Looking at the detail an increase in migration from the EU for work-related reasons has balanced out a fall in migration from outside the EU for long-term study.
The big picture does still show more immigration to Britain from outside the EU, though, and emigration from Britain is down on the years before the Credit Crunch - which particularly does not help Cameron with his pledge on net migration.
I'm afraid Oborne's claim that Farage has suffered far worse treatment than Neil Kinnock at the hands of the media is not only absurd but seem steeped in selective memory. Take Twitter and the blogsphere out of the equation and Farage still has plenty of friends. Imagine the 1992 and 1997 electoral campaigns with Twitter.
The point is that Farage and UKIP have been recognised as an existential threat to both the Conservative and Labour parties in a way not seen since the emergence of the SDP. In a sense, the one thing worse than being talked about is NOT being talked about.
One other point - given the Conservative dominance on this site, it's strange that I've seen virtually no comment on the possibility of the Conservative Party finishing third in a national election for the first time under universal suffrage and scoring (20-22% perhaps ?) their lowest ever share in a national poll.
Well, it's an extremely likely result of being in government and hordes blindly voting for a protest party without the most transient glance at what they stand for.
Kelly Holmes , Lennox Lewis , Linford Christie and Fatima Whitbread were the last 4 'black' winners with Daley Thompson being the 5th last. Ratio not that bad compared to population (or even sporting population)imo
''In Wales it'll be a straight contest between Labour and UKIP for first place. Labour ought to win easily but I just wonder if something unexpected might happen. ''
Been wondering the same for months. Is it possible that dyed in the wool Welsh labourites might rebel against third world public services at first world prices?
You can get 11/10 (Ladbrokes) that the GREENS will get a higher GB vote share than the LIB DEMS. More than double your cash in less than half a day. How can you say no?
The graph on page 6 of that link says it all. The fourth year into this government and even non-EU net immigration is flatlining at 150,000 a year, about two and a half times as many as we were getting before New Labour got into office in 1997.
New Labour fundamentally transformed our society to be increasingly foreign, immigrant society. Of course they did: people of British grandparents don't like voting for them all that much. And the Tories are too unwilling or incompetent to reverse it. Why not bring back the primary purpose rule? Why not bring in a two year relationship requirement for married couples, as exists for unmarried couples? Why not raise the spouse visa age to 21? Why not increase the income requirement to provide for a dependent to £30,000?
Why not vote for the Conservatives, so that they have a majority in Parliament and consequently have a hope in hell of implementing any of these measures?
I'm afraid Oborne's claim that Farage has suffered far worse treatment than Neil Kinnock at the hands of the media is not only absurd but seem steeped in selective memory. Take Twitter and the blogsphere out of the equation and Farage still has plenty of friends. Imagine the 1992 and 1997 electoral campaigns with Twitter.
The point is that Farage and UKIP have been recognised as an existential threat to both the Conservative and Labour parties in a way not seen since the emergence of the SDP. In a sense, the one thing worse than being talked about is NOT being talked about.
One other point - given the Conservative dominance on this site, it's strange that I've seen virtually no comment on the possibility of the Conservative Party finishing third in a national election for the first time under universal suffrage and scoring (20-22% perhaps ?) their lowest ever share in a national poll.
Well, it's an extremely likely result of being in government and hordes blindly voting for a protest party without the most transient glance at what they stand for.
Con 3rd is the current expectation given the betting markets.
Poor another_richard. Whatever will he post about when George finally eliminates the deficit? It is certainly getting nearer every month as the good news in this bulletin shows.
So government borrowing in April being the highest ever is reducing the deficit in Comical Avery world:.
The inevitable consequence of increasingly basing the economy on low skilled consumer services with taxpayer subsidised housing and taxpayer subsidised wages.
Its not good for productivity and its not good for tax revenues.
In Wales it'll be a straight contest between Labour and UKIP for first place. Labour ought to win easily but I just wonder if something unexpected might happen.
LAB were odds-on FAV by miles in Hills' Wales market (now closed).
I don't think anyone expected the Tories to come first in Wales in 2009.
Looking at those net numbers, about 50,000 British people are leaving each year, and 150,000 Europeans and 150,000 non-Europeans are coming here. Given a population of 63m, that means every ten years 5% of the population switches from being of British backgrounds to being of foreign backgrounds. A crude calculation, but it's of that magnitude.
And the establishment wonders why people vote UKIP.
You can get 11/10 (Ladbrokes) that the GREENS will get a higher GB vote share than the LIB DEMS. More than double your cash in less than half a day. How can you say no?
Will be a close run thing but cannot see how 11/10 makes it a value bet
You can get 11/10 (Ladbrokes) that the GREENS will get a higher GB vote share than the LIB DEMS. More than double your cash in less than half a day. How can you say no?
Do you think SLAB voters will stay in bed today ? How's the weather up there. I took a 5er of the 1/4 on the SNP as one of my side bets, though that Yougov is a touch worrying ^_~
Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8 UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3 Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8 UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3 Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well
Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8 UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3 Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well
Indeed. An important detail which has not been much commented on. It might just make the 1 to 2% difference needed to get a UKIP MEP in Scotland.
I'm afraid Oborne's claim that Farage has suffered far worse treatment than Neil Kinnock at the hands of the media is not only absurd but seem steeped in selective memory. Take Twitter and the blogsphere out of the equation and Farage still has plenty of friends. Imagine the 1992 and 1997 electoral campaigns with Twitter.
The point is that Farage and UKIP have been recognised as an existential threat to both the Conservative and Labour parties in a way not seen since the emergence of the SDP. In a sense, the one thing worse than being talked about is NOT being talked about.
One other point - given the Conservative dominance on this site, it's strange that I've seen virtually no comment on the possibility of the Conservative Party finishing third in a national election for the first time under universal suffrage and scoring (20-22% perhaps ?) their lowest ever share in a national poll.
Well, it's an extremely likely result of being in government and hordes blindly voting for a protest party without the most transient glance at what they stand for.
Con 3rd is the current expectation given the betting markets.
Frankly, second would be a triumph. Beating Labour would make Dave odds on to be PM 15-20
(I hope you are right, but I seriously doubt that they can go THAT low.)
The Liberals only took 2.5% of the vote in the 1951GE, and they didn't have to deal with the unpopularity of being in government at the time.
That said, the average vote for the Lib Dems in the Parliamentary by-elections since 2010 has been 10%, and they've saved their deposit in just over half the seats they contested.
Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8 UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3 Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well
Indeed. An important detail which has not been much commented on. It might just make the 1 to 2% difference needed to get a UKIP MEP in Scotland.
Are there really many unionist separatists in the Bonnie land?
No sign of any activity at the polling station at St Brides just round the corner from my office; but it is central London so probably not many resident voters here during the day.
My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.
Anecdotally - Could be good for the Kippers ?
How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.
UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.
UKIP didn't even have any candidates in the locals around me, so I doubt it's a purple hotbed. If I were guessing, I'd be guessing these were Labour voters.
I cast a split local/Euro ticket in the colours of my preferred football team.
A betting query on the Lib Dem vs. Green vote match, is that the total for the Green Party of England and Wales + the Scottish Green Party, compared to the Liberal Democrats, or just the Green Party in England and Wales?
Not that anyone is expecting the Lib Dems to receive many votes in the Euros in Scotland, but it might make a difference.
My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.
Anecdotally - Could be good for the Kippers ?
How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.
UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.
UKIP didn't even have any candidates in the locals around me, so I doubt it's a purple hotbed. If I were guessing, I'd be guessing these were Labour voters.
I cast a split local/Euro ticket in the colours of my preferred football team.
You can get 11/10 (Ladbrokes) that the GREENS will get a higher GB vote share than the LIB DEMS. More than double your cash in less than half a day. How can you say no?
Do you think SLAB voters will stay in bed today ? How's the weather up there. I took a 5er of the 1/4 on the SNP as one of my side bets, though that Yougov is a touch worrying ^_~
1) Yes (for several reason, including point no. 2)
2) gale force winds in parts; heavy rain in parts (good for UKIP; bad for SLAB)
3) I took 100 quid on the SNP at Hills at 1/4.
4) Don't worry about that daft YouGov yesterday. They have got their Scottish weightings hopelessly wrong.
F1: Sutil makes a very good suggestion on driver weight. Limit of around 85kg, with the extra made up by ballast in the seat. Workable, simple, eminently sensible.
And the establishment wonders why people vote UKIP.
If Farage wins big today he will become very powerful, even if he has no Westminster MPs.
For many MPs in 2015, Farage will become the difference between them staying an MP or getting kicked out. If he likes you he endorses you and calls off the attack dogs by not running a candidate -and you get elected.
If he doesn't, he runs a candidate, sends in the blue rinse brigade and anything could happen in your beloved constituency, no matter how comfortable your majority.
He is already talking about running joint Con/UKIP candidates in 2015, and LabUKIP too. Sitting MPs will have to answer to him as much, if not much more, than their own party leader.
My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.
Anecdotally - Could be good for the Kippers ?
How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.
UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.
UKIP didn't even have any candidates in the locals around me, so I doubt it's a purple hotbed. If I were guessing, I'd be guessing these were Labour voters.
I cast a split local/Euro ticket in the colours of my preferred football team.
A betting query on the Lib Dem vs. Green vote match, is that the total for the Green Party of England and Wales + the Scottish Green Party, compared to the Liberal Democrats, or just the Green Party in England and Wales?
Not that anyone is expecting the Lib Dems to receive many votes in the Euros in Scotland, but it might make a difference.
Green Party of England and Wales + the Scottish Green Party
It is the whole of Great Britain (ie. UK minus NI).
My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.
Anecdotally - Could be good for the Kippers ?
How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.
UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.
UKIP didn't even have any candidates in the locals around me, so I doubt it's a purple hotbed. If I were guessing, I'd be guessing these were Labour voters.
I cast a split local/Euro ticket in the colours of my preferred football team.
And the establishment wonders why people vote UKIP.
If Farage wins big today he will become very powerful, even if he has no Westminster MPs.
For many MPs in 2015, Farage will become the difference between them staying an MP or getting kicked out. If he likes you he endorses you and calls off the attack dogs by not running a candidate -and you get elected.
If he doesn't, he runs a candidate, sends in the blue rinse brigade and anything could happen in your beloved constituency, no matter how comfortable your majority.
He is already talking about running joint Con/UKIP candidates in 2015, and LabUKIP too. Sitting MPs will have to answer to him as much, if not much more, than their own party leader.
Yes, when he has the rods of the five wizards and has purchased a pair of boots three sizes too large.
Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8 UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3 Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well
Indeed. An important detail which has not been much commented on. It might just make the 1 to 2% difference needed to get a UKIP MEP in Scotland.
Are there really many unionist separatists in the Bonnie land?
No, but they might need as little as 11% to get an MEP. (Personally I suspect that they will need more that 12%, but it is still a very small number of actual voters because turnout will be pathetic, as usual.)
Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8 UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3 Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well
Indeed. An important detail which has not been much commented on. It might just make the 1 to 2% difference needed to get a UKIP MEP in Scotland.
Are there really many unionist separatists in the Bonnie land?
No, but they might need as little as 11% to get an MEP. (Personally I suspect that they will need more that 12%, but it is still a very small number of actual voters because turnout will be pathetic, as usual.)
So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband. IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.
Frank, LAB at 3.4 (3.45 now btw) is not that incredible. Coral have the same price.
I suspect that LAB are going to have serious GOTV woes in parts of GB which are not also voting in council elections. Eg. Scotland.
Does any party do a GOTV operation for the Euros when there aren't simultaneous local elections? Most activists I've met who'd be willing to do GOTV activity at local or general elections are distinctly unmotivated to do likewise for the Europeans.
The Electoral Commission guidance to polling station staff is clear:
“Fold the ballot paper, then hand it to the voter unfolded. Ask them to re-fold it once they’ve marked their ballot paper in the polling booth.
Went to vote at lunchtime and my ballot paper was not folded at all. Saw 2 coppers walking up as I was leaving. Going to vote or investigating the shocking lack of folds?
So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband. IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.
Curious...
If the tories finish a really poor third,it is crisis time for Dave.
Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8 UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3 Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well
Indeed. An important detail which has not been much commented on. It might just make the 1 to 2% difference needed to get a UKIP MEP in Scotland.
Are there really many unionist separatists in the Bonnie land?
No, but they might need as little as 11% to get an MEP. (Personally I suspect that they will need more that 12%, but it is still a very small number of actual voters because turnout will be pathetic, as usual.)
I reckon they'll struggle to break 8% up there
Agreed. Which explains why Shadsy is still offering 11/8 that UKIP will win an MEP in Scotland.
An awful lot of Scottish voters who would not normally be arsed voting in Euro elections will turn out just to make sure UKIP are denied that MEP. It doesn't really matter which of the other parties they vote for, just as long as the UKIP vote is kept under about 11%.
So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband. IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.
Curious...
I'd expect Ed to beat Dave in a mid term, not by more than 4% UKIP are a phenomena that will not last, best to just take this one on the chin.
Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8 UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3 Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well
Indeed. An important detail which has not been much commented on. It might just make the 1 to 2% difference needed to get a UKIP MEP in Scotland.
Will the BNP and Britain First encourage any splits in the hard right vote? I suspect they may garner a few votes from the Union Jack frothers that have 'Bears' in their internet profiles.
Dull but dry in Glasgow, about half a dozen voters in my polling station at 9am.
My polling station was, surprisingly, packed when I voted at 11.45.
Anecdotally - Could be good for the Kippers ?
How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.
UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.
UKIP didn't even have any candidates in the locals around me, so I doubt it's a purple hotbed. If I were guessing, I'd be guessing these were Labour voters.
I cast a split local/Euro ticket in the colours of my preferred football team.
The Lib Dem result in Scotland is going to make Danny Alexander one very nervous man, God only knows how he is odds on !
One of the mysteries of the political betting world.
My theory is that Inverness was one of the first constituency markets to open, and tons of people with zilch local knowledge took an opinion on Alexander's chances of holding on.
Nobody who has ever knocked thousands of doors in Inverness housing estates (as I used to do regularly) would back Alexander at odds-on prices. It is quite simply barmy.
Ladbrokes' Scottish Euro market is still open (when will it close? 22:00?)
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8 UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1 Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3 Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
yes and no AIFE on the ballot paper in Scotland as well
Indeed. An important detail which has not been much commented on. It might just make the 1 to 2% difference needed to get a UKIP MEP in Scotland.
Will the BNP and Britain First encourage any splits in the hard right vote? I suspect they may garner a few votes from the Union Jack frothers that have 'Bears' in their internet profiles.
Dull but dry in Glasgow, about half a dozen voters in my polling station at 9am.
It is the East which is getting the rain and high winds. Especially NE.
The Union Jack frothers have lots of parties to vote for this time around. So, the more they split their vote the better.
Just think: If the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 had specified, as some suggested it should, 4-year terms rather than 5-year terms, we'd probably be holding a GE today.
Well the rain has stopped in the Land of the Prince Bishops. Perhaps we'll get a late surge to the polling stations - especially those located next door to a betting shop or branch of Greggs.
(I hope you are right, but I seriously doubt that they can go THAT low.)
The Liberals only took 2.5% of the vote in the 1951GE, and they didn't have to deal with the unpopularity of being in government at the time.
That said, the average vote for the Lib Dems in the Parliamentary by-elections since 2010 has been 10%, and they've saved their deposit in just over half the seats they contested.
I think they'll get at least 6% of the vote.
Opinium had the Lib Dems on five and six per cent in their last two polls, significantly lower than other pollsters.
FWIW, I don't think it'll be that bad either but I do think 7-8% will be about the mark and that may only be good enough for one seat.
The Liberal vote in the 50s understated their true support because they stood in so few seats (only 109 out of 625 in 1951). While we might guess that these were their stronger constituencies, so we can't just multiply up, even excluding N Ireland, it probably wouldn't be far out to suggest they'd have polled at least high single figures had they stood everywhere.
The Electoral Commission guidance to polling station staff is clear:
“Fold the ballot paper, then hand it to the voter unfolded. Ask them to re-fold it once they’ve marked their ballot paper in the polling booth.
Went to vote at lunchtime and my ballot paper was not folded at all. Saw 2 coppers walking up as I was leaving. Going to vote or investigating the shocking lack of folds?
My paper was mostly unfolded except for the bit at the bottom, thus hiding UKIP (and one other party, and I can't remember the other).
So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband. IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.
Curious...
If the tories finish a really poor third,it is crisis time for Dave.
Nope. Even the Conservative & Unionist Party are not daft enough to openly revolt against their prime minister just 4 months before the referendum on the dissolution of the Union.
Just think: If the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 had specified, as some suggested it should, 4-year terms rather than 5-year terms, we'd probably be holding a GE today.
Quite, and I'd be collecting on some very nice bets at 20/25-1 (placed during the coalition negotiations when the rumours of a fixed term first emerged). I did get some on 2015+ but 2014 would have been much nicer for my wallet.
I think Labour will utterly fail to get their vote out, low-20s. Cons will do slightly better, low to mid-20s, and UKIP will be 5% clear at around or just below 30%.
AIFE will pick up 2.5% or so, making the anti-EU vote a very strong one indeed.
The LibDems and the Greens will both be around the 7.5% mark, and I suspect (although I could be wrong) that the Libs will just edge it.
This is UKIP's election. Nigel Farage will be rightfully basking in triumph on Monday.
However, the extent to which this will carry over to 2015 remains an unknown. My guess is that more people lent their vote to Farage to register a protest than the Kippers would like to admit. And I think the better UKIP does this year, the more likely there is to be anti-UKIP tactical voting in 2015. The Conservative voters in Eastleigh may break far more strongly for the Libs than for UKIP next time around.
I hope UKIP get represented in 2015, but I'm not hopeful. I suspect Farage may come close, but we shall see... The best chance for the purples is if there is a seat that splits three or four way, allowing them to get in with 30-35% of the vote.
Britain First are a hilarious bunch of losers. "Invading" mosques and handing out bibles. Wearing military style uniforms and patrolling the streets. Using Lee Rugby's name to drum up votes. They are despicable. I hope we the British public have the sense not to allow one of these losers to represent our country in any shape or form.
Quite, and I'd be collecting on some very nice bets at 20/25-1 (placed during the coalition negotiations when the rumours of a fixed term first emerged). I did get some on 2015+ but 2014 would have been much nicer for my wallet.
I covered both very nicely (including a spread bet with SPIN). That was one of the easier political bets of the current parliament.
Very surprised, here in Chipping Norton, until today, the longest I had to wait in the last 12 years was for the person immediately in front of me to pick up their paper(s).
Aside from the checkout girl from the local coop I was the youngest there. The OAP vote was out in large numbers.
Then again we had three votes: town, district & euro.
Mr. Stodge, UKIP and Labour are expected to be 1-2, the Conservatives 3rd. It's priced in.
So you are quite relaxed about the Conservatives finishing third in a national election for the first time because, somehow, in some way, the UKIP flock will return to the Tory pen next May.
Whereas if the LDs finish fith, it's panic-driven enormo-haddock meltdown time.
Mr. Stodge, UKIP and Labour are expected to be 1-2, the Conservatives 3rd. It's priced in.
So you are quite relaxed about the Conservatives finishing third in a national election for the first time because, somehow, in some way, the UKIP flock will return to the Tory pen next May.
Whereas if the LDs finish fith, it's panic-driven enormo-haddock meltdown time.
However, the extent to which this will carry over to 2015 remains an unknown. My guess is that more people lent their vote to Farage to register a protest than the Kippers would like to admit. And I think the better UKIP does this year, the more likely there is to be anti-UKIP tactical voting in 2015. The Conservative voters in Eastleigh may break far more strongly for the Libs than for UKIP next time around.
I hope UKIP get represented in 2015, but I'm not hopeful. I suspect Farage may come close, but we shall see... The best chance for the purples is if there is a seat that splits three or four way, allowing them to get in with 30-35% of the vote.
One huge difference is that, in 2015, it will be unambiguously clear that a vote for UKIP is a vote against an EU referendum. Those who actually want us to leave the EU are being quite rational if they vote UKIP in the Euros today, but it will be an irrational thing to do in 2015.
Of course voters aren't always rational, but some are!
So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband. IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.
Curious...
If the tories finish a really poor third,it is crisis time for Dave.
Nope. Even the Conservative & Unionist Party are not daft enough to openly revolt against their prime minister just 4 months before the referendum on the dissolution of the Union.
Amroth Media, whose subsidiary, XPat Jobs advertises jobs online in 140 countries, has stepped in to right a UKIP wrong.
It has paid the Endurance Steel Orchestra its fee for playing, or at least attending, the Croydon Festival of UKIP diversity this week. It will no doubt save Winston Mckenzie the trouble of claiming a cheque is in the post.
So IF Labour finishes third, it's a crisis for Ed Miliband. IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.
Curious...
Sort of, though the devil is in the detail.
If Labour finished third, it is indeed a crisis for Ed. Labour should not be losing to UKIP and the Tories while they are the only major Westminster party in opposition, in an election which people routinely use to protest in and to send a message to the government.
If the Lib Dems finish fifth, behind the Greens, it's maybe not quite a crisis but it's very much a cause for concern. While it might not of itself be fatal to too many of their MPs, it would indicate that across great swathes of the country they're quite simply invisible and irrelevant.
Third for the Tories is to be expected, for much the reasons as per Labour above. The questions that matter are how far behind Labour and how big (or small) a share of the vote? Close to Labour would be ok; well back would be a problem. Likewise, mid-twenties wouldn't be a problem; teens most certainly would.
1. Imagine: UKIP 27%, Lab 26%. Cue UKIP triumph. But imagine UKIP 27%, Lab 28%. UKIP failure? Is place really more important than share?
I suppose this reflects the FPTP mindset but it's worth bearing in mind. Absolute thresholds might be more meaningful, such as 25% or 30% of the vote, or five million voters.
Other things to look out for would be the share of the vote that UKIP achieve in their strongest areas, such as the Eastern region and the South-West. If, say, they get close to 40% in those regions then that gets very interesting from a FPTP perspective.
Looking at those net numbers, about 50,000 British people are leaving each year, and 150,000 Europeans and 150,000 non-Europeans are coming here. Given a population of 63m, that means every ten years 5% of the population switches from being of British backgrounds to being of foreign backgrounds. A crude calculation, but it's of that magnitude.
And the establishment wonders why people vote UKIP.
At that rate it won't take long especially with the different age distribution.
MaxPB earlier : " I find that the Greens are just communists in sheep's (green) clothing" Precisely my impression after I had listened to their leader being interviewed on Radio 5 Live explaining various aspects of their policies prior to the 2010 GE. I simply couldn't believe what I was hearing - prior to which I had considered the Greens to be a well intentioned lot if a little over-obsessed environmentally, but I had no idea they had such far left policies.
Comments
The big picture does still show more immigration to Britain from outside the EU, though, and emigration from Britain is down on the years before the Credit Crunch - which particularly does not help Cameron with his pledge on net migration.
Lab 29% UKIP 29% Con 24% Green 6% Lib-Dem 5%
My Local Elections guesstimate:
Lab 34% Con 29% UKIP 16% Lib-Dem 11%
Ratio not that bad compared to population (or even sporting population)imo
Oh the fun of finessing betting for tiny stakes
You're avin a larf.
(I hope you are right, but I seriously doubt that they can go THAT low.)
Some people here are out of pocket if they go that high !
Been wondering the same for months. Is it possible that dyed in the wool Welsh labourites might rebel against third world public services at first world prices?
Maybe not. But they might not turn out for ed.
You can get 11/10 (Ladbrokes) that the GREENS will get a higher GB vote share than the LIB DEMS. More than double your cash in less than half a day. How can you say no?
2008 £1.9bn
2009 £7.0bn
2010 £7.3bn
2011 £9.9bn
2012 £8.3bn
2013 £9.5bn
2014 £11.5bn
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=L65P&dataset=pusf&table-id=PSF1
The inevitable consequence of increasingly basing the economy on low skilled consumer services with taxpayer subsidised housing and taxpayer subsidised wages.
Its not good for productivity and its not good for tax revenues.
And the establishment wonders why people vote UKIP.
2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 11/8
UKIP to win 0 seats 8/15
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
Labour to win more votes than SNP 2/1
I'm surprised that UKIP are still longer than EVS after all the ramping about UKIP winning a Scottish MEP, both here at PB and in the MSM. Looks like folk are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
I fear the worst.
How many normal people are going to get out of bed to vote for Mr Miliband's lot in the Euros.
UKIP voters alot more fired up I think.
That said, the average vote for the Lib Dems in the Parliamentary by-elections since 2010 has been 10%, and they've saved their deposit in just over half the seats they contested.
I think they'll get at least 6% of the vote.
I cast a split local/Euro ticket in the colours of my preferred football team.
Not that anyone is expecting the Lib Dems to receive many votes in the Euros in Scotland, but it might make a difference.
2) gale force winds in parts; heavy rain in parts (good for UKIP; bad for SLAB)
3) I took 100 quid on the SNP at Hills at 1/4.
4) Don't worry about that daft YouGov yesterday. They have got their Scottish weightings hopelessly wrong.
Edited extra bit: and still no running.
If Farage wins big today he will become very powerful, even if he has no Westminster MPs.
For many MPs in 2015, Farage will become the difference between them staying an MP or getting kicked out. If he likes you he endorses you and calls off the attack dogs by not running a candidate -and you get elected.
If he doesn't, he runs a candidate, sends in the blue rinse brigade and anything could happen in your beloved constituency, no matter how comfortable your majority.
He is already talking about running joint Con/UKIP candidates in 2015, and LabUKIP too. Sitting MPs will have to answer to him as much, if not much more, than their own party leader.
It is the whole of Great Britain (ie. UK minus NI).
IF the Liberal Democrats finish fifth, it's a crisis for Nick Clegg
IF the Conservatives finish third, it's nothing to be concerned about.
Curious...
An awful lot of Scottish voters who would not normally be arsed voting in Euro elections will turn out just to make sure UKIP are denied that MEP. It doesn't really matter which of the other parties they vote for, just as long as the UKIP vote is kept under about 11%.
UKIP are a phenomena that will not last, best to just take this one on the chin.
Dull but dry in Glasgow, about half a dozen voters in my polling station at 9am.
My theory is that Inverness was one of the first constituency markets to open, and tons of people with zilch local knowledge took an opinion on Alexander's chances of holding on.
Nobody who has ever knocked thousands of doors in Inverness housing estates (as I used to do regularly) would back Alexander at odds-on prices. It is quite simply barmy.
The Union Jack frothers have lots of parties to vote for this time around. So, the more they split their vote the better.
Then he'll be odds on.
Easy.
Swansea City's away kit is uncannily like kipper colours. Does this mean Michu's going to need a visa?
FWIW, I don't think it'll be that bad either but I do think 7-8% will be about the mark and that may only be good enough for one seat.
The Liberal vote in the 50s understated their true support because they stood in so few seats (only 109 out of 625 in 1951). While we might guess that these were their stronger constituencies, so we can't just multiply up, even excluding N Ireland, it probably wouldn't be far out to suggest they'd have polled at least high single figures had they stood everywhere.
I think Labour will utterly fail to get their vote out, low-20s. Cons will do slightly better, low to mid-20s, and UKIP will be 5% clear at around or just below 30%.
AIFE will pick up 2.5% or so, making the anti-EU vote a very strong one indeed.
The LibDems and the Greens will both be around the 7.5% mark, and I suspect (although I could be wrong) that the Libs will just edge it.
This is UKIP's election. Nigel Farage will be rightfully basking in triumph on Monday.
However, the extent to which this will carry over to 2015 remains an unknown. My guess is that more people lent their vote to Farage to register a protest than the Kippers would like to admit. And I think the better UKIP does this year, the more likely there is to be anti-UKIP tactical voting in 2015. The Conservative voters in Eastleigh may break far more strongly for the Libs than for UKIP next time around.
I hope UKIP get represented in 2015, but I'm not hopeful. I suspect Farage may come close, but we shall see... The best chance for the purples is if there is a seat that splits three or four way, allowing them to get in with 30-35% of the vote.
Very surprised, here in Chipping Norton, until today, the longest I had to wait in the last 12 years was for the person immediately in front of me to pick up their paper(s).
Aside from the checkout girl from the local coop I was the youngest there. The OAP vote was out in large numbers.
Then again we had three votes: town, district & euro.
Whereas if the LDs finish fith, it's panic-driven enormo-haddock meltdown time.
Ok....
Of course voters aren't always rational, but some are!
It has paid the Endurance Steel Orchestra its fee for playing, or at least attending, the Croydon Festival of UKIP diversity this week. It will no doubt save Winston Mckenzie the trouble of claiming a cheque is in the post.
See: http://bit.ly/1ksjqIw
Extremely cheap PR. £350 for nationwide publicity. Well done Amroth Media!
If Labour finished third, it is indeed a crisis for Ed. Labour should not be losing to UKIP and the Tories while they are the only major Westminster party in opposition, in an election which people routinely use to protest in and to send a message to the government.
If the Lib Dems finish fifth, behind the Greens, it's maybe not quite a crisis but it's very much a cause for concern. While it might not of itself be fatal to too many of their MPs, it would indicate that across great swathes of the country they're quite simply invisible and irrelevant.
Third for the Tories is to be expected, for much the reasons as per Labour above. The questions that matter are how far behind Labour and how big (or small) a share of the vote? Close to Labour would be ok; well back would be a problem. Likewise, mid-twenties wouldn't be a problem; teens most certainly would.
Other things to look out for would be the share of the vote that UKIP achieve in their strongest areas, such as the Eastern region and the South-West. If, say, they get close to 40% in those regions then that gets very interesting from a FPTP perspective.
Precisely my impression after I had listened to their leader being interviewed on Radio 5 Live explaining various aspects of their policies prior to the 2010 GE. I simply couldn't believe what I was hearing - prior to which I had considered the Greens to be a well intentioned lot if a little over-obsessed environmentally, but I had no idea they had such far left policies.