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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big challenge for Johnson and his minsters is that their rat

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  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,485
    edited June 2020
    RobD said:

    Ah, I think that will post something to your user profile rather than attach it to a comment here. Try the comment form here:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8761/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-a-big-challenge-for-johnson-and-his-minsters-is-that-their-rat
    Test deleted.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    Foxy said:

    Recently something fairly similar was done in Noughts and Crosses.

    Quite an interesting idea.

    It's just a version of this from the 60s isn't it?

    https://exploringyourmind.com/blue-eyes-and-brown-eyes-the-jane-elliott-experiment/#:~:text=Jane Elliott's experiment,on the blue-eyed students.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    On thread, this is the most recent YouGov write up of their data, published at 7.20pm last night:

    "There is now a 15-pt margin between the 56% of Britons who say the government has done a bad job of managing the outbreak and the 41% who believe it has done a good job. The survey was conducted from 27-29 May, prior to the most recent loosening of lockdown regulations."

    I'm confused, the graph in the thread shows a net negative rating of -3% not -15%?

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/06/03/approval-government-handling-coronavirus-sinks-low
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872

    HY is a blood and soil nationalist.

    You gotta laugh at Tories. Remember when they screamed their heads off at a jock being their prime minister.
    Your the supporter of the Nationalist party not me.

    Personally I also never questioned Brown's right to be PM under our parliamentary system
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    RobD said:

    He's already had it.

    And?

    The rules are to isolate.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    kjh said:

    Test deleted.


  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    RobD said:

    As pointed out earlier, the differences between the Nordic countries seems to demolish his theory right off the bat.
    I'd hazard a wild guess that you haven't actually watched the 34-minute interview.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,482
    isam said:



    Michael Portillo has a programme that is critical of the British Empire each Friday night at the moment on Ch5. So far it has covered India, the Caribbean and South Africa, well worth a watch.

    What bothers me is that the people negatively impacted by immigration tend to be the poor in the country emigrated to - the establishment in England still live off the riches gained from exploiting the commonwealth subjects, while those who never did have to compete with their descendants for jobs and state services. New housing estates and hospitals that the growing population require should be built on the land and funded by the money that went to the profiteers of the slave trade.

    Though I note your use of the word "tend to", I'm not sure it's even as simple as that. The English poor did not benefit so much directly from plantation ownership, but they consumed cheap sugar and tobacco made by slave labour as well. And I'm not aware of much evidence that its origins bothered them, at least until after 1809.

    And the recent waves of immigration have probably made public services, often used by the white working classes, cheaper and better than would otherwise be the case. There have been positive, as well as negative, impacts.

    The indirect effects of immigration on different parts of the UK are so complex, dynamic and controversial that they defy any simple summary, which is frustrating for those who like to apportion blame.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    edited June 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    And?

    The rules are to isolate.
    Because right now the ability to know if you have had it or not is not widely available I imagine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872

    You said only a few days ago that Britain was not part of Europe.
    Not part of mainland continental Europe no
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,485
    kjh said:

    Test deleted.

    Rob,

    Yes you are correct. It did.

    I don't want to attach my picture to another person's comment. I just want to post a fresh comment with the picture. Sorry I am being a complete idiot.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Those numbers from Friston on the UK are very interesting. 80% 'not in the game' that's an even bigger dark matter estimate than Professor Gupta's
    That was effectively his maximum figure though. His central forecast was essentially that 50% are non-susceptible (still a large proportion).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    RobD said:

    He's already had it.
    The Political Editor of the Daily Telegraph appears to have forgotten. Clearly they have short memories in the Lobby.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Anti-Irish sentiment is alive and kicking in today’s England. Is there any country they don’t either hate or fear or despise? San Marino?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    I'd hazard a wild guess that you haven't actually watched the 34-minute interview.
    No, I read the summary posted here, in particular the first point:

    The differences between countries are not primarily down to government actions, but due to 'intrinsic' differences in the populations
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724
    edited June 2020
    That’s insane. Spike Milligan is buried, IIRC, in Sussex with “Dúirt mé leat go raibh mé breoite”, Irish for "I told you I was ill", on his gravestone. The local Anglican diocese in fact said it HAD to be written in Irish.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    kjh said:

    Rob,

    Yes you are correct. It did.

    I don't want to attach my picture to another person's comment. I just want to post a fresh comment with the picture. Sorry I am being a complete idiot.
    Just delete all the text in the comment box before uploading your picture. It should then appear on its own.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    Fishing said:

    Though I note your use of the word "tend to", I'm not sure it's even as simple as that. The English poor did not benefit so much directly from plantation ownership, but they consumed cheap sugar and tobacco made by slave labour as well. And I'm not aware of much evidence that its origins bothered them, at least until after 1809.

    And the recent waves of immigration have probably made public services, often used by the white working classes, cheaper and better than would otherwise be the case. There have been positive, as well as negative, impacts.

    The indirect effects of immigration on different parts of the UK are so complex, dynamic and controversial that they defy any simple summary, which is frustrating for those who like to apportion blame.
    If we are being picky, access to cheap sugar and tobacco didn't benefit them at all!

    I take your point, and I did meant to imply that the whole country benefited, but the poor had their lives made bearable whilst the rich still live a life of absolute luxury today on the back of it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited June 2020

    Anti-Irish sentiment is alive and kicking in today’s England. Is there any country they don’t either hate or fear or despise? San Marino?
    No we do not despise other nations unlike Scottish nationalists who despise England
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    DougSeal said:

    That’s insane. Spike Milligan is buried, IIRC, in Sussex with “Dúirt mé leat go raibh mé breoite”, Irish for "I told you I was ill", on his gravestone. Absolutely the wrong decision.
    An easy win for the family on appeal, I would have thought.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Sandpit said:

    Of course Britain is part of Europe. Not wanting to belong to a political organisation doesn't change the geography.
    Of course Scotland is part of Britain. Not wanting to belong to a political organisation doesn't change the geography.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    Scott_xP said:

    And?

    The rules are to isolate.
    And it means he can skip PMQs next week.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    dixiedean said:

    Wouldn't put it past Boris to be the first to get it twice.
    Obviously hope not.
    If Boris gets it twice we've got bigger problems.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    RobD said:

    No, I read the summary posted here, in particular the first point:

    The differences between countries are not primarily down to government actions, but due to 'intrinsic' differences in the populations
    Yup. Thought so. Watch the tape when you get chance.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122
    Nigelb said:

    Some reflections on TKAM in this interesting tweet.

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1268264740171759616
    That is a very powerful and articulate piece. Thanks for posting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    Yup. Thought so. Watch the tape when you get chance.
    Is the statement wrong?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Nonsense. The air was thick with ant-Scottish venom.
    Didfn't Speaker Martin catch some of that as well?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    edited June 2020
    RobD said:

    Because right now the ability to know if you have had it or not is not widely available I imagine.
    If Boris had died from it, Scott would be criticising "Bozo" for being buried too close to the mourners
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,482



    I think a new concept has come into being, Anglospherean, part of a continent of the mind (of a certain type).

    I think that's very true. Geography does not always correlate directly with culture or identity. History can play strange tricks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Of course Scotland is part of Britain. Not wanting to belong to a political organisation doesn't change the geography.
    Except for the referendum where they decided they did want to be part of the UK, correct.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,297

    For the same reason that he'll join the icons of the "I don't want to be locked down" cheerleaders?

    Got to say, the explanation for the differences between Norway and Sweden that the tenfold extra death rate in Sweden is down to innate intrinsic differences between Norwegians and Swedes rather than Government action is a little hard to swallow.
    Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence, after all. I'm not qualified to do a detailed critique of an epidemiological model, but a couple of red flags flutter in front of me.

    One is that there's not much doubt that there is a germ involved in this disease, so you have to do a lot of explaining to justify the claim that extreme measures to stop the spread of that germ don't affect its spread.

    Linked to that, saying that there is a massive unexplained factor which explains all the differences better than the standard model is possible, but needs extraordinary evidence.

    Thirdly, saying that Sweden and the UK have similar outcomes isn't that surprising. Sweden did about as much as can be done short of a lockdown, and the UK's lockdown was about as soft as can still count as a lockdown. The similarity of their outcomes shouldn't be that much of a surprise. Comparisons like Sweden-Norway are much more instructive.

    This isn't to say that Prof Friston is wrong. And modelling phenomena with not much data when you don't even know the shape of the model to use is blooming difficult. So don't smear him. But don't act as if he's definitely right either.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Of course Scotland is part of Britain. Not wanting to belong to a political organisation doesn't change the geography.
    Quite. Britain is an island, not a country. Hence why SNP wants to "break up Britain" is a daft line – as far as I know few nationalists advocate installing some sort of giant jigsaw to run through the Cheviots.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,516

    Anti-Irish sentiment is alive and kicking in today’s England. Is there any country they don’t either hate or fear or despise? San Marino?
    San Marino? Terrible Covid death toll per head of population. Even worse than the UK...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,222
    RobD said:

    You think the main reason for them supposedly "screaming their heads off" was because he was Scottish?
    Who said main?
    I think it was a factor. Unlike Blair, Brown was very identifiably Scottish, regardless of all the Gascoigne goal luvvin', Arctic Monkeys fandom pish he tried. Of course the opposite also applies, why do you think David 'English' Cameron was kept away from any real live Jocks during the indy campaign?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,651
    edited June 2020
    Carnyx said:

    That graph was pretty devastating - very clear high frequency loss.

    Plus no discussion one way or another of the onset of tinnitus, or of balance organ damage (like Meniere's), that I could see, either. Those would be real worries.
    This has sadly happened to somebody I know. Severe high frequency hearing loss in one ear. Permanent. Probable cause, a virus. Told not to rule out Covid-19 even though no other symptoms.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Far from it, the government has avoided a hard border with the Republic of Ireland while keeping Northern Ireland in the UK
    That is because they put a customs barrier down the Irish Sea, as any fule kno.

    But I was talking about being an Irish citizen and British subject. See this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/06/home-office-british-citizenship-northern-ireland--good-friday-agreement

    I believe the lady won her case though I have not kept up with what has happened as a result.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    RobD said:

    Is the statement wrong?
    It's only part of his answer. Watch the tape.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    Sandpit said:

    Except for the referendum where they decided they did want to be part of the UK, correct.
    Scotland is a completely automonous country.

    And Sweden should have exactly the same Covid death rate as the countries nearest it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    Who said main?
    I think it was a factor. Unlike Blair, Brown was very identifiably Scottish, regardless of all the Gascoigne goal luvvin', Arctic Monkeys fandom pish he tried. Of course the opposite also applies, why do you think David 'English' Cameron was kept away from any real live Jocks during the indy campaign?
    Stuart did, above!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    eristdoof said:


    Given that Britain is in Europe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe) how can someone be British and not European?
    There ius a famous headline in the Times newspaper about weather problems.

    "Fog in Channel. Continent Cut Off."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    It's only part of his answer. Watch the tape.
    Care to fill us in on what the second part was which completely changes the meaning of the first?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence, after all. I'm not qualified to do a detailed critique of an epidemiological model, but a couple of red flags flutter in front of me.

    One is that there's not much doubt that there is a germ involved in this disease, so you have to do a lot of explaining to justify the claim that extreme measures to stop the spread of that germ don't affect its spread.

    Linked to that, saying that there is a massive unexplained factor which explains all the differences better than the standard model is possible, but needs extraordinary evidence.

    Thirdly, saying that Sweden and the UK have similar outcomes isn't that surprising. Sweden did about as much as can be done short of a lockdown, and the UK's lockdown was about as soft as can still count as a lockdown. The similarity of their outcomes shouldn't be that much of a surprise. Comparisons like Sweden-Norway are much more instructive.

    This isn't to say that Prof Friston is wrong. And modelling phenomena with not much data when you don't even know the shape of the model to use is blooming difficult. So don't smear him. But don't act as if he's definitely right either.
    Of course he isn't 'definitely right'. It's well worth watching the interviewing rather than relying on short summaries.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,222
    Sandpit said:

    Except for the referendum where they decided they did want to be part of the UK, correct.
    And the one where decided they did want to be part of the EU, after the previous referendum where they were told voting a certain way would guarantee that membership.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,482

    Quite. Britain is an island, not a country. Hence why SNP wants to "break up Britain" is a daft line – as far as I know few nationalists advocate installing some sort of giant jigsaw to run through the Cheviots.
    But Britain is often used as shorthand for "the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland", and from that point of view, it makes perfect sense.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Not part of mainland continental Europe no
    Now you’re changing your story. Taking lessons from Cummings?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,485
    isam said:


    Thanks ISAM.

    However I have done that and as Rob pointed out it just posts to my profile, BUT the screen you have is slightly different. I only have a Share button. You have Home, General, Pr... (which I am guessing is Preview) and presumably a post button

    So I assume you are somewhere different to me when doing this. Where are you :)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    RobD said:

    Care to fill us in on what the second part was which completely changes the meaning of the first?
    Not really. Watch the tape and listen to his analysis. I'm not here to summarise the work of one of the UK's finest neuroscientists.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    kjh said:

    Thanks ISAM.

    However I have done that and as Rob pointed out it just posts to my profile, BUT the screen you have is slightly different. I only have a Share button. You have Home, General, Pr... (which I am guessing is Preview) and presumably a post button

    So I assume you are somewhere different to me when doing this. Where are you :)
    They are on this page - https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8761/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-a-big-challenge-for-johnson-and-his-minsters-is-that-their-rat#latest
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,675

    That's a point. Presumably the new under-assistant, deputy panjandrum won't be voting on the Scotland only matters that he's supposed to be helping to formulate?
    Would you be happier if it emerges he has spent several happy hours watching middle aged striptease artists in Edinburgh? :wink:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    kjh said:

    Thanks ISAM.

    However I have done that and as Rob pointed out it just posts to my profile, BUT the screen you have is slightly different. I only have a Share button. You have Home, General, Pr... (which I am guessing is Preview) and presumably a post button

    So I assume you are somewhere different to me when doing this. Where are you :)
    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8761/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-a-big-challenge-for-johnson-and-his-minsters-is-that-their-rat#latest
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122
    isam said:

    It's just a version of this from the 60s isn't it?

    https://exploringyourmind.com/blue-eyes-and-brown-eyes-the-jane-elliott-experiment/#:~:text=Jane Elliott's experiment,on the blue-eyed students.
    Yes, it is not a completely new idea, but I thought quite well done, in particular the details such as costumes. White people trying to fit in with black hairstyles etc.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    Not really. Watch the tape and listen to his analysis. I'm not here to summarise the work of one of the UK's finest neuroscientists.
    If it was so easy to debunk based on what he said I'm not sure why you are so hesitant to do so.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Fishing said:

    But Britain is often used as shorthand for "the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland", and from that point of view, it makes perfect sense.
    England is often used as shorthand for the UK.

    Doesn't make it right.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Would you be happier if it emerges he has spent several happy hours watching middle aged striptease artists in Edinburgh? :wink:
    I can honestly say I've never seen him around the Pubic Triangle (my reason for being there is actually the excellent 2/hand bookshops)!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122

    Not really. Watch the tape and listen to his analysis. I'm not here to summarise the work of one of the UK's finest neuroscientists.
    No doubt a clever fellow, but is a neuroscientist better at epidemiology than the next clever fellow?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    edited June 2020
    HYUFD said:
    Curtains/Skinhead is the new Leave/Remain
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited June 2020
    RobD said:

    If it was so easy to debunk based on what he said I'm not sure why you are so hesitant to do so.
    For crying out loud – watch the tape, you lazy sod.

    Intrinsic immunity is one factor. There are other factors – such as geographical and behavioural – which achieve the same effect, all of which combine to create an effective non-susceptibility of 50%.

    WATCH THE TAPE IF YOU ARE INTERESTED
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Foxy said:

    No doubt a clever fellow, but is a neuroscientist better at epidemiology than the next clever fellow?
    I don't know, why not watch the tape and make your own mind up?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Who said main?
    I think it was a factor. Unlike Blair, Brown was very identifiably Scottish, regardless of all the Gascoigne goal luvvin', Arctic Monkeys fandom pish he tried. Of course the opposite also applies, why do you think David 'English' Cameron was kept away from any real live Jocks during the indy campaign?
    Yet IIRC he would never admit to being Scottish but only British, at least in his PM years. I think only an American radio lady managed to extract that admission ever, was that not the case?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122
    HYUFD said:
    Just because Bozo doesn't care about hairstyles doesn't mean the rest of us need to avoid a trim!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,651
    isam said:

    In psychology class at college we studied Jane Elliott's "blue eyes/brown eyes" experiment - that puts the absurdities of racism across quite well, as does the song "War" by Bob Marley.
    It is absurd but it's also ingrained in people. I would say most people (to a greater or lesser extent). Certainly I tend to be dubious if somebody claims to be entirely free of it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,122

    I don't know, why not watch the tape and make your own mind up?
    because I cannot watch it in my lunchbreak in the staffroom?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,101
    HYUFD said:

    Your the supporter of the Nationalist party not me.

    Personally I also never questioned Brown's right to be PM under our parliamentary system
    Let’s be honest @HYUFD the current incarnation of the Conservative Party is simply the English National Party.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    England is often used as shorthand for the UK.

    Doesn't make it right.
    Indeed. I've stopped using Britain/British in any context at all where UK is the correct wording. Above all in politics where to use 'Britain' begs the question of whether you include the Irish and Manx bits or not.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,675

    Nonsense. The air was thick with ant-Scottish venom.
    Really? Are you sure that is not just a particular slant that you have?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,007

    Let’s be honest @HYUFD the current incarnation of the Conservative Party is simply the English National Party.

    A clear case of trolling.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Nonsense. The air was thick with ant-Scottish venom.
    Those chimaeras can be a bugger.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,170


    A clear case of trolling.
    Nonetheless true.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,222
    Carnyx said:

    Yet IIRC he would never admit to being Scottish but only British, at least in his PM years. I think only an American radio lady managed to extract that admission ever, was that not the case?
    Yep, I guess so. That made the fact that his every utterance was laden with the Fife infused, cumbersome tones of the manse even more ridiculous.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    And the one where decided they did want to be part of the EU, after the previous referendum where they were told voting a certain way would guarantee that membership.
    The one way Scotland could have guaranteed exiting the EU, would have been to have voted Yes.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,007

    Nonetheless true.

    If you say so,...….
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    kinabalu said:

    It is absurd but it's also ingrained in people. I would say most people (to a greater or lesser extent). Certainly I tend to be dubious if somebody claims to be entirely free of it.
    Definitely, yes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Foxy said:

    because I cannot watch it in my lunchbreak in the staffroom?
    You can watch it later or on your phone
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,485
    @isam and @RobD - Sorry that was so painful. Thank you chaps.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,961
    Foxy said:

    No doubt a clever fellow, but is a neuroscientist better at epidemiology than the next clever fellow?
    He is speaking as a modeller, not as a neuroscientist. And he recognises that an epidemioloist would be better than himself, in coming up with explanations. So in terms of figures, he is obviously much to be preferred to your run-of-the-mill medic without expertise in modelling, leaving other experts to coome up with the explanations.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336
    .

    For crying out loud – watch the tape, you lazy sod.

    Intrinsic immunity is one factor. There are other factors – such as geographical and behavioural – which achieve the same effect, all of which combine to create an effective non-susceptibility of 50%.

    WATCH THE TAPE IF YOU ARE INTERESTED
    What if the behavioural component was removed? Because isn't the central premise of lockdown skeptics that they want to get rid of the lockdown. Without that, there should be virtually no difference between the Nordic countries.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    A bit of Only Fools that reminds me of the different standards applied to Cummings' and Gardiner's adherence to lockdown rules


    Del
    No, no, you can't go in there.
    That's my Grandad's room!

    Albert
    Yeah but - I'm his brother!

    Del
    Yeah, that don't make no
    difference. Only me and Rodney
    are allowed in that room! That
    room is gonna remain exactly
    as he left it! That room is
    going to be a shrine dedicated
    to the memory of my Grand-
    father.

    Albert
    I understand Del!

    Del
    No, we'll just have to think
    of something else that's all.
    Listen, if I get the big
    mattress out of Rodney's room
    I can put it down. No, I'd
    never get it through the door
    would I.

    Rodney enters from the hall carrying the batteries.

    Rodney
    Oi, where'd you want these
    then?

    Del
    Oh, sling 'em in Grandad's
    room for now will you Rodney.


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,222
    Sandpit said:

    The one way Scotland could have guaranteed exiting the EU, would have been to have voted Yes.
    Uhuh. Well we've got some alternative history fluff v. the actuality. The actuality is what we have to deal with.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,713
    edited June 2020

    Really? Are you sure that is not just a particular slant that you have?
    If you look at Hansard you can find complaints by Tory MPs about how Scots run the United Kingdom.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,675

    Who said main?
    I think it was a factor. Unlike Blair, Brown was very identifiably Scottish, regardless of all the Gascoigne goal luvvin', Arctic Monkeys fandom pish he tried. Of course the opposite also applies, why do you think David 'English' Cameron was kept away from any real live Jocks during the indy campaign?

    I thought it was a mistake not using Cameron more during the campaign. For all that I was not a fan, he was a good speechmaker, and the one speech he made to an audience of corporates in Edinburgh was well done. I watched it with a Scottish colleague who afterwards said 'there, that was all he needed to say'. I also didn't see any harm in him being publicly heckled - Blair would have just gone for it and got some sympathy out of it.

    I completely disagree with you about Brown's Scottishness getting him abused. There's a huge perception gap here between slight intended and slight taken and internalised. It is very hard for an English person who hasn't spent time in Scotland to understand.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,217
    RobD said:

    .

    What if the behavioural component was removed? Because isn't the central premise of lockdown skeptics that they want to get rid of the lockdown. Without that, there should be virtually no difference between the Nordic countries.
    Norway reckon it would have made no difference if they hadn't locked down, in hindsight. If they hadn't, I wonder what people would be saying now?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,086
    NHS England numbers out - 115
    Last 7 days - 97
    Spanish Style - 24

    image
    image
    image
    image
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  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence, after all. I'm not qualified to do a detailed critique of an epidemiological model, but a couple of red flags flutter in front of me.

    One is that there's not much doubt that there is a germ involved in this disease, so you have to do a lot of explaining to justify the claim that extreme measures to stop the spread of that germ don't affect its spread.

    Linked to that, saying that there is a massive unexplained factor which explains all the differences better than the standard model is possible, but needs extraordinary evidence.

    Thirdly, saying that Sweden and the UK have similar outcomes isn't that surprising. Sweden did about as much as can be done short of a lockdown, and the UK's lockdown was about as soft as can still count as a lockdown. The similarity of their outcomes shouldn't be that much of a surprise. Comparisons like Sweden-Norway are much more instructive.

    This isn't to say that Prof Friston is wrong. And modelling phenomena with not much data when you don't even know the shape of the model to use is blooming difficult. So don't smear him. But don't act as if he's definitely right either.
    Indeed.
    It's a brand new virus. Which means that there's always things about it we don't know.
    For example, it's only recently come to light that infection out-of-doors is considerably less likely than infection inside. Very useful information, would have been great to have that sooner, but understandable that it wasn't known.

    The assumption that there's something mysterious and unknown that will automatically protect us and make this not a problem and all go away without anything being done is, though, a massive assumption to make when literally hundreds of thousands of lives in this country would be staked on that being right.

    I mean, it's not impossible, of course. I'd love for it to be the case that loads of us are automatically somehow immune. I'd love it even more if my family and all my loved ones were all in such a category.

    But, as with military planning and engineering planning - and with both skydiving and flying aircraft - just because it's possible for everything to go marvelously right does not mean you go around staking lives on that without getting the evidence for it first.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,675

    Yep, I guess so. That made the fact that his every utterance was laden with the Fife infused, cumbersome tones of the manse even more ridiculous.
    Brown's Scottishness actually worked well in terms of his personal brand I think. The son of the manse thing meant he was perceived as particularly upright, and there's also something about the perceived parsimony of Scots that went well with his 'iron chancellor' image. Sadly, the problem for Brown was that in reality he was a tax and spend Chancellor, and so didn't live up to it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:
    Rather a stupid survey question really. If people still wish to clap, they remain free to do it!It does not appeal to me but if I wanted to carry on clapping I would not be deterred by others deciding to discontinue.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,651
    Carnyx said:

    Indeed. I've stopped using Britain/British in any context at all where UK is the correct wording. Above all in politics where to use 'Britain' begs the question of whether you include the Irish and Manx bits or not.
    What alternative to 'British' do you use to describe the population of the UK?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    I don't know, why not watch the tape and make your own mind up?
    Yeah, I remember being told that about the interview with the old Swedish epidemiologist guy, and that provided zero extra light. Apart from making me feel very sorry for him.

    If you've watched it, why don't you summarise the answer to the differences between Norway and Sweden? After all, it's what economists call a "natural experiment" (like the economies of West and East Germany under different systems): cultures, economies, population distributions, genetics, healthcare all very similar, so outcomes should be broadly comparable. The tenfold difference in outcomes is very readily and obviously explicable by the difference in public health choice, so it's definitely going to be a big step to get to these intrinsic differences (whatever they are between these two Nordic peoples) explaining it all and the increased isolation from an infectious disease being of zero contribution.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,675
    kinabalu said:

    What alternative to 'British' do you use to describe the population of the UK?
    Accursed progeny of the imperial pretended state entity of Saxe Cobourg Gotha.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kinabalu said:

    What alternative to 'British' do you use to describe the population of the UK?
    UK subjects.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,785
    edited June 2020
    Did anyone see the Piers Morgan - RudyGiuliani interview?

    Moron1: Your mum's a puss
    Moron2: No, your mom's a puss
    Moron1: No, your mum's a puss
    Moron2: No, your mom!
    Moron1: YOUR MUM! And I've shagged your sister.

    I know that Moron has really stuck the boot into the government over them not coming on the show. But I can kind of see why.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,520
    edited June 2020

    OK, if it makes you feel any better I'm not really bothered to argue with the nuance of that point. It would still means that the UK's total of daily deaths was yesterday "only" nearly as high as the total that should have been recorded for the rest of Europe combined. Ahem indeed.

    What I'm not prepared to accept is that the death statistics as a whole including those on excess deaths do anything other than support the claim that the UK's response to the virus has led to outcomes worse than anywhere else in Europe.
    No -you missed it. it's not "nearly" and "nuance"; it's a steaming pile of bullshit,

    Nearly all of the 359 deaths in the number are from the previous fortnight, and the comparison is entirely spurious. The actual number of deaths from yesterday was 20, which will increase as others move through the process and we may have some idea of perhaps 90% of the total in 7 days.

    On this one Guido is correct in skewering Newsnight, whose reporting was misleading to (and perhaps beyond) the point off dishonesty. But he diidn't skewer them enough.

    They talked about "daily deaths" with the totally misrepresented numbers for their tabloid splash, then went into a spiel about how important it was to be careful.

    Just a shitty news report. I don't really know how the Newsnight Editor can sleep at night.

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  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319

    Not attending mass events for the foreseeable future. They are one of the known ways that this thing spreads bigly. Germany big initial outbreak, Carnival celebrations, 40% of people got it. The level of coronavirus in society is still high.

    If I was a Muslim that just forewent usual Eid celebrations because of the rules, I would be mighty pissed off to see this.

    Big Dom should have gone, but his trip to Durham wasn't risking loads of peoples health.
    I agree that if people are going to demonstrate they should keep distance from each other. But there's a big difference between 300 people crowding into a community centre, and drinking, eating, hugging, kissing each other on the cheek and singing together for several hours, and people gathering outside in the streets.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Uhuh. Well we've got some alternative history fluff v. the actuality. The actuality is what we have to deal with.
    Indeed. There are three professions where the road not taken is important. One is dfiscussing, for instance, the significance of the origin of the mammals. Another is history - the moment you invoke causality you open up alternative histories (e.g. the significance of Mr Lincoln's Proclamation about slavery). The third is politics.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Accursed progeny of the imperial pretended state entity of Saxe Cobourg Gotha.
    I laughed at that!
This discussion has been closed.