I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
While Gorsuch was appointed by Trump, he is not as conservative as Alito and Thomas (although still conservative). You can divide the court as follows:
Very liberal - Sotomayor, Ginsburg Somewhat liberal - Kagan, Breyer Somewhat conservative - Roberts, Gorsuch Very conservative - Kavaunagh, Thomas, Alito
Gorsuch is an originalist which I had taken to assume he would have read Title VII as not meaning sexual orientation.
Under the very literal argument made by TheWhiteRabbit an originalist definition would still apply here.
Once it was accepted that homosexuality was legal, the rest of these decisions being decided this way was inevitable and could/should have been done under the 14th Amendment. Sacking a man for legally doing what you wouldn't sack a woman for doing (or vice-versa) is clearly breaking the law.
Indeed, I completely agree with WhiteRabbit's argument and assumed that is how the case would be settled. And indeed it is exactly what Gorsuch says as well. I just didn't expect it!
I am waiting for the SCOTUS website to be less overloaded before I start my hate read of the dissent.
Interesting different expectations on the likelihood of Britain having an ethnic minority PM:
Barack Obama, a black American was elected President of the USA in 2008. How likely, if at all, do you think it is that a black, Asian or mixed-race politician will become Prime Minister of Britain within the next 10 to 20 years? Likely (Certain/Very/Fairly) / Unlikely (n.v. likely, v unlikely, certain) [net]
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Sometimes, you can almost hear Cummings talking.....
Of course Johnson sees no point in talking until Autumn, as Cummings has already decided we will no deal and that is the decision that Johnson will implement.
No!
Deal keeping things mostly the same with scope for "phased future divergence" and in the meantime "dynamic democratic alignment".
An extension that is not an extension.
Hailed as a triumph by Boris Johnson and Philip Thompson.
Bet you any money.
That's close to what I've predicted. Yes it would be a victory, depending upon who controls it. If Westminster controls our future that is a victory.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
The second amendment only talks about "arms", whereas the law in question here has a specific listing of protected characteristics.
Sex being one of them. LGBT falls under that, just as modern weapons fall under "arms".
That's what I find interesting. Is someone's sexual orientation their sex? Call me old fashioned, but I thought "sex" meant "gender"
Sex is the hardware, gender the software. Sexuality is who you are attracted to.
Though I believe sexuality can occasionally be the software. I'm told.
Interesting different expectations on the likelihood of Britain having an ethnic minority PM:
Barack Obama, a black American was elected President of the USA in 2008. How likely, if at all, do you think it is that a black, Asian or mixed-race politician will become Prime Minister of Britain within the next 10 to 20 years? Likely (Certain/Very/Fairly) / Unlikely (n.v. likely, v unlikely, certain) [net]
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
For the record I still believe Trump could win, a lot could happen between now and November.
What I find naive is that you believe Trump when he says a million people applied for tickets.
I don't doubt for a second that the core is pumped up but it's going to take more than the core to win.
You sound as though you want him to win, would I be right?
No I'm just submitting some evidence that Biden might not be the shoo-in that some on here think he is.
I don;t really care who wins, because I don't think it makes anywhere near as much difference as people think. Today's Supreme Court decision makes that clear. The US constitution is working just fine, thank you, Trump or no Trump.
But then business takes me to the US twice a year (before Corona). I've been under Obama and I've been under Trump. Almost no difference.
"Today, we must decide whether an employer can fire someone simply for being homosexual or transgender. The answer is clear. An employer who fires an individual for being homosexual or transgender fires that person for traits or actions it would not have questioned in members of a different sex. Sex plays a necessary and undisguisable role in the decision, exactly what Title VII forbids." -- Neil Gorsuch
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
For the record I still believe Trump could win, a lot could happen between now and November.
What I find naive is that you believe Trump when he says a million people applied for tickets.
I don't doubt for a second that the core is pumped up but it's going to take more than the core to win.
You sound as though you want him to win, would I be right?
No I'm just submitting some evidence that Biden might not be the shoo-in that some on here think he is.
I don;t really care who wins, because I don't think it makes anywhere near as much difference as people think. Today's Supreme Court decision makes that clear. The US constitution is working just fine, thank you, Trump or no Trump.
But then business takes me to the US twice a year (before Corona). I've been under Obama and I've been under Trump. Almost no difference.
On the contrary, Contrarian.
Really? do you go to the states often? do you meet Americans? what's your experience?
At least the US is publishing a figure for no of people tested.
The national US figure uses total tests, not number of people tested. Some states do publish people data though.
Test count rather than people count is the most common data internationally. I've been collating these for a while, and of the top 20 highest-testing countries, the data is:
USA: tests Russia: tests UK: both India: both Spain: tests Germany: tests Italy: both Turkey: tests UAE: ?? (stats pretty suspicious regardless) Canada: people Australia: tests Brazil: tests France: tests Peru: people Iran: tests Poland: tests (I think) Kazakhstan: tests Saudi: ?? South Africa: ?? S Korea: people
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Sometimes, you can almost hear Cummings talking.....
Of course Johnson sees no point in talking until Autumn, as Cummings has already decided we will no deal and that is the decision that Johnson will implement.
No!
Deal keeping things mostly the same with scope for "phased future divergence" and in the meantime "dynamic democratic alignment".
An extension that is not an extension.
Hailed as a triumph by Boris Johnson and Philip Thompson.
Bet you any money.
That's close to what I've predicted. Yes it would be a victory, depending upon who controls it. If Westminster controls our future that is a victory.
"Today, we must decide whether an employer can fire someone simply for being homosexual or transgender. The answer is clear. An employer who fires an individual for being homosexual or transgender fires that person for traits or actions it would not have questioned in members of a different sex. Sex plays a necessary and undisguisable role in the decision, exactly what Title VII forbids." -- Neil Gorsuch
That is some hot fire on the dissenting judges.
Impossible to argue with that. Its crystal clear.
I've seen some extracts from the dissent. I'm not going to read the full thing.
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Shall we have a bet as to how many previous red lines the UK will in the end cross in their capitulation.
No.
I can't see any way to define that which would be mutually interpreted the same. Besides compromise involves changes on both sides.
Keeping us dynamically aligned to EU laws without any say or divergence is the sole red line that matters to me.
What about The Court of PB?
For example. I believe it was a violation of a red line to establish a border in the Irish Sea. As does everyone on here.
I appreciate that for very valid reasons you don't have a problem with this but it was something that Boris said no British Prime Minister could ever do and therefore whatever one thinks of the policy itself, it is a red line crossed.
If we use the same logic to examine previous govt positions vs the agreed outcome we have a way forward.
My bet? £10 from you to a charity of my choice if more than two are violated. £10 from me to a charity of your choice if fewer than two are violated.
Deal?
This is the problem. You believe that's a violation, the overwhelming majority of PB believes it, but I do not.
Where are you on the whole earth flat/round thing?
Interesting different expectations on the likelihood of Britain having an ethnic minority PM:
Barack Obama, a black American was elected President of the USA in 2008. How likely, if at all, do you think it is that a black, Asian or mixed-race politician will become Prime Minister of Britain within the next 10 to 20 years? Likely (Certain/Very/Fairly) / Unlikely (n.v. likely, v unlikely, certain) [net]
I am unsure whether Scott realises his tweet demonstrates just how impressive the Government had been to create the Furlough/Self Employed/Loan Schemes in such a short timescale.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Is it lying when the person making the statement had no connection with the (or interest in) truth? As opposed to randomly saying wrong stuff.
A philosophical conundrum for the ages.
Nothing random about Trump's "wrong stuff" as every lie is to his benefit.
He can distinguish between truth and lies but he believes his core voters are too thick to do the same. He's not wrong.
Parents who aren't in a position to feed their children need help and support, but I'm not sure how this is the school's responsibility when it's not even open?
In the overall scheme of things this is a mistake. There are a lot of vulnerable children that we have had limited contact with for too long. The risk is come the holidays they will go off grid completely. This is a good way to stay in touch and give them an out if they need it and in the scheme of things the money is modest.
Priti Patel showing admirable consistency here. She is growing on me. No doubt where she stands. And no doubt that she believes what she says. No side about her.
I am unsure whether Scott realises his tweet demonstrates just how impressive the Government had been to create the Furlough/Self Employed/Loan Schemes in such a short timescale.
I didn't get the impression that that was the way he was reading it. But the Treasury seemed to have learned a thing or two about crisis management in 2008/9 and they don't seem to have forgotten it.
I am unsure whether Scott realises his tweet demonstrates just how impressive the Government had been to create the Furlough/Self Employed/Loan Schemes in such a short timescale.
You think that any govt at any time shouldn't wargame threat/disaster scenarios? And then act on the findings? You'd prefer for them to let it all be a huge surprise and take every day as it comes?
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Shall we have a bet as to how many previous red lines the UK will in the end cross in their capitulation.
No.
I can't see any way to define that which would be mutually interpreted the same. Besides compromise involves changes on both sides.
Keeping us dynamically aligned to EU laws without any say or divergence is the sole red line that matters to me.
What about The Court of PB?
For example. I believe it was a violation of a red line to establish a border in the Irish Sea. As does everyone on here.
I appreciate that for very valid reasons you don't have a problem with this but it was something that Boris said no British Prime Minister could ever do and therefore whatever one thinks of the policy itself, it is a red line crossed.
If we use the same logic to examine previous govt positions vs the agreed outcome we have a way forward.
My bet? £10 from you to a charity of my choice if more than two are violated. £10 from me to a charity of your choice if fewer than two are violated.
Deal?
This is the problem. You believe that's a violation, the overwhelming majority of PB believes it, but I do not.
Where are you on the whole earth flat/round thing?
In the overall scheme of things this is a mistake. There are a lot of vulnerable children that we have had limited contact with for too long. The risk is come the holidays they will go off grid completely. This is a good way to stay in touch and give them an out if they need it and in the scheme of things the money is modest.
It's very silly - you'd think a supposedly populist government could spot a popular policy. Whose call is this? The fireplace salesman's?
Parents who aren't in a position to feed their children need help and support, but I'm not sure how this is the school's responsibility when it's not even open?
Nothing to do with 'the school's responsibility'. It is that there is a mechanism in place which would likely be difficult (and a waste of time) to duplicate in the short space of time available.
No scientists, no slides. Daily briefings being slowly strangled.
Edit: slides now being shown to illustrate what Raab said five minutes ago. Somebody due for a bollocking for not having the 35mm carousel loaded by 5pm
In the overall scheme of things this is a mistake. There are a lot of vulnerable children that we have had limited contact with for too long. The risk is come the holidays they will go off grid completely. This is a good way to stay in touch and give them an out if they need it and in the scheme of things the money is modest.
It's very silly - you'd think a supposedly populist government could spot a popular policy. Whose call is this? The fireplace salesman's?
It has that clunkiness. He needs to go and be replaced by someone happy to tell the Unions that they either go back to normal classes or find another job.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
For the record I still believe Trump could win, a lot could happen between now and November.
What I find naive is that you believe Trump when he says a million people applied for tickets.
I don't doubt for a second that the core is pumped up but it's going to take more than the core to win.
You sound as though you want him to win, would I be right?
No I'm just submitting some evidence that Biden might not be the shoo-in that some on here think he is.
I don;t really care who wins, because I don't think it makes anywhere near as much difference as people think. Today's Supreme Court decision makes that clear. The US constitution is working just fine, thank you, Trump or no Trump.
But then business takes me to the US twice a year (before Corona). I've been under Obama and I've been under Trump. Almost no difference.
On the contrary, Contrarian.
Really? do you go to the states often? do you meet Americans? what's your experience?
Prior to George Floyd and coronavirus, I would have agreed that much of life on the surface was not much different. But that hides some truly momentous if insidious changes that 4 years of Trump has brought about.
His total comfort in lying and in denigrating the media has clearly led to many simply forgetting the value to a healthy democratic society of the Fourth Estate (although the media is not blameless in this - just watch CNN, Fox or MSNBC for as long as you can stand, and you'll get the point). That so many police forces across the country could even think about shooting at and arresting clearly identified members of the Press, let alone doing it and partially blinding one in the process, would have been unthinkable under any other President.
And while politicians have always been divisive (that's what elections are - dividing society into different camps), none prior to Trump has reveled in using national tragedies and crises to divide society further for political advantage, rather than seek to unite everyone to face the challenge. If the US were invaded, I am sure Trump would focus his energies on turning it into a wedge political issue rather than into defending the US.
At very deep and meaningful levels, Trump has undermined US society and its vital institutions.
I am unsure whether Scott realises his tweet demonstrates just how impressive the Government had been to create the Furlough/Self Employed/Loan Schemes in such a short timescale.
I didn't get the impression that that was the way he was reading it. But the Treasury seemed to have learned a thing or two about crisis management in 2008/9 and they don't seem to have forgotten it.
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Shall we have a bet as to how many previous red lines the UK will in the end cross in their capitulation.
No.
I can't see any way to define that which would be mutually interpreted the same. Besides compromise involves changes on both sides.
Keeping us dynamically aligned to EU laws without any say or divergence is the sole red line that matters to me.
What about The Court of PB?
For example. I believe it was a violation of a red line to establish a border in the Irish Sea. As does everyone on here.
I appreciate that for very valid reasons you don't have a problem with this but it was something that Boris said no British Prime Minister could ever do and therefore whatever one thinks of the policy itself, it is a red line crossed.
If we use the same logic to examine previous govt positions vs the agreed outcome we have a way forward.
My bet? £10 from you to a charity of my choice if more than two are violated. £10 from me to a charity of your choice if fewer than two are violated.
Deal?
This is the problem. You believe that's a violation, the overwhelming majority of PB believes it, but I do not.
Where are you on the whole earth flat/round thing?
It's more egg shaped.
Nope it is an oblate spheroid. However, as you are a believer in the fairytale aka Brexit you may wish to believe we are floating around on a giant Kinder Egg that has been placed in the universe by a giant cosmic Easter bunny
Not really. 16% has been fairly typical of SLab support in recent years.
But they ought to be worried. Why no Starmer effect? He has great approval ratings, even in Scotland.
How does SKS get on with the chap i/c SLAB, do you know, please? I've lost track of all the changes in SLAB leader (but presumably they no longer adhere to the doctrine enunciated by one who claimed that Scots were genetically [and so, one assumes, racially] incapable of making political decisions).
I am unsure whether Scott realises his tweet demonstrates just how impressive the Government had been to create the Furlough/Self Employed/Loan Schemes in such a short timescale.
I didn't get the impression that that was the way he was reading it. But the Treasury seemed to have learned a thing or two about crisis management in 2008/9 and they don't seem to have forgotten it.
Like the location of the printing press.
LOL. Indeed. And the need to move very fast and decisively when on the edge of a cliff.
Scott Rasmussen was removed from the company in 2013, and its in-house bias corrected considerably after that.
Well, you hear that every so often, and to be fair they do oscillate a bit, some cycles they seem in-tune with others.
I'd point to the 2018 elections though, end result Dems +8.4. All the other pollsters had Dems in a range of +5 to +13, for an average of +8.2. Meanwhile, Rassie had GOP+1 :-)
Scott Rasmussen was removed from the company in 2013, and its in-house bias corrected considerably after that.
Well, you hear that every so often, and to be fair they do oscillate a bit, some cycles they seem in-tune with others.
I'd point to the 2018 elections though, everybody else had Dems a range of +5 to +13, with the result falling in the middle at +8.4. Rassie's final poll though: GOP+1.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
For the record I still believe Trump could win, a lot could happen between now and November.
What I find naive is that you believe Trump when he says a million people applied for tickets.
I don't doubt for a second that the core is pumped up but it's going to take more than the core to win.
You sound as though you want him to win, would I be right?
No I'm just submitting some evidence that Biden might not be the shoo-in that some on here think he is.
I don;t really care who wins, because I don't think it makes anywhere near as much difference as people think. Today's Supreme Court decision makes that clear. The US constitution is working just fine, thank you, Trump or no Trump.
But then business takes me to the US twice a year (before Corona). I've been under Obama and I've been under Trump. Almost no difference.
On the contrary, Contrarian.
Really? do you go to the states often? do you meet Americans? what's your experience?
Prior to George Floyd and coronavirus, I would have agreed that much of life on the surface was not much different. But that hides some truly momentous if insidious changes that 4 years of Trump has brought about.
His total comfort in lying and in denigrating the media has clearly led to many simply forgetting the value to a healthy democratic society of the Fourth Estate (although the media is not blameless in this - just watch CNN, Fox or MSNBC for as long as you can stand, and you'll get the point). That so many police forces across the country could even think about shooting at and arresting clearly identified members of the Press, let alone doing it and partially blinding one in the process, would have been unthinkable under any other President.
And while politicians have always been divisive (that's what elections are - dividing society into different camps), none prior to Trump has reveled in using national tragedies and crises to divide society further for political advantage, rather than seek to unite everyone to face the challenge. If the US were invaded, I am sure Trump would focus his energies on turning it into a wedge political issue rather than into defending the US.
At very deep and meaningful levels, Trump has undermined US society and its vital institutions.
I think @contrarian means you can still get a cup of coffee.
Not really. 16% has been fairly typical of SLab support in recent years.
But they ought to be worried. Why no Starmer effect? He has great approval ratings, even in Scotland.
Westminster polls in Scotland are irrelevant to his chances of becoming PM anyway as the SNP will always vote to make Starmer PM over Boris or any other Tory.
However beyond that he just needs to wait for the SNP civil war when either the Nationalists win another majority at Holyrood and Sturgeon refused to hold indyref2 without Westminster consent when Boris vetoes it, or there is a Unionist majority and in which case SLab will be up anyway
A spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “The PM understands the issues facing families across the UK, which is why last week the government announced an additional £63 million for local authorities to benefit families who are struggling to afford food and other basic essentials.
“The PM will respond to Marcus Rashford’s letter as soon as he can – [Rashford] has been using his profile in a positive way to highlight some very important issues.”
A spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “The PM understands the issues facing families across the UK, which is why last week the government announced an additional £63 million for local authorities to benefit families who are struggling to afford food and other basic essentials.
“The PM will respond to Marcus Rashford’s letter as soon as he can – [Rashford] has been using his profile in a positive way to highlight some very important issues.”
I believe somebody once came up with a term for this kind of incorrect reporting...just can't remember what it is.
Of course the initial tweet will get 1000s of retweets and the correction will get 27.
You can fool some of the people some of the time...… People are begining to catch up with the very obvious fact that it is a dumb and pointless idea. Sadly we are stuck with it. There must be some upsides, I mean we have an outstanding, honest, competent PM for one thing.....Oh, OK! World class!
I am unsure whether Scott realises his tweet demonstrates just how impressive the Government had been to create the Furlough/Self Employed/Loan Schemes in such a short timescale.
I didn't get the impression that that was the way he was reading it. But the Treasury seemed to have learned a thing or two about crisis management in 2008/9 and they don't seem to have forgotten it.
Like the location of the printing press.
LOL. Indeed. And the need to move very fast and decisively when on the edge of a cliff.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
For the record I still believe Trump could win, a lot could happen between now and November.
What I find naive is that you believe Trump when he says a million people applied for tickets.
I don't doubt for a second that the core is pumped up but it's going to take more than the core to win.
You sound as though you want him to win, would I be right?
No I'm just submitting some evidence that Biden might not be the shoo-in that some on here think he is.
I don;t really care who wins, because I don't think it makes anywhere near as much difference as people think. Today's Supreme Court decision makes that clear. The US constitution is working just fine, thank you, Trump or no Trump.
But then business takes me to the US twice a year (before Corona). I've been under Obama and I've been under Trump. Almost no difference.
On the contrary, Contrarian.
Really? do you go to the states often? do you meet Americans? what's your experience?
Prior to George Floyd and coronavirus, I would have agreed that much of life on the surface was not much different. But that hides some truly momentous if insidious changes that 4 years of Trump has brought about.
His total comfort in lying and in denigrating the media has clearly led to many simply forgetting the value to a healthy democratic society of the Fourth Estate (although the media is not blameless in this - just watch CNN, Fox or MSNBC for as long as you can stand, and you'll get the point). That so many police forces across the country could even think about shooting at and arresting clearly identified members of the Press, let alone doing it and partially blinding one in the process, would have been unthinkable under any other President.
And while politicians have always been divisive (that's what elections are - dividing society into different camps), none prior to Trump has reveled in using national tragedies and crises to divide society further for political advantage, rather than seek to unite everyone to face the challenge. If the US were invaded, I am sure Trump would focus his energies on turning it into a wedge political issue rather than into defending the US.
At very deep and meaningful levels, Trump has undermined US society and its vital institutions.
I think @contrarian means you can still get a cup of coffee.
So 1% fewer people think Brexit was wrong now than voted Remain in 2016, 5 months after Brexit happened
Based on your maths, 12% fewer people think Brexit was right compared to those who voted for it. The Tory party is shackled to a corpse of a political project.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
For the record I still believe Trump could win, a lot could happen between now and November.
What I find naive is that you believe Trump when he says a million people applied for tickets.
I don't doubt for a second that the core is pumped up but it's going to take more than the core to win.
You sound as though you want him to win, would I be right?
No I'm just submitting some evidence that Biden might not be the shoo-in that some on here think he is.
I don;t really care who wins, because I don't think it makes anywhere near as much difference as people think. Today's Supreme Court decision makes that clear. The US constitution is working just fine, thank you, Trump or no Trump.
But then business takes me to the US twice a year (before Corona). I've been under Obama and I've been under Trump. Almost no difference.
On the contrary, Contrarian.
Really? do you go to the states often? do you meet Americans? what's your experience?
Prior to George Floyd and coronavirus, I would have agreed that much of life on the surface was not much different. But that hides some truly momentous if insidious changes that 4 years of Trump has brought about.
His total comfort in lying and in denigrating the media has clearly led to many simply forgetting the value to a healthy democratic society of the Fourth Estate (although the media is not blameless in this - just watch CNN, Fox or MSNBC for as long as you can stand, and you'll get the point). That so many police forces across the country could even think about shooting at and arresting clearly identified members of the Press, let alone doing it and partially blinding one in the process, would have been unthinkable under any other President.
And while politicians have always been divisive (that's what elections are - dividing society into different camps), none prior to Trump has reveled in using national tragedies and crises to divide society further for political advantage, rather than seek to unite everyone to face the challenge. If the US were invaded, I am sure Trump would focus his energies on turning it into a wedge political issue rather than into defending the US.
At very deep and meaningful levels, Trump has undermined US society and its vital institutions.
I thought Anne Applebaum's article on this was brilliant.
‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.
"Today, we must decide whether an employer can fire someone simply for being homosexual or transgender. The answer is clear. An employer who fires an individual for being homosexual or transgender fires that person for traits or actions it would not have questioned in members of a different sex. Sex plays a necessary and undisguisable role in the decision, exactly what Title VII forbids." -- Neil Gorsuch
That is some hot fire on the dissenting judges.
Impossible to argue with that. Its crystal clear.
Not necessarily. Someone might fire a man for being gay but not a woman for being a lesbian.
I thought this was supposed to be a covid briefing. Sadly it has turned into a party political broadcast. I will not watch any future ones, especially with no scientists present.
Germany's annual contribution to the EU budget would increase by 42% based on the current proposal from the European Commission, German newspaper Die Welt reported Monday, citing government calculations.
Interesting different expectations on the likelihood of Britain having an ethnic minority PM:
Barack Obama, a black American was elected President of the USA in 2008. How likely, if at all, do you think it is that a black, Asian or mixed-race politician will become Prime Minister of Britain within the next 10 to 20 years? Likely (Certain/Very/Fairly) / Unlikely (n.v. likely, v unlikely, certain) [net]
So 1% fewer people think Brexit was wrong now than voted Remain in 2016, 5 months after Brexit happened
Based on your maths, 12% fewer people think Brexit was right compared to those who voted for it. The Tory party is shackled to a corpse of a political project.
The whole outrage over 2m thing is a bit silly. WHO have always said 1m, other countries it is somewhere between 1 and 2m. The science suggests it depends on transmission route, even 2m isn't enough if it is transmitted by small droplets.
I think it is fairly obvious we went for 2m as if people cheat a bit, still likely to spend vast majority of time at greater than 1m. Now, it is clear that lots of businesses just can't operate if we insist on 2m at all times.
In other news, I notice US Prof Witty has basically admitted the face mask advice was to.ensure supplies for medical frontline staff. I suspect the same is true here.
So 1% fewer people think Brexit was wrong now than voted Remain in 2016, 5 months after Brexit happened
Based on your maths, 12% fewer people think Brexit was right compared to those who voted for it. The Tory party is shackled to a corpse of a political project.
So 1% fewer people think Brexit was wrong now than voted Remain in 2016, 5 months after Brexit happened
Based on your maths, 12% fewer people think Brexit was right compared to those who voted for it. The Tory party is shackled to a corpse of a political project.
Some corpse. We have left
We haven’t defused the grenade, just pulled out the pin.
Germany's annual contribution to the EU budget would increase by 42% based on the current proposal from the European Commission, German newspaper Die Welt reported Monday, citing government calculations.
So 1% fewer people think Brexit was wrong now than voted Remain in 2016, 5 months after Brexit happened
Based on your maths, 12% fewer people think Brexit was right compared to those who voted for it. The Tory party is shackled to a corpse of a political project.
Some corpse. We have left
We haven’t defused the grenade, just pulled out the pin.
I might be wrong, but it appears to me that the folk seeing blokes getting their throats cut right in front of the cops and our brave lads being hunted down by feral packs of Mau Mau are almost exactly the same types who see the hand of Islamic terrorism in every road accident or poor loon going off on one. Must be hell to be on that hair trigger of hysteria the whole time.
In the overall scheme of things this is a mistake. There are a lot of vulnerable children that we have had limited contact with for too long. The risk is come the holidays they will go off grid completely. This is a good way to stay in touch and give them an out if they need it and in the scheme of things the money is modest.
The school would have to be open for several hours to make it worthwhile. Especially if the children can't all be delivered at once due to social distancing.
Who is going to do the supervising?
Edit: Is this about "food parcels" being stopped rather than actual school meals? In which case, they don't provide much contact...
So 1% fewer people think Brexit was wrong now than voted Remain in 2016, 5 months after Brexit happened
Based on your maths, 12% fewer people think Brexit was right compared to those who voted for it. The Tory party is shackled to a corpse of a political project.
Some corpse. We have left
We haven’t defused the grenade, just pulled out the pin.
Time to move on
Isnt that what the Captain of teh Titanic said?Those that still believe in the fantasy tell us we should. Many of us have, but it won't stop us reminding the fuckwits who advocated it what a pointless disaster it was when it all goes very pear shaped
Interesting different expectations on the likelihood of Britain having an ethnic minority PM:
Barack Obama, a black American was elected President of the USA in 2008. How likely, if at all, do you think it is that a black, Asian or mixed-race politician will become Prime Minister of Britain within the next 10 to 20 years? Likely (Certain/Very/Fairly) / Unlikely (n.v. likely, v unlikely, certain) [net]
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
While Gorsuch was appointed by Trump, he is not as conservative as Alito and Thomas (although still conservative). You can divide the court as follows:
Very liberal - Sotomayor, Ginsburg Somewhat liberal - Kagan, Breyer Somewhat conservative - Roberts, Gorsuch Very conservative - Kavaunagh, Thomas, Alito
Gorsuch is an originalist which I had taken to assume he would have read Title VII as not meaning sexual orientation.
Under the very literal argument made by TheWhiteRabbit an originalist definition would still apply here.
Once it was accepted that homosexuality was legal, the rest of these decisions being decided this way was inevitable and could/should have been done under the 14th Amendment. Sacking a man for legally doing what you wouldn't sack a woman for doing (or vice-versa) is clearly breaking the law.
Indeed, I completely agree with WhiteRabbit's argument and assumed that is how the case would be settled. And indeed it is exactly what Gorsuch says as well. I just didn't expect it!
I am waiting for the SCOTUS website to be less overloaded before I start my hate read of the dissent.
I would like to point out that I lifted the argument from the judgment and put it in slightly fewer words.
I appreciate that in these days of Twitter that might count as 'original thought' but I am not ready to accept that yet...
With regards to the new 6 week deadline on a Brexit deal, the UK has already folded. Who knew that you couldn't create a physical international border and all the systems to apply tariffs and checks to literally everything crossing the border in jist a few months? Ok HMRC knew. Ok the ports knew. Ok the hauliers knew. But as we've had enough of experts it would have been unfair to expect ministers to know.
So, upon the termination of transition we will have a border wide open with no checks at all like now. The EU will permit such an arrangement on the basis that whilst the UK has the Right to have independent trade deals, no such deals will exist for years because unlike twatty ministerial prouncements in reality they take years.
So we exit transition both fully out of the EU and fully disconnected. However as we won't even have independently discovered man's red fire by that point we will be unable to go anywhere. As I keep saying, a proud independent UK disconnected from the EU gravy train. But not actually under power, still buffered up to the EU being pushed in the same direction at the same speed. We will open talks with Merica and others and as the deals they offer will inevitably be inferior to the ones we enjoy being pushed along by the EU our need to do deals will recede into the distance.
Eventually someone will lift the coupling back over the hook. We will carry on technically independent but practically connected in every way. A triumph of English exceptionalism
Oh dear. Presumably he'd only be happy if the briefings carried on indefinitely. The high streets are open, the scientists are still working but I'm afraid Alastair Campbell its time to get things moving rather than stay locked up inside.
In the overall scheme of things this is a mistake. There are a lot of vulnerable children that we have had limited contact with for too long. The risk is come the holidays they will go off grid completely. This is a good way to stay in touch and give them an out if they need it and in the scheme of things the money is modest.
The school would have to be open for several hours to make it worthwhile. Especially if the children can't all be delivered at once due to social distancing.
Who is going to do the supervising?
Edit: Is this about "food parcels" being stopped rather than actual school meals? In which case, they don't provide much contact...
The same people who have been available to cover key workers' kids and vulnerable kids during the previous holiday.
Comments
I am waiting for the SCOTUS website to be less overloaded before I start my hate read of the dissent.
Barack Obama, a black American was elected President of the USA in 2008.
How likely, if at all, do you think it is that a black, Asian or mixed-race politician will become Prime Minister of Britain within the next 10 to 20 years?
Likely (Certain/Very/Fairly) / Unlikely (n.v. likely, v unlikely, certain) [net]
Con: 86 / 12 [+74]
Lab: 69 / 31 [+38]
LibD: 79 / 21 [+58]
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-06/race-inequality-june-2020-tables.pdf
Who could they have in mind?
Though I believe sexuality can occasionally be the software. I'm told.
Test count rather than people count is the most common data internationally. I've been collating these for a while, and of the top 20 highest-testing countries, the data is:
USA: tests
Russia: tests
UK: both
India: both
Spain: tests
Germany: tests
Italy: both
Turkey: tests
UAE: ?? (stats pretty suspicious regardless)
Canada: people
Australia: tests
Brazil: tests
France: tests
Peru: people
Iran: tests
Poland: tests (I think)
Kazakhstan: tests
Saudi: ??
South Africa: ??
S Korea: people
https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1272473211947626497?s=20
SNP 49%
SCon 22%
SLab 16%
Grn 7%
SLD 7%
BP1%
Fantastic figure for the Greens.
https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1272554693500252162?s=20
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1272557011239141377?s=20
https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1272556398963015683?s=20
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1272558012905988096?s=20
He can distinguish between truth and lies but he believes his core voters are too thick to do the same. He's not wrong.
She is growing on me.
No doubt where she stands. And no doubt that she believes what she says. No side about her.
Edit: slides now being shown to illustrate what Raab said five minutes ago. Somebody due for a bollocking for not having the 35mm carousel loaded by 5pm
His total comfort in lying and in denigrating the media has clearly led to many simply forgetting the value to a healthy democratic society of the Fourth Estate (although the media is not blameless in this - just watch CNN, Fox or MSNBC for as long as you can stand, and you'll get the point). That so many police forces across the country could even think about shooting at and arresting clearly identified members of the Press, let alone doing it and partially blinding one in the process, would have been unthinkable under any other President.
And while politicians have always been divisive (that's what elections are - dividing society into different camps), none prior to Trump has reveled in using national tragedies and crises to divide society further for political advantage, rather than seek to unite everyone to face the challenge. If the US were invaded, I am sure Trump would focus his energies on turning it into a wedge political issue rather than into defending the US.
At very deep and meaningful levels, Trump has undermined US society and its vital institutions.
History: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history
Edit: I speak somewhat ironically.
But they ought to be worried. Why no Starmer effect? He has great approval ratings, even in Scotland.
I'd point to the 2018 elections though, end result Dems +8.4. All the other pollsters had Dems in a range of +5 to +13, for an average of +8.2. Meanwhile, Rassie had GOP+1 :-)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
However beyond that he just needs to wait for the SNP civil war when either the Nationalists win another majority at Holyrood and Sturgeon refused to hold indyref2 without Westminster consent when Boris vetoes it, or there is a Unionist majority and in which case SLab will be up anyway
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1272563182712819712?s=21
https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1272562982296276993?s=20
A spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “The PM understands the issues facing families across the UK, which is why last week the government announced an additional £63 million for local authorities to benefit families who are struggling to afford food and other basic essentials.
“The PM will respond to Marcus Rashford’s letter as soon as he can – [Rashford] has been using his profile in a positive way to highlight some very important issues.”
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/public-compliance-covid19-june/
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1272564094885904387?s=20
Of course the initial tweet will get 1000s of retweets and the correction will get 27.
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-eu-coronavirus-budget-increase/a-53806800
I think it is fairly obvious we went for 2m as if people cheat a bit, still likely to spend vast majority of time at greater than 1m. Now, it is clear that lots of businesses just can't operate if we insist on 2m at all times.
In other news, I notice US Prof Witty has basically admitted the face mask advice was to.ensure supplies for medical frontline staff. I suspect the same is true here.
Who is going to do the supervising?
Edit: Is this about "food parcels" being stopped rather than actual school meals? In which case, they don't provide much contact...
But 12% fewer people think Brexit was right than voted Leave in 2016
England regional cases by specimen date -
I appreciate that in these days of Twitter that might count as 'original thought' but I am not ready to accept that yet...
So, upon the termination of transition we will have a border wide open with no checks at all like now. The EU will permit such an arrangement on the basis that whilst the UK has the Right to have independent trade deals, no such deals will exist for years because unlike twatty ministerial prouncements in reality they take years.
So we exit transition both fully out of the EU and fully disconnected. However as we won't even have independently discovered man's red fire by that point we will be unable to go anywhere. As I keep saying, a proud independent UK disconnected from the EU gravy train. But not actually under power, still buffered up to the EU being pushed in the same direction at the same speed. We will open talks with Merica and others and as the deals they offer will inevitably be inferior to the ones we enjoy being pushed along by the EU our need to do deals will recede into the distance.
Eventually someone will lift the coupling back over the hook. We will carry on technically independent but practically connected in every way. A triumph of English exceptionalism