OGH says, "What I find remarkable is how little the leader rating change is reflected in the voting figures."
I agree and wonder how far that reflects the deep damage Corbyn did to the Labour brand. In other words, are people saying they are impressed by Starmer but worry that his party will hobble or even ditch him if they get into office?
What it speaks to is Starmer's urgent need for a "Militant moment" - a very visible event that says, "This is MY party now". I've little doubt that Starmer's team are working on how to engineer that, whether through the antisemitism work, the postponed conference (if it ever happens) or otherwise. But I think there's a danger, if they can't make it happen in the next six months, it won't happen at all.
The real problem facing Boris at the moment is education. The attempt to return primary school kids to school at the beginning of this month has been fitful and frankly fritful (as Maggie might have said). Williamson's coat must be on a shoogly peg.
I really don't see how we get our economy working again properly without schools operating at pretty close to full capacity. Parents cannot go to work if their kids are at home. Parents find it hard to WFH if kids are at home.
We need to (a) reach a concluded view on the 2m nonsense. So far as I am aware there is no science supporting this at all, it was just an initial best guess that has got stuck in concrete; (b) be realistic and upfront about risk. Children are pretty much not at risk. They are facing much greater risks in the traffic getting to school than they face when they are there. This involves a conversation which might have to go beyond a soundbite. Tricky, I know. (c) Be much more upfront about the damage being done to children's education, mental health, sociability and general development. Keeping kids at home is not "safe"; it is taking a series of much more significant risks and actual damage.
Of course the UK government looks positively bold compared with the Scottish government's position but that does not excuse the failure south of the border. We benighted souls in Scotland just have to hope, as with the shopping and leisure industry, we will eventually play follow the leader.
According to Rawnsley, the government is running regular polls and focus groups.
I think the problem the government has is that it is making decisions based on what is popular not on what is right for the country overall.
This approach might shore up popularity short term (eg keeping schools shut is popular) but will damage the country (eg kids education, jobs) long term. Not asking for a Brexit extension is another example.
Populism might be a shrewd approach if there was an election tomorrow, but it's not for four years. Johnson likes populism. It makes him feel good and has been electorally successful for him. But eventually you run out of road. Someone mentioned roadrunner and the cliff. The shift in sentiment could be swift.
The Rawnsley piece is well worth a look, as you imply -
"To an extent perhaps still not fully appreciated, this Number 10 is obsessed with polling and focus grouping, which they conduct daily, and how things are projected in the media. “The problem with this government is that it is led by journalists,” says one senior official. “Action this day” was one of Winston Churchill’s famous injunctions. For Boris Johnson, it has been: “An empty pledge to get me through the day.” Where energy ought to have been directed to making important things happen, it was expended on concocting brags that might temporarily garner approving headlines or neutralise hostile ones. The result has been a persistent pattern of over-promising and underperforming."
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Those UK figures will include a large proportion of deaths from well before the last 7 days also.
The UK statistics are basically a joke.
If the government had at any point in the past switched to the reporting deaths that happened yesterday, they would be attacked for trying to cover-up the real numbers. I think they are doing the right thing keeping things as they are.
I'm not suggesting a Spanish style numbers cover up, I'm saying we should move to date of death reporting, not date of reporting. That we have no way of easily seeing the week on week change of actual deaths is an absurd scandal. The running 7 day average of reported deaths is completely useless. The government data reporting is a complete shambles.
Date of death reporting is happening though, its all happening. The question is what date do you headline though if you're briefing daily. That's how the Cricket guy is getting the figures, its all out there.
Those tables would make sense to c.5% of the population I reckon. Far better to carry on as they have been.
It's sometimes interesting to supplement the anonymous polling data with a drill-down on how the Cummings scandal has impacted the opinion on Boris Johnson of a real person - e.g. me.
It's negatively, I have to say. Never liked or rated Johnson, disappointed our country would choose such a person as our PM, but I was warming to him. I was OK with the tone he struck with his early virus meetings, then he got sick, recovered and I was very impressed with his first video address fresh out of hospital. Moved even. It felt authentic. The first time I had been able to say this about him. So my 'Johnson rating' at this point was 'unfavourable' but trending towards neutral.
The scandal then broke and there was a Header on here which concluded that Cummings ought to go and that he would go. I disagreed on both counts. I thought he probably should stay - given his value to the government - and I never for a moment thought he would resign or be sacked. Armed with my new and improved opinion of Johnson, I assumed he would have the integrity and the political skill and capital to (i) keep his most important SPAD but (ii) make it clear to the public that there had been a reprimand and an unreserved apology.
Well (i) proved to be the case, but as for (ii) how wrong could I be? Instead of reprimand and apology what we got from the PM was praise - PRAISE - for Cummings.
"He acted as he saw fit in the best interests of his family and I will not mark him down for that."
Absolutely incredible. You could have knocked me down with a feather. On recovering composure, I analysed the matter and came to the only possible conclusion. Here you had a guy, the PM of this country, an 80 seat majority won just 7 months ago, who without this "Dom" character would be a lost little lamb. Such was the measure of his vacuity and laziness - the reliance on a SPAD to supply all the intellectual heft and drive at the top of government because he had none of either. A dependency so craven that not only could he not bring himself to criticize the rule breaking and rank hypocrisy of Cummings, he ended up praising it.
Pisspoor. Just so so poor. And what a weak weak man. It's a bit pathetic, frankly, and one hates to say this about our PM. I do anyway, I much prefer to respect the person in that position, regardless of party.
Anyway bottom line. I was 'unfavourable trending better' and now I'm HIGHLY UNFAVOURABLE and trending the other way. Christ knows how low he can go. I'd rather not speculate.
It just shows your lack of judgement earlier on. But no matter, plenty fell under his spell, don't beat yourself up about being one of those. Some are still there. Just be happy you are clearer now, albeit it's a shame it took a highly publicised incident to bring it home to you.
Comparing final pre-election Johnson leader ratings to current Johnson leader ratings.
YouGov: Final pre-election: Approve 41%, Disapprove 52% (Net -11%) Most recent: Well 43%, Badly 50% (Net -7%)
2% Net swing from Badly to Approve
Opinium: Final pre-election: Well 33%, Badly 47% (Net -14%) Most recent: Approve 37%, Disapprove 43% (Net -6%)
4% Net swing from Disapprove to Well
IPSOS MORI: Final pre-election: Approve 36%, Disapprove 56% (Net -20%) Most recent: Satisfied 48%, Dissatisfied 49% (Net -1%)
9.5% Net swing from Dissatisfied to Approve
No Survation pre-election it seems to compare with. No recent Deltapoll to compare with.
So across all the pollsters there has been a net swing from pre-election in Boris's favour. Post-Cummings, post-COVID, post-Brexit as it stands the Johnson approval is higher as it stands than it was pre-election.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
"Rancid" - something that has gone bad "Gammon" - white person ruddy complexion racist gob "Petty" - describing a human being as worse than a dog "White scum"- see above
I wonder if notBluestBlue gets off on defending scum. Incidentally, surely the Bluest of Blue would be a Party member, activist, participant. Blue isn't a member. So isn't really Blue. Just Semi-Blue. Quasi-Blue. The Diet Coke of Blue.
Boris undoubtedly took a hit for keeping Cummings. He presumably concluded it was worth it. Too early to say if that was the right call or not.
The Tories have to keep their electoral coalition together. That will depend on ensuring continuing division along Brexit lines. No-one does disunity better than Dominic Cummings. The flaw in the plan may be that the opposition is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. As David Lammy observed this morning, the only people talking about statues being removed right now are the Tories. Can you fight a perpetual culture war against a non-existent foe?
If that's what Lammy was saying he was being dishonest. The BLM/twitter mobs lifted the attack on statues and symbols of past oppression from a background noise to front page news. I am cynical enough to acknowledge that the government response has been, "bring it on" for electoral reasons. Having a Corbynite foe of course makes life easy. SKS has been right not to play but Lammy is being disingenuous at best.
What he said - completely accurately - is that Labour is not talking about it, neither are the LibDems, the Greens or the SNP. The only party talking about it are the Tories. It's classic Cummings. His entire modus operando is about the creation of division. Given the mess the government is making of just about everything it goes near you can see why he is doing it. I just wonder whether it is sustainable for four years.
The 'gathering' of Loyalists in Glasgow yesterday and Saturday pretty much encapsulates this. Yesterday having once more found that nobody was actually attacking their precious monuments, the beered-up twats started in on the police, passers by and another faction of football supporters looking for a ruck. These guys are just gagging for an enemy within.
The other interesting point about Scotland and statues is how little reaction there has been to the vandalism of Bruce at Bannockburn - if we Scots were as obsessed with the past as the Tories and their fellow travellers down south [edit]* are (remember how they kept going on and on about Bannockburn in 2014) we'd be rioting too. But it's in fact: meh, some poor sod of a NTS stone conservator has to go out with the cleaning kit, glad it's not me ....
*Edit: some of the strongest reactions I saw on Twitter to the Bruce news (and not in support of the vandalism) were actually from staunch unionists.
Nats are too busy fighting about trans rights with each other now to bother with Bruce
Comparing final pre-election Johnson leader ratings to current Johnson leader ratings.
YouGov: Final pre-election: Approve 41%, Disapprove 52% (Net -11%) Most recent: Well 43%, Badly 50% (Net -7%)
2% Net swing from Badly to Approve
Opinium: Final pre-election: Well 33%, Badly 47% (Net -14%) Most recent: Approve 37%, Disapprove 43% (Net -6%)
4% Net swing from Disapprove to Well
IPSOS MORI: Final pre-election: Approve 36%, Disapprove 56% (Net -20%) Most recent: Satisfied 48%, Dissatisfied 49% (Net -1%)
9.5% Net swing from Dissatisfied to Approve
No Survation pre-election it seems to compare with. No recent Deltapoll to compare with.
So across all the pollsters there has been a net swing from pre-election in Boris's favour. Post-Cummings, post-COVID, post-Brexit as it stands the Johnson approval is higher as it stands than it was pre-election.
That is quite incredible.
Since the GE there has been a pandemic killing tens of thousands, the government has locked everyone up, closed the schools and shut the pubs, there are race riots in the streets, and Labour have a shiny new leader, yet the stats are there for all to see - Boris is better thought of today than he was when he won an 80 seat majority.
I wouldn't have believed it if you hadn't shown it to be so. Great analysis Philip, there's not a lot of it about.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
"Gammon" is not a description for white people. Just a certain cadre of old white racists who all seem to have the same ruddy complexion as they call black people "worse than dogs"
I think using racist terms for racists tells you exactly about my principles. And your defence of these racists and their views tells me about the sincerity of your principles. Well, lack of principles.
Looking at 7 day reporting from English hospitals we have a figure of 454, that's taking deaths from the previous 7 days for the last 7 days. Reported for the last 7 days is 329 though there's some additional reporting to come in from the last few days.
The government just haven't got a clue.
What we need is by death date, split into hospitals, homes and carehomes and the headline number should reflect the number from 7 days ago with a dotted line through the most recent days.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
Agree that's one explanation for why the UK has problems now that France has substantially solved.
My point was that Scott's tweet is valid. The difference between the UK and other countries is too stark to be dismissed as playing games with statistics.
France still has double the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 and double the number in ICU than the UK has.
The UK will now be at or below average deaths for the time of year
Not sure hospitalisation and ICU rates are that useful as point to point comparison. Not all Covid 19 sufferers end up in hospital and not all those that die from it go through ICU. What we can say is that the deaths came down much faster in France compared with the UK.
The trend isn't our friend as far as the UK's epidemic response is concerned.
OGH says, "What I find remarkable is how little the leader rating change is reflected in the voting figures."
I agree and wonder how far that reflects the deep damage Corbyn did to the Labour brand. In other words, are people saying they are impressed by Starmer but worry that his party will hobble or even ditch him if they get into office?
What it speaks to is Starmer's urgent need for a "Militant moment" - a very visible event that says, "This is MY party now". I've little doubt that Starmer's team are working on how to engineer that, whether through the antisemitism work, the postponed conference (if it ever happens) or otherwise. But I think there's a danger, if they can't make it happen in the next six months, it won't happen at all.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
Agree that's one explanation for why the UK has problems now that France has substantially solved.
My point was that Scott's tweet is valid. The difference between the UK and other countries is too stark to be dismissed as playing games with statistics.
France still has double the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 and double the number in ICU than the UK has.
The UK will now be at or below average deaths for the time of year
Not sure hospitalisation and ICU rates are that useful as point to point comparison. Not all Covid 19 sufferers end up in hospital and not all those that die from it go through ICU. What we can say is that the deaths came down much faster in France compared with the UK.
The trend isn't our friend as far as the UK's epidemic response is concerned.
If that graph was done by date of death the the peak would by higher and the drop would be steeper. Our lack of drop is deaths is a statistical phantom.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
"Gammon" is not a description for white people. Just a certain cadre of old white racists who all seem to have the same ruddy complexion as they call black people "worse than dogs"
I think using racist terms for racists tells you exactly about my principles. And your defence of these racists and their views tells me about the sincerity of your principles. Well, lack of principles.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
I'm not sure that that is relevant.
Was the *effect* any different. I don't recall significant differences in fall in transport usage, for example.
There was a comparative graph from Google data on Twitter somewhere, and I can't find it.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
"Gammon" is not a description for white people. Just a certain cadre of old white racists who all seem to have the same ruddy complexion as they call black people "worse than dogs"
I think using racist terms for racists tells you exactly about my principles. And your defence of these racists and their views tells me about the sincerity of your principles. Well, lack of principles.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
That is like saying one can't call a Nazi a Nazi, because the term Nazi is an offensive label that could cause offence. Ah, bless!
Comparing final pre-election Johnson leader ratings to current Johnson leader ratings.
YouGov: Final pre-election: Approve 41%, Disapprove 52% (Net -11%) Most recent: Well 43%, Badly 50% (Net -7%)
2% Net swing from Badly to Approve
Opinium: Final pre-election: Well 33%, Badly 47% (Net -14%) Most recent: Approve 37%, Disapprove 43% (Net -6%)
4% Net swing from Disapprove to Well
IPSOS MORI: Final pre-election: Approve 36%, Disapprove 56% (Net -20%) Most recent: Satisfied 48%, Dissatisfied 49% (Net -1%)
9.5% Net swing from Dissatisfied to Approve
No Survation pre-election it seems to compare with. No recent Deltapoll to compare with.
So across all the pollsters there has been a net swing from pre-election in Boris's favour. Post-Cummings, post-COVID, post-Brexit as it stands the Johnson approval is higher as it stands than it was pre-election.
That is quite incredible.
Since the GE there has been a pandemic killing tens of thousands, the government has locked everyone up, closed the schools and shut the pubs, there are race riots in the streets, and Labour have a shiny new leader, yet the stats are there for all to see - Boris is better thought of today than he was when he won an 80 seat majority.
I wouldn't have believed it if you hadn't shown it to be so. Great analysis Philip, there's not a lot of it about.
Thank you Sam.
A more considered response than "A Boris fanboy in denial". I think its a shame OGH @MikeSmithson didn't reply in more detail to the analysis with the numbers involved.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
Agree that's one explanation for why the UK has problems now that France has substantially solved.
My point was that Scott's tweet is valid. The difference between the UK and other countries is too stark to be dismissed as playing games with statistics.
France still has double the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 and double the number in ICU than the UK has.
The UK will now be at or below average deaths for the time of year
Not sure hospitalisation and ICU rates are that useful as point to point comparison. Not all Covid 19 sufferers end up in hospital and not all those that die from it go through ICU. What we can say is that the deaths came down much faster in France compared with the UK.
The trend isn't our friend as far as the UK's epidemic response is concerned.
Isn't it a bit strange that according to official figures France's new infection count is far far less than the UKs, yet they have double in hospital and in ICUs?
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
What a waste of time, I'd make him do 200 hours of community service cleaning the monuments over the next few weeks. Specifically monuments to non-white people like Gandhi and Mandela.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Those UK figures will include a large proportion of deaths from well before the last 7 days also.
The UK statistics are basically a joke.
No, the UK statistics are transparently honest.
The Spanish statistics are a joke.
As are France and Italys
Covid nationalism is quite the thing.
Covid deaths are a political football which is why Countries are not reporting them
I applaud your noble search for truth that rises above petty nationalism and political fitba.
Yes, it's clear some nations are playing games ith the numbers. The UK is, but we have a pretty good idea how and by how much. I suspect the US is doing likewise. They have suspiciously low death rates in many States.
The Russian figures are a hoot, or would be if you didn't care about the poor sods that live there.
Pisspoor. Just so so poor. And what a weak weak man. It's a bit pathetic, frankly, and one hates to say this about our PM. I do anyway, I much prefer to respect the person in that position, regardless of party.
Anyway bottom line. I was 'unfavourable trending better' and now I'm HIGHLY UNFAVOURABLE and trending the other way. Christ knows how low he can go. I'd rather not speculate.
Did you catch Dead Ringers this weekend? A review of life under the virus. There was a sketch at the end about Boris, Dom and Durham, which was uncomfortable listening (and I'm not a fan of B + D). Let's just say that having a chief adviser called Dom was made pretty near the knuckle.
Now, you might say that nobody's vote has ever been changed by any satirical production. I think the creators of Private Eye pointed out the huge success of 1930's Berlin cabaret. But sometimes unfair comedic images do stick; Maggie in a man's suit, grey John Major, Blair teasing Prescott for still being a lefty. And if BoJo's satirical image goes from Dulux dog made human to Dom's victim in a No 10 dungeon, that won't help him.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
"Gammon" is not a description for white people. Just a certain cadre of old white racists who all seem to have the same ruddy complexion as they call black people "worse than dogs"
I think using racist terms for racists tells you exactly about my principles. And your defence of these racists and their views tells me about the sincerity of your principles. Well, lack of principles.
you appear to still be living in the 1950s , whats it like ?
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
"Gammon" is not a description for white people. Just a certain cadre of old white racists who all seem to have the same ruddy complexion as they call black people "worse than dogs"
I think using racist terms for racists tells you exactly about my principles. And your defence of these racists and their views tells me about the sincerity of your principles. Well, lack of principles.
Is this gammon?
Angry? Tick. White? Tick. Racist? Tick. Rants on about bollocks? Tick.
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
That's ridiculous. Jeez I would be amazed if he knew where the f**k he was peeing. Or was it just for peeing in public? If so fire up the police quattros for any number of events, London Marathon (like a river of pee as I remember it), and just about every Saturday night anywhere, as was.
Amazing lack of common sense by just about everyone, including him, of course, but really.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
"Rancid" - something that has gone bad "Gammon" - white person ruddy complexion racist gob "Petty" - describing a human being as worse than a dog "White scum"- see above
I wonder if notBluestBlue gets off on defending scum. Incidentally, surely the Bluest of Blue would be a Party member, activist, participant. Blue isn't a member. So isn't really Blue. Just Semi-Blue. Quasi-Blue. The Diet Coke of Blue.
I have no interest in defending that person.
What I do have an interest in is testing your supposed commitment to anti-racism, to see whether you will reveal it to be comically hypocritical and one-sided.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Those UK figures will include a large proportion of deaths from well before the last 7 days also.
The UK statistics are basically a joke.
If the government had at any point in the past switched to the reporting deaths that happened yesterday, they would be attacked for trying to cover-up the real numbers. I think they are doing the right thing keeping things as they are.
I'm not suggesting a Spanish style numbers cover up, I'm saying we should move to date of death reporting, not date of reporting. That we have no way of easily seeing the week on week change of actual deaths is an absurd scandal. The running 7 day average of reported deaths is completely useless. The government data reporting is a complete shambles.
Agreed, but the problem is how do you actually move from reporting one set of stats to the other, without a totally ignorant and innumerate media screaming that the government are covering up deaths to make themselves look better?
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
Is that for simply urinating in the street, or specifically where he did it? Seems a bit harsh to me as I think it's unlikely that he intended to cause offence.
Boris undoubtedly took a hit for keeping Cummings. He presumably concluded it was worth it. Too early to say if that was the right call or not.
The Tories have to keep their electoral coalition together. That will depend on ensuring continuing division along Brexit lines. No-one does disunity better than Dominic Cummings. The flaw in the plan may be that the opposition is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. As David Lammy observed this morning, the only people talking about statues being removed right now are the Tories. Can you fight a perpetual culture war against a non-existent foe?
If that's what Lammy was saying he was being dishonest. The BLM/twitter mobs lifted the attack on statues and symbols of past oppression from a background noise to front page news. I am cynical enough to acknowledge that the government response has been, "bring it on" for electoral reasons. Having a Corbynite foe of course makes life easy. SKS has been right not to play but Lammy is being disingenuous at best.
What he said - completely accurately - is that Labour is not talking about it, neither are the LibDems, the Greens or the SNP. The only party talking about it are the Tories. It's classic Cummings. His entire modus operando is about the creation of division. Given the mess the government is making of just about everything it goes near you can see why he is doing it. I just wonder whether it is sustainable for four years.
The 'gathering' of Loyalists in Glasgow yesterday and Saturday pretty much encapsulates this. Yesterday having once more found that nobody was actually attacking their precious monuments, the beered-up twats started in on the police, passers by and another faction of football supporters looking for a ruck. These guys are just gagging for an enemy within.
The other interesting point about Scotland and statues is how little reaction there has been to the vandalism of Bruce at Bannockburn - if we Scots were as obsessed with the past as the Tories and their fellow travellers down south [edit]* are (remember how they kept going on and on about Bannockburn in 2014) we'd be rioting too. But it's in fact: meh, some poor sod of a NTS stone conservator has to go out with the cleaning kit, glad it's not me ....
*Edit: some of the strongest reactions I saw on Twitter to the Bruce news (and not in support of the vandalism) were actually from staunch unionists.
Nats are too busy fighting about trans rights with each other now to bother with Bruce
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
Agree that's one explanation for why the UK has problems now that France has substantially solved.
My point was that Scott's tweet is valid. The difference between the UK and other countries is too stark to be dismissed as playing games with statistics.
France still has double the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 and double the number in ICU than the UK has.
The UK will now be at or below average deaths for the time of year
Not sure hospitalisation and ICU rates are that useful as point to point comparison. Not all Covid 19 sufferers end up in hospital and not all those that die from it go through ICU. What we can say is that the deaths came down much faster in France compared with the UK.
The trend isn't our friend as far as the UK's epidemic response is concerned.
If that graph was done by date of death the the peak would by higher and the drop would be steeper. Our lack of drop is deaths is a statistical phantom.
Possibly. However other counties aren't necessarily more timely in reporting deaths (on the whole I suspect the UK is a bit better). Also this is a seven day rolling average, which will slow the drop for all countries. Point however is that the death rate is times higher in the UK than other countries and many times higher than some.
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
What a waste of time, I'd make him do 200 hours of community service cleaning the monuments over the next few weeks. Specifically monuments to non-white people like Gandhi and Mandela.
You are assuming those monuments will still be there...
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
"Gammon" is not a description for white people. Just a certain cadre of old white racists who all seem to have the same ruddy complexion as they call black people "worse than dogs"
I think using racist terms for racists tells you exactly about my principles. And your defence of these racists and their views tells me about the sincerity of your principles. Well, lack of principles.
Is this gammon?
If the cap fits, he's welcome to wear it.
A nasty anti-Semite maybe, but he is rather svelte for a man of his years.
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
"Prosecutor Michael Mallon said the Tottenham Hotspur fan was in central London to ‘protect statues’, but admitted he did not know which ones."
Like the rest of the "lads" who headed into town to fight black people they couldn't give a toss about statues. Didn't have a clue before the drinking started who most of them were for, never mind after all that delicious lager. Just mindless scum wanting a fight because his definition of manhood is so shallow that he has to be HARD otherwise people might notice how pathetic he really is.
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
What a waste of time, I'd make him do 200 hours of community service cleaning the monuments over the next few weeks. Specifically monuments to non-white people like Gandhi and Mandela.
The bloke is a lout and a hypocrite, but prison is way, way too harsh. Naming him and showing his face would have been enough. But I like your idea best.
OGH says, "What I find remarkable is how little the leader rating change is reflected in the voting figures."
I agree and wonder how far that reflects the deep damage Corbyn did to the Labour brand. In other words, are people saying they are impressed by Starmer but worry that his party will hobble or even ditch him if they get into office?
What it speaks to is Starmer's urgent need for a "Militant moment" - a very visible event that says, "This is MY party now". I've little doubt that Starmer's team are working on how to engineer that, whether through the antisemitism work, the postponed conference (if it ever happens) or otherwise. But I think there's a danger, if they can't make it happen in the next six months, it won't happen at all.
When is the EHRC report on antisemitism due to be published?
If that report says what most of us expect it to, that’s going to be Starmer’s one chance to expel the New Militant.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
"Gammon" is not a description for white people. Just a certain cadre of old white racists who all seem to have the same ruddy complexion as they call black people "worse than dogs"
I think using racist terms for racists tells you exactly about my principles. And your defence of these racists and their views tells me about the sincerity of your principles. Well, lack of principles.
'I think using racist terms for racists tells you exactly about my principles.'
Yes, it tells me that you don't actually believe that racism is a bad thing in principle, you just believe that racism should be directed at different targets.
Which makes you really quite a laughable hypocrite.
Boris undoubtedly took a hit for keeping Cummings. He presumably concluded it was worth it. Too early to say if that was the right call or not.
The Tories have to keep their electoral coalition together. That will depend on ensuring continuing division along Brexit lines. No-one does disunity better than Dominic Cummings. The flaw in the plan may be that the opposition is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. As David Lammy observed this morning, the only people talking about statues being removed right now are the Tories. Can you fight a perpetual culture war against a non-existent foe?
If that's what Lammy was saying he was being dishonest. The BLM/twitter mobs lifted the attack on statues and symbols of past oppression from a background noise to front page news. I am cynical enough to acknowledge that the government response has been, "bring it on" for electoral reasons. Having a Corbynite foe of course makes life easy. SKS has been right not to play but Lammy is being disingenuous at best.
What he said - completely accurately - is that Labour is not talking about it, neither are the LibDems, the Greens or the SNP. The only party talking about it are the Tories. It's classic Cummings. His entire modus operando is about the creation of division. Given the mess the government is making of just about everything it goes near you can see why he is doing it. I just wonder whether it is sustainable for four years.
The 'gathering' of Loyalists in Glasgow yesterday and Saturday pretty much encapsulates this. Yesterday having once more found that nobody was actually attacking their precious monuments, the beered-up twats started in on the police, passers by and another faction of football supporters looking for a ruck. These guys are just gagging for an enemy within.
The other interesting point about Scotland and statues is how little reaction there has been to the vandalism of Bruce at Bannockburn - if we Scots were as obsessed with the past as the Tories and their fellow travellers down south [edit]* are (remember how they kept going on and on about Bannockburn in 2014) we'd be rioting too. But it's in fact: meh, some poor sod of a NTS stone conservator has to go out with the cleaning kit, glad it's not me ....
*Edit: some of the strongest reactions I saw on Twitter to the Bruce news (and not in support of the vandalism) were actually from staunch unionists.
Forgive me a wry smile.
Do the SNP not close their every annual conference re-brainwashing themselves as to how much they hate the English because of something that happened in 1314 or thereabouts?
"Scots, who have with Wallace bled, Scots, whom Bruce has often led, Welcome to your gory bed Or to victory."
The only political establishment more obsessed with historical victimhood I can think of are probably the Serbs.
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
What a waste of time, I'd make him do 200 hours of community service cleaning the monuments over the next few weeks. Specifically monuments to non-white people like Gandhi and Mandela.
In fairness to the statues and the judge it wouldn't do the statues or their bases any good to be cleaned by people who don't know how to do it - it's very easy to do serious damage to stone and bronze with "cleaning" agents. You need specialist conservators to supervise and to do the work with the necessary light touch.
OGH says, "What I find remarkable is how little the leader rating change is reflected in the voting figures."
I agree and wonder how far that reflects the deep damage Corbyn did to the Labour brand. In other words, are people saying they are impressed by Starmer but worry that his party will hobble or even ditch him if they get into office?
What it speaks to is Starmer's urgent need for a "Militant moment" - a very visible event that says, "This is MY party now". I've little doubt that Starmer's team are working on how to engineer that, whether through the antisemitism work, the postponed conference (if it ever happens) or otherwise. But I think there's a danger, if they can't make it happen in the next six months, it won't happen at all.
When is the EHRC report on antisemitism due to be published?
If that report says what most of us expect it to, that’s going to be Starmer’s one chance to expel the New Militant.
That he kept Rebecca Long-Bailey in his Cabinet was a worrying start.
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
That's ridiculous. Jeez I would be amazed if he knew where the f**k he was peeing. Or was it just for peeing in public? If so fire up the police quattros for any number of events, London Marathon (like a river of pee as I remember it), and just about every Saturday night anywhere, as was.
Amazing lack of common sense by just about everyone, including him, of course, but really.
No other 'Football lad' took a piss in the street? No one at all at any BLM demo over the last ten days? With public toilets, pubs, or restaurants, hotels open?
Boris undoubtedly took a hit for keeping Cummings. He presumably concluded it was worth it. Too early to say if that was the right call or not.
The Tories have to keep their electoral coalition together. That will depend on ensuring continuing division along Brexit lines. No-one does disunity better than Dominic Cummings. The flaw in the plan may be that the opposition is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. As David Lammy observed this morning, the only people talking about statues being removed right now are the Tories. Can you fight a perpetual culture war against a non-existent foe?
If that's what Lammy was saying he was being dishonest. The BLM/twitter mobs lifted the attack on statues and symbols of past oppression from a background noise to front page news. I am cynical enough to acknowledge that the government response has been, "bring it on" for electoral reasons. Having a Corbynite foe of course makes life easy. SKS has been right not to play but Lammy is being disingenuous at best.
What he said - completely accurately - is that Labour is not talking about it, neither are the LibDems, the Greens or the SNP. The only party talking about it are the Tories. It's classic Cummings. His entire modus operando is about the creation of division. Given the mess the government is making of just about everything it goes near you can see why he is doing it. I just wonder whether it is sustainable for four years.
The 'gathering' of Loyalists in Glasgow yesterday and Saturday pretty much encapsulates this. Yesterday having once more found that nobody was actually attacking their precious monuments, the beered-up twats started in on the police, passers by and another faction of football supporters looking for a ruck. These guys are just gagging for an enemy within.
The other interesting point about Scotland and statues is how little reaction there has been to the vandalism of Bruce at Bannockburn - if we Scots were as obsessed with the past as the Tories and their fellow travellers down south [edit]* are (remember how they kept going on and on about Bannockburn in 2014) we'd be rioting too. But it's in fact: meh, some poor sod of a NTS stone conservator has to go out with the cleaning kit, glad it's not me ....
*Edit: some of the strongest reactions I saw on Twitter to the Bruce news (and not in support of the vandalism) were actually from staunch unionists.
Forgive me a wry smile.
Do the SNP not close their every annual conference re-brainwashing themselves as to how much they hate the English because of something that happened in 1314 or thereabouts?
"Scots, who have with Wallace bled, Scots, whom Bruce has often led, Welcome to your gory bed Or to victory."
The only political establishment more obsessed with historical victimhood I can think of are probably the Serbs.
There's a difference between securing national freedom and hating the English. A great many of the delegates there WERE English. Thet wouldn't be there if they didn't know the difference.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
"Rancid" - something that has gone bad "Gammon" - white person ruddy complexion racist gob "Petty" - describing a human being as worse than a dog "White scum"- see above
I wonder if notBluestBlue gets off on defending scum. Incidentally, surely the Bluest of Blue would be a Party member, activist, participant. Blue isn't a member. So isn't really Blue. Just Semi-Blue. Quasi-Blue. The Diet Coke of Blue.
I have no interest in defending that person.
What I do have an interest in is testing your supposed commitment to anti-racism, to see whether you will reveal it to be comically hypocritical and one-sided.
Which you have now done
Whatever Diet Coke-Blue. You absolutely are defending racism. Which is what many Tories do. Yet you are not a Tory so don't even have that excuse.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
Macron is using the virus as an excuse to further his agenda of keeping foreign contractors out of France. By far the harshest entry restrictions in the EU.
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
What a waste of time, I'd make him do 200 hours of community service cleaning the monuments over the next few weeks. Specifically monuments to non-white people like Gandhi and Mandela.
In fairness to the statues and the judge it wouldn't do the statues or their bases any good to be cleaned by people who don't know how to do it - it's very easy to do serious damage to stone and bronze with "cleaning" agents. You need specialist conservators to supervise and to do the work with the necessary light touch.
Then he can pick up all of the trash left by his fellow travellers around these monuments every weekend. Jail is just a massive overreaction that is going to inflame loads of people who see a bunch of vandals two weekends ago get no jail time.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
Agree that's one explanation for why the UK has problems now that France has substantially solved.
My point was that Scott's tweet is valid. The difference between the UK and other countries is too stark to be dismissed as playing games with statistics.
France still has double the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 and double the number in ICU than the UK has.
The UK will now be at or below average deaths for the time of year
Not sure hospitalisation and ICU rates are that useful as point to point comparison. Not all Covid 19 sufferers end up in hospital and not all those that die from it go through ICU. What we can say is that the deaths came down much faster in France compared with the UK.
The trend isn't our friend as far as the UK's epidemic response is concerned.
Isn't it a bit strange that according to official figures France's new infection count is far far less than the UKs, yet they have double in hospital and in ICUs?
I explained in my post why that isn't strange. Not all Covid 19 sufferers end up in hospital and not all those that die from it go through ICU.
Boris undoubtedly took a hit for keeping Cummings. He presumably concluded it was worth it. Too early to say if that was the right call or not.
The Tories have to keep their electoral coalition together. That will depend on ensuring continuing division along Brexit lines. No-one does disunity better than Dominic Cummings. The flaw in the plan may be that the opposition is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. As David Lammy observed this morning, the only people talking about statues being removed right now are the Tories. Can you fight a perpetual culture war against a non-existent foe?
If that's what Lammy was saying he was being dishonest. The BLM/twitter mobs lifted the attack on statues and symbols of past oppression from a background noise to front page news. I am cynical enough to acknowledge that the government response has been, "bring it on" for electoral reasons. Having a Corbynite foe of course makes life easy. SKS has been right not to play but Lammy is being disingenuous at best.
What he said - completely accurately - is that Labour is not talking about it, neither are the LibDems, the Greens or the SNP. The only party talking about it are the Tories. It's classic Cummings. His entire modus operando is about the creation of division. Given the mess the government is making of just about everything it goes near you can see why he is doing it. I just wonder whether it is sustainable for four years.
The 'gathering' of Loyalists in Glasgow yesterday and Saturday pretty much encapsulates this. Yesterday having once more found that nobody was actually attacking their precious monuments, the beered-up twats started in on the police, passers by and another faction of football supporters looking for a ruck. These guys are just gagging for an enemy within.
The other interesting point about Scotland and statues is how little reaction there has been to the vandalism of Bruce at Bannockburn - if we Scots were as obsessed with the past as the Tories and their fellow travellers down south [edit]* are (remember how they kept going on and on about Bannockburn in 2014) we'd be rioting too. But it's in fact: meh, some poor sod of a NTS stone conservator has to go out with the cleaning kit, glad it's not me ....
*Edit: some of the strongest reactions I saw on Twitter to the Bruce news (and not in support of the vandalism) were actually from staunch unionists.
Forgive me a wry smile.
Do the SNP not close their every annual conference re-brainwashing themselves as to how much they hate the English because of something that happened in 1314 or thereabouts?
"Scots, who have with Wallace bled, Scots, whom Bruce has often led, Welcome to your gory bed Or to victory."
The only political establishment more obsessed with historical victimhood I can think of are probably the Serbs.
There's a difference between securing national freedom and hating the English. A great many of the delegates there WERE English. Thet wouldn't be there if they didn't know the difference.
Never stand in the way of a PB Scotch expert explaining Scotland and the SNP to us. It's most enlightening..
Comparing final pre-election Johnson leader ratings to current Johnson leader ratings.
YouGov: Final pre-election: Approve 41%, Disapprove 52% (Net -11%) Most recent: Well 43%, Badly 50% (Net -7%)
2% Net swing from Badly to Approve
Opinium: Final pre-election: Well 33%, Badly 47% (Net -14%) Most recent: Approve 37%, Disapprove 43% (Net -6%)
4% Net swing from Disapprove to Well
IPSOS MORI: Final pre-election: Approve 36%, Disapprove 56% (Net -20%) Most recent: Satisfied 48%, Dissatisfied 49% (Net -1%)
9.5% Net swing from Dissatisfied to Approve
No Survation pre-election it seems to compare with. No recent Deltapoll to compare with.
So across all the pollsters there has been a net swing from pre-election in Boris's favour. Post-Cummings, post-COVID, post-Brexit as it stands the Johnson approval is higher as it stands than it was pre-election.
That is quite incredible.
Since the GE there has been a pandemic killing tens of thousands, the government has locked everyone up, closed the schools and shut the pubs, there are race riots in the streets, and Labour have a shiny new leader, yet the stats are there for all to see - Boris is better thought of today than he was when he won an 80 seat majority.
I wouldn't have believed it if you hadn't shown it to be so. Great analysis Philip, there's not a lot of it about.
Thank you Sam.
A more considered response than "A Boris fanboy in denial". I think its a shame OGH @MikeSmithson didn't reply in more detail to the analysis with the numbers involved.
That was a surprising remark. There is precious little analysis of polling trends on here nowadays, let alone betting. You'd think it'd be applauded.
Still, between us we've let the site know that Boris is as popular today as he was when he won the election, and leads Starmer by 34 points on personality.
Nice to have some polling figures to rebut the PB anecdotes
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
That is like saying one can't call a Nazi a Nazi, because the term Nazi is an offensive label that could cause offence. Ah, bless!
You're not good at basic logic, are you? The Nazis were indeed racists, but 'Nazi' is not in itself a racist term, but a technical description of political party.
The terms used by RochdalePioneers, however - 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' - are intrinsically racist in themselves, and thus are not suitable political epithets.
This really isn't hard to understand. But now you've dug yourself into a deep hole of hypocrisy and don't want to admit it, so no doubt you'll keep digging...
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Those UK figures will include a large proportion of deaths from well before the last 7 days also.
The UK statistics are basically a joke.
If the government had at any point in the past switched to the reporting deaths that happened yesterday, they would be attacked for trying to cover-up the real numbers. I think they are doing the right thing keeping things as they are.
I'm not suggesting a Spanish style numbers cover up, I'm saying we should move to date of death reporting, not date of reporting. That we have no way of easily seeing the week on week change of actual deaths is an absurd scandal. The running 7 day average of reported deaths is completely useless. The government data reporting is a complete shambles.
Agreed, but the problem is how do you actually move from reporting one set of stats to the other, without a totally ignorant and innumerate media screaming that the government are covering up deaths to make themselves look better?
Pissy man wasn't jailed for having a piss in the street. He was jailed for outraging public decency by pissing up against the type of thing he supposedly was there to defend. Yes he didn't know what it meant or who the memorial was for or probably how to get back to the rat hole he crawled out of. So what - you get that drunk whilst that stupid, there are consequences...
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
Agree that's one explanation for why the UK has problems now that France has substantially solved.
My point was that Scott's tweet is valid. The difference between the UK and other countries is too stark to be dismissed as playing games with statistics.
France still has double the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 and double the number in ICU than the UK has.
The UK will now be at or below average deaths for the time of year
Not sure hospitalisation and ICU rates are that useful as point to point comparison. Not all Covid 19 sufferers end up in hospital and not all those that die from it go through ICU. What we can say is that the deaths came down much faster in France compared with the UK.
The trend isn't our friend as far as the UK's epidemic response is concerned.
If that graph was done by date of death the the peak would by higher and the drop would be steeper. Our lack of drop is deaths is a statistical phantom.
Also, the FT charts (as above) are logarithmic plots of the 7-day moving average. If you plot their data on a linear chart, it would be an obviously higher peak & steeper fall - about a factor of 7 from peak to today.
(Log charts are good for observing changes in rates of change between widely differing scales, but are not good for comparing absolute quantities by eye.)
Pissy man wasn't jailed for having a piss in the street. He was jailed for outraging public decency by pissing up against the type of thing he supposedly was there to defend. Yes he didn't know what it meant or who the memorial was for or probably how to get back to the rat hole he crawled out of. So what - you get that drunk whilst that stupid, there are consequences...
Yeah but the law is there to cut through all the bollocks.
14 days might sound harsh - but his biggest problem is going to be the effect on his future employment and that would be the same with any 'sentence' I think.
Anyway the principle is established now so I expect anyone on any side caught graffitiing, or defacing any sort of memorial will now be treated similiarly even if that defacement is adjacent to the monument.
There's a principle established here, one which those on the other side might not entirely like.
I hope the police are reviewing footage and identifying offenders for other memorials and so forth, sauce for geese and ganders.
Pissy man wasn't jailed for having a piss in the street. He was jailed for outraging public decency by pissing up against the type of thing he supposedly was there to defend. Yes he didn't know what it meant or who the memorial was for or probably how to get back to the rat hole he crawled out of. So what - you get that drunk whilst that stupid, there are consequences...
Crimes should be for what you do not what the Daily Mail thinks about it, there should not be an offence of "outraging public decency".
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
That is like saying one can't call a Nazi a Nazi, because the term Nazi is an offensive label that could cause offence. Ah, bless!
You're not good at basic logic, are you? The Nazis were indeed racists, but 'Nazi' is not in itself a racist term, but a technical description of political party.
The terms used by RochdalePioneers, however - 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' - are intrinsically racist in themselves, and thus are not suitable political epithets.
This really isn't hard to understand. But now you've dug yourself into a deep hole of hypocrisy and don't want to admit it, so no doubt you'll keep digging...
Problem is that as one of the leading absurd chanters on here you aren't in a place to talk about deep holes and hypocrisy. Its the same as Hartley-Brewer defending pissy man on twitter, it makes the poster look bad.
Please do keep it up. Being upset about "gammon" and not about black people being "worse than dogs". Its a good look for you. Incidentally - your non-membership of the party you claim to be the bluest of. Have they banned you...?
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
That is like saying one can't call a Nazi a Nazi, because the term Nazi is an offensive label that could cause offence. Ah, bless!
You're not good at basic logic, are you? The Nazis were indeed racists, but 'Nazi' is not in itself a racist term, but a technical description of political party.
The terms used by RochdalePioneers, however - 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' - are intrinsically racist in themselves, and thus are not suitable political epithets.
This really isn't hard to understand. But now you've dug yourself into a deep hole of hypocrisy and don't want to admit it, so no doubt you'll keep digging...
I am white and middle aged, but I find "gammon" very amusing. It is not racist because while it is probably necessary to be white to be a gammon, you are not automatically a gammon if you are white. You do have to be angry and prejudiced, so if the hat fits Mr Blue, lol. I think it would be a good description also for many Scottish Nationalists, as well as their similarly angry English nationalist lookalikes. You don't get much more gammon like than Malcolmg.
14 days might sound harsh - but his biggest problem is going to be the effect on his future employment and that would be the same with any 'sentence' I think.
Anyway the principle is established now so I expect anyone on any side caught graffitiing, or defacing any sort of memorial will now be treated similiarly even if that defacement is adjacent to the monument.
There's a principle established here, one which those on the other side might not entirely like.
I hope the police are reviewing footage and identifying offenders for other memorials and so forth, sauce for geese and ganders.
I have to say, i was / am concerned about those shown openly insighting violence, the monkey chants, the raiding the park and spitting in people's faces because of their colour etc and the resulting mob violence. It is bad enough when somebody does that at say the football, but in such a highly charged atmosphere it could and nearly did result in deaths (according to the guy who pulled somebody out of the mob).
A Ramadan wave of infections and death from the Covid is now evident in many countries: Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Iraq.
A Ramadan wave of infections and death from the Covid is now evident in many countries: Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Iraq.
Iran's decision to open the mosques like normal was incredible decision.
14 days might sound harsh - but his biggest problem is going to be the effect on his future employment and that would be the same with any 'sentence' I think.
Anyway the principle is established now so I expect anyone on any side caught graffitiing, or defacing any sort of memorial will now be treated similiarly even if that defacement is adjacent to the monument.
There's a principle established here, one which those on the other side might not entirely like.
I hope the police are reviewing footage and identifying offenders for other memorials and so forth, sauce for geese and ganders.
The principe was established a while back. High-profile misdemenours do tend to attract harsher sentences. It happened after the 2011 riots and to Dave Gilmour's student son.
Comparing final pre-election Johnson leader ratings to current Johnson leader ratings.
YouGov: Final pre-election: Approve 41%, Disapprove 52% (Net -11%) Most recent: Well 43%, Badly 50% (Net -7%)
2% Net swing from Badly to Approve
Opinium: Final pre-election: Well 33%, Badly 47% (Net -14%) Most recent: Approve 37%, Disapprove 43% (Net -6%)
4% Net swing from Disapprove to Well
IPSOS MORI: Final pre-election: Approve 36%, Disapprove 56% (Net -20%) Most recent: Satisfied 48%, Dissatisfied 49% (Net -1%)
9.5% Net swing from Dissatisfied to Approve
No Survation pre-election it seems to compare with. No recent Deltapoll to compare with.
So across all the pollsters there has been a net swing from pre-election in Boris's favour. Post-Cummings, post-COVID, post-Brexit as it stands the Johnson approval is higher as it stands than it was pre-election.
That is quite incredible.
Since the GE there has been a pandemic killing tens of thousands, the government has locked everyone up, closed the schools and shut the pubs, there are race riots in the streets, and Labour have a shiny new leader, yet the stats are there for all to see - Boris is better thought of today than he was when he won an 80 seat majority.
I wouldn't have believed it if you hadn't shown it to be so. Great analysis Philip, there's not a lot of it about.
Thank you Sam.
A more considered response than "A Boris fanboy in denial". I think its a shame OGH @MikeSmithson didn't reply in more detail to the analysis with the numbers involved.
Personally, I think Boris started off with an enormous buffer of goodwill: the "get Brexit done" dividend if you will.
It appears he’s managed to burn through most of that buffer before the country has had to face any of the difficulties it will have navigating the actual Brexit instead of the phony war of the last few years. A brave choice!
14 days might sound harsh - but his biggest problem is going to be the effect on his future employment and that would be the same with any 'sentence' I think.
Anyway the principle is established now so I expect anyone on any side caught graffitiing, or defacing any sort of memorial will now be treated similiarly even if that defacement is adjacent to the monument.
There's a principle established here, one which those on the other side might not entirely like.
I hope the police are reviewing footage and identifying offenders for other memorials and so forth, sauce for geese and ganders.
I have to say, i was / am concerned about those shown openly insighting violence, the monkey chants etc and the resulting mob violence. It is bad enough when somebody does that at say the football, but in such a highly charged atmosphere it could and nearly did result in deaths (according to the guy who pulled somebody out of the mob).
The monkey chant guy, and one clearly was identified on a video I've seen must receive longer than a 14 day sentence. That's as clear an incitement to racial violence as I've seen from the protests. Anyone kicking someone from the other side on the floor. Well that needs longer than the monkey guy as that's actual violence. & so on and so forth. Sentences were harsher during the riots than normal in 2011, these need to be similiarly so.
Pissy man wasn't jailed for having a piss in the street. He was jailed for outraging public decency by pissing up against the type of thing he supposedly was there to defend. Yes he didn't know what it meant or who the memorial was for or probably how to get back to the rat hole he crawled out of. So what - you get that drunk whilst that stupid, there are consequences...
Crimes should be for what you do not what the Daily Mail thinks about it, there should not be an offence of "outraging public decency".
Perhaps - proposals have been made to reform these old laws which the government have chosen not to enact. The law is the law - he got done.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
Agree that's one explanation for why the UK has problems now that France has substantially solved.
My point was that Scott's tweet is valid. The difference between the UK and other countries is too stark to be dismissed as playing games with statistics.
France still has double the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 and double the number in ICU than the UK has.
The UK will now be at or below average deaths for the time of year
Not sure hospitalisation and ICU rates are that useful as point to point comparison. Not all Covid 19 sufferers end up in hospital and not all those that die from it go through ICU. What we can say is that the deaths came down much faster in France compared with the UK.
The trend isn't our friend as far as the UK's epidemic response is concerned.
If that graph was done by date of death the the peak would by higher and the drop would be steeper. Our lack of drop is deaths is a statistical phantom.
Also, the FT charts (as above) are logarithmic plots of the 7-day moving average. If you plot their data on a linear chart, it would be an obviously higher peak & steeper fall - about a factor of 7 from peak to today.
(Log charts are good for observing changes in rates of change between widely differing scales, but are not good for comparing absolute quantities by eye.)
Reason why I selected Log scale was that the absolute numbers now are all down at the X axis because all countries, UK included, are well off the peak. Log scale means that differences between countries now is visually downplayed. The UK comparative situation is actually worse than it might look.
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
That's ridiculous. Jeez I would be amazed if he knew where the f**k he was peeing. Or was it just for peeing in public? If so fire up the police quattros for any number of events, London Marathon (like a river of pee as I remember it), and just about every Saturday night anywhere, as was.
Amazing lack of common sense by just about everyone, including him, of course, but really.
No other 'Football lad' took a piss in the street? No one at all at any BLM demo over the last ten days? With public toilets, pubs, or restaurants, hotels open?
He was charged with Outraging Public Decency, which is a lewd, obscene or disgusting public display. So not dependent on knowing it was a memorial.
Technically it is an unlimited fine or imprisonment.
Comparing final pre-election Johnson leader ratings to current Johnson leader ratings.
YouGov: Final pre-election: Approve 41%, Disapprove 52% (Net -11%) Most recent: Well 43%, Badly 50% (Net -7%)
2% Net swing from Badly to Approve
Opinium: Final pre-election: Well 33%, Badly 47% (Net -14%) Most recent: Approve 37%, Disapprove 43% (Net -6%)
4% Net swing from Disapprove to Well
IPSOS MORI: Final pre-election: Approve 36%, Disapprove 56% (Net -20%) Most recent: Satisfied 48%, Dissatisfied 49% (Net -1%)
9.5% Net swing from Dissatisfied to Approve
No Survation pre-election it seems to compare with. No recent Deltapoll to compare with.
So across all the pollsters there has been a net swing from pre-election in Boris's favour. Post-Cummings, post-COVID, post-Brexit as it stands the Johnson approval is higher as it stands than it was pre-election.
That is quite incredible.
Since the GE there has been a pandemic killing tens of thousands, the government has locked everyone up, closed the schools and shut the pubs, there are race riots in the streets, and Labour have a shiny new leader, yet the stats are there for all to see - Boris is better thought of today than he was when he won an 80 seat majority.
I wouldn't have believed it if you hadn't shown it to be so. Great analysis Philip, there's not a lot of it about.
Thank you Sam.
A more considered response than "A Boris fanboy in denial". I think its a shame OGH @MikeSmithson didn't reply in more detail to the analysis with the numbers involved.
That was a surprising remark. There is precious little analysis of polling trends on here nowadays, let alone betting. You'd think it'd be applauded.
Still, between us we've let the site know that Boris is as popular today as he was when he won the election, and leads Starmer by 34 points on personality.
Nice to have some polling figures to rebut the PB anecdotes
"Boris" as you so lovingly refer to him is an incompetent buffoon. Even other buffoons are catching up with that fact. Eventually even the two of you might do so. The only reason he won the last election was because the LoTO was even more ridiculous than he was. The Tory clown was considered less unappealing than the Labour/Marxist variety
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
That is like saying one can't call a Nazi a Nazi, because the term Nazi is an offensive label that could cause offence. Ah, bless!
You're not good at basic logic, are you? The Nazis were indeed racists, but 'Nazi' is not in itself a racist term, but a technical description of political party.
The terms used by RochdalePioneers, however - 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' - are intrinsically racist in themselves, and thus are not suitable political epithets.
This really isn't hard to understand. But now you've dug yourself into a deep hole of hypocrisy and don't want to admit it, so no doubt you'll keep digging...
Problem is that as one of the leading absurd chanters on here you aren't in a place to talk about deep holes and hypocrisy. Its the same as Hartley-Brewer defending pissy man on twitter, it makes the poster look bad.
Please do keep it up. Being upset about "gammon" and not about black people being "worse than dogs". Its a good look for you. Incidentally - your non-membership of the party you claim to be the bluest of. Have they banned you...?
I'll ask you again. Is the term you used - 'petty white scum' - racist or not? I think it obviously is, and so you don't have a leg to stand on in criticizing what anyone else might say, because you only care about racist language as a political tool, not out of principle. If you cared about it in principle, you'd obviously never use it yourself.
I have no idea why you're so obsessed about my lack of party membership. I've never applied to or joined any political party, because I've always seen it as a niche interest and I don't much like dull meetings.
It is however amusing that you have been banned from your own party, or one of them, anyway
You're not good at basic logic, are you? The Nazis were indeed racists, but 'Nazi' is not in itself a racist term, but a technical description of political party.
The terms used by RochdalePioneers, however - 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' - are intrinsically racist in themselves, and thus are not suitable political epithets.
This really isn't hard to understand. But now you've dug yourself into a deep hole of hypocrisy and don't want to admit it, so no doubt you'll keep digging...
Racism = power + prejudice. White people have the power so no pejorative directed at them is racist.
A Ramadan wave of infections and death from the Covid is now evident in many countries: Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Iraq.
Iran's decision to open the mosques like normal was incredible decision.
Quite a few decisions are looking a bit rough in retrospect. The Cheltenham Festival appears to have been a istake and as for Liverpool v A Madrid......
Valid points being made about the need for balanced policing. I know that a lot of arrests were made in London across both weekends - I assume that prosecutions are being made for the scum who were attacking the police regardless of which side they were on? And of defacing or missiling monuments and statues?
OGH says, "What I find remarkable is how little the leader rating change is reflected in the voting figures."
I agree and wonder how far that reflects the deep damage Corbyn did to the Labour brand. In other words, are people saying they are impressed by Starmer but worry that his party will hobble or even ditch him if they get into office?
What it speaks to is Starmer's urgent need for a "Militant moment" - a very visible event that says, "This is MY party now". I've little doubt that Starmer's team are working on how to engineer that, whether through the antisemitism work, the postponed conference (if it ever happens) or otherwise. But I think there's a danger, if they can't make it happen in the next six months, it won't happen at all.
When is the EHRC report on antisemitism due to be published?
If that report says what most of us expect it to, that’s going to be Starmer’s one chance to expel the New Militant.
That he kept Rebecca Long-Bailey in his Cabinet was a worrying start.
I expect Starmer to accept the conclusions of the report. I also expect many of the twitter Corbynite diehards to dispute it.
What does RLB do? If she backs her current leader, that's a win for Starmer. If she joins the diehards and he sacks her, that's a win for Starmer.
14 days might sound harsh - but his biggest problem is going to be the effect on his future employment and that would be the same with any 'sentence' I think.
Anyway the principle is established now so I expect anyone on any side caught graffitiing, or defacing any sort of memorial will now be treated similiarly even if that defacement is adjacent to the monument.
There's a principle established here, one which those on the other side might not entirely like.
I hope the police are reviewing footage and identifying offenders for other memorials and so forth, sauce for geese and ganders.
The principe was established a while back. High-profile misdemenours do tend to attract harsher sentences. It happened after the 2011 riots and to Dave Gilmour's student son.
Not sure if urinating on a monument counts as defacing - I suppose it depends on how corrosive your urine is - but the penalty for defacing a war memorial is, as of last October, 10 years in jail. A few of those handed down might make people think twice.
Pissy man wasn't jailed for having a piss in the street. He was jailed for outraging public decency by pissing up against the type of thing he supposedly was there to defend. Yes he didn't know what it meant or who the memorial was for or probably how to get back to the rat hole he crawled out of. So what - you get that drunk whilst that stupid, there are consequences...
Yeah but the law is there to cut through all the bollocks.
It didn't appear to in this instance.
Certainly seems harsh for taking a piss. Sure, he's an idiot but if all us fuckwits were put in jail....
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
I'm not sure that that is relevant.
Was the *effect* any different. I don't recall significant differences in fall in transport usage, for example.
There was a comparative graph from Google data on Twitter somewhere, and I can't find it.
UK's lockdown was certainly not far softer than Germany's. A bit harder (and quite a bit longer) so far as I can tell. No doubt there are other European countries that also had softer lockdowns.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
I'm not sure that that is relevant.
Was the *effect* any different. I don't recall significant differences in fall in transport usage, for example.
There was a comparative graph from Google data on Twitter somewhere, and I can't find it.
UK's lockdown was certainly not far softer than Germany's. A bit harder (and quite a bit longer) so far as I can tell. No doubt there are other European countries that also had softer lockdowns.
Comparing final pre-election Johnson leader ratings to current Johnson leader ratings.
YouGov: Final pre-election: Approve 41%, Disapprove 52% (Net -11%) Most recent: Well 43%, Badly 50% (Net -7%)
2% Net swing from Badly to Approve
Opinium: Final pre-election: Well 33%, Badly 47% (Net -14%) Most recent: Approve 37%, Disapprove 43% (Net -6%)
4% Net swing from Disapprove to Well
IPSOS MORI: Final pre-election: Approve 36%, Disapprove 56% (Net -20%) Most recent: Satisfied 48%, Dissatisfied 49% (Net -1%)
9.5% Net swing from Dissatisfied to Approve
No Survation pre-election it seems to compare with. No recent Deltapoll to compare with.
So across all the pollsters there has been a net swing from pre-election in Boris's favour. Post-Cummings, post-COVID, post-Brexit as it stands the Johnson approval is higher as it stands than it was pre-election.
A Boris fanboy in denial
I'm literally quoting numbers.
Do you dispute a single one of the numbers I quoted? You've regularly done thread headers based upon pollsters final pre-election numbers haven't you? Do you dispute final pre-election polls as a reasonable baseline?
In this context looking at what's happened in May and June then the pre-election baseline is nonsense and you know it. The pandemic and the lockdown have changed the world and our politics you are just desperate to find some way of keeping the Boris flag flying.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
"Rancid" - something that has gone bad "Gammon" - white person ruddy complexion racist gob "Petty" - describing a human being as worse than a dog "White scum"- see above
I wonder if notBluestBlue gets off on defending scum. Incidentally, surely the Bluest of Blue would be a Party member, activist, participant. Blue isn't a member. So isn't really Blue. Just Semi-Blue. Quasi-Blue. The Diet Coke of Blue.
I have no interest in defending that person.
What I do have an interest in is testing your supposed commitment to anti-racism, to see whether you will reveal it to be comically hypocritical and one-sided.
Which you have now done
Whatever Diet Coke-Blue. You absolutely are defending racism. Which is what many Tories do. Yet you are not a Tory so don't even have that excuse.
You haven't even begun to condemn this. You are are a racist of the worst kind. You just hate white people
Its appalling. It was appalling when it was the weekend before - violence and thuggery is wrong. But yes, I hate white people. I hate myself. I hate my children, my wife, my parents, my friends. I hate them all - why? I don't of course, but I do hate the people who have the same skin colour and nationality and gender as me who think they have to defend me and mine by rocking drunkenly into town to fight our enemy (black people) and when they don't find them start fighting the police and people in parks and throwing missiles at statues. I absolutely hate these tiny-cocked inadequate "men" who think they have the right to claim ownership of me, my race, my country.
Boris undoubtedly took a hit for keeping Cummings. He presumably concluded it was worth it. Too early to say if that was the right call or not.
The Tories have to keep their electoral coalition together. That will depend on ensuring continuing division along Brexit lines. No-one does disunity better than Dominic Cummings. The flaw in the plan may be that the opposition is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. As David Lammy observed this morning, the only people talking about statues being removed right now are the Tories. Can you fight a perpetual culture war against a non-existent foe?
If that's what Lammy was saying he was being dishonest. The BLM/twitter mobs lifted the attack on statues and symbols of past oppression from a background noise to front page news. I am cynical enough to acknowledge that the government response has been, "bring it on" for electoral reasons. Having a Corbynite foe of course makes life easy. SKS has been right not to play but Lammy is being disingenuous at best.
What he said - completely accurately - is that Labour is not talking about it, neither are the LibDems, the Greens or the SNP. The only party talking about it are the Tories. It's classic Cummings. His entire modus operando is about the creation of division. Given the mess the government is making of just about everything it goes near you can see why he is doing it. I just wonder whether it is sustainable for four years.
The 'gathering' of Loyalists in Glasgow yesterday and Saturday pretty much encapsulates this. Yesterday having once more found that nobody was actually attacking their precious monuments, the beered-up twats started in on the police, passers by and another faction of football supporters looking for a ruck. These guys are just gagging for an enemy within.
The other interesting point about Scotland and statues is how little reaction there has been to the vandalism of Bruce at Bannockburn - if we Scots were as obsessed with the past as the Tories and their fellow travellers down south [edit]* are (remember how they kept going on and on about Bannockburn in 2014) we'd be rioting too. But it's in fact: meh, some poor sod of a NTS stone conservator has to go out with the cleaning kit, glad it's not me ....
*Edit: some of the strongest reactions I saw on Twitter to the Bruce news (and not in support of the vandalism) were actually from staunch unionists.
Forgive me a wry smile.
Do the SNP not close their every annual conference re-brainwashing themselves as to how much they hate the English because of something that happened in 1314 or thereabouts?
"Scots, who have with Wallace bled, Scots, whom Bruce has often led, Welcome to your gory bed Or to victory."
The only political establishment more obsessed with historical victimhood I can think of are probably the Serbs.
There's a difference between securing national freedom and hating the English. A great many of the delegates there WERE English. Thet wouldn't be there if they didn't know the difference.
Never stand in the way of a PB Scotch expert explaining Scotland and the SNP to us. It's most enlightening..
You'll note I didn't say "Scottish".
I think the SNP handling of itself over a number of decades is quitet clear enough.
You're not good at basic logic, are you? The Nazis were indeed racists, but 'Nazi' is not in itself a racist term, but a technical description of political party.
The terms used by RochdalePioneers, however - 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' - are intrinsically racist in themselves, and thus are not suitable political epithets.
This really isn't hard to understand. But now you've dug yourself into a deep hole of hypocrisy and don't want to admit it, so no doubt you'll keep digging...
Racism = power + prejudice. White people have the power so no pejorative directed at them is racist.
Yes, I'm familiar with that Marxist reasoning. Like most of their bullshit, it's incredibly convenient and self-serving, because according to their logic the group with 'power' (however they define it) is automatically in the wrong, and the moral principles that the left claim are universal magically become universal no longer when it comes to being shitty towards them.
That formulation held in polytechnic sociology departments for a long time, but I'm afraid most people have seen right through it now.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
Agree that's one explanation for why the UK has problems now that France has substantially solved.
My point was that Scott's tweet is valid. The difference between the UK and other countries is too stark to be dismissed as playing games with statistics.
France still has double the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 and double the number in ICU than the UK has.
The UK will now be at or below average deaths for the time of year
Not sure hospitalisation and ICU rates are that useful as point to point comparison. Not all Covid 19 sufferers end up in hospital and not all those that die from it go through ICU. What we can say is that the deaths came down much faster in France compared with the UK.
The trend isn't our friend as far as the UK's epidemic response is concerned.
If that graph was done by date of death the the peak would by higher and the drop would be steeper. Our lack of drop is deaths is a statistical phantom.
Also, the FT charts (as above) are logarithmic plots of the 7-day moving average. If you plot their data on a linear chart, it would be an obviously higher peak & steeper fall - about a factor of 7 from peak to today.
(Log charts are good for observing changes in rates of change between widely differing scales, but are not good for comparing absolute quantities by eye.)
Reason why I selected Log scale was that the absolute numbers now are all down at the X axis because all countries, UK included, are well off the peak. Log scale means that differences between countries now is visually downplayed. The UK comparative situation is actually worse than it might look.
Daily Average number of Covid-19 deaths in the last 7 days (8-14th June)
In alphabetical order Belgium 8 France 36 Germany 13 Italy 63 Spain 0 Sweden 31 UK 165
A Ramadan wave of infections and death from the Covid is now evident in many countries: Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Iraq.
Iran's decision to open the mosques like normal was incredible decision.
Quite a few decisions are looking a bit rough in retrospect. The Cheltenham Festival appears to have been a istake and as for Liverpool v A Madrid......
3,000 or so supporters came over from Madrid for a single day. Meanwhile, 200,000 people were returning from a holiday in Spain every day for about a fortnight.
60,000 were at Cheltenham Meanwhile 5,000,000 people were using the tube.
It was the late lockdown that was the problem, not specific events that were allowed before it was brought in.
Boris undoubtedly took a hit for keeping Cummings. He presumably concluded it was worth it. Too early to say if that was the right call or not.
The Tories have to keep their electoral coalition together. That will depend on ensuring continuing division along Brexit lines. No-one does disunity better than Dominic Cummings. The flaw in the plan may be that the opposition is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn. As David Lammy observed this morning, the only people talking about statues being removed right now are the Tories. Can you fight a perpetual culture war against a non-existent foe?
If that's what Lammy was saying he was being dishonest. The BLM/twitter mobs lifted the attack on statues and symbols of past oppression from a background noise to front page news. I am cynical enough to acknowledge that the government response has been, "bring it on" for electoral reasons. Having a Corbynite foe of course makes life easy. SKS has been right not to play but Lammy is being disingenuous at best.
What he said - completely accurately - is that Labour is not talking about it, neither are the LibDems, the Greens or the SNP. The only party talking about it are the Tories. It's classic Cummings. His entire modus operando is about the creation of division. Given the mess the government is making of just about everything it goes near you can see why he is doing it. I just wonder whether it is sustainable for four years.
The 'gathering' of Loyalists in Glasgow yesterday and Saturday pretty much encapsulates this. Yesterday having once more found that nobody was actually attacking their precious monuments, the beered-up twats started in on the police, passers by and another faction of football supporters looking for a ruck. These guys are just gagging for an enemy within.
The other interesting point about Scotland and statues is how little reaction there has been to the vandalism of Bruce at Bannockburn - if we Scots were as obsessed with the past as the Tories and their fellow travellers down south [edit]* are (remember how they kept going on and on about Bannockburn in 2014) we'd be rioting too. But it's in fact: meh, some poor sod of a NTS stone conservator has to go out with the cleaning kit, glad it's not me ....
*Edit: some of the strongest reactions I saw on Twitter to the Bruce news (and not in support of the vandalism) were actually from staunch unionists.
Forgive me a wry smile.
Do the SNP not close their every annual conference re-brainwashing themselves as to how much they hate the English because of something that happened in 1314 or thereabouts?
"Scots, who have with Wallace bled, Scots, whom Bruce has often led, Welcome to your gory bed Or to victory."
The only political establishment more obsessed with historical victimhood I can think of are probably the Serbs.
There's a difference between securing national freedom and hating the English. A great many of the delegates there WERE English. Thet wouldn't be there if they didn't know the difference.
Never stand in the way of a PB Scotch expert explaining Scotland and the SNP to us. It's most enlightening..
You'll note I didn't say "Scottish".
I think the SNP handling of itself over a number of decades is quitet clear enough.
It's also an interesting point that this expert ascribes such a high importance to 1314 and yet does not explain the lack of frenzied speeches in defence of people who dared to defeat the English, huge demos and counter-demos outside Stirling, etc. etc.
For all the jokes people are making about people being desperate to be at Primark, the 2 metre rule (At least outside) seems to be being adhered to.
However the scenes from the Nike store in Oxford street are a disgrace and will have many small business owners shaking their heads. It should probably be shut on health and safety grounds as there was clearly no social distancing going on outside the shop.
Comments
I agree and wonder how far that reflects the deep damage Corbyn did to the Labour brand. In other words, are people saying they are impressed by Starmer but worry that his party will hobble or even ditch him if they get into office?
What it speaks to is Starmer's urgent need for a "Militant moment" - a very visible event that says, "This is MY party now". I've little doubt that Starmer's team are working on how to engineer that, whether through the antisemitism work, the postponed conference (if it ever happens) or otherwise. But I think there's a danger, if they can't make it happen in the next six months, it won't happen at all.
"To an extent perhaps still not fully appreciated, this Number 10 is obsessed with polling and focus grouping, which they conduct daily, and how things are projected in the media. “The problem with this government is that it is led by journalists,” says one senior official. “Action this day” was one of Winston Churchill’s famous injunctions. For Boris Johnson, it has been: “An empty pledge to get me through the day.” Where energy ought to have been directed to making important things happen, it was expended on concocting brags that might temporarily garner approving headlines or neutralise hostile ones. The result has been a persistent pattern of over-promising and underperforming."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/14/even-tories-increasingly-fear-they-have-inflicted-the-worst-of-all-worlds-on-britain
Better one sinner, etc
"Gammon" - white person ruddy complexion racist gob
"Petty" - describing a human being as worse than a dog
"White scum"- see above
I wonder if notBluestBlue gets off on defending scum. Incidentally, surely the Bluest of Blue would be a Party member, activist, participant. Blue isn't a member. So isn't really Blue. Just Semi-Blue. Quasi-Blue. The Diet Coke of Blue.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1272220455974428675?s=19
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1272220464480387072?s=19
Am I surprised?
Nope
Since the GE there has been a pandemic killing tens of thousands, the government has locked everyone up, closed the schools and shut the pubs, there are race riots in the streets, and Labour have a shiny new leader, yet the stats are there for all to see - Boris is better thought of today than he was when he won an 80 seat majority.
I wouldn't have believed it if you hadn't shown it to be so. Great analysis Philip, there's not a lot of it about.
I think using racist terms for racists tells you exactly about my principles. And your defence of these racists and their views tells me about the sincerity of your principles. Well, lack of principles.
The government just haven't got a clue.
What we need is by death date, split into hospitals, homes and carehomes and the headline number should reflect the number from 7 days ago with a dotted line through the most recent days.
The trend isn't our friend as far as the UK's epidemic response is concerned.
Was the *effect* any different. I don't recall significant differences in fall in transport usage, for example.
There was a comparative graph from Google data on Twitter somewhere, and I can't find it.
A more considered response than "A Boris fanboy in denial". I think its a shame OGH @MikeSmithson didn't reply in more detail to the analysis with the numbers involved.
The Russian figures are a hoot, or would be if you didn't care about the poor sods that live there.
Now, you might say that nobody's vote has ever been changed by any satirical production. I think the creators of Private Eye pointed out the huge success of 1930's Berlin cabaret. But sometimes unfair comedic images do stick; Maggie in a man's suit, grey John Major, Blair teasing Prescott for still being a lefty. And if BoJo's satirical image goes from Dulux dog made human to Dom's victim in a No 10 dungeon, that won't help him.
https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1272476777936490496?s=20
Amazing lack of common sense by just about everyone, including him, of course, but really.
What I do have an interest in is testing your supposed commitment to anti-racism, to see whether you will reveal it to be comically hypocritical and one-sided.
Which you have now done
It's interesting though that the only statue to cause a riot was of William. And nobody demonstrated against it, let alone vandalised it.
A nasty anti-Semite maybe, but he is rather svelte for a man of his years.
Like the rest of the "lads" who headed into town to fight black people they couldn't give a toss about statues. Didn't have a clue before the drinking started who most of them were for, never mind after all that delicious lager. Just mindless scum wanting a fight because his definition of manhood is so shallow that he has to be HARD otherwise people might notice how pathetic he really is.
If that report says what most of us expect it to, that’s going to be Starmer’s one chance to expel the New Militant.
Yes, it tells me that you don't actually believe that racism is a bad thing in principle, you just believe that racism should be directed at different targets.
Which makes you really quite a laughable hypocrite.
Do the SNP not close their every annual conference re-brainwashing themselves as to how much they hate the English because of something that happened in 1314 or thereabouts?
"Scots, who have with Wallace bled,
Scots, whom Bruce has often led,
Welcome to your gory bed
Or to victory."
The only political establishment more obsessed with historical victimhood I can think of are probably the Serbs.
I'll refrain from posting the video. No I won't.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gnEBv4Mbmo
By far the harshest entry restrictions in the EU.
Still, between us we've let the site know that Boris is as popular today as he was when he won the election, and leads Starmer by 34 points on personality.
Nice to have some polling figures to rebut the PB anecdotes
https://twitter.com/_HelenDale/status/1272464474331545605?s=19
The terms used by RochdalePioneers, however - 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' - are intrinsically racist in themselves, and thus are not suitable political epithets.
This really isn't hard to understand. But now you've dug yourself into a deep hole of hypocrisy and don't want to admit it, so no doubt you'll keep digging...
https://twitter.com/kirkkorner/status/1272478259243028482?s=20
(Log charts are good for observing changes in rates of change between widely differing scales, but are not good for comparing absolute quantities by eye.)
Here’s a link to a linear plot of UK deaths/million so far: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=deaths
It didn't appear to in this instance.
Anyway the principle is established now so I expect anyone on any side caught graffitiing, or defacing any sort of memorial will now be treated similiarly even if that defacement is adjacent to the monument.
There's a principle established here, one which those on the other side might not entirely like.
I hope the police are reviewing footage and identifying offenders for other memorials and so forth, sauce for geese and ganders.
Please do keep it up. Being upset about "gammon" and not about black people being "worse than dogs". Its a good look for you. Incidentally - your non-membership of the party you claim to be the bluest of. Have they banned you...?
It appears he’s managed to burn through most of that buffer before the country has had to face any of the difficulties it will have navigating the actual Brexit instead of the phony war of the last few years. A brave choice!
Anyone kicking someone from the other side on the floor. Well that needs longer than the monkey guy as that's actual violence. & so on and so forth. Sentences were harsher during the riots than normal in 2011, these need to be similiarly so.
Technically it is an unlimited fine or imprisonment.
I have no idea why you're so obsessed about my lack of party membership. I've never applied to or joined any political party, because I've always seen it as a niche interest and I don't much like dull meetings.
It is however amusing that you have been banned from your own party, or one of them, anyway
What does RLB do? If she backs her current leader, that's a win for Starmer. If she joins the diehards and he sacks her, that's a win for Starmer.
Anything else and he loses.
https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1272487468688977921
I think the SNP handling of itself over a number of decades is quitet clear enough.
That formulation held in polytechnic sociology departments for a long time, but I'm afraid most people have seen right through it now.
On the same principle, I hope whoever this was will receive due punishment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8m1vfG5Efo
In alphabetical order
Belgium 8
France 36
Germany 13
Italy 63
Spain 0
Sweden 31
UK 165
Source Worldometers
Meanwhile, 200,000 people were returning from a holiday in Spain every day for about a fortnight.
60,000 were at Cheltenham
Meanwhile 5,000,000 people were using the tube.
It was the late lockdown that was the problem, not specific events that were allowed before it was brought in.
However the scenes from the Nike store in Oxford street are a disgrace and will have many small business owners shaking their heads. It should probably be shut on health and safety grounds as there was clearly no social distancing going on outside the shop.