politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going postal: Could a Democrat victory end up lost in the post

Pagan2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I sadly think we will see many more like Debenhams go

Debenhams was a dead man walking before covid it just hadn't laid down and died yet. Covid just accelerated the death scene

Thargest Department store chanin in Germany Galaria Kaufhoff/Karstadt announced in July many shop closures. Interestingly this announcement has allowed then to renegotiate the rent they pay for their shops quite agressively, and save at least 12 stores from the Axe. This is because the buildings are designed to be department stores, and the owners realise they will either have to spend millions changing the buildings for a different purpose or face the prospect of sitting on ghost stores.

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I see the 'Trump hasn't been quite as terrible as everyone said he would be' meme is taking hold. Presumably that wouldn't include those people saying that Trump's term would end up being unremarkable in the wider historical view of US presidents, or that he was probably more an instinctive Dem than a Republican, or after his first excesses that he was going to pivot to the centre any minute now. I believe some of these people even said such stuff on here.

He's a malignant cancer from which only the most radical surgery* will have a chance of saving the body politic, and with likely years of very slow convalescence even on the best prognosis. It's not only US politics that's been poisoned either.

*for the avoidance of doubt, that's a Dem landslide not assassination.

I'm not normally an authoritarian - let a thousand flowers bloom - but I'm afraid this is the only acceptable view on this one. And it really has nothing to do with left/right or lab/con or leave/remain or any of that stuff. Exorcising Trump and his baleful influence brings together all people of sound mind and good character. If you dissent from this assertion you are by definition missing at least one of those things.

Yes, good post. He brings the nation into disrepute.

Psychopaths shouldn`t be presidents. For that matter, how did one get anywhere near the Rep nomination in the first place?

eristdoof said:

Pagan2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I sadly think we will see many more like Debenhams go

Debenhams was a dead man walking before covid it just hadn't laid down and died yet. Covid just accelerated the death scene

Thargest Department store chanin in Germany Galaria Kaufhoff/Karstadt announced in July many shop closures. Interestingly this announcement has allowed then to renegotiate the rent they pay for their shops quite agressively, and save at least 12 stores from the Axe. This is because the buildings are designed to be department stores, and the owners realise they will either have to spend millions changing the buildings for a different purpose or face the prospect of sitting on ghost stores.

I believe that Debenhams has already tried that, in a previous cost cutting round.

Ah yes, found it....

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/12/debenhams-seeks-rent-cuts-20-stores/

Theuniondivvie said:

FactcheckUK now an official arm of government.

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1294596006001160192?s=20

https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1294609878770647041?s=20

I posted the gov.uk link earlier this morning. I agree with its content. Stupid comment by Bendor.

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1294601307068735488?s=21

That’s bizarre. Even Lukashenko wasn’t thick enough to admit he’d rigged the elections in advance.

There's a uniqueness about Trump, where he's both watching predictions of what may unfold on news channels, tweeting about them, and then attempting to actively fulfil and realise these predictions too, to participate in this continuous media process which he lives off.

The only parallel I can think of is David Bowie's character in The Man Who Fell To Earth, who incessantly watches mounted banks of 20 TV's and different channels at the same time, from the solitude of his hotel room ; although that character was more benign.

MrEd said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Stocky said:

Jonathan said:

Trump is approaching democracy in the same way he approached business. How anyone here remotely defends or provides cover for what he is up to is beyond me. I am looking at you Charles. Trump is beneath whatever foul bile lurks beneath contempt. He needs to be defeated. Trump's brand of skulduggery will take all the energy and ingenuity that the Dems and decent people possess. I give them at best a 50:50 chance.

Meanwhile our government, which has its own taste for skulduggery, is moving through the gears from shambolic to a down right bone fide basket case. How anyone can support it is quite beyond me at the moment. Again, Labour has a ton of work to do to pull itself out of the abyss it dug itself into and being in a position to win.

Bad times.

"How anyone here remotely defends or provides cover for [Trump]?" Hmm. It`s a head-scratcher that one - the loathsome manchild-toad that he is.

Can anyone shed any light? The only thing I can think of is that would dissuade me from voting for Biden with relish is the "taking the knee" stuff and a general concern about a wokey direction - but I`m less concerned about that than I would be if it wasn`t Biden.

Trump has to go. It`s crucial.

OK I'll bite. The case for Trump:
1) no more Neocon wars
2) he failed to repeal Obamacare
3) lower taxes for rich people
4) anti-China; not anti-Russia

The case against Biden:
1) he's past it
2) Dems want to sieze the people's guns and shoot babies

Despite all the rhetoric Trump has been the least warlike and hawkish US President since Carter, there have been no new US invasions of other nations under Trump and not even any major air strikes.

Domestically apart from being more protectionist than free trade he has not done much different from the average Republican President and the US still has gay marriage and legal abortion.

Trump may be a caricature in rhetoric but in policy terms it is more his cultural anti immigration and anti PC language that annoys the left and liberals

Exactly. As a non-US citizen, the effect has been neutral bordering on benign - had Hillary won, we could have been elbow deep in a Middle East war costing billions AND Covid by now. As a US citizen, I can strongly understand them wanting someone less cringey and just more pleasant, but I'm not, so I don't mind one way or t'other.

I do tend to agree that Trump's caution relative dovishness has some benefits. His bone spurs were no bad thing... I think he shies away from that sort of area partly because he know's he's particularly vulnerable to the charge he's sending young people to die when he dodged service.

But I don't agree he's been benign on the international stage at all - being (to an extent rightly) cautious on commiting troops isn't what makes someone benign by itself. He's allowed - indeed helped - Putin massively to expand his influence in a way that is hugely harmful. He's undermined international bodies like the UN and NATO at every opportunity. He's disengaged completely from global action on climate change. He's set a template for a generation of populists who tend to be damaging to their own countries and distabilising to the world more broadly. These are no small matters.

Could you explain what you mean by "He's allowed - indeed helped - Putin massively to expand his influence in a way that is hugely harmful. "?

Under Obama, Putin took Crimea and basically controlled Eastern Ukraine, as well as everything else he was doing in the Caucasus. The biggest increase Russia had in influence was then, in part because Obama didn't want to look stupid after laughing at Mitt Romney in the 2012 debates for saying Russia was a threat. Bar Syria (which is a tragedy but not sure the US should be getting involved there), Russia is causing far fewer issues than it did several years back

The recent decline in Russia's interventions abroad is probably related to the collapse in oil price. Russia is very much an oil economy now.

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

Stocky said:

Theuniondivvie said:

FactcheckUK now an official arm of government.

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1294596006001160192?s=20

https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1294609878770647041?s=20

I posted the gov.uk link earlier this morning. I agree with its content. Stupid comment by Bendor.

The bit from that I find interesting is that -

"in 96% of cases grades were the same as submitted by teachers or were just one grade different."

Is that correct?

In 96% of cases the notes I play on the organ are the right note or the note next to it.

That does not mean 96% of the notes I play are correct.

In fact they’re both right - 40% were regraded, but 39% were graded down and 1% graded up.

Thank you - that last sentence is the crucial bit.

justin124 said:

I know a guy who works as an astrologer. He has taken account of Trump & Biden's time, date and place of birth details. He gives Trump a 51% chance of winning on November 3rd.

Could we use him to set GCSE grades?

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I see the 'Trump hasn't been quite as terrible as everyone said he would be' meme is taking hold. Presumably that wouldn't include those people saying that Trump's term would end up being unremarkable in the wider historical view of US presidents, or that he was probably more an instinctive Dem than a Republican, or after his first excesses that he was going to pivot to the centre any minute now. I believe some of these people even said such stuff on here.

He's a malignant cancer from which only the most radical surgery* will have a chance of saving the body politic, and with likely years of very slow convalescence even on the best prognosis. It's not only US politics that's been poisoned either.

*for the avoidance of doubt, that's a Dem landslide not assassination.

I'm not normally an authoritarian - let a thousand flowers bloom - but I'm afraid this is the only acceptable view on this one. And it really has nothing to do with left/right or lab/con or leave/remain or any of that stuff. Exorcising Trump and his baleful influence brings together all people of sound mind and good character. If you dissent from this assertion you are by definition missing at least one of those things.

Yes, good post. He brings the nation into disrepute.

Psychopaths shouldn`t be presidents. For that matter, how did one get anywhere near the Rep nomination in the first place?

Now there's a question. Lots of answers, obvs, but I'd pick out the media as one of them. Intense relationship both ways, 24/7 fascination, great for ratings, they thought they were exploiting him but he knew he was exploiting them.

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I see the 'Trump hasn't been quite as terrible as everyone said he would be' meme is taking hold. Presumably that wouldn't include those people saying that Trump's term would end up being unremarkable in the wider historical view of US presidents, or that he was probably more an instinctive Dem than a Republican, or after his first excesses that he was going to pivot to the centre any minute now. I believe some of these people even said such stuff on here.

He's a malignant cancer from which only the most radical surgery* will have a chance of saving the body politic, and with likely years of very slow convalescence even on the best prognosis. It's not only US politics that's been poisoned either.

*for the avoidance of doubt, that's a Dem landslide not assassination.

I'm not normally an authoritarian - let a thousand flowers bloom - but I'm afraid this is the only acceptable view on this one. And it really has nothing to do with left/right or lab/con or leave/remain or any of that stuff. Exorcising Trump and his baleful influence brings together all people of sound mind and good character. If you dissent from this assertion you are by definition missing at least one of those things.

Yes, good post. He brings the nation into disrepute.

Psychopaths shouldn`t be presidents. For that matter, how did one get anywhere near the Rep nomination in the first place?

Now there's a question. Lots of answers, obvs, but I'd pick out the media as one of them. Intense relationship both ways, 24/7 fascination, great for ratings, they thought they were exploiting him but he knew he was exploiting them.

Absolutely. Trump is a full five-year media and communications course and Phd in himself. A French thinker like Baudrillard would say he's a culmination of endlessly reproduced spectacle overwhelming democratic routes and institutional accountability.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I sadly think we will see many more like Debenhams go

Debenhams will be missed but the big one would be M & S

They will close stores but food will save them for sure.

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Malmesbury said:

Stocky said:

nichomar said:

JohnLilburne said:

Fishing said:

Stocky said:

Fishing said:

MaxPB said:

Fishing said:

nichomar said:

Is there any data on imported Covid cases and fro which countries, would be good to have this published to support the quarantine requirements.

It'll be insignificant I imagine. The only data I recall is from March, when it accounted for 0.5% of cases. And that was when entry was unrestricted.

No it wasn't, it was a huge source of ongoing infection. The academics were wrong about quarantine and Priti Patel was right, overruling her is going to look very bad during the investigation.

Evidence?

You may be disgreeing about different things.

Originally the virus came to us 100% from abroad via travellers. That much is obvious - it didn`t blow over here. But once it multiplied significantly here the vast majority of further infections came by transmission within the country not from abroad.

Hence, the argument for grounding planes was valid right at the start, but quickly became less valid.

I don't think we are, because MaxPB said it was a huge "ongoing" source of infections.

But if we are, then I agree. Quarantine may have stopped the virus in January/February, though it wasn't politically feasible then. Also, as we don't really bother to enforce it here, even that's questionable.

This https://virological.org/t/preliminary-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-importation-establishment-of-uk-transmission-lineages/507

By the time we locked down, it was too late. It would have been effective to close the borders before February half term (any later would have just stranded hundreds of thousand of Brits abroad). I suspect this is driving current policy. Spain had over 7,000 new cases yesterday, and France about 3,000.

Still the odds of getting infected are low especially if you follow the rules. I’d like to know how many have imported the virus in the last few weeks?

What do you mean? If a person was abroad in the last few weeks in a country with a lower new infection rate than the UK then the "imported" infection will be lower, on average, than if that same person had stayed in the UK.

I have been told that the emphasis on travel *now* is because when you get to a certain level of community infection, re-introduction from abroad goes from being noise in the data, to a major factor.

Who told you that? That makes no sense. It doesn`t matter whether a new infection is foreign or home-grown. Infection in a particular community will be affected by a newly infected person in that community - whether the the new infection came from within that community, from another part of the UK or from Timbuktu.

Perhaps with some there is a feeling that a disease caught in foreign parts and imported here is just that little bit worse than something homegrown.

British bugs for British people.

It is rather simple really - if the community infection rate is high, the introductions from abroad is noise.

If the community infection rate drops, but the introduction rate doesn't drop much, then it becomes more significant.

Yes. That sounds logical. I was about to launch into an analogy with internationalism vs "socialism in one country" - Trotsky vs Stalin- but all will be disappointed to hear that on second thoughts I won't be.

If you look at everything through your political biases, then you will miss a great deal.

For example, everyone looking at the MidEast peace deal is trying to frame it as another fuck up by Trump. Because most people don't like him.

The real question is - what is Israel and the UAE getting out of this? Trump is just a bystander. He may try and grab credit, but he didn't drive this.

Agreed. Which is why I don't and thus miss nothing.

Trump and the "Deal", also agree. It may be serious and good or serious and bad or just a load of nothing much except smoke and mirrors - dunno, above my paygrade - but he will indeed and undoubtedly be a passenger only. He is not capable of driving anything other than ill-informed and divisive discourse.

No, he is capable of driving such things - his relationship with the current Saudi Government, for example. Which is a serious cause for concern.

Just because he is a loathsome fool, doesn't make him incapable of doing anything.

I meant "driving" as in plotting out and navigating a complex geopolitical journey with a destination in the interests of the American people and of the wider world. That is (sadly) no can do. And (even more sadly) no want to do. But I do totally agree that he is capable of creeping around the assholes of other autocrats. Loves a "Strongman". Thinks he is one. And yes, that is a matter of serious concern.

Yes, I think his relative harmlessness in foreign affairs is down mainly to the fact that he doesn't actually do a great deal. He lacks the drive, the intensity and above all he lacks a clear and coherent plan. In this respect I've always regarded him much more of a Mussolini* than a Hitler, an extemporising bullshitter rather than a vindictive zealot.

*Not that I wish to see him end up like Benito. I have nothing against lampposts.

justin124 said:

kamski said:

Charles said:

Voting by mail is not done inalienable democratic right. The Dems are pushing it for partisan reasons (and the GOP are resisting it for the same reason)

Limitations on the number of polling stations is far more serious from a democratic perspective. There is no reasonable argument that can be made as to why that might be acceptable.

What a bizarre and frankly antidemocratic comment. So many people rely on postal voting. You nay as well say the same about polling stations.

In the UK postal voting has not been a readily available option until fairly recent years - the 1990s I believe.Prior tothat any postal vote application had to be backed by a doctor's signature or a statement by the applicant that their job could require them to be absent on the day of an election. Those away on holiday had no entitlement to a postal vote.

So things have got better since then. Unless, like the US Republican party, you think the fewer people voting, the better.

justin124 said:

I know a guy who works as an astrologer. He has taken account of Trump & Biden's time, date and place of birth details. He gives Trump a 51% chance of winning on November 3rd.

How do you 'work' as an astrologer? Who pays someone for that - the Met Office?

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1294631845422862339

I cannot argue with that as it was always a disaster waiting to happen with Williamson in charge

I do understand it is quite wrong to give all pupils the teacher assessments this year if it is not normal practice, and of course ,while it is the popular choice, it may not be the correct choice as it stores up problems for future years

I do not know the perfect answer and it seems the Welsh government is having similar problems to England

However, if HMG had a competent Education Minister from the start it would have helped credibility but Williamson joins quite a number of ministers that are simply not upto the mark and need firing

Malmesbury said:

Reagan wasn't just an actor. He had a complex and surprisingly intellectual background - he wrote many of his own speeches over the years. The acting was just his career before he moved into politics full time. Where he became a popular and successful Governor of California for 2 terms.

As opposed to Trump. Who after a lifetime of staggering from one shitty business deal to another....

Reagan's Evil Empire speech, combined with Soviet paranoia, damn nearly caused World War 3.

Telling the truth does that sometimes.

Thank God for Gordievsky.

Peter_the_Punter said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Malmesbury said:

Stocky said:

nichomar said:

JohnLilburne said:

Fishing said:

Stocky said:

Fishing said:

MaxPB said:

Fishing said:

nichomar said:

Is there any data on imported Covid cases and fro which countries, would be good to have this published to support the quarantine requirements.

It'll be insignificant I imagine. The only data I recall is from March, when it accounted for 0.5% of cases. And that was when entry was unrestricted.

No it wasn't, it was a huge source of ongoing infection. The academics were wrong about quarantine and Priti Patel was right, overruling her is going to look very bad during the investigation.

Evidence?

You may be disgreeing about different things.

Originally the virus came to us 100% from abroad via travellers. That much is obvious - it didn`t blow over here. But once it multiplied significantly here the vast majority of further infections came by transmission within the country not from abroad.

Hence, the argument for grounding planes was valid right at the start, but quickly became less valid.

I don't think we are, because MaxPB said it was a huge "ongoing" source of infections.

But if we are, then I agree. Quarantine may have stopped the virus in January/February, though it wasn't politically feasible then. Also, as we don't really bother to enforce it here, even that's questionable.

This https://virological.org/t/preliminary-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-importation-establishment-of-uk-transmission-lineages/507

By the time we locked down, it was too late. It would have been effective to close the borders before February half term (any later would have just stranded hundreds of thousand of Brits abroad). I suspect this is driving current policy. Spain had over 7,000 new cases yesterday, and France about 3,000.

Still the odds of getting infected are low especially if you follow the rules. I’d like to know how many have imported the virus in the last few weeks?

What do you mean? If a person was abroad in the last few weeks in a country with a lower new infection rate than the UK then the "imported" infection will be lower, on average, than if that same person had stayed in the UK.

I have been told that the emphasis on travel *now* is because when you get to a certain level of community infection, re-introduction from abroad goes from being noise in the data, to a major factor.

Who told you that? That makes no sense. It doesn`t matter whether a new infection is foreign or home-grown. Infection in a particular community will be affected by a newly infected person in that community - whether the the new infection came from within that community, from another part of the UK or from Timbuktu.

Perhaps with some there is a feeling that a disease caught in foreign parts and imported here is just that little bit worse than something homegrown.

British bugs for British people.

It is rather simple really - if the community infection rate is high, the introductions from abroad is noise.

If the community infection rate drops, but the introduction rate doesn't drop much, then it becomes more significant.

Yes. That sounds logical. I was about to launch into an analogy with internationalism vs "socialism in one country" - Trotsky vs Stalin- but all will be disappointed to hear that on second thoughts I won't be.

If you look at everything through your political biases, then you will miss a great deal.

For example, everyone looking at the MidEast peace deal is trying to frame it as another fuck up by Trump. Because most people don't like him.

The real question is - what is Israel and the UAE getting out of this? Trump is just a bystander. He may try and grab credit, but he didn't drive this.

Agreed. Which is why I don't and thus miss nothing.

Trump and the "Deal", also agree. It may be serious and good or serious and bad or just a load of nothing much except smoke and mirrors - dunno, above my paygrade - but he will indeed and undoubtedly be a passenger only. He is not capable of driving anything other than ill-informed and divisive discourse.

No, he is capable of driving such things - his relationship with the current Saudi Government, for example. Which is a serious cause for concern.

Just because he is a loathsome fool, doesn't make him incapable of doing anything.

I meant "driving" as in plotting out and navigating a complex geopolitical journey with a destination in the interests of the American people and of the wider world. That is (sadly) no can do. And (even more sadly) no want to do. But I do totally agree that he is capable of creeping around the assholes of other autocrats. Loves a "Strongman". Thinks he is one. And yes, that is a matter of serious concern.

Yes, I think his relative harmlessness in foreign affairs is down mainly to the fact that he doesn't actually do a great deal. He lacks the drive, the intensity and above all he lacks a clear and coherent plan. In this respect I've always regarded him much more of a Mussolini* than a Hitler, an extemporising bullshitter rather than a vindictive zealot.

*Not that I wish to see him end up like Benito. I have nothing against lampposts.

Gramsci says hello from the vindictive zealot front.

There's been a bit of a stushy about the R4 programme Great Lives because the historian Margaret MacMillan (who I usually have a bit of time for) chose Mussolini as her great life. I could see fascinating or interesting life, but great?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Williamson joins quite a number of ministers that are simply not upto the mark and need firing

BoZo can't sack him.

That would be the first crack in the Dam of "never backdown, never explain, never apologise"

And if the notion catches hold that people can lose their job for being incompetent, well who knows where that could lead !

Better not to take that risk...

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

Stocky said:

Theuniondivvie said:

FactcheckUK now an official arm of government.

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1294596006001160192?s=20

https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1294609878770647041?s=20

I posted the gov.uk link earlier this morning. I agree with its content. Stupid comment by Bendor.

The bit from that I find interesting is that -

"in 96% of cases grades were the same as submitted by teachers or were just one grade different."

Is that correct?

In 96% of cases the notes I play on the organ are the right note or the note next to it.

That does not mean 96% of the notes I play are correct.

In fact they’re both right - 40% were regraded, but 39% were graded down and 1% graded up.

Thank you - that last sentence is the crucial bit.

Roughly speaking 60% of grades were what teachers gave out. 36% were adjusted by one grade, 4% by two or more.

Next week, it is expected to be 60% of grades adjusted, because the algorithm - which as we can see just by looking at the way it operates and the more or less random results it has been giving out, is deeply flawed - is setting a higher percentage of them due to greater student numbers.

ydoethur - can you provide a link to how the algorithm works? My assumption is that they are looking at last year (or maybe last three year?) average for each particular school and trying to replicate the grade pattern with the teacher submitted pupil ranking order. I suppose it`s more complicated than that?

Secondly, my daughter is SEN pupil (dyslexia) and is entitled to extra exam time - has this been filtered into the system anywhere - either in the algorithm or in the teacher rankings?

1) This is a good article written by actual experts on the subject, not by the lowlifes at the DfE or Ofqual.

https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/

2) It should have been part of the teacher rankings, but it will not have been used as part of the algorithm.

noneoftheabove said:

slade said:

nichomar said:

slade said:

nichomar said:

slade said:

NickPalmer said:

Charles said:

Voting by mail is not done inalienable democratic right. The Dems are pushing it for partisan reasons (and the GOP are resisting it for the same reason)

Limitations on the number of polling stations is far more serious from a democratic perspective. There is no reasonable argument that can be made as to why that might be acceptable.

I remember a local council election where the (LibDem) town council decided to move some of the polling stations AND "save money" by not sending out polling cards or informing residents of where they'd moved the stations to. People were supposed to read the announcement in modest print affixed to a notice outside the town hall, or read the leaflets put out by parties. On the day, we had to put tellers at the "wrong" stations to redirect voters. It was a safe LD seat and they felt that other parties contesting it was an offensive waste of time and money.

Because it was a town council election and a safe seat, opponents were only midly outraged, and even amused at the effrontery. We teased the LDs about it for years, though. That sort of thing at the level of the US Presidency is less entertaining.

This is not unusual. My town council is run by a group of independents. Despite the council being very wealthy they have decreed that by elections are too expensive and fill any vacancies by co-option.

They can’t do that by choice they can only do it if nobody asks for an election which requires ten signatures. If no candidates are nominated then again they can co-opt

We tried this. The Lib Dems asked for a by-election, the Independents put out a leaflet highlighting the costs of the election and won handsomely.

That’s a failure of the local Lib Dems I’m afraid, if they have a record of year round campaigning and run a good election they should win. Most independents are con dependents and should be exposed as such. It does depend on your precept though, if it’s 5000/pa then spending 2000 on an election is excessive. We always used to budget for at least one by election each year so the cost was covered.

It's a complicated story. When I moved in there were 10 Lib Dems, I Lab, and I Con. In 2003 it became 9 LD ( including me) and 3 Ind ( one of whom was a Lib Dem expelled from the party, and one a former Lab councillor). In 2007 it was 7 LD and 6 Ind, then the disaster of 2011 it was 11 Ind and 1 LD (me). Despite regular leafletting and canvassing we saw our vote slip away. I think one of the reasons ( and this affects Lab and Con as well) is the Independent line that we are controlled by 'the centre' and only the Independents can represent local people.

Do the independents do a good job? Are they a cohesive group with a plan or "proper" independents. I've never lived in a place where independents have done well, I like the idea in principle but no idea how effective it would be in reality.

It depends on the Independent Group. Though for Town Councils remember that TCs have virtually no powers and tend to do the old Red Phone Box, 2 sets of swings and a local loo, and that's about it.

For District Councils, my favourite was the "Boston Bypass Independents".

Mansfield had an Independent Executive Mayor from 2002 to 2019. and was controlled by the Mansfield Independent for 3 of the 4 terms. I am not sure how well they have done, though much development and industrial growth has happened. But the Town Centre is not good.

Ashfield District next door is currently independent controlled since last year, but these are a coherent party not a tactically compiled ragbag. They have their roots in LibDems, split off because of reasons, and minus the recent nutty Libdem policies on Brexit. So far they seem to be doing OK to me on balance - town centre funding coming in and good ideas, plus amusing spatettes with the new red wall Tory MP.

A certain amount of "because we can" stuff from one or two Councillors. Personally I would take them over Tories or Labour at the moment.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

Stocky said:

Theuniondivvie said:

FactcheckUK now an official arm of government.

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1294596006001160192?s=20

https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1294609878770647041?s=20

I posted the gov.uk link earlier this morning. I agree with its content. Stupid comment by Bendor.

The bit from that I find interesting is that -

"in 96% of cases grades were the same as submitted by teachers or were just one grade different."

Is that correct?

In 96% of cases the notes I play on the organ are the right note or the note next to it.

That does not mean 96% of the notes I play are correct.

In fact they’re both right - 40% were regraded, but 39% were graded down and 1% graded up.

Thank you - that last sentence is the crucial bit.

Roughly speaking 60% of grades were what teachers gave out. 36% were adjusted by one grade, 4% by two or more.

Next week, it is expected to be 60% of grades adjusted, because the algorithm - which as we can see just by looking at the way it operates and the more or less random results it has been giving out, is deeply flawed, and will have less data to work with - is setting a higher percentage of them due to greater student numbers.

However, that is in fact less serious because it’s GCSEs and there is time to sort things out. As I said yesterday, A-levels are 24 hours of shit or bust.

Last Thursday, it was definitely shit.

As pupils normally take many more GCSEs than A levels, then presumably more individuals would be affected by the wonky algorithm.

And many more pupils take GCSEs than A-levels.

kamski said:

justin124 said:

kamski said:

Charles said:

Voting by mail is not done inalienable democratic right. The Dems are pushing it for partisan reasons (and the GOP are resisting it for the same reason)

Limitations on the number of polling stations is far more serious from a democratic perspective. There is no reasonable argument that can be made as to why that might be acceptable.

What a bizarre and frankly antidemocratic comment. So many people rely on postal voting. You nay as well say the same about polling stations.

In the UK postal voting has not been a readily available option until fairly recent years - the 1990s I believe.Prior tothat any postal vote application had to be backed by a doctor's signature or a statement by the applicant that their job could require them to be absent on the day of an election. Those away on holiday had no entitlement to a postal vote.

So things have got better since then. Unless, like the US Republican party, you think the fewer people voting, the better.

Hard to see much evidence that it has improved turnout -

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I see the 'Trump hasn't been quite as terrible as everyone said he would be' meme is taking hold. Presumably that wouldn't include those people saying that Trump's term would end up being unremarkable in the wider historical view of US presidents, or that he was probably more an instinctive Dem than a Republican, or after his first excesses that he was going to pivot to the centre any minute now. I believe some of these people even said such stuff on here.

He's a malignant cancer from which only the most radical surgery* will have a chance of saving the body politic, and with likely years of very slow convalescence even on the best prognosis. It's not only US politics that's been poisoned either.

*for the avoidance of doubt, that's a Dem landslide not assassination.

!! I'm not normally an authoritarian !! - let a thousand flowers bloom - but I'm afraid this is the only acceptable view on this one. And it really has nothing to do with left/right or lab/con or leave/remain or any of that stuff. Exorcising Trump and his baleful influence brings together all people of sound mind and good character. If you dissent from this assertion you are by definition missing at least one of those things.

Very drole.

Afternoon all

A thoroughly depressing thread from @david_herdson for which, as always, many thanks.

Democracy relies on trust - the electorate puts its trust in the people for whom they vote (or its distrust of those for whom they vote against) but there is also the trust that politicians (however cynical we may be about them publicly and privately) are themselves democrats who will respect the wishes of the electorate and allow elections to take place freely and fairly.

That we are openly talking about the cynical manipulation of the electoral process basically puts Trump in the same camp as Lukashenko. I understand Trump's desire to remain in power - almost all politicians love the power and want to keep it though some (May, Major and Brown to name but three) cross a personal rubicon after which they would rather be anywhere else than 10 Downing Street.

Regrettably, a free and fair electoral process exists in name only in too many places - allegations of fraud are exaggerated to empower restricting the franchise and we see in too many countries pliant or scared or corrupt officials who, through shameless exercises in intimidation and chicanery, manipulate the electoral results to favour the incumbent.

If you believe in democracy, you have to respect the will of the people even if you don't like it. That's why I left the Party which I had supported and for which I had campaigned and argued for nearly 40 years. If you believe in democracy you have to allow the free and fair conduct of elections. Now, you might argue even in the freest and fairest of societies, money talks and money can buy votes and there's some truth in that but I don't believe in Britain you would ever have local council officers stuffing ballot boxes with pro-Government votes.

Unfortunately, we know that happens in some countries which claim to be democracies and whether such abuses of the principles of democracy are flagrant or subtle they have to be condoned by those closest to the incumbent leader, party or administration.

If you want the definition of true courage, it's to protest the flagrant abuse of your democracy in the knowledge armed police or soldiers will shoot you dead for having the temerity to have that opinion. We should applaud those protesting in Belarus and demand a new election with UN observers - perhaps the US election needs similar. I hope I never have to argue the same for UK elections but the temptation to condone the abuse of democracy in order to either keep the trappings of power for yourself or prevent them falling into the hands of another is powerful and for those with insufficiently robust characters too powerful.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1294631845422862339

I cannot argue with that as it was always a disaster waiting to happen with Williamson in charge

I do understand it is quite wrong to give all pupils the teacher assessments this year if it is not normal practice, and of course ,while it is the popular choice, it may not be the correct choice as it stores up problems for future years

I do not know the perfect answer and it seems the Welsh government is having similar problems to England

However, if HMG had a competent Education Minister from the start it would have helped credibility but Williamson joins quite a number of ministers that are simply not upto the mark and need firing

I think that`s unfair BigG - and I say that as a parent who has a child going through this right now. What should Ofqual have done?

They decided on getting as accurate as possible teacher grade expectations for each pupil and to rank them league style. Then they matched that as best they could with the school`s historic performance. The result is grades that are consistent with previous years results so as to maintain their credibility (to give them "equal standing with normal years", as Ofqual says).

Those that are criticising are saying either 1) that this year`s results should NOT have equal standing, ie they should be higher or 2) the teacher rankings were wrong. If they are alleging 2) then this cannot be proven as subjective judgement is part of it and if Johnny was placed lower in the ranking that he deserved then it follows that Jimmy was higher in the ranking than he deserved.

The one reason I see for changing to the centre assessed grades is to sacrifice the equal standing with previous years aspect and go with equal standing with Scotland. I see it as a big problem that Scottish pupils have been massively advantaged versus others. Malcy will be at my throat any minute now.

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1294631845422862339

I cannot argue with that as it was always a disaster waiting to happen with Williamson in charge

I do understand it is quite wrong to give all pupils the teacher assessments this year if it is not normal practice, and of course ,while it is the popular choice, it may not be the correct choice as it stores up problems for future years

I do not know the perfect answer and it seems the Welsh government is having similar problems to England

However, if HMG had a competent Education Minister from the start it would have helped credibility but Williamson joins quite a number of ministers that are simply not upto the mark and need firing

I think that`s unfair BigG - and I say that as a parent who has a child going through this right now. What should Ofqual have done?

They decided on getting as accurate as possible teacher grade expectations for each pupil and to rank them league style. Then they matched that as best they could with the school`s historic performance. The result is grades that are consistent with previous years results so as to maintain their credibility (to give them "equal standing with normal years", as Ofqual says).

Those that are criticising are saying either 1) that this year`s results should NOT have equal standing, ie they should be higher or 2) the teacher rankings were wrong. If they are alleging 2) then this cannot be proven as subjective judgement is part of it and if Johnny was placed lower in the ranking that he deserved then it follows that Jimmy was higher in the ranking than he deserved.

The one reason I see for changing to the centre assessed grades is to sacrifice the equal standing with previous years aspect and go with equal standing with Scotland. I see it as a big problem that Scottish pupils have been massively advantaged versus others. Malcy will be at my throat any minute now.

The decision in Scotland was political and it must store up future problems on fairness

My main point is that Willamson has no street cred and just makes things worse.

This must have been foreseen and the decision to provide free appeals and have Nick Gibb to lead a task force should have been made at the time and not cobbled together days later by a panicking Williamson

another_richard said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I see the 'Trump hasn't been quite as terrible as everyone said he would be' meme is taking hold. Presumably that wouldn't include those people saying that Trump's term would end up being unremarkable in the wider historical view of US presidents, or that he was probably more an instinctive Dem than a Republican, or after his first excesses that he was going to pivot to the centre any minute now. I believe some of these people even said such stuff on here.

He's a malignant cancer from which only the most radical surgery* will have a chance of saving the body politic, and with likely years of very slow convalescence even on the best prognosis. It's not only US politics that's been poisoned either.

*for the avoidance of doubt, that's a Dem landslide not assassination.

I'm not normally an authoritarian - let a thousand flowers bloom - but I'm afraid this is the only acceptable view on this one. And it really has nothing to do with left/right or lab/con or leave/remain or any of that stuff. Exorcising Trump and his baleful influence brings together all people of sound mind and good character. If you dissent from this assertion you are by definition missing at least one of those things.

Yes, good post. He brings the nation into disrepute.

Psychopaths shouldn`t be presidents. For that matter, how did one get anywhere near the Rep nomination in the first place?

Now there's a question. Lots of answers, obvs, but I'd pick out the media as one of them. Intense relationship both ways, 24/7 fascination, great for ratings, they thought they were exploiting him but he knew he was exploiting them.

Trump was the perfect candidate for the twatter era. Or turn that around and say the twatter era was perfect for Trump.

Another aspect was that it was the failure of the GOP establishment which led to Trump.

There was a decade ago on PB an American GOP supporter called StarsAndStripes.

He was scornful of the idea that Trump could get nominated by the GOP and that if he did would suffer enormous defeat.

To my faint surprise we appear to be on the same page. And a confession. For all my opposition to Trump - and I yield to nobody in this - I am not immune to his pull. If he's on, I find it hard to not watch. When he's gone a bit of me will miss him. But that bit of me is not a bit I'm proud of or wish to feed. This is the essence of him imo. He appeals to everything in people that is mean and small and shallow and dumb. We are all to a greater or lesser extent like that and this - forget poll rigging, covid, the economy, all of that superficial stuff - is the real reason he cannot be counted out for 3/11.

kamski said:

LostPassword said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

kamski said:

moonshine said:

another_richard said:

Re Trump

Has anyone mentioned his diplomatic triumph of the Israel-UAE deal ?

I'm curious as to whether any PBers are big enough to admit Trump has done well in this case.

I did raise this in the context of what is generally a relatively favourable (and unquestionably quite benign) foreign policy record. To liberally paraphrase, the Brain Trust here conclude that only the “gullible” see this deal as good news and it’s actually all about setting up an anti Shia alliance to start world war 3 in Trump’s second term. Or something.

I hope Trump loses because I don’t like his undermining of democratic principles and personal conduct, which sets an appalling example to kids worldwide. But I don’t live in the US so am overall fairly ambivalent to the result if he delivers a second term roughly in keeping with his first with respect to China policy and the economy.

The very best thing about Trump losing now is it reduces the chances of an AOC presidency down the line.

I would seriously question the idea that Trump's foreign policy has been "quite benign". So definitely not "unquestionably". Even without global overheating there is a lot to criticise in foreign policy terms.

When you take his pro catastrophic global overheating policies into account, his foreign policy is unquestionably by far the worst of any US president ever. There isn't going to be any kind of peaceful world if we carry on burning fossil fuels like Trump wants.

Solar power is already competitive with fossil fuels without having to be subsided in many parts of the world and the article I linked to above suggests that it’s going to get substantially (about a third) better In the next few years.
Wind generated power is on a similar track.
This means that coal is rapidly turning into an expensive as well as dirty option which is the point where all the money grubbing capitalists abandon it without having to be told to.

Not all of them - those that own coal plants and mines will be lobbying hard for taxes and regulation on renewables so that they can slow down the transition as much as possible, and make as much money as possible in the interim.

This process has already been seen in the US and Australia, with attempts to charge people with solar panels a tax to "support the electricity grid" - aka subsidise coal.

And this is only about electricity generation. People are still *buying* diesel and petrol vehicles, for example, by the millions.
Leaving it to the industrialists is one of the most stupid ideas I've seen on here. Leaving it to the industrialists has got us to the terrible situation we are in today, 30 years after the science of global warming was clear and almost no progress made since. Even US emissions are higher than in 1990, the country that should be leading the way.

We basically need to decarbonise extremely rapidly to have a reasonable chance of avoiding catastrophe. This is just not going to happen quickly enough without strong political action.

The need for large government economic stimuli might just give the required impetus for such action.
Which is massively more likely under Biden than Trump.

Some Belarusian paratroops siding with the protestors:

https://twitter.com/CarmenOfficial_/status/1294648144601415682?s=09

PA Media: "Meghan ‘devastated’ to return and see state of US". Reading this report, there can no longer be any doubt about her intended direction of travel. How could she (or Harry) ever imagine that such outspoken political statements could ever have remotely enabled them to continue as any part of the Royal family? A 100% split from The Firm following their 12 month trial period now appears the only realistic option.

Malmesbury said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Y2UJUhL74

Don't know if anyone has seen this but the whole video of the George Floyd death has been released. I believe this isn't the whole video but it's still useful context nonetheless.

Pretty certain I saw it a week or more ago.

Did you have any thoughts on it?

Ptretty shocking and disgusted by the cops' behavior.

The initial approach is hamfisted to put it mildly. If you sitting in a car doing nothing obviously wrong and someone approaches from your blind side and taps sharply on the window you're going to be startled, and that's in this country where it is not common for people to carry guns.

It isn't obvious why the door has to be opened and the suspect told to show his hands. No obvious offence has been committed. The suspect could just as easily have been asked to lower the window to allow questioning.

Why was a gun pulled? The suspect was not being violent or showing indications of becomins so. (The suspect was not in fairness helping himself by his hysterical and erratic behaviour, and was contributing to an escalation.)

Th relevant bigger picture here is of undertrained and overarmed officers being sent out to enforce order in a population where guns are far too widely available and cooperation with the police far too problematic. If you send jerks into an explosive situation, this is what you get.

https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/12/police-gun-shooting-training-ferguson/383681/

Thanks, that does highlight some of the issues, but they run very deep and wide.

Scott_xP said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

The overwhelming impression is of stunning incompetence.

Have you read Malcolm Gladwell, Talking to Strangers?

No, is it good?

Nearest I've ever come to having to deal with this kind of situation is fifteen years as a soccer referee. Mind you, I remember a fellow ref pointing out to me that one person in twenty is a psychopath so on a field of 22 players....

Then again very few footballers carry guns.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1294323650254868481

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Fishing said:

Malmesbury said:

Reagan wasn't just an actor. He had a complex and surprisingly intellectual background - he wrote many of his own speeches over the years. The acting was just his career before he moved into politics full time. Where he became a popular and successful Governor of California for 2 terms.

As opposed to Trump. Who after a lifetime of staggering from one shitty business deal to another....

Reagan's Evil Empire speech, combined with Soviet paranoia, damn nearly caused World War 3.

Telling the truth does that sometimes.

Thank God for Gordievsky.

"Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Reagan in Berlin, 1987.

Your point being?

Stocky said:

Ydoethur - what constitutes a valid mock.

Have you seen this?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/appeals-based-on-mock-exams

The last criterion was the one I was worried about as we have not retained the scripts. Just wanting the marks and not the papers makes it a lot more likely that schools will be able to do this.

The one part that may be a problem is the way the marks are translated into grades: I would think many schools to make an adjustment to allow for the expected improvement between the mock and the real thing.

One thing I’m hoping this will do is make it much easier to convince future Y11 students to take their mocks seriously...

Scott_xP said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

No, is it good?

Nearest I've ever come to having to deal with this kind of situation is fifteen years as a soccer referee. Mind you, I remember a fellow ref pointing out to me that one person in twenty is a psychopath so on a field of 22 players....

Then again very few footballers carry guns.

Yes.

It's about all kinds of interactions between people, but it starts and ends with a cop pulling a woman over on a routine stop, and her committing suicide the next day

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/business/malcolm-gladwell-talking-to-strangers.html

Is it UK or US-based? I have to say in my engagements with the police in this country they have been almost invariably polite and supportive.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Is it UK or US-based? I have to say in my engagements with the police in this country they have been almost invariably polite and supportive.

US

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Utter madness and eco vandalism from the EU

https://twitter.com/GaiaFawkes/status/1294580050281533440?s=19

Not the EU but administrative incompetence within Ireland.

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1294635081752031232

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Y2UJUhL74

Don't know if anyone has seen this but the whole video of the George Floyd death has been released. I believe this isn't the whole video but it's still useful context nonetheless.

Pretty certain I saw it a week or more ago.

Did you have any thoughts on it?

Ptretty shocking and disgusted by the cops' behavior.

The initial approach is hamfisted to put it mildly. If you sitting in a car doing nothing obviously wrong and someone approaches from your blind side and taps sharply on the window you're going to be startled, and that's in this country where it is not common for people to carry guns.

It isn't obvious why the door has to be opened and the suspect told to show his hands. No obvious offence has been committed. The suspect could just as easily have been asked to lower the window to allow questioning.

Why was a gun pulled? The suspect was not being violent or showing indications of becomins so. (The suspect was not in fairness helping himself by his hysterical and erratic behaviour, and was contributing to an escalation.)

Th relevant bigger picture here is of undertrained and overarmed officers being sent out to enforce order in a population where guns are far too widely available and cooperation with the police far too problematic. If you send jerks into an explosive situation, this is what you get.

You have to say though , given he had been through it all before , knew cops are scared and shoot first , why did he not just stick his hands on the steering wheel and then all of the struggling and not getting in the cop car , does not excuse the cops over the top behaviour but he would be alive today if he had just got in the police car.

Peter_the_Punter said:

justin124 said:

I know a guy who works as an astrologer. He has taken account of Trump & Biden's time, date and place of birth details. He gives Trump a 51% chance of winning on November 3rd.

How do you 'work' as an astrologer? Who pays someone for that - the Met Office?

My uncle did it for many years - lots of clients paid him for his services - though he's now not well enough to pursue it. FWIW he's perfectly sincere - a very religious man, he believes that the position of the stars indicate the wishes of the Almighty.

Stocky said:

MaxPB said:

Life tip - don't go to Sicily in the middle of a heatwave. It's 34 degrees today and that's the coolest it has been so far.

You lucky thing - I envy you. Chucking it down here.

And I envy you. 4th consecutive day of fog. With this virus about its like living in a Stephen King novel.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Y2UJUhL74

Don't know if anyone has seen this but the whole video of the George Floyd death has been released. I believe this isn't the whole video but it's still useful context nonetheless.

The overwhelming impression is of stunning incompetence.

Many US police forces have an IQ (or equivalent) test as part of the application. If you get too high a score you are rejected.

I wish this were a joke, but it is not.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CoK4MEI43vI

Lol! Illuminating. I remember being told that in France you were unlikely to be allowed into the police if you were too smart. Didn't know it applied in the US too.

As a student working on a gas station in San Francisco many years ago I remember becoming acquainted with a number of the local cops. They were far from dumb, but they did tend to regard themselves as 'hired guns'.

That same summer I drove across the States and was stopped one night by a couple of cops in a small town in Nebraska. I've met more intelligent cows.

More recently I've been pulled over in NY State a couple of times. The word arrogance springs to mind rather than stupidity. Guess i t depends where you are.

I think another problem is the huge number of different police forces. In the UK we have 48; in the US (with admittedly five times the population) they have just under 18 thousand. As there are about 800,000 police officers, this means the mean police force has fewer than 50 officers.

Didn't know that. Again it helps to understand how dreadful incidents like the Floyd killing happen.

malcolmg said:

Stocky said:

MaxPB said:

Life tip - don't go to Sicily in the middle of a heatwave. It's 34 degrees today and that's the coolest it has been so far.

You lucky thing - I envy you. Chucking it down here.

blue sky and sunshine in Ayrshire, hard to keep the beer cold when opened.

I preferred you when you were being mean

another_richard said:

Trump was the perfect candidate for the twatter era. Or turn that around and say the twatter era was perfect for Trump.

Another aspect was that it was the failure of the GOP establishment which led to Trump.

There was a decade ago on PB an American GOP supporter called StarsAndStripes.

He was scornful of the idea that Trump could get nominated by the GOP and that if he did would suffer enormous defeat.

Yes, but there are other factors that make up Trump. He is best seen as the logical culmination of several trends that go back decades in western democracies, and America in particular:

- the devaluation of experience at the top of government, i.e. denying that you benefit from expertise
- identity politics and its associated fostering of grievance
- the dumbing down of debate through the shortening of attention spans through first TV, then social media
- the toleration of rampant back-scratching and corruption
- the relentless focus on personalities and not issues.

If you take those five trends together, you have President Trump.

And, for the record, we're on the same road on many of those trends over here. Hence that moron Corbyn.