Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone de

135678

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Got it!

    "We send £350 million each week to people on furlough.
    Let's give it to Virgin Atlantic instead"
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    Because on the latter they haven't got a clue?

    Actually, on the former they've demonstrated that they haven't a clue.
    They are trying to nudge people out to get the economy going, at least to some extent. How do you think they should achieve their aim?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052

    “Stay alert” is a bit fatuous. It’s hardly the biggest problem right now though.

    "Watch out" would be better I think. Or "Keep watch" or something. One syllable words are much better in slogans than two syllable ones.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The absolute inevitability of SNP most seats is what drives Tory tactics in focusing on indepdence. What is the point in spending a lot of time developing a better policy on education when there is no chance of being the government? What they are seeking to do is consolidate enough of the Unionist vote to prevent an SNP majority and thus, hopefully, prevent a second referendum (subject to the little green helpers, of course).

    Whilst I understand the logic of that it is a mistake. Scotland has not had an actual policy choice since 2007. In that 13 years we have had the truly disastrous Curriculum for Excellence imposed in our schools with the inevitable consequences in our PISA ranking, we have the insane position of still offering free University education to EU citizens at a time when funded places for Scots are being restricted, we have had the shambolic and ongoing embarrassment that is Police Scotland, we have had an ever more centralised and unaccountable concentration of power in the likes of the Care Commission, stripping local government of powers and budget, I really could go on and on. As someone actively interested in politics I genuinely don't know what the Tories or Labour are proposing in relation to these failures. It's not good enough. Scotland needs a proper choice.

    Which is part of why I back Scottish independence as the best thing for Scotland.

    It is only once the independence issue is over and done with that Scotland can get mature, grown up politics back.
    I am British. I would be stripped of my national identity if that were to happen. I will do all I can to stop it.
    Good man. I feel the same way.

    I am English but love Scotland - I lived there for six years as a child - and feel it's part of our UK.

    I would be so upset if it left. It's the emotional connections that mean so much to me.
    British identity is already dead. The country is possessed by an English nationalism that regards all other identities as invalid.
    Not amongst all of us it isn't.
    I almost feel sorry for you because you’re so oblivious. But you chose to throw yourself in with a movement that militantly rejects other views of identity, branding them traitors and quislings, and telling them just to suck it up.

    And then you wonder why the concept of an inclusive Britishness is now purely historical.
    I see your tourettes has returned.
    You think you can just divide the nation in two, impose the most extreme version of your preferred outcome riding roughshod over your opponents without wrecking any sense of common purpose? I realised that Leavers were fantasists but we’re now approaching fairytales.
    Non-sequitur of the month, ladies & gentlemen.

    It's kind of cute though. These sort of arguments almost feel nostalgic now.

    I'm off for a walk with my family. Have a great day x
  • ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21

    I think the UK and especially the US are going to be pretty fucked. They're doing the same thing Japan did in mid-March: Cases flattened off a bit, the government sends mixed messages, so people start to end their response unilaterally. Except whereas Japan was doing this from a base of 1000 cases, the UK is doing it from 200,000 cases, and the US 1.2 million.

    You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
    I am of the opinion that with the best will in the world any UK government would have struggled with testing, PPE supply and as the lockdown was such a big judgement call, I can even understand why that was held off until after the last minute.

    The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.
    The mixed messaging isn’t coming from government though, it’s coming from media desperate to bounce the government into easing the restrictions (while simultaneously complaining about the number of cases being too high).
    Do you think there is clear message coming from this government? It seems to me to be more like an uncoordinated rabble. This is not surprising, since the Conservative Party nowadays is an unholy alliance of conflicting interests.
    Anyone who doesn't understand the messages from the Government is as dim as Beth Rigby
    People understood the government's messages in Thursday's papers.

    That's why they spent the next two days relaxing in the park.
    The messages in the papers?

    I rest my case
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    I think you will find it is the media who are obsessed by it.
    Because the public need educating and a slogan is a good way to do it.
    For all the claims by the media that everything is totally confusing from the start if this, it doesn't seem like the public are at all. People sticking to the rules has been very high & it is pretty clear that when people do claim but but but the rules weren't clear, they weren't engaged in doing something that is debatable, it is normally they have gone on some crazy road trip that normally they would never do.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The absolute inevitability of SNP most seats is what drives Tory tactics in focusing on indepdence. What is the point in spending a lot of time developing a better policy on education when there is no chance of being the government? What they are seeking to do is consolidate enough of the Unionist vote to prevent an SNP majority and thus, hopefully, prevent a second referendum (subject to the little green helpers, of course).

    Whilst I understand the logic of that it is a mistake. Scotland has not had an actual policy choice since 2007. In that 13 years we have had the truly disastrous Curriculum for Excellence imposed in our schools with the inevitable consequences in our PISA ranking, we have the insane position of still offering free University education to EU citizens at a time when funded places for Scots are being restricted, we have had the shambolic and ongoing embarrassment that is Police Scotland, we have had an ever more centralised and unaccountable concentration of power in the likes of the Care Commission, stripping local government of powers and budget, I really could go on and on. As someone actively interested in politics I genuinely don't know what the Tories or Labour are proposing in relation to these failures. It's not good enough. Scotland needs a proper choice.

    Which is part of why I back Scottish independence as the best thing for Scotland.

    It is only once the independence issue is over and done with that Scotland can get mature, grown up politics back.
    I am British. I would be stripped of my national identity if that were to happen. I will do all I can to stop it.
    Good man. I feel the same way.

    I am English but love Scotland - I lived there for six years as a child - and feel it's part of our UK.

    I would be so upset if it left. It's the emotional connections that mean so much to me.
    British identity is already dead. The country is possessed by an English nationalism that regards all other identities as invalid.
    Not amongst all of us it isn't.
    I almost feel sorry for you because you’re so oblivious. But you chose to throw yourself in with a movement that militantly rejects other views of identity, branding them traitors and quislings, and telling them just to suck it up.

    And then you wonder why the concept of an inclusive Britishness is now purely historical.
    I see your tourettes has returned.
    You think you can just divide the nation in two, impose the most extreme version of your preferred outcome riding roughshod over your opponents without wrecking any sense of common purpose? I realised that Leavers were fantasists but we’re now approaching fairytales.
    Non-sequitur of the month, ladies & gentlemen.

    It's kind of cute though. These sort of arguments almost feel nostalgic now.

    I'm off for a walk with my family. Have a great day x
    You think your aggressive support of a highly divisive campaign that gets steadily more extreme has no connection with a common sense of identity?

    For their next trick, Leavers will repeal the law of gravity.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    https://twitter.com/pauljholden/status/1259413078246068224

    BoZo needs to rewrite his speech to explain why the slogan in England is different from Scotland and Wales, and why it doesn't mean what everyone thinks it means...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    DavidL said:

    Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21

    Is this graph correcf fie the UK? We dont record total active cases do we? It seems wrong.
    I'm not sure on the accuracy of that chart (the UK seems to have come down faster than that) but that looks rather like the UK has "flattened the curve". The flatten the curve graphs shared massively before lockdown had the no flattening one being steeply up then steeply down while the flattened curve one was up but to a lower peak then coming down much slower and with a longer tail than without flattening.
    The UK is almost unique in failing to record the number of recovered so any chart of active cases can only go down if people die. Its absurd and I don't understand why we do not record this information which is surely essential if we need to know how close to herd immunity we are getting.
    Presumably because we don't have the foggiest how many have recovered as they'll be recovering at home and not reporting that?

    If we need to know how close to herd immunity we are we need to know how many people have actually had it - not how many of those who've said they had it since say they don't anymore.
    Unless there is a colossal iceberg effect we're nowhere near herd immunity. About 6 out of 500ish of my friends and colleagues I know have had it, which would equate to around a half million cases. The true number is probably higher, but even if it is 4 or 5 million then you've got 60+ million with no immunity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    I think you will find it is the media who are obsessed by it.
    Because the public need educating and a slogan is a good way to do it.
    The new slogan is dire though. What does it even mean.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    Because on the latter they haven't got a clue?

    Actually, on the former they've demonstrated that they haven't a clue.
    They are trying to nudge people out to get the economy going, at least to some extent. How do you think they should achieve their aim?
    By getting the daily infection rate below 1,000 so that track and trace can work effectively. By making face coverings compulsory on public transport and public indoor venues. By giving a consistent and coherent message. By collaborating with the devolved administrations. By not being shite.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I remember the media wanking themselves cross eyed over take back control and get brexit done slogans being unclear, untrue, stupid, etc.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/pauljholden/status/1259413078246068224

    BoZo needs to rewrite his speech to explain why the slogan in England is different from Scotland and Wales, and why it doesn't mean what everyone thinks it means...

    Scotland is being decisive while England is faffing around it's plausible we end up with Scotland in a green zone and England in a yellow zone, with a defacto land border between them.

    I'm not really sure what this does to the cause of independence.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    I think the media are the obsessing
    Yeah this is all rather wearisome.

    We obviously can't stay at home for the rest of our lives so getting people moving again, whilst being vigilant, is important.

    A lot of people can be slightly daft (god I had to edit that) so a slogan is a way of drilling something home. Stay Alert is fine. It's probably better than 'Be Vigilant' and yes there are a host of other variants.

    But if this starts to propel people out of their agoraphobic mysophobic lockdown mindset then that's all-to-the-good.

    Britain has to get moving again, for our mental, physical, domestic, social and economic wellbeing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Fishing said:

    “Stay alert” is a bit fatuous. It’s hardly the biggest problem right now though.

    "Watch out" would be better I think. Or "Keep watch" or something. One syllable words are much better in slogans than two syllable ones.
    "Careful now"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    The new government slogan they deserve...

    https://twitter.com/Banxcartoons/status/1259415983195906051
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Stay home was fine. Everyone knows there are reasonable exceptions, why change it ?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I remember the media wanking themselves cross eyed over take back control and get brexit done slogans being unclear, untrue, stupid, etc.

    Quite!

    Stay Alert is fine. Does the job.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/pauljholden/status/1259413078246068224

    BoZo needs to rewrite his speech to explain why the slogan in England is different from Scotland and Wales, and why it doesn't mean what everyone thinks it means...

    Scotland is being decisive while England is faffing around it's plausible we end up with Scotland in a green zone and England in a yellow zone, with a defacto land border between them.

    I'm not really sure what this does to the cause of independence.
    Something like that might even convert @TGOHF to Yes.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited May 2020

    Relaxing the lockdown isn’t exactly the public’s current priority:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1259391373293297665?s=21

    Yeah, but this polling is kinda bollocks.

    People all over the place are 'relaxing the lockdown'.

    They're just scared of others doing it (not them).
    Most people think of loosening the lockdown in terms of pubs and cinemas re-opening, people going to football, going on holiday and stuff like that.

    I don't think they mean going out more for a walk or a bike ride which is mainly what "relaxing the lockdown" boils down to at the moment.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    I think you will find it is the media who are obsessed by it.
    Because the public need educating and a slogan is a good way to do it.
    The new slogan is dire though. What does it even mean.
    It means to me:

    1. I watch my personal hygiene. Wash my hands, use sanitiser, wipe down surfaces.
    2. I maintain my social distancing esp indoors as far as possible
    3. I wear my face mask esp on public transport and indoors

    It's really not complicated.

    I think we've all been stuck inside too long ...!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I can't quite get my head around us leaving the EU would be a disaster - but for Scotland leaving the UK it would lead to nirvana.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Fishing said:

    “Stay alert” is a bit fatuous. It’s hardly the biggest problem right now though.

    "Watch out" would be better I think. .
    Watch Out, There's a Thief About.

    Been done, I'm afraid.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.
    Very few people I know are laughing about this.
    Charles did you look at the 1959 GE QH was interviewed
    I didn’t - was that posted up thread?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited May 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    I think you will find it is the media who are obsessed by it.
    Because the public need educating and a slogan is a good way to do it.
    The new slogan is dire though. What does it even mean.
    It means to me:

    1. I watch my personal hygiene. Wash my hands, use sanitiser, wipe down surfaces.
    2. I maintain my social distancing esp indoors as far as possible
    3. I wear my face mask esp on public transport and indoors

    It's really not complicated.

    I think we've all been stuck inside too long ...!
    Noone*s been "stuck inside". There's not even a limit on daily exercise here, one of my friends did 126 kilometres yesterday - completely within the UK current guidance !

    * Except the 'shielded', and good reason for that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    edited May 2020

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The absolute inevitability of SNP most seats is what drives Tory tactics in focusing on indepdence. What is the point in spending a lot of time developing a better policy on education when there is no chance of being the government? What they are seeking to do is consolidate enough of the Unionist vote to prevent an SNP majority and thus, hopefully, prevent a second referendum (subject to the little green helpers, of course).

    Whilst I understand the logic of that it is a mistake. Scotland has not had an actual policy choice since 2007. In that 13 years we have had the truly disastrous Curriculum for Excellence imposed in our schools with the inevitable consequences in our PISA ranking, we have the insane position of still offering free University education to EU citizens at a time when funded places for Scots are being restricted, we have had the shambolic and ongoing embarrassment that is Police Scotland, we have had an ever more centralised and unaccountable concentration of power in the likes of the Care Commission, stripping local government of powers and budget, I really could go on and on. As someone actively interested in politics I genuinely don't know what the Tories or Labour are proposing in relation to these failures. It's not good enough. Scotland needs a proper choice.

    Which is part of why I back Scottish independence as the best thing for Scotland.

    It is only once the independence issue is over and done with that Scotland can get mature, grown up politics back.
    I am British. I would be stripped of my national identity if that were to happen. I will do all I can to stop it.
    Good man. I feel the same way.

    I am English but love Scotland - I lived there for six years as a child - and feel it's part of our UK.

    I would be so upset if it left. It's the emotional connections that mean so much to me.
    British identity is already dead. The country is possessed by an English nationalism that regards all other identities as invalid.
    Not amongst all of us it isn't.
    I almost feel sorry for you because you’re so oblivious. But you chose to throw yourself in with a movement that militantly rejects other views of identity, branding them traitors and quislings, and telling them just to suck it up.

    And then you wonder why the concept of an inclusive Britishness is now purely historical.
    You're a lot more persuasive when you dont act like this you know. Extremely persuasive in fact, it can be hard to disagree even when people would like to, which always makes me wonder why you deliberately act unpersuasively at other times. Why would someone choose to communicate in an ineffective way when they are able to be so much more effective? I can only assume it's for the fun of it.
    The nut nuts who backed and back Brexit - who regard the only true Brexit as the one that causes the most damage, that have no interest in addressing any of the concerns of their opponents and indeed see their alienation as a vindication - are not people who I would be interested in persuading, nor would it be a profitable use of my time to try.

    I note that all you can do is bleat that you don’t like my tone. Try explaining how you think I’m wrong rather than mewling like a scalded cat.
    I really dont see what you get out being so unpleasant and justifying it with your opponents being worse is all.

    And I did respond to your point about identity, by saying it wasnt dead but may indeed not be widespread enough or strong enough to save the UK union. You've either not read it or chosen to ignore it because you think any comment must be in full opposition.

    You seem to view any critique as being motivated by personal opposition to be responded to viciously. You remind me of a Brexiteer.

    Since I wasnt even seeking to oppose your view but instead modulate it - that is, the identity is not dead, but may be too weak - your insult is even more petty. Does that make you feel like a big man?

    Your comment has thoroughly depressed me. You falsely claim I hadn't responded about the point when I had, then spit out an insult based on that falsehood. I've certainly enjoyed spats with you on occasion, and lost my temper on occasion as well, but to get so mad because I objected to your tone? Christ. What are you getting out of getting mad at an objection to your tone?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Pulpstar said:

    Stay home was fine. Everyone knows there are reasonable exceptions, why change it ?

    Because you can't stay at home for the rest of your life.

    For chrissake ...!!!!!!

    Jeez.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    Stay Alert!

    Clipe on your neighbours if they break lockdown...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    I think you will find it is the media who are obsessed by it.
    Because the public need educating and a slogan is a good way to do it.
    The new slogan is dire though. What does it even mean.
    It means to me:

    1. I watch my personal hygiene. Wash my hands, use sanitiser, wipe down surfaces.
    2. I maintain my social distancing esp indoors as far as possible
    3. I wear my face mask esp on public transport and indoors

    It's really not complicated.

    I think we've all been stuck inside too long ...!
    Here is the challenge. Think of a slogan applicable to multiple situations, people and activities. Shopping, travel, work.

    Take personal responsibility for your safety. Stay alert is not a disaster.

    Any slogan will fail in some areas. To not understand what it means reflects badly on the few who folliw the nit picking that any government slogan would attact right now
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    Seriously, it's not just the Government that have come out of this crisis badly, I think a lot of people have their thumbs up bums and their minds in neutral.

    We have to take personal responsibility, to get out but stay alert.

    Jeesuzbloodychrist ... it's not something to be having this echo chamber argument about. We need to kick our bloody butts back into life and re-start the economy.

    We're the nation who cracked it at Dunkirk and returned 4 years later to fight the enemy back. We can do this. Have some spunk, folks.

    G'day. xx
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Pulpstar said:

    Stay home was fine. Everyone knows there are reasonable exceptions, why change it ?

    Because you can't stay at home for the rest of your life.

    For chrissake ...!!!!!!

    Jeez.
    Are self contained holiday lets going to be opened, are we going to be able to visit friends and family again ?
    What specific changes are coming today ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Stocky said:

    Relaxing the lockdown isn’t exactly the public’s current priority:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1259391373293297665?s=21

    A key passage from that article:

    "Half of those in work are content to be stuck indoors indefinitely if their company still pays them or they get 80 per cent of their salary under the government’s furlough scheme."

    Our populist government is in a trap of it`s own devising. It wants to ease drawdown with public support - but support for easing lockdown will not happen while people are paid to stay at home.
    Indeed. I was shocked to learn that most people are happy to stay as they are so long as the money keeps rolling in.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    While there is this media bubble obsession with a few words, far bigger issues with app problems, how is this isolation of new arrivals actually going to work, etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    Scott_xP said:
    Thsts very poor behaviour if true, and inexplicable. What harm would occur by telling them first (at worst leaks from those who dont like it)?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    kle4 said:

    Thsts very poor behaviour if true, and inexplicable. What harm would occur by telling them first (at worst leaks from those who dont like it)?

    They might have persuaded him that it was a terrible slogan and a stupid idea to publish it.

    But BoZo and Dom being overruled by cabinet would have set a very dangerous precedent.

    Better not to run that risk...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Alastair Meeks's 10-1 tip on NOM in 2016 was a great bet.

    Given things in Scotland are looking worse than the rest of the UK, I wouldn't bet on these elections. There's a decent chance they don't happen.

    On what measure worse?
    Sky show a chart of hospital admissions (I think) as a percentage of the peak and Scotland is still quite high compared with England.

    Presumably this is why Sturgeon is worried.

    The question that no one is asking is, what’s the plan? That Sun poll has a quarter of people wanting lockdown to continue until the virus is eradicated.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    The absolute inevitability of SNP most seats is what drives Tory tactics in focusing on indepdence. What is the point in spending a lot of time developing a better policy on education when there is no chance of being the government? What they are seeking to do is consolidate enough of the Unionist vote to prevent an SNP majority and thus, hopefully, prevent a second referendum (subject to the little green helpers, of course).

    Whilst I understand the logic of that it is a mistake. Scotland has not had an actual policy choice since 2007. In that 13 years we have had the truly disastrous Curriculum for Excellence imposed in our schools with the inevitable consequences in our PISA ranking, we have the insane position of still offering free University education to EU citizens at a time when funded places for Scots are being restricted, we have had the shambolic and ongoing embarrassment that is Police Scotland, we have had an ever more centralised and unaccountable concentration of power in the likes of the Care Commission, stripping local government of powers and budget, I really could go on and on. As someone actively interested in politics I genuinely don't know what the Tories or Labour are proposing in relation to these failures. It's not good enough. Scotland needs a proper choice.

    Which is part of why I back Scottish independence as the best thing for Scotland.

    It is only once the independence issue is over and done with that Scotland can get mature, grown up politics back.
    If you say so, but I'm pretty sure Brexit has shown there would be a sharp decrease in grown up politics for a significant period, on all sides, post any vote and pre enactment of that vote. If it's what people want it must happen but it will be even more emotional and complicated and anyone suggesting it will be easy - that in this one instance such a process would be easy - is talking nonsense.
    I don't think it will be easy by any means. Buy 10 plus years later I think it will be past the worst of the disruption and looking forwards. Same as Brexit.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    tlg86 said:

    Stocky said:

    Relaxing the lockdown isn’t exactly the public’s current priority:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1259391373293297665?s=21

    A key passage from that article:

    "Half of those in work are content to be stuck indoors indefinitely if their company still pays them or they get 80 per cent of their salary under the government’s furlough scheme."

    Our populist government is in a trap of it`s own devising. It wants to ease drawdown with public support - but support for easing lockdown will not happen while people are paid to stay at home.
    Indeed. I was shocked to learn that most people are happy to stay as they are so long as the money keeps rolling in.
    Yes, who would have thought it!
  • Alastair advocates bringing in the previous five Prime Ministers.

    Scott P says Jeremy Hunt should take over.

    The common denominator is that all six of them are avid Remainers, and that is the whole crux of the matter. The MSM see this as their last chance to bring down this Government and derail Brexit. That is their true agenda, same for Alastair and Scott P
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    Anyway, as Boris will effectively allow us all out to go and explore our local nature reserves as of this week, I will wind up the Moth du Jour feature that has otherwise kept you all sane and civilised. Good luck to any who have been inspired to get a moth trap and have a go themselves.

    Moth du Jour: Swallow-tailed Moth Ourapteryx sambucaria

    A moth of warm summer evenings, when it can appear in numbers. Beautiful when freshly emerged, they do have a tendency to get a bit tatty. So enjoy this pristine, fresh out the box example. Moth du Jour signing off....until the second wave.




    Mark, many thanks for your series, been fascinating for me at least. I look forward to the next series. o:)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    I think you will find it is the media who are obsessed by it.
    Because the public need educating and a slogan is a good way to do it.
    The new slogan is dire though. What does it even mean.
    It means to me:

    1. I watch my personal hygiene. Wash my hands, use sanitiser, wipe down surfaces.
    2. I maintain my social distancing esp indoors as far as possible
    3. I wear my face mask esp on public transport and indoors

    It's really not complicated.

    I think we've all been stuck inside too long ...!
    Here is the challenge. Think of a slogan applicable to multiple situations, people and activities. Shopping, travel, work.

    Take personal responsibility for your safety. Stay alert is not a disaster.

    Any slogan will fail in some areas. To not understand what it means reflects badly on the few who folliw the nit picking that any government slogan would attact right now
    Are you Isaac Levido's mum? Shadsy should open a market on there being a different slogan unveiled tonight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited May 2020
    Disagree with this thread header.

    First Nationalists already have a majority at Holyrood via the SNP and Greens so will be on the defensive while Unionists will be on the attack and while the SNP will almost certainly be largest party it only takes the loss of a few SNP or Green seats to Unionist parties for Sturgeon to face a May 2017 style disaster and lose her majority and the majority for independence at Holyrood as May lost the majority for Brexit at Westminster.

    Second the Scottish Conservatives only got 22% at Holyrood in 2016 on the constituency and list vote, so if they are now polling 23 to 26% Jackson Carlaw might even win more MSPs than Ruth Davidson got in 2016.

    Third, Boris won in 2019 on a manifesto of refusing any further independence referendum if the Tories won a majority, correctly as No won in 2014 the 'once in a generation referendum' as Salmond called it. Sturgeon in turn has refused to call any indyref without Westminster consent and risk a Madrid Catalonia style standoff, much to the anger of militant Nats already angry at Salmond's treatment, hence mutterings of a breakaway Nat party next year and Joanna Cherry's comments
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21

    Is this graph correcf fie the UK? We dont record total active cases do we? It seems wrong.
    I'm not sure on the accuracy of that chart (the UK seems to have come down faster than that) but that looks rather like the UK has "flattened the curve". The flatten the curve graphs shared massively before lockdown had the no flattening one being steeply up then steeply down while the flattened curve one was up but to a lower peak then coming down much slower and with a longer tail than without flattening.
    The UK is almost unique in failing to record the number of recovered so any chart of active cases can only go down if people die. Its absurd and I don't understand why we do not record this information which is surely essential if we need to know how close to herd immunity we are getting.
    Presumably because we don't have the foggiest how many have recovered as they'll be recovering at home and not reporting that?

    If we need to know how close to herd immunity we are we need to know how many people have actually had it - not how many of those who've said they had it since say they don't anymore.
    Unless there is a colossal iceberg effect we're nowhere near herd immunity. About 6 out of 500ish of my friends and colleagues I know have had it, which would equate to around a half million cases. The true number is probably higher, but even if it is 4 or 5 million then you've got 60+ million with no immunity.
    Herd immunity doesn't require 100% nor is it 'all or nothing', if even 5 million have it then we are approaching 10% with immunity and that would have a meaningful impact on reducing R.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    On herd immunity:

    " One experienced modeller tells us that “my own modelling suggests that somewhere between 10 per cent and 30 per cent would suffice, depending on what assumptions one makes.” "

    (Telegraph)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Alastair advocates bringing in the previous five Prime Ministers.

    Scott P says Jeremy Hunt should take over.

    The common denominator is that all six of them are avid Remainers, and that is the whole crux of the matter. The MSM see this as their last chance to bring down this Government and derail Brexit. That is their true agenda, same for Alastair and Scott P

    Jeremy Hunt isn't an avid remainer. Crackers take.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    MaxPB said:

    I backed the SNP heavily to win a majority over a week ago on the basis of a very similar personal analysis.

    I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.

    The Scottish Tories seem obsessed with independence.

    https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
    Well, it's a unionist party.

    Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?
    They’re trying to stop it in the same way people like Cameron tried to stop Brexit by constantly warning that Eurosceptics would take us out of the EU.
    It won't work. It's an identity question.

    Obviously many Scots will be left entirely cold but I'd appeal to shared bonds we have as Britons across our islands and the great future we have together.

    Forget the project fear stuff.
    How would Scotland fund the £40-50bn in additional spending required to see off this virus? It's the unanswerable question.
    The same way as the UK and every other country fund it. You think we will not pay dearly for it , for sure we will get handed a bigger share of the payments than we warrant population wise , as ever. They have to keep up the "big deficit" fable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    Thsts very poor behaviour if true, and inexplicable. What harm would occur by telling them first (at worst leaks from those who dont like it)?

    They might have persuaded him that it was a terrible slogan and a stupid idea to publish it.

    But BoZo and Dom being overruled by cabinet would have set a very dangerous precedent.

    Better not to run that risk...
    I hope that's not the case, but there's not much defence for simply bypassing the Cabinet. As noted during the Raab pseudo-premiership we have Cabinet government even if in reality the Prime Minister is treated more like a president at times, but even if we had a president they shouldn't do things without at least mentioning it to their subordinates.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Alastair advocates bringing in the previous five Prime Ministers.

    Scott P says Jeremy Hunt should take over.

    The common denominator is that all six of them are avid Remainers, and that is the whole crux of the matter. The MSM see this as their last chance to bring down this Government and derail Brexit. That is their true agenda, same for Alastair and Scott P

    Er. No.

    I’d quite like not to die and all available evidence shows that the current government is simply not doing the job of keeping me from not dying very well.

    It takes a special kind of Leaver to prioritise Brexit in the midst of a pandemic. Regrettably, we seem to be run by them too.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Government critics two weeks ago:

    "Stop treating us like children!"

    Government critics today:

    "We don't know what the word "alert" means!"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    She takes a very different view for Scotland in contrast to England?

    Well, knock me down with a feather.
    That new message is absolute puerile crap, typical PR buzzwords that have no significance to the task at hand and change background to green from red so that everything seems rosy in the garden. Pathetic powderpuff PR for morons.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    The absolute inevitability of SNP most seats is what drives Tory tactics in focusing on indepdence. What is the point in spending a lot of time developing a better policy on education when there is no chance of being the government? What they are seeking to do is consolidate enough of the Unionist vote to prevent an SNP majority and thus, hopefully, prevent a second referendum (subject to the little green helpers, of course).

    Whilst I understand the logic of that it is a mistake. Scotland has not had an actual policy choice since 2007. In that 13 years we have had the truly disastrous Curriculum for Excellence imposed in our schools with the inevitable consequences in our PISA ranking, we have the insane position of still offering free University education to EU citizens at a time when funded places for Scots are being restricted, we have had the shambolic and ongoing embarrassment that is Police Scotland, we have had an ever more centralised and unaccountable concentration of power in the likes of the Care Commission, stripping local government of powers and budget, I really could go on and on. As someone actively interested in politics I genuinely don't know what the Tories or Labour are proposing in relation to these failures. It's not good enough. Scotland needs a proper choice.

    Which is part of why I back Scottish independence as the best thing for Scotland.

    It is only once the independence issue is over and done with that Scotland can get mature, grown up politics back.
    If you say so, but I'm pretty sure Brexit has shown there would be a sharp decrease in grown up politics for a significant period, on all sides, post any vote and pre enactment of that vote. If it's what people want it must happen but it will be even more emotional and complicated and anyone suggesting it will be easy - that in this one instance such a process would be easy - is talking nonsense.
    I don't think it will be easy by any means. Buy 10 plus years later I think it will be past the worst of the disruption and looking forwards. Same as Brexit.
    Oh I think you have always been pretty clear that such things will not be simple. But in euphoria at winning the day scottish exceptionalism might suggest simple answers to complex questions, as did many Brexit supporters (and even when I supported it it was clear it would be difficult).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    Fishing said:

    “Stay alert” is a bit fatuous. It’s hardly the biggest problem right now though.

    "Watch out" would be better I think. Or "Keep watch" or something. One syllable words are much better in slogans than two syllable ones.
    "Careful now"
    'Mind how you go' has the retro appeal which is now de rigeur.

    Perhaps we could have a few of these patrolling parks with that phrase on repeat in the voice of Dixon of Dock Green.

    https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1258797162684653568?s=20
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21

    Is this graph correcf fie the UK? We dont record total active cases do we? It seems wrong.
    I'm not sure on the accuracy of that chart (the UK seems to have come down faster than that) but that looks rather like the UK has "flattened the curve". The flatten the curve graphs shared massively before lockdown had the no flattening one being steeply up then steeply down while the flattened curve one was up but to a lower peak then coming down much slower and with a longer tail than without flattening.
    The UK is almost unique in failing to record the number of recovered so any chart of active cases can only go down if people die. Its absurd and I don't understand why we do not record this information which is surely essential if we need to know how close to herd immunity we are getting.
    Presumably because we don't have the foggiest how many have recovered as they'll be recovering at home and not reporting that?

    If we need to know how close to herd immunity we are we need to know how many people have actually had it - not how many of those who've said they had it since say they don't anymore.
    Unless there is a colossal iceberg effect we're nowhere near herd immunity. About 6 out of 500ish of my friends and colleagues I know have had it, which would equate to around a half million cases. The true number is probably higher, but even if it is 4 or 5 million then you've got 60+ million with no immunity.
    Herd immunity doesn't require 100% nor is it 'all or nothing', if even 5 million have it then we are approaching 10% with immunity and that would have a meaningful impact on reducing R.
    10% with immunity doesn't have much effect ont he transmission rate of the virus.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21

    Is this graph correcf fie the UK? We dont record total active cases do we? It seems wrong.
    I'm not sure on the accuracy of that chart (the UK seems to have come down faster than that) but that looks rather like the UK has "flattened the curve". The flatten the curve graphs shared massively before lockdown had the no flattening one being steeply up then steeply down while the flattened curve one was up but to a lower peak then coming down much slower and with a longer tail than without flattening.
    The UK is almost unique in failing to record the number of recovered so any chart of active cases can only go down if people die. Its absurd and I don't understand why we do not record this information which is surely essential if we need to know how close to herd immunity we are getting.
    Presumably because we don't have the foggiest how many have recovered as they'll be recovering at home and not reporting that?

    If we need to know how close to herd immunity we are we need to know how many people have actually had it - not how many of those who've said they had it since say they don't anymore.
    Unless there is a colossal iceberg effect we're nowhere near herd immunity. About 6 out of 500ish of my friends and colleagues I know have had it, which would equate to around a half million cases. The true number is probably higher, but even if it is 4 or 5 million then you've got 60+ million with no immunity.
    Herd immunity doesn't require 100% nor is it 'all or nothing', if even 5 million have it then we are approaching 10% with immunity and that would have a meaningful impact on reducing R.
    I think there's also an argument that 10% might make a bigger impact than you'd guess from just the statistics, because they'll disproportionately be people in situations where it's easy for them to get, and therefore also easy for them to spread, the rona. (Bus drivers or whatever.)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Alastair advocates bringing in the previous five Prime Ministers.

    Scott P says Jeremy Hunt should take over.

    The common denominator is that all six of them are avid Remainers, and that is the whole crux of the matter. The MSM see this as their last chance to bring down this Government and derail Brexit. That is their true agenda, same for Alastair and Scott P

    Jeremy Hunt isn't an avid remainer. Crackers take.
    The same Jeremy Hunt that voted Remainer but had a change of heart for the Tory leadership campaign?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    Alastair advocates bringing in the previous five Prime Ministers.

    Scott P says Jeremy Hunt should take over.

    The common denominator is that all six of them are avid Remainers, and that is the whole crux of the matter. The MSM see this as their last chance to bring down this Government and derail Brexit. That is their true agenda, same for Alastair and Scott P

    Who are the MSM? The Telegraph, The Sun, The Express?
    Are you a Trump supporter?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    I remember the media wanking themselves cross eyed over take back control and get brexit done slogans being unclear, untrue, stupid, etc.

    Quite!

    Stay Alert is fine. Does the job.
    Stay alert is excellent advice for my daily walk to the fish and chip shop as pedestrians are in constant danger from the growing army of electric scooters; sod all help with the virus though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    While there is this media bubble obsession with a few words, far bigger issues with app problems, how is this isolation of new arrivals actually going to work, etc.

    The app and new arrival isolation issues will run for some time, I should think. Like how care homes was an issue for some time before it got attention, I think they will get more. As an immediate thing, however, a slogan is easy to criticise and take up a day of a media cycle without preventing a lot of attention on those bigger issues later.

    The opposition have seemingly worked the same way, in not going in too hard on complex issues too soon, but waiting for the moment. Probably more effective.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Alastair advocates bringing in the previous five Prime Ministers.

    Scott P says Jeremy Hunt should take over.

    The common denominator is that all six of them are avid Remainers, and that is the whole crux of the matter. The MSM see this as their last chance to bring down this Government and derail Brexit. That is their true agenda, same for Alastair and Scott P

    Brexit has happened so how can it be derailed?

    If there is a Brexit dimension to this (and I'm not certain there is) then it must surely be that the Brexiteers who are now running the country are beginning to look highly incompetent. Sooner or later people might start asking themselves, "hang on a minute, aren't these the guys who told us Brexit was going to be a roaring success?"
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    I remember the media wanking themselves cross eyed over take back control and get brexit done slogans being unclear, untrue, stupid, etc.

    Quite!

    Stay Alert is fine. Does the job.
    Stay alert is excellent advice for my daily walk to the fish and chip shop as pedestrians are in constant danger from the growing army of electric scooters; sod all help with the virus though.
    Our fish and chip shop is often staffed by a young woman with a penchant for wearing low cut tops. They haven`t fallen out yet but I`m staying alert.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Socky said:

    I wonder if more success for the SNP might actually come to bite them on the bum?

    I'm thinking that at some point the stroppy teenager act is going to wear thin. All that whining and door slamming might just cause the UK government to decide to give them some adult responsibility.

    In particular I am thinking changes to taxation could be a useful tool. If, say, as part of a package of tax changes to cope with the after-corona landscape, the UK regions were forced to become more self sufficient in revenue collecting? Suddenly no more blaming daddy for their stingy allowance.

    I do find the older I get the more I understand what my parents went through...

    What an English centric view , how dare those uppity Scots try and think for themselves. Big daddy will punish them roundly and force them to heel. We will set our onerous taxes and force them into submission. Perhaps the solution is to devolve all tax raising powers , I mean ALL taxes and we will see what happens.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    HYUFD said:

    Disagree with this thread header.

    First Nationalists already have a majority at Holyrood via the SNP and Greens so will be on the defensive while Unionists will be on the attack and while the SNP will almost certainly be largest party it only takes the loss of a few SNP or Green seats to Unionist parties for Sturgeon to face a May 2017 style disaster and lose her majority and the majority for independence at Holyrood as May lost the majority for Brexit at Westminster.

    Second the Scottish Conservatives only got 22% at Holyrood in 2016 on the constituency and list vote, so if they are now polling 23 to 26% Jackson Carlaw might even win more MSPs than Ruth Davidson got in 2016.

    Third, Boris won in 2019 on a manifesto of refusing any further independence referendum if the Tories won a majority, correctly as No won in 2014 the 'once in a generation referendum' as Salmond called it. Sturgeon in turn has refused to call any indyref without Westminster consent and risk a Madrid Catalonia style standoff, much to the anger of militant Nats already angry at Salmond's treatment, hence mutterings of a breakaway Nat party next year and Joanna Cherry's comments

    In other words the SNP may not get an indy majority at Holyrood in 2021 so they couldn't hold a new referendum but even if they did the Conservatives are in power at Westminster so they still can't hold another referendum.

    Frankly astonished at this new development in your constitutional thinking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    edited May 2020
    Hey now, it probably took a lot of effort not to refer to Sturgeon as the 'Scottish lass', meet him halfway here.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Stocky said:

    She takes a very different view for Scotland in contrast to England?

    Well, knock me down with a feather.
    The Labour Party and SNP are gagging for attack lines which is why both Sturgeon and Starmer have been pressing the government for lockdown easing plans - which they can they go on to criticise. Accordingly, Tories are scared of negative narratives developing. Bit of a stalemate. This party political stuff is the last thing we need at the moment.

    The government are in a proper bind.
    You halfwitted numpty, they are showing leadership rather than just blindly following a dumb arsehole and his band of arseholes. Your mistaken view that England knows best and those colonies should just kowtow to their masters and do as they are told by their betters says a lot.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alastair Meeks's 10-1 tip on NOM in 2016 was a great bet.

    Given things in Scotland are looking worse than the rest of the UK, I wouldn't bet on these elections. There's a decent chance they don't happen.

    On what measure worse?
    Sky show a chart of hospital admissions (I think) as a percentage of the peak and Scotland is still quite high compared with England.

    Presumably this is why Sturgeon is worried.

    The question that no one is asking is, what’s the plan? That Sun poll has a quarter of people wanting lockdown to continue until the virus is eradicated.
    Scotland is 2-3 weeks behind England on the Corona curve, I think that's neither here nor there when it comes to elections next year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    OllyT said:

    Charles said:

    My friends overseas are amazed at the bog we're apparently making of it. Laughing stock is one description.
    Very few people I know are laughing about this.

    I think that was a turn of phrase rather than meant to be taken literally. The fact is that the UK is being pointed to around the world as a failure in its response to Covid-19.
    By who? A few leftwing papers like the New York Times that is about it.

    Most countries are concerned with their own situation and anyway the US has most deaths in total and Belgium most deaths per head, not the UK
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21

    Is this graph correcf fie the UK? We dont record total active cases do we? It seems wrong.
    I'm not sure on the accuracy of that chart (the UK seems to have come down faster than that) but that looks rather like the UK has "flattened the curve". The flatten the curve graphs shared massively before lockdown had the no flattening one being steeply up then steeply down while the flattened curve one was up but to a lower peak then coming down much slower and with a longer tail than without flattening.
    The UK is almost unique in failing to record the number of recovered so any chart of active cases can only go down if people die. Its absurd and I don't understand why we do not record this information which is surely essential if we need to know how close to herd immunity we are getting.
    Presumably because we don't have the foggiest how many have recovered as they'll be recovering at home and not reporting that?

    If we need to know how close to herd immunity we are we need to know how many people have actually had it - not how many of those who've said they had it since say they don't anymore.
    Unless there is a colossal iceberg effect we're nowhere near herd immunity. About 6 out of 500ish of my friends and colleagues I know have had it, which would equate to around a half million cases. The true number is probably higher, but even if it is 4 or 5 million then you've got 60+ million with no immunity.
    Herd immunity doesn't require 100% nor is it 'all or nothing', if even 5 million have it then we are approaching 10% with immunity and that would have a meaningful impact on reducing R.
    10% with immunity doesn't have much effect ont he transmission rate of the virus.
    Why not? That's 10% fewer people able to get it, able to spread it etc - and these changes compound as we know which is why the effort to reduce R in the first place. Plus if Edmond is right (and it is logical) that the first 10% are more likely to be exposed and thus spreaders it would be even more.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    DavidL said:

    SNP most seats is free money at 1/10. I just don't understand those odds at all. What could possibly prevent it?
    A Salmond inspired breakaway of a different nationalist party? I would put that at less than 50/1. A palace coup removing Sturgeon by the likes of Cherry? Not even 50/1. An all conquering Tory party? You just have to type it to see how absurd that is.

    On a very good day I can see the Tories getting close to 30% and the SNP down to 35%. My wildest dreams don't go further than that.

    Those are fantasies David not dreams.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    On herd immunity:

    " One experienced modeller tells us that “my own modelling suggests that somewhere between 10 per cent and 30 per cent would suffice, depending on what assumptions one makes.” "

    (Telegraph)

    As I pointed out yesterday, Swedish Witty isn't claiming "herd immunity". What he said in the interview I linked was that he thought 20% of the Swedish population had contracted this and that would provide a level of "community immunity" that means you won't get mass spike / outbreak. Instead, you continue to get a background level of this, but one which hospitals can cope with.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    dodrade said:

    Government critics two weeks ago:

    "Stop treating us like children!"

    Government critics today:

    "We don't know what the word "alert" means!"

    Point taken, but there is at least a level of ambiguity about what alert would mean in a practical context for different people and groups which does not exist with stay home. I've given the government a lot of leeway and still do, and I'm not about to say stay alert is drastically terrible, but I do think public bodies needing to be clear how alert they are advising people to be and what that means is not that unreasonable.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    DavidL said:

    Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21

    Is this graph correcf fie the UK? We dont record total active cases do we? It seems wrong.
    I'm not sure on the accuracy of that chart (the UK seems to have come down faster than that) but that looks rather like the UK has "flattened the curve". The flatten the curve graphs shared massively before lockdown had the no flattening one being steeply up then steeply down while the flattened curve one was up but to a lower peak then coming down much slower and with a longer tail than without flattening.
    The UK is almost unique in failing to record the number of recovered so any chart of active cases can only go down if people die. Its absurd and I don't understand why we do not record this information which is surely essential if we need to know how close to herd immunity we are getting.
    Since a case of Corona can't go on forever, it should be a fairly simple equation (not simple enough for me to create I am afraid) to take the initial case number, the deaths, and work out the recovered and the active cases.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited May 2020

    Nothing wrong with the 'Stay Alert' slogan.

    People are now on a blame-game bandwagon. The slogan is fine for the next phase of getting us out of lockdown.

    I don't think the slogan is great, but we are definitely back to the media doing their "but we are so confused" routine.
    Please help us all out.

    Give us instructions, say a working person (some on here have small children so let's include them) on how to conduct yourself next week staying alert.

    TIA.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    In that case they could do what Boris did at that meeting - agree with it on the day, then change their minds when someone else grabs the limelight of opposition.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    Seriously, it's not just the Government that have come out of this crisis badly, I think a lot of people have their thumbs up bums and their minds in neutral.

    We have to take personal responsibility, to get out but stay alert.

    Jeesuzbloodychrist ... it's not something to be having this echo chamber argument about. We need to kick our bloody butts back into life and re-start the economy.

    We're the nation who cracked it at Dunkirk and returned 4 years later to fight the enemy back. We can do this. Have some spunk, folks.

    G'day. xx

    Emotional arguments don't work on a virus.
    Hopefully the government will have learnt from their mistakes and listened to scientists. Restarting the economy will have to be done carefully otherwise a second lockdown will be needed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Testing capacity of 100k....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52603566
    ...The government has admitted sending about 50,000 coronavirus tests to the US last week for processing after "operational issues" in UK labs.
    The Department of Health said sending swabs abroad are among the contingencies to deal with "teething problems".
    The samples were airlifted to the US in chartered flights from Stansted Airport, the Sunday Telegraph said.
    Results will be validated in the UK and sent to patients as soon as possible....


    Results which are not available within 24 hours are of questionable use.

    And if testing is going to support contact tracing, results must be available immediately.
    If have yet to see any evidence that we’ve started to develop an effective contact tracing capacity.
    And app on its own (assuming it works) is nowhere near sufficient.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alastair Meeks's 10-1 tip on NOM in 2016 was a great bet.

    Given things in Scotland are looking worse than the rest of the UK, I wouldn't bet on these elections. There's a decent chance they don't happen.

    On what measure worse?
    Sky show a chart of hospital admissions (I think) as a percentage of the peak and Scotland is still quite high compared with England.

    Presumably this is why Sturgeon is worried.

    The question that no one is asking is, what’s the plan? That Sun poll has a quarter of people wanting lockdown to continue until the virus is eradicated.

    Scotland is 2-3 weeks behind England on the Corona curve, I think that's neither here nor there when it comes to elections next year.
    I’m not sure you can be behind when lockdown happened at the same time (and peaks happened at the same time).

    Anyway, I wouldn’t bet on English elections either for the same reason.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    “If we need to adapt our app, or move to a different model, obviously we will do.” - Jenrick

    I think we know what that means.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies for linking to one of my own Tweets, but the charts are interesting, I think.
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21

    Is this graph correcf fie the UK? We dont record total active cases do we? It seems wrong.
    I'm not sure on the accuracy of that chart (the UK seems to have come down faster than that) but that looks rather like the UK has "flattened the curve". The flatten the curve graphs shared massively before lockdown had the no flattening one being steeply up then steeply down while the flattened curve one was up but to a lower peak then coming down much slower and with a longer tail than without flattening.
    The UK is almost unique in failing to record the number of recovered so any chart of active cases can only go down if people die. Its absurd and I don't understand why we do not record this information which is surely essential if we need to know how close to herd immunity we are getting.
    Presumably because we don't have the foggiest how many have recovered as they'll be recovering at home and not reporting that?

    If we need to know how close to herd immunity we are we need to know how many people have actually had it - not how many of those who've said they had it since say they don't anymore.
    Unless there is a colossal iceberg effect we're nowhere near herd immunity. About 6 out of 500ish of my friends and colleagues I know have had it, which would equate to around a half million cases. The true number is probably higher, but even if it is 4 or 5 million then you've got 60+ million with no immunity.
    Herd immunity doesn't require 100% nor is it 'all or nothing', if even 5 million have it then we are approaching 10% with immunity and that would have a meaningful impact on reducing R.
    That's not what "herd immunity" means, though.

    It means when you reach the critical point the herd as a whole is immune in the sense that small outbreaks will die out. It doesn't mean some animals are immune so that outbreaks grow more slowly.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I remember the media wanking themselves cross eyed over take back control and get brexit done slogans being unclear, untrue, stupid, etc.

    Quite!

    Stay Alert is fine. Does the job.
    Stay alert is excellent advice for my daily walk to the fish and chip shop as pedestrians are in constant danger from the growing army of electric scooters; sod all help with the virus though.
    It's sound advice for the virus. If you're out of the home more you need to be alert to the dangers more. Failing to social distance while out of the home could be more of a risk than an electric scooter.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    I think the media are the obsessing
    Same request to you please. "Stay Alert" is the new phase behavioural advice. Please let us know what it means exactly. Stay at Home I get. This, less so.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    tlg86 said:

    Alastair Meeks's 10-1 tip on NOM in 2016 was a great bet.

    Given things in Scotland are looking worse than the rest of the UK, I wouldn't bet on these elections. There's a decent chance they don't happen.

    Ironically the uselessness of the Government means that the elections (Scottish and otherwise) slated for next May could well go ahead. If the disease runs rampant through the population then it could be over (herd immunity achieved at the cost of massive loss of life) before then. But we're all guessing on this one, aren't we?
    TGOHF666 said:

    No administration is immune to gravity. Particularly ones that aren’t any good at the basics like education, health, finance.

    The SNP high command could be caught eating roast baby sandwiches for lunch and still poll 45%. This will continue until independence.

    tlg86 said:

    Alastair Meeks's 10-1 tip on NOM in 2016 was a great bet.

    Given things in Scotland are looking worse than the rest of the UK, I wouldn't bet on these elections. There's a decent chance they don't happen.

    Ironically the uselessness of the Government means that the elections (Scottish and otherwise) slated for next May could well go ahead. If the disease runs rampant through the population then it could be over (herd immunity achieved at the cost of massive loss of life) before then. But we're all guessing on this one, aren't we?
    TGOHF666 said:

    No administration is immune to gravity. Particularly ones that aren’t any good at the basics like education, health, finance.

    The SNP high command could be caught eating roast baby sandwiches for lunch and still poll 45%. This will continue until independence.
    That was not the case at the 2017 GE.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The absolute inevitability of SNP most seats is what drives Tory tactics in focusing on indepdence. What is the point in spending a lot of time developing a better policy on education when there is no chance of being the government? What they are seeking to do is consolidate enough of the Unionist vote to prevent an SNP majority and thus, hopefully, prevent a second referendum (subject to the little green helpers, of course).

    Whilst I understand the logic of that it is a mistake. Scotland has not had an actual policy choice since 2007. In that 13 years we have had the truly disastrous Curriculum for Excellence imposed in our schools with the inevitable consequences in our PISA ranking, we have the insane position of still offering free University education to EU citizens at a time when funded places for Scots are being restricted, we have had the shambolic and ongoing embarrassment that is Police Scotland, we have had an ever more centralised and unaccountable concentration of power in the likes of the Care Commission, stripping local government of powers and budget, I really could go on and on. As someone actively interested in politics I genuinely don't know what the Tories or Labour are proposing in relation to these failures. It's not good enough. Scotland needs a proper choice.

    Which is part of why I back Scottish independence as the best thing for Scotland.

    It is only once the independence issue is over and done with that Scotland can get mature, grown up politics back.
    I am British. I would be stripped of my national identity if that were to happen. I will do all I can to stop it.
    Good man. I feel the same way.

    I am English but love Scotland - I lived there for six years as a child - and feel it's part of our UK.

    I would be so upset if it left. It's the emotional connections that mean so much to me.
    British identity is already dead. The country is possessed by an English nationalism that regards all other identities as invalid.
    Not amongst all of us it isn't.
    I almost feel sorry for you because you’re so oblivious. But you chose to throw yourself in with a movement that militantly rejects other views of identity, branding them traitors and quislings, and telling them just to suck it up.

    And then you wonder why the concept of an inclusive Britishness is now purely historical.
    I see your tourettes has returned.
    You think you can just divide the nation in two, impose the most extreme version of your preferred outcome riding roughshod over your opponents without wrecking any sense of common purpose? I realised that Leavers were fantasists but we’re now approaching fairytales.
    Non-sequitur of the month, ladies & gentlemen.

    It's kind of cute though. These sort of arguments almost feel nostalgic now.

    I'm off for a walk with my family. Have a great day x
    You think your aggressive support of a highly divisive campaign that gets steadily more extreme has no connection with a common sense of identity?

    For their next trick, Leavers will repeal the law of gravity.
    You aren't exactly winning the argument, are you?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    ydoethur said:

    She takes a very different view for Scotland in contrast to England?

    Well, knock me down with a feather.
    I can’t help but feel though this is politically risky.

    If England reopens earlier and seems to be doing OK despite having been harder hit than Scotland, she’s going to have a hard time explaining to the voters of Scotland that it was really important that she forced them to absorb more economic damage so that Scottish policy would not be the same as English policy.

    Of course, if the opposite is true, SNP gain 75% of seats and Labour gain Horsham.
    If that happened she'd blame Westminster for not passing over enough PPE supplies, mismanaging the scientific advice, not giving enough funding under Barnett to the Scottish NHS, Brexit, the Tories or all of the above.

    There is no scenario under which the SNP will ever take responsibility for any failing in Scotland.
    Another English view of we should know our place and bow down to our English betters. There are a real bunch of jingoistic fcukwits on here that have very high opinions of themselves and their shit leaders.
    If you had the brains to listen to her every day she states clearly that she is the one making the right or wrong decisions , despite London cutting her out of discussions, telling departments not to allow Scotland to order PPE etc etc. Broaden your horizons and look at your bigotry.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Scott_xP said:
    Given her record, not understanding the meaning of the word 'alert' comes as no surprise.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Testing capacity of 100k....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52603566
    ...The government has admitted sending about 50,000 coronavirus tests to the US last week for processing after "operational issues" in UK labs.
    The Department of Health said sending swabs abroad are among the contingencies to deal with "teething problems".
    The samples were airlifted to the US in chartered flights from Stansted Airport, the Sunday Telegraph said.
    Results will be validated in the UK and sent to patients as soon as possible....


    Results which are not available within 24 hours are of questionable use.

    And if testing is going to support contact tracing, results must be available immediately.
    If have yet to see any evidence that we’ve started to develop an effective contact tracing capacity.
    And app on its own (assuming it works) is nowhere near sufficient.

    This is why the 100k target and the media obsession with if it 95k or 105k, it is just dumb. We need prioritized testing and results within 24hrs for at worst, high priority cases.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why on earth is the government apparently obsessing about slogans rather than actual practical measures?

    I think the media are the obsessing
    Same request to you please. "Stay Alert" is the new phase behavioural advice. Please let us know what it means exactly. Stay at Home I get. This, less so.
    Off the top of my head ...

    Stay distanced, don't cough into the air, wash your hands etc ... Be alert to the dangers and lessons we have learnt in recent months.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,259
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/pauljholden/status/1259413078246068224

    BoZo needs to rewrite his speech to explain why the slogan in England is different from Scotland and Wales, and why it doesn't mean what everyone thinks it means...

    That's simple. Scotland is a foreign country in this regard and has its own strategy. We should no more have the same slogan with them as we would have the same as the French. People don't get devolution, do they? The whole point us to allow different countries do things differently. Instead we get finger-pointing and demands to be the same.
This discussion has been closed.