Has AIFE got up to 1.5% nationally (I know they seem to have with the English regions but were not standing in Wales or Scotland)?
Looks like wily old Shadsy has lured a lot of naive punters who were only thinking about England. AIFE were not on the ballot paper in either Scotland or Wales.
Yes I knew that before punting on it but looking around thought enough dim people in England would get them over 1.5% .Maybe I should move from my spot of it!! Good market making though by shadsy!! Got the line bang on
It is astonishing how astute he usually is in these assessments. Makes other political bookies (eg. BetVictor) look like total amateurs.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
I meant 'convincing' no of course as a yes makes Scot constituencies dead in the water for 2015.
I have no idea, although a 'recovered' Scottish Tory party within the UK would be looking for around, say, 22%, and 7-8 seats with second in a dozen more. That looks like 2 elections away under a continued resurgence. 2015 I'd think4 would be the absolute upper end of expectations, and a lot of that would be just due to the Lib Dem meltdown handing them Berwickshire and perhaps West Aberdeenshire (although I favour SNP there at the moment)
That's a fair point. We are fairly lucky in our reactionary movement, compared with many countries - I'd vote UKIP over Front Nationale or Jobbik or Golden Dawn in a heartbeat.
Oh dear Nick, the perils of the partial quote - I can see their election literature now:
Interesting insights there. Snags are obviously France, who would need to be part of a deal and are not in a mood to compromise, Sweden, which will switch Government (95% certainty) this autumn and Hungary (just naturally awkward and would need to be bought off big time).
Also, whatever it is, it won't be there by 2017 - the EU simply doesn't work that quickly - so Cameron's strategy will presumably be to have a referendum on his negotiating hand (which he'd win) and then say "close enough, we don't need another referendum" if and when a deal was done.
But the main problem as you say is that the available concessions won't be enough for the sceptics - they'll feel it's like the Wilson "renegotiation".
That depends on how keen various governments are on doing the deal. Last night's results were disastrous for Hollande. He may very well be looking at a first round exit in 2017 (note the date!). A deal that would bring his own WWC back onside might be no bad thing for his electoral prospects. If France, Germany, the Nordic countries, Poland and the Dutch are on side, a deal could be done.
If Clegg had anything about him, he'd agree and put forward his own list of preferred reforms (far greater democracy?), acknowledging that there's something deeply rotten in the current set-up and allowing the ball to get rolling now. He won't, of course.
The leader of the fifth party of England and the sixth of Scotland and Wales? Does anyone care what he thinks anymore?
These Euro elections are, to misquote, barely worth a pitcher of warm spit.
May 2015 is the main event and Clegg is highly relevant there.
But a substantial segment of the old centre-left base—the older, white, post-industrial blue collar voters who feel economically and culturally marginalised—went to the Eurosceptic right: to parties (different though they may be in tone and emphasis) like the True Finns, the Front National and UKIP.
These socio-economic forces explain why such parties are almost universally hostile to globalisation and immigration, why they lean towards protectionism and why they engage in the sort of cultural politics that until recently was more common in America than in Europe. It also explains why they rarely thrive in large cities. In provincial towns, villages and suburbs around the continent, people whose jobs and livelihoods have been disrupted by immigration, outsourcing and automation no longer fit into the same social democratic “big tent” as urban professionals, ethnic minority voters, students and public-sector workers. The decline of the trade unions has further added to this sense of alienation from the centre-left establishment.
Economist speaking drivel again. UKIP are pro-globalisation and want to sign trade deals with Brazil and India, and have said so on a number of occasions.
The Economist is writing about the views of UKIP's supporters. Do you have any polling showing them in favour of globalisation?
The Tory vote holding up relatively well is a crumb of comfort, and suggests that there is still all to play for next year. One thing I've been considering is that the rise in support for parties who are to a greater or lesser degree eurosceptic across Europe may paradoxically strengthen Cameron's hand. It may make European governments more receptive to a case for reform.
The great thing about the word "reform" is that it means something different to everybody. I'm still not sure what Cameron actually wants, but I'm pretty sure he's not demanding more protectionism and less globalization.
What I'm told is the following*:
- Amendment on the 'ever closer union' clause in the form of a protocol. [No one cares] - Restrictions on the ability to claim benefits by EU migrants [Everyone agrees] - No further enlargement without very long (20-30 year) transitional arrangement [UK falling into line with other members policy; we were always out on a limb on this - After this it becomes much more difficult. Their view was this was not compelling.
* Important caveat: the government is keeping the cards very close to its chest. The only ones who know their objectives, plans & strategy are Cameron, Osborne, Hague and Llewellyn. If it doesn't come from one of them directly it is either speculation or bullsh1t. I'd put the above list in the category of well-informed speculation.
So in terms of practical powers returned, it's just benefits. Yes, that would be pathetic, and recognised as such. If we look at the polls here, we can see what the public want returned:
- Immigration and border controls - Human rights law - Farming subsidies - Fishing rights
I believe I've seen another poll where they also asked about trade rights and the public wanted that too. I don't see how you can have a repatriation seen as successful without two (or one and two partials) out of those five.
I actually think the "ever closer union" point is much more important than you give it credit for.
But I agree - it's not compelling. That's why I'm waiting to see the outcome of any renegotiation to decide whether I vote to stay in or vote to leave.
@NickPalmer - "Sweden, which will switch Government (95% certainty) "
95% is about right. The Moderate Party (of which I am a member) got absolutely spanked last night (13%). Cannot say that I am surprised. The names at the top of the Moderate MEP list are, to be very kind, very "tired". We desperately need new blood, preferably women, and preferably under the age of 40.
Patrician snobby Stockholmers and Young Conservative type wide-boys go down like dog poo with Swedish voters.
Mr. G, they've won seats in England and Wales, and will pick up a seat in Scotland too.
I do wonder if this will affect how Scots and leftwing areas elsewhere view the Conservatives. Will they remain the evil baby-eaters, or will UKIP assume that mantle and the blues be seen as at least 'better than UKIP'.
Mr. W, the General Election's looking interesting.
Agreed. There are now irrefutable signs that the Scottish Tories are, at last, recovering. I would be astonished if they poll less than 20% of the Scottish vote at the next UK GE. That means that they would have at least 3 Scottish MPs (Mundell + West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine + Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk), and perhaps 1 or 2 more.
Do you think they have a chance in Argyll and Bute?
Absolutely. Argyll & Bute is that rare species: a four-way marginal. In other words, any of the parties could win it, even the Tories.
Note: SLAB had a great by-election gain (from independent SNP) in Oban South and the Isles on Thursday. Their first Argyll&Bute councillor in many years. Their victory went totally unnoticed because of the fuss over the English Euros and locals, but together with their two Fife HOLDS on Thursday, will give them a morale boost.
Actually, talking of ScotTory performance, they outdid the English and Welsh party at a canter I'm going to see what the best odds I can get on a full blue borders result in 2015 after the D and G result and have a nibble. I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home.
Dumfries itself is the interesting one. I suspect that SLAB are extremely worried about that one.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think they'd need to set up a completely new party in the event of a Yes, to be seen to cut all links, perceived and real, with the London Tories who will be busy negotiating away at the same time in the independence talks. Even Murdo Fraser's Bavarian type solution of a devolution and a name change wouldn't cut it. And there is already a conservatives for indy grouping which could act as the nucleus for a new party.
It’s not Clegg that’s the problem. Replace him and the Lib Dems would only circle the bowl that little bit faster.
The killer problem is that their USP has been wiped out. They used to be the all things to all men NOTA party. Well now, because they joined a coalition (any coalition would have been the same), they are not all things to all men. They have had to take a stand on some things. So inevitably one half or other of the party was bound to peel off. Their lefties’ sense of abandonment is intense. Add to that the fact the UKIP have now monopolized the ‘populist, sensible chap, NOTA party ‘ mantle and the LibDems are left with nothing but their beards and their yoghurt.
They’ll cling on as a rump, an irritant and potential hung parliament kingmaker – but the LibDems as a serious political force are done.
But JackW, the LibDems have spent four years acting as though their being in the Coalition is something unutterably horrible. They seem unable to run forward promoting the strong economic growth because they might have to say something nice about George Osborne in the process. And the Tories - they are just frightfully beastly.
Liberal Democrats, you did a WONDERFUL THING! You bed-blocked Labour, you saw off the woeful Gordon Brown, you have delivered tax-free incomes for the poorest in society, you have been party to the right of gay marriage being enacted, you have been part of an economic stability that has allowed employers firstly to retain staff during the recession - and then to take on staff so that unemployment is W-A-Y lower than almost any forecasters dare suggest (and fully half what some on the left screamed it would be).
Unlike Labour, you have a strong case to make on how to run an economy. You could be the Sensible Left of British politics - especially against the twin numpties of Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. Go and shout it from the rooftops - The LibDems have been GOOD FOR BRITAIN! They have been part of a government bringing WORK TO THE WORKERS! But don't be namby-pamby about it. Go for Labour's gonads! (Must be someone in your party with micro-surgery skills?)
Unfortunately, to move forward with this task, you are going to need a new leader....
If all you say there about the LibDems is true, why change the man who led the party in doing it ?
It's also a matter of the replacement - Cable, Farron, Alexander .... Lembt .... LOL.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
But a substantial segment of the old centre-left base—the older, white, post-industrial blue collar voters who feel economically and culturally marginalised—went to the Eurosceptic right: to parties (different though they may be in tone and emphasis) like the True Finns, the Front National and UKIP.
These socio-economic forces explain why such parties are almost universally hostile to globalisation and immigration, why they lean towards protectionism and why they engage in the sort of cultural politics that until recently was more common in America than in Europe. It also explains why they rarely thrive in large cities. In provincial towns, villages and suburbs around the continent, people whose jobs and livelihoods have been disrupted by immigration, outsourcing and automation no longer fit into the same social democratic “big tent” as urban professionals, ethnic minority voters, students and public-sector workers. The decline of the trade unions has further added to this sense of alienation from the centre-left establishment.
Economist speaking drivel again. UKIP are pro-globalisation and want to sign trade deals with Brazil and India, and have said so on a number of occasions.
The Economist is writing about the views of UKIP's supporters. Do you have any polling showing them in favour of globalisation?
@SamCoatesTimes: If all that wasn't enough for Nick Clegg, Lord Ashcroft will unveil a battle ground poll of LD marginals next month
@SamCoatesTimes: Lib Dems last remaining claim is they r doing OK in held seats. There is a chance The Lord A battleground poll could explode this assertion
Interesting insights there. Snags are obviously France, who would need to be part of a deal and are not in a mood to compromise, Sweden, which will switch Government (95% certainty) this autumn and Hungary (just naturally awkward and would need to be bought off big time).
Also, whatever it is, it won't be there by 2017 - the EU simply doesn't work that quickly - so Cameron's strategy will presumably be to have a referendum on his negotiating hand (which he'd win) and then say "close enough, we don't need another referendum" if and when a deal was done.
But the main problem as you say is that the available concessions won't be enough for the sceptics - they'll feel it's like the Wilson "renegotiation".
That depends on how keen various governments are on doing the deal. Last night's results were disastrous for Hollande. He may very well be looking at a first round exit in 2017 (note the date!). A deal that would bring his own WWC back onside might be no bad thing for his electoral prospects. If France, Germany, the Nordic countries, Poland and the Dutch are on side, a deal could be done.
If Clegg had anything about him, he'd agree and put forward his own list of preferred reforms (far greater democracy?), acknowledging that there's something deeply rotten in the current set-up and allowing the ball to get rolling now. He won't, of course.
The leader of the fifth party of England and the sixth of Scotland and Wales? Does anyone care what he thinks anymore?
While he's deputy PM and holds Cameron's majority in his hand, yes.
Now of course not all SLAB will vote no (tho the vast majority of Con will).......but it's hardly got "Yes landslide" written all over it....
If you assume 25% of Labour and LDs will vote yes, then the balance of Indyref is far closer - about 45/55 if my mental arithmetic on the BBC data is correct - with some months to go. And remember that this does not allow for the impact of UKIP winning, and Labour only tying for 2nd equal with the Tories, and a majority of right-wing parties (not counting Labour) in the UK as a whole. The turnout is also about half of the likely Indyref turnout.
And remember it is not Indyref but an election - where the governing party held on to its vote in mid term. Certainly mixed news but not that much of a change except for LDs and UKIP. [edted to remove stray text] I'm not sure I would be too happy if I were Mr Miliband.
Carnyx, twisted Tory Scottish hating logic, apples and oranges points to pears.
PS. I have to say though that UKIP getting a seat in Scotland is very depressing, have to wonder what cretins voted that way.
The detailed Scottish numbers will bare some close scrutiny but my first thoughts were that the Conservatives polled very decently, YES will be concerned and the Scottish LibDems polled better than some regions in England.
I don't see this having any bearing on the referendum , good to see Lib Dems wiped out but dire that UKIP get to 10%. SNP winning after so long in government shows how well they are doing even if it would have been better to get the 3rd seat.
Clearly there's no direct correlation as all parties have voters who do not follow their party line on the referendum however in broad terms I'd be somewhat happier looking at the detailed results from the NO camp than YES.
However let's not get too overheated on this angle as these are Euro elections that have little relevance and are the greatest protest vote available to the punters.
I agree, though it is a bit worrying that they get even 10%, only thing they can be voting for is against immigration. For Scotland this is madness as we absolutely need immigration and get too little of it at present. My concern is that there are enough of these badly educated idiots to make a difference, unfortunately confirms my worst fears.
Maybe they are voting against EU membership? Just an idea.
Mr. G, they've won seats in England and Wales, and will pick up a seat in Scotland too.
I do wonder if this will affect how Scots and leftwing areas elsewhere view the Conservatives. Will they remain the evil baby-eaters, or will UKIP assume that mantle and the blues be seen as at least 'better than UKIP'.
Mr. W, the General Election's looking interesting.
Agreed. There are now irrefutable signs that the Scottish Tories are, at last, recovering. I would be astonished if they poll less than 20% of the Scottish vote at the next UK GE. That means that they would have at least 3 Scottish MPs (Mundell + West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine + Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk), and perhaps 1 or 2 more.
Do you think they have a chance in Argyll and Bute?
Absolutely. Argyll & Bute is that rare species: a four-way marginal. In other words, any of the parties could win it, even the Tories.
Note: SLAB had a great by-election gain (from independent SNP) in Oban South and the Isles on Thursday. Their first Argyll&Bute councillor in many years. Their victory went totally unnoticed because of the fuss over the English Euros and locals, but together with their two Fife HOLDS on Thursday, will give them a morale boost.
Actually, talking of ScotTory performance, they outdid the English and Welsh party at a canter I'm going to see what the best odds I can get on a full blue borders result in 2015 after the D and G result and have a nibble. I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home.
Dumfries itself is the interesting one. I suspect that SLAB are extremely worried about that one.
Yes, the Tories have badly under performed, and Labour over performed there since 2005
As a general point, say there is an in/out referendum in 2017, what happens to UKIP after that as by having the referendum they have achieved their aim.
I managed to crystallise my Dewey eyed English 'Tory' view on independence last night.
We bribed Scotland to join in 1707, it would be a disastrous miscalculation and compounding of that historical error to blackmail them into staying in 2010.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Sounds about right, for a conservative party - though I am not sure it will do as well if it is still called the same old C & U Party (NB Branch).
And will it be one party, I wonder? It's possible that in the event of a Yes we may end up with three right wing parties (ignoring BNP and BF) - the old style Tories for which the OAPs will still vote out of habit, the UKIP for the EU-phobes, and a new style progressive conservative party growing from the indy campaign mob - in time for the next UKGE (assuming it happens before and not contemporaneously with indy day). But early times yet. Main thing is that the events of the last few days have given us new things to think about.
As globalization is inextricably tied to migration, I suspect that UKIP voters would be not so keen.
The other EU nations eurosceptic parties are not so different. We are more European than we sometimes want to believe.
Culturally, politically and intellectually we are far closer to the US, Canada and Australia than to Europe. Are you advocating a binding union with those nations?
Interesting insights there. Snags are obviously France, who would need to be part of a deal and are not in a mood to compromise, Sweden, which will switch Government (95% certainty) this autumn and Hungary (just naturally awkward and would need to be bought off big time).
Also, whatever it is, it won't be there by 2017 - the EU simply doesn't work that quickly - so Cameron's strategy will presumably be to have a referendum on his negotiating hand (which he'd win) and then say "close enough, we don't need another referendum" if and when a deal was done.
But the main problem as you say is that the available concessions won't be enough for the sceptics - they'll feel it's like the Wilson "renegotiation".
That depends on how keen various governments are on doing the deal. Last night's results were disastrous for Hollande. He may very well be looking at a first round exit in 2017 (note the date!). A deal that would bring his own WWC back onside might be no bad thing for his electoral prospects. If France, Germany, the Nordic countries, Poland and the Dutch are on side, a deal could be done.
If Clegg had anything about him, he'd agree and put forward his own list of preferred reforms (far greater democracy?), acknowledging that there's something deeply rotten in the current set-up and allowing the ball to get rolling now. He won't, of course.
The leader of the fifth party of England and the sixth of Scotland and Wales? Does anyone care what he thinks anymore?
While he's deputy PM and holds Cameron's majority in his hand, yes.
I think that overstates it. Cam is in a position to fight a campaign, Clegg is in a position to lead his party into final and permanent night.
Looking at the results last night if Cameron can't get a decent deal on the return of powers now, he never will.
There hasn't been a better time for decades.
Agreed. Not quite certain how bold Caneron would be if he's still PM in his demands, but having spent a lot of time in Germany over the years in my view the Germans are puzzled by us, but certainly see us as ones to hang onto if at all possible, and don't fancy being left with a few northern tiddlers, a bunch of poor Easterners and Club Med.
In that sense the British Euro result will concentrate minds a bit. Merkel may try to balance between throwing enough red meat to the Brits without destabilising the European ideal.
JackW, I was intrigued by the timing of Farron saying the party had to get behind Nick Clegg. After the poor show in the local elections, but before the horror show of the Euros. He could now easily say, "well, I showed my loyalty to Nick. But that was before the losses in the losses. Down to one seat - that changes things..."
Although in reality there was every likelihood of the pro-Euro LibDems having a token presence in Brussels...or even none at all.
''In that sense the British Euro result will concentrate minds a bit.''
The French one even more so, I would have thought. Its also a matter of who is paying. The Germans would certainly not want to lose the EUs only other major net contributor.
As a general point, say there is an in/out referendum in 2017, what happens to UKIP after that as by having the referendum they have achieved their aim.
If it was in 2017 then the referendum would be fought on the basis of a "renegotiation" that hadn't actually been turned into a treaty and ratified, and would have a very strong probability of subsequently coming unstuck. Even if it ultimately passed, it would certainly have been over-promised during the campaign (everybody over-promises in referendum campaigns) so UKIP could reasonably say they'd been screwed. So if the vote was for "in", they'd just go back to demanding another referendum.
If the vote was "out", the next question would be what kind of "out", which would make the EU the main topic of British politics for the next decade and leave plenty of room for UKIP. In particular they'd have a very strong narrative about how the voters had been betrayed by the Europhile politicians doing the exit negotiations when they failed to deliver some of the contradictory things the people who had voted for Brexit were hoping for.
But a substantial segment of the old centre-left base—the older, white, post-industrial blue collar voters who feel economically and culturally marginalised—went to the Eurosceptic right: to parties (different though they may be in tone and emphasis) like the True Finns, the Front National and UKIP.
These socio-economic forces explain why such parties are almost universally hostile to globalisation and immigration, why they lean towards protectionism and why they engage in the sort of cultural politics that until recently was more common in America than in Europe. It also explains why they rarely thrive in large cities. In provincial towns, villages and suburbs around the continent, people whose jobs and livelihoods have been disrupted by immigration, outsourcing and automation no longer fit into the same social democratic “big tent” as urban professionals, ethnic minority voters, students and public-sector workers. The decline of the trade unions has further added to this sense of alienation from the centre-left establishment.
Economist speaking drivel again. UKIP are pro-globalisation and want to sign trade deals with Brazil and India, and have said so on a number of occasions.
The Economist is writing about the views of UKIP's supporters. Do you have any polling showing them in favour of globalisation?
No. The Economist is writing about its own perception of the views of UKIP supporters based upon its own view of both the party and the world.
Given that many of us would explicitly reject both the hostile perception and the Pro-EU world view espoused by the Economist it really says nothing about the real views of UKIP supporters and plenty about the Economist's own bias.
All three countries that you mention have historical and cultural links (and incidentally have been much changed by large numbers of immigrants from developing countries in recent years).
But when I visit America and Canada I realize how European the mentality of the British are in terms of government, welfare state and social aspiration.
As globalization is inextricably tied to migration, I suspect that UKIP voters would be not so keen.
The other EU nations eurosceptic parties are not so different. We are more European than we sometimes want to believe.
Culturally, politically and intellectually we are far closer to the US, Canada and Australia than to Europe. Are you advocating a binding union with those nations?
As a general point, say there is an in/out referendum in 2017, what happens to UKIP after that as by having the referendum they have achieved their aim.
If it was in 2017 then the referendum would be fought on the basis of a "renegotiation" that hadn't actually been turned into a treaty and ratified, and would have a very strong probability of subsequently coming unstuck. Even if it ultimately passed, it would certainly have been over-promised during the campaign (everybody over-promises in referendum campaigns) so UKIP could reasonably say they'd been screwed. So if the vote was for "in", they'd just go back to demanding another referendum.
If the vote was "out", the next question would be what kind of "out", which would make the EU the main topic of British politics for the next decade and leave plenty of room for UKIP. In particular they'd have a very strong narrative about how the voters had been betrayed by the Europhile politicians doing the exit negotiations when they failed to deliver some of the contradictory things the people who had voted for Brexit were hoping for.
Farage has said in the past that UKIP would have no purpose and no point once the UK had voted to leave the EU. But he is, at the end of the day, a politician and I can't see him giving up power so easily.
"Given that many of us would explicitly reject both the hostile perception and the Pro-EU world view espoused by the Economist it really says nothing about the real views of UKIP supporters and plenty about the Economist's own bias."
Globalisation and increased movement of peoples aren't an option, they are a fact. Governments can try to alleviate the effects on their own citizens by sensible immigration laws that don;t hurt commerce but prevent undesirables coming and act against cultural change that is too rapid and thus divisive and alienating.
You could argue that a succession of governments in the past 40 years have done the opposite. They've made the effects of globalisation on citizens far, far worse than they needed to be.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Woolie, yes but their vote is too spread out apart from the border area and south ayrshire ( millionaire retirement area ). They may get to a handful but can assure you their performance in Holyrood is dire and their leader lamentable. You would have to be desperate or die hard to be voting for the people currently running the party. I think UKIP vote is purely made up of the uneducated dimwits who have swallowed the "you will be swamped by immigrants" message that media and BT have been peddling. I doubt Tories will see 8 MP's in my lifetime.
PS: On last point I mean if no independence. Independence and a clear out and you could see them doing very well.
All three countries that you mention have historical and cultural links (and incidentally have been much changed by large numbers of immigrants from developing countries in recent years).
But when I visit America and Canada I realize how European the mentality of the British are in terms of government, welfare state and social aspiration.
As with the Economist piece, that says far more about your perception than it does about the countries concerned.
I wonder how much time you have really spent living and working in Europe to come to that conclusion.
Now of course not all SLAB will vote no (tho the vast majority of Con will).......but it's hardly got "Yes landslide" written all over it....
Carnyx, twisted Tory Scottish hating logic, apples and oranges points to pears.
PS. I have to say though that UKIP getting a seat in Scotland is very depressing, have to wonder what cretins voted that way.
I don't see this having any bearing on the referendum , good to see Lib Dems wiped out but dire that UKIP get to 10%. SNP winning after so long in government shows how well they are doing even if it would have been better to get the 3rd seat.
Clearly there's no direct correlation as all parties have voters who do not follow their party line on the referendum however in broad terms I'd be somewhat happier looking at the detailed results from the NO camp than YES.
However let's not get too overheated on this angle as these are Euro elections that have little relevance and are the greatest protest vote available to the punters.
I agree, though it is a bit worrying that they get even 10%, only thing they can be voting for is against immigration. For Scotland this is madness as we absolutely need immigration and get too little of it at present. My concern is that there are enough of these badly educated idiots to make a difference, unfortunately confirms my worst fears.
Maybe they are voting against EU membership? Just an idea.
John, Everyone knows it is immigration, they are voting UKIP due to scaremongering by BT and media.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Woolie, yes but their vote is too spread out apart from the border area and south ayrshire ( millionaire retirement area ). They may get to a handful but can assure you their performance in Holyrood is dire and their leader lamentable. You would have to be desperate or die hard to be voting for the people currently running the party. I think UKIP vote is purely made up of the uneducated dimwits who have swallowed the "you will be swamped by immigrants" message that media and BT have been peddling. I doubt Tories will see 8 MP's in my lifetime.
Even you must realize that your credibility as a prognosticator on Scottish affairs is worthless. I recommend a long period of silence and study from you.
But a substantial segment of the old centre-left base—the older, white, post-industrial blue collar voters who feel economically and culturally marginalised—went to the Eurosceptic right: to parties (different though they may be in tone and emphasis) like the True Finns, the Front National and UKIP.
These socio-economic forces explain why such parties are almost universally hostile to globalisation and immigration, why they lean towards protectionism and why they engage in the sort of cultural politics that until recently was more common in America than in Europe. It also explains why they rarely thrive in large cities. In provincial towns, villages and suburbs around the continent, people whose jobs and livelihoods have been disrupted by immigration, outsourcing and automation no longer fit into the same social democratic “big tent” as urban professionals, ethnic minority voters, students and public-sector workers. The decline of the trade unions has further added to this sense of alienation from the centre-left establishment.
Economist speaking drivel again. UKIP are pro-globalisation and want to sign trade deals with Brazil and India, and have said so on a number of occasions.
The Economist is writing about the views of UKIP's supporters. Do you have any polling showing them in favour of globalisation?
the real views of UKIP supporters
Are in favour of globalisation, as Socrates claims?
Seems to run contrary to most of the polling I've seen - we already know they are least in favour of foreign neighbours......
Well done to Ukip in getting a Scottish seat - and a bad night for YES as there was no appetite for more Nats.
LoL, only a pea brain like yourself could come up with crap like that, you would be happy that the anti foreigners brigade voted UKIP, matches your tattoos I bet.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Woolie, yes but their vote is too spread out apart from the border area and south ayrshire ( millionaire retirement area ). They may get to a handful but can assure you their performance in Holyrood is dire and their leader lamentable. You would have to be desperate or die hard to be voting for the people currently running the party. I think UKIP vote is purely made up of the uneducated dimwits who have swallowed the "you will be swamped by immigrants" message that media and BT have been peddling. I doubt Tories will see 8 MP's in my lifetime.
I agree they need a serious reorganisation and renewed effort, and Queen Annabel going was not good for me. Just for fun, let's see if I can find 8 seats that 'might' elect a Tory.........
Dumfresshire etc Dumfries and Galloway Berwickshire, Roxborough etc (they ought to expct to win all 3 in a good year)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Argyll and Bute Renfrewshire East (straw clutch)
Edinburgh SW Perth and North Perthshire Angus Moray Banff and Buchan
Those are the only 11 I can see them having any chance in, and in all of them(Argyll aside) they ought to be second if they don't win.
Yeah, 8 of them is optimistic!!
If they can recover to 22% in. GE, they might get 6
As globalization is inextricably tied to migration, I suspect that UKIP voters would be not so keen.
The other EU nations eurosceptic parties are not so different. We are more European than we sometimes want to believe.
Culturally, politically and intellectually we are far closer to the US, Canada and Australia than to Europe. Are you advocating a binding union with those nations?
Canada and Australia possibly. But the USA? I'm not so sure. British people were bewildered at the election of George W Bush and whilst the current President is more to our liking he's very divisive stateside.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Woolie, yes but their vote is too spread out apart from the border area and south ayrshire ( millionaire retirement area ). They may get to a handful but can assure you their performance in Holyrood is dire and their leader lamentable. You would have to be desperate or die hard to be voting for the people currently running the party. I think UKIP vote is purely made up of the uneducated dimwits who have swallowed the "you will be swamped by immigrants" message that media and BT have been peddling. I doubt Tories will see 8 MP's in my lifetime.
Even you must realize that your credibility as a prognosticator on Scottish affairs is worthless. I recommend a long period of silence and study from you.
Based on last nights results where Labour did particularly badly in the South East and the Conservatives quite well,maybe Labour`s general election strategy should focus on the Midlands,North and London and forget the South East.
As things stand,hung Parliament with Labour largest party but the Conservatives could become the largest party if Ed Miliband doesn`t offer anything eye-catching to the public.He didn`t say a thing about Europe for the European elections.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Woolie, yes but their vote is too spread out apart from the border area and south ayrshire ( millionaire retirement area ). They may get to a handful but can assure you their performance in Holyrood is dire and their leader lamentable. You would have to be desperate or die hard to be voting for the people currently running the party. I think UKIP vote is purely made up of the uneducated dimwits who have swallowed the "you will be swamped by immigrants" message that media and BT have been peddling. I doubt Tories will see 8 MP's in my lifetime.
I agree they need a serious reorganisation and renewed effort, and Queen Annabel going was not good for me. Just for fun, let's see if I can find 8 seats that 'might' elect a Tory.........
Dumfresshire etc Dumfries and Galloway Berwickshire, Roxborough etc (they ought to expct to win all 3 in a good year)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Argyll and Bute Renfrewshire East (straw clutch)
Edinburgh SW Perth and North Perthshire Angus Moray Banff and Buchan
Those are the only 11 I can see them having any chance in, and in all of them(Argyll aside) they ought to be second if they don't win.
Yeah, 8 of them is optimistic!!
If they can recover to 22% in. GE, they might get 6
In 2015, I'm backing 3
Good luck Woolie, they may actually do better if September vote is YES.
I have lived, studied and worked in Australia, USA and New Zealand, but only briefly visited Canada. I have never worked in Continental Europe, but have family there and work with a number of Europeans at both University and Hospital.
I like the Anglophone countries but they have all become a lot less Anglo in recent decades, and more Asian. Apart from language I am culturally more at home in europe, I think like the people there. In part it may be because of my background in medicine and university life.
All three countries that you mention have historical and cultural links (and incidentally have been much changed by large numbers of immigrants from developing countries in recent years).
But when I visit America and Canada I realize how European the mentality of the British are in terms of government, welfare state and social aspiration.
As with the Economist piece, that says far more about your perception than it does about the countries concerned.
I wonder how much time you have really spent living and working in Europe to come to that conclusion.
Socrates - The Economist (which I don't always agree with) are referring to Ukip VOTERS. If there's one thing we should have learned in recent years be it new Labour, Tory or Lib Dem it's that the values of the Party leaderships can be quite different from the values of those who vote for them.
The European elections work for Ukip because they can make it about a single issue. Come the GE next year Farage will need more policies. Free market libertarianism might not be to the liking of many of those who've just voted Ukip.
The only ones who know their objectives, plans & strategy are Cameron, Osborne, Hague and Llewellyn.
The secret plan to win the war. Worked for Nixon.
No, it just means that 99.9% of stuff published on this site - and in the papers - is garbage.
At least I admit it...
Sure, there's no good public information on what the plan is. There's a worked-out plan, on some very complicated issues that require a lot of advice from a lot of different people, but they've succeeded in keeping it secret, for no apparent reason. Alternatively, there is no plan, just a political requirement to pretend they have one.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Woolie, yes but their vote is too spread out apart from the border area and south ayrshire ( millionaire retirement area ). They may get to a handful but can assure you their performance in Holyrood is dire and their leader lamentable. You would have to be desperate or die hard to be voting for the people currently running the party. I think UKIP vote is purely made up of the uneducated dimwits who have swallowed the "you will be swamped by immigrants" message that media and BT have been peddling. I doubt Tories will see 8 MP's in my lifetime.
Even you must realize that your credibility as a prognosticator on Scottish affairs is worthless. I recommend a long period of silence and study from you.
F*ck off cretin
Take a break in your Bavarian Alps where you can commune with the spirit of your lost leader and plan.
There was BTW a recent by election discussed on PB where the LDs didn't do so well. It was in Caol and Mallaig. There was not a lot of discussion on PB IIRC despite it being an area famous for the Glenfinnan monument of the '45 Rising, Harry Potter, steam trains, and kippers ... and it's complicated by being a by election in a list voting ward, and by the presence of Independents (not the indyref or the Puritan kind). However, you should be able to find the basic details and locate it on PB from this - http://blog.scottishelections.org.uk/2014/04/by-election-preview-1-may-2014.html
[edit: may be wrong in my memory of the result - complicated anyway by the ovting system]
Well, the usual suspects provided us with a fantastic night of entertainment on PB.com. Although we didn't get predictions of a Tory surge in Edinburgh we did, among other dimwitted highlights, get to enjoy the following:
1. Assorted harrumphing about how it was typical of the EU that Britain obeys the EU rules on revealing exit polls when no other countries bother at all. Actually it is British law that forbids the revealing of exit polls before 10pm, as clearly stated by Dimbleby at the start of the BBC's coverage, but who cares about fact when you can have a good anti European rant eh ?
2. Lord Ashscroft's exit poll showing Labour in third was "terrible and disastrous" for Labour. Lord Ashcroft then tweeted that he hadn't actually done an exit poll but this didn't stop our electoral pseuds, oh no. A non existent exit poll was terrible for Labour.
3. Numerous predictions and assertions that Labour were going to finish third based on the fact that they were in third place before their strongest region, London, and Scotland declared. That's rather like saying Obama wouldn't win before California had declared but it didn't stop our electoral know nothings here.
4. Scott P's revelation that we can "do something about immigration" by having an economic crisis like Greece. Let us hope the Conservatives don't hire him as an economic advisor.
5. Comparisons of the electoral position of a government that has been in office for 4 years against a government that had been in office for 12 years and drawing electoral conclusions from this useless non like for like comparison.
I'm sure I've missed a few more.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Woolie, yes but their vote is too spread out apart from the border area and south ayrshire ( millionaire retirement area ). They may get to a handful but can assure you their performance in Holyrood is dire and their leader lamentable. You would have to be desperate or die hard to be voting for the people currently running the party. I think UKIP vote is purely made up of the uneducated dimwits who have swallowed the "you will be swamped by immigrants" message that media and BT have been peddling. I doubt Tories will see 8 MP's in my lifetime.
Even you must realize that your credibility as a prognosticator on Scottish affairs is worthless. I recommend a long period of silence and study from you.
F*ck off cretin
Take a break in your Bavarian Alps where you can commune with the spirit of your lost leader and plan.
Now, now. That's you lost the argument under Goodwin's Law. All you need to do now is to mention Braveheart and that's Gibson's Law as well.
As a general point, say there is an in/out referendum in 2017, what happens to UKIP after that as by having the referendum they have achieved their aim.
If it was in 2017 then the referendum would be fought on the basis of a "renegotiation" that hadn't actually been turned into a treaty and ratified, and would have a very strong probability of subsequently coming unstuck. Even if it ultimately passed, it would certainly have been over-promised during the campaign (everybody over-promises in referendum campaigns) so UKIP could reasonably say they'd been screwed. So if the vote was for "in", they'd just go back to demanding another referendum.
If the vote was "out", the next question would be what kind of "out", which would make the EU the main topic of British politics for the next decade and leave plenty of room for UKIP. In particular they'd have a very strong narrative about how the voters had been betrayed by the Europhile politicians doing the exit negotiations when they failed to deliver some of the contradictory things the people who had voted for Brexit were hoping for.
Farage has said in the past that UKIP would have no purpose and no point once the UK had voted to leave the EU. But he is, at the end of the day, a politician and I can't see him giving up power so easily.
It's understandable that Farage doesn't currently want to bother the voters with all the various shades and complexities of "out", especially since they involve tensions and trade-offs that he doesn't need to acknowledge right now. But the range of plausible "out" scenarios is far wider than the difference between the status quo and the least radical form of "out". It's pretty much unthinkable that UKIP would want to leave that conversation to the mainstream parties they'd just defeated.
Now of course not all SLAB will vote no (tho the vast majority of Con will).......but it's hardly got "Yes landslide" written all over it....
Carnyx, twisted Tory Scottish hating logic, apples and oranges points to pears.
PS. I have to say though that UKIP getting a seat in Scotland is very depressing, have to wonder what cretins voted that way.
I don't see this having any bearing on the referendum , good to see Lib Dems wiped out but dire that UKIP get to 10%. SNP winning after so long in government shows how well they are doing even if it would have been better to get the 3rd seat.
Clearly there's no direct correlation as all parties have voters who do not follow their party line on the referendum however in broad terms I'd be somewhat happier looking at the detailed results from the NO camp than YES.
However let's not get too overheated on this angle as these are Euro elections that have little relevance and are the greatest protest vote available to the punters.
I agree, though it is a bit worrying that they get even 10%, only thing they can be voting for is against immigration. For Scotland this is madness as we absolutely need immigration and get too little of it at present. My concern is that there are enough of these badly educated idiots to make a difference, unfortunately confirms my worst fears.
Maybe they are voting against EU membership? Just an idea.
John, Everyone knows it is immigration, they are voting UKIP due to scaremongering by BT and media.
They're an anti-EU party, only part of that anti-EUness is about immigration, it was an EP election, doesn't seem unreasonable that 10% of the Scottish population might be Eurosceptic. In any case, I thought you were a centre-right Snipper, surprised you would believe in unfettered immigration and the Scottish people not being able to state who comes to live in Scotland and on what terms.
Poland - what's all that about? A centre-right government and a conservative opposition - and a party that wants to disenfranchise women. A PBers dream???
Looks like Labour were only about 34,000 votes ahead of the Tories in England...
Thinking about my prediction I did at least get Labour almost spot on. The Tories did about 4.5% better than I'd expected though. In hindsight I paid too much attention to the latest polls, forgetting that many people would already have voted.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Even you must realize that your credibility as a prognosticator on Scottish affairs is worthless. I recommend a long period of silence and study from you.
He's not the only one:
Thus....[The SNP] campaign fell victim to mismanaged expectations, bringing to mind the local government elections of 2012 when although the SNP was the largest party in terms of votes it failed to take Glasgow City Council as confidently predicted by leader Alex Salmond.
“My lot shouldn’t have built up expectations,” one Yes Scotland source told me. “So stupid.”
Although the SNP went into the election with two seats and emerged with the same pair, Ukip’s success is profoundly damaging for a central element of the pro-independence narrative: that Ukip’s rise south of the Border proved that England and Scotland were countries moving in different directions, not just in electoral terms but when it came to a generally vague sense of “Scottish values”.
"I've got a feeling that might be their only 3 unless it's no and the SNP fall back/tartan Tories wander home. "
I was thinking the same, do we know how many ex tartan Tories now support the SNP and if so what %age are likely to revert to their former party under your scenario?
There will be next to none on a NO vote and if YES it would need a clear out of the current rubbish that is the regional London Tory party. They have a very very long way to go before they even get close to getting a handful of MP's. They are still hated with a vengeance.
I think that's a little harsh, Malc. They are clearly very unpopular still, but they held on against the odds and despite a 10% UKIP vote in Scotland, and topped the poll in most of the borders. I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
Woolie, yes but their vote is too spread out apart from the border area and south ayrshire ( millionaire retirement area ). They may get to a handful but can assure you their performance in Holyrood is dire and their leader lamentable. You would have to be desperate or die hard to be voting for the people currently running the party. I think UKIP vote is purely made up of the uneducated dimwits who have swallowed the "you will be swamped by immigrants" message that media and BT have been peddling. I doubt Tories will see 8 MP's in my lifetime.
Even you must realize that your credibility as a prognosticator on Scottish affairs is worthless. I recommend a long period of silence and study from you.
F*ck off cretin
Take a break in your Bavarian Alps where you can commune with the spirit of your lost leader and plan.
Now, now. That's you lost the argument under Goodwin's Law. All you need to do now is to mention Braveheart and that's Gibson's Law as well.
</block-quote
Malcolm is a foul poster who damages the SNP and Yes by association. He should be ostracized by decent Scots like yourself.
Morning all. Worth noting that many predictions, including that of Rod Crosby, for Labour to come third were wrong. We live in an increasingly polarised country and he who extrapolates without the big cities declared risks looking foolish.
The only ones who know their objectives, plans & strategy are Cameron, Osborne, Hague and Llewellyn.
The secret plan to win the war. Worked for Nixon.
No, it just means that 99.9% of stuff published on this site - and in the papers - is garbage.
At least I admit it...
Sure, there's no good public information on what the plan is. There's a worked-out plan, on some very complicated issues that require a lot of advice from a lot of different people, but they've succeeded in keeping it secret, for no apparent reason. Alternatively, there is no plan, just a political requirement to pretend they have one.
Occam's Razor: There is no plan.
There's plenty of assessment work going on, discussions with various leaders, etc. Trying to figure out what might be deliverable and appealing (e.g. why do you think the benefits things has been briefed so heavily) But it's all different options - the actual strategy, objectives and tactics are closely held.
Liar MPs @LiarMPs 1h In recent elections the LibDems have been beaten by an Elvis impersonator, a penguin & now the Green Party. For Gods sake don't sack Clegg
Good morning all and what a night last night was. Thanks to OGH for confirming YouGov was closest pollster. London appears to have been the difference between Labour and the Tories.
Here in Scotland a very pleasing result. Tory vote up and only a few thousand votes away from winning a second seat when many on here and elsewhere had us losing our seat a few weeks ago. Tories winning Edinburgh West, East Renfewshire, South Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway and Scottish Borders was also very encouraging.
Well done to the SNP beating Labour but perhaps now Malcolm and others will cut the crap about Scotland being a Tory free zone given there were 230,000 Scots Tory votes on Thursday.
For me the most interesting reaction last night was Dan Hannan praising the campaign David Cameron had led. Now on to Newark.
You come across as a very reasonable and thoughtful person in most of your postings, yet in common with some others, you lose a sense of perspective when it comes to Ukip. I had an interesting conversation on Thursday night when a friend made similar comments. I mentioned that I'd voted Ukip for the first ever time. "Ah," he said. "But you just did it for devilment."
There may be some truth in that, but it 's not the full story. Ukip can reflect the annoyance that voters feel when being told what's good for them.
The important next step for Ukip is their manifesto in September. It will be cherry-picked and distorted - that is politics - but if if, as I suspect, it's a mixture of socially conservative and economically left policies, the established parties may need to worry. And to be honest, I quite like the odd, inarticulate spokesperson that they sometimes put up. I happily put up with the LD oddities - I quite liked Tim Farron's peculiar excuses last night, for instance.
UKIP are a party of hatred and division, seeking to manufacture votes from the fears of others. The best that can be said of them is that others in other countries do so more vigorously and still more blatantly.
On the plus side, they made me a decent amount of money last night.
Looks like Labour were only about 34,000 votes ahead of the Tories in England...
It's a GB poll Rod and you got this call wrong. It was clear that Labour wouldn't come third and - like many TV pundits - you made the big mistake of counting without London and the big cities.
Well, the usual suspects provided us with a fantastic night of entertainment on PB.com. Although we didn't get predictions of a Tory surge in Edinburgh we did, among other dimwitted highlights, get to enjoy the following:
1. Assorted harrumphing about how it was typical of the EU that Britain obeys the EU rules on revealing exit polls when no other countries bother at all. Actually it is British law that forbids the revealing of exit polls before 10pm, as clearly stated by Dimbleby at the start of the BBC's coverage, but who cares about fact when you can have a good anti European rant eh ?
2. Lord Ashscroft's exit poll showing Labour in third was "terrible and disastrous" for Labour. Lord Ashcroft then tweeted that he hadn't actually done an exit poll but this didn't stop our electoral pseuds, oh no. A non existent exit poll was terrible for Labour.
3. Numerous predictions and assertions that Labour were going to finish third based on the fact that they were in third place before their strongest region, London, and Scotland declared. That's rather like saying Obama wouldn't win before California had declared but it didn't stop our electoral know nothings here.
4. Scott P's revelation that we can "do something about immigration" by having an economic crisis like Greece. Let us hope the Conservatives don't hire him as an economic advisor.
5. Comparisons of the electoral position of a government that has been in office for 4 years against a government that had been in office for 12 years and drawing electoral conclusions from this useless non like for like comparison.
I'm sure I've missed a few more.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
Are you this snearing and unpleasant in person of do you just come across like that on the internet?
Well, the usual suspects provided us with a fantastic night of entertainment on PB.com. Although we didn't get predictions of a Tory surge in Edinburgh we did, among other dimwitted highlights, get to enjoy the following:
1. Assorted harrumphing about how it was typical of the EU that Britain obeys the EU rules on revealing exit polls when no other countries bother at all. Actually it is British law that forbids the revealing of exit polls before 10pm, as clearly stated by Dimbleby at the start of the BBC's coverage, but who cares about fact when you can have a good anti European rant eh ?
2. Lord Ashscroft's exit poll showing Labour in third was "terrible and disastrous" for Labour. Lord Ashcroft then tweeted that he hadn't actually done an exit poll but this didn't stop our electoral pseuds, oh no. A non existent exit poll was terrible for Labour.
3. Numerous predictions and assertions that Labour were going to finish third based on the fact that they were in third place before their strongest region, London, and Scotland declared. That's rather like saying Obama wouldn't win before California had declared but it didn't stop our electoral know nothings here.
4. Scott P's revelation that we can "do something about immigration" by having an economic crisis like Greece. Let us hope the Conservatives don't hire him as an economic advisor.
5. Comparisons of the electoral position of a government that has been in office for 4 years against a government that had been in office for 12 years and drawing electoral conclusions from this useless non like for like comparison.
I'm sure I've missed a few more.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
About right. No. 3 is the key point. Clear to anyone who can see through their own bias. That said, I was saddened to see even Nick Robinson fall for that. Worrying.
“the legal position is clear: the bodies that support the UK now … would continue to operate on behalf of the remainder of the UK on the same basis as before Scottish independence. If an independent Scottish state wanted to continue to receive services from UK institutions or utilise them to carry out functions in relation to Scotland, that would be a matter for negotiation and would have to be agreed with the continuing UK
Glad to see the British public reject the Lib Dems. Pro-EU traitors have no place here. Clegg and co would sell out our country to the EU and I'm glad they have been smashed by the electorate.
Well, the usual suspects provided us with a fantastic night of entertainment on PB.com. Although we didn't get predictions of a Tory surge in Edinburgh we did, among other dimwitted highlights, get to enjoy the following:
1. Assorted harrumphing about how it was typical of the EU that Britain obeys the EU rules on revealing exit polls when no other countries bother at all. Actually it is British law that forbids the revealing of exit polls before 10pm, as clearly stated by Dimbleby at the start of the BBC's coverage, but who cares about fact when you can have a good anti European rant eh ?
2. Lord Ashscroft's exit poll showing Labour in third was "terrible and disastrous" for Labour. Lord Ashcroft then tweeted that he hadn't actually done an exit poll but this didn't stop our electoral pseuds, oh no. A non existent exit poll was terrible for Labour.
3. Numerous predictions and assertions that Labour were going to finish third based on the fact that they were in third place before their strongest region, London, and Scotland declared. That's rather like saying Obama wouldn't win before California had declared but it didn't stop our electoral know nothings here.
4. Scott P's revelation that we can "do something about immigration" by having an economic crisis like Greece. Let us hope the Conservatives don't hire him as an economic advisor.
5. Comparisons of the electoral position of a government that has been in office for 4 years against a government that had been in office for 12 years and drawing electoral conclusions from this useless non like for like comparison.
I'm sure I've missed a few more.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
Are you this snearing and unpleasant in person of do you just come across like that on the internet?
Well, the usual suspects provided us with a fantastic night of entertainment on PB.com. Although we didn't get predictions of a Tory surge in Edinburgh we did, among other dimwitted highlights, get to enjoy the following:
1. Assorted harrumphing about how it was typical of the EU that Britain obeys the EU rules on revealing exit polls when no other countries bother at all. Actually it is British law that forbids the revealing of exit polls before 10pm, as clearly stated by Dimbleby at the start of the BBC's coverage, but who cares about fact when you can have a good anti European rant eh ?
2. Lord Ashscroft's exit poll showing Labour in third was "terrible and disastrous" for Labour. Lord Ashcroft then tweeted that he hadn't actually done an exit poll but this didn't stop our electoral pseuds, oh no. A non existent exit poll was terrible for Labour.
3. Numerous predictions and assertions that Labour were going to finish third based on the fact that they were in third place before their strongest region, London, and Scotland declared. That's rather like saying Obama wouldn't win before California had declared but it didn't stop our electoral know nothings here.
4. Scott P's revelation that we can "do something about immigration" by having an economic crisis like Greece. Let us hope the Conservatives don't hire him as an economic advisor.
5. Comparisons of the electoral position of a government that has been in office for 4 years against a government that had been in office for 12 years and drawing electoral conclusions from this useless non like for like comparison.
I'm sure I've missed a few more.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
About right. No. 3 is the key point. Clear to anyone who can see through their own bias. That said, I was saddened to see even Nick Robinson fall for that. Worrying.
Labour may not quite have come third, but they are currently equal with Tories at 18 seats. That's not good for Ed or for Labour.
At the end of the day:-
Labour - Bad result for an opposition party. Tories - Losses not as bad as feared. UKIP - Wonderful result for them. LibDems - Oh dear.
You come across as a very reasonable and thoughtful person in most of your postings, yet in common with some others, you lose a sense of perspective when it comes to Ukip. I had an interesting conversation on Thursday night when a friend made similar comments. I mentioned that I'd voted Ukip for the first ever time. "Ah," he said. "But you just did it for devilment."
There may be some truth in that, but it 's not the full story. Ukip can reflect the annoyance that voters feel when being told what's good for them.
The important next step for Ukip is their manifesto in September. It will be cherry-picked and distorted - that is politics - but if if, as I suspect, it's a mixture of socially conservative and economically left policies, the established parties may need to worry. And to be honest, I quite like the odd, inarticulate spokesperson that they sometimes put up. I happily put up with the LD oddities - I quite liked Tim Farron's peculiar excuses last night, for instance.
UKIP are a party of hatred and division, seeking to manufacture votes from the fears of others. The best that can be said of them is that others in other countries do so more vigorously and still more blatantly.
On the plus side, they made me a decent amount of money last night.
The same old claptrap without justification or argument. I know that they don't fall into your philosophy of stringent individual property rights, no national sovereignty and the dismantling of the welfare state.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
Comments
I got tempted by his 5/1 on Clegg gone before the election.
Shadsy can spot a sucker...
I have no idea, although a 'recovered' Scottish Tory party within the UK would be looking for around, say, 22%, and 7-8 seats with second in a dozen more. That looks like 2 elections away under a continued resurgence.
2015 I'd think4 would be the absolute upper end of expectations, and a lot of that would be just due to the Lib Dem meltdown handing them Berwickshire and perhaps West Aberdeenshire (although I favour SNP there at the moment)
Nick Palmer: "I'd vote UKIP"
May 2015 is the main event and Clegg is highly relevant there.
But I agree - it's not compelling. That's why I'm waiting to see the outcome of any renegotiation to decide whether I vote to stay in or vote to leave.
:-)
The killer problem is that their USP has been wiped out. They used to be the all things to all men NOTA party. Well now, because they joined a coalition (any coalition would have been the same), they are not all things to all men. They have had to take a stand on some things. So inevitably one half or other of the party was bound to peel off. Their lefties’ sense of abandonment is intense. Add to that the fact the UKIP have now monopolized the ‘populist, sensible chap, NOTA party ‘ mantle and the LibDems are left with nothing but their beards and their yoghurt.
They’ll cling on as a rump, an irritant and potential hung parliament kingmaker – but the LibDems as a serious political force are done.
It's also a matter of the replacement - Cable, Farron, Alexander .... Lembt .... LOL.
I think 3 is a reasonable goal for 2015 (if no did win), and 6 a long term target level.
I'd think they would be looking to recover to 8 FPTP Scot Parliament wins, perhaps looking at 6 next time with a further 2 to target for the next one.
Not going to disagree that there is an awful lot of active dislike of the Tory brand North of the border though,, especially in the Lowland belt, where I think, outside Ayr, they are never making a comeback, but there is fair support in the borders and in pockets of the Central and Eastern Highlands.
The other EU nations eurosceptic parties are not so different. We are more European than we sometimes want to believe.
@SamCoatesTimes: Lib Dems last remaining claim is they r doing OK in held seats. There is a chance The Lord A battleground poll could explode this assertion
There hasn't been a better time for decades.
We bribed Scotland to join in 1707, it would be a disastrous miscalculation and compounding of that historical error to blackmail them into staying in 2010.
And will it be one party, I wonder? It's possible that in the event of a Yes we may end up with three right wing parties (ignoring BNP and BF) - the old style Tories for which the OAPs will still vote out of habit, the UKIP for the EU-phobes, and a new style progressive conservative party growing from the indy campaign mob - in time for the next UKGE (assuming it happens before and not contemporaneously with indy day). But early times yet. Main thing is that the events of the last few days have given us new things to think about.
In that sense the British Euro result will concentrate minds a bit. Merkel may try to balance between throwing enough red meat to the Brits without destabilising the European ideal.
Although in reality there was every likelihood of the pro-Euro LibDems having a token presence in Brussels...or even none at all.
The French one even more so, I would have thought. Its also a matter of who is paying. The Germans would certainly not want to lose the EUs only other major net contributor.
If the vote was "out", the next question would be what kind of "out", which would make the EU the main topic of British politics for the next decade and leave plenty of room for UKIP. In particular they'd have a very strong narrative about how the voters had been betrayed by the Europhile politicians doing the exit negotiations when they failed to deliver some of the contradictory things the people who had voted for Brexit were hoping for.
Given that many of us would explicitly reject both the hostile perception and the Pro-EU world view espoused by the Economist it really says nothing about the real views of UKIP supporters and plenty about the Economist's own bias.
But when I visit America and Canada I realize how European the mentality of the British are in terms of government, welfare state and social aspiration.
Not an earthquake more of a loud fart.
Well done to Ukip in getting a Scottish seat - and a bad night for YES as there was no appetite for more Nats.
Meanwhile, how long until Cameron gives Martin Callanan a seat in the Lords?
Globalisation and increased movement of peoples aren't an option, they are a fact. Governments can try to alleviate the effects on their own citizens by sensible immigration laws that don;t hurt commerce but prevent undesirables coming and act against cultural change that is too rapid and thus divisive and alienating.
You could argue that a succession of governments in the past 40 years have done the opposite. They've made the effects of globalisation on citizens far, far worse than they needed to be.
I think UKIP vote is purely made up of the uneducated dimwits who have swallowed the "you will be swamped by immigrants" message that media and BT have been peddling. I doubt Tories will see 8 MP's in my lifetime.
PS: On last point I mean if no independence. Independence and a clear out and you could see them doing very well.
I wonder how much time you have really spent living and working in Europe to come to that conclusion.
At least I admit it...
Seems to run contrary to most of the polling I've seen - we already know they are least in favour of foreign neighbours......
Just for fun, let's see if I can find 8 seats that 'might' elect a Tory.........
Dumfresshire etc
Dumfries and Galloway
Berwickshire, Roxborough etc (they ought to expct to win all 3 in a good year)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Argyll and Bute
Renfrewshire East (straw clutch)
Edinburgh SW
Perth and North Perthshire
Angus
Moray
Banff and Buchan
Those are the only 11 I can see them having any chance in, and in all of them(Argyll aside) they ought to be second if they don't win.
Yeah, 8 of them is optimistic!!
If they can recover to 22% in. GE, they might get 6
In 2015, I'm backing 3
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2014/may/25/european-elections-uk-results
As things stand,hung Parliament with Labour largest party but the Conservatives could become the largest party if Ed Miliband doesn`t offer anything eye-catching to the public.He didn`t say a thing about Europe for the European elections.
Highland result
SNP: 19,810, Lib Dems: 12,189, Labour: 9,163, Conservatives: 9,088, UKIP: 7,818, Greens: 5,615.
http://www.highland-news.co.uk/News/Highland-votes-SNP-in-Euro-elections-26052014.htm
UKIP have 69 MP's so the only outcome that looks viable is a Labour/UKIP Coalition - That would be fun, LOL!
Leafy North London setting, views from deep in the focaccia belt.
in plans to defenestrate the leader?
I like the Anglophone countries but they have all become a lot less Anglo in recent decades, and more Asian. Apart from language I am culturally more at home in europe, I think like the people there. In part it may be because of my background in medicine and university life.
The European elections work for Ukip because they can make it about a single issue. Come the GE next year Farage will need more policies. Free market libertarianism might not be to the liking of many of those who've just voted Ukip.
Occam's Razor: There is no plan.
[edit: may be wrong in my memory of the result - complicated anyway by the ovting system]
1. Assorted harrumphing about how it was typical of the EU that Britain obeys the EU rules on revealing exit polls when no other countries bother at all. Actually it is British law that forbids the revealing of exit polls before 10pm, as clearly stated by Dimbleby at the start of the BBC's coverage, but who cares about fact when you can have a good anti European rant eh ?
2. Lord Ashscroft's exit poll showing Labour in third was "terrible and disastrous" for Labour. Lord Ashcroft then tweeted that he hadn't actually done an exit poll but this didn't stop our electoral pseuds, oh no. A non existent exit poll was terrible for Labour.
3. Numerous predictions and assertions that Labour were going to finish third based on the fact that they were in third place before their strongest region, London, and Scotland declared. That's rather like saying Obama wouldn't win before California had declared but it didn't stop our electoral know nothings here.
4. Scott P's revelation that we can "do something about immigration" by having an economic crisis like Greece. Let us hope the Conservatives don't hire him as an economic advisor.
5. Comparisons of the electoral position of a government that has been in office for 4 years against a government that had been in office for 12 years and drawing electoral conclusions from this useless non like for like comparison.
I'm sure I've missed a few more.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
Thus....[The SNP] campaign fell victim to mismanaged expectations, bringing to mind the local government elections of 2012 when although the SNP was the largest party in terms of votes it failed to take Glasgow City Council as confidently predicted by leader Alex Salmond.
“My lot shouldn’t have built up expectations,” one Yes Scotland source told me. “So stupid.”
Although the SNP went into the election with two seats and emerged with the same pair, Ukip’s success is profoundly damaging for a central element of the pro-independence narrative: that Ukip’s rise south of the Border proved that England and Scotland were countries moving in different directions, not just in electoral terms but when it came to a generally vague sense of “Scottish values”.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/david-torrance-ukip-catch-snp-by-surprise-1-3422484
Happy to win my bet.
In recent elections the LibDems have been beaten by an Elvis impersonator, a penguin & now the Green Party. For Gods sake don't sack Clegg
Here in Scotland a very pleasing result. Tory vote up and only a few thousand votes away from winning a second seat when many on here and elsewhere had us losing our seat a few weeks ago. Tories winning Edinburgh West, East Renfewshire, South Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway and Scottish Borders was also very encouraging.
Well done to the SNP beating Labour but perhaps now Malcolm and others will cut the crap about Scotland being a Tory free zone given there were 230,000 Scots Tory votes on Thursday.
For me the most interesting reaction last night was Dan Hannan praising the campaign David Cameron had led. Now on to Newark.
On the plus side, they made me a decent amount of money last night.
All UKIP hands are now needed in Newark. Well it's a chance after last nights voting in the area.
Scotland also stands to inherit a fair share of joint assets, valued at around 1.3 trillion dollars.”
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-could-cost-1-5bn-1-3422559
“the legal position is clear: the bodies that support the UK now … would continue to operate on behalf of the remainder of the UK on the same basis as before Scottish independence. If an independent Scottish state wanted to continue to receive services from UK institutions or utilise them to carry out functions in relation to Scotland, that would be a matter for negotiation and would have to be agreed with the continuing UK
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/the-hidden-costs-of-independence/
http://www.matthewjgoodwin.com/2014/05/top-10-ukip-hotspots-in-european.html
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-european-elections-political-earthquake
Strokes chin...
Overall the pronouncements of the death of the Tory party, both north and south of the border appear more than a little premature......
At the end of the day:-
Labour - Bad result for an opposition party.
Tories - Losses not as bad as feared.
UKIP - Wonderful result for them.
LibDems - Oh dear.
Who won it or are we waiting for the Western Isles etc
This time last year UKIP 0-10% at the GE was 83% of the book (I laid 4/6 on here)
Now they are 48%