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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive is how many Ukip supporters mistakenly vote for “An Independence from Europe”
With YouGov’s final EP2014 poll showing Ukip with a lead of just 1% it is possible that what stops Farage’s party from winning on votes will be the spoiler party “An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now”.
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Where's the traditional PB picture of Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall-wotsit on a bike outside a polling station!
Note: SLAB-backers can still get a very nice 5/1 at William Hill. Best SNP price is now Ladbrokes 1/3. BetVictor have now closed their Scottish Euro markets.
How many PBers have taken longer options on Lab or Con today?
Ladbrokes - 2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8
UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
Ladbrokes - GB Vote Share Match Bet
Lib Dems 4/6
Greens 11/10
Just about to put on the suit and tie for work then off to vote in the warm spring breeze.
With a nod to my historic Jacobite and anti-Whig tendencies she will cast her ballot for the LibDems leaving me free to vote for that nice Mr Cameron's jolly crew of Euro pragmatists.
Meanwhile .... Apparently a minor infestation of Ukippers on West Common has had the good burghers of Harpenden in a tizzy. It appears a new resident of the fruitcake tendency placed a "I'm Voting For Ukip" poster in a front window.
Little matter the offending article could barely be seen some distance down the drive from the road but a committee of the concerned was soon on the case. It appears the recalcitrant householder was advised that the prospect of steel bands, shooting gay targets and bongo bongo land themed bbq's was not to be encouraged and that the vulgar practice of displaying political posters on your estate would likely result in membership of the Ladies Circle being rescinded.
The offending article now being removed to the recycling box, normality has returned to Harpenden.
Given the latest ICM has the Lib Dems on 13% their likely vote share would be 7.6%.Thus anything above this is an improvement!
In Europe they pronounce the name Fa-rage(as in forage)
If opponents of Mr Farage want to cut him down to size I suggest they use the European version.
The threat of expulsion from the West Common Gentlewoman's Guild is complete social death. Offenders might just as well move to a Luton garret and slit their wrists.
The 2010 splits are interesting - as are the regional splits (usual caveats);But will be interesting to see how close these are to actual.
2010:
Cons: Cons49; LAB:3; LD:2; UKIP:39; Green:3
LAB: Cons:4; LAB:65; LD:2; UKIP:15; Green:8
LDem: Cons:8: LAB:18; LD:31; UKIP:18; Green:19
Regions:
London: Cons: 23; LAB: 27; LD:13; UKIP:20; Green: 12
R of South: Cons: 26; LAB:19; LD:10; UKIP:33; Green:9
Mids/Wales: Cons:22; LAB:26; LD:6; UKIP:30; Green:9; PC:3
NORTH: Cons: 18; LAB:33; LD:7; UKIP:27; Green:10
Scotland: Cons: 15; LAB:28; LD:6; UKIP:13; Green:11; SNP:26
Be warned that I parked at the station there last week and was impressed with the new posh painted parking bays, there hoever seems to be 10% less parking spaces as a result, after 10 mins faffing and my train due, thinking outside the box I parked outside one and promptly received a parking ticket for £50 on my return.
Time was you could park anywhere sensible there as it was always full even before the new boxes, not any more it seems - as a v occasional Harpenden commuter that was an expensive lesson learned.... I trust my little expense will contribute to the general well-being of the area!
I am slightly tempted by the 1/4 for the tories in Scotland which looks pretty nailed on to me. Whether I can be bothered to find a Ladbrokes shop (they still think my computer is in the US) is another test for the ennui of the day.
However I have to advise you that the Harpenden (Anti) Parking Consortium .... aka the Council .... have also extended control zones to close to the new Tesco Metro store on the Luton Road !!
And how arrogant it is that a silly article is spoiled at the end by the final paragraph which claims that "Unlike the Literal Democrat AIFE is a legitimate party". By what criteria of arrogant assumption does anybody dare to presume that the Literal Democrat candidate in 1994 was not "legitimate"? He was duly nominated to stand as a candidate in the usual way, according to the law as it was at the time, just as all other candidates were. He then campaigned in whatever way he considered fit and proper, within the law, as other candidates did.
Just the odd spot of rain here in Nottingham at the moment, overcast but not dark.
It does give some insight into how Farage and his allies deal with internal debate.
Anyhow, I'm off to Brussels this morning, and have failed to vote...
Having done all the above I shall be tearing my brillo out waiting for the results; and what a bloody long wait that will be.
Betfair's prices as the polling stations open:
Most Votes
UKIP 1.4
Lab 3
Con 25
Grn 26
LD 1000
Most Seats (87,638 pounds Matched)
UKIP 1.53
Lab 2.68
Grn 3
LD 4
Con 23
People who did vote: 229,000
People who voted Literal Democrat: 10,000
People who said afterwards that they had been confused and had voted for the wrong party: 4,000
i.e. less than 1%
Unlike the article, I am not counting 10,000 out of 229,000 as 5%, nor am I assuming that all 10,000 were confused
Con 2/5 (Hills)
UKIP 4/1 (various)
Lab 8/1 (Betfair)
Grn 200/1
Baggaley 200/1
Hayes 200/1
LD 250/1
Haven't voted yet. It's rained quite a lot, and was still going when I took a very reluctant hound out. Early though, so if it clears up one would expect turnout to be more or less unaffected.
Edited extra bit: also worth mentioning it's Monaco first practice in just under half an hour.
Society crumbling around us I tell you.
Ladbrokes - Euros - GB Vote Share - line bets (above/below both 5/6)
UKIP 28%
Lab 26%
Con 23%
LD 8%
Grn 7%
An Independence From Europe 1.5%
Interesting use of numbers. I'd use 4,000 out of 229,000.
A grey Merseyside day here but I'll drudge through the rain and attempt to decipher the Rosetta ballot paper. For the first time in 40 odd years, I'll not be voting Labour or LD. I've finally come of age?
This should give a better summary than the BBC results (although slower), as it will specifically say how many seats each party gained of the other parties (see the change matrix), so we know exactly where the kipper support is coming from! ;-)
I'm not guaranteeing this will be the fastest way to see results, but I will try to keep it reasonably up to date for you all. Unfortunately, I won't be able to update this beyond 3pm Friday until about 8/9pm Friday (depending on wifi at the airport).
I've probably bitten off more than I can chew with this, but I thought I'd give it a shot, and given I spent the time getting all the info together, I may as well make it public:
http://goo.gl/4AJwpD
Oh and if I get super busy tomorrow with other commitments, I may just have to stop updating entirely! You have been warned.
Are we saying that the polls are a bit off and Dave will outpoll Microband today? Wow.
If the result is UKIP/Con/Lab/Green/LD in that order it would be very very funny!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10847979/10000-European-Union-officials-better-paid-than-David-Cameron.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2635680/Top-BBC-editor-brands-Ukip-racist-sexist-Twitter-News-channel-boss-accused-bias-hours-election.html
Given here experience and roles in editing politics stories, she was sailing close to the wind with that tweet. Perhaps she should cover parish council elections in future.
Would give the Romanians a chance.
It wouldn't change a single vote in this country, even if our press could be bothered to report it.
As an aside, there is only one level of pay above that of AD11, and 11 below, so I think "mid-ranking" might be a little bit of a stretch.
"Monaco, it's always a highlight for me. Yes, it doesn't provide much racing, ..."
Really? A highlight of the racing calendar is a circuit even a cheerleader confesses doesn't provide much racing?
That said, I wouldn't quibble if the PM got £300K.
Meanwhile, Nottingham has turned sunny!
Two blokes wearing blue rosettes are currently standing on Fulham Palace Road, opposite the Tube Station, giving out flyers. They're going for it, and I think the Tories may just cling on.
AN Other: Sadly I don't have a green party option where I'm registered to vote, so I will be voting lib dem instead
I've given them both a pointer !
And as, some will recall, in 1905, when the UK voted over several days and the Liberals were sweeping the country, posters were put up in late-voting areas “the Liberal Tide is Flowing”.
On the lines of "LibDems Winning here!
No idea if it worked or not!
...
That's a bit rubbish. I thought most would be. Slackers.
If you want to vote for BNP light then certainly AIFE is the where you should place your mark.
I'm not sure it would. I had thought the standard polling wording might do it (i.e. "if there was an election tomorrow") but either way could be interpreted by a court as being designed to identify how voters voted, irrespective of whether they were asked that or not.
Sounds like the Assad side is the one referred to:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27514897
Syria's been out of the news for a while, but what has been written about does all seem to be going Assad's way. Of course, even if he 'wins', he'll have a country that looks similar to old footage of Germany at the end of the war.
On the downside, by bets on Uruguay winning the world cup, and him being golden boot winner and scoring more than England bets just became losers.
Luis Suárez's World Cup for Uruguay in doubt after knee injury
Liverpool striker damaged meniscus in training
Surgery could rule him out for up to six weeks
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/22/luis-suarez-world-cup-uruguay-injury
26% of voters more inclined, 16% less inclined to vote Tory today because of Cam's commitment to hold EU referendum
Sadly, my mother-in-law died last night, so I won't be paying as much attention to the results as usual.
No offence to Eck's half hour - but if anyone wants to pass/fail the cricket test we've got the Indian league on 11am - 8pm ITV4
However what would be the situation if anew leader were elected.?Would Nick Clegg have to step down as Deputy PM?.Who would decide if a new leader of the Lib dems could be appointed as Deputy PM?
Mr. Octopus, best of luck with your thesis.