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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive

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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    Well the rain is falling steadily in the North East. A chance for the Kippers to make gains on South Tyneside & Sunderland councils? I can't see them getting anywhere in Newcastle, Gateshead or North Tyneside. No locals for us in Co. Durham.

    I'm not voting until this afternoon - definitely Green in an effort to push the LDs into 5th place. Ska for president!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Sean_F said:

    I'll vote in a few minutes. The polling station is the Luton Masonic Centre.

    Sadly, my mother-in-law died last night, so I won't be paying as much attention to the results as usual.

    Sorry to hear that.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    When I voted today I glanced down the (very long) ballot paper and couldn't see UKIP. I knew they must be at the bottom, and then I noticed that the very bottom was folded backwards (all the other folds were forwards). Combined with an Independence from Europe being at the top, that could hurt people. The electoral commission just seem out to get UKIP to be honest. I'm not surprised - they're probably all political nerds that support the historic parties.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818

    DavidL said:

    rogerh said:

    Is any polling company carrying out an exit poll on the Euros today?

    I don't know about exit polls, but Populus online will be running a poll this evening from the close of polls which they want rapid responses to, for almost immediate reporting.
    It’s illegal to publish an exit poll for the Euros (or anything else) before the polls close. So nothing can be published until Sunday evening when voting closes in the last of our partner countries.
    Correct but all part of the delusions of the project. As if anyone, even Nick Clegg, would really give a monkeys about how they were voting in Spain, Italy, France...

    It wouldn't change a single vote in this country, even if our press could be bothered to report it.

    You underestimate Guardian readers - had an enquiry just yesterday from a voter wavering between Labour and Green and asking about the overall balance and outlook in the EP.
    Bet that made you reach for google!!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Sean_F said:

    I'll vote in a few minutes. The polling station is the Luton Masonic Centre.

    Sadly, my mother-in-law died last night, so I won't be paying as much attention to the results as usual.

    Condolences Sean. I hope your wife is doing ok.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Pulpstar said:

    Well on the flip side, England's chances of getting out of the group just went through the roof.

    On the downside, by bets on Uruguay winning the world cup, and him being golden boot winner and scoring more than England bets just became losers.

    Luis Suárez's World Cup for Uruguay in doubt after knee injury

    Liverpool striker damaged meniscus in training

    Surgery could rule him out for up to six weeks

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/22/luis-suarez-world-cup-uruguay-injury

    I've got a fiver each way on him for Golden boot. I assume its a likely loser now rather than void ?
    I'm hoping they'll void them, though the Suarez goals bets are with Paddy Power, knowing Paddy, they'll refund the stakes as a free bet.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    A big set of economic stats from ONS this morning, including:

    • Public Sector Finances for April 2014
    • Second Estimate of GDP for Q1 2014
    • Index of Services for March 2014
    • Business Investment Q1 2014 Provisional Results

    Also releases on NEETS, Migration Statistics, and, GDP and the Labour Market.

    Starting from the top, here are the Key Findings from the PSF Bulletin.

    Poor another_richard. Whatever will he post about when George finally eliminates the deficit? It is certainly getting nearer every month as the good news in this bulletin shows.

    This is the first estimate of April 2014 (financial year 2014/15) and the second for the financial year 2013/14. Both estimates will continue to be revised as more data becomes available.

    • For the financial year 2013/14 public sector net borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions, the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan and the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund was £107.4 billion. This was £7.8 billion lower than in 2012/13, when it was £115.1 billion.

    • During the financial year 2013/14, £31.1 billion was transferred from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund to HM Treasury. Of this amount, £12.2 billion impacted on net borrowing.

    • For the financial year 2013/14, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex) was £95.2 billion. This was £14.5 billion higher than in 2012/13, when it was £80.7 billion.

    • In April 2014, public sector net borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions, the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan and the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund was £11.5 billion. This was £1.9 billion higher than in April 2013, when it was £9.5 billion.

    • In April 2014, £4.1 billion was transferred from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund to HM Treasury. In April 2013, £3.9 billion was transferred. Both transfers impacted on net borrowing.

    • In April 2014, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex) was £7.4 billion. This was £1.7 billion higher than in April 2013, when it was £5.6 billion.

    The central government net cash requirement for the financial year 2013/14 was £75.4 billion, £29.6 billion lower than in 2012/13, when it was £105.0 billion.

    • At the end of April 2014, Public sector net debt excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSND ex) was £1,270.8 billion, equivalent to 75.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes · 57m

    26% of voters more inclined, 16% less inclined to vote Tory today because of Cam's commitment to hold EU referendum

    These questions always seem so pointless when asked to the overall electorate. Those considering voting Conservative and also considering another party should be the denominator.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2014
    Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Tory of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. To me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @SeanF Sorry to hear of your loss.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Socrates said:

    When I voted today I glanced down the (very long) ballot paper and couldn't see UKIP. I knew they must be at the bottom, and then I noticed that the very bottom was folded backwards (all the other folds were forwards). Combined with an Independence from Europe being at the top, that could hurt people. The electoral commission just seem out to get UKIP to be honest. I'm not surprised - they're probably all political nerds that support the historic parties.

    Paranoid much?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    That should be void shouldn't it Pulpstar?? They void it when the horse's are non-runners don't they?? (I genuinely don't know - I don't bet much on horses)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Troy of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. TO me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake

    Troy? I'm assuming the Achaeans are also standing as well?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Of course there will be some legitimate support for the Nattrass splitters too. UKIP has a long and glorious history of self inflicted wounds due to internal feuds.

    It does give some insight into how Farage and his allies deal with internal debate.

    As I have said before I do find it kind of ironic that the AIFE is being touted by some as a more legitimate anti_EU vote than UKIP and yet many of its candidates were thrown out of UKIP for just the sort of behaviour that UKIP is criticised for.

    If you want to vote for BNP light then certainly AIFE is the where you should place your mark.
    Not "more legitimate", just that some people who decide to vote for AIFE will have done so for conscious reasons, rather than because they were mislead by an intention to deceive and confuse.

    Of course, some of this conscious reasoning might be based on faulty or partial information, if people have heard about the alleged misdeeds of UKIP but not those of AIFE.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818

    Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Troy of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. TO me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake

    Troy? I'm assuming the Achaeans are also standing as well?
    oh I would have loved to vote for Helen Of Troy , an early Thatcher I believe
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    More good news on Business Investment

    Key Findings:

    The estimates in this release are short term indicators of investment in assets, such as dwellings, transport equipment, machinery, buildings and intangible assets, across the United Kingdom. This release covers not only business investment, but asset breakdowns of total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), of which business investment is one component.

    All investment data referred to in this bulletin are estimates of seasonally adjusted chained volume measures.

    • Compared with the previous quarter, GFCF was estimated to have increased by £0.3 billion (0.6%) to £56.2 billion. On a sector basis, the largest increase came from business investment; in terms of assets, the largest increases came from other machinery and equipment, and dwellings.

    • In Q1 2014, business investment rose by an estimated £0.9 billion (2.7%) to £32.8 billion compared with the previous quarter and was 8.7% higher compared with Q1 2013.

    • GFCF and business investment have both shown quarter on quarter increases in each of the last five quarters. This was the first time five or more consecutive periods of growth were reported since 1998.

    Business investment was at its highest level since Q3 2008.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Mr. Octopus, welcome to pb.com.

    Many thanks. I've been lurking PB for some years - I read it every day. Only started commenting now to distract from writing my MSci thesis.
    I'm sure your MSci thesis will be just fine. It is hardly likely to be as bad as mine, which one examiner described as "turgid".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Many thanks. In a sense, it's a relief, as she'd been in and out of hospital repeatedly for 12 months, and had been very unwell.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Troy of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. TO me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake

    Troy? I'm assuming the Achaeans are also standing as well?
    History suggests it's going to be a literally devastating defeat for them.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Sean_F said:

    I'll vote in a few minutes. The polling station is the Luton Masonic Centre.

    Sadly, my mother-in-law died last night, so I won't be paying as much attention to the results as usual.

    Sorry to hear that, Sean. Condolences to you and your family.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Fifth in the Euros is probably a better than 50/50 shot for the Libs.

    However, it is very hard for the Libs to get no seats. The 'hurdle' in SE East England is probably only about 7%, which means that the Libs probably need to get less than 6% nationally. Possible? Yes. Likely, No.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    Its the strapline that really makes you believe AIFE is UKIP to anyone not a regular on PB (ie 99.999% of people) .
    The party name gets you a bit confused so you read lower and it then seems to confirm its UKIP with only the last word of the strapline different.
    The EC has some answering to do imo .,not so much the party name but allowing that strapline
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    JBriskin said:

    That should be void shouldn't it Pulpstar?? They void it when the horse's are non-runners don't they?? (I genuinely don't know - I don't bet much on horses)

    Horse bets once runners are declared, Yes.

    Ante-post, No.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014

    Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Troy of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. TO me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake

    Troy? I'm assuming the Achaeans are also standing as well?
    History suggests it's going to be a literally devastating defeat for them.
    Maybe not.

    AIFE = The Greek's horse to Troy/UKIP. (Commonly known as a Trojan Horse, but I don't like it, as it implies the horse came from Troy)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    No change in GDP in Second Estimate of Q1 2014

    • UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.8% between Q4 2013 and Q1 2014, unrevised from the previous estimate of GDP published 29 April 2014.

    • GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.7% in 2013, compared with 2012, unrevised from the estimate published on 29 April 2014.

    • Between Q1 2013 and Q1 2014 GDP in volume terms increased by 3.1%, unrevised from the previously published estimate.

    • GDP in current prices was estimated to have increased by 1.2% between Q4 2013 and Q1 2014.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Away, I think you're right about that. It would be very easy to make that mistake.

    The Electoral Commission does seem to be quite rubbish.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Away, I think you're right about that. It would be very easy to make that mistake.

    The Electoral Commission does seem to be quite rubbish.

    They are, I still can't believe they let in that Lee Rigby reference onto the ballot paper.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Lennon said:

    Good luck to any amongst our number who are candidates today. You are defenders of democracy, however many votes you get.

    Thanks. As a first time candidate it was slightly odd putting a cross next to my own name on the ballot paper! Good luck to all the other PBers going through the same thing today. :-)
    I know someone who didn't vote for themselves (because it was unlucky) and then lost by 1 vote...
    It wasn't Michael Portillo was it?
    Goodness no! What makes you think I'd be friends with someone like him?

    ;-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?

    If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Thanks Pulpstar - to be honest I don't fully understand that, well I might, I'm not sure - anyway I don't bet on horses much.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    Poor PSNB figure this morning, a large increase on last April. Must. Do. Better.

    It is clear now that the easy gains have all been had and now public sector spending must actually be reduced or frozen in real terms so tax collection can catch up. The government must stop growing public sector spending.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Well on the flip side, England's chances of getting out of the group just went through the roof.

    On the downside, by bets on Uruguay winning the world cup, and him being golden boot winner and scoring more than England bets just became losers.

    Luis Suárez's World Cup for Uruguay in doubt after knee injury

    Liverpool striker damaged meniscus in training

    Surgery could rule him out for up to six weeks

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/22/luis-suarez-world-cup-uruguay-injury

    I've got a fiver each way on him for Golden boot. I assume its a likely loser now rather than void ?
    I'm hoping they'll void them, though the Suarez goals bets are with Paddy Power, knowing Paddy, they'll refund the stakes as a free bet.
    Ladbrokes..

    06/12/2013 xx Single (Each-Way) 2 £ 10.00 2014 World Cup Top tournament goalscorer Luis Suarez 25/1 Pending
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Indeed, Mr. Eagles (on the EC/Lee Rigby). Complaining about the high turnout (less than 70%) last time was also feeble.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818

    Mr. Away, I think you're right about that. It would be very easy to make that mistake.

    The Electoral Commission does seem to be quite rubbish.

    At best I hope they are merely rubbish ,at worst I hope to god they are not biased against a party . If AIFE get a fairly big percentage from people who thought they were voting UKIP then I hope the top brass get sacked . Democracy is too important to tolerate incompetents
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Lennon said:

    Good luck to any amongst our number who are candidates today. You are defenders of democracy, however many votes you get.

    Thanks. As a first time candidate it was slightly odd putting a cross next to my own name on the ballot paper! Good luck to all the other PBers going through the same thing today. :-)
    I know someone who didn't vote for themselves (because it was unlucky) and then lost by 1 vote...
    It wasn't Michael Portillo was it?
    Goodness no! What makes you think I'd be friends with someone like him?

    ;-)
    Well you do know a lot of very important people.

    I do know someone who knew Michael Portillo from his Kensington and Chelsea days, and his quote was

    "There are two types of people in the world, those who hate Michael Portillo, and those yet to meet Michael Portillo"
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Well on the flip side, England's chances of getting out of the group just went through the roof.

    On the downside, by bets on Uruguay winning the world cup, and him being golden boot winner and scoring more than England bets just became losers.

    Luis Suárez's World Cup for Uruguay in doubt after knee injury

    Liverpool striker damaged meniscus in training

    Surgery could rule him out for up to six weeks

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/22/luis-suarez-world-cup-uruguay-injury

    I've got a fiver each way on him for Golden boot. I assume its a likely loser now rather than void ?
    I'm hoping they'll void them, though the Suarez goals bets are with Paddy Power, knowing Paddy, they'll refund the stakes as a free bet.
    Ladbrokes..

    06/12/2013 xx Single (Each-Way) 2 £ 10.00 2014 World Cup Top tournament goalscorer Luis Suarez 25/1 Pending
    I doubt they will void them ,certainly won't if he plays just 1 minute of the tournament. I think the rule is the bet stands runner or not
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?

    If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".

    Not Hellenes but horse fairs: a key way of ascertaining the age of an otherwise unknown horse is to examine the teeth to see their state of wear. Basically, the saying is equivalent to "It's rude to be overtly sceptical of a gift".

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    The EC has some answering to do imo .,not so much the party name but allowing that strapline

    Well, worth bearing in mind that the Electoral Commission merely exists to enforce the rules set by Parliament.

    Is there any particular reason for the parties to have a "strapline" on the ballot paper at all? It strikes me that is the flawed stage in the process, together with having the ballot in alphabetical order, as both encourage the parties to use contrivances for their advantage.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    rogerh said:

    If the Lib Dem performance is truly disastrous( eg fifth place in the Euros,no MEP,s losses of 350+council seats and losses of more councils eg Kingston.Sutton?,Portsmouth. Cambridge,Three Rivers Portsmouth) a leadership challenge is possible.
    However what would be the situation if a new leader were elected? Would Nick Clegg have to step down as Deputy PM? Who would decide if a new leader of the Lib dems could be appointed as Deputy PM?

    Presumably, there'd only be any purpose to changing leader if there was to be a change to the Lib Dems' attitude to the coalition. Clegg's problem is no so much personal (he still comes across as an affable, if slightly lightweight, chap); it's political, and therefore would be the same for any other Lib Dem jumping to occupy the same position. If Clegg is forced out, the same logic would have to suggest the Lib Dems leaving government, though that could still be to move to either confidence and supply, or outright opposition.

    In the hypothetical situation that there was a change and the Lib Dems still wanted to stay in government, then yes, Clegg would have to step down. Constitutionally, the PM appoints the cabinet but I can't see any plausible scenario whereby a new Lib Dem leader (or their parliamentary party) could accept Clegg staying in post - nor, for that matter, would Clegg want to, I should imagine. The PM needs a majority in parliament too.

    As for what position the new Lib Dem would take, that would be a matter for negotiation between him and Cameron, and much may depend on whether Cameron wanted a major reshuffle of Tory ministers (in which case the opportunities are far wider), or whether he's happy with his team.

    That said, if set against disastrous May election results, the Lib Dems would not have a strong hand to play if the alternative to what's being offered is to collapse the government and precipitate a general election.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Carnyx, ah... I was misinformed by a childhood history book (I forget whether it was a Horrible or Sticky History). That does make more sense.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited May 2014
    Ladbrokes will void it if he doesn't make it onto the pitch:

    Me: I've backed Suarez top scorer @ the World Cup - but what happens if he is injured ?
    Me And can't play ?
    Me: Void or loser ?
    Venise: If The player does not take part in the World cup your bet will be void.
    Me: Thankyou
    Venise: You're welcome
    Venise: Is there anything else I can assist you with?
    Me: Ye - What does take part mean ?
    Me: In squad, on pitch, on subs bench ?
    Venise: If he paly
    Venise: If the player plays
    Venise: On the pitch
    Me: Thankyou
    Venise: You're welcome
    Venise: Is there anything else I can assist you with?
    Me: Appreciated :)
    Me: No ta
    Venise: Have a nice day


    I doubt they will void them ,certainly won't if he plays just 1 minute of the tournament. I think the rule is the bet stands runner or not

    A minute on the pitch means it is a loser, yep.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?

    If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".

    The Trojans were really inept weren't they?

    I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Speaker John Bercow is being accused of protecting a Left-wing ‘quango queen’ responsible for letting an extreme-Right party use butchered soldier Lee Rigby’s name in this week’s elections.

    Sources revealed that Jenny Watson, head of the Electoral Commission, offered to resign after Britain First was mistakenly allowed to use the description ‘Remember Lee Rigby’ on voting slips for Thursday’s European polls - which fall on the first anniversary of his death.

    The approval given to Britain First - a breakaway group of former BNP activists which describes itself as a 'patriotic resistance frontline' – to adopt the slogan has appalled MPs and Fusilier Rigby’s family.

    But by the time the blunder had been spotted, it was too late to amend ballot papers.
    Government sources revealed that Mr Bercow refused to accept Miss Watson’s resignation over the fiasco. The Commission – the country’s elections watchdog -- is answerable to Parliament via a committee headed by the Speaker.

    ‘Bercow has protected Jenny Watson,’ said one. ‘This is a dreadful episode and ultimately, she is in charge of the body that it responsible for it.


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2635240/Bercow-battles-save-elections-boss-let-extremist-party-use-Lee-Rigbys-election-ballot-papers.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    My positions on the Euros:

    UKIP most votes
    LibDems to get at least one MEP
    AIFE to beat 1.5%
    Labour to fail to get 26%

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    rcs1000 said:

    Fifth in the Euros is probably a better than 50/50 shot for the Libs.

    However, it is very hard for the Libs to get no seats. The 'hurdle' in SE East England is probably only about 7%, which means that the Libs probably need to get less than 6% nationally. Possible? Yes. Likely, No.

    Opinium's last two polls have put the Lib Dems on 5 and 6 per cent respectively, which is wipeout level. Everyone else seems to have them on comparable scores to their Westminster VI.

    Which is right? Historically, the Lib Dems underperform their Westminster polling in European elections (and overperform in locals), however, if they're near bedrock now for Westminster, there're may not be many more floaters to peel off.

    If I had to make a prediction now, it'd be for just the one Lib Dem MEP to be elected, as ninth or tenth in the South East.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    My condolences to you and your family for your loss @Sean_F.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Mr. Carnyx, ah... I was misinformed by a childhood history book (I forget whether it was a Horrible or Sticky History). That does make more sense.

    And I myself forgot to say that the correct English saying is "Never [not Always] look a gift horse in the mouth" - which makes even more sense!

    I suspect the author of the book was deliberately changing the proverb. Don't think it was 1066 and all that. They didn't do "foreign" stuff in that book IIRC.

  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Final prediction on Council changes of control (Possibles rather than probable have question mark)

    Lab Gains

    Bristol from NOC
    Swindon from CON
    Croydon from CON
    Harrow from NOC
    Merton from NOC
    Redbridge from NOC
    Bradford from NOC
    Calderdale from NOC
    Kirklees from NOC
    Stockport from NOC(?)
    Walsall from NOC
    Amber Valley from CON
    Cambridge from LD
    Crawley from CON
    Tamworth frpm CON
    Waveney from NOC
    W Lancs from CON

    Con Gains

    Kingston from LD
    Sutton from LD(?)
    Winchester from NOC(?)
    St Albans from NOC(?)
    Purbeck from NOC(?)

    Con losses to NOC

    Basildon(?)
    Basingstoke(?)

    Lib Dem losses to NOC

    Portsmouth
    Three Rivers.


  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    Morning all.

    Just done my democratic duty here in deepest Sussex. I didn't vote for AIFE or for UKIP.

    There was no-one else at the polling station, and this at 9am when there were lots of people around in the village. If that is typical, I expect turnout will be very low.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...

    I know, I was merely yanking your wiffle stick.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Probably go and vote in the next hour or so. Undecided about the locals, I'll see who's on the ballot paper when I get in.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    @rcs1000 - BTW - Thanks for your donation to the Pirate Party cause the other day - we made the amount we were trying to crowd-fund, and suitably, the last donation to push us over the top was made in Bitcoin! :-)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?

    If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".

    The Trojans were really inept weren't they?

    I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.
    Ten years keeping the entire Hellenic world out? Not too bad.

    And if anyone had Trojan heritage it was allegedly (a) the Scottish royal family, and (b) the Romans, as P. Vergilius Maro expatiated in the Aeneid at great length to polish the lustre of his patron the Emperor ...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, ah, terribly sorry, I'm just so used to you having classical history backwards I thought you'd made another horrendous mistake.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818

    Probably go and vote in the next hour or so. Undecided about the locals, I'll see who's on the ballot paper when I get in.

    Just vote Troy!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Lennon said:

    @rcs1000 - BTW - Thanks for your donation to the Pirate Party cause the other day - we made the amount we were trying to crowd-fund, and suitably, the last donation to push us over the top was made in Bitcoin! :-)

    I'm embarrassed I failed to vote... I'd planned to be piratical...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    Carnyx said:

    Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?

    If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".

    The Trojans were really inept weren't they?

    I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.
    Ten years keeping the entire Hellenic world out? Not too bad.

    And if anyone had Trojan heritage it was allegedly (a) the Scottish royal family, and (b) the Romans, as P. Vergilius Maro expatiated in the Aeneid at great length to polish the lustre of his patron the Emperor ...

    Oooh, I did not know that.

    And my knowledge of classical history is vast and brilliant, so I love it when I learn something new.
  • Greetings from the Dam. Not much sign of election fever here.

    On topic - I doubt it will be close, except for 2nd and 3rd. This is UKIP's day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Greetings from the Dam. Not much sign of election fever here.

    On topic - I doubt it will be close, except for 2nd and 3rd. This is UKIP's day.

    Just be careful which cafes and clubs you visit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Greetings from the Dam. Not much sign of election fever here.

    On topic - I doubt it will be close, except for 2nd and 3rd. This is UKIP's day.

    Conservatives second please very much !
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    rcs1000 said:

    Lennon said:

    @rcs1000 - BTW - Thanks for your donation to the Pirate Party cause the other day - we made the amount we were trying to crowd-fund, and suitably, the last donation to push us over the top was made in Bitcoin! :-)

    I'm embarrassed I failed to vote... I'd planned to be piratical...
    Just looked at the Pirate Party website and policies . So earnest and sensible , so why the name?1!!! Even me who follows politics and small parties to an unhealthy degree would see 'pirate party' and imagine an offshoot of the Monster Raving Looney party with people dressing up as Long John Silver rather than clowns
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Lennon said:

    Good luck to any amongst our number who are candidates today. You are defenders of democracy, however many votes you get.

    Thanks. As a first time candidate it was slightly odd putting a cross next to my own name on the ballot paper! Good luck to all the other PBers going through the same thing today. :-)
    I know someone who didn't vote for themselves (because it was unlucky) and then lost by 1 vote...
    It wasn't Michael Portillo was it?
    Goodness no! What makes you think I'd be friends with someone like him?

    ;-)
    Well you do know a lot of very important people.

    I do know someone who knew Michael Portillo from his Kensington and Chelsea days, and his quote was

    "There are two types of people in the world, those who hate Michael Portillo, and those yet to meet Michael Portillo"
    Which is why I responded to a question you didn't ask...!

    (I think your friend is wrong though: there is a third type: those yet to meet Michael Portillo, but who still hate him...)

    As an aside, I had a very interesting lunch yesterday with a former diplomat and a political editor. Insightful discussion on the potential for renegotiation.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    When I voted today I glanced down the (very long) ballot paper and couldn't see UKIP. I knew they must be at the bottom, and then I noticed that the very bottom was folded backwards (all the other folds were forwards). Combined with an Independence from Europe being at the top, that could hurt people. The electoral commission just seem out to get UKIP to be honest. I'm not surprised - they're probably all political nerds that support the historic parties.

    Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.
    I agree but I'm more referring to the acceptance of a party with "UK Independence Now" as the tag line.

    I also don't see why they don't randomise the order on the ballot. People voting for higher up parties has been clearly established as a psychological effect. They did this in my old student union elections.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    MaxPB said:

    Poor PSNB figure this morning, a large increase on last April. Must. Do. Better.

    It is clear now that the easy gains have all been had and now public sector spending must actually be reduced or frozen in real terms so tax collection can catch up. The government must stop growing public sector spending.

    Max

    You need to look underneath the headline statistics. April 2013 saw the introduction of the 45% top rate of tax and the consequent deferral of income tax liabilities from the prior year.

    Look at how income tax revenues fall compared to other economic activity related receipts:

    Taxes on production in April 2014 were £17.9 billion, a £0.5 billion, or 3.1% increase compared to the same month last year. Of these taxes, VAT receipts increased by £0.4 billion, or 4.1%, to £9.8 billion and Stamp duties (on shares, land & property) increased by £0.3 billion, or 29.8% to £1.1 billion, compared to the same month last year.

    Income tax reported in April 2014 was £11.1 billion, a £0.8 billion, or 6.8% decrease compared to the same month last year.


    Even after allowing for the fall in income tax receipts, April 2014 aggregate receipts were up 0.3% (£0.1 bn) and expenditure was down 1.0% (£0.6 bn) both on April 2013.

    A quick look at the stats shows that the fundamentals are moving in the right direction. The ONR report due around midday should give us further clues, but my early guess based on a quick read of the bulletin is that this month's increase in borrowing is no more than a phasing anomaly.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Morning all.

    Just done my democratic duty here in deepest Sussex. I didn't vote for AIFE or for UKIP.

    There was no-one else at the polling station, and this at 9am when there were lots of people around in the village. If that is typical, I expect turnout will be very low.

    I voted in London. I was the only one there when I got there (about 8:30am), one other person came in while I was voting, and there was someone else talking to the teller when I walked out.

    Having said that, when I got into the office this morning I know two colleagues, both EU citizens, who are determined to vote as they feel the UK needs more pro-European votes. I wonder if there'll be any exit polls on the nationality of those voting?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?

    If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".

    The Trojans were really inept weren't they?

    I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.
    You do realise that the British are descendent from Brutus, Prince of Troy (hence the name Brutan - it was originally called Albion, after the favorite son of Neptune, King of the Sea).

    Source: the best history book EVAH!

    http://www.mainlesson.com/display.php?author=marshall&book=island&story=albion
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    At 10am, 6% turnout in Beeston West (deepest Guardian territory) - a small queue at the polling station. That's roughly General Election level at this time.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Sean_F said:

    Many thanks. In a sense, it's a relief, as she'd been in and out of hospital repeatedly for 12 months, and had been very unwell.

    Condolences to you and your wife, Sean. Even when the circumstances are as you describe, the reality is always a sense of shock and loss.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    When I voted today I glanced down the (very long) ballot paper and couldn't see UKIP. I knew they must be at the bottom, and then I noticed that the very bottom was folded backwards (all the other folds were forwards). Combined with an Independence from Europe being at the top, that could hurt people. The electoral commission just seem out to get UKIP to be honest. I'm not surprised - they're probably all political nerds that support the historic parties.

    Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.
    I agree but I'm more referring to the acceptance of a party with "UK Independence Now" as the tag line.

    I also don't see why they don't randomise the order on the ballot. People voting for higher up parties has been clearly established as a psychological effect. They did this in my old student union elections.
    Absolutely right Socrates. Putting candidates or parties in alphabetical order is lazy and thoughtless!
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Turnout in Merton is mimicking 2006 local elections. Expect 42%.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    I understand Putin has withdrawn troops from the border in order to reduce tensions in the EP election. Judging from my polling station this has worked.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...

    Although didn't Aeneas have a fling with Dido, Queen of Carthage on the way?

    It's a great, but underperformed opera by Purcell

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dido_and_Aeneas
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818

    I understand Putin has withdrawn troops from the border in order to reduce tensions in the EP election. Judging from my polling station this has worked.

    Its Prince Charles who has shamed him into it!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    SeanT said:


    Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.

    Aardvarks Against Europe next time, Mr Farage.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Mark, that'll anger the Aardwolf Party.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Carnyx

    "And if anyone had Trojan heritage it was allegedly (a) the Scottish royal family"

    Which Scottish royal family?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Voted 9.45 this morning, was number 33 through the doors. Weather grey, bit of drizzle.

    Voted Tory. The anarchist tendency in me had toyed with UKIP at one point, just for a laugh, but would have felt ever so slightly soiled if I had....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    SeanT said:


    Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.

    Aardvarks Against Europe next time, Mr Farage.....
    Next time, to tap into Farage's popularity, UKIP should rename themselves, Farage's UKIP, or FUKIP for short.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818

    SeanT said:


    Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.

    Aardvarks Against Europe next time, Mr Farage.....
    No that dastardly Mike Nuttress man (or whatever he is called) would come up with 'A Aardvark against Europe' imo .I wonder if Jenny Watson would disallow that as being not proper grammar !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Charles said:

    Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...

    Although didn't Aeneas have a fling with Dido, Queen of Carthage on the way?

    It's a great, but underperformed opera by Purcell

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dido_and_Aeneas
    Apt that the namesake of Queen of Carthage, Dido, is famous for doing a song called "White Flag"
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Mr. Mark, that'll anger the Aardwolf Party.

    As I might have mentioned previously - perhaps the Pirates should change to the 'Aaaargh... Here be Pirates' Party
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Early morning polling day update from Ladbrokes.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Why is AIFE not listed under I? Articles are usually ignored when alphabetising. Otherwise all the other parties would be listed under T for The
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Aardman Animations Against Europe

    "UKIP? They're the wrong troughers, Gromit!"
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?

    If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".

    The Trojans were really inept weren't they?

    I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.
    The Julii were once Kings of Alba Longa, and were descended both from Aeneas and Venus.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    "... in Brussels, even mid-ranking administrators can take home more cash than the Prime Minister. The leaked papers show that EU officials in the “AD 11” grade, a middle management group, have gross earnings of £112,090, including expatriation and household allowances. But because they pay just 13.4 per cent in tax, they take home £83,357 in net pay."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10847979/10000-European-Union-officials-better-paid-than-David-Cameron.html

    IIRC the budget for 'Brussels' in total is about the same as Birmingham Council. I.e., while Eurocrats are very well paid, there are surprisingly few of them.
    No - this was another one of Nick "the liar" Clegg's distortions.

    170,000 people work for the EU - and this was in 2008, without the last six years growth:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/2535295/EU-bureaucrats-outnumber-British-army-two-to-one-say-campaigners.html

    Birmingham has about 18,000 employees:

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:SwuMmKs9ilEJ:www.thechamberlainfiles.com/birmingham-city-councils-disappearing-act/9199/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

    Nick Clegg was including teachers in the Birmingham City numbers.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Was there a YouGov Westminster VI yesterday? There's nothing on their website and it's usually posted at 6am.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    Morning all :)

    The theatre that is Newham local politics plays out in view of the spare room window of Stodge Towers in deepest East Ham. The candidates stand outside the polling station and try to persuade the voters on the way in. It's been an interesting campaign with Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems all surprisingly active in a Ward which went 70% Labour last time and on all known form will be solidly Labour this time.

    As to whether any other party will break Labour's Pyongyang-esque grasp on power, it seems unlikely though I could see something other than a clean sweep for Labour. I hear the CPA are confident about winning one of the Canning Town Wards and the Tories think they might get one candidate home in Royal Docks but Sir Robin Wales will cruise to re-election as Mayor.

    In other thoughts, amusing to see the UKIP-inclined complain about a little poor and mostly self-inflicted media damage. Compared to the likes of John Major, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg, Farage and his party have had an easy ride

    As others have said, when the Labour leader eating a sandwich becomes a political talking point you have to wonder a) about the standard of political debate and b) the intellectual capacity of those who think it's worth commenting on simply because they feel they have to have an opinion and everyone has to be aware of it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Was there a YouGov Westminster VI yesterday? There's nothing on their website and it's usually posted at 6am.

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 13h

    YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead up one to three points: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Was there a YouGov Westminster VI yesterday? There's nothing on their website and it's usually posted at 6am.

    Nick P posted the 2015 VI igures last night. IIRC Lab on 36% with a 3 point lead over Cons.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Another issue about the electoral commission. Surely the "An" shouldn't count for alphabetical order? Do they count the "The" for "The Conservative and Unionist Party"?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Socrates said:

    Morning all.

    Just done my democratic duty here in deepest Sussex. I didn't vote for AIFE or for UKIP.

    There was no-one else at the polling station, and this at 9am when there were lots of people around in the village. If that is typical, I expect turnout will be very low.

    I voted in London. I was the only one there when I got there (about 8:30am), one other person came in while I was voting, and there was someone else talking to the teller when I walked out.

    Having said that, when I got into the office this morning I know two colleagues, both EU citizens, who are determined to vote as they feel the UK needs more pro-European votes. I wonder if there'll be any exit polls on the nationality of those voting?
    A very brief google reveals that the guidelines are for there to be 2000-2500 electors per polling station.

    Assuming the average is towards the top of that range [for reasons of reducing the overall number of polling stations] then the expected turnout of roughly one-third at these elections would equate to 800 voters at each polling station.

    The polling stations are open for 15 hours, which is 900 minutes.

    Does it take longer than 1 minute to obtain your polling paper, make your appropriate mark and deposit the ballot paper in the box? Assuming one does not linger at the polling station you would not necessarily expect to see another voter in there at the same time - though this also depends on the variation in voting frequency during the day.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    Was there a YouGov Westminster VI yesterday? There's nothing on their website and it's usually posted at 6am.

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 13h

    YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead up one to three points: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%
    Obrigado


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Socrates said:

    Another issue about the electoral commission. Surely the "An" shouldn't count for alphabetical order? Do they count the "The" for "The Conservative and Unionist Party"?

    An is an indefinite article, The is the definite article.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Voted 9.45 this morning, was number 33 through the doors. Weather grey, bit of drizzle.

    Voted Tory.

    Doesn't that put OGH in the position of involuntarily publishing an exit poll?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @stodge

    Clegg certainly had a tough time before the 2010 election, but he's been given an easy ride this time. Three million jobs dependent on the EU. One in seven UK businesses started by an immigrant. Birmingham City Council having more staff than the European Council. All were either highly misleading or outright lies, and yet he hasn't faced any tough interviews for it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Ishmael_X said:

    Voted 9.45 this morning, was number 33 through the doors. Weather grey, bit of drizzle.

    Voted Tory.

    Doesn't that put OGH in the position of involuntarily publishing an exit poll?

    It'll be about as accurate as a Yougov UKIP raw sample.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2014

    Charles said:

    Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...

    Although didn't Aeneas have a fling with Dido, Queen of Carthage on the way?

    It's a great, but underperformed opera by Purcell

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dido_and_Aeneas
    Apt that the namesake of Queen of Carthage, Dido, is famous for doing a song called "White Flag"
    Infamous to anyone who doesn't share your taste in music.

    Anyway, Mary's In India is far better ;-)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Socrates said:

    Another issue about the electoral commission. Surely the "An" shouldn't count for alphabetical order? Do they count the "The" for "The Conservative and Unionist Party"?

    It is for the Conservative Party to decide what name they put on the ballot paper.

    The Conservatives appear to have left the "The" out on the sample ballot papers that I have seen. presumably this is an attempt to move themselves higher up the ballot paper from where they would be if they used the "The".

    The problem you are complaining about is mostly to do with the rules that the electoral commission are enforcing, not with how they are doing so.
This discussion has been closed.