UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
Way to go UKIP!
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!
Is he the one that caused the floods ?
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.
Patsies for Farage ! I'm sure some blacks voted for Enoch. It didn't mean he was right, it meant they were deluded patsies.
Nice. I do love the way this election has brought out the petty narrow minded bigotries of so many posters. If reality does not fit your perception then of course it must be reality that is wrong.
Anyone who doubts the credentials of UKIP on gay rights is a bigot ? Yeah, that'll be it.
Nope, anyone who says that only 'Uncle Tom' gays would possibly support UKIP is a bigot. You prefer your own petty bias to reality. That of course is your prerogative but don't be surprised when more rational posters then point out your obvious bigotry.
Congratulations to UKIP and all its supporters. The next bit is going to be much harder, but it will be fascinating to watch how your policies develop and how the other parties respond.
I still strongly believe that we will get a Hung Parliament next time around and that UKIP's vote will be dramatically down on what it scored on Thursday, but there is certainly something going on. The trick for the UKIP leadership will be to work out what it is. How do you hold together an alliance of disillusioned southern Tories and northern Old Labour supporters who feel they have been abandoned? Social conservatism will get you some of the way, but that is a temporary fix. There has to be more.
As someone on the centre left I very much hope that your rise forces a complacent and clearly London-centric Labour party to think more carefully about other parts of the country. There is a lot to be learned from London - especially in areas such as education - but it also has to be recognised that London is very different and that things which work there are not going to work elsewhere.
All very true. Labour did very well in London, but will it play in Port Talbot? Given the electoral maths does Ed need to care? He might get away with it anyway but governing on such a fragile and narrow base won't be easy to say the least.
London = only 73 seats. Rest of UK = 577 seats (or rest of GB = 559 seats).
@Sean_F - The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
Having read the books, I'm working my way through the series three box set of 'Game of Thrones'. The 'Scouse' wedding is the last episode, but living in Merseyside, I've been to a few and survived, so I can guess the outcome.
I'm trying to work out who the party leaders are most like. I suspect Ed thinks he's Tywin Lannister, but he isn't. Possibly a mixture of Stannis and Walter Frey. Cleggy could be a an evil version of Ned Stark but Cameron doesn't seem to fit. Farage is Littlefinger.
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
Way to go UKIP!
Plus a gay MEP in Scotland!
Is he the one that caused the floods ?
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.
Ah there speaks a true bigot. Never let anything as sordid as facts get in the way of your blind hatred.
Patsies for Farage ! I'm sure some blacks voted for Enoch. It didn't mean he was right, it meant they were deluded patsies.
Nice. I do love the way this election has brought out the petty narrow minded bigotries of so many posters. If reality does not fit your perception then of course it must be reality that is wrong.
Anyone who doubts the credentials of UKIP on gay rights is a bigot ? Yeah, that'll be it.
Nope, anyone who says that only 'Uncle Tom' gays would possibly support UKIP is a bigot. You prefer your own petty bias to reality. That of course is your prerogative but don't be surprised when more rational posters then point out your obvious bigotry.
I don't have an Uncle Tom amymore - he died in the mid 80s and I have no idea otherwise as to what that phrase means. I don't think he was gay either having fathered 2 daughters and having been married for 50 years. So I am a bigot because I question UKIP's sincerity in accepting gay rights ? What is it with right wing parties playing victim ? "Oh poor us, people question our sincerity on gay rights. How dare they, especially when we have had candidates spouting vile homophobic nonsense. It's all a smear by bigots". Struth. Doesn't your new Scottish MEP have some floods to start somewhere according to one of your members ?
Although my ARSE did not cover the Euro Elections the JackW prediction of :
Ukip 27% .. Lab 24% .. Con 22% .. Green 8% .. LibDem 8%
wasn't too shabby.
I'm hoping to put all the local/Euro numbers into ARSE by Wednesday to issue the latest ARSE 2015 GE prediction by Thursday. I also hope to name all the "JackW Dozen" - 13 constituencies that will determine the shape of the GE - by a week tomorrow.
"How do you hold together an alliance of disillusioned southern Tories and northern Old Labour supporters who feel they have been abandoned? Social conservatism will get you some of the way, but that is a temporary fix. There has to be more"
They could do worse than look to history, specifically Disraeli's one nation idea, which, contrary to all the rubbish spoken about it today, was really about stitching up an alliance between two groups that apparently had little in common. I rather think it can be done and Farage is a man who could do it, or at least be a plausible public face able to appeal to both groups. Whether UKIP have the intellectual bottom to come up with such a plan is another matter.
That said if UKIP even get part way down the path they will have advanced further than the Cameron Clique have managed or indeed the embarrassment that is Miliband's Labour Party are ever likely to achieve. They may pick up strength accordingly.
@Sean_F - The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
UKIP's support is coming from those who saw their families get steadily more affluent throughout the 20th century but during the last decade have seen that process stop.
They're still aspirational but feel that the government is now actively conspiring against them and instead prefers to enrich the feral rich and the feral poor at their expense.
They feel persecuted against DESPITE doing the 'right things'.
Is it now Conservative electoral strategy to say that London doesn't matter, just as in the past we've heard that Scotland doesn't matter, the north doesn't matter and the big cities don't matter ? What will we be left with ? The Isle of Wight ?
She lost her seat on Merton council on Thursday, but Suzanne Evans is quite a good media performer. Is this seat winnable?
Suzanne Evans @SuzanneEvans1 6m Just updated my profile. Delighted to announce I've been selected as @ukip PPC for #Shrewsbury & Atcham where I grew up #GE2015
Ukip must be pleased but it's hard to see where they go from here. If they focus merely on Europe/immigration at the general election they'll look more like a protest party. If they want a coherent platform across the economy and public services, how can they appeal to their traditional Thatcherite supporters and the Farage Socialists at the same time.
@Sean_F - The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
UKIP's support is coming from those who saw their families get steadily more affluent throughout the 20th century but during the last decade have seen that process stop.
They're still aspirational but feel that the government is now actively conspiring against them and instead prefers to enrich the feral rich and the feral poor at their expense.
They feel persecuted against DESPITE doing the 'right things'.
I am not sure that is true, is it? Isn't most of UKIP's support coming from an older, socially conservative demographic that is less likely to be of working age?
IIRC at the end Michael Douglas says something like "I'm the bad guy ??? No. I'm the good guy. I did everything the government told me to do - I served my country, I worked hard, I paid my taxes, I obeyed the law, I raised a family and then they took it all away from me and gave it to them".
"How do you hold together an alliance of disillusioned southern Tories and northern Old Labour supporters who feel they have been abandoned? Social conservatism will get you some of the way, but that is a temporary fix. There has to be more"
They could do worse than look to history, specifically Disraeli's one nation idea, which, contrary to all the rubbish spoken about it today, was really about stitching up an alliance between two groups that apparently had little in common. I rather think it can be done and Farage is a man who could do it, or at least be a plausible public face able to appeal to both groups. Whether UKIP have the intellectual bottom to come up with such a plan is another matter.
That said if UKIP even get part way down the path they will have advanced further than the Cameron Clique have managed or indeed the embarrassment that is Miliband's Labour Party are ever likely to achieve. They may pick up strength accordingly.
An alliance may well be the best option going forward. That way you can have very disparate views accommodated within the same organisation because they are united specifically on one thing which they see as being more important than absolutely everything else - even if it is for different reasons. But that does pose problems in terms of developing as a political party - it would make going into coalition very difficult, for example.
1. The anti-semitic shooting of three at the Jewish museum in Brussels.
2. The election of Udo Voigt of the National Democratic (Neo-Nazi) Party for Germany to the European Parliament.
His campaign slogan was "Put on the gas" and his posters featured pictures of gypsies with the caption "Money for Grandma, instead of for Sinti and Roma." The main policies of his party are to stand against the "EU-Moloch Brussels" and to ban "poverty migration from Bulgaria and Romania", the immediate deportation of migrants and an "immediate end to uncontrolled mass-migration to Europe".
His campaign tactics have been to "demonstrate in front of refugee shelters, chanting racist, anti-Islamic and anti-Semitic slogans".
@Sean_F - The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
UKIP's support is coming from those who saw their families get steadily more affluent throughout the 20th century but during the last decade have seen that process stop.
They're still aspirational but feel that the government is now actively conspiring against them and instead prefers to enrich the feral rich and the feral poor at their expense.
They feel persecuted against DESPITE doing the 'right things'.
A very large proportion of Kippers are in fact retirees.
@Sean_F - The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
UKIP's support is coming from those who saw their families get steadily more affluent throughout the 20th century but during the last decade have seen that process stop.
They're still aspirational but feel that the government is now actively conspiring against them and instead prefers to enrich the feral rich and the feral poor at their expense.
They feel persecuted against DESPITE doing the 'right things'.
I am not sure that is true, is it? Isn't most of UKIP's support coming from an older, socially conservative demographic that is less likely to be of working age?
You don't stop being aspirational when you retire.
The old are still aspirational for their children and grandchildren and they're aware of how after a century of improvement socioeconomic mobility has gone negative during the last decade.
By comparison many of the under 30s really have no idea how they've been shafted.
Terrible night for Labour. I actually thought they'd top the poll with their voters storming to the booths to stem the UKIP tide. That they're scrapping with the Tories for second place is risible. Miliband must be clinging on by his finger nails. IDS was ousted for less.
She lost her seat on Merton council on Thursday, but Suzanne Evans is quite a good media performer. Is this seat winnable?
Suzanne Evans @SuzanneEvans1 6m Just updated my profile. Delighted to announce I've been selected as @ukip PPC for #Shrewsbury & Atcham where I grew up #GE2015
I believe I owe you some money? Fair play for putting your money where your mouth is. If you can PM me your address or a Paypal e-mail I'll forward payment by cheque or Paypal, whichever you prefer.
Fwiw I still think it was a fairly evenly balanced bet. Thankfully you didn't take me up UKIP gaining a Scottish seat!
Why are people saying the London vote is a vote of educated professionals? The economic heart and soul of London commutes in every morning. Living in London is for 20 somethings, Germans and people in council accommodation.
To disguise the fact that Labour's successful strategy in London was to create more poverty.
@Sean_F - The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
UKIP's support is coming from those who saw their families get steadily more affluent throughout the 20th century but during the last decade have seen that process stop.
They're still aspirational but feel that the government is now actively conspiring against them and instead prefers to enrich the feral rich and the feral poor at their expense.
They feel persecuted against DESPITE doing the 'right things'.
I am not sure that is true, is it? Isn't most of UKIP's support coming from an older, socially conservative demographic that is less likely to be of working age?
You don't stop being aspirational when you retire.
The old are still aspirational for their children and grandchildren and they're aware of how after a century of improvement socioeconomic mobility has gone negative during the last decade.
By comparison many of the under 30s really have no idea how they've been shafted.
I think they won't be too long in realising it. The cumulated effects of Uni fees, pensions, bank bailouts, Blair's profligacy and the tightening of mortgage credit mean most of them will struggle to get anywhere near their parents' level of prosperity. It's tragic.
The London demographic has changed a lot since then
I work in Canary Wharf, my English colleagues almost all commute in. Also last I checked Kensington, Chelsea, Fulham, Barnes, Putney etc. aren't voting labour. The estates where immigrants are dumped are though. Labour thrives where there is ignorance, the party of the backward areas.
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
I had a gay Uncle Tom. I may have been named after him. Don't think he'd have voted for ukip though, he was a lifelong member of the NUR.
Seems the message for ge 2015 is that Tories likely to get highest vote share but will struggle for overall majority let alone a working one. Tories ultimately have a similar challenge as labour - how do you combine traditional support with (growing) multi ethnic electorate in cities. Tories had 2 of 3 in lewisham, dulwich, streatham etc in the 1980s. Tough road to 50/60 seat majority if London goes the way of the other big cities.
Haven't seen detailed sw results but looked like they did better than expected there. Marginals cluster round Bristol was worst (relative) lab area in he 2010 so possibly some encouragement there.
@Sean_F - The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
UKIP's support is coming from those who saw their families get steadily more affluent throughout the 20th century but during the last decade have seen that process stop.
They're still aspirational but feel that the government is now actively conspiring against them and instead prefers to enrich the feral rich and the feral poor at their expense.
They feel persecuted against DESPITE doing the 'right things'.
A very large proportion of Kippers are in fact retirees.
See my previous comment.
I would also expect that they're gaining proportionally among working people (that, anecdote alert, is my personal experience).
The London demographic has changed a lot since then
I work in Canary Wharf, my English colleagues almost all commute in. Also last I checked Kensington, Chelsea, Fulham, Barnes, Putney etc. aren't voting labour. The estates where immigrants are dumped are though. Labour thrives where there is ignorance, the party of the backward areas.
Ignorant and backward areas of the country like Oxford and Cambridge for example ?
What a nasty and vitriolic post, the essence of which is "Some areas don't vote Conservative. It's their fault for being stupid, lets not bother with them". One day it will dawn on people who post this sort of nonsense that this kind of attitude and the fact that their party doesn't win majorities anymore might actually be connected.
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
They did stick with William Hague when it was clear he was heading for disaster.
IIRC at the end Michael Douglas says something like "I'm the bad guy ??? No. I'm the good guy. I did everything the government told me to do - I served my country, I worked hard, I paid my taxes, I obeyed the law, I raised a family and then they took it all away from me and gave it to them".
So what you're saying is that UKIP has the gun toting, self pitying, misogynist, psycho vote?
Gerard Batten (UKIP) Roger Helmer (UKIP) Stuart Agnew (UKIP) Nigel Farage (UKIP) William Dartmouth (UKIP) Paul Nuttall Claude Moraes (Lab) Mary Honeyball (Lab) Glenis Willmott (Lab) Richard Howitt (Lab) David Martin (Lab) Catherine Stihler (Lab) Derek Vaughan (Lab) Linda McAven (Lab) Emma McClarkin (Con) Syed Kamall (Con) Charles Tannock (Con) Vicky Ford (Con) Geoffrey van Orden (Con) David Campbell Bannerman (Con) Jacquline Foster (Con) Sajjd Karim (Con) Daniel Hannan (Con) Nirj Deva (Con) Richard Ashworth (Con) Ashley Fox (Con) Julie Girling (Con) Kay Swinbourne (Con) Philup Bradbourn (Con) Anthea McIntyre (Con) Timothy Kirkhope (Con) Keith Taylor (Green) Jean Lambert (Green) Ian Hudghton (SNP) Alyn Smith (SNP) Catherine Bearder (LD) Jill Evans (Plaid)
Newly elected MEPs (33)
Margot Parker (UKIP) Patrick O'Flynn (UKIP) Tim Aker (UKIP) Jonathan Arnott (UKIP) Louise Bours (UKIP) Steen Woolfe (UKIP) David Coburn (UKIP) Janice Atkinson (UKIP) Diane James (UKIP) Ray Finch (UKIP) Julia Reid (UKIP) Nathan Gill (UKIP) Jill Seymour (UKIP) James Carver (UKIP) Bill Etheridge (UKIP) Jane Collins (UKIP) Amjad Bashir (UKIP) Mike Hookem (UKIP) Judith Kirton-Darling (Lab) Paul Brannen (Lab) Lucy Anderson (Lab) Seb Dance (Lab) Therese Griffin (Lab) Afzal Khan (Lab) Julie Ward (Lab) Anneliese Dodds (Lab) Claire Moody (Lab) Neena Gill (Lab) Sion Simon (Lab) Richard Corbett (Lab) Andrew Lewer (Con) Ian Duncan (Con) Molly Scott Cato (Green)
She lost her seat on Merton council on Thursday, but Suzanne Evans is quite a good media performer. Is this seat winnable?
Suzanne Evans @SuzanneEvans1 6m Just updated my profile. Delighted to announce I've been selected as @ukip PPC for #Shrewsbury & Atcham where I grew up #GE2015
I believe I owe you some money? Fair play for putting your money where your mouth is. If you can PM me your address or a Paypal e-mail I'll forward payment by cheque or Paypal, whichever you prefer.
Fwiw I still think it was a fairly evenly balanced bet. Thankfully you didn't take me up UKIP gaining a Scottish seat!
Sorry you lost, glad UKIP won! :-)
I've sent you a message via vanilla.
I had a bet with Ladbrokes on the scottish seat, I shall have to toast Mr Coburn. :-)
Don't know, but I haven't seen a politician looks as emotionally and physically shell-shocked as Danny Alexander looked last night since the Conservatives 1997 meltdown.
Makes you wonder what's being said behind closed doors.
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
They did stick with William Hague when it was clear he was heading for disaster.
Not worth ruining someone else's career against Blair, against whom no Tory has won.
Those Tories who say such things do not know London. They come here as tourists and think they know London.
UKIP did well. Buttered the bread evenly; works in PR. Disastrous for FPTP. The Tories could not even top in any of the 12 regions. There votes are also distributed fairly evenly. I am impressed by Labour's stealth advance in the South West.
While a political party's principles, policies and 'salesmen/saleswomen' (the leaders) are crucial, a party can only thrive and survive through an effective infrastructure which balances the short term with the long term and is open and accessible to new ideas and people.
For me this is the Conservatives challenge now. The party needs to engage with the ideas of Hannan and Carswell for how the party can change its structures; some will be taken on board and others not, but it needs to become more accessible. A more flexible affiliation process, open primaries, recall, become a community movement etc. are all options that need to be considered. There may even be scope to move the formal HQ of the party out of London as a symbol that the party acknowledges life beyond Westminster issues.
Alongside this the party needs to balance fighting short term battles that all political parties do - here Newark and then the Scottish referendum and then the General Election - with the long term. It needs investment from the party in areas where we have little to no infrastructure and support and this should be an evolving, 20-25 year plan. So we need a 'Conservative Party Development Unit' who has the sole aim of working away in areas with little prospect of short term success, but has longer potential. It makes sense electorally, but crucially it demonstrates that a political party that wishes to govern for the whole country must engage with the whole country, even if they don't formally cast you a vote.
It is infrastructure then which I hope the party engage with now. I don't doubt it will be less important with 350 days until a General Election, but I hope someone at CCHQ is making the case. Only then can the party really become more resilient.
@Sean_F - The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
UKIP's support is coming from those who saw their families get steadily more affluent throughout the 20th century but during the last decade have seen that process stop.
They're still aspirational but feel that the government is now actively conspiring against them and instead prefers to enrich the feral rich and the feral poor at their expense.
They feel persecuted against DESPITE doing the 'right things'.
A very large proportion of Kippers are in fact retirees.
See my previous comment.
I would also expect that they're gaining proportionally among working people (that, anecdote alert, is my personal experience).
According to the last YouGov EU poll, UKIP voters came from these age groups (as a percentage of those voting in each age group)
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
They did stick with William Hague when it was clear he was heading for disaster.
Not worth ruining someone else's career against Blair, against whom no Tory has won.
With the Tories it's the 1922. With Labour it's The Bruvvers. What about the Libs? They got rid of Kennedy and Ming pretty ruthlessly, so somebody must have said "enough's enough"?
But JackW, the LibDems have spent four years acting as though their being in the Coalition is something unutterably horrible. They seem unable to run forward promoting the strong economic growth because they might have to say something nice about George Osborne in the process. And the Tories - they are just frightfully beastly.
Liberal Democrats, you did a WONDERFUL THING! You bed-blocked Labour, you saw off the woeful Gordon Brown, you have delivered tax-free incomes for the poorest in society, you have been party to the right of gay marriage being enacted, you have been part of an economic stability that has allowed employers firstly to retain staff during the recession - and then to take on staff so that unemployment is W-A-Y lower than almost any forecasters dare suggest (and fully half what some on the left screamed it would be).
Unlike Labour, you have a strong case to make on how to run an economy. You could be the Sensible Left of British politics - especially against the twin numpties of Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. Go and shout it from the rooftops - The LibDems have been GOOD FOR BRITAIN! They have been part of a government bringing WORK TO THE WORKERS! But don't be namby-pamby about it. Go for Labour's gonads! (Must be someone in your party with micro-surgery skills?)
Unfortunately, to move forward with this task, you are going to need a new leader....
With the Tories it's the 1922. With Labour it's The Bruvvers. What about the Libs? They got rid of Kennedy and Ming pretty ruthlessly, so somebody must have said "enough's enough"?
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
Who, specifically, is the energetic new leader not associated with the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years who you think would be leading this energised team?
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
They did stick with William Hague when it was clear he was heading for disaster.
Not worth ruining someone else's career against Blair, against whom no Tory has won.
Blair never won an Euro poll. He had two chances.
Blair was in government though for his two goes though. You can imagine how well he'd have done if the Euro elections had been in 1995 (when Labour won 2000 Councillors in one night) rather than 1994.
@Sean_F - The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector.
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
UKIP's support is coming from those who saw their families get steadily more affluent throughout the 20th century but during the last decade have seen that process stop.
They're still aspirational but feel that the government is now actively conspiring against them and instead prefers to enrich the feral rich and the feral poor at their expense.
They feel persecuted against DESPITE doing the 'right things'.
A very large proportion of Kippers are in fact retirees.
See my previous comment.
I would also expect that they're gaining proportionally among working people (that, anecdote alert, is my personal experience).
According to the last YouGov EU poll, UKIP voters came from these age groups (as a percentage of those voting in each age group)
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
Quite right. Ed should do the decent thing and fall on his sword. If nothing else he should deny himself the humilation of ending his career as a sort of human endorsement of Dan Hodges.
Seems the message for ge 2015 is that Tories likely to get highest vote share but will struggle for overall majority let alone a working one.
I quite like Janet Daley's suggestion that the big change is the LDs being replaced by UKIP
"The party of general protest is now on the Right rather than the Left – which is actually a more serious change in the political landscape than the mere introduction of a fourth player."
I really wonder if Nick might just have had enough. He has been very resilient but wow, this has been a bad few days. To lose 40% of the Councillors standing and then 90% of all their MEPs when he had made that so personal with the debates with Farage.
The next election looks grim as well. We may be in for an interesting few days.
This should worry labour supporters when Theresa Griffin was giving labours victory speech for the north west region,she spoke of the leadership of ed miliband and the audience in the hall started laughing.
I really wonder if Nick might just have had enough. He has been very resilient but wow, this has been a bad few days. To lose 40% of the Councillors standing and then 90% of all their MEPs when he had made that so personal with the debates with Farage.
The next election looks grim as well. We may be in for an interesting few days.
If Nick Clegg is going to go, now is the moment he'd go. I'd be very surprised if he did, given everything that he has said previously and given that he has had the support even of threats like Tim Farron. But anything is possible.
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
Quite right. Ed should do the decent thing and fall on his sword. If nothing else he should deny himself the humilation of ending his career as a sort of human endorsement of Dan Hodges.
I'm sure you're trying to be genuinely helpful to Labour here, but out of interest, who do you think they should pick instead?
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
Who, specifically, is the energetic new leader not associated with the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years who you think would be leading this energised team?
........political differences between Scotland and her southern neighbour are much exaggerated; that it suits those who seek the break-up of Britain to perpetuate such exaggeration; and that arguments seeking to set Scotland up as if it is some sort of northern cure for English diseases are both deluded and dangerous. A major element of SNP strategy unravelled this weekend. Unionists can surely welcome this without for a moment endorsing either the policies or the personnel of the wretched UKIP.
I really wonder if Nick might just have had enough. He has been very resilient but wow, this has been a bad few days. To lose 40% of the Councillors standing and then 90% of all their MEPs when he had made that so personal with the debates with Farage.
The next election looks grim as well. We may be in for an interesting few days.
But what would be achieved?
If they forced an election, there is every chance they would get wiped out there too, new leader or not.
If they carry on, then the new leader will accumulate baggage for the GE anyway.
Perhaps they could have a new leader, and the LDs can moan about having to be in government? Not much change there.
As a tory supporter I find the London effect bewildering. It is the fastest growing, richest and most clearly capitalist part of the country where you might think more than most would understand the absurdity of Ed's anti-market nonsense.
They are indulged with extremely high levels of public spending, especially on transport but still pay more than enough tax to justify it. They have a tory mayor. And yet Labour get ever stronger there. Weird.
From the GE point of view I think the tories can draw comfort that a significant part of any Labour advance is going to pile up in safe seats there where it cannot do any harm but the failure to make progress into these supposedly gentrified areas is baffling.
London is, in my view, where the future of this country is being forged. That it seems to be a Labour dominated future is a concern.
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
Quite right. Ed should do the decent thing and fall on his sword. If nothing else he should deny himself the humilation of ending his career as a sort of human endorsement of Dan Hodges.
I'm sure you're trying to be genuinely helpful to Labour here, but out of interest, who do you think they should pick instead?
Chuka with Darling as his Shadow CoE. Surely Labour's best dream ticket since Neil and Roy.
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
Who, specifically, is the energetic new leader not associated with the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years who you think would be leading this energised team?
She lost her seat on Merton council on Thursday, but Suzanne Evans is quite a good media performer. Is this seat winnable?
Suzanne Evans @SuzanneEvans1 6m Just updated my profile. Delighted to announce I've been selected as @ukip PPC for #Shrewsbury & Atcham where I grew up #GE2015
I believe I owe you some money? Fair play for putting your money where your mouth is. If you can PM me your address or a Paypal e-mail I'll forward payment by cheque or Paypal, whichever you prefer.
Fwiw I still think it was a fairly evenly balanced bet. Thankfully you didn't take me up UKIP gaining a Scottish seat!
Sorry you lost, glad UKIP won! :-)
I've sent you a message via vanilla.
I had a bet with Ladbrokes on the scottish seat, I shall have to toast Mr Coburn. :-)
Just made the payment to your charity, well done for that. Took the sting out of it a bit!
I think that's a point many have missed. If the Tories were in Labour's position with an impotent leader while in opposition heading to a hung Parliament with all the same in-built advantages Labour have this time around, they would have gone through another bout of regicide and installed a new leader. They did it with IDS and were utterly ruthless in removing the quiet man before he could turn up the volume.
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
Who, specifically, is the energetic new leader not associated with the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years who you think would be leading this energised team?
I really wonder if Nick might just have had enough. He has been very resilient but wow, this has been a bad few days. To lose 40% of the Councillors standing and then 90% of all their MEPs when he had made that so personal with the debates with Farage.
The next election looks grim as well. We may be in for an interesting few days.
But what would be achieved?
If they forced an election, there is every chance they would get wiped out there too, new leader or not.
If they carry on, then the new leader will accumulate baggage for the GE anyway.
Perhaps they could have a new leader, and the LDs can moan about having to be in government? Not much change there.
Also, what would not be achieved ? Lib Dems go on about what they did in government. But any "credit" for the "recovery" will go to the Tories.
Ex Lib Dem voters associate them with Tuition Fees, Austerity, Bedroom Tax....
So , what would no change in personnel and policies achieve ?
As a tory supporter I find the London effect bewildering. It is the fastest growing, richest and most clearly capitalist part of the country where you might think more than most would understand the absurdity of Ed's anti-market nonsense.
They are indulged with extremely high levels of public spending, especially on transport but still pay more than enough tax to justify it. They have a tory mayor. And yet Labour get ever stronger there. Weird.
From the GE point of view I think the tories can draw comfort that a significant part of any Labour advance is going to pile up in safe seats there where it cannot do any harm but the failure to make progress into these supposedly gentrified areas is baffling.
London is, in my view, where the future of this country is being forged. That it seems to be a Labour dominated future is a concern.
A lot of people who work in London commute from the home counties, and did not vote Labour.
Comments
Judging by the Council results, the outcome should be Sinn Fein, DUP, UUP, in that order.
Rest of UK = 577 seats (or rest of GB = 559 seats).
They should be the bedrock of any political party with serious aspirations for government. There should be no trade off between social democracy and aspiration. That is a challenge for the centre left here and elsewhere.
That said, if the polls are correct about where UKIP's support is coming from, you would not say that the aspirational are flocking to support it. So that will be a challenge for UKIP too.
The idea that the majority of London professionals don't live in the city is palpable garbage, the stuff of Tory fantasy.
http://legacy.london.gov.uk/gla/publications/factsandfigures/dmag-briefing-2007-03.pdf
I'm trying to work out who the party leaders are most like. I suspect Ed thinks he's Tywin Lannister, but he isn't. Possibly a mixture of Stannis and Walter Frey. Cleggy could be a an evil version of Ned Stark but Cameron doesn't seem to fit. Farage is Littlefinger.
Sorry to those who haven't seen the series.
£153 profit from these elections - which is marginally better than my Grand National result !
"How do you hold together an alliance of disillusioned southern Tories and northern Old Labour supporters who feel they have been abandoned? Social conservatism will get you some of the way, but that is a temporary fix. There has to be more"
They could do worse than look to history, specifically Disraeli's one nation idea, which, contrary to all the rubbish spoken about it today, was really about stitching up an alliance between two groups that apparently had little in common. I rather think it can be done and Farage is a man who could do it, or at least be a plausible public face able to appeal to both groups. Whether UKIP have the intellectual bottom to come up with such a plan is another matter.
That said if UKIP even get part way down the path they will have advanced further than the Cameron Clique have managed or indeed the embarrassment that is Miliband's Labour Party are ever likely to achieve. They may pick up strength accordingly.
The London demographic has changed a lot since then
They're still aspirational but feel that the government is now actively conspiring against them and instead prefers to enrich the feral rich and the feral poor at their expense.
They feel persecuted against DESPITE doing the 'right things'.
Usually see him after every election getting in his vehicle , with a quote for the media.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/shrewsburyandatcham/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2572187/The-secrets-ballot-box-Tories-earn-Labour-voters-rent-home-Lib-Dems-better-educated-Ukip-voters-white-retired.html
Disproportionality down to 14.2%, mostly due to fewer micro parties. But still very disproportional for "PR".
ENP down from 6.3 to 4.8.
Labour underperformed UNS, LD and Greens did better than UNS...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falling_Down
IIRC at the end Michael Douglas says something like "I'm the bad guy ??? No. I'm the good guy. I did everything the government told me to do - I served my country, I worked hard, I paid my taxes, I obeyed the law, I raised a family and then they took it all away from me and gave it to them".
Enjoyed the sport, thanks for betting sir.
1. The anti-semitic shooting of three at the Jewish museum in Brussels.
2. The election of Udo Voigt of the National Democratic (Neo-Nazi) Party for Germany to the European Parliament.
His campaign slogan was "Put on the gas" and his posters featured pictures of gypsies with the caption "Money for Grandma, instead of for Sinti and Roma." The main policies of his party are to stand against the "EU-Moloch Brussels" and to ban "poverty migration from Bulgaria and Romania", the immediate deportation of migrants and an "immediate end to uncontrolled mass-migration to Europe".
His campaign tactics have been to "demonstrate in front of refugee shelters, chanting racist, anti-Islamic and anti-Semitic slogans".
3. UKIP topping the EP elections in the UK.
Re: Shrewsbury.
"The constituency is coextensive with that of the Central area of Shropshire Council "
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shrewsbury_and_Atcham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Component_settlements_and_landscape
UKIP didn't do very well in the 2013 local elections.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shropshire_Council_election,_2013#Central_area_results
But they seem to have done OK in the EU Parliament election.
"In Shropshire the party won 25,759 votes, compared with 24,920 for the Conservatives"
http://www.shropshirestar.com/news/2014/05/26/european-election-results/
The old are still aspirational for their children and grandchildren and they're aware of how after a century of improvement socioeconomic mobility has gone negative during the last decade.
By comparison many of the under 30s really have no idea how they've been shafted.
You can check out page code by right clicking and viewing "page source"
Fwiw I still think it was a fairly evenly balanced bet. Thankfully you didn't take me up UKIP gaining a Scottish seat!
Labour are far too deferential to their leaders. Were Ed a Tory he would have been out last year after the conferences and the sitting PM would be facing an energised team with a whole bunch of new blood once the new leader forces the resignation of the last vestiges of the Blair/Brown years.
Labour = useless.
Seems the message for ge 2015 is that Tories likely to get highest vote share but will struggle for overall majority let alone a working one. Tories ultimately have a similar challenge as labour - how do you combine traditional support with (growing) multi ethnic electorate in cities. Tories had 2 of 3 in lewisham, dulwich, streatham etc in the 1980s. Tough road to 50/60 seat majority if London goes the way of the other big cities.
Haven't seen detailed sw results but looked like they did better than expected there. Marginals cluster round Bristol was worst (relative) lab area in he 2010 so possibly some encouragement there.
I would also expect that they're gaining proportionally among working people (that, anecdote alert, is my personal experience).
What a nasty and vitriolic post, the essence of which is "Some areas don't vote Conservative. It's their fault for being stupid, lets not bother with them". One day it will dawn on people who post this sort of nonsense that this kind of attitude and the fact that their party doesn't win majorities anymore might actually be connected.
Gerard Batten (UKIP)
Roger Helmer (UKIP)
Stuart Agnew (UKIP)
Nigel Farage (UKIP)
William Dartmouth (UKIP)
Paul Nuttall
Claude Moraes (Lab)
Mary Honeyball (Lab)
Glenis Willmott (Lab)
Richard Howitt (Lab)
David Martin (Lab)
Catherine Stihler (Lab)
Derek Vaughan (Lab)
Linda McAven (Lab)
Emma McClarkin (Con)
Syed Kamall (Con)
Charles Tannock (Con)
Vicky Ford (Con)
Geoffrey van Orden (Con)
David Campbell Bannerman (Con)
Jacquline Foster (Con)
Sajjd Karim (Con)
Daniel Hannan (Con)
Nirj Deva (Con)
Richard Ashworth (Con)
Ashley Fox (Con)
Julie Girling (Con)
Kay Swinbourne (Con)
Philup Bradbourn (Con)
Anthea McIntyre (Con)
Timothy Kirkhope (Con)
Keith Taylor (Green)
Jean Lambert (Green)
Ian Hudghton (SNP)
Alyn Smith (SNP)
Catherine Bearder (LD)
Jill Evans (Plaid)
Newly elected MEPs (33)
Margot Parker (UKIP)
Patrick O'Flynn (UKIP)
Tim Aker (UKIP)
Jonathan Arnott (UKIP)
Louise Bours (UKIP)
Steen Woolfe (UKIP)
David Coburn (UKIP)
Janice Atkinson (UKIP)
Diane James (UKIP)
Ray Finch (UKIP)
Julia Reid (UKIP)
Nathan Gill (UKIP)
Jill Seymour (UKIP)
James Carver (UKIP)
Bill Etheridge (UKIP)
Jane Collins (UKIP)
Amjad Bashir (UKIP)
Mike Hookem (UKIP)
Judith Kirton-Darling (Lab)
Paul Brannen (Lab)
Lucy Anderson (Lab)
Seb Dance (Lab)
Therese Griffin (Lab)
Afzal Khan (Lab)
Julie Ward (Lab)
Anneliese Dodds (Lab)
Claire Moody (Lab)
Neena Gill (Lab)
Sion Simon (Lab)
Richard Corbett (Lab)
Andrew Lewer (Con)
Ian Duncan (Con)
Molly Scott Cato (Green)
I've sent you a message via vanilla.
I had a bet with Ladbrokes on the scottish seat, I shall have to toast Mr Coburn. :-)
Makes you wonder what's being said behind closed doors.
UKIP did well. Buttered the bread evenly; works in PR. Disastrous for FPTP. The Tories could not even top in any of the 12 regions. There votes are also distributed fairly evenly. I am impressed by Labour's stealth advance in the South West.
While a political party's principles, policies and 'salesmen/saleswomen' (the leaders) are crucial, a party can only thrive and survive through an effective infrastructure which balances the short term with the long term and is open and accessible to new ideas and people.
For me this is the Conservatives challenge now. The party needs to engage with the ideas of Hannan and Carswell for how the party can change its structures; some will be taken on board and others not, but it needs to become more accessible. A more flexible affiliation process, open primaries, recall, become a community movement etc. are all options that need to be considered. There may even be scope to move the formal HQ of the party out of London as a symbol that the party acknowledges life beyond Westminster issues.
Alongside this the party needs to balance fighting short term battles that all political parties do - here Newark and then the Scottish referendum and then the General Election - with the long term. It needs investment from the party in areas where we have little to no infrastructure and support and this should be an evolving, 20-25 year plan. So we need a 'Conservative Party Development Unit' who has the sole aim of working away in areas with little prospect of short term success, but has longer potential. It makes sense electorally, but crucially it demonstrates that a political party that wishes to govern for the whole country must engage with the whole country, even if they don't formally cast you a vote.
It is infrastructure then which I hope the party engage with now. I don't doubt it will be less important with 350 days until a General Election, but I hope someone at CCHQ is making the case. Only then can the party really become more resilient.
18-24: 13%
25-39: 18%
40-59: 29%
60+: 35%
ABC1: 23%
C2DE: 33%
Male: 30%
Female: 24%
2010: Voters:
Cons:39%
LAB:15%
LDs: 18%
Regions:
London: 20%
Rest of S: 33%
Mids/Wales: 30%
North: 27%
Scotland:13%
With the Tories it's the 1922. With Labour it's The Bruvvers. What about the Libs? They got rid of Kennedy and Ming pretty ruthlessly, so somebody must have said "enough's enough"?
... is now open:
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/newark/
Entries close 7pm Wednesday 4th June.
Many thanks,
DC
"The party of general protest is now on the Right rather than the Left – which is actually a more serious change in the political landscape than the mere introduction of a fourth player."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100273264/european-elections-2014-how-to-learn-nothing-from-the-result/
The next election looks grim as well. We may be in for an interesting few days.
UKIP - 10027 ( 32.44% )
CON - 9641 ( 31.19% )
LAB - 6601( 21.36% 0
LD - 1889 ( 6.11% )
GRN - 1513 ( 4.90% )
Total - 30910
All to play for !
........political differences between Scotland and her southern neighbour are much exaggerated; that it suits those who seek the break-up of Britain to perpetuate such exaggeration; and that arguments seeking to set Scotland up as if it is some sort of northern cure for English diseases are both deluded and dangerous. A major element of SNP strategy unravelled this weekend. Unionists can surely welcome this without for a moment endorsing either the policies or the personnel of the wretched UKIP.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/05/26/scotland-and-europe-part-1/
But what would be achieved?
If they forced an election, there is every chance they would get wiped out there too, new leader or not.
If they carry on, then the new leader will accumulate baggage for the GE anyway.
Perhaps they could have a new leader, and the LDs can moan about having to be in government? Not much change there.
They are indulged with extremely high levels of public spending, especially on transport but still pay more than enough tax to justify it. They have a tory mayor. And yet Labour get ever stronger there. Weird.
From the GE point of view I think the tories can draw comfort that a significant part of any Labour advance is going to pile up in safe seats there where it cannot do any harm but the failure to make progress into these supposedly gentrified areas is baffling.
London is, in my view, where the future of this country is being forged. That it seems to be a Labour dominated future is a concern.
Lab 3.35
NOM 2.2
Con 4.1
(lolz)
Ex Lib Dem voters associate them with Tuition Fees, Austerity, Bedroom Tax....
So , what would no change in personnel and policies achieve ?