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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?
I’m genuinely looking forward to next year’s Holyrood election, 2011 and 2016 were really profitable elections thanks to Iain Grey’s dire ratings indicating a shellacking for Labour and in 2016 you could get 8/1 on the day of the election on the SNP not obtaining a majority, sometimes betting from distance gives a great perspective.
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No administration is immune to gravity. Particularly ones that aren’t any good at the basics like education, health, finance.
DYOR.0 -
Alastair Meeks's 10-1 tip on NOM in 2016 was a great bet.
Given things in Scotland are looking worse than the rest of the UK, I wouldn't bet on these elections. There's a decent chance they don't happen.0 -
Another tip would be to avoid any account paying 0.01%. It’s still possible to get above 1%.0
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I guess that’s one of SNPs secret weapons. Everything is relative. They can point to Westminster and say, “look, it could be worse.TGOHF666 said:No administration is immune to gravity. Particularly ones that aren’t any good at the basics like education, health, finance.
DYOR.0 -
The statistics suggest things aren't improving in Scotland as quickly as they have done south of the border.Jonathan said:
I guess that’s one of SNPs secret weapons. Everything is relative. They can point to Westminster and say, “look, it could be worse.TGOHF666 said:No administration is immune to gravity. Particularly ones that aren’t any good at the basics like education, health, finance.
DYOR.0 -
Good morning everyone. In spite of the forecast, a very pleasant morning here, although perhaps the cooler weather just hasn't got here yet.
On Mr tig86's point, I think there's a possibility of a bust-up on corona virus policy between Holyrood and London.0 -
Ironically the uselessness of the Government means that the elections (Scottish and otherwise) slated for next May could well go ahead. If the disease runs rampant through the population then it could be over (herd immunity achieved at the cost of massive loss of life) before then. But we're all guessing on this one, aren't we?tlg86 said:Alastair Meeks's 10-1 tip on NOM in 2016 was a great bet.
Given things in Scotland are looking worse than the rest of the UK, I wouldn't bet on these elections. There's a decent chance they don't happen.
The SNP high command could be caught eating roast baby sandwiches for lunch and still poll 45%. This will continue until independence.TGOHF666 said:No administration is immune to gravity. Particularly ones that aren’t any good at the basics like education, health, finance.
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Firstly this may not be a matter of uniquely bad governance: there are interesting theories as to why Scotland may be struggling to bring down R more than other parts of the UK.tlg86 said:
The statistics suggest things aren't improving in Scotland as quickly as they have done south of the border.Jonathan said:
I guess that’s one of SNPs secret weapons. Everything is relative. They can point to Westminster and say, “look, it could be worse.TGOHF666 said:No administration is immune to gravity. Particularly ones that aren’t any good at the basics like education, health, finance.
DYOR.
Secondly, being a laggard can also be weaponized politically. Indeed, it's already started. The loud noises about 'not being rushed into doing things' (by evil Tories) and 'making the decisions that are best for Scotland' (as distinct from Tory England) have commenced in recent days.1 -
On topic, what are a Scottish voter's options? Like Angela Merkel, Nicola Sturgeon is alternativeless.0
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My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.0 -
I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.0 -
Excellent point. VE Day appears to have been used to that end.AlastairMeeks said:OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.1 -
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/12593626275217858570 -
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
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I would love to know how those who thought we were doing better than Germany, South Korea, Australia came to that conclusion.AlastairMeeks said:
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OT have we done this Biden ad? I know it's kind of an open goal but his team is doing great work at setting up these contrasts. It's corny, but Americans love corny.
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/12591322653611008010 -
Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=210 -
I'm always impressed by how you are able to exclude your personal bias when betting. A difficult ability.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.2 -
Well, it's a unionist party.williamglenn said:
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?0 -
A propos nothing and certainly not the virus, the temperature anomaly for this year is currently running 2.10C above average. To put that in perspective, it 'only' needed to be 1.44C above average to break the hottest year on record (2014). It's true that we are only 1/3rd into the year and so anything can happen, but even the colder snap that we are about to experience isn't going to make a huge dent in what are eye-watering anomalies:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
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I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.1 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Observer, Italy and Spain are the relevant comparisons, to the extent there are such things.
I wonder if the focus on the start of the lockdown might have detracted attention from it being laxer than other countries', thereby making things slower to improve.1 -
On the relaxing of the lockdown, the regular GP on BBC Breakfast speaks:
- her surgery is "gradually getting a bit busier," which is a good thing of course
- "technology has advanced across the health service at a rate of knots"; talking about it having become much easier for patients to interact with the surgery electronically: "we are trying to get as much as possible now all done online," with the caveat that safeguards are in place for e.g. older people who aren't technologically adept and can still get what they need through phoning the receptionists
- she's very positive about the suggestion that limits on outdoor exercise are to be lifted - referencing the general benefits to mental and physical health, but also saying that "the message is getting out there that people who are overweight and obese do seem to be disproportionately at risk of having a bad illness" if they get Covid-19 - losing weight, unlike other risk factors like gender and ethnicity, is one thing that people can actually do something positive about, especially given that she suspects that a lot of people will have got heavier rather than lighter during the lockdown
- asked about the recent scenes of crowded urban parks, she says that the virus "does not appear to spread very well in the open air" and that "busy parks are OK" provided that people observe social distancing: "it doesn't matter how busy the park is so long as you're keeping away from other people"
- plus, getting out in the sunshine is good for stimulating vitamin D production, which may be a risk factor for this disease in terms of a lack of it compromising the immune system
- on the forthcoming change of messaging from "stay home" to "stay alert", emphasising that people should look out for a range of symptoms, such as loss of sense of taste and smell and all-over muscle aches and pains, as well as the fever and dry cough; if people do have symptoms then they should try to book a test, and isolate and keep away from other people
- on whether the change of messaging to "stay alert" is too vague, "there is always going to be a problem when we start lifting this absolute lockdown of what can people do"; the interviewer did not press this point but I take this as being an acknowledgement from the GP that the change of tone is something that would've been hard to manage whenever it came, as distinct from being something that explicitly should not be happening right now
- clarifying the messaging about masks (presumably talking here about cloth masks rather than high-spec clinical ones): main point of wearing a mask is to protect those around you, whereby if you have the virus and you cough or sneeze then it may make a tiny difference to the chance of your passing it on to someone else; they offer no additional protection to the wearer
- in terms of protecting yourself, the most important things you can do are to observe social distancing and wash your hands frequently0 -
Except people won't. If after 7 weeks we still aren't making massive inroads people won't return to total lockdown.edmundintokyo said:SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The problems are that we utterly screwed up during the first month and since then we've had big failings on contact tracing, PPE, care homes, testing and re-educating the public to wear protective face masks. The latter is important as pretty-much everywhere else in the world knows full well. My mask is excellent with replacement washable filters at FFP2 rating. The virus is extremely unlikely to penetrate it and if everyone else were wearing them I'd be rock-solid safe ...
There's something curious about all this though. We may actually come out of this better than other nations. If no vaccine or cure is found, our inept handling may mean we have far more virus circulation than other countries so that we naturally resist third, fourth, fifth waves.
I'm refusing to use the god-awful phrase 'herd immunity.'1 -
The problem is that "total lockdown" is much easier to enforce than the more nuanced measures that you'd take if you're no longer 5 cases away from frying your healthcare system. So if people are less cooperative, the government ends up having to ratchet up the compulsion.Mysticrose said:
Except people won't. If after 7 weeks we still aren't making massive inroads people won't return to total lockdown.0 -
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.0 -
I'm happier with an SNP government needing the support of the Greens than one with an overall majority.
This is the party that allowed Donald Trump to destroy natural habitat to build a golf resort, let's remember.
And what exactly is their position on the oil industry?0 -
It’s a lot less severe than other countries, actually far closer to Sweden in its effect than most people realise.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Observer, Italy and Spain are the relevant comparisons, to the extent there are such things.
I wonder if the focus on the start of the lockdown might have detracted attention from it being laxer than other countries', thereby making things slower to improve.
I went through three weeks of needing to take a police permit in advance to go to the supermarket, and six weeks of not being allowed outside to exercise at all.0 -
LOL, it could be 99% to SNP and Harry would still be saying they were doomed. Fact they are getting ever more popular kind of shows how out of touch he is.TGOHF666 said:No administration is immune to gravity. Particularly ones that aren’t any good at the basics like education, health, finance.
DYOR.0 -
If Michael Gove gives you a story you run it!squareroot2 said:SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. TAlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
he YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.
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Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.0 -
I spent last night trying to explain to Aaron Bastani and his chums that no, in fact vote share is not more important to seats when forming a Government. Of course they could not interrogate this point, so they attacked me instead.
Why is the left in such a mess? Because it's full of morons.0 -
They’re trying to stop it in the same way people like Cameron tried to stop Brexit by constantly warning that Eurosceptics would take us out of the EU.Casino_Royale said:
Well, it's a unionist party.williamglenn said:
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?0 -
What things would that be, can only assume Covid where Scotland rates are significantly lower than England. The fact that we got the infection from down south later on means the peak will be a few weeks to a months later. It is dropping here just as everywhere else.tlg86 said:
The statistics suggest things aren't improving in Scotland as quickly as they have done south of the border.Jonathan said:
I guess that’s one of SNPs secret weapons. Everything is relative. They can point to Westminster and say, “look, it could be worse.TGOHF666 said:No administration is immune to gravity. Particularly ones that aren’t any good at the basics like education, health, finance.
DYOR.0 -
OKC, It is on its way , cool here and windy.OldKingCole said:Good morning everyone. In spite of the forecast, a very pleasant morning here, although perhaps the cooler weather just hasn't got here yet.
On Mr tig86's point, I think there's a possibility of a bust-up on corona virus policy between Holyrood and London.0 -
Is this graph correcf fie the UK? We dont record total active cases do we? It seems wrong.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=210 -
An interesting piece on what might happen in the summer, if the kids have nowhere to party: back to 1988, folks!
https://capx.co/as-we-lift-the-lockdown-remember-that-fortune-favours-the-rave/0 -
I am of the opinion that with the best will in the world any UK government would have struggled with testing, PPE supply and as the lockdown was such a big judgement call, I can even understand why that was held off until after the last minute.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.
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The Tories are absolutely bereft of talent in their Northern British regional party, between them , Labour and Lib Dems you could not find ONE person that you would trust to run a bath.williamglenn said:
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/12593626275217858570 -
How do you know Gove gave it. .?SouthamObserver said:
If Michael Gove gives you a story you run it!squareroot2 said:SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. TAlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
he YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.0 -
Yep, Government can try to reimpose lockdown but it can only effectively enforce aspects like business closures that are relatively easy to control. If a sufficient percentage of the general population defies a renewed stay at home order then we're not a police state: the authorities lack the strength to impose obedience by force where consent for the regulations fails.Mysticrose said:
Except people won't. If after 7 weeks we still aren't making massive inroads people won't return to total lockdown.edmundintokyo said:SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The problems are that we utterly screwed up during the first month and since then we've had big failings on contact tracing, PPE, care homes, testing and re-educating the public to wear protective face masks. The latter is important as pretty-much everywhere else in the world knows full well.
There's something curious about all this though. We may actually come out of this better than other nations. If no vaccine or cure is found, our inept handling may mean we have far more virus circulation than other countries so that we naturally resist third, fourth, fifth waves.
I'm refusing to use the god-awful phrase 'herd immunity.'
The medics as well as the Government are still very reticent to change the messaging on masks. Is it just possible that they are right? Mask wearing is culturally prevalent in some east Asian societies that have also had relative success in containing the virus, but it doesn't necessarily follow that mask wearing is one of the reasons for that success.
The success or otherwise of the search for a vaccine or effective treatments is the biggest unknown in all of this. Obviously if it's successful in the next year or so then the disease will be squashed and the countries that have had most success in controlling it should come out of this best. But if we've still not got very far in ten years' time then those who have followed the Swedish route (whether by accident or design) may well end up suffering less in the long run, because of a more rapid return to something resembling normality.
New Zealand, for example, has done a superb job of crushing Covid-19 within its own borders; however, like a shielded person faced with being stuck in their own house indefinitely, it may not be very enthusiastic about having to cut itself off from the world for the rest of time.0 -
The mixed messaging isn’t coming from government though, it’s coming from media desperate to bounce the government into easing the restrictions (while simultaneously complaining about the number of cases being too high).Mexicanpete said:
I am of the opinion that with the best will in the world any UK government would have struggled with testing, PPE supply and as the lockdown was such a big judgement call, I can even understand why that was held off until after the last minute.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.0 -
What even is that data? I’m wary about making huge false assumptions. We are testing a factor of x10 more people now, so we’re going to find more cases. That doesn’t tell us if the number of actual cases is going down, just the number of recognised cases. We could well be on the huge downward slope.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.1 -
The entire cabinet is full of deadbeats, why is this news to anyone???Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.1 -
The lifting of the lockdown has come from somebody in Government. And the Government could have shut it down very quickly but they did not. By then the damage was already done.Sandpit said:
The mixed messaging isn’t coming from government though, it’s coming from media desperate to bounce the government into easing the restrictions (while simultaneously complaining about the number of cases being too high).Mexicanpete said:
I am of the opinion that with the best will in the world any UK government would have struggled with testing, PPE supply and as the lockdown was such a big judgement call, I can even understand why that was held off until after the last minute.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.1 -
Interesting article, but what about the headline? There remains no evidence at all of a consistent and clear majority for 'killing the Union stone dead'. It's another Brexit - no line commanding anything like a majority.
And that is without an IndyRef2 debate focusing on about 7 impossible questions: the EU's approach; the hard border at Gretna and Berwick; debt; currency; English subsidy; free movement; effect on UK trade.
In the light of all this the pragmatic Scots will continue as they have done recently: vote for the maximum autonomy consistent with the UK as a whole being responsible for the insoluble bits and as funder of last resort.2 -
So is the cold weather good or bad for R?
Depends whether the groups who were meeting for a drink in the park yesterday are staying at home or meeting at one of their houses instead.
We await Bozo's big empty speech.0 -
No that's absolutely untrue. The Gov't are themselves inherently in a muddle and have been from the start. SAGE have contradicted themselves repeatedly as have the other advisors, so it's not entirely the politicians but other ministers have repeatedly followed their own agendas and briefed against one another. The Cabinet has leaked like crazy.Sandpit said:
The mixed messaging isn’t coming from government though, it’s coming from media desperate to bounce the government into easing the restrictions (while simultaneously complaining about the number of cases being too high).Mexicanpete said:
I am of the opinion that with the best will in the world any UK government would have struggled with testing, PPE supply and as the lockdown was such a big judgement call, I can even understand why that was held off until after the last minute.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.
The reason the media have had a field day is because there's one to be had.1 -
I will certainly defend him against absolutely anything in the Dail Mail and thats just for starters. The benefit of of hindsight used to attack him is pretty unpleaseant. Its become party politicsl not based on any kind of reality. I do not think for one moment that Labour would have done any better .Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.2 -
Well, I have to ask, what did you expect? Ash Sarkar’s legendary reaction to the exit poll was, ‘the red wave is coming.’ Bastani himself said that maybe 100 seats would be decided by 2-3 figure margins so Labour were still in the game for a hung parliament (the actual figure was 10, exactly the same as the 10 that Labour clung to by similar margins). His response to Pidcock losing her seat was to blame the Greens, rather than ponder whether Pidcock had been wise to totally neglect her constituency for two years!CorrectHorseBattery said:I spent last night trying to explain to Aaron Bastani and his chums that no, in fact vote share is not more important to seats when forming a Government. Of course they could not interrogate this point, so they attacked me instead.
Why is the left in such a mess? Because it's full of morons.
It’s better not to try and work with such nuts. They don’t allow facts to influence their views.5 -
The reality is, Johnson doesn't want to be a leader in a crisis. He wants to be the leader in good times, when we're all more concerned with Love Island and going to the pub.
He was not made for this kind of thing and neither was his Government/cabinet. And it shows.1 -
The SNP asked the EC to not test the question whilst the Coronavirus Crisis is on going. Indyref2 isn't happening this year. As a result due to holyrood 2021 it can't happen until after the next election.Casino_Royale said:
Well, it's a unionist party.williamglenn said:
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?
Banging on about IndyRef right now is the most parochial of concerns.1 -
Hancock is going to have to go at some point. If only to deflect some blame from Johnson as the government's response to C19 goes full Fyre Festival.Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
That Room Next Door thing with Hancock was so brutal I almost felt sorry for him then I remembered he was a tory so fuck him.0 -
Very few people I know are laughing about this.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:1 -
You are missing a Shadow in there. I'm not sure any of that shower of deadbeats will ever get to see a Ministerial limo in their career.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The entire cabinet is full of deadbeats, why is this news to anyone???Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.1 -
Come on. You don't think any of those triumphal headlines in Thursday's papers came from 'Senior Government Sources'?Sandpit said:
The mixed messaging isn’t coming from government though, it’s coming from media desperate to bounce the government into easing the restrictions (while simultaneously complaining about the number of cases being too high).Mexicanpete said:
I am of the opinion that with the best will in the world any UK government would have struggled with testing, PPE supply and as the lockdown was such a big judgement call, I can even understand why that was held off until after the last minute.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.1 -
Yes the media are culpable, but Boris personally germinated the idea at PMQs on Wednesday. To be fair to people like Raab and Shapps they have remained bang it message, but Boris not to be outdone by the Queen decided he wanted to make his big King's speech on Sunday at 7pm. He personally had done nothing to calm the storm. Perhaps he will unlock tonight.Sandpit said:
The mixed messaging isn’t coming from government though, it’s coming from media desperate to bounce the government into easing the restrictions (while simultaneously complaining about the number of cases being too high).Mexicanpete said:
I am of the opinion that with the best will in the world any UK government would have struggled with testing, PPE supply and as the lockdown was such a big judgement call, I can even understand why that was held off until after the last minute.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.0 -
Biden seemed strangely wooden to meedmundintokyo said:OT have we done this Biden ad? I know it's kind of an open goal but his team is doing great work at setting up these contrasts. It's corny, but Americans love corny.
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/12591322653611008010 -
Deflection is not particularly encouraging in arguing against my point.MarqueeMark said:
You are missing a Shadow in there. I'm not sure any of that shower of deadbeats will ever get to see a Ministerial limo in their career.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The entire cabinet is full of deadbeats, why is this news to anyone???Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.
I happen to think the new Labour SC - with the notable exception of Thornberry and RLB - at least appears competent to me so far. They've got no actual nutters in there that I can see, unlike Raab and Patel.0 -
The Mail is joined at the hip to the Goveian wing of the Conservative party. They employ his wife. The attacks are unpleasant. And they tell us that at the moment the government is arguing with itself. The public school imagery is very revealing.squareroot2 said:
I will certainly defend him against absolutely anything in the Dail Mail and thats just for starters. The benefit of of hindsight used to attack him is pretty unpleaseant. Its become party politicsl not based on any kind of reality. I do not think for one moment that Labour would have done any better .Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisissquareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
handling.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of
deadbeats in his Cabinet.
0 -
Charles did you look at the 1959 GE QH was interviewedCharles said:
Very few people I know are laughing about this.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
I’ll cheerfully defend Matt Hancock as long as he pays me the full rate for it.Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.
Everyone deserves somebody to defend them...
Oh, sorry - were you not referring to court proceedings?1 -
1
-
Ah, the opposite approach to Laura PidcockDura_Ace said:
Hancock is going to have to go at some point. If only to deflect some blame from Johnson as the government's response to C19 goes full Fyre Festival.Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
That Room Next Door thing with Hancock was so brutal I almost felt sorry for him then I remembered he was a tory so fuck him.
0 -
To think they're only on 50% in the polls...CorrectHorseBattery said:The reality is, Johnson doesn't want to be a leader in a crisis. He wants to be the leader in good times, when we're all more concerned with Love Island and going to the pub.
He was not made for this kind of thing and neither was his Government/cabinet. And it shows.1 -
Yes and that will forever baffle me. But I accept I'm not like the majority of the country.Fishing said:
To think they're only on 50% in the polls...CorrectHorseBattery said:The reality is, Johnson doesn't want to be a leader in a crisis. He wants to be the leader in good times, when we're all more concerned with Love Island and going to the pub.
He was not made for this kind of thing and neither was his Government/cabinet. And it shows.
I hope at least most will agree that we have a competent opposition again and if they continue to be competent, they should get more support.1 -
Boris' selection criteria for Cabinet was anyone who might eclipse me doesn't make the cut. There are some magnificent Tory MPs, few made it into Boris' cabinet.MarqueeMark said:
You are missing a Shadow in there. I'm not sure any of that shower of deadbeats will ever get to see a Ministerial limo in their career.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The entire cabinet is full of deadbeats, why is this news to anyone???Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.1 -
If they could only shut up about SNP doing it when it is in fact them that are obsessed, rightly so given they know they are doomed.Casino_Royale said:
Well, it's a unionist party.williamglenn said:
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?0 -
and pollution at its lowest, who would have thought.Mysticrose said:A propos nothing and certainly not the virus, the temperature anomaly for this year is currently running 2.10C above average. To put that in perspective, it 'only' needed to be 1.44C above average to break the hottest year on record (2014). It's true that we are only 1/3rd into the year and so anything can happen, but even the colder snap that we are about to experience isn't going to make a huge dent in what are eye-watering anomalies:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html0 -
I guess huge downward slope could be either shallow and long or short and sharp?Gallowgate said:
What even is that data? I’m wary about making huge false assumptions. We are testing a factor of x10 more people now, so we’re going to find more cases. That doesn’t tell us if the number of actual cases is going down, just the number of recognised cases. We could well be on the huge downward slope.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
It looks like its shallow and long unfortunately.
Id guess the risk of the big second peak is higher in the autumn/winter than the summer.
0 -
This is not true.SouthamObserver said:
The Mail is joined at the hip to the Goveian wing of the Conservative party. They employ his wife. The attacks are unpleasant. And they tell us that at the moment the government is arguing with itself. The public school imagery is very revealing.squareroot2 said:
I will certainly defend him against absolutely anything in the Dail Mail and thats just for starters. The benefit of of hindsight used to attack him is pretty unpleaseant. Its become party politicsl not based on any kind of reality. I do not think for one moment that Labour would have done any better .Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisissquareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
handling.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of
deadbeats in his Cabinet.
For a start there's no such thing as 'the mail.' There are two distinct, warring, newspapers called The Daily Mail and The Mail on Sunday. Yes, they share a website but they have a completely different set of staff and a lot of them hate one another.
The Mail on Sunday is certainly NOT Goveian. Both it and its sister paper have considerable pro-Boris leanings. The MoS has a wide range of columnists and it might surprise you to learn that many of them are soft left-leaning.
1 -
It's almost as if, I dunno, people in lockdown don't buy paper and don't generate any news..... Can't be as simple as that, can it?Sandpit said:
The mixed messaging isn’t coming from government though, it’s coming from media desperate to bounce the government into easing the restrictions (while simultaneously complaining about the number of cases being too high).Mexicanpete said:
I am of the opinion that with the best will in the world any UK government would have struggled with testing, PPE supply and as the lockdown was such a big judgement call, I can even understand why that was held off until after the last minute.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.
1 -
Ouch! That cut straight through to the bone!ydoethur said:
I’ll cheerfully defend Matt Hancock as long as he pays me the full rate for it.Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.
Everyone deserves somebody to defend them...
Oh, sorry - were you not referring to court proceedings?0 -
It's Gove trying to force Boris to sack Hancock IMO. Either Gove wants the job or thinks Hancock is ballsing it up so badly it will cost us in 2024. Possibly both. Health secretary would be a big job for Gove and a reintroduction to a policy based brief.SouthamObserver said:
The Mail is joined at the hip to the Goveian wing of the Conservative party. They employ his wife. The attacks are unpleasant. And they tell us that at the moment the government is arguing with itself. The public school imagery is very revealing.squareroot2 said:
I will certainly defend him against absolutely anything in the Dail Mail and thats just for starters. The benefit of of hindsight used to attack him is pretty unpleaseant. Its become party politicsl not based on any kind of reality. I do not think for one moment that Labour would have done any better .Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisissquareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
handling.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of
deadbeats in his Cabinet.0 -
Well, he is the Health Sec!Mexicanpete said:
Ouch! That cut straight through to the bone!ydoethur said:
I’ll cheerfully defend Matt Hancock as long as he pays me the full rate for it.Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis handling.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.
Everyone deserves somebody to defend them...
Oh, sorry - were you not referring to court proceedings?0 -
Could you give us some examples of people who want to be leader during a crisis? It doesn't sound like the healthiest of attitudes.CorrectHorseBattery said:The reality is, Johnson doesn't want to be a leader in a crisis. He wants to be the leader in good times, when we're all more concerned with Love Island and going to the pub.
He was not made for this kind of thing and neither was his Government/cabinet. And it shows.1 -
Name one.Mysticrose said:
This is rubbish.SouthamObserver said:
The Mail is joinedsquareroot2 said:
I will certainly defend him against absolutely anything in the Dail Mail and thats just for starters.Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now.squareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisis
handling.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of
deadbeats in his Cabinet.
The benefit of of hindsight used to attack him is pretty unpleaseant. Its become party politicsl not based on any kind of reality. I do not think for one moment that Labour would have done any better .
at the hip to the Goveian wing of the Conservative party. They employ his wife. The attacks are unpleasant. And they tell us that at the moment the government is arguing with itself. The public school imagery is very revealing.
For a start there's no
such thing as 'the mail.' There are two distinct, warring, newspapers called The Daily Mail and The Mail on Sunday. Yes, they share a website but they have a completely different set of staff and a lot of them hate one another.
The Mail on Sunday is certainly NOT Goveian. Both it and its sister paper have considerable pro-Boris leanings. The MoS has a wide range of columnists and it might surprise you to learn that many of them are soft left-leaning.
The Mail is a Tory-supporting platform, it’s silly to pretend otherwise. Gove and Johnson are currently joined at the hip, united by a common bond with Dominic Cummings.
2 -
Wake up and smell the coffee!Mysticrose said:
This is not true.SouthamObserver said:
The Mail is joined at the hip to the Goveian wing of the Conservative party. They employ his wife. The attacks are unpleasant. And they tell us that at the moment the government is arguing with itself. The public school imagery is very revealing.squareroot2 said:
I will certainly defend him against absolutely anything in the Dail Mail and thats just for starters. The benefit of of hindsight used to attack him is pretty unpleaseant. Its become party politicsl not based on any kind of reality. I do not think for one moment that Labour would have done any better .Mysticrose said:
Oh come on now. You must be the last person on this island ready to defend Matt Hancock. Dreadful throughout, totally out of his depth, supercilious, vacuous, self-promoting at every opportunity, clueless on the science, sending vacillatory messages and often responsible for some of the worst failings of the crisissquareroot2 said:
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. The YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.AlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
handling.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of
deadbeats in his Cabinet.
For a start there's no such thing as 'the mail.' There are two distinct, warring, newspapers called The Daily Mail and The Mail on Sunday. Yes, they share a website but they have a completely different set of staff and a lot of them hate one another.
The Mail on Sunday is certainly NOT Goveian. Both it and its sister paper have considerable pro-Boris leanings. The MoS has a wide range of columnists and it might surprise you to learn that many of them are soft left-leaning.
After coffee is served you can read that infamous left wing rag, the Mail on Sunday.0 -
On checking, I find I was unjust to Dr Peters-Bastani.
He said it would be 70 seats decided by triple digit margins.
He was out by a factor of seven not ten.0 -
I would be happier if Scottish parties were running the country rather than us being a colony run by English parties and Tories to boot. Who runs Scotland should not be down to you in England.SandyRentool said:I'm happier with an SNP government needing the support of the Greens than one with an overall majority.
This is the party that allowed Donald Trump to destroy natural habitat to build a golf resort, let's remember.
And what exactly is their position on the oil industry?0 -
Winston Churchill.Endillion said:
Could you give us some examples of people who want to be leader during a crisis? It doesn't sound like the healthiest of attitudes.CorrectHorseBattery said:The reality is, Johnson doesn't want to be a leader in a crisis. He wants to be the leader in good times, when we're all more concerned with Love Island and going to the pub.
He was not made for this kind of thing and neither was his Government/cabinet. And it shows.3 -
Uh? Have you been at Eadric's absinthe again?MarqueeMark said:
It's almost as if, I dunno, people in lockdown don't buy paper and don't generate any news..... Can't be as simple as that, can it?Sandpit said:
The mixed messaging isn’t coming from government though, it’s coming from media desperate to bounce the government into easing the restrictions (while simultaneously complaining about the number of cases being too high).Mexicanpete said:
I am of the opinion that with the best will in the world any UK government would have struggled with testing, PPE supply and as the lockdown was such a big judgement call, I can even understand why that was held off until after the last minute.edmundintokyo said:
I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.SouthamObserver said:Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.0 -
Anyway, as Boris will effectively allow us all out to go and explore our local nature reserves as of this week, I will wind up the Moth du Jour feature that has otherwise kept you all sane and civilised. Good luck to any who have been inspired to get a moth trap and have a go themselves.
Moth du Jour: Swallow-tailed Moth Ourapteryx sambucaria
A moth of warm summer evenings, when it can appear in numbers. Beautiful when freshly emerged, they do have a tendency to get a bit tatty. So enjoy this pristine, fresh out the box example. Moth du Jour signing off....until the second wave.
4 -
Lenin. Ben-Gurion. van Gaal.Endillion said:
Could you give us some examples of people who want to be leader during a crisis? It doesn't sound like the healthiest of attitudes.CorrectHorseBattery said:The reality is, Johnson doesn't want to be a leader in a crisis. He wants to be the leader in good times, when we're all more concerned with Love Island and going to the pub.
He was not made for this kind of thing and neither was his Government/cabinet. And it shows.1 -
You also know it will be a load of shit as well though. Hancock desperately bad as he is is streets ahead of slimeball Gove.SouthamObserver said:
If Michael Gove gives you a story you run it!squareroot2 said:SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be a downward swing in approval for the government’s handling of the crisis. It’s net +12 with Opinium now, that’s way down on where it was. TAlastairMeeks said:
Interestingly, the government is still getting net positives on how it is handling the crisis when the question is asked without context.OldKingCole said:
My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.AlastairMeeks said:
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
he YouGov is from last week, so it’ll be interesting to track its evolution over time. If we’re going to get out of this with any degree of success we need confidence in the government to remain high. But the hatchet job on Hancock in today’s MoS shows the government does not even have confidence in itself. That is a worry.
No ot shows that the Mail is a shit paper writing shitty stuff.0 -
'On the political front this might be the most important election this decade, if the the SNP win a majority then it reinforces their mandate for another Scottish independence referendum and if Boris Johnson rejects this democratic mandate then I’d expect a major constitutional crisis which is always exciting and gives us plenty to bet upon.'
I won't express my personal views on this but at least you are honest I suppose.0 -
Troubled times.0
-
It is the only policy they have so it is either keep banging on about that or be the dummies they are.Alistair said:
The SNP asked the EC to not test the question whilst the Coronavirus Crisis is on going. Indyref2 isn't happening this year. As a result due to holyrood 2021 it can't happen until after the next election.Casino_Royale said:
Well, it's a unionist party.williamglenn said:
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?
Banging on about IndyRef right now is the most parochial of concerns.
SNP will need to make 2021 election all about independence for certain though.0 -
Thanks.kjh said:
I'm always impressed by how you are able to exclude your personal bias when betting. A difficult ability.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.0 -
It won't work. It's an identity question.williamglenn said:
They’re trying to stop it in the same way people like Cameron tried to stop Brexit by constantly warning that Eurosceptics would take us out of the EU.Casino_Royale said:
Well, it's a unionist party.williamglenn said:
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?
Obviously many Scots will be left entirely cold but I'd appeal to shared bonds we have as Britons across our islands and the great future we have together.
Forget the project fear stuff.0 -
Ho Chi Minh.Dura_Ace said:
Lenin. Ben-Gurion. van Gaal.Endillion said:
Could you give us some examples of people who want to be leader during a crisis? It doesn't sound like the healthiest of attitudes.CorrectHorseBattery said:The reality is, Johnson doesn't want to be a leader in a crisis. He wants to be the leader in good times, when we're all more concerned with Love Island and going to the pub.
He was not made for this kind of thing and neither was his Government/cabinet. And it shows.
Mao, perhaps, although he was more usually causing crises than trying to lead in them.0 -
She takes a very different view for Scotland in contrast to England?williamglenn said:
Well, knock me down with a feather.0 -
How would Scotland fund the £40-50bn in additional spending required to see off this virus? It's the unanswerable question.Casino_Royale said:
It won't work. It's an identity question.williamglenn said:
They’re trying to stop it in the same way people like Cameron tried to stop Brexit by constantly warning that Eurosceptics would take us out of the EU.Casino_Royale said:
Well, it's a unionist party.williamglenn said:
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?
Obviously many Scots will be left entirely cold but I'd appeal to shared bonds we have as Britons across our islands and the great future we have together.
Forget the project fear stuff.1 -
I can’t help but feel though this is politically risky.Casino_Royale said:
She takes a very different view for Scotland in contrast to England?williamglenn said:
Well, knock me down with a feather.
If England reopens earlier and seems to be doing OK despite having been harder hit than Scotland, she’s going to have a hard time explaining to the voters of Scotland that it was really important that she forced them to absorb more economic damage so that Scottish policy would not be the same as English policy.
Of course, if the opposite is true, SNP gain 75% of seats and Labour gain Horsham.0 -
There is the economic stuff, sure, but ultimately if we don't feel part of the same country the UK isn't going to stick in the long-term.MaxPB said:
How would Scotland fund the £40-50bn in additional spending required to see off this virus? It's the unanswerable question.Casino_Royale said:
It won't work. It's an identity question.williamglenn said:
They’re trying to stop it in the same way people like Cameron tried to stop Brexit by constantly warning that Eurosceptics would take us out of the EU.Casino_Royale said:
Well, it's a unionist party.williamglenn said:
The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.Casino_Royale said:I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?
Obviously many Scots will be left entirely cold but I'd appeal to shared bonds we have as Britons across our islands and the great future we have together.
Forget the project fear stuff.
I'd prefer to win or lose on those grounds.1 -
Surprising to see us rated worse than Sweden.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Thank you, it has been nice. We will certainly buy a mothtrap as soon as we can. Luxuries have to be paid for from betting winnings, and they have been scarce recently.MarqueeMark said:Anyway, as Boris will effectively allow us all out to go and explore our local nature reserves as of this week, I will wind up the Moth du Jour feature that has otherwise kept you all sane and civilised. Good luck to any who have been inspired to get a moth trap and have a go themselves.
Moth du Jour: Swallow-tailed Moth Ourapteryx sambucaria
A moth of warm summer evenings, when it can appear in numbers. Beautiful when freshly emerged, they do have a tendency to get a bit tatty. So enjoy this pristine, fresh out the box example. Moth du Jour signing off....until the second wave.1
This discussion has been closed.