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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone de
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?
I’m genuinely looking forward to next year’s Holyrood election, 2011 and 2016 were really profitable elections thanks to Iain Grey’s dire ratings indicating a shellacking for Labour and in 2016 you could get 8/1 on the day of the election on the SNP not obtaining a majority, sometimes betting from distance gives a great perspective.
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DYOR.
Given things in Scotland are looking worse than the rest of the UK, I wouldn't bet on these elections. There's a decent chance they don't happen.
On Mr tig86's point, I think there's a possibility of a bust-up on corona virus policy between Holyrood and London.
Secondly, being a laggard can also be weaponized politically. Indeed, it's already started. The loud noises about 'not being rushed into doing things' (by evil Tories) and 'making the decisions that are best for Scotland' (as distinct from Tory England) have commenced in recent days.
This result from Opinium, however, is consistent with this one:
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1256892770024898560?s=19
The government seems to be benefiting for now from patriotism. The public is clear-eyed about its failures. How this will resolve itself once the crisis is past is unclear.
I hate it, but politicalbetting isn't about what you want: it's about what you think will happen and seeking the value out there.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/1259362627521785857
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1259132265361100801
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1259368031593127937?s=21
Why wouldn't they be worried about it and trying to stop it?
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
You end up with a new spike, a load more dead people, and you've blown away the effect of the lockdown and you have to start the whole thing again.
Mr. Observer, Italy and Spain are the relevant comparisons, to the extent there are such things.
I wonder if the focus on the start of the lockdown might have detracted attention from it being laxer than other countries', thereby making things slower to improve.
- her surgery is "gradually getting a bit busier," which is a good thing of course
- "technology has advanced across the health service at a rate of knots"; talking about it having become much easier for patients to interact with the surgery electronically: "we are trying to get as much as possible now all done online," with the caveat that safeguards are in place for e.g. older people who aren't technologically adept and can still get what they need through phoning the receptionists
- she's very positive about the suggestion that limits on outdoor exercise are to be lifted - referencing the general benefits to mental and physical health, but also saying that "the message is getting out there that people who are overweight and obese do seem to be disproportionately at risk of having a bad illness" if they get Covid-19 - losing weight, unlike other risk factors like gender and ethnicity, is one thing that people can actually do something positive about, especially given that she suspects that a lot of people will have got heavier rather than lighter during the lockdown
- asked about the recent scenes of crowded urban parks, she says that the virus "does not appear to spread very well in the open air" and that "busy parks are OK" provided that people observe social distancing: "it doesn't matter how busy the park is so long as you're keeping away from other people"
- plus, getting out in the sunshine is good for stimulating vitamin D production, which may be a risk factor for this disease in terms of a lack of it compromising the immune system
- on the forthcoming change of messaging from "stay home" to "stay alert", emphasising that people should look out for a range of symptoms, such as loss of sense of taste and smell and all-over muscle aches and pains, as well as the fever and dry cough; if people do have symptoms then they should try to book a test, and isolate and keep away from other people
- on whether the change of messaging to "stay alert" is too vague, "there is always going to be a problem when we start lifting this absolute lockdown of what can people do"; the interviewer did not press this point but I take this as being an acknowledgement from the GP that the change of tone is something that would've been hard to manage whenever it came, as distinct from being something that explicitly should not be happening right now
- clarifying the messaging about masks (presumably talking here about cloth masks rather than high-spec clinical ones): main point of wearing a mask is to protect those around you, whereby if you have the virus and you cough or sneeze then it may make a tiny difference to the chance of your passing it on to someone else; they offer no additional protection to the wearer
- in terms of protecting yourself, the most important things you can do are to observe social distancing and wash your hands frequently
The problems are that we utterly screwed up during the first month and since then we've had big failings on contact tracing, PPE, care homes, testing and re-educating the public to wear protective face masks. The latter is important as pretty-much everywhere else in the world knows full well. My mask is excellent with replacement washable filters at FFP2 rating. The virus is extremely unlikely to penetrate it and if everyone else were wearing them I'd be rock-solid safe ...
There's something curious about all this though. We may actually come out of this better than other nations. If no vaccine or cure is found, our inept handling may mean we have far more virus circulation than other countries so that we naturally resist third, fourth, fifth waves.
I'm refusing to use the god-awful phrase 'herd immunity.'
This is the party that allowed Donald Trump to destroy natural habitat to build a golf resort, let's remember.
And what exactly is their position on the oil industry?
I went through three weeks of needing to take a police permit in advance to go to the supermarket, and six weeks of not being allowed outside to exercise at all.
This crisis has shown that Boris has a number of deadbeats in his Cabinet.
Why is the left in such a mess? Because it's full of morons.
https://capx.co/as-we-lift-the-lockdown-remember-that-fortune-favours-the-rave/
The chaotic mixed messaging since Wednesday is truly shambolic and can be laid directly at Boris' door.
The medics as well as the Government are still very reticent to change the messaging on masks. Is it just possible that they are right? Mask wearing is culturally prevalent in some east Asian societies that have also had relative success in containing the virus, but it doesn't necessarily follow that mask wearing is one of the reasons for that success.
The success or otherwise of the search for a vaccine or effective treatments is the biggest unknown in all of this. Obviously if it's successful in the next year or so then the disease will be squashed and the countries that have had most success in controlling it should come out of this best. But if we've still not got very far in ten years' time then those who have followed the Swedish route (whether by accident or design) may well end up suffering less in the long run, because of a more rapid return to something resembling normality.
New Zealand, for example, has done a superb job of crushing Covid-19 within its own borders; however, like a shielded person faced with being stuck in their own house indefinitely, it may not be very enthusiastic about having to cut itself off from the world for the rest of time.
And that is without an IndyRef2 debate focusing on about 7 impossible questions: the EU's approach; the hard border at Gretna and Berwick; debt; currency; English subsidy; free movement; effect on UK trade.
In the light of all this the pragmatic Scots will continue as they have done recently: vote for the maximum autonomy consistent with the UK as a whole being responsible for the insoluble bits and as funder of last resort.
Depends whether the groups who were meeting for a drink in the park yesterday are staying at home or meeting at one of their houses instead.
We await Bozo's big empty speech.
The reason the media have had a field day is because there's one to be had.
It’s better not to try and work with such nuts. They don’t allow facts to influence their views.
He was not made for this kind of thing and neither was his Government/cabinet. And it shows.
Banging on about IndyRef right now is the most parochial of concerns.
That Room Next Door thing with Hancock was so brutal I almost felt sorry for him then I remembered he was a tory so fuck him.
I happen to think the new Labour SC - with the notable exception of Thornberry and RLB - at least appears competent to me so far. They've got no actual nutters in there that I can see, unlike Raab and Patel.
Everyone deserves somebody to defend them...
Oh, sorry - were you not referring to court proceedings?
More mixed messaging
I hope at least most will agree that we have a competent opposition again and if they continue to be competent, they should get more support.
It looks like its shallow and long unfortunately.
Id guess the risk of the big second peak is higher in the autumn/winter than the summer.
For a start there's no such thing as 'the mail.' There are two distinct, warring, newspapers called The Daily Mail and The Mail on Sunday. Yes, they share a website but they have a completely different set of staff and a lot of them hate one another.
The Mail on Sunday is certainly NOT Goveian. Both it and its sister paper have considerable pro-Boris leanings. The MoS has a wide range of columnists and it might surprise you to learn that many of them are soft left-leaning.
The Mail is a Tory-supporting platform, it’s silly to pretend otherwise. Gove and Johnson are currently joined at the hip, united by a common bond with Dominic Cummings.
After coffee is served you can read that infamous left wing rag, the Mail on Sunday.
He said it would be 70 seats decided by triple digit margins.
He was out by a factor of seven not ten.
Moth du Jour: Swallow-tailed Moth Ourapteryx sambucaria
A moth of warm summer evenings, when it can appear in numbers. Beautiful when freshly emerged, they do have a tendency to get a bit tatty. So enjoy this pristine, fresh out the box example. Moth du Jour signing off....until the second wave.
I won't express my personal views on this but at least you are honest I suppose.
SNP will need to make 2021 election all about independence for certain though.
Obviously many Scots will be left entirely cold but I'd appeal to shared bonds we have as Britons across our islands and the great future we have together.
Forget the project fear stuff.
Mao, perhaps, although he was more usually causing crises than trying to lead in them.
Well, knock me down with a feather.
If England reopens earlier and seems to be doing OK despite having been harder hit than Scotland, she’s going to have a hard time explaining to the voters of Scotland that it was really important that she forced them to absorb more economic damage so that Scottish policy would not be the same as English policy.
Of course, if the opposite is true, SNP gain 75% of seats and Labour gain Horsham.
I'd prefer to win or lose on those grounds.