Media astonished there seems to be a lot of demand for the shops
The same media who have been running "Countdown To Shopping Day" on the front pages for the past week, are now surprised that people went shopping today?
I would have thought that having posted here for so long, you would by now have realised that the verb 'caves in' only helps one person and his party.
and we all know who that is. Farage wants you to write 'caves in'. He wants you to write 'supine'. He wants you to write 'capitulates' 'betrays' etc.
The Conservatives need to learn that they cannot appease the likes of Farage and instead stand up to him. It's their framing of the relationship with the EU as adversarial that sets them up to look weak.
OK guys, do we all remember the Google Churchill kerfuffle? We should do, it was yesterday.
Here's another one, which is even weirder
Go to Youtube, and select a random video. Doesn't matter which one. Add this comment underneath:
"Black Lives Matter violence"
Within 30 seconds or so, it will be automatically deleted. I'm not joking. I did it last night, and I did it this morning: same result both times.
Now I can understand why Youtube might censor certain racist terms. But if you want to comment that this is "Black Lives Matter violence", which is not racist, just an opinion, you cannot.
Same goes for things like "this is black violence", or "what about black violence". They just disappear.
YouTube is preventing commenters from simply expressing lawful opinions
Draining the swamp.
You know the owners of these gigantic media companies are billionaires, and perhaps due to become trillionaires in the not-too-distant future?
What happens if a popular movement for the redistribution of wealth rises up and gets itself completely censored by said media billionaires? Because you can sure they'll justify it as 'draining the swamp' too...
We'll cross that bridge when we (don't) come to it. In the meantime, I am not going to get upset about it becoming more difficult to spread racist propaganda. Sorry, but that's how I feel about this. Slippery slope, go and have a natter with yourself in the corner, I'm living in the here and now.
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
Yes and also a couple of countries have issues with accuracy of reporting. Nevertheless infections are running many times higher in the UK than anywhere else in Europe, except Sweden. The difference is too big to explain, except that the UK has problems that other countries don't have.
The UK lockdown was far softer than other nations.
In France leaving the home without the official paperwork authorising you to do so and explaining when, where and why you are going was subject to a hefty fine. In the UK you could go out and about whenever you wanted and just needed to say you had a good reason if asked why.
I'm not sure that that is relevant.
Was the *effect* any different. I don't recall significant differences in fall in transport usage, for example.
There was a comparative graph from Google data on Twitter somewhere, and I can't find it.
UK's lockdown was certainly not far softer than Germany's. A bit harder (and quite a bit longer) so far as I can tell. No doubt there are other European countries that also had softer lockdowns.
Much softer than France, I believe.
And Spain, and Italy.
Knowing what we know now (and usual disclaimer, I'm a physicist who teaches GCSE science, so I know a bit of biology but not much...) it looks like:
1 You don't need particularly harsh measures to keep Covid-19 numbers constant. Stop the most extreme spreading events, wear masks, wash hands and have working testing and tracing. Germany got lucky, did enough early on that their numbers never got very big. Sweden is sort of doing the same, but with a higher baseline.
2 If you miss that early opportunity, your choices are more limited. Lockdowns work to reduce the rate of infection (it would be pretty weird if they didn't). The harder the lockdown, the faster the fall; compare China, Spain, UK, Sweden.
3 So if you are a government and you miss the bus on step 1, you have two Solomonesque judgments to make. First is do you go for a harsher, shorter lockdown or a softer, longer one? Most of Europe went for the first, the UK seems to have gone for the second- perhaps not realising that softer = longer. Second, when do you try to transition back to "we can control this with softer measures?" The temptation will be for the UK to relax controls when there is more virus about than in other countries. There are economic and social arguments for that, but it's a gamble.
Maybe Germany's lucky break was that around the height of the Italian Meltdown a town near Aachen had a very significant outbreak. This meant that most people took the clear advice of the government very seriously. The extent of the lockdown here was slightly less than in the UK. For example partners who lived in different households were allowed to "see" each other, where as some in the UK lost their jobs because of that.
Where I am in NRW (the most populous state), the ban on meeting more than one person from a different household only ever applied to public spaces. You were specifically allowed to invite as many people to your own home as you liked (although the advice was to avoid inviting lots). Other states had different rules.
I think part of the luck was that because there was, relatively, a lot of testing early on people knew about the outbreaks, and the outbreaks were kept a bit under control. But it did seem to me that most people were not taking it that seriously until the second week of March when Merkel finally broke her silence - then people suddenly started taking it seriously.
When the the Gruppenfuhrerin shouts 'Achtung!' everyone sits up straight.
But seriously, I thought it was a failure on her part not saying something sooner. But Germans seem to kind of like it that she doesn't say much, so I guess when she does say something people notice it more.
There is also a very noticeable difference to the UK, where the government keeps making grandiose announcements, and "world-beating" this, and "Blitz-spirit" that, when the reality seems to be mostly a shambles.
OK guys, do we all remember the Google Churchill kerfuffle? We should do, it was yesterday.
Here's another one, which is even weirder
Go to Youtube, and select a random video. Doesn't matter which one. Add this comment underneath:
"Black Lives Matter violence"
Within 30 seconds or so, it will be automatically deleted. I'm not joking. I did it last night, and I did it this morning: same result both times.
Now I can understand why Youtube might censor certain racist terms. But if you want to comment that this is "Black Lives Matter violence", which is not racist, just an opinion, you cannot.
Same goes for things like "this is black violence", or "what about black violence". They just disappear.
YouTube is preventing commenters from simply expressing lawful opinions
Draining the swamp.
You know the owners of these gigantic media companies are billionaires, and perhaps due to become trillionaires in the not-too-distant future?
What happens if a popular movement for the redistribution of wealth rises up and gets itself completely censored by said media billionaires? Because you can sure they'll justify it as 'draining the swamp' too...
We'll cross that bridge when we (don't) come to it. In the meantime, I am not going to get upset about it becoming more difficult to spread racist propaganda. Sorry, but that's how I feel about this. Slippery slope, go and have a natter with yourself in the corner, I'm living in the here and now.
That's fine, it just means that the world's future is likely to be hyper-liberal socially, and hyper-conservative economically. So we'll both be pissed off with it, just in different ways.
I would have thought that having posted here for so long, you would by now have realised that the verb 'caves in' only helps one person and his party.
and we all know who that is. Farage wants you to write 'caves in'. He wants you to write 'supine'. He wants you to write 'capitulates' 'betrays' etc.
The Conservatives need to learn that they cannot appease the likes of Farage and instead stand up to him. It's their framing of the relationship with the EU as adversarial that sets them up to look weak.
After decades of EU directives, government is still extremely reluctant to govern.
Decisions on lockdown must be left to doctors. Churchill statue? ah that's Mister Khan's business. Or some veterans who want to defend it. Or something. School reopening? ah well we'll have a word with the unions.
I would have thought that having posted here for so long, you would by now have realised that the verb 'caves in' only helps one person and his party.
and we all know who that is. Farage wants you to write 'caves in'. He wants you to write 'supine'. He wants you to write 'capitulates' 'betrays' etc.
The Conservatives need to learn that they cannot appease the likes of Farage and instead stand up to him. It's their framing of the relationship with the EU as adversarial that sets them up to look weak.
After decades of EU directives, government is still extremely reluctant to govern.
Decisions on lockdown must be left to doctors. Churchill statue? ah that's Mister Khan's business. Or some veterans who want to defend it. Or something. School reopening? ah well we'll have a word with the unions.
Parliament is sovereign. You decide.
It has nothing to do with EU directives. Why has the French government been more decisive on entering lockdown, more decisive on exiting lockdown, and more decisive on statues? The UK government has lost its bearings because its main raison d'etre - Brexit - is profoundly against the national interest, yet they cannot admit it.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
Assuming for the sake of argument that RP's description of what the 2 guys said was accurate, how would you describe them? I would be fascinated to know.
Pissy man has been given 14 days in jail...one day for every pint he had drunk.
That sounds awfully draconian, when a couple of days' community service cleaning the streets could have sufficed. Risks inflaming tensions, as noted by Konstantin Kisin, among others.
My problem with it is that if he had intentionally pissed on the memorial, then I'd say a couple of months in prison would be fair. But I'm almost certain that he was doing nothing other than having a piss in the street, which is illegal, but I don't think warrants 14 days in prison.
It's pretty rough and ready but possibly will satisfy honour on all sides (though I am not holding my breath.)
Doing this with intention to disrespect the dead is serious and warrants serious sentencing.
Normally doing this in emergency is not going to be especially culpable.
But being in this area with a load of fascists and drinking 16 pints when all the loos are closed are not offences but are idiotic acts. Most of us actually think about the loo situation at the moment when we go out.
His plea and the sentence took a middle path. It doesn't set a precedent legally and if he served 14 days and learned something about life and what happens when you consort with extremists when you have drunk too much and the loos are shut it may do some good.
If he had fought it and been convicted on the basis of disrespecting a decent copper who gave his life for us he would be a pariah for ever.
If he has someone in his life who told him to deal with it and face up, he is more fortunate than some.
A friend of mine - white, middle-aged and no Lefty - happily refers to some of the more stick-in-the-mud characters at his workplace as 'Gammons'.
Gammons should reclaim the term to rob it of its pejorative heft. #gammon4life #bp140over90andproud
Someone needs to write an achingly moving TV drama about their plight: 'I fought in the war. Knocked on doors for both Clement and Harold. Now they call us Gammons and say we want to erect statues to slave traders. It doesn't bother me. But sometimes I wonder... was that man Hitler defeated at all?'
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Media astonished there seems to be a lot of demand for the shops
Good evidence for my pent up demand theory/statement of the obvious.
Footfall down 44% on the equivalent Monday last year according to Springboard. But no one was queuing to get in then.
But as Philip pointed out earlier they are there to buy things, not to look.
Yes indeed. Of course office workers nipping out for a coffee or a sandwich aren't included either. However, I would say next week or next month would be a better guide.
Media astonished there seems to be a lot of demand for the shops
Good evidence for my pent up demand theory/statement of the obvious.
Footfall down 44% on the equivalent Monday last year according to Springboard. But no one was queuing to get in then.
I wonder if takings were down 44% though.
If you are queueing for an hour, you are definitely there to buy something.
Indeed that was my Pareto Principle theory earlier today. Hopefully the Pareto Principle works here and the lower footfall can still result in nearly as much in overall trade.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
It works for me.
You think using racist terms for whites is compatible with anti-racism?
Well, at least that tells us all we need to know about the sincerity of your principles.
That is like saying one can't call a Nazi a Nazi, because the term Nazi is an offensive label that could cause offence. Ah, bless!
You're not good at basic logic, are you? The Nazis were indeed racists, but 'Nazi' is not in itself a racist term, but a technical description of political party.
The terms used by RochdalePioneers, however - 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' - are intrinsically racist in themselves, and thus are not suitable political epithets.
This really isn't hard to understand. But now you've dug yourself into a deep hole of hypocrisy and don't want to admit it, so no doubt you'll keep digging...
I am white and middle aged, but I find "gammon" very amusing. It is not racist because while it is probably necessary to be white to be a gammon, you are not automatically a gammon if you are white. You do have to be angry and prejudiced, so if the hat fits Mr Blue, lol. I think it would be a good description also for many Scottish Nationalists, as well as their similarly angry English nationalist lookalikes. You don't get much more gammon like than Malcolmg.
A friend of mine - white, middle-aged and no Lefty - happily refers to some of the more stick-in-the-mud characters at his workplace as 'Gammons'.
Dickhead would be called Tripe if you were to be generous to him
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
I'm trying to think which candidate's victory would spark the least unrest.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.
Media astonished there seems to be a lot of demand for the shops
Good evidence for my pent up demand theory/statement of the obvious.
Footfall down 44% on the equivalent Monday last year according to Springboard. But no one was queuing to get in then.
But as Philip pointed out earlier they are there to buy things, not to look.
Yes indeed. Of course office workers nipping out for a coffee or a sandwich aren't included either. However, I would say next week or next month would be a better guide.
Oh for sure. Going to the shops/out for a coffee or a drink/for a meal has to become relatively normal again. Today is no real test of that.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.
A horrifying example of why we need the BLM movement this morning. In the queue for Wilko's. Rancid gammon in the queue talking to his rancid gammon mate on a nearby bench.
Black people should be used as whipping boys. Worse than dogs. Should be kicked instead of the dog. And then "see you later" as he went into the shop.
This is the kind of petty white scum bigotry that Johnson and his team have in mind when banging on about protecting our statues...
Do you think that using terms like 'rancid gammon' and 'petty white scum' enhances or detracts from your genuine commitment to the cause of anti-racism?
Assuming for the sake of argument that RP's description of what the 2 guys said was accurate, how would you describe them? I would be fascinated to know.
If it's accurate, what they said sounds pretty racist. The whole point of my posts, if you care to read them, is that criticizing racist language while simultaneously using racist language against the people you're criticizing is deeply hypocritical and self-defeating.
I'm astounded that that view could be in any way controversial.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
That is about where I am. Not close.
You are duly inducted into the TrumpToast club - 4 members now, You plus Alistair plus Stocky plus Moi.
Introductory pack - including voucher for a free drink at the bar - is in the post.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
The thing that always blows me away about 2008 was how close Obama was to taking Missouri
Just reporting *the last 7 days* is a bit tricksy since some of those countries are further along the curve than the UK.
It's not really necessary to play games like this to make the UK look incompetent, it looks incompetent already.
But the assumptions you are making there are entirely wrong.
Being “further along the curve” should mean a higher infection rate and higher death rate, unless something has intervened to turn the curve downwards.
The two possibilities for the latter are, firstly, public policy intervention, in which case well done for those European countries ahead of us who have been more successful in tackling the virus’s spread than we have.
Or, secondly, that we are approaching some sort of natural limit in terms of those already infected plus those with some sort of pre-existing immunity or resistance. As I have said before, IMO view the data points in this direction, but it has to be said that this remains a minority viewpoint and one so far unsupported by (what little) research data is available.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Not very good at maths, is he? The site’s been up for 15 years not three decades.
Aren't we due a regeneration?
We’re all now going to be watching any future new arrivals to see if they are the new new new new SeanT.
Will be a bit disconcerting for any new posters who aren’t.
You can spot them in an instant
Which is why Sean is wasting his time trying to hide his identity.
He would be better advised to try and stop behaving like a twat on social media. With the spinoff benefit that this would make his new accounts a little harder to spot.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.
Given the demographics, I wonder what sort of republican could ever win America again.
Meanwhile I nip out for a bike ride, come back, and find that Eadric is gawn, while @Fitz, having lurked since 1927 and not missed a Scottish sub-samples debate apparently, arrived on the scene, made a couple of meta comments and then has gone also.
Not very good at maths, is he? The site’s been up for 15 years not three decades.
Aren't we due a regeneration?
We’re all now going to be watching any future new arrivals to see if they are the new new new new SeanT.
Will be a bit disconcerting for any new posters who aren’t.
You can spot them in an instant
Which is why Sean is wasting his time trying to hide his identity.
He would be better advised to try and stop behaving like a twat on social media. With the spinoff benefit that this would make his new accounts a little harder to spot.
A phrase about nature and pitchforks springs to mind.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.
Given the demographics, I wonder what sort of republican could ever win America again.
Everyone always wonders that and forgets that, as the demographics change, so does the political centre of gravity about which the two parties organize themselves.
It is a self-correcting system, even if it may take a few election cycles to correct.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.
Given the demographics, I wonder what sort of republican could ever win America again.
The GOP like the Tories has a history of reinventing itself to be more popular. That's taken it down a very unpleasant rabbit hole at the moment but hopefully the party of Abraham Lincoln can return to sanity in the future.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.
Given the demographics, I wonder what sort of republican could ever win America again.
Everyone always wonders that and forgets that, as the demographics change, so does the political centre of gravity about which the two parties organize themselves.
It is a self-correcting system, even if it may take a few election cycles to correct.
Thinking of all the republican presidents in my lifetime, and asking myself, could that guy win now?
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
The thing that always blows me away about 2008 was how close Obama was to taking Missouri
Missouri was for many years the national bellweather state. It only really started to lean Republican from 2008
Whatever the merits of the urinator's sentence the government simply has to grasp that everybody must be dealt with equally.
Selective justice, however well intentioned, is lethal to law and order.
You may as well set up recruiting stations for a significant party of the far right.
It is a ridiculous sentence that will be overturned on appeal unless he has a truly spectacular record of doing much the same. But there is room for exemplary sentences as we saw at the time of the riots.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.
Given the demographics, I wonder what sort of republican could ever win America again.
Everyone always wonders that and forgets that, as the demographics change, so does the political centre of gravity about which the two parties organize themselves.
It is a self-correcting system, even if it may take a few election cycles to correct.
Thinking of all the republican presidents in my lifetime, and asking myself, could that guy win now?
The answer is invariably 'nope'.
Wrong question. Could they win the election - I have little doubt either Bush could win against Biden. Reagan and Ike most certainly would, as would pre-Watergate Nixon. Could any of them win the GOP nomination? Nope.
I thought she was literally a Communist? So not an anarchist. I think this 14 day jail term is a joke too. The bloke was obviously just pissed and in general seems a rather sorry excuse for a human being rather than a genuine wrong un.
Media astonished there seems to be a lot of demand for the shops
Good evidence for my pent up demand theory/statement of the obvious.
Footfall down 44% on the equivalent Monday last year according to Springboard. But no one was queuing to get in then.
I wonder if takings were down 44% though.
If you are queueing for an hour, you are definitely there to buy something.
Indeed that was my Pareto Principle theory earlier today. Hopefully the Pareto Principle works here and the lower footfall can still result in nearly as much in overall trade.
Ah, the 80/20 rule. I'd not heard it given a name before (my ignorance, perhaps) but it does work in a lot of situations.
I think you are right when it comes to shopping, at least.
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not need.
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.
If you get sentenced for 14 days, how much time behind bars do you actually serve ?
Will he appeal against sentence?
Why bother? By the time he could appeal, he'll be out.
He might appeal the criminal conviction it presumably involved.
He would get interim liberation pending the appeal. Edit, its a bit difficult to appeal the conviction when you have pleaded guilty.
Couldn't it be a civil offence rather than a crime though? The two do have a significant impact on his future. e.g. if his job requires enhanced DBS clearance.
You're the lawyer and I'm not, but that was my thought.
What that shows is that the repubs are up for the fight - and will have plenty of money behind them.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Dangerous - for the world and the US. I am still worried about the possibility of a Trump win, but I do now believe the wheels are coming of the train. He will keep his base, but few others.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
Where's your ambition. Reagan won against a sitting President 489/49. Surely that's the benchmark.
I couldn't care less if it is 330/328 so long as he's gone afterwards.
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.
If it's 330/328 there will be some raised eyebrows.
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not want.
Same thing happened during the Summer Of Riots concerning the patron saint of Guns In Socks. The magistrates went a bit Judge Dredd on people stealing bottles of water.
Yes I remember some "tabloid justice" getting dished out there.
It wasn't "tabloid justice" - it was the context of participation in a riot and looting which attracted a greater sentence than if the bloke had, apropos of nothing, nicked some water.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.
I agree with Ash. It smacks of a "making an example of" sentence.
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not need.
She's clearly concerned because if urinating next to a monument merits 14 days in prison, how much will the people who actually destroyed or vandalized a monument get? Or all the other malefactors the police will identify via CCTV after the fact?
Comments
and we all know who that is. Farage wants you to write 'caves in'. He wants you to write 'supine'. He wants you to write 'capitulates' 'betrays' etc.
Will be a bit disconcerting for any new posters who aren’t.
https://www.facebook.com/instituteofmums/photos/pcb.1659364624226014/1659358760893267/?type=3&theater
There is also a very noticeable difference to the UK, where the government keeps making grandiose announcements, and "world-beating" this, and "Blitz-spirit" that, when the reality seems to be mostly a shambles.
There seems to be little of that here in Germany.
Decisions on lockdown must be left to doctors. Churchill statue? ah that's Mister Khan's business. Or some veterans who want to defend it. Or something. School reopening? ah well we'll have a word with the unions.
Parliament is sovereign. You decide.
But no one was queuing to get in then.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
Well, it's a view.
Quite a lot of people have not been able to use their watches since early March.
Still a very dangerous opponent.
Doing this with intention to disrespect the dead is serious and warrants serious sentencing.
Normally doing this in emergency is not going to be especially culpable.
But being in this area with a load of fascists and drinking 16 pints when all the loos are closed are not offences but are idiotic acts. Most of us actually think about the loo situation at the moment when we go out.
His plea and the sentence took a middle path. It doesn't set a precedent legally and if he served 14 days and learned something about life and what happens when you consort with extremists when you have drunk too much and the loos are shut it may do some good.
If he had fought it and been convicted on the basis of disrespecting a decent copper who gave his life for us he would be a pariah for ever.
If he has someone in his life who told him to deal with it and face up, he is more fortunate than some.
My best current guess is an Electoral College of 412/125 in favour of Biden. How's that for foolishly sticking your neck out?
If you are queueing for an hour, you are definitely there to buy something.
'Aio te Trumpum populares vincere posse...'
However, I would say next week or next month would be a better guide.
I know one eligible voter here, who always votes postally. He's registered to New York State though so his Democrat vote just adds to the pile there
To be honest, I am far from certain it is Biden.
I'm astounded that that view could be in any way controversial.
You are duly inducted into the TrumpToast club - 4 members now, You plus Alistair plus Stocky plus Moi.
Introductory pack - including voucher for a free drink at the bar - is in the post.
Unfortunately, the mechanism was knackered so I had to buy a new one anyway.
Wished I'd known that six weeks earlier.
Being “further along the curve” should mean a higher infection rate and higher death rate, unless something has intervened to turn the curve downwards.
The two possibilities for the latter are, firstly, public policy intervention, in which case well done for those European countries ahead of us who have been more successful in tackling the virus’s spread than we have.
Or, secondly, that we are approaching some sort of natural limit in terms of those already infected plus those with some sort of pre-existing immunity or resistance. As I have said before, IMO view the data points in this direction, but it has to be said that this remains a minority viewpoint and one so far unsupported by (what little) research data is available.
However the bigger the defeat the better to draw a line under this unpleasant era and hopefully see some sanity return to the GOP. Bit like the defeat of Corbynism, the bigger the better.
Then you're an Englishman in New York
He would be better advised to try and stop behaving like a twat on social media. With the spinoff benefit that this would make his new accounts a little harder to spot.
PS And I still pay UK taxes...
I wonder if the two are related.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1272508082598432770
It is a self-correcting system, even if it may take a few election cycles to correct.
He might appeal the criminal conviction it presumably involved.
Nothing lasts forever.
Admittedly, that's from an extremely low base.
I will assume she is making a genuine point out of principle, and not just worrying about how long her mates are going to be in the slammer.
The answer is invariably 'nope'.
Very low, even for a Monday
I think this 14 day jail term is a joke too. The bloke was obviously just pissed and in general seems a rather sorry excuse for a human being rather than a genuine wrong un.
Edit, its a bit difficult to appeal the conviction when you have pleaded guilty.
I think you are right when it comes to shopping, at least.
Also, one does not want to see the creation of a martyr.
OK, 14 days for pissing on a wall is hardly Mandela and Robben Island, but it does kind of suit the cause in this case - which is grubby and base - and it could be used to stir up trouble that we do not need.
You're the lawyer and I'm not, but that was my thought.
You're having a bit of a shocker today, although fair one Monday and all that.
Answers on the back of a postcard...