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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Pulpstar said:

    On the Ed Milliband bacon sarnie... am I the only one who thinks that the Labour Party having a stunt where its leader, a (presumably non-observant) Jew, eats a bacon sandwich in public, is a tad disturbing? Just seems a bit odd to me.

    Was it a stunt, maybe he just wanted a bacon sandwich ! He's Jewish by ethnicity but his 'religion' is atheist.
    I assume anything done by a party leader the day before an election is pre-planned. And he obviously doesn't do it very often as he made a bit of a mess of it. He also doesn't seem to be a man of the people who likes a quick bacon butty when peckish, although my apologies to his team if that is, in fact, the case.

    What is "pre-planned", as opposed to just "planned"? Are we saying the stunt came before the planning? If so, wouldn't it just be "unplanned"?

    I have many reasons to dislike Gordon Brown but his prefixing of unnecessary 'pre's is right up there. Pre-prepared is probably the worst, given that it already has one pre in there to start with.
    To my immense and eternal shame, a few weeks ago, I used "pre-prepared" in an email
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Wall Street Journal ‏@WSJ 6m

    Breaking: North and South Korea exchange fire near a western sea border, Seoul says. http://wsj.com
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Price, also worth mentioning that none of those 'issues' affected Button and he still lost out to Giggs, utterly inexplicably, in 2009.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Turnout anecdote: Have returned (briefly) from 4 hours telling at two different polling stations in deepest Surrey. Certainly looks at this stage that turnout is up on both 2013 and 2012, perhaps by 3-4%. Long way to go though.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [Mr. Herdson, you're spot on. Pre-prepared is a vile delinquent of a tautology.]

    Prepare to burn your dictionaries. Literally*

    *new meaning
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014

    Betting advice: Steven Gerrard e/w @ 16/1 for SPOTY. It'll be Giggs all over again, with the chance of some World Cup heroics (or, failing that, defeat with honour) adding to his lustre.

    Hamilton looks terrible value, given that (a) the sport is only half on BBC, (b) he doesn't pay his taxes and (c) he's black (unfortunately this is still very much an issue with phone votes).

    Andy Murray at 16/1(he could win a couple of majors)

    PS - Thanks for your Switzerland tip the other day, I'll be doing a world cup thread in a week or so, and you will be appropriately credited for that tip.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Andy Murray at 16/1(he could win a couple of majors)

    Back him to win the majors instead, much better value.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Andy Murray at 16/1(he could win a couple of majors)

    Back him to win the majors instead, much better value.

    Okies, ta,

    PS - Thanks for your Switzerland tip the other day, I'll be doing a world cup thread in a week or so, and you will be appropriately credited for that tip.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    I've just remembered, it is likely that Sion Simon will become an MEP in the West Midlands.

    The European Parliament is lucky to have a such a talented and perceptive person.

    Here is an example of his scholarly work, from 2007.

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

    Well he wasn't far wrong. He just never expected that the Great Gordon would bottle it; and by doing so showed the world that he was a little worm instead. Fancy being frightened of an Osborne statement on inheritance tax.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    With my old council enforcement hat on,local authorities could enforce a Fixed Penalty Notice with a £90 on the grounds of anti-social behaviour.There are very good reasons peoples' vote is between them and the ballot box.It's a breach of secrecy that requires strict enforcement.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10847113/Voters-warned-they-could-be-jailed-for-taking-selfies-in-polling-stations.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Military coup in Thailand.

    Looks quite neat actually. The General i/c got all the factions together yesterday, and found an item of agreement. Sent them off to come back today to see if they could find any more. Looks as though when they came back they couldn’t and he lost patience.
    To be fair the guy who’s been causing the trouble, one Suthep, seems to change his mind on his demands every so often!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    Military takeovers, civil wars, wars, terrorist attacks. And we get upset because there are too many folds on our ballot papers!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466

    @Financier

    "Anyone who inadvertently reveals how someone else votes in Thursday's local and European elections could face a £5,000 fine or six months in prison."

    I voted Labour in the Councils and LD in the Euros, Financier, but don't tell anybody.

    ...

    From that quote, it's fine for him to tell someone, as long as he does it intentionally.
    Ah.....that makes sense. :-)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    Mr. Herdson, you're spot on. Pre-prepared is a vile delinquent of a tautology.

    Apologies, it's what happens when you are struggling with Vanilla on a mobile phone. The tautology is bad enough, to use a Brownism (as David Herdson has pointed out), inexcusable.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    An Independence From Europe is not at the top of the ballot paper in London. "4 Freedoms Party" is:

    http://www.rbkc.gov.uk/councilanddemocracy/localdemocracyandelections.aspx
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Price, also worth mentioning that none of those 'issues' affected Button and he still lost out to Giggs, utterly inexplicably, in 2009.

    The hang about like a bad smell for 20 years in kickball vote is a strong one. Gerrard should get the 'only turns it on for his club' award
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Surely the biggest political event in the world recently, which has barely had a peep of a mention here is the Russia-China gas deal, and the closer economic & almost by neccessity political cooperation it implies
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    rogerh said:

    Final prediction on Council changes of control (Possibles rather than probable have question mark)

    Lab Gains

    Bristol from NOC
    Swindon from CON
    Croydon from CON
    Harrow from NOC
    Merton from NOC
    Redbridge from NOC
    Bradford from NOC
    Calderdale from NOC
    Kirklees from NOC
    Stockport from NOC(?)
    Walsall from NOC
    Amber Valley from CON
    Cambridge from LD
    Crawley from CON
    Tamworth frpm CON
    Waveney from NOC
    W Lancs from CON

    Con Gains

    Kingston from LD
    Sutton from LD(?)
    Winchester from NOC(?)
    St Albans from NOC(?)
    Purbeck from NOC(?)

    Con losses to NOC

    Basildon(?)
    Basingstoke(?)

    Lib Dem losses to NOC

    Portsmouth
    Three Rivers.


    Calderdale - Labour need 5 gains for control , the best they can expect is 4 and probably only 3 so will stay NOC
    Kirklees - Labour need 3 gains for control , the best they can do is 2 so will be NOC decided on Mayor's casting vote .

    Stockport - there is no chance whatsoever of Labour taking overall control , they would need 11 gains . They need 4 gains from LD to become largest party . Based on 2012 they will make 2 from LD and 1 from Conservative
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Neil Lennon no longer manager of Celtic
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    NEIL Lennon has announced he is stepping down from his role as manager of Celtic.

    The 42-year-old has been linked with the vacant managerial post at Norwich City, who were relegated from the English Premier League, and West Bromwich Albion, who recently parted company with manager Pepe Mel.

    http://www.scotsman.com/sport/football/latest/neil-lennon-to-step-down-as-celtic-manager-1-3419547
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    You can get 33/1 on Neil Lennon as next West Brom boss with Betfair Sportsbook

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/west-brom/next-permanent-manager
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    AveryLP said:

    Was there a YouGov Westminster VI yesterday? There's nothing on their website and it's usually posted at 6am.

    Nick P posted the 2015 VI igures last night. IIRC Lab on 36% with a 3 point lead over Cons.
    I'm limited to my phone at the moment, so I keep missing stuff, decided not to bring the netbook as it eats into your 10kg hand luggage allowance. Must get a tablet. Have been trying Dolphin, it seems to be better than Chrome for some websites, and they have seemed to step back from making it really clunky and over-featured. But Chrome syncs with my home PC which is nice.

    FYI, Dolphin sell unanonymised user data to Russian companies linked with gangsters. If you don't like Chrome try Boat Browser or, if you are lucky enough, the stock Android Browser which will be called "Internet" or "Browser".
    The stock browser is a sort of stripped-down Chrome which doesn't sync with my home favourites. But will play Flash. Both tend to reload pages if you switch tabs or between apps which is a pain in the a*se if you have a poor connection. Sometimes I would like to be able to cache a thread and read it on the train for example. Thanks for the heads up on Dolphin, I will try Boat.

    Sadly the page reloading issue is not browser related but phone related. Essentially when you use your phone it stores everything in its RAM, but if you multi task then your current usage will push out old tasks from the memory cache. Essentially your phone has poor RAM management or not enough RAM. I would personally recommend the Xperia Z2 if you never want any page reloads as it gas a crapload of RAM and excellent memory management software.
    Tx. The Z2 is a bit big and square for my little hands, I'm thinking about an HTC One M8 when my contract expires in July.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Mr. Herdson, you're spot on. Pre-prepared is a vile delinquent of a tautology.

    Apologies, it's what happens when you are struggling with Vanilla on a mobile phone. The tautology is bad enough, to use a Brownism (as David Herdson has pointed out), inexcusable.

    This might be the most controversial thing I've ever written on pb, but I don't mind "pre-prepared". To be tautologous it would have to mean the same as "prepared", but to my mind it doesn't - pre-prepared means well in advance (and "completed" in some sense), prepared means ready for.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2014

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    When I voted today I glanced down the (very long) ballot paper and couldn't see UKIP. I knew they must be at the bottom, and then I noticed that the very bottom was folded backwards (all the other folds were forwards). Combined with an Independence from Europe being at the top, that could hurt people. The electoral commission just seem out to get UKIP to be honest. I'm not surprised - they're probably all political nerds that support the historic parties.

    Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.
    I agree but I'm more referring to the acceptance of a party with "UK Independence Now" as the tag line.

    I also don't see why they don't randomise the order on the ballot. People voting for higher up parties has been clearly established as a psychological effect. They did this in my old student union elections.
    Absolutely right Socrates. Putting candidates or parties in alphabetical order is lazy and thoughtless!
    I will pile in some support for Socrates on this too. The Remember Lee Rigby thing was in poor taste, and I am surprised there were no restrictions on the appropriation of his name (if there were not, then I suppose it's somewhat antidemocratic to allow the EC to regulate it purely on the grounds of it being distasteful). But "UK Independence Now" is getting very close to Literal Democratic territory.

    And picking and running an algorithm for randomisation would hardly add to the complexity or expense of the process. Elections are always going to contain a random element - from the weather causing differential turnout to the possibility of a slight but critical miscount. If we are going to have an element of randomness in our electoral process, it's just as well for it to be an enfairening one. (Mind you, I'd rather have re-runs than drawing of lots as a tie-breaker...)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    You can get 33/1 on Neil Lennon as next West Brom boss with Betfair Sportsbook

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/west-brom/next-permanent-manager

    Neil Lennon would be a great pick for Norwich, if Gary Hooper can be made to perform thereby.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    What was it that Dave said about UKIP?

    A UKIP candidate is today being investigated by party chiefs over a string of comments left on Facebook.

    Liz Mahon, who is standing for the party in Garrison ward, Preston Council, made posts hailing Enoch Powell, criticising Nigel Farage for paying tribute to Nelson Mandela and calling halal food ‘sick evil satanic’.

    The politician made a number of her posts on the Facebook pages of the far-right English Defence League and Britain First parties.

    http://www.lep.co.uk/news/ukip-probes-preston-candidate-s-comments-on-facebook-1-6630946

    Candidates for all the major parties behave exactly like that all the time; it's just that the media don't report it.

    I know, but it's fun to wind up the Kippers.
    I was joking! (Or do they really?)

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Grandiose, would you like to be fired into the heart of the sun from a giant cannon, or melted with the solar death ray?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2014

    Neil Lennon no longer manager of Celtic

    Scotland's gain may become England's loss - a huge boost to community relations in Scotland. Despicable man and a crap manager.


    Norwich fans look away now

    http://ifyouknowtheirhistory.blogspot.com/2011/01/neil-lennon-sent-women-threats.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Grandiose said:

    You can get 33/1 on Neil Lennon as next West Brom boss with Betfair Sportsbook

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/west-brom/next-permanent-manager

    Neil Lennon would be a great pick for Norwich, if Gary Hooper can be made to perform thereby.
    I think Malky Mackay would be a better fit for Norwich.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Pulpstar said:


    I doubt that Michelle Obama's displeasure was caused by lack of reverence.

    Why not? I wouldn't be impressed if my spouse or another family member was taking selfies at a funeral. It was poor form by all three heads of government, and I think sexism is the main reason people are mocking Michelle Obama for it.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Grandiose said:

    Mr. Herdson, you're spot on. Pre-prepared is a vile delinquent of a tautology.

    Apologies, it's what happens when you are struggling with Vanilla on a mobile phone. The tautology is bad enough, to use a Brownism (as David Herdson has pointed out), inexcusable.

    This might be the most controversial thing I've ever written on pb, but I don't mind "pre-prepared". To be tautologous it would have to mean the same as "prepared", but to my mind it doesn't - pre-prepared means well in advance (and "completed" in some sense), prepared means ready for.
    Well
    I've just thought of an example of pre-planning. Yesterday I planned a day out to Torres Vedras, I will probably go tomorrow. If I had planned it in advance before coming out to Portugal (other than a vague idea I would like to go there) I suppose you could say it was pre-planned

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    You can get 33/1 on Neil Lennon as next West Brom boss with Betfair Sportsbook

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/west-brom/next-permanent-manager

    Did you get on ?

    He is 12-1 now.

    Oddschecker often leaves up old prices.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Pulpstar said:

    You can get 33/1 on Neil Lennon as next West Brom boss with Betfair Sportsbook

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/west-brom/next-permanent-manager

    Did you get on ?

    He is 12-1 now.

    Oddschecker often leaves up old prices.
    Nope, 12/1 still a good bet, I think.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Socrates said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I doubt that Michelle Obama's displeasure was caused by lack of reverence.

    Why not? I wouldn't be impressed if my spouse or another family member was taking selfies at a funeral. It was poor form by all three heads of government, and I think sexism is the main reason people are mocking Michelle Obama for it.
    I never said that !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    MJ Hibbett sings The Lesson the Smiths: a very important message for all PBers on Euro-election day

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktNNC0pX79M
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 2h

    Beware of cheap and devious imitations, look out for 'UK Independence Party' and our famous £ sign logo at the bottom of your ballot paper."


    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Sad day for English cricket

    The England & Wales Cricket Board are expected to make history later today by announcing they have charged Lou Vincent and his former Sussex team-mate Naved Arif with fixing the outcome of a county cricket match.

    Telegraph Sport can reveal that former New Zealand batsman Vincent, who has already confessed to fixing, and Arif, a Pakistani living in this country, are being charged with more than 15 counts of match-fixing.

    If the players are found guilty they face lifetime bans from the sport, and the 40-over match between Sussex and Kent played at Hove in August 2011 will be the first proven case of the result of a county match being fixed.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/10848956/ECB-charge-Lou-Vincent-and-Naved-Arif-with-match-fixing-county-cricket-game.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Tim Montgomerie ‏@TimMontgomerie 2m

    Ooh. @NickHerbertMP just said "f**kwit" on BBC2 - without the asterisks. He was quoting Police Fed attacks on the estimable Theresa May.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Electorate is about 45 million. 40% turnout gives c.18 million votes, so a party getting for example 30% would be receiving around 5.4 million votes, same as the population of Scotland.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2014
    Wow! Nick Herbert didn't pull his punches there when repeating one particular insult on twitter by another guest that was directed at Theresa May yesterday after her speech to the Police Federation on the Daily Politics.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Sad day for English cricket

    The England & Wales Cricket Board are expected to make history later today by announcing they have charged Lou Vincent and his former Sussex team-mate Naved Arif with fixing the outcome of a county cricket match.

    Telegraph Sport can reveal that former New Zealand batsman Vincent, who has already confessed to fixing, and Arif, a Pakistani living in this country, are being charged with more than 15 counts of match-fixing.

    If the players are found guilty they face lifetime bans from the sport, and the 40-over match between Sussex and Kent played at Hove in August 2011 will be the first proven case of the result of a county match being fixed.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/10848956/ECB-charge-Lou-Vincent-and-Naved-Arif-with-match-fixing-county-cricket-game.html

    English cricketers are paid very badly in comparison to most other sports whereas the amounts of money bet on cricket in India are enormous, so it's not altogether surprising this would happen eventually.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, sounds rather uncouth from Herbert (and the police, for that matter).

    It's staggering how little support the police has now.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    On Sion Simon - it's interesting that everyone blames Brown for everything, but what about the Labour MPs who got carried away? Why wasn't it obvious to them that Brown was a dud and he had little chance of increasing Labour's majority. Instead the likes of Simon thought calling an election would see an enhanced mandate.
  • Pulpstar said:

    You can get 33/1 on Neil Lennon as next West Brom boss with Betfair Sportsbook

    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/west-brom/next-permanent-manager

    Did you get on ?

    He is 12-1 now.

    Oddschecker often leaves up old prices.
    Nope, 12/1 still a good bet, I think.
    The power of PB to move markets. Now 11/2.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Eagles, sounds rather uncouth from Herbert (and the police, for that matter).

    It's staggering how little support the police has now.

    I like Nick Herbert, always have, a few years ago I did tip him as a future Tory leader..
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Pulpstar said:

    Socrates said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I doubt that Michelle Obama's displeasure was caused by lack of reverence.

    Why not? I wouldn't be impressed if my spouse or another family member was taking selfies at a funeral. It was poor form by all three heads of government, and I think sexism is the main reason people are mocking Michelle Obama for it.
    I never said that !
    Sorry. I clipped it wrongly and can't edit it now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    ABSOLUTELY NOT SUITABLE FOR WORK

    But not the first time Nick Herbert has used a naughty word that was captured live on TV

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmAhY7U6OGQ
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr Bercow refused to accept Miss Watson’s resignation over the fiasco.

    Well Jenny Watson has at least gone up a little in my estimation. She may even be above Bercow now.
    That's a low blow
    You have to aim low to hit Bercow...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, perhaps, once future Prime Minister Justine Greening retires.

    In unrelated news, Chrome's suddenly started highlighting auto-filled boxes yellow. Why do tech things have to introduce pointless little changes?

    In P1 the other teams seem a little closer to Mercedes, but sandbagging's always possible, and position is critical in Monaco. Off-chance of rain during the race, but it's likely to be dry. Qualifying near certain to be dry.

    Because the first two practice sessions are on Thursday nothing happens on a Friday. P3, qualifying and race take place at the usual sort of times.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Farage by Oborne

    "Whether or not Ukip wins, this month’s European election campaign has belonged to one politician alone: Nigel Farage. Single-handedly he has brought these otherwise moribund elections to life."

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9212811/ukips-triumph/
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014
    F1 Morris - Rosberg pole 2.56? They're hiding the overround from me.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    UKIP can't complain about bad luck, with this being reported today:

    "Rise in EU immigration to the UK":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27517379

    "The inconveniently-timed net migration figures are out this morning, and they’re not good for the Prime Minister’s pledge to get immigration into the ‘tens of thousands’ by the general election. The Office for National Statistics estimates that net long-term migration to the UK was 212,000 in 2013."

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/todays-migration-figures-show-why-cameron-should-drop-his-tens-of-thousands-target/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Briskin, unless something remarkable appears, I won't be betting on qualifying. A tiny slip can not only end someone's session, but that of a car reasonably close behind.

    Rosberg should probably be a bit shorter, but 2.56 does not tempt me.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Wales is going to be underwater by sunday.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I doubt that Michelle Obama's displeasure was caused by lack of reverence.

    Why not? I wouldn't be impressed if my spouse or another family member was taking selfies at a funeral. It was poor form by all three heads of government, and I think sexism is the main reason people are mocking Michelle Obama for it.
    Funerals should be a time to mourn and also have fun remembering the life of the deceased. Unnecessary seriousness is, for me, the reason funerals are such thoroughly depressing events. The loss is enough on its own without draining yourself of everything positive and enjoyable.
    Should all photography be banned at funerals? If not a selfie is no different to any other photo.

    As for sexism. Well, different opinions are usually down to latent fascism aren't they? It's a good way to demonise your counter anyway.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited May 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Surely the biggest political event in the world recently, which has barely had a peep of a mention here is the Russia-China gas deal, and the closer economic & almost by neccessity political cooperation it implies

    Most of the political class have anaesthetised themselves with the belief that we can replace North Sea oil and gas with fracking, so they're unwilling to look at the reality of where our energy comes from...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Peter Oborne, who is no UKIP stooge, writes in the Spectator:

    "Whether or not Ukip wins, this month’s European election campaign has belonged to one politician alone: Nigel Farage. Single-handedly he has brought these otherwise moribund elections to life. Single-handedly he has restored passion, genuine debate and meaning to politics. Single-handedly he has reinvented British democracy.

    This is a superlative achievement, and Mr Farage deserves to be celebrated. Instead strenuous attempts have been made to turn him into a figure of odium and contempt. Farage has twice been physically assaulted, once when attacked with eggs whilst campaigning in Nottingham, once when struck on the head by a placard-bearing protester in Margate.

    He has been labelled a racist and a fascist. There have been comparisons with Hitler. He has endured by far the most hostile press and media coverage of any mainstream politician in living memory — far more brutal than anything encountered by Neil Kinnock in 1987 and 1992."


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9212811/ukips-triumph/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Corporeal, should improve England's prospects in next year's Six Nations.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    corporeal said:

    Wales is going to be underwater by sunday.

    Not the attractive parts.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    corporeal said:

    Wales is going to be underwater by sunday.

    It's the invasion of Southampton by Norman thunderstorms that is most spectacular.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Peter Oborne, who is no UKIP stooge, writes in the Spectator:

    "Whether or not Ukip wins, this month’s European election campaign has belonged to one politician alone: Nigel Farage. Single-handedly he has brought these otherwise moribund elections to life. Single-handedly he has restored passion, genuine debate and meaning to politics. Single-handedly he has reinvented British democracy.

    This is a superlative achievement, and Mr Farage deserves to be celebrated. Instead strenuous attempts have been made to turn him into a figure of odium and contempt. Farage has twice been physically assaulted, once when attacked with eggs whilst campaigning in Nottingham, once when struck on the head by a placard-bearing protester in Margate.

    He has been labelled a racist and a fascist. There have been comparisons with Hitler. He has endured by far the most hostile press and media coverage of any mainstream politician in living memory — far more brutal than anything encountered by Neil Kinnock in 1987 and 1992."


    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9212811/ukips-triumph/

    Oborne is no doubt attracted to the destruction of workers rights that will be the crowning glory of Lord Sir Nigel's premiership.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Tremendous stuff, announcing I've voted Conservative on my Facebook has some distinctly seperate friends 'debating' politics.

    One can only imagine the storm on my own timeline I'd have brewed up if I'd said I'd voted UKIP.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Mr. Corporeal, should improve England's prospects in next year's Six Nations.

    At this rate Mr Dancer it will have to be a combined rugby and water polo tournament.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Corporeal, you don't stand a chance against English enormo-haddock.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "SNP and Ukip square up in battle for Scotland's sixth European seat

    Alex Salmond condemns Ukip's 'appalling politics of intolerance' while David Coburn, its top European candidate, says Nationalists should stop watching Braveheart"


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10847747/SNP-and-Ukip-square-up-in-battle-for-Scotlands-sixth-European-seat.html
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    Oborne is right about one thing. Farage has single handedly done one thing.. Detoxify the Tory brand.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818

    Socrates said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I doubt that Michelle Obama's displeasure was caused by lack of reverence.

    Why not? I wouldn't be impressed if my spouse or another family member was taking selfies at a funeral. It was poor form by all three heads of government, and I think sexism is the main reason people are mocking Michelle Obama for it.
    Funerals should be a time to mourn and also have fun remembering the life of the deceased. Unnecessary seriousness is, for me, the reason funerals are such thoroughly depressing events. The loss is enough on its own without draining yourself of everything positive and enjoyable.
    Should all photography be banned at funerals? If not a selfie is no different to any other photo.

    As for sexism. Well, different opinions are usually down to latent fascism aren't they? It's a good way to demonise your counter anyway.
    Was it a funeral or a memorial service? Funerals are naturally more sombre and not sure selfies are appropriate. Memorial services ,especially for people who die in their 90's should not need to conform to rigid decorum .
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    In Wales it'll be a straight contest between Labour and UKIP for first place. Labour ought to win easily but I just wonder if something unexpected might happen.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sean_F said:

    I'll vote in a few minutes. The polling station is the Luton Masonic Centre.

    Sadly, my mother-in-law died last night, so I won't be paying as much attention to the results as usual.

    My condolences sean.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely the biggest political event in the world recently, which has barely had a peep of a mention here is the Russia-China gas deal, and the closer economic & almost by neccessity political cooperation it implies

    Most of the political class have anaesthetised themselves with the belief that we can replace North Sea oil and gas with fracking, so they're unwilling to look at the reality of where our energy comes from...
    8% of our energy comes from Australia? I assume that's cheap coal...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Socrates said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I doubt that Michelle Obama's displeasure was caused by lack of reverence.

    Why not? I wouldn't be impressed if my spouse or another family member was taking selfies at a funeral. It was poor form by all three heads of government, and I think sexism is the main reason people are mocking Michelle Obama for it.
    Funerals should be a time to mourn and also have fun remembering the life of the deceased. Unnecessary seriousness is, for me, the reason funerals are such thoroughly depressing events. The loss is enough on its own without draining yourself of everything positive and enjoyable.
    Should all photography be banned at funerals? If not a selfie is no different to any other photo.

    As for sexism. Well, different opinions are usually down to latent fascism aren't they? It's a good way to demonise your counter anyway.
    Was it a funeral or a memorial service? Funerals are naturally more sombre and not sure selfies are appropriate. Memorial services ,especially for people who die in their 90's should not need to conform to rigid decorum .
    I'm comfortable with selfies at either myself, but it needs to be within the context of bonhomie in memorial of the departed.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    AndyJS said:

    Sad day for English cricket

    The England & Wales Cricket Board are expected to make history later today by announcing they have charged Lou Vincent and his former Sussex team-mate Naved Arif with fixing the outcome of a county cricket match.

    Telegraph Sport can reveal that former New Zealand batsman Vincent, who has already confessed to fixing, and Arif, a Pakistani living in this country, are being charged with more than 15 counts of match-fixing.

    If the players are found guilty they face lifetime bans from the sport, and the 40-over match between Sussex and Kent played at Hove in August 2011 will be the first proven case of the result of a county match being fixed.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/10848956/ECB-charge-Lou-Vincent-and-Naved-Arif-with-match-fixing-county-cricket-game.html

    English cricketers are paid very badly in comparison to most other sports whereas the amounts of money bet on cricket in India are enormous, so it's not altogether surprising this would happen eventually.
    Except that neither player was English
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Away, pretty sure it was the memorial, at which many South Africans were singing and dancing, and there was a chap pretending to sign.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    http://order-order.com/2014/05/22/electoral-commission-investigating-folded-ukip-ballot-papers/

    I've never been so relevant!

    The Electoral Commission guidance to polling station staff is clear:

    “Fold the ballot paper, then hand it to the voter unfolded. Ask them to re-fold it once they’ve marked their ballot paper in the polling booth.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Romanian and Bulgarian NI registrations up by 40,000 in a year:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27517379
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Socrates said:
    It is outstanding in the extent to which it re-writes history: "Are you thinking what I'm thinking?"
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014
    [Tremendous stuff, announcing I've voted Conservative on my Facebook has some distinctly seperate friends 'debating' politics. ]

    Just tell them you're Team PB!!!!!

    http://youtu.be/8hojDnWRKrw
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    GREENS tightening on Shadsy's line bet market. Now 8% (+1 point).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    AndyJS said:

    Sad day for English cricket

    The England & Wales Cricket Board are expected to make history later today by announcing they have charged Lou Vincent and his former Sussex team-mate Naved Arif with fixing the outcome of a county cricket match.

    Telegraph Sport can reveal that former New Zealand batsman Vincent, who has already confessed to fixing, and Arif, a Pakistani living in this country, are being charged with more than 15 counts of match-fixing.

    If the players are found guilty they face lifetime bans from the sport, and the 40-over match between Sussex and Kent played at Hove in August 2011 will be the first proven case of the result of a county match being fixed.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/10848956/ECB-charge-Lou-Vincent-and-Naved-Arif-with-match-fixing-county-cricket-game.html

    English cricketers are paid very badly in comparison to most other sports whereas the amounts of money bet on cricket in India are enormous, so it's not altogether surprising this would happen eventually.
    Except that neither player was English
    Far - rage should get on this - non EU migrants coming over here taking our bribes..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    F1: Just under 10 minutes to P2. Might be soggy.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    Latest Betfair prices - Euros - GB Most Votes (80,968 pounds matched)

    UKIP 1.39
    Lab 3.4
    Con 42
    Grn 1000
    LD 1000
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Sad day for English cricket

    The England & Wales Cricket Board are expected to make history later today by announcing they have charged Lou Vincent and his former Sussex team-mate Naved Arif with fixing the outcome of a county cricket match.

    Telegraph Sport can reveal that former New Zealand batsman Vincent, who has already confessed to fixing, and Arif, a Pakistani living in this country, are being charged with more than 15 counts of match-fixing.

    If the players are found guilty they face lifetime bans from the sport, and the 40-over match between Sussex and Kent played at Hove in August 2011 will be the first proven case of the result of a county match being fixed.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/10848956/ECB-charge-Lou-Vincent-and-Naved-Arif-with-match-fixing-county-cricket-game.html

    English cricketers are paid very badly in comparison to most other sports whereas the amounts of money bet on cricket in India are enormous, so it's not altogether surprising this would happen eventually.
    Except that neither player was English
    Well, I meant cricketers playing in England. Sorry for the bad phrasing.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    The chart on page 5 demonstrates the utter failure of the Tories to curb immigration:

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_362934.pdf
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm hopeful the BNP will do as badly as 1% compared to 6.2% in 2009. Their best region will probably be Yorkshire & The Humber where they might get 2-3%. Griffin will be on the end of a truly appalling defeat in the North West: it'll be interesting to see how low they go there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    David Cameron has JUST ANNOUNCED he's voted Conservative on his Facebook page.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2014

    Betting advice: Steven Gerrard e/w @ 16/1 for SPOTY. It'll be Giggs all over again, with the chance of some World Cup heroics (or, failing that, defeat with honour) adding to his lustre.

    Hamilton looks terrible value, given that (a) the sport is only half on BBC, (b) he doesn't pay his taxes and (c) he's black (unfortunately this is still very much an issue with phone votes).

    Andy Murray at 16/1(he could win a couple of majors)

    PS - Thanks for your Switzerland tip the other day, I'll be doing a world cup thread in a week or so, and you will be appropriately credited for that tip.
    Name the last 4 'black' winners of SPOTY -no googling! The term black as used in its widest sense

    Sorry its not obvious from the above that I was responding to a quote that says black sportspeople are at a disadvantage of winning it
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    I've just remembered, it is likely that Sion Simon will become an MEP in the West Midlands.

    The European Parliament is lucky to have a such a talented and perceptive person.

    Here is an example of his scholarly work, from 2007.

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

    What in intriguing article. It really should be posted here more often.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    AndyJS said:

    In Wales it'll be a straight contest between Labour and UKIP for first place. Labour ought to win easily but I just wonder if something unexpected might happen.

    LAB were odds-on FAV by miles in Hills' Wales market (now closed).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Latest Betfair prices - Euros - GB Most Votes (80,968 pounds matched)

    UKIP 1.39
    Lab 3.4
    Con 42
    Grn 1000
    LD 1000

    Might still be worth putting a fiver on the Tories.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Betting advice: Steven Gerrard e/w @ 16/1 for SPOTY. It'll be Giggs all over again, with the chance of some World Cup heroics (or, failing that, defeat with honour) adding to his lustre.

    Hamilton looks terrible value, given that (a) the sport is only half on BBC, (b) he doesn't pay his taxes and (c) he's black (unfortunately this is still very much an issue with phone votes).

    Andy Murray at 16/1(he could win a couple of majors)

    PS - Thanks for your Switzerland tip the other day, I'll be doing a world cup thread in a week or so, and you will be appropriately credited for that tip.
    Name the last 4 'black' winners of SPOTY -no googling! The term black as used in its widest sense

    Sorry its not obvious from the above that I was responding to a quote that says black sportspeople are at a disadvantage of winning it
    Daley Thompson, Lewis Hamilton, frank Bruno, john Conteh?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Latest Betfair prices - Euros - GB Most Votes (80,968 pounds matched)

    UKIP 1.39
    Lab 3.4
    Con 42
    Grn 1000
    LD 1000

    Isn't it too late to bet now? Labour at 3.4 looks incredible value.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    edited May 2014
    Sympathies, Sean F.

    Turnout at small working-class polling station just 5% at 11. Knockup getting about 70% of usual promise - the occasional Kipper and some non-voters. Everyone fully aware of the election and quite a bit of interest.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Is this GREEN price value?

    Ladbrokes - GB Vote Share Match Bet

    Lib Dems 4/6
    Greens 11/10

    Yes it is IMO.

    Just the odd spot of rain here in Nottingham at the moment, overcast but not dark.

    Thanks Nick. Nice to get a feel from the coalface. I suspect that Ladbrokes have been taking quite a bit of cash in their two GREEN markets.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2014
    The graph on page 6 of that link says it all. The fourth year into this government and even non-EU net immigration is flatlining at 150,000 a year, about two and a half times as many as we were getting before New Labour got into office in 1997.

    New Labour fundamentally transformed our society to be increasingly foreign, immigrant society. Of course they did: people of British grandparents don't like voting for them all that much. And the Tories are too unwilling or incompetent to reverse it. Why not bring back the primary purpose rule? Why not bring in a two year relationship requirement for married couples, as exists for unmarried couples? Why not raise the spouse visa age to 21? Why not increase the income requirement to provide for a dependent to £30,000?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Latest Betfair prices - Euros - GB Most Votes (80,968 pounds matched)

    UKIP 1.39
    Lab 3.4
    Con 42
    Grn 1000
    LD 1000

    Isn't it too late to bet now? Labour at 3.4 looks incredible value.
    Nope. This is one of Betfair's "In Play" markets. (Very pretty to watch as it flashes away as matches are made. If you are a sad git.)

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    F1: track's wet so nobody's going out, waiting for it to dry.

    The soft tyre (harder compound at this weekend) seems to be taking a while to warm up. 8-9 laps, according to Grosjean, 3 laps for Mercedes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    Afternoon all :)

    I'm afraid Oborne's claim that Farage has suffered far worse treatment than Neil Kinnock at the hands of the media is not only absurd but seem steeped in selective memory. Take Twitter and the blogsphere out of the equation and Farage still has plenty of friends. Imagine the 1992 and 1997 electoral campaigns with Twitter.

    The point is that Farage and UKIP have been recognised as an existential threat to both the Conservative and Labour parties in a way not seen since the emergence of the SDP. In a sense, the one thing worse than being talked about is NOT being talked about.

    One other point - given the Conservative dominance on this site, it's strange that I've seen virtually no comment on the possibility of the Conservative Party finishing third in a national election for the first time under universal suffrage and scoring (20-22% perhaps ?) their lowest ever share in a national poll.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    Frank, LAB at 3.4 (3.45 now btw) is not that incredible. Coral have the same price.

    I suspect that LAB are going to have serious GOTV woes in parts of GB which are not also voting in council elections. Eg. Scotland.
This discussion has been closed.