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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EP14: Results summary with changes on 2009
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EP14: Results summary with changes on 2009
The broad trend was in line with what I’d predicted though my bets on Ukip not making it top place were losers.
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UKIP currently on 27.50% - may round down to 27% when Western Isles is added.
AIFE cost UKIP 2 seats if all their votes had gone to UKIP. Those 2 seats both went Green instead - lucky Greens!
LOL.
Other notable Scottish results:
- Not a single Scottish council area, out of 32, awarded any one party anything even close to a majority. The days when the SLab vote used to be weighed throughout west central Scotland are long over. The strongest single result was the SNP in Dundee (40.2%).
- SCON won in East Renfrewshire - Jim Murphy's seat
- the SLDs got just 14.2% in East Dunbartonshire - Jo Swinson's seat
- the SNP won Falkirk, the vacant IND seat
- SLAB just pipped the SNP in Edinburgh, by 0.1 points
City results:
Aberdeen City: SNP 15,412 (29.5%) Lab 12,420 (23.8%) Con 9824 (18.8%) UKIP 5025 (9.6%) LD 4605 (8.8%) Green 3723 (7.1%)
Dundee: SNP 13,573 (40.2%), Lab 9050 (26.8%) Con 4010 (11.9%) UKIP 2965 (8.8%) Green 2193 (6.5%) LD 1248 (3.7%)
Edinburgh: Lab 32,758 (23.1%) SNP 32,721 (23%) Con 27,554 (19.4%) Green 22,836 (16.1%) LD 12,575 (8.9%) UKIP 10,992 (7.7%)
Glasgow: Lab 45,676 (35.2%) SNP 37,820 (29.1%) Green 15,359 (11.8%) UKIP 12,638 (9.7%) Con 10,985 (8.5%) LD 6830 (3%)
31 out of 32 council areas declared:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/euro-elections-how-scotland-voted-area-by-area.1401053220
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jec6uNhtCJ_ZTmfrwhZ8MmUPmdj4BuFHXVVtT6cxNyM/edit
Strangely if last nights results were repeated in a GE www.electoralcalculus.co.uk predicts labour making 46 gains and being almost the same size as a Con \ UKIP block, with a rump LD and various nationalists deciding who governs. You'd imagine they'd go with Labour, in that circumstance
Surely the worst result all round ?
2) "YouGov were clear winners of the EP14 polling face."
(1) and (2) don't follow unless yougov subtracted an estimate for the AIFE effect (and UK EPP in London).
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/25/labour-local-elections-miliband-ukip-editorial
"He has done what those who elected him wanted him to do, rejecting the effort to appeal beyond the core vote at all costs in the Tony Blair manner to reiterate more traditional Labour and social democratic values."
"Whether the vagaries of a four-party battle on unreformed boundaries will allow Labour to win a Commons majority with a core vote strategy is one of the unknowns of the next 12 months. Whether winning with a percentage share in the low 30s would be sustainable in office is questionable. Like it or not, though, this has been Mr Miliband's strategy. It is a bit rich of his party to panic about it, when Mr Miliband is doing what he promised all along."
Food banks
Bedroom tax
Racism with a grin on its face is now mainstream
Demonisation of the disabled is respectable
Support for their pet project, the EU, is in ashes
The party of the crofters has now become the party of the lairds
The 'peace party' has become the 'war party' (Syria)
The dismantling of the welfare state stared by the old Liberal Party in connivance with their Tory buddies
The most reactionary party since at least 1832 won the most votes in a national election.....
They have a lot to answer for.
Yes 11/4 (various)
No 1/3 (various)
I wonder if we will see more tactical voting. I could see Tories who had all but given up in the North voting tactically (for UKIP) on a 'keep the weirdo out' ticket.
UKIP MEP in "social democratic Scotland" was certainly not in the YESNP's script....
Malta, pop 418,000 = 6 seats
Luxembourg pop 531,000 = 6 seats
Cyprus (southern) pop 839,000 = 6 seats
Estonia population 1.339 million = 6 seats
Latvia population 2.025 = 8 seats
Slovenia 2.058 million = 8 seats
Lithuania population 3 million = 11 seats
R of Ireland pop 4.6 million = 11 seats (nb compare with NI 1.8m pop = 3 seats)
Finland Population 5.4 million =13 seats
Slovakia population 5.4 million = 13 seats
Denmark Population 5.6 million = 13 seats
Sweden 9.6 million = 20 seats
Hungary 10 million =21 seats
Czech Republic 10.5 million = 21 seats
Combined population of this lot = 61.3 million, seats = 163
UK Population =63 million, seats = 74
So a lower population has more than twice the seats as the UK with Malta which has only 418,000 population having 6 seats with 70,000 population per seat (about the size of a small westminster consituency against UK with 851,000 population per seat, over ten times the size.
This is rotten to the core and also means that federalist countries like Luxembourg are disproportionately represented.
Separatist Parties: 37%
Unionist Parties: 63%
Now of course not all SLAB will vote no (tho the vast majority of Con will).......but it's hardly got "Yes landslide" written all over it....
There's nothing in these results to suggest anything other than a Hung Parliament next year. MP numbers will depend on how the UKIP vote redistributes, whether Greens stick or twist and what Thursday's non-voters do. Labour may well get a slightly disproportionate boost from the latter two.
Finally Scotland begins to loook a little better fron the Tory perspective - little sign also of a pro-independence surge.
But a lot of the moderating behind the scenes, in cabinet. Have no doubt that we would have had a much harder line government under a Conservative majority government.
For the first time in modern history neither labour or tories won an election and this is Just good?
Mind you the telegraph blogger who is claiming that the "Tory Machine Walked Away a Good Result" has to take the biscuit. The first time EVER the tories did not get first or second and it is a good result. Hate to think what a mediocre one would be.
As Nick Robinson suddenly stopped mid conversation and pointed out when the panel were earnestly discussing how many seats UKIP would get at this election, such a conservation would have been incredible only a few weeks ago.
PS - apologies for accidently clicking off topic, pressed wrong button.
Although my ARSE did not cover the Euro Elections the JackW prediction of :
Ukip 27% .. Lab 24% .. Con 22% .. Green 8% .. LibDem 8%
wasn't too shabby.
I'm hoping to put all the local/Euro numbers into ARSE by Wednesday to issue the latest ARSE 2015 GE prediction by Thursday. I also hope to name all the "JackW Dozen" - 13 constituencies that will determine the shape of the GE - by a week tomorrow.
Inheritance tax cuts for millionaires
• Bringing back O-levels
• A two-tier education system
• Profit-making in state schools
• New childcare ratios
• Firing workers at will, without any reasons given
• Regional pay penalising public sector workers in the north
• Scrapping housing benefit for young people
• Ditching the Human Rights Act
• Weakening the protections in the Equalities Act
• Closing down the debate on Trident
• Parliamentary boundary changes
• Scrapping Natural England
• Holding back green energy
• Stopping geography teachers telling children about how we can tackle climate change
• The snoopers' charter (draft communications data bill)
And remember it is not Indyref but an election - where the governing party held on to its vote in mid term. Certainly mixed news but not that much of a change except for LDs and UKIP. [edted to remove stray text] I'm not sure I would be too happy if I were Mr Miliband.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trident-may-be-retained-after-labour-rejects-lib-dem-idea-of-three-nuclear-subs-8710216.html
YH continues to drift rightwards and NW leftwards.
Take into account in any constituency bets.
PS. I have to say though that UKIP getting a seat in Scotland is very depressing, have to wonder what cretins voted that way.
I know Scotland's result won't officially come in until later today but is it looking like UKIP will win a seat there?
Under FPTP with what we saw last night its almost a lottery. Its going to reinforce the reality of this electoral system that national percentage shares and proportion of seats really have no meaning. Funnily enough Farage understands this better than anyone, and I think we're going to see them win more than the zero seats so many of you confidently state they will win based on 3 party thinking and national swings.
According to Wiki turnout in 2009 was 34.7% and turnout this time according to the BBC is 34.19%. I think I might have won my bet with Nick after all which is a bit unexpected to be honest.
Some of the factors on which I based my assessment have certainly been proven to be correct. The Labour vote where there were no other elections has not bothered. UKIP has not caused a surge in the NOTA who sat on their arses as usual. The LIb Dems face an extinction event and the tories turned out with heavy hearts on the back of quite a good internet campaign.
Something occurs to me. It has been much touted on here that a Yes vote would have a very nice consolation prize for the Tories in EWNI of permanently losing the anti-Tory voting Scots. The same is true for UKIP but also the quickest way for UKIP to get the issue of the UK's membership of the EU into question is simply to support the Yes side. A Yes victory would necessitate negotiations between EWNI and the EU for EWNI's continuing membership. This is not to suggest whether EWNI is or is not the continuing UK: it is a practical point forced by the loss of such things as Scottish fishing resources (access to which was used by the UK Government to gain concessions in other areas). And once negotiations are forced ...
I saw Andy Burnham speak on the subject last year, and he promised to work within the new structures. His only major proposal was to put local councillors on the boards to increase democratic accountability.
His more radical plans to integrate health and social care seems to have been vetoed by the two Eds, which is a pity.
http://tinyurl.com/lr7aq8v
With the 'Referendum Period' starting in 4 days, the Weir's Euromillions have been spent....what is going to budge 'No's 10 point lead?
Ukip will take the last seat ahead of the SNP regardless of the numbers yet to come in from the Western Isles.
OK, that's all pretty desperate.
Reminds me of that conman in the South Sea Bubble who set up a company which promised "an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is"
Not too disappointed the Lib Dems got a seat. May help keep Clegg in place.
Something ISN'T 'A Victory for Eck'!
I may have to lie down.....
Nicola Sturgeon: 'Voting SNP is the only way to stop Ukip'
The remarks, which came at the SNP's European election manifesto launch in Edinburgh, suggest the party has moved from viewing Ukip as an irrelevance in Scotland to a genuine political contender.
Last year Alex Salmond dismissed Ukip's appeal north of the border by saying they "dislike everybody" and know "absolutely nothing about Scotland".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10831966/Nicola-Sturgeon-Voting-SNP-is-the-only-way-to-stop-Ukip.html
Apparently a promise of an unknown shopping list of reforms followed by a referendum in which the Tories would campaighn to stay in has big appeal to voters who don't like Europe and think Cameron is an untrustworthy liar who already broke the last pledge.
To ensure that this narrative is maintained the pollsters may well continue as they have so far with a 3 party model and UKIP not prompted.
I share your delight at the collapse of the BNP. Down from 6.3% to 1.1% is quite something, and for all his faults Farage is no Nick Griffin.
You have to wonder at the mentality of the no immigration mob, who do they think will fund their welfare benefits in the future.
If this is the case, and that is replicated at a GE, doesn't that mean they could have a relatively limited impact in terms of seats?
I guess what you are looking for is where UKIP is currently within (BNP vote share + 5) of winning a seat. I know this is a little simplistic, but perhaps an interesting thought.
As I indicated way back in June 2010 they yellow peril were in this to the bitter end and basically bet the farm on events running their way in May 2015. They may still prove to be correct albeit with a diminished number of 40ish MP's -
The Great British Public tends to sympathise with puppies that are being kicked.
The problem labour has is that some aspects of Thatcherism were very popular with their core voters, as Mrs Thatcher demonstrated, however a good chunk of their core would never vote tory EVER. That dosent apply to UKIP. I expect to see and hear from people like Paul Nuttal a lot over the next year.
Labour have a major headache.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10855860/European-elections-2014-This-is-one-peasants-revolt-that-Brussels-cant-just-brush-aside.html
I do wonder if this will affect how Scots and leftwing areas elsewhere view the Conservatives. Will they remain the evil baby-eaters, or will UKIP assume that mantle and the blues be seen as at least 'better than UKIP'.
Mr. W, the General Election's looking interesting.
Feel free to correct my logic - just pondering the question...
For months, I've assumed UKIP would poll 25-30%..