politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive

My Euro Elections guesstimate:

Lab 29% UKIP 29% Con 24% Green 6% Lib-Dem 5%

My Local Elections guesstimate:

Lab 34% Con 29% UKIP 16% Lib-Dem 11%

Kelly Holmes , Lennox Lewis , Linford Christie and Fatima Whitbread were the last 4 'black' winners with Daley Thompson being the 5th last.
Ratio not that bad compared to population (or even sporting population)imo

''In Wales it'll be a straight contest between Labour and UKIP for first place. Labour ought to win easily but I just wonder if something unexpected might happen. ''

Been wondering the same for months. Is it possible that dyed in the wool Welsh labourites might rebel against third world public services at first world prices?

Maybe not. But they might not turn out for ed.

Socrates said:

The graph on page 6 of that link says it all. The fourth year into this government and even non-EU net immigration is flatlining at 150,000 a year, about two and a half times as many as we were getting before New Labour got into office in 1997.

New Labour fundamentally transformed our society to be increasingly foreign, immigrant society. Of course they did: people of British grandparents don't like voting for them all that much. And the Tories are too unwilling or incompetent to reverse it. Why not bring back the primary purpose rule? Why not bring in a two year relationship requirement for married couples, as exists for unmarried couples? Why not raise the spouse visa age to 21? Why not increase the income requirement to provide for a dependent to £30,000?

Why not vote for the Conservatives, so that they have a majority in Parliament and consequently have a hope in hell of implementing any of these measures?

AveryLP said:

Poor another_richard. Whatever will he post about when George finally eliminates the deficit? It is certainly getting nearer every month as the good news in this bulletin shows.

So government borrowing in April being the highest ever is reducing the deficit in Comical Avery world:.

2008 £1.9bn
2009 £7.0bn
2010 £7.3bn
2011 £9.9bn
2012 £8.3bn
2013 £9.5bn
2014 £11.5bn

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=L65P&dataset=pusf&table-id=PSF1

The inevitable consequence of increasingly basing the economy on low skilled consumer services with taxpayer subsidised housing and taxpayer subsidised wages.

Its not good for productivity and its not good for tax revenues.

Stuart_Dickson said:

AndyJS said:

In Wales it'll be a straight contest between Labour and UKIP for first place. Labour ought to win easily but I just wonder if something unexpected might happen.

LAB were odds-on FAV by miles in Hills' Wales market (now closed).

I don't think anyone expected the Tories to come first in Wales in 2009.

Stuart_Dickson said:

Gin,

You can get 11/10 (Ladbrokes) that the GREENS will get a higher GB vote share than the LIB DEMS. More than double your cash in less than half a day. How can you say no?

Will be a close run thing but cannot see how 11/10 makes it a value bet

Back from the polling station. Distinct smell of grilled kippers and colostomy bags.

I fear the worst.

Stuart_Dickson said:

Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)

2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland

Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1

UKIP to win a seat 11/8
UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15

Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10

SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1

I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.

yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well

Thanks Socrates - you're not boring. In the interest of full disclosure turnout will be -2 in Scotland.

antifrank said:

My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.

Can I ask whereabouts it was (without being too specific)?

antifrank said:

My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.

Anecdotally - Could be good for the Kippers ?

How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.

UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.

Stuart_Dickson said:

state_go_away said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)

2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland

Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1

UKIP to win a seat 11/8
UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15

Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10

SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1

I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.

yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well

Indeed. An important detail which has not been much commented on. It might just make the 1 to 2% difference needed to get a UKIP MEP in Scotland.

Are there really many unionist separatists in the Bonnie land?

No sign of any activity at the polling station at St Brides just round the corner from my office; but it is central London so probably not many resident voters here during the day.

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.

Anecdotally - Could be good for the Kippers ?

How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.

UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.

UKIP didn't even have any candidates in the locals around me, so I doubt it's a purple hotbed. If I were guessing, I'd be guessing these were Labour voters.

I cast a split local/Euro ticket in the colours of my preferred football team.

Accrington Stanley?

Socrates said:

dyedwoolie said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.

Anecdotally - Could be good for the Kippers ?

How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.

UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.

UKIP will walk this. You could feel the resentment and werthers at the village hall

I doubt it after the media slamming they've taken all week and the stitch-up from the electoral commission.

Well Labour definitely won't beat them, of that I am certain.

And the establishment wonders why people vote UKIP.

If Farage wins big today he will become very powerful, even if he has no Westminster MPs.

For many MPs in 2015, Farage will become the difference between them staying an MP or getting kicked out. If he likes you he endorses you and calls off the attack dogs by not running a candidate -and you get elected.

If he doesn't, he runs a candidate, sends in the blue rinse brigade and anything could happen in your beloved constituency, no matter how comfortable your majority.

He is already talking about running joint Con/UKIP candidates in 2015, and LabUKIP too. Sitting MPs will have to answer to him as much, if not much more, than their own party leader.

taffys said:

And the establishment wonders why people vote UKIP.

If Farage wins big today he will become very powerful, even if he has no Westminster MPs.

For many MPs in 2015, Farage will become the difference between them staying an MP or getting kicked out. If he likes you he endorses you and calls off the attack dogs by not running a candidate -and you get elected.

If he doesn't, he runs a candidate, sends in the blue rinse brigade and anything could happen in your beloved constituency, no matter how comfortable your majority.

He is already talking about running joint Con/UKIP candidates in 2015, and LabUKIP too. Sitting MPs will have to answer to him as much, if not much more, than their own party leader.

Yes, when he has the rods of the five wizards and has purchased a pair of boots three sizes too large.

Stuart_Dickson said:

dyedwoolie said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

state_go_away said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)

2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland

Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1

UKIP to win a seat 11/8
UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15

Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10

SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1

I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.

yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well

Indeed. An important detail which has not been much commented on. It might just make the 1 to 2% difference needed to get a UKIP MEP in Scotland.

Are there really many unionist separatists in the Bonnie land?

No, but they might need as little as 11% to get an MEP. (Personally I suspect that they will need more that 12%, but it is still a very small number of actual voters because turnout will be pathetic, as usual.)

I reckon they'll struggle to break 8% up there

So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband.
IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg
IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.

Curious...

antifrank said:

I cast a split local/Euro ticket in the colours of my preferred football team.

I didn't have you down as a Palace fan, antifrank.

Grandiose said:

http://order-order.com/2014/05/22/electoral-commission-investigating-folded-ukip-ballot-papers/

I've never been so relevant!

The Electoral Commission guidance to polling station staff is clear:

“Fold the ballot paper, then hand it to the voter unfolded. Ask them to re-fold it once they’ve marked their ballot paper in the polling booth.

Went to vote at lunchtime and my ballot paper was not folded at all. Saw 2 coppers walking up as I was leaving. Going to vote or investigating the shocking lack of folds?

stodge said:

So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband.
IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg
IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.

Curious...

I'd expect Ed to beat Dave in a mid term, not by more than 4%
UKIP are a phenomena that will not last, best to just take this one on the chin.

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.

Anecdotally - Could be good for the Kippers ?

How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.

UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.

UKIP didn't even have any candidates in the locals around me, so I doubt it's a purple hotbed. If I were guessing, I'd be guessing these were Labour voters.

I cast a split local/Euro ticket in the colours of my preferred football team.

Norwich City?

Just think: If the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 had specified, as some suggested it should, 4-year terms rather than 5-year terms, we'd probably be holding a GE today.

Well the rain has stopped in the Land of the Prince Bishops. Perhaps we'll get a late surge to the polling stations - especially those located next door to a betting shop or branch of Greggs.

OblitusSumMe said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

GIN1138 said:

My Euro Elections guesstimate:

Lab 29% UKIP 29% Con 24% Green 6% Lib-Dem 5%

My Local Elections guesstimate:

Lab 34% Con 29% UKIP 16% Lib-Dem 11%

LIB DEM 5% !!

You're avin a larf.

(I hope you are right, but I seriously doubt that they can go THAT low.)

The Liberals only took 2.5% of the vote in the 1951GE, and they didn't have to deal with the unpopularity of being in government at the time.

That said, the average vote for the Lib Dems in the Parliamentary by-elections since 2010 has been 10%, and they've saved their deposit in just over half the seats they contested.

I think they'll get at least 6% of the vote.

Opinium had the Lib Dems on five and six per cent in their last two polls, significantly lower than other pollsters.

FWIW, I don't think it'll be that bad either but I do think 7-8% will be about the mark and that may only be good enough for one seat.

The Liberal vote in the 50s understated their true support because they stood in so few seats (only 109 out of 625 in 1951). While we might guess that these were their stronger constituencies, so we can't just multiply up, even excluding N Ireland, it probably wouldn't be far out to suggest they'd have polled at least high single figures had they stood everywhere.

@dyed:

I think Labour will utterly fail to get their vote out, low-20s. Cons will do slightly better, low to mid-20s, and UKIP will be 5% clear at around or just below 30%.

AIFE will pick up 2.5% or so, making the anti-EU vote a very strong one indeed.

The LibDems and the Greens will both be around the 7.5% mark, and I suspect (although I could be wrong) that the Libs will just edge it.

This is UKIP's election. Nigel Farage will be rightfully basking in triumph on Monday.

However, the extent to which this will carry over to 2015 remains an unknown. My guess is that more people lent their vote to Farage to register a protest than the Kippers would like to admit. And I think the better UKIP does this year, the more likely there is to be anti-UKIP tactical voting in 2015. The Conservative voters in Eastleigh may break far more strongly for the Libs than for UKIP next time around.

I hope UKIP get represented in 2015, but I'm not hopeful. I suspect Farage may come close, but we shall see... The best chance for the purples is if there is a seat that splits three or four way, allowing them to get in with 30-35% of the vote.

Tissue_Price said:

Quite, and I'd be collecting on some very nice bets at 20/25-1 (placed during the coalition negotiations when the rumours of a fixed term first emerged). I did get some on 2015+ but 2014 would have been much nicer for my wallet.

I covered both very nicely (including a spread bet with SPIN). That was one of the easier political bets of the current parliament.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Stodge, UKIP and Labour are expected to be 1-2, the Conservatives 3rd. It's priced in.

So you are quite relaxed about the Conservatives finishing third in a national election for the first time because, somehow, in some way, the UKIP flock will return to the Tory pen next May.

Whereas if the LDs finish fith, it's panic-driven enormo-haddock meltdown time.

Ok....

NEW THREAD

rcs1000 said:

However, the extent to which this will carry over to 2015 remains an unknown. My guess is that more people lent their vote to Farage to register a protest than the Kippers would like to admit. And I think the better UKIP does this year, the more likely there is to be anti-UKIP tactical voting in 2015. The Conservative voters in Eastleigh may break far more strongly for the Libs than for UKIP next time around.

I hope UKIP get represented in 2015, but I'm not hopeful. I suspect Farage may come close, but we shall see... The best chance for the purples is if there is a seat that splits three or four way, allowing them to get in with 30-35% of the vote.

One huge difference is that, in 2015, it will be unambiguously clear that a vote for UKIP is a vote against an EU referendum. Those who actually want us to leave the EU are being quite rational if they vote UKIP in the Euros today, but it will be an irrational thing to do in 2015.

Of course voters aren't always rational, but some are!

Stuart_Dickson said:

Tykejohnno said:

stodge said:

So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband.
IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg
IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.

Curious...

If the tories finish a really poor third,it is crisis time for Dave.

Nope. Even the Conservative & Unionist Party are not daft enough to openly revolt against their prime minister just 4 months before the referendum on the dissolution of the Union.

I didn't mention open revolt.

stodge said:

So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband.
IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg
IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.

Curious...

Sort of, though the devil is in the detail.

If Labour finished third, it is indeed a crisis for Ed. Labour should not be losing to UKIP and the Tories while they are the only major Westminster party in opposition, in an election which people routinely use to protest in and to send a message to the government.

If the Lib Dems finish fifth, behind the Greens, it's maybe not quite a crisis but it's very much a cause for concern. While it might not of itself be fatal to too many of their MPs, it would indicate that across great swathes of the country they're quite simply invisible and irrelevant.

Third for the Tories is to be expected, for much the reasons as per Labour above. The questions that matter are how far behind Labour and how big (or small) a share of the vote? Close to Labour would be ok; well back would be a problem. Likewise, mid-twenties wouldn't be a problem; teens most certainly would.