politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Scoping the damage of the Cummings road trip and Johnson’s dec
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To much unseemly self touching on here.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.0 -
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Yup - twas ever thus.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.
Civil disorder + Given crime > Given Crime
is the maths.
Personally, I find it quite easy to save my crimes for times of social peace.0 -
Yes, the sentence will be appealed and, in my view, almost certainly that appeal will be granted. But the conviction will remain on his record and rightly so.RobD said:
Isn't appealing a sentence a thing?DavidL said:1 -
Oh dear. I sense some vacuous "rah rah" bluster coming on.williamglenn said:1 -
Yeah, she's very rarely correct about anything.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/12725080825984327701 -
I wonder if they'll have virtual priests and hapless pedestrians trying to cross the road that they can gob at?
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1272463520723095554?s=200 -
I am not an English lawyer but in Scotland it would have been possible for a relatively minor offence like this to be diverted into a Fiscal fine which, if you pay it, doesn't amount to a conviction. Once the decision is made to prosecute, however, there must either be an acquittal or a conviction.ydoethur said:
Couldn't it be a civil offence rather than a crime though? The two do have a significant impact on his future. e.g. if his job requires enhanced DBS clearance.DavidL said:
You're the lawyer and I'm not, but that was my thought.
In this case, AIUI, the offender gave himself up and pleaded guilty at the first opportunity. These are both strong mitigatory factors. Unless he had done time before there was also a statutory presumption against imprisonment. I'm pretty sure all of this applies in England as well but no doubt someone will put me right if I am wrong.0 -
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.0 -
In truth they were all mistakesFlatlander said:
3,000 or so supporters came over from Madrid for a single day.Peter_the_Punter said:
Quite a few decisions are looking a bit rough in retrospect. The Cheltenham Festival appears to have been a istake and as for Liverpool v A Madrid......FrancisUrquhart said:
Iran's decision to open the mosques like normal was incredible decision.LostPassword said:A Ramadan wave of infections and death from the Covid is now evident in many countries: Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Iraq.
Meanwhile, 200,000 people were returning from a holiday in Spain every day for about a fortnight.
60,000 were at Cheltenham
Meanwhile 5,000,000 people were using the tube.
It was the late lockdown that was the problem, not specific events that were allowed before it was brought in.
Wouldn't mandatory mask wearing on public transport have been more useful 3 months ago?
Wouldn't checking on arrivals from virus hot spots have been more useful 3 months ago?
The government's approach from the start has been just like Boris himself, lazy, late, half-arsed., lack of clear focus, loads of waffle.
Not that it's all the government's fault, when we are now advised to wear masks/face coverings in shops etc where social distancing is not possible 80% of the great British public can't even be arsed to do that much.
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His recipe for Chlorine Chicken, perhaps.kinabalu said:
Oh dear. I sense some vacuous "rah rah" bluster coming on.williamglenn said:1 -
In England it's a crime, not a civil matter.DavidL said:
I am not an English lawyer but in Scotland it would have been possible for a relatively minor offence like this to be diverted into a Fiscal fine which, if you pay it, doesn't amount to a conviction. Once the decision is made to prosecute, however, there must either be an acquittal or a conviction.ydoethur said:
Couldn't it be a civil offence rather than a crime though? The two do have a significant impact on his future. e.g. if his job requires enhanced DBS clearance.DavidL said:
You're the lawyer and I'm not, but that was my thought.
In this case, AIUI, the offender gave himself up and pleaded guilty at the first opportunity. These are both strong mitigatory factors. Unless he had done time before there was also a statutory presumption against imprisonment. I'm pretty sure all of this applies in England as well but no doubt someone will put me right if I am wrong.
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BiB - That would have been a de facto work from home directive; not necessarily a bad thing of course.OllyT said:
In truth they were all mistakesFlatlander said:
3,000 or so supporters came over from Madrid for a single day.Peter_the_Punter said:
Quite a few decisions are looking a bit rough in retrospect. The Cheltenham Festival appears to have been a istake and as for Liverpool v A Madrid......FrancisUrquhart said:
Iran's decision to open the mosques like normal was incredible decision.LostPassword said:A Ramadan wave of infections and death from the Covid is now evident in many countries: Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Iraq.
Meanwhile, 200,000 people were returning from a holiday in Spain every day for about a fortnight.
60,000 were at Cheltenham
Meanwhile 5,000,000 people were using the tube.
It was the late lockdown that was the problem, not specific events that were allowed before it was brought in.
Wouldn't mandatory mask wearing on public transport have been more useful 3 months ago?
Wouldn't checking on arrivals from virus hot spots have been more useful 3 months ago?
The government's approach from the start has been just like Boris himself, lazy, late, half-arsed., lack of clear focus, loads of waffle.
Not that it's all the government's fault, when we are now advised to wear masks/face coverings in shops etc where social distancing is not possible 80% of the great British public can't even be arsed to do that much.0 -
Not given current voting trends, populism is more conservative socially, left-wing economically at the momentBluestBlue said:
That's fine, it just means that the world's future is likely to be hyper-liberal socially, and hyper-conservative economically. So we'll both be pissed off with it, just in different ways.kinabalu said:
We'll cross that bridge when we (don't) come to it. In the meantime, I am not going to get upset about it becoming more difficult to spread racist propaganda. Sorry, but that's how I feel about this. Slippery slope, go and have a natter with yourself in the corner, I'm living in the here and now.BluestBlue said:
You know the owners of these gigantic media companies are billionaires, and perhaps due to become trillionaires in the not-too-distant future?kinabalu said:
Draining the swamp.eadric said:OK guys, do we all remember the Google Churchill kerfuffle? We should do, it was yesterday.
Here's another one, which is even weirder
Go to Youtube, and select a random video. Doesn't matter which one. Add this comment underneath:
"Black Lives Matter violence"
Within 30 seconds or so, it will be automatically deleted. I'm not joking. I did it last night, and I did it this morning: same result both times.
Now I can understand why Youtube might censor certain racist terms. But if you want to comment that this is "Black Lives Matter violence", which is not racist, just an opinion, you cannot.
Same goes for things like "this is black violence", or "what about black violence". They just disappear.
YouTube is preventing commenters from simply expressing lawful opinions
What happens if a popular movement for the redistribution of wealth rises up and gets itself completely censored by said media billionaires? Because you can sure they'll justify it as 'draining the swamp' too...0 -
Hang on. You write a post and I agree with it. Then Topping comes along and says I'm having a shocker for agreeing (with your post). Then you reply "Yup" to the aforementioned Topping.Malmesbury said:
Yup - twas ever thus.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.
Civil disorder + Given crime > Given Crime
is the maths.
Personally, I find it quite easy to save my crimes for times of social peace.
That's gaslighting and bullying. You two are gaslighting and bullying me.
Mods!0 -
Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.kinabalu said:
Oh dear. I sense some vacuous "rah rah" bluster coming on.williamglenn said:1 -
Oops I accidentally added a hundred to the Electoral College.kinabalu said:
If it's 330/328 there will be some raised eyebrows.Philip_Thompson said:
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.DavidL said:
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.TimT said:
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.contrarian said:
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.Nigelb said:‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Well, it's a view.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.0 -
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1272518252791508994FF43 said:Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
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I see you've just stumbled upon Trump's master plan for re-election...Philip_Thompson said:
Oops I accidentally added a hundred to the Electoral College.kinabalu said:
If it's 330/328 there will be some raised eyebrows.Philip_Thompson said:
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.DavidL said:
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.TimT said:
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.contrarian said:
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.Nigelb said:‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Well, it's a view.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.1 -
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.0 -
I can well imagine. I'm afraid I'm detecting a considerable appetite for cracking heads and other draconian punishments from some on here.Theuniondivvie said:
To much unseemly self touching on here.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.0 -
Depends on the accused and his advisers. If he wants to get over this and become normal he will do the time and get over it. If he is or becomes part of an organised grievance campaign on behalf of right wing nutters he can appeal against sentence and have a field day with the media for some time; it is occasionally possible to appeal conviction when you have pleaded guilty but very unlikely in this case.DavidL said:
Yes, the sentence will be appealed and, in my view, almost certainly that appeal will be granted. But the conviction will remain on his record and rightly so.RobD said:
Isn't appealing a sentence a thing?DavidL said:
SFAICS his defence was being a drunken slob rather than disrespecting a brave and heroic police officer. Neither is very brilliant but if I had to choose between these identities, being a drunken slob is a great deal easier for people to forgive.
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As I said, you're having a shocker. Not your best day on here. We're all allowed them.kinabalu said:
Hang on. You write a post and I agree with it. Then Topping comes along and says I'm having a shocker for agreeing (with your post). Then you reply "Yup" to the aforementioned Topping.Malmesbury said:
Yup - twas ever thus.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.
Civil disorder + Given crime > Given Crime
is the maths.
Personally, I find it quite easy to save my crimes for times of social peace.
That's gaslighting and bullying. You two are gaslighting and bullying me.
Mods!1 -
Is pineapple worse on gammon or on pizza?Theuniondivvie said:
GWA's Straight Outta Thurrock will be the soundtrack of late stage Brexit.Dura_Ace said:
Gammons should reclaim the term to rob it of its pejorative heft. #gammon4life #bp140over90andproudStark_Dawning said:
A friend of mine - white, middle-aged and no Lefty - happily refers to some of the more stick-in-the-mud characters at his workplace as 'Gammons'.0 -
You're always seeking out the worst in people. I try not to do that.BluestBlue said:
She's clearly concerned because if urinating next to a monument merits 14 days in prison, how much will the people who actually destroyed or vandalized a monument get? Or all the other malefactors the police will identify via CCTV after the fact?kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not need.
Answers on the back of a postcard...0 -
Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339222 -
Heartening, if a touch counting unhatched chicken-ish.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1272506671194144769?s=200 -
If I had to guess, they are using the same list as for a country of birth question that's asked on some other questionnaire.williamglenn said:Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339223 -
Really missing grabcoque today, guys.
Nuthin but a G thang.Theuniondivvie said:
GWA's Straight Outta Thurrock will be the soundtrack of late stage Brexit.Dura_Ace said:
Gammons should reclaim the term to rob it of its pejorative heft. #gammon4life #bp140over90andproudStark_Dawning said:
A friend of mine - white, middle-aged and no Lefty - happily refers to some of the more stick-in-the-mud characters at his workplace as 'Gammons'.0 -
Maybe they just to make ex-Labour leaders smile?williamglenn said:Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339222 -
Yeah, it probably has Soviet Union on there too.tlg86 said:
If I had to guess, they are using the same list as for a country of birth question that's asked on some other questionnaire.williamglenn said:Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339220 -
They probably have Irish Free State on it too.tlg86 said:
If I had to guess, they are using the same list as for a country of birth question that's asked on some other questionnaire.williamglenn said:Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339220 -
Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
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You can take that as red.RobD said:
Yeah, it probably has Soviet Union on there too.tlg86 said:
If I had to guess, they are using the same list as for a country of birth question that's asked on some other questionnaire.williamglenn said:Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339222 -
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.0 -
A poll which did not mention ending free movement at all which was the main reason the Red Wall voted for Brexit and for Boris is not worth the paper it is written inScott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1272518252791508994FF43 said:Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
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Very leading questions from an anti-Brexit campaign group gets the answers it wants. What a shocker!Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1272518252791508994FF43 said:Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
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You had an interesting disquisition on personal hatred the other day which might suggest you don't always succeed in that ambition.kinabalu said:
You're always seeking out the worst in people. I try not to do that.BluestBlue said:
She's clearly concerned because if urinating next to a monument merits 14 days in prison, how much will the people who actually destroyed or vandalized a monument get? Or all the other malefactors the police will identify via CCTV after the fact?kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not need.
Answers on the back of a postcard...
Anyway, I don't quite see it as 'seeking out the worst' in Sarkar. She is both deeply political and self-interested - neither of which is an intrinsically disreputable quality - and she doesn't want the more, er, enthusiastic members of the far left to receive a free diet of porridge as a result of their protesting activities. Hence her extraordinary and uncharacteristic leniency towards Mr. Micturator.
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Lawyers, of course, add value to every discussion, although the hourly rate can vary a bit.kinabalu said:
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.0 -
Oh please, that's an utterly horrendous thought.Theuniondivvie said:I wonder if they'll have virtual priests and hapless pedestrians trying to cross the road that they can gob at?
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1272463520723095554?s=20
Though it does inspire thoughts of a strategy game like Railroad, with lots of town maps of eastern Scottish burghs.0 -
Yes. And then another 20.Philip_Thompson said:
Oops I accidentally added a hundred to the Electoral College.kinabalu said:
If it's 330/328 there will be some raised eyebrows.Philip_Thompson said:
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.DavidL said:
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.TimT said:
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.contrarian said:
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.Nigelb said:‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Well, it's a view.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.
1 -
I agree. Good for her.ydoethur said:
Ash Sarkar goes up very slightly in my estimation.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Admittedly, that's from an extremely low base.
I will assume she is making a genuine point out of principle, and not just worrying about how long her mates are going to be in the slammer.0 -
Might be the Google Suggest widget or something - this grabs data from a database of countries in their knowledge graph, which is in turn sourced from Wikipedia and various other databases, and if you ask it for countries I expect it will also include ex-countries.williamglenn said:Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339220 -
He's like Custer!Theuniondivvie said:Heartening, if a touch counting unhatched chicken-ish.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1272506671194144769?s=200 -
The earlier suggestion that it's from a list used for a country of birth question seems the most plausible.edmundintokyo said:
Might be the Google Suggest widget or something - this grabs data from a database of countries in their knowledge graph, which is in turn sourced from Wikipedia and various other databases, and if you ask it for countries I expect it will also include ex-countries.williamglenn said:Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339220 -
Did they say which states they think are swing states?Theuniondivvie said:Heartening, if a touch counting unhatched chicken-ish.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1272506671194144769?s=20
0 -
I think we have seen "peak populism". There will probably be a smaller second wave, but it will eventually fizzle out. People will look back and wonder how it all happened.HYUFD said:
Not given current voting trends, populism is more conservative socially, left-wing economically at the momentBluestBlue said:
That's fine, it just means that the world's future is likely to be hyper-liberal socially, and hyper-conservative economically. So we'll both be pissed off with it, just in different ways.kinabalu said:
We'll cross that bridge when we (don't) come to it. In the meantime, I am not going to get upset about it becoming more difficult to spread racist propaganda. Sorry, but that's how I feel about this. Slippery slope, go and have a natter with yourself in the corner, I'm living in the here and now.BluestBlue said:
You know the owners of these gigantic media companies are billionaires, and perhaps due to become trillionaires in the not-too-distant future?kinabalu said:
Draining the swamp.eadric said:OK guys, do we all remember the Google Churchill kerfuffle? We should do, it was yesterday.
Here's another one, which is even weirder
Go to Youtube, and select a random video. Doesn't matter which one. Add this comment underneath:
"Black Lives Matter violence"
Within 30 seconds or so, it will be automatically deleted. I'm not joking. I did it last night, and I did it this morning: same result both times.
Now I can understand why Youtube might censor certain racist terms. But if you want to comment that this is "Black Lives Matter violence", which is not racist, just an opinion, you cannot.
Same goes for things like "this is black violence", or "what about black violence". They just disappear.
YouTube is preventing commenters from simply expressing lawful opinions
What happens if a popular movement for the redistribution of wealth rises up and gets itself completely censored by said media billionaires? Because you can sure they'll justify it as 'draining the swamp' too...1 -
Lawyers, of course, add remove value to from every discussion, although the hourly rate can vary a bit.ydoethur said:
Lawyers, of course, add value to every discussion, although the hourly rate can vary a bit.kinabalu said:
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.
Fixed that for you. That will be £845.23 + VAT3 -
Not in this instance. And not you.kinabalu said:
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.
Otherwise yes.0 -
On their site they give them as FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, WI.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Did they say which states they think are swing states?Theuniondivvie said:Heartening, if a touch counting unhatched chicken-ish.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1272506671194144769?s=20
https://abacusdata.ca/biden_trump_2020_abacus-data/0 -
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
0 -
I would never use the phrase 'gammon', but to me it evokes a pub-bore, who spends most of their time in a sort of apoplectic but fundamentally ineffectual rage where life would be great if only other people could see how stupid they were being. So whilst gammons would probably always be white, and male, to me it doesn't really connote a political persuasion. Since Brexit, we've had a lot of people who meet that gammon qualification on the left-wing side of the argument. Possibly even some on PB. 0
-
It is quite arguable that BLM is populism.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think we have seen "peak populism". There will probably be a smaller second wave, but it will eventually fizzle out. People will look back and wonder how it all happened.HYUFD said:
Not given current voting trends, populism is more conservative socially, left-wing economically at the momentBluestBlue said:
That's fine, it just means that the world's future is likely to be hyper-liberal socially, and hyper-conservative economically. So we'll both be pissed off with it, just in different ways.kinabalu said:
We'll cross that bridge when we (don't) come to it. In the meantime, I am not going to get upset about it becoming more difficult to spread racist propaganda. Sorry, but that's how I feel about this. Slippery slope, go and have a natter with yourself in the corner, I'm living in the here and now.BluestBlue said:
You know the owners of these gigantic media companies are billionaires, and perhaps due to become trillionaires in the not-too-distant future?kinabalu said:
Draining the swamp.eadric said:OK guys, do we all remember the Google Churchill kerfuffle? We should do, it was yesterday.
Here's another one, which is even weirder
Go to Youtube, and select a random video. Doesn't matter which one. Add this comment underneath:
"Black Lives Matter violence"
Within 30 seconds or so, it will be automatically deleted. I'm not joking. I did it last night, and I did it this morning: same result both times.
Now I can understand why Youtube might censor certain racist terms. But if you want to comment that this is "Black Lives Matter violence", which is not racist, just an opinion, you cannot.
Same goes for things like "this is black violence", or "what about black violence". They just disappear.
YouTube is preventing commenters from simply expressing lawful opinions
What happens if a popular movement for the redistribution of wealth rises up and gets itself completely censored by said media billionaires? Because you can sure they'll justify it as 'draining the swamp' too...
The main objectors to that would be people for who "populism" = "bad thangs"2 -
I have mixed feelings about the 14 days. Objectively, I don't mind it.
But subjectively, my mind goes to every occasion the police have told one of my clients that the fact that them or their family has been abused, racially or sexually harassed, threatened with harm and in one case death, sometimes by idiots and sometimes by sophisticated operators, that it is "not a police matter".0 -
Won by Trump 60-33 over Clinton (!)HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...0 -
Another terrible poll for Trump. Arkansas should be safer than MississippiHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
0 -
True.TheWhiteRabbit said:I have mixed feelings about the 14 days. Objectively, I don't mind it.
But subjectively, my mind goes to every occasion the police have told one of my clients that the fact that them or their family has been abused, racially or sexually harassed, threatened with harm and in one case death, sometimes by idiots and sometimes by sophisticated operators, that it is "not a police matter".
I am reminded of a corner shop owner on a bad estate, who was told that it wasn't in the public interest to prosecute the persistent shop lifters who harried him.
The solution to that problem was interesting.1 -
Mr. Glenn, not the same department, but been having problems creating my online account. I don't even want one, but the Government, in its infinite wisdom, has decided to stop using paper returns (which work) in favour of online ones (which currently don't).0
-
I wasn't shocked by it. Given the forces and views ranged on both sides, it was probably quite expedient.TheWhiteRabbit said:I have mixed feelings about the 14 days. Objectively, I don't mind it.
But subjectively, my mind goes to every occasion the police have told one of my clients that the fact that them or their family has been abused, racially or sexually harassed, threatened with harm and in one case death, sometimes by idiots and sometimes by sophisticated operators, that it is "not a police matter".0 -
Only a fuckwit would want a no-deal Brexit. You would have to be extremely stupid even by Brexiter standards...…. Oh, awfully sorry Philip old bean!Philip_Thompson said:
Very leading questions from an anti-Brexit campaign group gets the answers it wants. What a shocker!Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1272518252791508994FF43 said:Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
0 -
ydoethur said:
Lawyers, of course, add value to every discussion, although the hourly rate can vary a bit.kinabalu said:
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that. - they are a shower.
When I meet one I always expect Atticus Finch and I'm invariably disappointed. Sometimes bitterly.0 -
Trump and the GOP.
Compare state polls for the US Senate and the Presidency (I've used polls conducted by the same company/at the same time whenever possible, so some of the results are old).
In most cases Trump massively outperforms GOP Senate candidates in Red and competitive states. Trump has so effectively parasitised his GOP host that he's the only thing keeping it alive even while he chews it up.State Trump lead GOP Senate lead Kentucky +17 McConnell -1 Alabama +20 +8 to +13 Alaska +5 +0 to +2 Arizona -4 -13 Georgia -1 -11 to +3 Iowa +4.6 -3 Kansas +12 -1 to +1 Montana +16 -7 North Carolina -4 -2 Oklahoma +24 +26 South Carolina +10 Graham +0
The idea that the GOP will abandon Trump to save themselves is complete fantasy. His coattails are about all they have left now.0 -
Nope, they are no worse than any other profession, or walk of life and probably better than many. I have met just as many self centred and greedy doctors as I have lawyers or accountants with similar viceskinabalu said:ydoethur said:
Lawyers, of course, add value to every discussion, although the hourly rate can vary a bit.kinabalu said:
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that. - they are a shower.
When I meet one I always expect Atticus Finch and I'm invariably disappointed. Sometimes bitterly.1 -
Is there a story here?Malmesbury said:
True.TheWhiteRabbit said:I have mixed feelings about the 14 days. Objectively, I don't mind it.
But subjectively, my mind goes to every occasion the police have told one of my clients that the fact that them or their family has been abused, racially or sexually harassed, threatened with harm and in one case death, sometimes by idiots and sometimes by sophisticated operators, that it is "not a police matter".
I am reminded of a corner shop owner on a bad estate, who was told that it wasn't in the public interest to prosecute the persistent shop lifters who harried him.
The solution to that problem was interesting.
(If it's another £845.23+VAT I'm not interested.)0 -
I
I rather think you should try the kind of society that doesn't really use lawyers.kinabalu said:ydoethur said:
Lawyers, of course, add value to every discussion, although the hourly rate can vary a bit.kinabalu said:
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that. - they are a shower.
When I meet one I always expect Atticus Finch and I'm invariably disappointed. Sometimes bitterly.
Some of the more... brisk parts of Lagos, for example.1 -
I don't want a no-deal Brexit. I want a good deal Brexit, but no deal is better than a bad deal.Nigel_Foremain said:
Only a fuckwit would want a no-deal Brexit. You would have to be extremely stupid even by Brexiter standards...…. Oh, awfully sorry Philip old bean!Philip_Thompson said:
Very leading questions from an anti-Brexit campaign group gets the answers it wants. What a shocker!Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1272518252791508994FF43 said:Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
The poll though was by anti-Brexit campaign group Best for Britain and the polling question was ludicrously leading.
After a set of Yes, Prime Minister style set of leading questions were asked this was the question eventually asked:
‘The Conservative campaign manifesto said that the Government would pursue "a new free trade agreement with the EU [and that] this will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation”. How important is it that the Government keeps this promise?’
What a leading question! Hint: I'd answer its important that the Government keeps its promise. That doesn't mean what Nick Cohen is trying to spin it as.2 -
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ar/arkansas_trump_vs_clinton-5899.html
If we're taking the pollster to be as accurate, and giving Trump the benefit of all swing doubt at this point then it's a 4.5 pt swing from 2016.
Trump +11 Arkansas to Trump +2 Arkansas.0 -
They aren't going to answer that for free...ydoethur said:
Is there a story here?Malmesbury said:
True.TheWhiteRabbit said:I have mixed feelings about the 14 days. Objectively, I don't mind it.
But subjectively, my mind goes to every occasion the police have told one of my clients that the fact that them or their family has been abused, racially or sexually harassed, threatened with harm and in one case death, sometimes by idiots and sometimes by sophisticated operators, that it is "not a police matter".
I am reminded of a corner shop owner on a bad estate, who was told that it wasn't in the public interest to prosecute the persistent shop lifters who harried him.
The solution to that problem was interesting.
(If it's another £845.23+VAT I'm not interested.)
0 -
I sense she's quite a nice person actually. Ditto - to show balance - that "Montie" bloke.BluestBlue said:
You had an interesting disquisition on personal hatred the other day which might suggest you don't always succeed in that ambition.kinabalu said:
You're always seeking out the worst in people. I try not to do that.BluestBlue said:
She's clearly concerned because if urinating next to a monument merits 14 days in prison, how much will the people who actually destroyed or vandalized a monument get? Or all the other malefactors the police will identify via CCTV after the fact?kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not need.
Answers on the back of a postcard...
Anyway, I don't quite see it as 'seeking out the worst' in Sarkar. She is both deeply political and self-interested - neither of which is an intrinsically disreputable quality - and she doesn't want the more, er, enthusiastic members of the far left to receive a free diet of porridge as a result of their protesting activities. Hence her extraordinary and uncharacteristic leniency towards Mr. Micturator.
As for 'the other day' and 'hate', I was provoked beyond endurance by somebody, forget who, but somebody. Could have been you.
The truth is, I can detect some good in almost all people, including politicians of the right. There is one exception, a person with no redeeming features whatsoever, but he's across the pond and he'll be out of the picture soon anyway.0 -
Want to double that bet to £10, Kinablukinabalu said:
Well good - I want the consensus to remain that it's going to be close so I can sell that Trump EC opening spread at about 245.Nigelb said:‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Well, it's a view. ?
In seriousness, here's a question: apart from the published polls which come out, what gives you confidence that Biden is winning by a storm at the moment? Because it is not shown by actual results - the Democrats lost a House seat (@RCS says we shouldn't read too much into CA-25 but the very best interpretation is that it doesn't suggest an electorate fired up to give Trump a bloody nose where possible); it wasn't shown in PA when more Republicans turned out for their primary than Democrats did besides the latter having an advantage in registered voters; there has been plenty of anecdotes about Trump posters in backyards still been commonplace but no one seems to be talking of the rapid spread of Biden euphoria. Where is the evidence on the ground to back up the polls?
That is why the Republicans in that article seem confident.
0 -
-
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Won by Trump 60-33 over Clinton (!)HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...1 -
Only a fool would want a No Deal Brexit. Not getting an FTA with the EU would not be a No Deal Brexit, it would be a hard, or WTO Brexit. It wouldn't be a No Deal Brexit because we have a withdrawal agreement that ensures an orderly disengagement with the continuance of travel and trade.Nigel_Foremain said:
Only a fuckwit would want a no-deal Brexit. You would have to be extremely stupid even by Brexiter standards...…. Oh, awfully sorry Philip old bean!Philip_Thompson said:
Very leading questions from an anti-Brexit campaign group gets the answers it wants. What a shocker!Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1272518252791508994FF43 said:Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
When we were actually facing a No Deal Brexit, in TMay's time, we were told in no uncertain terms by our remainer cohort that in NO WAY was crashing out with NO DEAL to be compared to leaving on WTO terms. It spelled imminent disaster, falling off a cliff, crashing the bus, having to eat the cat, etc. Now we face leaving on WTO terms, they've revived the No Deal term because it's scarier. It baffles me why the 'more educated' side of the debate continues to try to pull the wool over people's eyes with such silly and obvious rhetorical swapsies.2 -
Given our prior business, I can quote you a reduced rate....ydoethur said:
Is there a story here?Malmesbury said:
True.TheWhiteRabbit said:I have mixed feelings about the 14 days. Objectively, I don't mind it.
But subjectively, my mind goes to every occasion the police have told one of my clients that the fact that them or their family has been abused, racially or sexually harassed, threatened with harm and in one case death, sometimes by idiots and sometimes by sophisticated operators, that it is "not a police matter".
I am reminded of a corner shop owner on a bad estate, who was told that it wasn't in the public interest to prosecute the persistent shop lifters who harried him.
The solution to that problem was interesting.
(If it's another £845.23+VAT I'm not interested.)
One of his habitual customers heard about the problem. He advised the shop keeper to join his (the customers) members club, not far round the corner. A basement under a taxi shop.... £x per week.
And never go there.
Just put his (the customers) business card on the pin board of locals ads near the door.
According to my friend who lived in the area, only the more stupid and fargone addicts tried anything after that.
The customer got his daily paper for free, as well.
Some people are shocked by this kind of thing - but if the legal system withdraws coverage, what do they expect?0 -
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.Nigel_Foremain said:
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Won by Trump 60-33 over Clinton (!)HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...0 -
Us 'aliens' everywhere are the only group seemingly obliged to pay local taxes, without getting a vote over who sets them!TimT said:
Yeah, I live near DC and have a wry smile every time I read the "No Taxation without Representation" plates.DavidL said:
Bet you still have to pay taxes though. Americans (and everyone else) can be hypocritical about that sort of thing.TimT said:
That's TimB. I am a Legal Alien, so voteless here and, as I've been out of the country since 2000, voteless in the UK.Pulpstar said:
Are you eligible to vote, or was that @TimB ?TimT said:
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.contrarian said:
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.Nigelb said:‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Well, it's a view.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
I know one eligible voter here, who always votes postally. He's registered to New York State though so his Democrat vote just adds to the pile there.
PS And I still pay UK taxes...
(Thankfully taxes are low here, so I'm not yet complaining too much).0 -
Love the use of the hackneyed slogan, you are a marketing person's dream. It is a silly slogan and wrong. Any "deal" we get out of the stupidity known as Brexit is demonstrably worse than the one we had already. Any deal will therefore be a bad deal, but pretty much any deal is better than no-dealPhilip_Thompson said:
I don't want a no-deal Brexit. I want a good deal Brexit, but no deal is better than a bad deal.Nigel_Foremain said:
Only a fuckwit would want a no-deal Brexit. You would have to be extremely stupid even by Brexiter standards...…. Oh, awfully sorry Philip old bean!Philip_Thompson said:
Very leading questions from an anti-Brexit campaign group gets the answers it wants. What a shocker!Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1272518252791508994FF43 said:Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
The poll though was by anti-Brexit campaign group Best for Britain and the polling question was ludicrously leading.
After a set of Yes, Prime Minister style set of leading questions were asked this was the question eventually asked:
‘The Conservative campaign manifesto said that the Government would pursue "a new free trade agreement with the EU [and that] this will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation”. How important is it that the Government keeps this promise?’
What a leading question! Hint: I'd answer its important that the Government keeps its promise. That doesn't mean what Nick Cohen is trying to spin it as.0 -
On Brexit and despite non stop anti brexit and HMG postings by Scott I really expect a deal will be made with the EU this Autumn1
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Arkansas managed to elect Clinton as Governor (twice). A Dem obviously.Pulpstar said:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ar/arkansas_trump_vs_clinton-5899.html
If we're taking the pollster to be as accurate, and giving Trump the benefit of all swing doubt at this point then it's a 4.5 pt swing from 2016.
Trump +11 Arkansas to Trump +2 Arkansas.0 -
HahahahahahahaNigel_Foremain said:
Love the use of the hackneyed slogan, you are a marketing person's dream. It is a silly slogan and wrong. Any "deal" we get out of the stupidity known as Brexit is demonstrably worse than the one we had already. Any deal will therefore be a bad deal, but pretty much any deal is better than no-dealPhilip_Thompson said:
I don't want a no-deal Brexit. I want a good deal Brexit, but no deal is better than a bad deal.Nigel_Foremain said:
Only a fuckwit would want a no-deal Brexit. You would have to be extremely stupid even by Brexiter standards...…. Oh, awfully sorry Philip old bean!Philip_Thompson said:
Very leading questions from an anti-Brexit campaign group gets the answers it wants. What a shocker!Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1272518252791508994FF43 said:Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
The poll though was by anti-Brexit campaign group Best for Britain and the polling question was ludicrously leading.
After a set of Yes, Prime Minister style set of leading questions were asked this was the question eventually asked:
‘The Conservative campaign manifesto said that the Government would pursue "a new free trade agreement with the EU [and that] this will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation”. How important is it that the Government keeps this promise?’
What a leading question! Hint: I'd answer its important that the Government keeps its promise. That doesn't mean what Nick Cohen is trying to spin it as.
I do love the fact you actually believe this rubbish.0 -
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.kinabalu said:
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.Nigel_Foremain said:
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Won by Trump 60-33 over Clinton (!)HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!0 -
Fine with the tenner. Although I really ought to be giving you a shade of odds now. It was a genuine consensus even money chance when we did the original bet.MrEd said:
Want to double that bet to £10, Kinablukinabalu said:
Well good - I want the consensus to remain that it's going to be close so I can sell that Trump EC opening spread at about 245.Nigelb said:‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Well, it's a view. ?
In seriousness, here's a question: apart from the published polls which come out, what gives you confidence that Biden is winning by a storm at the moment? Because it is not shown by actual results - the Democrats lost a House seat (@RCS says we shouldn't read too much into CA-25 but the very best interpretation is that it doesn't suggest an electorate fired up to give Trump a bloody nose where possible); it wasn't shown in PA when more Republicans turned out for their primary than Democrats did besides the latter having an advantage in registered voters; there has been plenty of anecdotes about Trump posters in backyards still been commonplace but no one seems to be talking of the rapid spread of Biden euphoria. Where is the evidence on the ground to back up the polls?
That is why the Republicans in that article seem confident.
I have a number of ways to explain why I see the big loss for him.
Writing one at the moment - "WH2020 through the lens of the Deer Hunter" - which I will make sure to post when you are on the thread.0 -
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.kinabalu said:
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.Nigel_Foremain said:
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Won by Trump 60-33 over Clinton (!)HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...1 -
People aren't voting about Trump or Biden in these smaller elections. In the big one that's the main point...MrEd said:
Want to double that bet to £10, Kinablukinabalu said:
Well good - I want the consensus to remain that it's going to be close so I can sell that Trump EC opening spread at about 245.Nigelb said:‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Well, it's a view. ?
In seriousness, here's a question: apart from the published polls which come out, what gives you confidence that Biden is winning by a storm at the moment? Because it is not shown by actual results - the Democrats lost a House seat (@RCS says we shouldn't read too much into CA-25 but the very best interpretation is that it doesn't suggest an electorate fired up to give Trump a bloody nose where possible); it wasn't shown in PA when more Republicans turned out for their primary than Democrats did besides the latter having an advantage in registered voters; there has been plenty of anecdotes about Trump posters in backyards still been commonplace but no one seems to be talking of the rapid spread of Biden euphoria. Where is the evidence on the ground to back up the polls?
That is why the Republicans in that article seem confident.
It's not exactly the same but backing many gains for the Lib Dems off the back of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election would have been a similiar category error in terms of UK political betting at the 2019 GE.
Polls are a better indicator.0 -
"very right wing"?Nigel_Foremain said:
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.kinabalu said:
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.Nigel_Foremain said:
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Won by Trump 60-33 over Clinton (!)HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...0 -
I just hope so. Trouble tis the Brexiters have shifted from promises of 'easiest thing in the world' and 'everything but migration' to threats of the hardest Brexit. Where is this shift going to end? You can, one hopes, forgive us for worry and doubt and fear for such basic things as food and medicine. IIRC one of the Cabinet was saying that medicine was a doddle because there had never been problems even during the virus. Well, that was an absolute lie. There were problems during the virus, and problems before - especially when one considers that the actual formulation/brand is as important for many people as the basic active principle used. And many of us need our medicine, or our partners [edit and families] do.Big_G_NorthWales said:On Brexit and despite non stop anti brexit and HMG postings by Scott I really expect a deal will be made with the EU this Autumn
0 -
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I know I know. We need them. And some are very noble (I would imagine).Malmesbury said:I
I rather think you should try the kind of society that doesn't really use lawyers.kinabalu said:ydoethur said:
Lawyers, of course, add value to every discussion, although the hourly rate can vary a bit.kinabalu said:
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that. - they are a shower.
When I meet one I always expect Atticus Finch and I'm invariably disappointed. Sometimes bitterly.
Some of the more... brisk parts of Lagos, for example.0 -
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I was going to wade into the discussion about lawyers. My contribution contained a nice little pithily worded phrase, but quite frankly no-one would go about their day happier or better informed as a result. So instead, let me relate the tears of happiness I have just shed in picking my youngest daughter up from her first day back at school. She has spent a whole day surrounded by people her own age, and I think she is happier than she's been in months, and therefore I am too.7
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The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.RobD said:
"very right wing"?Nigel_Foremain said:
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.kinabalu said:
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.Nigel_Foremain said:
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Won by Trump 60-33 over Clinton (!)HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
2 -
It has been my general experience that, for a very wide range of groups, the ratio of chods to decent human beings is surprisingly invariant.kinabalu said:
I know I know. We need them. And some are very noble (I would imagine).Malmesbury said:I
I rather think you should try the kind of society that doesn't really use lawyers.kinabalu said:ydoethur said:
Lawyers, of course, add value to every discussion, although the hourly rate can vary a bit.kinabalu said:
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that. - they are a shower.
When I meet one I always expect Atticus Finch and I'm invariably disappointed. Sometimes bitterly.
Some of the more... brisk parts of Lagos, for example.
Nepalese hill farmers and UK immigration consultants for example.1 -
No 2 Granddaughter emailed her Grannie to say much the same. She was worried, and therefore we're doubly relieved.Cookie said:I was going to wade into the discussion about lawyers. My contribution contained a nice little pithily worded phrase, but quite frankly no-one would go about their day happier or better informed as a result. So instead, let me relate the tears of happiness I have just shed in picking my youngest daughter up from her first day back at school. She has spent a whole day surrounded by people her own age, and I think she is happier than she's been in months, and therefore I am too.
1 -
A good design that allows for long flight delays.williamglenn said:Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339223 -
Sounds like we have complete agreement on the only point where we could reasonably expect any agreement whatsoever.TOPPING said:
Not in this instance. And not you.kinabalu said:
I think non-lawyers can often add value to these sort of discussions. Especially me.TOPPING said:
Neither are you a lawyer so frankly your assessment that the punishments were OTT is neither here nor there. Some sentences were reduced on appeal but the context is critical and, importantly the "Court of Appeal confirmed that participation in a collective outbreak of disorder takes offending outside the sentencing guidelines."kinabalu said:
But there were some OTT punishments. Think most recognized this at the time. I certainly did. Not that I was in any way involved, you understand. All just based on what I saw on the telly and read in the papers.TOPPING said:
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.kinabalu said:
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.Malmesbury said:
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.kinabalu said:
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.Pulpstar said:Interesting tweet, given the tweeter.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.
Otherwise yes.
Not too shabby. Not too shabby at all.0 -
And the possibility that the passenger hasn't progressed (!!) from the mid/late 20th Cent.NorthofStoke said:
A good design that allows for long flight delays.williamglenn said:Just how antiquated are the Home Office's systems?
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/12724677001708339220 -
There are some Democrats who could easily be Kippers with their support for economic protectionism, the death penalty, fierce anti-Chinese rhetoric etc.Malmesbury said:
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.RobD said:
"very right wing"?Nigel_Foremain said:
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.kinabalu said:
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.Nigel_Foremain said:
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Won by Trump 60-33 over Clinton (!)HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?1 -
Biden is quietly forgetting about some of his past positions....glw said:
There are some Democrats who could easily be Kippers with their support for economic protectionism, the death penalty, fierce anti-Chinese rhetoric etc.Malmesbury said:
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.RobD said:
"very right wing"?Nigel_Foremain said:
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.kinabalu said:
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.Nigel_Foremain said:
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Won by Trump 60-33 over Clinton (!)HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20Pulpstar said:Corker of a poll for Biden. Even if that's an outlier it still presages a win for him.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
0
This discussion has been closed.