depressed when you had beaker turn up on the BBC looking like someone had just died.
Why is Clegg being so silent? Are the plates really shifting? Whatever his dire status, his party's problems won't go away with his resignation. They'll be presented with other ones though. I'd have thought he'd be toughing it out with a public statement by now.
The worst thing he could do for the Lib Dems is resign right now, plus who the hell is going to pick up that poisoned chalice.
Lib Dems leaving the coalition at the spring conference and going to confidence & supply for the rest of the term might not be a bad move though !
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
The type of people the Cameroons look down on.
The Conservative party needs to be associated with aspiration, instead its chosen an image of privilege.
A tremendous night for UKIP. A terrible night for Labour. EdM is a liability. An ok night for the Conservatives. A good night for the Greens A diabolical night for the LibDems. NickC is a liability.
And a pretty poor night for politicalbetting.com, or rather its LibDem supporting blinkered host. It's a shame that like a lot of liberals he actually isn't, and has allowed his illiberal tendencies to cloud his judgement and in particular to silence those with whom he disagrees: like the poor fellow he tiraded for suggesting that the Conservatives will win the popular vote next year when that is looking a very likely outcome.
Extrapolating from this result, the Conservatives will win the GE2015. It's just a question of whether they will have an outright majority. This isn't merely anecdotal, although I've lost count the number of people telling me they voted UKIP this time but will vote Cons for the GE. It's also what the polling suggests. When you switch to GE voting it's clear which way the trend is going and with the economy turning rampant it's only going one way.
Unless, of course, Labour do the sensible thing and replace EdM. That would be the game changer. He's a disaster: 'weird' sums it up, but 'red and weird' is even worse.
Er, if a party doesn't win a majority then it hasn't won an election. You mean the Conservatives might be the largest party I think.
Incidentally, I think your remarks about the host of this site are way off beam.
Well let's agree to disagree about Mike, but I'm not alone.
Re 'winning,' yes you're right it was a slightly loose comment but one I thought residents of pb.com would understand. I mean 'win' the popular vote. Under FPTP that doesn't of course equate a win in Westminster seats.
Looks like Labour were only about 34,000 votes ahead of the Tories in England...
It's a GB poll Rod and you got this call wrong. It was clear that Labour wouldn't come third and - like many TV pundits - you made the big mistake of counting without London and the big cities.
Prediction? I simply made a bet, chum, which narrowly failed to come in, but demonstrated it was a value call nevertheless. The final polls were showing Labour 5% ahead of the Tories. Result was 1.5%.
The significance is that Labour underperformed against the Tories, which suits me just fine for my "bigger picture" bets... (^_-)
Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
Total and utter rubbish. What proportion of professional London workers live in Greater London's boundaries do you think?
This kind of nasty attitude is one of the reasons Conservatives do badly in so many parts of the country. It isn't their fault they didn't win there, its the electorates fault for being "German or living in council houses". Priceless but revealing. This too from people who spend no end of time here accusing others of sneering.
But, you've spent the past few hours sneering and smearing.
Congratulations to UKIP and all its supporters. The next bit is going to be much harder, but it will be fascinating to watch how your policies develop and how the other parties respond.
I still strongly believe that we will get a Hung Parliament next time around and that UKIP's vote will be dramatically down on what it scored on Thursday, but there is certainly something going on. The trick for the UKIP leadership will be to work out what it is. How do you hold together an alliance of disillusioned southern Tories and northern Old Labour supporters who feel they have been abandoned? Social conservatism will get you some of the way, but that is a temporary fix. There has to be more.
As someone on the centre left I very much hope that your rise forces a complacent and clearly London-centric Labour party to think more carefully about other parts of the country. There is a lot to be learned from London - especially in areas such as education - but it also has to be recognised that London is very different and that things which work there are not going to work elsewhere.
All very true. Labour did very well in London, but will it play in Port Talbot? Given the electoral maths does Ed need to care? He might get away with it anyway but governing on such a fragile and narrow base won't be easy to say the least.
Comments
'That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious'
Tories 1.5% and one seat behind the main opposition party clearly a disaster.
And compared with 2009 .government party up 8% and opposition down 4% another disaster..
1 in 4 Londoners are graduates.
Compare that to the national rate and come back to us.
Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.
http://labourlist.org/2014/05/labour-needs-to-make-profound-changes-to-win-in-2015/
' Last night being a prime example when those of us pointing out that Lab would beat the Tories because London and Scotland had still to declare were like silent voices in the darkness'
Wrong,several people pointed that out but it doesn't fit your narrative. .
Perhaps it makes you feel a bit better. Perhaps it amuses those who already agree with you. But it won't win over a single floating voter in the coming referendum and, indeed, may even drive them the other way.
It certainly doesn't convince me of the merits of your arguments. It just makes me ignore you.
I'm not on
However, if ever there was going to be a high water mark for UKIP it would be now - a Euro election a year before the general. Time, as always, will tell.
'Error number 4. Not comparing like for like elections. 2009 = governing party in office for 12 years. 2014 = governing party in office for 4 years. Basic stuff.'
One of the more feeble excuses for Labour's poor performance,you need to come up with something a bit more convincing.Basic stuff.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?id=1.113986228&selectionId=3614201
Suzanne Evans @SuzanneEvans1 6m
Just updated my profile. Delighted to announce I've been selected as @ukip PPC for #Shrewsbury & Atcham where I grew up #GE2015
Except for UKIP winning a seat in Scotland (BTW why on earth can't the Western Isles count the votes on Friday and Saturday?), a very satisfactory betting result for me. The Conservatives did a bit better than I expected, but it looks as though they'll finish a smidgen below the 24% line (Phew). Labour safely below their 27% line, that's no surprise. UKIP top, that's no surprise. Greens beat the LibDems (Kerching!) and Lutfur Rahman came through in Tower Hamlets (thanks Neil for the original tip at 5/4, although I didn't take the plunge until the odds had lengthened to 7/4). I was close but got no banana on the LibDem seat total (I'd gone for 2 seats at 4/1)
You simply don't know the time of the day.
PB Tories. Always wrong. Never learn.
UKIP 24 seats 29.1%
Lab 20 25.4%
Con 19 24.6%
Lib Dems 1 6.9%
Others 6 14.2%
You have a point that third term governments usually lose. First term governments usually win. The voting figures over the last week don't particularly run counter to that, do they?
I think you're right about Ed's strategy for getting into number 10 - don't scare the horses.
Like in the Uncle Remus stories, he wants to lie low and say nuffin.
Euro elections? Just talk about the cost of living. General election? Don't mention any policies until you have to and just talk about the cost of living.
If Ukip try that, replacing Europe with the cost of living, they'll be laughed at.
Which one is really taking the p*ss? The voters may not all be masterminds but they're not entirely stupid.
Lab 300
Con 290
Lib Dem 20
UKIP 3
Green 2
Others 35 (includes 18 NI, 3 Plaid and 14 SNP)
Ed Miliband is Prime Minister of a minority government, back to the polls Oct 2015 or May 2016
Hmm.
A terrible night for Labour. EdM is a liability.
An ok night for the Conservatives.
A good night for the Greens
A diabolical night for the LibDems. NickC is a liability.
And a pretty poor night for politicalbetting.com, or rather its LibDem supporting blinkered host. It's a shame that like a lot of liberals he actually isn't, and has allowed his illiberal tendencies to cloud his judgement and in particular to silence those with whom he disagrees: like the poor fellow he tiraded for suggesting that the Conservatives will win the popular vote next year when that is looking a very likely outcome.
Extrapolating from this result, the Conservatives will win the GE2015. It's just a question of whether they will have an outright majority. This isn't merely anecdotal, although I've lost count the number of people telling me they voted UKIP this time but will vote Cons for the GE. It's also what the polling suggests. When you switch to GE voting it's clear which way the trend is going and with the economy turning rampant it's only going one way.
Unless, of course, Labour do the sensible thing and replace EdM. That would be the game changer. He's a disaster: 'weird' sums it up, but 'red and weird' is even worse.
UKIP to poll over 12%
UKIP to outpoll the Lib Dems
lib Dem seats under 29
ed Miliband next PM
UKIP in Great Yarmouth, Thanet South and one other
greens in Norwich South
Tories to win 3 Scottish seats
Tories to gain Dumfries and Galloway from Labour
Tory share to be 35% plus
Tories to lose all their 2010 London gains
Southampton Itchen to be only Tory gain from Labour in England
Lib Dem welsh wipeout
Cornwall solid blue
Borders solid blue.
Election after next - May 2020
Muppet.
Single To Win
2015 or later @ 1/9General Election SpecialsOpen
Year Of Next General Election?
Stake: £100.00
Incidentally, I think your remarks about the host of this site are way off beam.
'By the way, I was wondering if this was the Conservatives worst performance in a national election since the Great Reform Act of 1832. I am unsure - perhaps you know ?'
At least you got the hand-out from Labour HQ, hopefully it compensates for the whopping 1.5% poll lead and 1Seat Labour surge over the Tories..
I still strongly believe that we will get a Hung Parliament next time around and that UKIP's vote will be dramatically down on what it scored on Thursday, but there is certainly something going on. The trick for the UKIP leadership will be to work out what it is. How do you hold together an alliance of disillusioned southern Tories and northern Old Labour supporters who feel they have been abandoned? Social conservatism will get you some of the way, but that is a temporary fix. There has to be more.
As someone on the centre left I very much hope that your rise forces a complacent and clearly London-centric Labour party to think more carefully about other parts of the country. There is a lot to be learned from London - especially in areas such as education - but it also has to be recognised that London is very different and that things which work there are not going to work elsewhere.
Why is Clegg being so silent? Are the plates really shifting? Whatever his dire status, his party's problems won't go away with his resignation. They'll be presented with other ones though. I'd have thought he'd be toughing it out with a public statement by now.
You lost. It happens. Get over it.
So that's a yes then ?
Lib Dems leaving the coalition at the spring conference and going to confidence & supply for the rest of the term might not be a bad move though !
The Conservative party needs to be associated with aspiration, instead its chosen an image of privilege.
Re 'winning,' yes you're right it was a slightly loose comment but one I thought residents of pb.com would understand. I mean 'win' the popular vote. Under FPTP that doesn't of course equate a win in Westminster seats.
The significance is that Labour underperformed against the Tories, which suits me just fine for my "bigger picture" bets... (^_-)
If the result of Nigel v Nick had been UKIP down to a single MEP, do you think our leader would be hanging around?
Has Tower Hamlets Labour got the postal vote out in the Western Isles ?