Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Just one small observation. Isn't it interesting that the man who will - probably - smash Trump is a very conservative, traditional Democrat who has refused to countenance the crazier schemes of his party's radical base, the class war, the identity politics etc? Former Trump voters feel safe lending their vote to Biden because they know that they can get rid of the loony on their own side without letting in the extremists on the other.
If it were Sanders on the Democratic ticket, a lot of Trumpers would stick to their man like glue and it would be a much more harrowing fight. But nah, this whole 'moderate Left' thing will never catch on...
Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
Very leading questions from an anti-Brexit campaign group gets the answers it wants. What a shocker!
Only a fuckwit would want a no-deal Brexit. You would have to be extremely stupid even by Brexiter standards...…. Oh, awfully sorry Philip old bean!
I don't want a no-deal Brexit. I want a good deal Brexit, but no deal is better than a bad deal.
The poll though was by anti-Brexit campaign group Best for Britain and the polling question was ludicrously leading.
After a set of Yes, Prime Minister style set of leading questions were asked this was the question eventually asked:
‘The Conservative campaign manifesto said that the Government would pursue "a new free trade agreement with the EU [and that] this will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation”. How important is it that the Government keeps this promise?’
What a leading question! Hint: I'd answer its important that the Government keeps its promise. That doesn't mean what Nick Cohen is trying to spin it as.
Love the use of the hackneyed slogan, you are a marketing person's dream. It is a silly slogan and wrong. Any "deal" we get out of the stupidity known as Brexit is demonstrably worse than the one we had already. Any deal will therefore be a bad deal, but pretty much any deal is better than no-deal
Hahahahahahaha
I do love the fact you actually believe this rubbish.
Bit rich coming from someone that believes in the fairytale called Brexit. I readily accept that there are a few people like you Richard that are not stupid but still believe in it, but you are very much in the minority. If you really think Brexit will make Britain a better place I would really like what you are smoking. I don't even think you believe it any more. It is a pointless exercise; a vanity project for the worst PM we have had in my memory to use as a vehicle for his political ambition. And if I didn't believe it was going to seriously fuck the country up , I would be laughing at you for being so fucking gullible you believed in it. hahahahahahahahahahahaha. No actually it won't be a joke for those folk that lose their jobs and the businesses that go bust. No doubt Bozo the Clown will say it is all the fault of his invisibility cloak called the Coronavirus, but the rest of us will know that it was actually the fault of a minority of people who were intelligent enough to know otherwise but still advocated it and voted for it . We have all got to come to terms with it now, but when the shit hits the fan I will know I did not support it, so I sorta feel sorry for you.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
I was going to wade into the discussion about lawyers. My contribution contained a nice little pithily worded phrase, but quite frankly no-one would go about their day happier or better informed as a result. So instead, let me relate the tears of happiness I have just shed in picking my youngest daughter up from her first day back at school. She has spent a whole day surrounded by people her own age, and I think she is happier than she's been in months, and therefore I am too.
Great news. I wish all children could be so fortunate.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Just one small observation. Isn't it interesting that the man who will - probably - smash Trump is a very conservative, traditional Democrat who has refused to countenance the crazier schemes of his party's radical base, the class war, the identity politics etc? Former Trump voters feel safe lending their vote to Biden because they know that they can get rid of the loony on their own side without letting in the extremists on the other.
If it were Sanders on the Democratic ticket, a lot of Trumpers would stick to their man like glue and it would be a much more harrowing fight. But nah, this whole 'moderate Left' thing will never catch on...
Biden is running on a platform massively to the left of Obama - he's taken chunks of Warren and Bernie's platform into his own. You are projecting biggley as to what Biden is proposing.
Globally chlorinated chicken, I suspect. Johnson's mostly talking to his Brexiteer base these days, not all of whom are happy about the concessions the UK will need to make to get a US trade deal.
Very leading questions from an anti-Brexit campaign group gets the answers it wants. What a shocker!
Only a fuckwit would want a no-deal Brexit. You would have to be extremely stupid even by Brexiter standards...…. Oh, awfully sorry Philip old bean!
I don't want a no-deal Brexit. I want a good deal Brexit, but no deal is better than a bad deal.
The poll though was by anti-Brexit campaign group Best for Britain and the polling question was ludicrously leading.
After a set of Yes, Prime Minister style set of leading questions were asked this was the question eventually asked:
‘The Conservative campaign manifesto said that the Government would pursue "a new free trade agreement with the EU [and that] this will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation”. How important is it that the Government keeps this promise?’
What a leading question! Hint: I'd answer its important that the Government keeps its promise. That doesn't mean what Nick Cohen is trying to spin it as.
Love the use of the hackneyed slogan, you are a marketing person's dream. It is a silly slogan and wrong. Any "deal" we get out of the stupidity known as Brexit is demonstrably worse than the one we had already. Any deal will therefore be a bad deal, but pretty much any deal is better than no-deal
Hahahahahahaha
I do love the fact you actually believe this rubbish.
Bit rich coming from someone that believes in the fairytale called Brexit. I readily accept that there are a few people like you Richard that are not stupid but still believe in it, but you are very much in the minority. If you really think Brexit will make Britain a better place I would really like what you are smoking. I don't even think you believe it any more. It is a pointless exercise; a vanity project for the worst PM we have had in my memory to use as a vehicle for his political ambition. And if I didn't believe it was going to seriously fuck the country up , I would be laughing at you for being so fucking gullible you believed in it. hahahahahahahahahahahaha. No actually it won't be a joke for those folk that lose their jobs and the businesses that go bust. No doubt Bozo the Clown will say it is all the fault of his invisibility cloak called the Coronavirus, but the rest of us will know that it was actually the fault of a minority of people who were intelligent enough to know otherwise but still advocated it and voted for it . We have all got to come to terms with it now, but when the shit hits the fan I will know I did not support it, so I sorta feel sorry for you.
I am just glad that unlike you I have some principles which don't all revolve around money. I genuinely believe you would prefer a dictatorship so long as it kept the economy running to your own benefit. It is the problem with always seeing the world in terms of a balance sheet.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Just one small observation. Isn't it interesting that the man who will - probably - smash Trump is a very conservative, traditional Democrat who has refused to countenance the crazier schemes of his party's radical base, the class war, the identity politics etc? Former Trump voters feel safe lending their vote to Biden because they know that they can get rid of the loony on their own side without letting in the extremists on the other.
If it were Sanders on the Democratic ticket, a lot of Trumpers would stick to their man like glue and it would be a much more harrowing fight. But nah, this whole 'moderate Left' thing will never catch on...
I think Sanders would have had a decent chance of squeaking it (v Trump) but, yes, I agree with the essence of your point. Biden is the one for the essential task of slaying the monster this year without taking unnecessary risks. But I hope and expect much of the Bernie program to be implemented over the next few years. Just need to move beyond this "culture war" nonsense. And I do sense we soon will. It's becoming stale and sterile and oh so predictable.
I was going to wade into the discussion about lawyers. My contribution contained a nice little pithily worded phrase, but quite frankly no-one would go about their day happier or better informed as a result. So instead, let me relate the tears of happiness I have just shed in picking my youngest daughter up from her first day back at school. She has spent a whole day surrounded by people her own age, and I think she is happier than she's been in months, and therefore I am too.
Great news. I wish all children could be so fortunate.
Swedish children were spared that torment. For which I personally am immensely grateful. There is no reason to have turned their worlds upside down.
But it is actually older teenagers and young adults I am most worried about. Lockdown has been horrific for many of them. When we look back on this in ten years time, I think it will be universally acknowledged that thumping children and young adults - psychologically, socially and economically - was an act of collective idiocy.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Just one small observation. Isn't it interesting that the man who will - probably - smash Trump is a very conservative, traditional Democrat who has refused to countenance the crazier schemes of his party's radical base, the class war, the identity politics etc? Former Trump voters feel safe lending their vote to Biden because they know that they can get rid of the loony on their own side without letting in the extremists on the other.
If it were Sanders on the Democratic ticket, a lot of Trumpers would stick to their man like glue and it would be a much more harrowing fight. But nah, this whole 'moderate Left' thing will never catch on...
Biden is running on a platform massively to the left of Obama - he's taken chunks of Warren and Bernie's platform into his own. You are projecting biggley as to what Biden is proposing.
Biden has said that he would veto a 'Medicare for All' bill if it ever reached his desk, even if it were passed by both Houses of Congress! The US progressives despise him as a corrupt corporatist warmonger who's made a career of working with Republicans, making un-PC gaffes, passing tough law-and-order legislation, and blocking real change every step of the way.
That's why he's likely to win the country, and win convincingly.
Well good - I want the consensus to remain that it's going to be close so I can sell that Trump EC opening spread at about 245.
Want to double that bet to £10, Kinablu ?
In seriousness, here's a question: apart from the published polls which come out, what gives you confidence that Biden is winning by a storm at the moment? Because it is not shown by actual results - the Democrats lost a House seat (@RCS says we shouldn't read too much into CA-25 but the very best interpretation is that it doesn't suggest an electorate fired up to give Trump a bloody nose where possible); it wasn't shown in PA when more Republicans turned out for their primary than Democrats did besides the latter having an advantage in registered voters; there has been plenty of anecdotes about Trump posters in backyards still been commonplace but no one seems to be talking of the rapid spread of Biden euphoria. Where is the evidence on the ground to back up the polls?
That is why the Republicans in that article seem confident.
People aren't voting about Trump or Biden in these smaller elections. In the big one that's the main point... It's not exactly the same but backing many gains for the Lib Dems off the back of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election would have been a similiar category error in terms of UK political betting at the 2019 GE. Polls are a better indicator.
I hear your point but a few things on Brecon (1) the by-election poll two weeks before had the LibDems 15% ahead, they won by 4.5%so a bit and (2) what it did show pretty accurately was a fall off in Labour support in the upcoming election.
But it comes back to the same issue. We keep hearing about how everyone is turning against Trump and he is increasingly despised but, funnily enough, when people get the chance to show their anger, they don't bother to turn up.
The arguments for Biden at the moment seem to rest on the polls and a vague sense that there are shy Biden voters who are keeping their enthusiasm for him under wraps and can't be arsed to vote for him when they get a chance but will come out in November. That might be true but it doesn't back up the view Trump is a certain goner.
Not very good at maths, is he? The site’s been up for 15 years not three decades.
Aren't we due a regeneration?
We’re all now going to be watching any future new arrivals to see if they are the new new new new SeanT.
Will be a bit disconcerting for any new posters who aren’t.
You can spot them in an instant
Which is why Sean is wasting his time trying to hide his identity.
He would be better advised to try and stop behaving like a twat on social media. With the spinoff benefit that this would make his new accounts a little harder to spot.
He does not try very hard to hide them for sure, just changes name at the top
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.
"very right wing"?
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
There are some Democrats who could easily be Kippers with their support for economic protectionism, the death penalty, fierce anti-Chinese rhetoric etc.
Biden is quietly forgetting about some of his past positions....
The Overton window in a country where you take your gun to church as well your gloves and collection is placed slightly differently from the UKs.
On Brexit and despite non stop anti brexit and HMG postings by Scott I really expect a deal will be made with the EU this Autumn
I just hope so. Trouble tis the Brexiters have shifted from promises of 'easiest thing in the world' and 'everything but migration' to threats of the hardest Brexit. Where is this shift going to end? You can, one hopes, forgive us for worry and doubt and fear for such basic things as food and medicine. IIRC one of the Cabinet was saying that medicine was a doddle because there had never been problems even during the virus. Well, that was an absolute lie. There were problems during the virus, and problems before - especially when one considers that the actual formulation/brand is as important for many people as the basic active principle used. And many of us need our medicine, or our partners [edit and families] do.
I agree with you and to be honest both sides need a sensible deal. Each to give a little in the interest of everyone. Further down the line I expect we will join the single market
Well good - I want the consensus to remain that it's going to be close so I can sell that Trump EC opening spread at about 245.
Want to double that bet to £10, Kinablu ?
In seriousness, here's a question: apart from the published polls which come out, what gives you confidence that Biden is winning by a storm at the moment? Because it is not shown by actual results - the Democrats lost a House seat (@RCS says we shouldn't read too much into CA-25 but the very best interpretation is that it doesn't suggest an electorate fired up to give Trump a bloody nose where possible); it wasn't shown in PA when more Republicans turned out for their primary than Democrats did besides the latter having an advantage in registered voters; there has been plenty of anecdotes about Trump posters in backyards still been commonplace but no one seems to be talking of the rapid spread of Biden euphoria. Where is the evidence on the ground to back up the polls?
That is why the Republicans in that article seem confident.
Fine with the tenner. Although I really ought to be giving you a shade of odds now. It was a genuine consensus even money chance when we did the original bet.
I have a number of ways to explain why I see the big loss for him.
Writing one at the moment - "WH2020 through the lens of the Deer Hunter" - which I will make sure to post when you are on the thread.
Looking forward to it Kinablu and it is fine with evens, happy to take the risk!
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.
"very right wing"?
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
There are some Democrats who could easily be Kippers with their support for economic protectionism, the death penalty, fierce anti-Chinese rhetoric etc.
Makes you wonder why the Tories have been so keen to be so closely identified with Trump.
I was going to wade into the discussion about lawyers. My contribution contained a nice little pithily worded phrase, but quite frankly no-one would go about their day happier or better informed as a result. So instead, let me relate the tears of happiness I have just shed in picking my youngest daughter up from her first day back at school. She has spent a whole day surrounded by people her own age, and I think she is happier than she's been in months, and therefore I am too.
Great news. I wish all children could be so fortunate.
Swedish children were spared that torment. For which I personally am immensely grateful. There is no reason to have turned their worlds upside down.
But it is actually older teenagers and young adults I am most worried about. Lockdown has been horrific for many of them. When we look back on this in ten years time, I think it will be universally acknowledged that thumping children and young adults - psychologically, socially and economically - was an act of collective idiocy.
I agree. My16 year old son met up with 3 pals yesterday for the first time since February. It was one of their birthdays. They played tennis, went cycling, tried fishing and had a laugh. It was probably illegal. And frankly my dear, I don't give a damn.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Just one small observation. Isn't it interesting that the man who will - probably - smash Trump is a very conservative, traditional Democrat who has refused to countenance the crazier schemes of his party's radical base, the class war, the identity politics etc? Former Trump voters feel safe lending their vote to Biden because they know that they can get rid of the loony on their own side without letting in the extremists on the other.
If it were Sanders on the Democratic ticket, a lot of Trumpers would stick to their man like glue and it would be a much more harrowing fight. But nah, this whole 'moderate Left' thing will never catch on...
Biden is running on a platform massively to the left of Obama - he's taken chunks of Warren and Bernie's platform into his own. You are projecting biggley as to what Biden is proposing.
Biden has said that he would veto a 'Medicare for All' bill if it ever reached his desk, even if it were passed by both Houses of Congress! The US progressives despise him as a corrupt corporatist warmonger who's made a career of working with Republicans, making un-PC gaffes, passing tough law-and-order legislation, and blocking real change every step of the way.
That's why he's likely to win the country, and win convincingly.
He's to the left of Hillary Clinton on many issues, but certainy to the right of Bernie Sanders. He is very popular in the black community, which Hillary never was. The Republicans have one hell of a voter suppression job on their hands. I wouldn't put it past them, though.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
Not very good at maths, is he? The site’s been up for 15 years not three decades.
Aren't we due a regeneration?
We’re all now going to be watching any future new arrivals to see if they are the new new new new SeanT.
Will be a bit disconcerting for any new posters who aren’t.
You can spot them in an instant
Which is why Sean is wasting his time trying to hide his identity.
He would be better advised to try and stop behaving like a twat on social media. With the spinoff benefit that this would make his new accounts a little harder to spot.
He does not try very hard to hide them for sure, just changes name at the top
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.
"very right wing"?
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
There are some Democrats who could easily be Kippers with their support for economic protectionism, the death penalty, fierce anti-Chinese rhetoric etc.
Makes you wonder why the Tories have been so keen to be so closely identified with Trump.
Have they?
I think they've tried to be respectful to the office he holds.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.
"very right wing"?
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
There are some Democrats who could easily be Kippers with their support for economic protectionism, the death penalty, fierce anti-Chinese rhetoric etc.
Makes you wonder why the Tories have been so keen to be so closely identified with Trump.
Have they?
I think they've tried to be respectful to the office he holds.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.
"very right wing"?
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
There are some Democrats who could easily be Kippers with their support for economic protectionism, the death penalty, fierce anti-Chinese rhetoric etc.
Biden is quietly forgetting about some of his past positions....
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.
"very right wing"?
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
There are some Democrats who could easily be Kippers with their support for economic protectionism, the death penalty, fierce anti-Chinese rhetoric etc.
Biden is quietly forgetting about some of his past positions....
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
Zero chance Gorsuch would have agreed to that.
The 14th amendement is one that conservative justices consider very, very, very narrowly - except when it helps them win an election.
If I had to guess, they are using the same list as for a country of birth question that's asked on some other questionnaire.
Yep, it will have a single database table list of countries, common to many forms. Doing it any other way can cause a nightmare. In a perfect world you'd have a field called Current that could flag old countries as False, but there is often a changeover time when people might have various documents with old names.
Well good - I want the consensus to remain that it's going to be close so I can sell that Trump EC opening spread at about 245.
Want to double that bet to £10, Kinablu ?
In seriousness, here's a question: apart from the published polls which come out, what gives you confidence that Biden is winning by a storm at the moment? Because it is not shown by actual results - the Democrats lost a House seat (@RCS says we shouldn't read too much into CA-25 but the very best interpretation is that it doesn't suggest an electorate fired up to give Trump a bloody nose where possible); it wasn't shown in PA when more Republicans turned out for their primary than Democrats did besides the latter having an advantage in registered voters; there has been plenty of anecdotes about Trump posters in backyards still been commonplace but no one seems to be talking of the rapid spread of Biden euphoria. Where is the evidence on the ground to back up the polls?
That is why the Republicans in that article seem confident.
People aren't voting about Trump or Biden in these smaller elections. In the big one that's the main point... It's not exactly the same but backing many gains for the Lib Dems off the back of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election would have been a similiar category error in terms of UK political betting at the 2019 GE. Polls are a better indicator.
There is a big difference. Brecon & Radnorshire had a turnout of 59.7%. CA-25 was sub 30%.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
The second amendment only talks about "arms", whereas the law in question here has a specific listing of protected characteristics.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
The second amendment only talks about "arms", whereas the law in question here has a specific listing of protected characteristics.
Sex being one of them. LGBT falls under that, just as modern weapons fall under "arms".
On Brexit and despite non stop anti brexit and HMG postings by Scott I really expect a deal will be made with the EU this Autumn
I just hope so. Trouble tis the Brexiters have shifted from promises of 'easiest thing in the world' and 'everything but migration' to threats of the hardest Brexit. Where is this shift going to end? You can, one hopes, forgive us for worry and doubt and fear for such basic things as food and medicine. IIRC one of the Cabinet was saying that medicine was a doddle because there had never been problems even during the virus. Well, that was an absolute lie. There were problems during the virus, and problems before - especially when one considers that the actual formulation/brand is as important for many people as the basic active principle used. And many of us need our medicine, or our partners [edit and families] do.
I agree with you and to be honest both sides need a sensible deal. Each to give a little in the interest of everyone. Further down the line I expect we will join the single market
It will be a UK capitulation with the pig wearing a dress and lipstick and presented as a winner.
"Our testing is so much bigger and more advanced than any other country (we have done a great job on this!) that it shows more cases. Without testing, or weak testing, we would be showing almost no cases. Testing is a double edged sword - Makes us look bad, but good to have!!!"
At least the US is publishing a figure for no of people tested.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
The second amendment only talks about "arms", whereas the law in question here has a specific listing of protected characteristics.
Sex being one of them. LGBT falls under that, just as modern weapons fall under "arms".
That's what I find interesting. Is someone's sexual orientation their sex? Call me old fashioned, but I thought "sex" meant "gender"
"Our testing is so much bigger and more advanced than any other country (we have done a great job on this!) that it shows more cases. Without testing, or weak testing, we would be showing almost no cases. Testing is a double edged sword - Makes us look bad, but good to have!!!"
At least the US is publishing a figure for no of people tested.
Hancock lost count weeks ago
I thought most countries reported tests rather than people anyway?
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
The second amendment only talks about "arms", whereas the law in question here has a specific listing of protected characteristics.
Sex being one of them. LGBT falls under that, just as modern weapons fall under "arms".
That's what I find interesting. Is someone's sexual orientation their sex? Call me old fashioned, but I thought "sex" meant "gender"
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
The second amendment only talks about "arms", whereas the law in question here has a specific listing of protected characteristics.
Sex being one of them. LGBT falls under that, just as modern weapons fall under "arms".
That's what I find interesting. Is someone's sexual orientation their sex? Call me old fashioned, but I thought "sex" meant "gender"
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
Interesting viewpoint, it falls under pure gender discrimination definition there too.
Well good - I want the consensus to remain that it's going to be close so I can sell that Trump EC opening spread at about 245.
Want to double that bet to £10, Kinablu ?
In seriousness, here's a question: apart from the published polls which come out, what gives you confidence that Biden is winning by a storm at the moment? Because it is not shown by actual results - the Democrats lost a House seat (@RCS says we shouldn't read too much into CA-25 but the very best interpretation is that it doesn't suggest an electorate fired up to give Trump a bloody nose where possible); it wasn't shown in PA when more Republicans turned out for their primary than Democrats did besides the latter having an advantage in registered voters; there has been plenty of anecdotes about Trump posters in backyards still been commonplace but no one seems to be talking of the rapid spread of Biden euphoria. Where is the evidence on the ground to back up the polls?
That is why the Republicans in that article seem confident.
People aren't voting about Trump or Biden in these smaller elections. In the big one that's the main point... It's not exactly the same but backing many gains for the Lib Dems off the back of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election would have been a similiar category error in terms of UK political betting at the 2019 GE. Polls are a better indicator.
There is a big difference. Brecon & Radnorshire had a turnout of 59.7%. CA-25 was sub 30%.
Biden's biggest problem, surely. Enthusiasm.
Trump was able to raise a record USD14m in 24 hours online on Sunday. No doubting the enthusiasm of his campaign.
If I had to guess, they are using the same list as for a country of birth question that's asked on some other questionnaire.
Yep, it will have a single database table list of countries, common to many forms. Doing it any other way can cause a nightmare. In a perfect world you'd have a field called Current that could flag old countries as False, but there is often a changeover time when people might have various documents with old names.
They have only had 30 years or so to update it, understandable it is still there right enough. I had same with HMRC on some letters for future state pension and notes, they give your status and data and state if not correct you must contact them. I contacted them and the woman said just ignore it, the computer puts that on every letter and its hard to change the computer, I get loads of calls every day on it.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
Interesting viewpoint, it falls under pure gender discrimination definition there too.
That makes more sense to me. I don't have a problem with the ruling, just was curious because it looked as though they were adding a protected characteristic.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
Interesting viewpoint, it falls under pure gender discrimination definition there too.
That makes more sense to me. I don't have a problem with the ruling, just was curious because it looked as though they were adding a protected characteristic.
In substance of course they were. But in principle all they were doing was looking very hard at the existing law.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
British has always been inclusive, having been adopted to meld the Scottish and English together.
I wonder what the percentages would be if you asked the same about "English", which has always seemed to me more tribal, at least as some people use it.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
While Gorsuch was appointed by Trump, he is not as conservative as Alito and Thomas (although still conservative). You can divide the court as follows:
Very liberal - Sotomayor, Ginsburg Somewhat liberal - Kagan, Breyer Somewhat conservative - Roberts, Gorsuch Very conservative - Kavaunagh, Thomas, Alito
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Sometimes, you can almost hear Cummings talking.....
Of course Johnson sees no point in talking until Autumn, as Cummings has already decided we will no deal and that is the decision that Johnson will implement.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Is it lying when the person making the statement had no connection with the (or interest in) truth? As opposed to randomly saying wrong stuff.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
"Well, I hope so, Blackadder. You know, if there's one thing I've learnt from being in the Army, it's never ignore a pooh-pooh. I knew a Major who got pooh-poohed, made the mistake of ignoring the pooh-pooh. He pooh-poohed it! Fatal error! 'Cos it turned out all along that the soldier who pooh-poohed him had been pooh-poohing a lot of other officers, who pooh-poohed their pooh-poohs! In the end, we had to disband the regiment. Morale totally destroyed...by pooh-pooh!"
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.
"very right wing"?
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
Utter rubbish, this Tory government has kept taxes low, Sanders wanted to raise it, this Tory government wants to control immigration, the Democratic party wants to expand immigration.
This Tory Government wants to preserve historic statues, the Democrats want to tear most of them down
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Sometimes, you can almost hear Cummings talking.....
Of course Johnson sees no point in talking until Autumn, as Cummings has already decided we will no deal and that is the decision that Johnson will implement.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
"Well, I hope so, Blackadder. You know, if there's one thing I've learnt from being in the Army, it's never ignore a pooh-pooh. I knew a Major who got pooh-poohed, made the mistake of ignoring the pooh-pooh. He pooh-poohed it! Fatal error! 'Cos it turned out all along that the soldier who pooh-poohed him had been pooh-poohing a lot of other officers, who pooh-poohed their pooh-poohs! In the end, we had to disband the regiment. Morale totally destroyed...by pooh-pooh!"
British has always been inclusive, having been adopted to meld the Scottish and English together.
I wonder what the percentages would be if you asked the same about "English", which has always seemed to me more tribal, at least as some people use it.
Good. Better if it was 0%. If you ask the same about colour and being 'English' I would want to know about colour and being 'Welsh' 'Scottish' 'Irish' etc.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.
"very right wing"?
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
Utter rubbish, this Tory government has kept taxes low, Sanders wanted to raise it, this Tory government wants to control immigration, the Democratic party wants to expand immigration.
This Tory Government wants to preserve historic statues, the Democrats want to tear most of them down
The level to which Sanders wanted to raise federal taxes, is quite strangely, below the level in the UK currently.
As to immigration - Sanders has long been an advocate of controlling immigration at the low skilled end of the market. To prevent a race to the bottom.... Hence his opposition to NAFTA.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
Oh, absolutely, as I said I think it's a pretty clear case but the Supreme Court isn't known for always following the letter of the law.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
While Gorsuch was appointed by Trump, he is not as conservative as Alito and Thomas (although still conservative). You can divide the court as follows:
Very liberal - Sotomayor, Ginsburg Somewhat liberal - Kagan, Breyer Somewhat conservative - Roberts, Gorsuch Very conservative - Kavaunagh, Thomas, Alito
Gorsuch is an originalist which I had taken to assume he would have read Title VII as not meaning sexual orientation.
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Shall we have a bet as to how many previous red lines the UK will in the end cross in their capitulation.
No.
I can't see any way to define that which would be mutually interpreted the same. Besides compromise involves changes on both sides.
Keeping us dynamically aligned to EU laws without any say or divergence is the sole red line that matters to me.
What about The Court of PB?
For example. I believe it was a violation of a red line to establish a border in the Irish Sea. As does everyone on here.
I appreciate that for very valid reasons you don't have a problem with this but it was something that Boris said no British Prime Minister could ever do and therefore whatever one thinks of the policy itself, it is a red line crossed.
If we use the same logic to examine previous govt positions vs the agreed outcome we have a way forward.
My bet? £10 from you to a charity of my choice if more than two are violated. £10 from me to a charity of your choice if fewer than two are violated.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
For the record I still believe Trump could win, a lot could happen between now and November.
What I find naive is that you believe Trump when he says a million people applied for tickets.
I don't doubt for a second that the core is pumped up but it's going to take more than the core to win.
You sound as though you want him to win, would I be right?
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
The second amendment only talks about "arms", whereas the law in question here has a specific listing of protected characteristics.
Sex being one of them. LGBT falls under that, just as modern weapons fall under "arms".
That's what I find interesting. Is someone's sexual orientation their sex? Call me old fashioned, but I thought "sex" meant "gender"
You're old fashioned.
My daughters keep explaining the difference between sex and gender to me and I keep forgetting which is which and what the rules are.
Well good - I want the consensus to remain that it's going to be close so I can sell that Trump EC opening spread at about 245.
Want to double that bet to £10, Kinablu ?
In seriousness, here's a question: apart from the published polls which come out, what gives you confidence that Biden is winning by a storm at the moment? Because it is not shown by actual results - the Democrats lost a House seat (@RCS says we shouldn't read too much into CA-25 but the very best interpretation is that it doesn't suggest an electorate fired up to give Trump a bloody nose where possible); it wasn't shown in PA when more Republicans turned out for their primary than Democrats did besides the latter having an advantage in registered voters; there has been plenty of anecdotes about Trump posters in backyards still been commonplace but no one seems to be talking of the rapid spread of Biden euphoria. Where is the evidence on the ground to back up the polls?
That is why the Republicans in that article seem confident.
People aren't voting about Trump or Biden in these smaller elections. In the big one that's the main point... It's not exactly the same but backing many gains for the Lib Dems off the back of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election would have been a similiar category error in terms of UK political betting at the 2019 GE. Polls are a better indicator.
There is a big difference. Brecon & Radnorshire had a turnout of 59.7%. CA-25 was sub 30%.
Biden's biggest problem, surely. Enthusiasm.
Trump was able to raise a record USD14m in 24 hours online on Sunday. No doubting the enthusiasm of his campaign.
Biden's biggest problem is going to be GOP attempts at voter suppression as we saw in Georgia last week.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
The second amendment only talks about "arms", whereas the law in question here has a specific listing of protected characteristics.
Sex being one of them. LGBT falls under that, just as modern weapons fall under "arms".
That's what I find interesting. Is someone's sexual orientation their sex? Call me old fashioned, but I thought "sex" meant "gender"
Sex is the hardware, gender the software. Sexuality is who you are attracted to.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
Dec 12th was in reality a choice between very right wing populism and far-left populism. However ridiculous Johnson and his team are, the electorate correctly deduced that it wasn't quite as ridiculous as Corbyn et al.
"very right wing"?
The current UK government is to the left of the Democratic party.
In fact, I think that they are to the left of Sanders, in nearly all policies?
Utter rubbish, this Tory government has kept taxes low, Sanders wanted to raise it, this Tory government wants to control immigration, the Democratic party wants to expand immigration.
This Tory Government wants to preserve historic statues, the Democrats want to tear most of them down
The level to which Sanders wanted to raise federal taxes, is quite strangely, below the level in the UK currently.
As to immigration - Sanders has long been an advocate of controlling immigration at the low skilled end of the market. To prevent a race to the bottom.... Hence his opposition to NAFTA.
So what, the top rate of US income tax is lower than any western nation bar Switzerland and Monaco, that does not change the fact the Tories cut the UK top rate of income tax, the Democrats raise the US top rate of income tax.
Sanders opposed the Iraq War, most Tories voted for it. Sanders nor Biden want a points based immigration system as the Tories do, Biden is pro NAFTA.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Nice to see the SCOTUS has not yet been corrupted by the new evangelism. Excellent outcome.
Honestly the law was so clear here I'm struggling to understand what the dissent could be based on. I will check out Kavanaugh's prose later but I may end up hurling the computer across the room like when reading Robert's Holder vs Shelby County decision.
Wouldn't the dissent be based on the wording of the law? From what I've read it only mentions protections based on someones sex, not sexual orientation.
Which ironically could have protected the T but not LGB. Glad the right decision was reached but should have been based on 14th Amendment too.
The right decision may have been reached, but shouldn't Congress be the one changing the law, not the courts?
No. Not here.
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
The second amendment only talks about "arms", whereas the law in question here has a specific listing of protected characteristics.
Sex being one of them. LGBT falls under that, just as modern weapons fall under "arms".
That's what I find interesting. Is someone's sexual orientation their sex? Call me old fashioned, but I thought "sex" meant "gender"
You're old fashioned.
My daughters keep explaining the difference between sex and gender to me and I keep forgetting which is which and what the rules are.
The good news is the judgment doesn't rely on any such distinctions.
Even the part of the judgment dealing with transgender claiants simply says:
"If you would sack a man for declaring that she is going to live the rest of her life as a woman, but you would not sack a woman for saying the same thing, you are discriminating".
(Arguably, that is contrary to the position sometimes taken that transgender women not only are women but always have been women. The trans people I know struggle with the point.)
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
If you sack a man for being in a relationship with a man, but you would not sack a woman for being in a relationship with a man you are discriminating. It is both simple and very clever. Deeply sad it is necessary under statute and for the Donald, but there you go.
I would like to emphasise that I was very, very surprised by Gorsuch's concurrence.
While Gorsuch was appointed by Trump, he is not as conservative as Alito and Thomas (although still conservative). You can divide the court as follows:
Very liberal - Sotomayor, Ginsburg Somewhat liberal - Kagan, Breyer Somewhat conservative - Roberts, Gorsuch Very conservative - Kavaunagh, Thomas, Alito
Gorsuch is an originalist which I had taken to assume he would have read Title VII as not meaning sexual orientation.
Under the very literal argument made by TheWhiteRabbit an originalist definition would still apply here.
Once it was accepted that homosexuality was legal, the rest of these decisions being decided this way was inevitable and could/should have been done under the 14th Amendment. Sacking a man for legally doing what you wouldn't sack a woman for doing (or vice-versa) is clearly breaking the law.
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
But this time he's IN the pooh pooh.
Saying he is in the pooh pooh could be taken as trying to diminish the pooh pooh. Which is pooh poohing the pooh pooh. Which is exactly how you end up in the pooh pooh. Through pooh poohing when a chap tells you that you may be in the pooh pooh.
"Today, we must decide whether an employer can fire someone simply for being homosexual or transgender. The answer is clear. An employer who fires an individual for being homosexual or transgender fires that person for traits or actions it would not have questioned in members of a different sex. Sex plays a necessary and undisguisable role in the decision, exactly what Title VII forbids." -- Neil Gorsuch
Compare that the Georgia poll which showed little change and we could have some very weird results...
America is waking up to the insanity of having your head of government (and state in their case) a populist headline grabbing incompetent. The British electorate will gradually also realise what has happened to their once stable system of government.
I too sense the tide turning. Have done for a while now, Dec 12th notwithstanding. Trump being booted out with some considerable force this November will (imo) be iconic. As with his election it will mean much more than the bare event.
A couple of keepers there people, as Trump reveals almost a million applied for tickets to his Tulsa rally.
Wonder how many Biden's getting.
The repubs are pumped!
Is that an actual million or a Trump "million" like the Trump "millions" that crowded out Washington for his inauguration?
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Be careful. People pooh-poohed the size of Trump's rallies in 2016 as an indicator of how he was doing.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
For the record I still believe Trump could win, a lot could happen between now and November.
What I find naive is that you believe Trump when he says a million people applied for tickets.
I don't doubt for a second that the core is pumped up but it's going to take more than the core to win.
You sound as though you want him to win, would I be right?
No I'm just submitting some evidence that Biden might not be the shoo-in that some on here think he is.
I don;t really care who wins, because I don't think it makes anywhere near as much difference as people think. Today's Supreme Court decision makes that clear. The US constitution is working just fine, thank you, Trump or no Trump.
But then business takes me to the US twice a year (before Corona). I've been under Obama and I've been under Trump. Almost no difference.
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Sometimes, you can almost hear Cummings talking.....
Of course Johnson sees no point in talking until Autumn, as Cummings has already decided we will no deal and that is the decision that Johnson will implement.
No!
Deal keeping things mostly the same with scope for "phased future divergence" and in the meantime "dynamic democratic alignment".
An extension that is not an extension.
Hailed as a triumph by Boris Johnson and Philip Thompson.
It gives 6 weeks to reach an agreement. Flesh can be added to the bones afterwards if one is struck no doubt.
Shall we have a bet as to how many previous red lines the UK will in the end cross in their capitulation.
No.
I can't see any way to define that which would be mutually interpreted the same. Besides compromise involves changes on both sides.
Keeping us dynamically aligned to EU laws without any say or divergence is the sole red line that matters to me.
What about The Court of PB?
For example. I believe it was a violation of a red line to establish a border in the Irish Sea. As does everyone on here.
I appreciate that for very valid reasons you don't have a problem with this but it was something that Boris said no British Prime Minister could ever do and therefore whatever one thinks of the policy itself, it is a red line crossed.
If we use the same logic to examine previous govt positions vs the agreed outcome we have a way forward.
My bet? £10 from you to a charity of my choice if more than two are violated. £10 from me to a charity of your choice if fewer than two are violated.
Deal?
This is the problem. You believe that's a violation, the overwhelming majority of PB believes it, but I do not.
I don't believe it was a violation of a red line to create special arrangements with control over their future given to Stormont to decide upon. I don't believe devolution is a red line broken.
Had Stormont not had control over the future of the special arrangements then absolutely 100% it would have been a violation. But since Stormont does its not, its devolution. Just as if there were special arrangements for Scotland negotiated with their future in Holyrood's hands then that would be fair enough too.
I interpret that different to you. I do not accept that as a border down the Irish Sea. And it wouldn't surprise me if what's eventually negotiated is split the same way - I'm happy with it because I interpret it as OK within what we were seeking, the EU are happy with it because they interpret it as OK within what they were seeking.
That is the nature of all such compromises. To find where you can fudge the trickiest issues - and it was what May failed to grasp the nettle of but Boris didn't make her mistake then and he won't now either I expect.
Comments
If it were Sanders on the Democratic ticket, a lot of Trumpers would stick to their man like glue and it would be a much more harrowing fight. But nah, this whole 'moderate Left' thing will never catch on...
We all know what an expert he is on Caledonian affairs.
https://twitter.com/nprpolitics/status/1272526708151930881
But it is actually older teenagers and young adults I am most worried about. Lockdown has been horrific for many of them. When we look back on this in ten years time, I think it will be universally acknowledged that thumping children and young adults - psychologically, socially and economically - was an act of collective idiocy.
That's why he's likely to win the country, and win convincingly.
But it comes back to the same issue. We keep hearing about how everyone is turning against Trump and he is increasingly despised but, funnily enough, when people get the chance to show their anger, they don't bother to turn up.
The arguments for Biden at the moment seem to rest on the polls and a vague sense that there are shy Biden voters who are keeping their enthusiasm for him under wraps and can't be arsed to vote for him when they get a chance but will come out in November. That might be true but it doesn't back up the view Trump is a certain goner.
One of everything, in fact.
There are enough SeanTs to fill *all* the squares on a Social Identity Matrix.
I think they've tried to be respectful to the office he holds.
https://youtu.be/p4EAc0QFubs
Congress passed the law and a modern interpretation of the law includes this. Whether it was originally intended or not is moot.
Otherwise you could say the second amendment protects the right to own muskets but not modern weaponry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hne29xkUPbg
The 14th amendement is one that conservative justices consider very, very, very narrowly - except when it helps them win an election.
"Our testing is so much bigger and more advanced than any other country (we have done a great job on this!) that it shows more cases. Without testing, or weak testing, we would be showing almost no cases. Testing is a double edged sword - Makes us look bad, but good to have!!!"
At least the US is publishing a figure for no of people tested.
Hancock lost count weeks ago
Happy now @RobD ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/14/trump-right-worry-glass-of-water-318695
Trump was able to raise a record USD14m in 24 hours online on Sunday. No doubting the enthusiasm of his campaign.
I can't believe anyone is still native enough to believe the stuff Trump tweets. He lies as naturally as he breathes.
Others pooh-poohed the pooh-pooh!
Result? Trump victory.
I wonder what the percentages would be if you asked the same about "English", which has always seemed to me more tribal, at least as some people use it.
Very liberal - Sotomayor, Ginsburg
Somewhat liberal - Kagan, Breyer
Somewhat conservative - Roberts, Gorsuch
Very conservative - Kavaunagh, Thomas, Alito
A philosophical conundrum for the ages.
This Tory Government wants to preserve historic statues, the Democrats want to tear most of them down
I can't see any way to define that which would be mutually interpreted the same. Besides compromise involves changes on both sides.
Keeping us dynamically aligned to EU laws without any say or divergence is the sole red line that matters to me.
As to immigration - Sanders has long been an advocate of controlling immigration at the low skilled end of the market. To prevent a race to the bottom.... Hence his opposition to NAFTA.
For example. I believe it was a violation of a red line to establish a border in the Irish Sea. As does everyone on here.
I appreciate that for very valid reasons you don't have a problem with this but it was something that Boris said no British Prime Minister could ever do and therefore whatever one thinks of the policy itself, it is a red line crossed.
If we use the same logic to examine previous govt positions vs the agreed outcome we have a way forward.
My bet? £10 from you to a charity of my choice if more than two are violated. £10 from me to a charity of your choice if fewer than two are violated.
Deal?
What I find naive is that you believe Trump when he says a million people applied for tickets.
I don't doubt for a second that the core is pumped up but it's going to take more than the core to win.
You sound as though you want him to win, would I be right?
Sanders opposed the Iraq War, most Tories voted for it. Sanders nor Biden want a points based immigration system as the Tories do, Biden is pro NAFTA.
Even the part of the judgment dealing with transgender claiants simply says:
"If you would sack a man for declaring that she is going to live the rest of her life as a woman, but you would not sack a woman for saying the same thing, you are discriminating".
(Arguably, that is contrary to the position sometimes taken that transgender women not only are women but always have been women. The trans people I know struggle with the point.)
Once it was accepted that homosexuality was legal, the rest of these decisions being decided this way was inevitable and could/should have been done under the 14th Amendment. Sacking a man for legally doing what you wouldn't sack a woman for doing (or vice-versa) is clearly breaking the law.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeF1JO7Ki8E
-- Neil Gorsuch
That is some hot fire on the dissenting judges.
I don;t really care who wins, because I don't think it makes anywhere near as much difference as people think. Today's Supreme Court decision makes that clear. The US constitution is working just fine, thank you, Trump or no Trump.
But then business takes me to the US twice a year (before Corona). I've been under Obama and I've been under Trump. Almost no difference.
Deal keeping things mostly the same with scope for "phased future divergence" and in the meantime "dynamic democratic alignment".
An extension that is not an extension.
Hailed as a triumph by Boris Johnson and Philip Thompson.
Bet you any money.
I don't believe it was a violation of a red line to create special arrangements with control over their future given to Stormont to decide upon. I don't believe devolution is a red line broken.
Had Stormont not had control over the future of the special arrangements then absolutely 100% it would have been a violation. But since Stormont does its not, its devolution. Just as if there were special arrangements for Scotland negotiated with their future in Holyrood's hands then that would be fair enough too.
I interpret that different to you. I do not accept that as a border down the Irish Sea. And it wouldn't surprise me if what's eventually negotiated is split the same way - I'm happy with it because I interpret it as OK within what we were seeking, the EU are happy with it because they interpret it as OK within what they were seeking.
That is the nature of all such compromises. To find where you can fudge the trickiest issues - and it was what May failed to grasp the nettle of but Boris didn't make her mistake then and he won't now either I expect.