Since UKIP's vote share at the locals was down on last year and at the Euros was down on what almost all pollsters predicted, it's far from clear that the onslaught on UKIP was a disaster.
Well, whatever people think of UKIP's policies more than a quarter of the public who bothered to vote put a cross at the bottom of the ballot paper, they now have their place in history and they have a very good shot at having an MP too.
I wonder whether Farage will be tempted by the Euro votes in Doncaster to have a vain attempt at unseating Miliband? The media would certainly love it.
Glad to see the British public reject the Lib Dems. Pro-EU traitors have no place here. Clegg and co would sell out our country to the EU and I'm glad they have been smashed by the electorate.
I wonder if what we are seeing is the final consequence of the Clegg/Farage face-off – A dawning in the minds of the electorate as to how pro EU the Lib Dems actually are?
Nick Clegg has a lot to answer for.Unnecessarily having a debate which boosted Farage and decimated his own party.How did this headless man ever become the head of a political party?
Ed atleast kept his head down and not advertise Labour`s pro-Europe credentials and ended up second.
Looks like Labour were only about 34,000 votes ahead of the Tories in England...
It's a GB poll Rod and you got this call wrong. It was clear that Labour wouldn't come third and - like many TV pundits - you made the big mistake of counting without London and the big cities.
LOL! There was only 1.5% in it - An abysmal performance for the main Opposition just one year before a general election and certainly nothing to crow about.
Well, the usual suspects provided us with a fantastic night of entertainment on PB.com. Although we didn't get predictions of a Tory surge in Edinburgh we did, among other dimwitted highlights, get to enjoy the following:
1. Assorted harrumphing about how it was typical of the EU that Britain obeys the EU rules on revealing exit polls when no other countries bother at all. Actually it is British law that forbids the revealing of exit polls before 10pm, as clearly stated by Dimbleby at the start of the BBC's coverage, but who cares about fact when you can have a good anti European rant eh ?
2. Lord Ashscroft's exit poll showing Labour in third was "terrible and disastrous" for Labour. Lord Ashcroft then tweeted that he hadn't actually done an exit poll but this didn't stop our electoral pseuds, oh no. A non existent exit poll was terrible for Labour.
3. Numerous predictions and assertions that Labour were going to finish third based on the fact that they were in third place before their strongest region, London, and Scotland declared. That's rather like saying Obama wouldn't win before California had declared but it didn't stop our electoral know nothings here.
4. Scott P's revelation that we can "do something about immigration" by having an economic crisis like Greece. Let us hope the Conservatives don't hire him as an economic advisor.
5. Comparisons of the electoral position of a government that has been in office for 4 years against a government that had been in office for 12 years and drawing electoral conclusions from this useless non like for like comparison.
I'm sure I've missed a few more.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
About right. No. 3 is the key point. Clear to anyone who can see through their own bias. That said, I was saddened to see even Nick Robinson fall for that. Worrying.
Labour may not quite have come third, but they are currently equal with Tories at 18 seats. That's not good for Ed or for Labour.
At the end of the day:-
Labour - Bad result for an opposition party. Tories - Losses not as bad as feared. UKIP - Wonderful result for them. LibDems - Oh dear.
I think it is a fair assessment - but UKIP didn't quite hit the heights that some were predicting. A good result - but not at the top end of their expectations.
With greater representation comes greater scrutiny. If they want to be taken seriously, UKIP need a proper set of policy platforms - and if what we have seen so far is anything to go by, they probably don't want too many people to know about those.
The worst result for his party and the country was Nick Clegg getting fecked by the Tories and not asking if they were wearing a condom while they were shafting him.
Strangely if last nights results were repeated in a GE www.electoralcalculus.co.uk predicts labour making 46 gains and being almost the same size as a Con \ UKIP block, with a rump LD and various nationalists deciding who governs. You'd imagine they'd go with Labour, in that circumstance
Surely the worst result all round ?
You nostalgic for the days when Labour fecked the entire country?
You haven't learned and you will just do it again.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
Farage has to go for Thurrock doesn't he? Thanet doesn't seem to feature on Matthew Goodwin's top 10. Would take a huge effort to win any seat off Labour or one with a sizeable Tory majority.
I have lived, studied and worked in Australia, USA and New Zealand, but only briefly visited Canada. I have never worked in Continental Europe, but have family there and work with a number of Europeans at both University and Hospital.
I like the Anglophone countries but they have all become a lot less Anglo in recent decades, and more Asian. Apart from language I am culturally more at home in europe, I think like the people there. In part it may be because of my background in medicine and university life.
That's your own cultural biases then. Surveys of values in different countries shows who the UK is close to quite clearly:
There are far more seats that Labour need to win in the Midlands than in London. On a really good night, Labour could win another 10 or so seats in London. There are 22 of the Conservatives' most marginal 100 seats in the Midlands.
According to John Rentoul. In other news, grass is green.
What's your view? I only ask because you don't say - you are just reheating others' views...
Scott's only known two views are that the Tories surged in Edinburgh in the 2010 election and that we can control immigration by having an economic crisis like Greece. Is it any wonder he lets others speak for him ?
Since UKIP's vote share at the locals was down on last year ...A thought about that. Last year was the County elections and far fewer seats were up for election 2,361 compared to 4,211 this year (source: the relevant Wikipedia pages). What I am not sure how to find is how many UKIP candidates stood. However it is possible that UKIP stood in a greater proportion of seats last year, due to the smaller number required, and this could affect the ENV as I believe it is corrected to assume the top 3 parties would field candicates in every seat, but not others. Does anyone have a link to how many candidates UKIP fielded?
Farage has to go for Thurrock doesn't he? Thanet doesn't seem to feature on Matthew Goodwin's top 10. Would take a huge effort to win any seat off Labour or one with a sizeable Tory majority.
Thurrock has a candidate for UKIP - I think Farage would be a twerp not to go for South Thanet.
He's stood there already which defends him from the charge of being an outsider.
Now of course not all SLAB will vote no (tho the vast majority of Con will).......but it's hardly got "Yes landslide" written all over it....
Carnyx, twisted Tory Scottish hating logic, apples and oranges points to pears.
PS. I have to say though that UKIP getting a seat in Scotland is very depressing, have to wonder what cretins voted that way.
I don't see this having any bearing on the referendum , good to see Lib Dems wiped out but dire that UKIP get to 10%. SNP winning after so long in government shows how well they are doing even if it would have been better to get the 3rd seat.
Clearly there's no direct correlation as all parties have voters who do not follow their party line on the referendum however in broad terms I'd be somewhat happier looking at the detailed results from the NO camp than YES.
However let's not get too overheated on this angle as these are Euro elections that have little relevance and are the greatest protest vote available to the punters.
I agree, though it is a bit worrying that they get even 10%, only thing they can be voting for is against immigration. For Scotland this is madness as we absolutely need immigration and get too little of it at present. My concern is that there are enough of these badly educated idiots to make a difference, unfortunately confirms my worst fears.
Maybe they are voting against EU membership? Just an idea.
John, Everyone knows it is immigration, they are voting UKIP due to scaremongering by BT and media.
They're an anti-EU party, only part of that anti-EUness is about immigration, it was an EP election, doesn't seem unreasonable that 10% of the Scottish population might be Eurosceptic. In any case, I thought you were a centre-right Snipper, surprised you would believe in unfettered immigration and the Scottish people not being able to state who comes to live in Scotland and on what terms.
John, nobody is promoting unfettered immigration here. We do need some immigration though given our demographics. I can see many people being Eurosceptic but to vote for UKIP who want to get rid of Scottish parliament and have no other policy than to get out of Europe is not very sensible to me.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Farage has to go for Thurrock doesn't he? Thanet doesn't seem to feature on Matthew Goodwin's top 10. Would take a huge effort to win any seat off Labour or one with a sizeable Tory majority.
Thurrock has a candidate for UKIP - I think Farage would be a twerp not to go for South Thanet.
He's stood there already which defends him from the charge of being an outsider.
UKIP have a good chance there I would think.
As an aside, South Thanet has to have one of the most absurd constituency boundaries of any seat in the UK. Are there any worse?
Can still see the Conservatives being displaced by UKIP as happened in Canada when the right wing party got co-opted by the establishment there. This would only happen when the Conservatives go into opposition though.
Good to see the end of the Lib Dems though, their position on Europe, immigration and the political 'correctness' police state are so far out of the mainstream I am amazed how long they persisted as the third party.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.
Now of course not all SLAB will vote no (tho the vast majority of Con will).......but it's hardly got "Yes landslide" written all over it....
If you assume 25% of Labour and LDs will vote yes, then the balance of Indyref is far closer - about 45/55 if my mental arithmetic on the BBC data is correct - with some months to go. And remember that this does not allow for the impact of UKIP winning, and Labour only tying for 2nd equal with the Tories, and a majority of right-wing parties (not counting Labour) in the UK as a whole. The turnout is also about half of the likely Indyref turnout.
And remember it is not Indyref but an election - where the governing party held on to its vote in mid term. Certainly mixed news but not that much of a change except for LDs and UKIP. [edted to remove stray text] I'm not sure I would be too happy if I were Mr Miliband.
Carnyx, twisted Tory Scottish hating logic, apples and oranges points to pears.
PS. I have to say though that UKIP getting a seat in Scotland is very depressing, have to wonder what cretins voted that way.
Good morning all and what a night last night was. Thanks to OGH for confirming YouGov was closest pollster. London appears to have been the difference between Labour and the Tories.
Here in Scotland a very pleasing result. Tory vote up and only a few thousand votes away from winning a second seat when many on here and elsewhere had us losing our seat a few weeks ago. Tories winning Edinburgh West, East Renfewshire, South Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway and Scottish Borders was also very encouraging.
Well done to the SNP beating Labour but perhaps now Malcolm and others will cut the crap about Scotland being a Tory free zone given there were 230,000 Scots Tory votes on Thursday.
For me the most interesting reaction last night was Dan Hannan praising the campaign David Cameron had led. Now on to Newark.
Easterross, I am afraid it will still be a long time before the Tories ever recover in Scotland, and it will certainly not be under the current bunch of duffers running it. Till they have a real Scottish party making decisions for Scotland they will remain on the fringes. Best they could hope for would be a slack handful and even that is very unlikely in a real election. Consolation list MSP's will be their lot for the near future unless it is YES and they have a clear out.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
From what I hear/read etc, *London* encapsulates much of the angst/resentment behind a fair degree of political shift. I just find that conflict interesting. How to be servant to both masters I've no idea either, Hurst.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
About right. No. 3 is the key point. Clear to anyone who can see through their own bias. That said, I was saddened to see even Nick Robinson fall for that. Worrying.
Labour may not quite have come third, but they are currently equal with Tories at 18 seats. That's not good for Ed or for Labour.
At the end of the day:-
Labour - Bad result for an opposition party. Tories - Losses not as bad as feared. UKIP - Wonderful result for them. LibDems - Oh dear. ------------------------
I think it is a fair assessment - but UKIP didn't quite hit the heights that some were predicting. A good result - but not at the top end of their expectations. ---------------------------- With greater representation comes greater scrutiny. If they want to be taken seriously, UKIP need a proper set of policy platforms - and if what we have seen so far is anything to go by, they probably don't want too many people to know about those. ======================= As I said on Thursday night; London is the hole in the UKIP bucket. They need much better organisation there and one of the ways is to move their main HQ to London, where all the main political action is.
Looks like Labour were only about 34,000 votes ahead of the Tories in England...
It's a GB poll Rod and you got this call wrong. It was clear that Labour wouldn't come third and - like many TV pundits - you made the big mistake of counting without London and the big cities.
LOL! There was only 1.5% in it - An abysmal performance for the main Opposition just one year before a general election and certainly nothing to crow about.
That the Tories are trying to spin their worst ever result in a national poll (and one that is usually catnip to rightwingers) as a success is indeed hilarious. Especially after many PB Tories assured us last night that Labour were on course to be third. Luckily for Amnesty International, I put my money where my mouth was...
Since UKIP's vote share at the locals was down on last year ...
A thought about that. Last year was the County elections and far fewer seats were up for election 2,361 compared to 4,211 this year (source: the relevant Wikipedia pages). What I am not sure how to find is how many UKIP candidates stood. However it is possible that UKIP stood in a greater proportion of seats last year, due to the smaller number required, and this could affect the ENV as I believe it is corrected to assume the top 3 parties would field candicates in every seat, but not others. Does anyone have a link to how many candidates UKIP fielded?
UKIp only fielded 1 candidate in many London wards which depressed their national share
Oblitus: On the subject of absurd boundaries, I was always interested* by the fact that while Broxtowe looks perfectly normal on paper, only by use of some very minor roads can one get from the north of the constituency (or indeed Borough) to the south without straying into Nottingham or Derbyshire).
*I concede I am interested by different things to most people.
Exclusive! Sunil on Sunday "Election Monday" special!:
OpEd: Right-wing parties on the rise worldwide, first India, now the EU? Congrats to Nigel Farage and UKIP on their fantastic Euro result! UKIP get higher percentage of vote in UK than FN did in France! Scotland set to get its first UKIP MEP? Labour beat the Tories into third place on Euro vote share! But - should Ed have done better one year out from GE2015? Shinners get largest party vote share in NI at the Local Elections! Clegg's LibDems get a pounding - his days as leader now numbered? Our resident clairvoyant Mystic Smeg: "I just knew UKIP would win the Euros!" All the latest film reviews with our very own Mark Commode! And don't forget our steamy Page 3 model... train - full page spread!
Sam, they have done the easy bit , when they win significant seats in an election that people are interested in it will be time to crow. We only ever hear of MEP's every 5 years and then they disappear to the trough. It will be a bit tougher to win GE seats.
Got to say, it's not too bad for the Conservatives. Their lacklustre result is helped by the fact there are fewer questions over Cameron's leadership than Miliband's (and far fewer than Clegg's). Positive story is the UKIPalypse, and the negative story is the Lib Dems becoming almost extinct in Europe (quite amusing for the party of In).
Bloody weird that Conservative discipline is a genuine thing.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Oh, I agree that there are layers in London, more than you have listed. There are in every city, town and county, those the difference between them is, perhaps, not quite so wide and so marked as in London. And its probably true that what will appeal to the urban dispossessed (for want of a better term) in London will appeal equally to their opposite numbers in other big cities.
Nonetheless, London does have, I think, a unique quality that is not replicated in other places. Then there is its economy which seems to grow more different than everywhere else as each year passes. Mr. Brooke, gent of this parish, put it well a few weeks back when he said that policies that appeal in London go down like a cup of cold sick with factory workers in Nuneaton (I paraphrase).
Long term the solution has to be more devolution, so that cities and counties can implement policies that best suit them. In the meantime the problem is for parties who want to win London and the Midlands marginals.
It's amazing you hang on my every word, but if you want to be my creepy stalker there is a waiting list...
Why not just have an opinion of your own for a change rather than posting predictable drivel from other people?
He has nothing to say or offer other than "right wing commentator says Tories doing brilliantly and Labour doing terribly" tweet shocks. All day, every day.
Is Clegg on holiday? Often accused of being an out of touch privileged bloke he now appears to be adopting the PR of royalty. As the Queen Mother would put it, 'Say nothing, dear.'
Sam, they have done the easy bit , when they win significant seats in an election that people are interested in it will be time to crow. We only ever hear of MEP's every 5 years and then they disappear to the trough. It will be a bit tougher to win GE seats.
The markets for the GE are shortening all the time
4/6 to win a seat is the best price 10-15% is 15/8 favourite in the share of the vote market
Well, the usual suspects provided us with a fantastic night of entertainment on PB.com. Although we didn't get predictions of a Tory surge in Edinburgh we did, among other dimwitted highlights, get to enjoy the following:
1. Assorted harrumphing about how it was typical of the EU that Britain obeys the EU rules on revealing exit polls when no other countries bother at all. Actually it is British law that forbids the revealing of exit polls before 10pm, as clearly stated by Dimbleby at the start of the BBC's coverage, but who cares about fact when you can have a good anti European rant eh ?
2. Lord Ashscroft's exit poll showing Labour in third was "terrible and disastrous" for Labour. Lord Ashcroft then tweeted that he hadn't actually done an exit poll but this didn't stop our electoral pseuds, oh no. A non existent exit poll was terrible for Labour.
3. Numerous predictions and assertions that Labour were going to finish third based on the fact that they were in third place before their strongest region, London, and Scotland declared. That's rather like saying Obama wouldn't win before California had declared but it didn't stop our electoral know nothings here.
4. Scott P's revelation that we can "do something about immigration" by having an economic crisis like Greece. Let us hope the Conservatives don't hire him as an economic advisor.
5. Comparisons of the electoral position of a government that has been in office for 4 years against a government that had been in office for 12 years and drawing electoral conclusions from this useless non like for like comparison.
I'm sure I've missed a few more.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
As one poster put it here on Friday " I love the smell of sour grapes in the morning."
Scotland is interesting. For the governing party (which has a majority in the Scottish parliament) to poll sub-30% less than 4 months before it hopes to declare independence from the UK cannot be an encouraging sign.
No doubt many Scottish nationalists will endeavour to explain this away. The more sober and thoughtful amongst them will reflect carefully on it.
Now of course not all SLAB will vote no (tho the vast majority of Con will).......but it's hardly got "Yes landslide" written all over it....
If you assume 25% of Labour and LDs will vote yes, then the balance of Indyref is far closer - about 45/55 if my mental arithmetic on the BBC data is correct - with some months to go. And remember that this does not allow for the impact of UKIP winning, and Labour only tying for 2nd equal with the Tories, and a majority of right-wing parties (not counting Labour) in the UK as a whole. The turnout is also about half of the likely Indyref turnout.
And remember it is not Indyref but an election - where the governing party held on to its vote in mid term. Certainly mixed news but not that much of a change except for LDs and UKIP. [edted to remove stray text] I'm not sure I would be too happy if I were Mr Miliband.
Carnyx, twisted Tory Scottish hating logic, apples and oranges points to pears.
PS. I have to say though that UKIP getting a seat in Scotland is very depressing, have to wonder what cretins voted that way.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.
I'd be very surprised if it didn't given the vast differences at the last general election. But generally UK polite society is far more uncomfortable with doing this than in the US, so I don't know how available it is.
Yet still our national debate has failed to engage seriously with the roots of Ukip's appeal and the underlying divisions that have made its rise possible. Instead, many have sought to ridicule, condemn and chase the party out of our politics. That approach has failed miserably. Now it is time for a serious debate about the roots of this revolt on the right.
Sam, they have done the easy bit , when they win significant seats in an election that people are interested in it will be time to crow. We only ever hear of MEP's every 5 years and then they disappear to the trough. It will be a bit tougher to win GE seats.
The markets for the GE are shortening all the time
4/6 to win a seat is the best price 10-15% is 15/8 favourite in the share of the vote market
Certainly be interesting, country badly needs a shake up.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.
Well I live in London (Redbridge) and I voted UKIP (for the Euros only, mind!).
No doubt that it does reflect my own values, but even on your own map (and I am not sure what the axes mean) we are as close to northern europe in values as we are to the USA, and a lot closer than we are to the BRIC countries that UKIP wants migrants from rather than our EU neighbours.
Also I would prefer to move in the direction of the other EU countries on that graph, particularly the German and Scandanavian ones.
I have lived, studied and worked in Australia, USA and New Zealand, but only briefly visited Canada. I have never worked in Continental Europe, but have family there and work with a number of Europeans at both University and Hospital.
I like the Anglophone countries but they have all become a lot less Anglo in recent decades, and more Asian. Apart from language I am culturally more at home in europe, I think like the people there. In part it may be because of my background in medicine and university life.
That's your own cultural biases then. Surveys of values in different countries shows who the UK is close to quite clearly:
That Scotland has voted for a party with 'United Kingdom' in its title is a glowing endorsement of the union. The SNP appear to be stranded on the shore of history, dumbfounded and mute, their cause crushed utterly.
Scotland is interesting. For the governing party (which has a majority in the Scottish parliament) to poll sub-30% less than 4 months before it hopes to declare independence from the UK cannot be an encouraging sign.
No doubt many Scottish nationalists will endeavour to explain this away. The more sober and thoughtful amongst them will reflect carefully on it.
LOL, another numpty who knows nothing , in government 8 years and still held vote share , compare with other parties idiot.
The title race is shaping up nicely. Even better, the next race is at the fantastic circuit in Montreal. The Canadian Grand Prix's a favourite of mine.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.
I'd be very surprised if it didn't given the vast differences at the last general election. But generally UK polite society is far more uncomfortable with doing this than in the US, so I don't know how available it is.
Here we go again. Look at the total votes cast in London for Labour. Then look at the total votes cast for the Tories. No amount of sub-sectioning will hide what was an absolute hiding for the Tories, and a very eye-catching display by Labour.
Instead of obsessing about immigration, we should instead by analysing why Ed's formula works so much better in big wealthy cities among professionals but much less so with other demographics in the provinces. @Carola nailed the divide this morning.
London is no longer majority English. Mandelson's father didn't build the Tories out of London but his son did ethnically cleanse them. The best the right can do is continue to pick up the WWC to add to their traditional middle and upper class supporters.
From Bojo's mayoral election successes the Wizard of Oz knows this.
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.
I'd be very surprised if it didn't given the vast differences at the last general election. But generally UK polite society is far more uncomfortable with doing this than in the US, so I don't know how available it is.
Here we go again. Look at the total votes cast in London for Labour. Then look at the total votes cast for the Tories. No amount of sub-sectioning will hide what was an absolute hiding for the Tories, and a very eye-catching display by Labour.
Instead of obsessing about immigration, we should instead by analysing why Ed's formula works so much better in big wealthy cities among professionals but much less so with other demographics in the provinces. @Carola nailed the divide this morning.
@BBCPolitics: Votes so far in the UK for European elections: UKIP 22.7%, Lab 25.4%, Con 23.9%, Green 7.8%, Lib Dem 6.8%, SNP 2.4%, BNP 1.1%, Plaid 0.7%
Why is this quite different from the header? Old tweet?
Sam, they have done the easy bit , when they win significant seats in an election that people are interested in it will be time to crow. We only ever hear of MEP's every 5 years and then they disappear to the trough. It will be a bit tougher to win GE seats.
The markets for the GE are shortening all the time
4/6 to win a seat is the best price 10-15% is 15/8 favourite in the share of the vote market
But UKIP are still 2.38 to beat the LDs in votes. So there's a tasty, longer than evens, bet for everyone. Think UKIP will fall away? Take the bet on them not winning a seat. Think UKIP will sustain? Take the bet on them beating the LDs.
Disclosure: I think UKIP will sustain and have money on a couple of relevant bets.
@BBCPolitics: Votes so far in the UK for European elections: UKIP 22.7%, Lab 25.4%, Con 23.9%, Green 7.8%, Lib Dem 6.8%, SNP 2.4%, BNP 1.1%, Plaid 0.7%
Why is this quite different from the header? Old tweet?
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
The gap between rich and poor is far more stark and in your face in London than elsewhere in the UK. That skews its politics leftwards, along with a huge immigrant population, and a large number of white collar public sector workers.
The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector. They are comparitively lacking in London, although not in boroughs like Bexley or Havering.
Well, the usual suspects provided us with a fantastic night of entertainment on PB.com. Although we didn't get predictions of a Tory surge in Edinburgh we did, among other dimwitted highlights, get to enjoy the following:
1. Assorted harrumphing about how it was typical of the EU that Britain obeys the EU rules on revealing exit polls when no other countries bother at all. Actually it is British law that forbids the revealing of exit polls before 10pm, as clearly stated by Dimbleby at the start of the BBC's coverage, but who cares about fact when you can have a good anti European rant eh ?
2. Lord Ashscroft's exit poll showing Labour in third was "terrible and disastrous" for Labour. Lord Ashcroft then tweeted that he hadn't actually done an exit poll but this didn't stop our electoral pseuds, oh no. A non existent exit poll was terrible for Labour.
3. Numerous predictions and assertions that Labour were going to finish third based on the fact that they were in third place before their strongest region, London, and Scotland declared. That's rather like saying Obama wouldn't win before California had declared but it didn't stop our electoral know nothings here.
4. Scott P's revelation that we can "do something about immigration" by having an economic crisis like Greece. Let us hope the Conservatives don't hire him as an economic advisor.
5. Comparisons of the electoral position of a government that has been in office for 4 years against a government that had been in office for 12 years and drawing electoral conclusions from this useless non like for like comparison.
I'm sure I've missed a few more.
As someone else would have said: "Always wrong and never ever learn".
As one poster put it here on Friday " I love the smell of sour grapes in the morning."
I notice you were unable to deny all 5 of those things happened or were said here last night.
No doubt that it does reflect my own values, but even on your own map (and I am not sure what the axes mean) we are as close to northern europe in values as we are to the USA, and a lot closer than we are to the BRIC countries that UKIP wants migrants from rather than our EU neighbours.
Also I would prefer to move in the direction of the other EU countries on that graph, particularly the German and Scandanavian ones.
I have lived, studied and worked in Australia, USA and New Zealand, but only briefly visited Canada. I have never worked in Continental Europe, but have family there and work with a number of Europeans at both University and Hospital.
I like the Anglophone countries but they have all become a lot less Anglo in recent decades, and more Asian. Apart from language I am culturally more at home in europe, I think like the people there. In part it may be because of my background in medicine and university life.
That's your own cultural biases then. Surveys of values in different countries shows who the UK is close to quite clearly:
UKIP doesn't necessarily want migrants from BRICs rather than the EU. What they want is a level playing field so that migrants from all countries are treated equally based on their value to the UK. It is possible (although I would contend almost inconceivable) that that would mean no EU migration and all from the RoW or no RoW and all from the EU.
But the important point is that there would be control on migration with everyione treated equally and we would remove this frankly racist idea as perpetuated by the current border arrangements that European migrants are better than non European ones.
Labour isn't the party of the professional classes. Most professionals commute in from out of London. Crosby will be looking to motivate the indigenous middle and respectable working class as he did for Boris.
Sam, they have done the easy bit , when they win significant seats in an election that people are interested in it will be time to crow. We only ever hear of MEP's every 5 years and then they disappear to the trough. It will be a bit tougher to win GE seats.
The markets for the GE are shortening all the time
4/6 to win a seat is the best price 10-15% is 15/8 favourite in the share of the vote market
But UKIP are still 2.38 to beat the LDs in votes. So there's a tasty, longer than evens, bet for everyone. Think UKIP will fall away? Take the bet on them not winning a seat. Think UKIP will sustain? Take the bet on them beating the LDs.
Disclosure: I think UKIP will sustain and have money on a couple of relevant bets.
Yes that bet was 7/4 three weeks ago
Wonder what price Ladbrokes will go when they have revised?
Anyway, does anyone think there's a conflict for Labour re what London represents come needing wider support next year?
Yes. Labour is doing well as a metropolitan party for those in work in the places where lots of people live.
It's that other demographics that pose a problem!!
Just that I can imagine London being a negative metaphor for Labour-Ukip switchers. So bit of a conundrum for Labour I'd say. Reinforces that met-elite thang.
It maybe that London has become so decoupled from the rest of the country economically and, perhaps, culturally, that policies which will play well there just won't find favour elsewhere. If that is true then there is problem for any party seeking to win big in London and in the crucial Midlands marginals. What the solution would be, I haven't got a clue.
It's foolish to believe London is one culture though. There's a wealthy elite at the top, a class of professionals beneath them that aspire to join them and share their values, and then a large mass of struggling poor working menial jobs beneath, many of which are first or second generation immigrants.
Do we know if voting in London divided on racial lines? I remember Nick Robinson mentioning something last night.
I'd be very surprised if it didn't given the vast differences at the last general election. But generally UK polite society is far more uncomfortable with doing this than in the US, so I don't know how available it is.
Here we go again. Look at the total votes cast in London for Labour. Then look at the total votes cast for the Tories. No amount of sub-sectioning will hide what was an absolute hiding for the Tories, and a very eye-catching display by Labour.
Instead of obsessing about immigration, we should instead by analysing why Ed's formula works so much better in big wealthy cities among professionals but much less so with other demographics in the provinces. @Carola nailed the divide this morning.
I think I nail a lot of things tbh but there's so much wordy *analysis* goes on on here that the bleedin' obvious usually gets ignored/goes unnoticed.
Comments
Since UKIP's vote share at the locals was down on last year and at the Euros was down on what almost all pollsters predicted, it's far from clear that the onslaught on UKIP was a disaster.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFo1eyWbTtc
I wonder whether Farage will be tempted by the Euro votes in Doncaster to have a vain attempt at unseating Miliband? The media would certainly love it.
What's your view? I only ask because you don't say - you are just reheating others' views...
Ed atleast kept his head down and not advertise Labour`s pro-Europe credentials and ended up second.
With greater representation comes greater scrutiny. If they want to be taken seriously, UKIP need a proper set of policy platforms - and if what we have seen so far is anything to go by, they probably don't want too many people to know about those.
Tory/Labour diehards arguing over which of their parties did worse is a bit sad. It totally ignores the UKIP elephant in the room.
You haven't learned and you will just do it again.
It would appear not. Perhaps the lowest share of the vote in a national election since the Great Reform Act of 1832 ? A magnificent triumph.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/Inglehart_Values_Map2.svg
Doncaster: Ukip got 24,240; Labour 23,743; Tories 9,747 and the Lib Dems 1,869.
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Chris Mason @ChrisMasonBBC 12h
Ukip topped the poll in Doncaster, whereLabour leader Ed Miliband has his Doncaster North constituency
http://londoneuroelections.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Borough-Voting-Figures-for-London-160KB-pdf.pdf
Surely they could have put an excel file up.
He's stood there already which defends him from the charge of being an outsider.
UKIP have a good chance there I would think.
How many elections did the SDP win?
How many have the Lib Dems won??? hahahaha
Ukip wins European elections with ease to set off political earthquake
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-european-elections-political-earthquake
And with that I am off to drown my sorrows...
Good to see the end of the Lib Dems though, their position on Europe, immigration and the political 'correctness' police state are so far out of the mainstream I am amazed how long they persisted as the third party.
About right. No. 3 is the key point. Clear to anyone who can see through their own bias. That said, I was saddened to see even Nick Robinson fall for that. Worrying.
Labour may not quite have come third, but they are currently equal with Tories at 18 seats. That's not good for Ed or for Labour.
At the end of the day:-
Labour - Bad result for an opposition party.
Tories - Losses not as bad as feared.
UKIP - Wonderful result for them.
LibDems - Oh dear.
------------------------
I think it is a fair assessment - but UKIP didn't quite hit the heights that some were predicting. A good result - but not at the top end of their expectations.
----------------------------
With greater representation comes greater scrutiny. If they want to be taken seriously, UKIP need a proper set of policy platforms - and if what we have seen so far is anything to go by, they probably don't want too many people to know about those.
=======================
As I said on Thursday night; London is the hole in the UKIP bucket. They need much better organisation there and one of the ways is to move their main HQ to London, where all the main political action is.
A. All of them.
UKIp only fielded 1 candidate in many London wards which depressed their national share
*I concede I am interested by different things to most people.
OpEd: Right-wing parties on the rise worldwide, first India, now the EU?
Congrats to Nigel Farage and UKIP on their fantastic Euro result!
UKIP get higher percentage of vote in UK than FN did in France!
Scotland set to get its first UKIP MEP?
Labour beat the Tories into third place on Euro vote share!
But - should Ed have done better one year out from GE2015?
Shinners get largest party vote share in NI at the Local Elections!
Clegg's LibDems get a pounding - his days as leader now numbered?
Our resident clairvoyant Mystic Smeg: "I just knew UKIP would win the Euros!"
All the latest film reviews with our very own Mark Commode!
And don't forget our steamy Page 3 model... train - full page spread!
UKIP source: "We have more ethnic minority and female MEPs than the LibDems have ethnic minority and female MPs."
It will be a bit tougher to win GE seats.
Bloody weird that Conservative discipline is a genuine thing.
Nonetheless, London does have, I think, a unique quality that is not replicated in other places. Then there is its economy which seems to grow more different than everywhere else as each year passes. Mr. Brooke, gent of this parish, put it well a few weeks back when he said that policies that appeal in London go down like a cup of cold sick with factory workers in Nuneaton (I paraphrase).
Long term the solution has to be more devolution, so that cities and counties can implement policies that best suit them. In the meantime the problem is for parties who want to win London and the Midlands marginals.
4/6 to win a seat is the best price
10-15% is 15/8 favourite in the share of the vote market
I've worked though so far, nine different drafts.
I think I am guaranteed to upset everyone with the next piece
I'm hoping to have something up by mid afternoon.
PS - Does anyone know if Lord A is publishing his weekly phone poll today ?
No doubt many Scottish nationalists will endeavour to explain this away. The more sober and thoughtful amongst them will reflect carefully on it.
Yet still our national debate has failed to engage seriously with the roots of Ukip's appeal and the underlying divisions that have made its rise possible. Instead, many have sought to ridicule, condemn and chase the party out of our politics. That approach has failed miserably. Now it is time for a serious debate about the roots of this revolt on the right.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/26/ukip-rise-no-flash-in-pan
Although the author's final three words aren't supported by the rest of his article.......
No Scott, we don't hang on your every word, we laugh at your every word.
Anyone for a Greek style meltdown to stop the immigrants ?
Also I would prefer to move in the direction of the other EU countries on that graph, particularly the German and Scandanavian ones.
Can you tweet him? Does he follow you now?
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/monaco-post-race-analysis.html
The title race is shaping up nicely. Even better, the next race is at the fantastic circuit in Montreal. The Canadian Grand Prix's a favourite of mine.
Instead of obsessing about immigration, we should instead by analysing why Ed's formula works so much better in big wealthy cities among professionals but much less so with other demographics in the provinces. @Carola nailed the divide this morning.
From Bojo's mayoral election successes the Wizard of Oz knows this.
Why is this quite different from the header? Old tweet?
Disclosure: I think UKIP will sustain and have money on a couple of relevant bets.
PD 40.8% - 31 seats
5 Stars 21.%- 17 seats
Forza Italia 16.8% - 13 seats
Lega 6.2% - 5 seats
NCD/UDC 4.4% -3 seats
Tsipras 4.0% -3 seats
Brothers of Italy 3.7% - 0 seat
SVP - 1 seat
The bedrock of any successful right-wing party these days is aspirational, skilled-working, and lower-middle class voters, working in the private sector. They are comparitively lacking in London, although not in boroughs like Bexley or Havering.
But the important point is that there would be control on migration with everyione treated equally and we would remove this frankly racist idea as perpetuated by the current border arrangements that European migrants are better than non European ones.
Yes that bet was 7/4 three weeks ago
Wonder what price Ladbrokes will go when they have revised?
2. OGH or Ed Miliband - who did better or worse in these elections?
3. Sky, ITV or BBC for GE 2015, after 2010 BBC were the big loser, has anything changed since for watching next year?
4. Are Spurs now part winners of the Champs League as an official feeder club to Real Madrid and thus trump the little FA Cup trinket of others.
There are always people vain enough to be used as patsies by a party desperate to prove its tolerance.