politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Keiran Pedley Ipsos-MORI podcast: Assessing the Cons
Comments
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Trump did campaign saying "I don't care how sick you are".LadyG said:57,000 new cases in the US in one day
A record
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPQLYrCyd3Y0 -
There is some evidence in Florida. "Pneumonia" deaths have ALLEGEDLY spikedPhilip_Thompson said:
What's happening with deaths? Keep hearing about surges in cases in the USA but not heard of surges in deaths yet.LadyG said:57,000 new cases in the US in one day
A record
https://twitter.com/NewsNodes/status/1279171876728836096?s=20
Or is there any evidence COVID deaths are getting buried as something else?
https://twitter.com/historyjudges/status/1279182055092305920?s=20
Otherwise, the theory is:
1. Deaths are a lagging indicator, wait a fortnight
2. Those catching the bug are much younger, fitter (beaches, protests)
3. Treatments are now much better, death is less likely0 -
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.0 -
Indeed. Like with the beaches, the parabolic images looked like crowds packed like sardines on the beach but overhead images of the same "crowds" showed people very spaced out.kle4 said:
Story of every major incident breaching lockdown so far perhaps.Philip_Thompson said:
Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.isam said:Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.
So guess which images were used all the time? Then people wonder why there's no surge in cases despite the "crowds" . . .2 -
Have noticed that myself.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Like with the beaches, the parabolic images looked like crowds packed like sardines on the beach but overhead images of the same "crowds" showed people very spaced out.kle4 said:
Story of every major incident breaching lockdown so far perhaps.Philip_Thompson said:
Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.isam said:Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.
So guess which images were used all the time? Then people wonder why there's no surge in cases despite the "crowds" . . .0 -
I hope you're right.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oh, I'm sure there will be lots of conspiracy theories on the internet. That doesn't matter - what matters is what the establishment (in the wide sense) does: judges, senators, House representatives, the Republican Party, the administration as a whole.Benpointer said:
I wish I could believe that Richard but I can see a situation where "fake votes" becomes the Trumpsters' clarion call.Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
What a boring few years we've had since 2015!0 -
With Fauci predicting "100,000 new cases a day", America might be the first country to reach genuine herd immunity
Which would be painful, but advantageous0 -
Good job we avoided the Chaos with Ed Milliband . . .Benpointer said:
I hope you're right.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oh, I'm sure there will be lots of conspiracy theories on the internet. That doesn't matter - what matters is what the establishment (in the wide sense) does: judges, senators, House representatives, the Republican Party, the administration as a whole.Benpointer said:
I wish I could believe that Richard but I can see a situation where "fake votes" becomes the Trumpsters' clarion call.Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
What a boring few years we've had since 2015!2 -
0
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Philip_Thompson said:
Good job we avoided the Chaos with Ed Milliband . . .Benpointer said:
I hope you're right.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oh, I'm sure there will be lots of conspiracy theories on the internet. That doesn't matter - what matters is what the establishment (in the wide sense) does: judges, senators, House representatives, the Republican Party, the administration as a whole.Benpointer said:
I wish I could believe that Richard but I can see a situation where "fake votes" becomes the Trumpsters' clarion call.Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
What a boring few years we've had since 2015!
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Did you see my reply to you earlier linking to Clinton's introduction of daily televised press briefings in 1995?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Have noticed that myself.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Like with the beaches, the parabolic images looked like crowds packed like sardines on the beach but overhead images of the same "crowds" showed people very spaced out.kle4 said:
Story of every major incident breaching lockdown so far perhaps.Philip_Thompson said:
Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.isam said:Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.
So guess which images were used all the time? Then people wonder why there's no surge in cases despite the "crowds" . . .
These briefings continued on a daily basis through Clinton, 'Dubya' and Obama but were abolished by Trump.
So what does our media call them? 'Trump style'.0 -
What are the redskins going to be renamed as ?
Washington Americans works I reckon.0 -
A losing Trumpsky successfully or even seriously contesting election result, is same order of probability as US Senate convicting him earlier this year = zero1
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US population is about 300 million.LadyG said:With Fauci predicting "100,000 new cases a day", America might be the first country to reach genuine herd immunity
Which would be painful, but advantageous0 -
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.0 -
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There is evidence the disease fades once it reaches 20% of the population.No_Offence_Alan said:
US population is about 300 million.LadyG said:With Fauci predicting "100,000 new cases a day", America might be the first country to reach genuine herd immunity
Which would be painful, but advantageous
America has 330m people. That means they need 65m to get it.
A week ago some estimated that 20m Americans already had the bug. So it's not an unreachable goal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-531860750 -
Too generic.Pulpstar said:What are the redskins going to be renamed as ?
Washington Americans works I reckon.
Sporing news suggest these option:
> Redtails
> Warriors
> Hogs or Redhogs
> Redhawks
> Senators (name of old baseball team)
> Renegades
> Defenders
> Sentinels
And something called Odds Shark gives following odds
Presidents +300
Generals +400
Lincolns +400
Americans +500
Kings +500
Memorials +500
Capitols +600
Veterans +600
Jeffersons +700
Roosevelts +700
Monuments +800
Arlingtons +1000
Personally think best of above are Redhawks and Presidents
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Trump does not own the SC. Which is why he keeps losing SC cases.Mexicanpete said:
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.0 -
Can anyone win reelection with half a million dead?LadyG said:
There is evidence the disease fades once it reaches 20% of the population.No_Offence_Alan said:
US population is about 300 million.LadyG said:With Fauci predicting "100,000 new cases a day", America might be the first country to reach genuine herd immunity
Which would be painful, but advantageous
America has 330m people. That means they need 65m to get it.
A week ago some estimated that 20m Americans already had the bug. So it's not an unreachable goal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-531860750 -
It will be carnage. I hope A&E is ready.Philip_Thompson said:
Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.isam said:Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.
What will be interesting is whether the silent hound wakes up and clears its throat.
I wouldn't criticise the government for a lot - this has been an unprecedented situation - but choosing to open pubs on a Saturday? Why? It is obvious what is going to happen.
Perhaps the pubs that Boris is familiar with aren't quite the same as a town centre pub on a Saturday night.0 -
Goodbye to the 2 metre rule in England, (apart from Leicester).0
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Going to be a very long summer for the plod.LadyG said:White City, London, tonight
https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20
Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets0 -
This incident in White City...I presume they will have to be renaming that place shortly, as clearly a racist name.1
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Why today?Flatlander said:
It will be carnage. I hope A&E is ready.Philip_Thompson said:
Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.isam said:Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.
What will be interesting is whether the silent hound wakes up and clears its throat.
I wouldn't criticise the government for a lot, but opening on a Saturday? Why?
Perhaps the pubs that Boris is familiar with aren't quite the same as a town centre pub on a Saturday night.
Happy 4th of July! It's Independence Day!0 -
No. Because while AG Barr is indeed his pick, doubt even he would risk consequences of conniving with a coup. As for DOJ and SCOTUS, these entities are NOT owned by Trumpsky. Most of the career lawyers who staff DOJ hate the SOB worse than yours truly, and SCOTUS majority including Chief Justice are NOT in his hip pocket. Doubt even Thomas, Kavanaugh & Alito would go along; Gorsuch surely would NOT along with Roberts.Mexicanpete said:
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.0 -
Not really. Compare them with their immediate neighbours and you can see just how terribly they have done. They have a death rate 5 times that of Denmark, 9 times that of Finland and 12 times that of Norway.LadyG said:
See my later comments.Alistair said:
Bizarre they should say that as their Covid ICU occupancy rate plunge. They seem to be over the worse of it by some distance.LadyG said:I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG
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Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
***
https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7?r=US&IR=T
I reckon the Swedish PM just HAS to say something like this, given the relatively high death toll. No politician could say "Wow we've done really good, only 5,000 corpses, top marks everyone"
So he sounds regretful and pensive.
As you say, in reality it is quite arguable that Sweden is doing OK, even quite good
Their infection rate per million people is 60% higher than the UKs.0 -
Makes sense to open on a Saturday for social distancing reasons.Flatlander said:
It will be carnage. I hope A&E is ready.Philip_Thompson said:
Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.isam said:Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.
What will be interesting is whether the silent hound wakes up and clears its throat.
I wouldn't criticise the government for a lot, but opening on a Saturday? Why?
Perhaps the pubs that Boris is familiar with aren't quite the same as a town centre pub on a Saturday night.
Open on a weekday or a Friday and you'd see everyone piling in just after 5pm. Open on a Saturday and people can come in throughout the day.
And yes the overwhelming majority of pubs across the entire country are not 'town centre carnage' bars. Town centre carnage bars are the slim, slim attention seeking minority.1 -
Thanks.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
No. Because while AG Barr is indeed his pick, doubt even he would risk consequences of conniving with a coup. As for DOJ and SCOTUS, these entities are NOT owned by Trumpsky. Most of the career lawyers who staff DOJ hate the SOB worse than yours truly, and SCOTUS majority including Chief Justice are NOT in his hip pocket. Doubt even Thomas, Kavanaugh & Alito would go along; Gorsuch surely would NOT along with Roberts.Mexicanpete said:
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.0 -
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No, the SC is very much the weakest part of the scenario, which relies on them throwing the issue to the House of Representatives.Mexicanpete said:
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.
Which is highly unlikely.0 -
Washington Wolverines ?
Tho it is the name of MI college team..0 -
Set your alarm for 6 am, and we'll see how it shakes down!Philip_Thompson said:
Makes sense to open on a Saturday for social distancing reasons.Flatlander said:
It will be carnage. I hope A&E is ready.Philip_Thompson said:
Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.isam said:Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.
What will be interesting is whether the silent hound wakes up and clears its throat.
I wouldn't criticise the government for a lot, but opening on a Saturday? Why?
Perhaps the pubs that Boris is familiar with aren't quite the same as a town centre pub on a Saturday night.
Open on a weekday or a Friday and you'd see everyone piling in just after 5pm. Open on a Saturday and people can come in throughout the day.
And yes the overwhelming majority of pubs across the entire country are not 'town centre carnage' bars. Town centre carnage bars are the slim, slim attention seeking minority.0 -
"pubs that Boris is familiar with"
Watering holes where patrons are expected - indeed encouraged - to eat the glassware.0 -
Perhaps I just live in the wrong neighbourhood.Philip_Thompson said:
Makes sense to open on a Saturday for social distancing reasons.Flatlander said:
It will be carnage. I hope A&E is ready.Philip_Thompson said:
Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.isam said:Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.
What will be interesting is whether the silent hound wakes up and clears its throat.
I wouldn't criticise the government for a lot, but opening on a Saturday? Why?
Perhaps the pubs that Boris is familiar with aren't quite the same as a town centre pub on a Saturday night.
Open on a weekday or a Friday and you'd see everyone piling in just after 5pm. Open on a Saturday and people can come in throughout the day.
And yes the overwhelming majority of pubs across the entire country are not 'town centre carnage' bars. Town centre carnage bars are the slim, slim attention seeking minority.
I thought Sunday might have been a better day, though.0 -
Not bad! BTW, their current major league baseball team is Washington Nationals, no doubt result of some serious market research.Pulpstar said:Washington Wolverines ?
Tho it is the name of MI college team..
Which in turn suggests Washington Federals, which in fact was name of US Football League (defunct) team.0 -
Time for bed. AG Barr are the producers of Irn Bru and the above post befuddled me for a minute.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
No. Because while AG Barr is indeed his pick, doubt even he would risk consequences of conniving with a coup. As for DOJ and SCOTUS, these entities are NOT owned by Trumpsky. Most of the career lawyers who staff DOJ hate the SOB worse than yours truly, and SCOTUS majority including Chief Justice are NOT in his hip pocket. Doubt even Thomas, Kavanaugh & Alito would go along; Gorsuch surely would NOT along with Roberts.Mexicanpete said:
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.0 -
Are you frequently befuddled? IF you frequently imbibe the Scot's tonic, no doubt!No_Offence_Alan said:
Time for bed. AG Barr are the producers of Irn Bru and the above post befuddled me for a minute.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
No. Because while AG Barr is indeed his pick, doubt even he would risk consequences of conniving with a coup. As for DOJ and SCOTUS, these entities are NOT owned by Trumpsky. Most of the career lawyers who staff DOJ hate the SOB worse than yours truly, and SCOTUS majority including Chief Justice are NOT in his hip pocket. Doubt even Thomas, Kavanaugh & Alito would go along; Gorsuch surely would NOT along with Roberts.Mexicanpete said:
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.0 -
An orange and acidic confection? Sounds more like Mr Trump than Bill Barr.No_Offence_Alan said:
Time for bed. AG Barr are the producers of Irn Bru and the above post befuddled me for a minute.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
No. Because while AG Barr is indeed his pick, doubt even he would risk consequences of conniving with a coup. As for DOJ and SCOTUS, these entities are NOT owned by Trumpsky. Most of the career lawyers who staff DOJ hate the SOB worse than yours truly, and SCOTUS majority including Chief Justice are NOT in his hip pocket. Doubt even Thomas, Kavanaugh & Alito would go along; Gorsuch surely would NOT along with Roberts.Mexicanpete said:
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.1 -
Well I’m off to the pub tomorrow. Dunno about you lot?1
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Lincoln..williamglenn said:
Can anyone win reelection with half a million dead?LadyG said:
There is evidence the disease fades once it reaches 20% of the population.No_Offence_Alan said:
US population is about 300 million.LadyG said:With Fauci predicting "100,000 new cases a day", America might be the first country to reach genuine herd immunity
Which would be painful, but advantageous
America has 330m people. That means they need 65m to get it.
A week ago some estimated that 20m Americans already had the bug. So it's not an unreachable goal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-531860750 -
No need, I'm quite convinced 99% will go off without an issue - and equally convinced the media and your good self will whinge and whinge and share Twitter videos of whichever odd ones out act like prats.Mexicanpete said:
Set your alarm for 6 am, and we'll see how it shakes down!Philip_Thompson said:
Makes sense to open on a Saturday for social distancing reasons.Flatlander said:
It will be carnage. I hope A&E is ready.Philip_Thompson said:
Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.isam said:Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.
What will be interesting is whether the silent hound wakes up and clears its throat.
I wouldn't criticise the government for a lot, but opening on a Saturday? Why?
Perhaps the pubs that Boris is familiar with aren't quite the same as a town centre pub on a Saturday night.
Open on a weekday or a Friday and you'd see everyone piling in just after 5pm. Open on a Saturday and people can come in throughout the day.
And yes the overwhelming majority of pubs across the entire country are not 'town centre carnage' bars. Town centre carnage bars are the slim, slim attention seeking minority.
Good luck to Miss Cyclefree Jr if she is opening up tomorrow and anyone else in the industry in the same position. That's what being allowed to open really means, not pissheads getting into fights.1 -
FDR tooTheuniondivvie said:
Lincoln..williamglenn said:
Can anyone win reelection with half a million dead?LadyG said:
There is evidence the disease fades once it reaches 20% of the population.No_Offence_Alan said:
US population is about 300 million.LadyG said:With Fauci predicting "100,000 new cases a day", America might be the first country to reach genuine herd immunity
Which would be painful, but advantageous
America has 330m people. That means they need 65m to get it.
A week ago some estimated that 20m Americans already had the bug. So it's not an unreachable goal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53186075
Maybe not actually ...0 -
A member of Les Republicains until this year, a clear sign Macron is reaching out to middle class centre right voters to take on Le Pen, who is mainly backed by blue collar voters, ahead of his 2022 re election battleAndy_JS said:France has a new prime minister.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Castex0 -
https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279174498336505858?s=19LadyG said:White City, London, tonight
https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20
Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets
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Romney should run for president in Utah, apparently the House of Representatives has to choose between the top 3 electoral college vote holders, it gets flipped to a near-50/50 House then he could come through as the compromise candidate.rottenborough said:This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.
https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975
There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.0 -
Few friends round, enjoy the pubAnabobazina said:Well I’m off to the pub tomorrow. Dunno about you lot?
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One of Ghislaine Maxwell's friends says she 'won't sell Prince Andrew out'...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/03/exclusive-ghislaine-maxwell-wont-sell-prince-andrew/0 -
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Enjoy it, sir!Anabobazina said:Well I’m off to the pub tomorrow. Dunno about you lot?
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This is why worrying about pub violence is absurd. People who want to get wasted will with or without pubs. Is it a wonder after months of pubs being shut we get reports of bloc parties every single weekend?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279174498336505858?s=19LadyG said:White City, London, tonight
https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20
Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets0 -
Funny how the media are really really really concerned about the prospect that this event could spread covid, but never worried about all those other bigger ones that went on for days and now in states that had massive rise in cases.
BBC News - Mount Rushmore: Trump to host 4 July event despite virus concerns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-532846071 -
How in God's name they were allowed to sit on the thrones is beyond me.williamglenn said:One of Ghislaine Maxwell's friends says she 'won't sell Prince Andrew out'...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/03/exclusive-ghislaine-maxwell-wont-sell-prince-andrew/0 -
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Thanks. The humid, muggy conditions imply a pint of lager. But it’s got to be a cask ale after all these weeks and months.RobD said:.
Enjoy it, sir!Anabobazina said:Well I’m off to the pub tomorrow. Dunno about you lot?
It’s amazing, isn’t it? The best things in life are either free or not very much money,
England is pubs.1 -
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Exactly right. Hoping tomorrow goes off well. It’s still the stuff of science fiction that England - England! - should close its pubs for three months. A script so farfetched no studio would ever accept it.Philip_Thompson said:
This is why worrying about pub violence is absurd. People who want to get wasted will with or without pubs. Is it a wonder after months of pubs being shut we get reports of bloc parties every single weekend?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279174498336505858?s=19LadyG said:White City, London, tonight
https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20
Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets0 -
Especially at a pub out in the country, in the high summer. Nothing beats it.Anabobazina said:
Thanks. The humid, muggy conditions imply a pint of lager. But it’s got to be a cask ale after all these weeks and months.RobD said:.
Enjoy it, sir!Anabobazina said:Well I’m off to the pub tomorrow. Dunno about you lot?
It’s amazing, isn’t it? The best things in life are either free or not very much money,
England is pubs.1 -
Cheers sir.Pulpstar said:
Few friends round, enjoy the pubAnabobazina said:Well I’m off to the pub tomorrow. Dunno about you lot?
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Which will only boost Trumpwilliamglenn said:Protests are going on at Mount Rushmore.
https://twitter.com/EEBormett/status/1279194435742502913
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1279197741676199939?s=200 -
I'm not aware of any bigger or even comparable events being organised by someone who is running to be President.FrancisUrquhart said:Funny how the media are really really really concerned about the prospect that this event could spread covid, but never worried about all those other bigger ones that went on for days and now in states that had massive rise in cases.
BBC News - Mount Rushmore: Trump to host 4 July event despite virus concerns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53284607
I don't think Joe Biden has been doing these style of events.0 -
Famous last words. You have NOT lived until prosecutors have you well and true by the short and curlies. And it's the toughest talkers who tend to squeal the loudest to save their own sorry asses.RobD said:
How in God's name they were allowed to sit on the thrones is beyond me.williamglenn said:One of Ghislaine Maxwell's friends says she 'won't sell Prince Andrew out'...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/03/exclusive-ghislaine-maxwell-wont-sell-prince-andrew/
But we shall see.0 -
Can you abdicate from a Dukedom? Asking for a friend.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Famous last words. You have NOT lived until prosecutors have you well and true by the short and curlies. And it's the toughest talkers who tend to squeal the loudest to save their own sorry asses.RobD said:
How in God's name they were allowed to sit on the thrones is beyond me.williamglenn said:One of Ghislaine Maxwell's friends says she 'won't sell Prince Andrew out'...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/03/exclusive-ghislaine-maxwell-wont-sell-prince-andrew/
But we shall see.0 -
The Gold Standard. Or maybe not.HYUFD said:0 -
You know i was obviously talking about BLM ones, that at every turn the media tried to claim no issues with covid, despite 10,000s of people huddled together screaming and shouting for hours on end inbetween hacking their guts up when the tear gas starts raining down.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not aware of any bigger or even comparable events being organised by someone who is running to be President.FrancisUrquhart said:Funny how the media are really really really concerned about the prospect that this event could spread covid, but never worried about all those other bigger ones that went on for days and now in states that had massive rise in cases.
BBC News - Mount Rushmore: Trump to host 4 July event despite virus concerns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53284607
I don't think Joe Biden has been doing these style of events.
And of course, putting NYC aside, the size and number of protests match the states seeing large increases in covid.
You can't have it both ways, some mass outdoor events, good, others bad. Its a massive double standard in their reporting.
You are either of the opinion outdoor events with no social distancing or are so low risk not to worry about them or that they are a risk.1 -
Based on quickie research, appears that it might require a Bill of Attainder, which is expressly forbidden by US constitution but apparently still good to go in UK. But my guess is, it would be possible otherwise IF the monarch so wishes, as part of crown perogative powers.RobD said:
Can you abdicate from a Dukedom? Asking for a friend.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Famous last words. You have NOT lived until prosecutors have you well and true by the short and curlies. And it's the toughest talkers who tend to squeal the loudest to save their own sorry asses.RobD said:
How in God's name they were allowed to sit on the thrones is beyond me.williamglenn said:One of Ghislaine Maxwell's friends says she 'won't sell Prince Andrew out'...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/03/exclusive-ghislaine-maxwell-wont-sell-prince-andrew/
But we shall see.0 -
Or maybe if those protestors get it no one cares they just consider it evolution in action?FrancisUrquhart said:
You know i was obviously talking about BLM ones, that at every turn the media tried to claim no issues with covid, despite 10,000s of people huddled together screaming and shouting for hours on end inbetween hacking their guts up when the tear gas starts raining down.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not aware of any bigger or even comparable events being organised by someone who is running to be President.FrancisUrquhart said:Funny how the media are really really really concerned about the prospect that this event could spread covid, but never worried about all those other bigger ones that went on for days and now in states that had massive rise in cases.
BBC News - Mount Rushmore: Trump to host 4 July event despite virus concerns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53284607
I don't think Joe Biden has been doing these style of events.
And of course, putting NYC aside, the size and number of protests match the states seeing large increases in covid.
You can't have it both ways, some mass outdoor events, good, others bad. Its a massive double standard in their reporting.
You are either of the opinion outdoor events with no social distancing or are so low risk not to worry about them or that they are a risk.0 -
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"Can you abdicate from a Dukedom? Asking for a friend."
Tell Andy to go fuck himself. THEN come clean - and take what you deserve like a man.0 -
From NY Post July 3, op ed by Elie Honig, former prosecutor, US Southern District of New York:
Maxwell is now in an extraordinarily tough spot. The conduct charged in the indictment -- including sexual exploitation and abuse of girls as young as 14 -- is abhorrent and likely will evoke zero sympathy from prosecutors, jury or judge. The evidence looks overwhelming including...Maxwell's own damning false statements made under oath during a 2016 deposition. Maxwell, who is 58 years old, faces multiple charges that carry maximum sentences totaling 35 years.
...Maxwell has three primary choices. First, she can fight the case. But the vast majority of federal cases -- well over 90% -- result in convictions...
Second, she can try to work out a plea deal with the SDNY where she admits guilt, does not testify against others, and receives a somewhat lower sentence than if she was convicted at trial. But if I was back at the SDNY, where I worked for eight years, I would have no interest in giving any plea deal to an alleged child predator like Maxwell without requiring that person's cooperation in bringing other possible co-conspirators to justice.
Which brings us to the third option: Maxwell could try to cooperate with the SDNY to save herself and minimize her potential sentence. The SDNY requires potential cooperators to come clean about everything they know -- every crime the cooperator herself has committed, plus any crimes committed by others. If Maxwell does cooperate successfully, she stands the best chance of getting herself a substantially reduced sentence.
And if Maxwell goes that cooperation route, then anyone else who participated in Epstein's sex trafficking ring should not sleep easy.
We do not yet know who else might be in the SDNY's sights, but prosecutors did drop a tantalizing clue by staffing the case out of the Office's Public Corruption Unit (as it did with the original case against Epstein). I did sex trafficking cases when I was with the SDNY, and I know that these cases typically would be handled by the Violent and Organized Crime Unit (which includes the Human Trafficking Coordinators), not the Public Corruption Unit -- unless the case carried potential to implicate public officials.
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@SeaShantyIrish2 you seem to have a strange obsession with this case.0
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It's potentially a big deal, depending who's in the bookRobD said:@SeaShantyIrish2 you seem to have a strange obsession with this case.
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No more than most. What got me started was raft of conspiracy theory based on speculation as opposed to research.
SO you do NOT think this is a big deal? The Queen's bouncing baby boy and other very prominent individuals, including former US prosecutor, potentially, allegedly, innocent-until-proven-guiltily, being criminally investigated as co-conspirator in child abuse & sex trafficking?
As far as royal family is concerned, nothing like it since Duke of Cumberland, brother of George IV & William IV and future King of Hanover, was accused of murdering his valet.
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In assessing likelihood of La Maxwell singing like a canary, methinks that Daily Telegraph would serve readers better by interviewing former NYSD prosecutors (BTW the one below was quoted from CNN, not NY Post- sorry) than the wretched woman's socialite pals. Just sayin'0
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Books, plural. PLUS Maxwell knows things - and names - that are not written downedmundintokyo said:
It's potentially a big deal, depending who's in the bookRobD said:@SeaShantyIrish2 you seem to have a strange obsession with this case.
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A 269-269 tie is an unusually high probability this year IMO. It happens if Biden picks up Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan, but fails to take Pennsylvania. Obviously it's still very unlikely but more likely than at previous elections.0
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Every time I see Bill Barr written down I think of Bill Burr, who’s someone very different, and much funnier.Mexicanpete said:
An orange and acidic confection? Sounds more like Mr Trump than Bill Barr.No_Offence_Alan said:
Time for bed. AG Barr are the producers of Irn Bru and the above post befuddled me for a minute.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
No. Because while AG Barr is indeed his pick, doubt even he would risk consequences of conniving with a coup. As for DOJ and SCOTUS, these entities are NOT owned by Trumpsky. Most of the career lawyers who staff DOJ hate the SOB worse than yours truly, and SCOTUS majority including Chief Justice are NOT in his hip pocket. Doubt even Thomas, Kavanaugh & Alito would go along; Gorsuch surely would NOT along with Roberts.Mexicanpete said:
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.0 -
One last (for now) re: La Maxwell & etc.
Much as it saddens yours truly, reckon the real target of current investigation is not His Foul Lowness. Nor is it a former or current president.
Instead, the biggest fish for prosecutors may be Alexander Acosta, former US District Attorney for Southern District of Florida:
Miami Herald (which broke original Epstein story) July 3
“If I was Alexander Acosta today, I would be having a very lousy weekend,’’ said Frank Figliuzzi, a former FBI assistant director.
“This case is not over. I’ve supervised these kinds of cases in big cities and I’ve never seen public corruption prosecutors involved and if they are still in it, there is a reason for it.’’
Acosta, who resigned last year shortly after Epstein’s arrest, would be someone that public corruption prosecutors would be looking at, he said.
“Because of the lenient posture that Acosta took with Epstein, it begs the question as to why he chose to go lightly on Epstein, and that question, and at what level and for whom he was doing this for — is likely the subject matter of investigation.’’
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Just one more - note last para "for whom he (Acosta) was doing this for".
Epstein? OR somebody else? Note he was a Republican appointee (by Cheney--Bush administration) as US attorney. And was appointed US Labor Secretary by . . . guess who.0 -
Bill Bar(r) = new MAGA candy treat made from slave trade chocolate, rancid peanut butter and recycled chicken shit.Sandpit said:
Every time I see Bill Barr written down I think of Bill Burr, who’s someone very different, and much funnier.Mexicanpete said:
An orange and acidic confection? Sounds more like Mr Trump than Bill Barr.No_Offence_Alan said:
Time for bed. AG Barr are the producers of Irn Bru and the above post befuddled me for a minute.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
No. Because while AG Barr is indeed his pick, doubt even he would risk consequences of conniving with a coup. As for DOJ and SCOTUS, these entities are NOT owned by Trumpsky. Most of the career lawyers who staff DOJ hate the SOB worse than yours truly, and SCOTUS majority including Chief Justice are NOT in his hip pocket. Doubt even Thomas, Kavanaugh & Alito would go along; Gorsuch surely would NOT along with Roberts.Mexicanpete said:
You know much more than I do regarding the mechanics of the Electoral College. However doesn't the fact that Trump owns the DOJ, the AG and the SC worry you?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
President has zilch to do with the actual election by the Electoral College. He doe not count the votes, that is done by joint session of Congress with Vice President presiding - Nixon in 1961, Gore in 2001, Biden in 2017Mexicanpete said:
True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For once great minds think alike!Richard_Nabavi said:All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.
BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.0 -
NEWS FLASH - Kimberly Guilfoyle, fundraiser for Trump campaign and Donald Trump, Jr's girlfriend, has tested positive for COVID-19 after traveling to South Dakota - NOT in Air Force One - to attend the President's rally & fireworks (both kinds). She is third and latest person in potential proximity to Trumpsky testing positive. I truly feel sorry for her, wouldn't wish the Crud on ANYONE.0
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OK, gonna turn in early - it's not yet 8pm my location - but one question (for PB bookies)
What are the odds that President Trump will campaign in Mississippi AGAINST referendum to remove the Confederate battle flag from the state flag?
Personally would reckon slightly less than 50-50 mainly because even Trumpsky must realize campaigning in MS is waste of time - he got 99.46% of winning it, and IF he doesn't, well, it won't matter. Cause in that case, states he carries will b be countable on one hand.0 -
"The world is not experiencing a second wave: it never got over the first"
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/07/04/covid-19-is-here-to-stay-people-will-have-to-adapt0 -
Same as Spanish Inflluenza pandemic, or close enough.Andy_JS said:"The world is not experiencing a second wave: it never got over the first"
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/07/04/covid-19-is-here-to-stay-people-will-have-to-adapt1 -
Have been lying in bed listening to the Ipsos Mori Podcast posted by Mike, as well as another focusing on Keir Starmer & Labour Party. Very informative and of definite interest to most PBers.,0
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Priti Patel called for new lottery rules after meeting with Richard Desmond
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priti-patel-called-for-new-lottery-rules-after-meeting-with-richard-desmond-gfv9shcsh0 -
No. It will not help his reelection chances and because Trump is a New Yorker (well, Florida maybe now) it is unlikely he feels any great personal stake in this issue. (As an aside, I'd imagine education publishers will see any change in state flags as a chance to sell updated charts to American schools.)SeaShantyIrish2 said:OK, gonna turn in early - it's not yet 8pm my location - but one question (for PB bookies)
What are the odds that President Trump will campaign in Mississippi AGAINST referendum to remove the Confederate battle flag from the state flag?
Personally would reckon slightly less than 50-50 mainly because even Trumpsky must realize campaigning in MS is waste of time - he got 99.46% of winning it, and IF he doesn't, well, it won't matter. Cause in that case, states he carries will b be countable on one hand.0 -
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Charities 'still waiting on £100m raised by Captain Tom Moore and Clap for Carers'
Cash raised by Captain Tom Moore and Clap for Carers has not made its way to the good causes it was supposed to help, it is claimed.
Charities claim NHS Charities Together has denied access to 80% of the money raised by the public to help the NHS get through the coronavirus crisis.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/charities-still-waiting-100m-raised-22297975.amp
This is what happens when you don’t fund healthcare properly through general taxation.0 -
Yes, typing error. Although he wasn’t exactly a LIberal in the 1923 election.justin124 said:
A minor point of correction. In 1922 Churchill was actually defeated at Dundee as a Coalition Liberal. He stood the following year as Liberal candidate for Leicester - and lost again.ydoethur said:
Sorry Stodge, but that comment on Churchill is still utter bollocks. Churchill was never a Liberal Unionist, to start with. He stood as an avowed Conservative in Oldham, before defecting to the Liberals in 1904.stodge said:.I will confess to a degree of overreach on the question of Unionism. Joseph Chamberlain opposed Irish Home Rule and that was the main reason he split from Gladstone and the Liberals in the mid 1880s and of course Churchill's opposition to any change in India's political status was a big part of his journey from the Liberals to the Conservatives.
Secondly, he left the Liberals long before any issues with India came to the fore. He broke with Asquith over WW1 and Lloyd George over Labour. Although he stood as a candidate in Leicester in 1922 with Liberal backing, he had effectively abandoned the party and by 1924 he was standing as an Independent with Unionist backing in Windsor, as an anti-Labour candidate. He was then appointed Chancellor and rejoined the Tories the following year. His ‘move away’ from Liberalism was due to his gradual realisation that Liberal economic theory had failed, and by 1929 he was willing to consider tariffs. It wasn’t until 1930-31 that his increasingly shrill and hysterical statements about Gandhi led Baldwin to conclude he had lost his mind and exclude him from the inner circle. It was after the end of his journey, not a big part of it.
As for Cummings being a radical, if a nihilist is a radical, he’s radical. But really he’s just a man of no sense and great arrogance failing spectacularly at anything more complex than empty sloganising.
As I said yesterday, it’s lovely to see people taking an interest in history, but a little research might have helped here.0 -
Trumps stake would be in rallying the base (in more ways than one) of his base by wrapping himself in the Confederate flag. After all, it's a symbol for big swath Old America, White America, Rural America (popular or at least seen in many rural areas west of the Mississippi River and north of the Mason-Dixon line. All part of his double-down strategy.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No. It will not help his reelection chances and because Trump is a New Yorker (well, Florida maybe now) it is unlikely he feels any great personal stake in this issue. (As an aside, I'd imagine education publishers will see any change in state flags as a chance to sell updated charts to American schools.)SeaShantyIrish2 said:OK, gonna turn in early - it's not yet 8pm my location - but one question (for PB bookies)
What are the odds that President Trump will campaign in Mississippi AGAINST referendum to remove the Confederate battle flag from the state flag?
Personally would reckon slightly less than 50-50 mainly because even Trumpsky must realize campaigning in MS is waste of time - he got 99.46% of winning it, and IF he doesn't, well, it won't matter. Cause in that case, states he carries will b be countable on one hand.0 -
Anyone fancy a pint or 14?0
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At least it has NOT taken a one-way trip to Lagos or St Petersburg (Russia, not Florida) like large chunks of unemployment disbursements in WA and other US states during the pandemic.StuartDickson said:Charities 'still waiting on £100m raised by Captain Tom Moore and Clap for Carers'
Cash raised by Captain Tom Moore and Clap for Carers has not made its way to the good causes it was supposed to help, it is claimed.
Charities claim NHS Charities Together has denied access to 80% of the money raised by the public to help the NHS get through the coronavirus crisis.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/charities-still-waiting-100m-raised-22297975.amp
This is what happens when you don’t fund healthcare properly through general taxation.0 -
Clap for Carers - truly a great cause, but phrase open to a problematic & most unkind interpretation.
Food for thought for PBers over-stimulated by "gang-bangers".0
