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My question would still be: is age only the main factor because most older people have health conditions?TGOHF666 said:0 -
I long for the days of dull incompetence.Philip_Thompson said:
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.Foxy said:
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.TOPPING said:
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.Nigelb said:
Dull on its own will not do the job.TOPPING said:
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.Nigelb said:
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury.eadric said:
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.Slackbladder said:
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.bigjohnowls said:SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
Ne me frego
If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it
But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.0 -
Anyone who thinks the UK has a balanced press is not right in the head , only in their thinking.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at all. Balanced free press and this weeks panorama was far from thatmalcolmg said:
Suppression of the free press, what will Tories think of next. We do not like criticism so shut it down. What next, are the brown shirts being ironed and the boots polished.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The programme is not acceptable by any reasonable standards of balance and should be investigated by Ofcom. When will the BBC learnbigjohnowls said:
And yet none of the PPE statistics or facts quoted in the programme are disputed.tlg86 said:
https://order-order.com/2020/04/29/hancock-slams-panorama-communist-union-organiser-boasts-recruited-participants/bigjohnowls said:SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
We had a critically low stock of gowns but bought none for our stockpile
And as for PPE Germany now admit they are in a crisis of supply1 -
It is such a small number, I would be concerned about "sampling issues". A very small community in Norway, I am going to guess many live in the same area*, go to the same Mosque, same shops selling African produce etc etc etc.Andy_JS said:"When Norway’s public health experts began looking into the backgrounds of those infected by coronavirus, they made a startling discovery: people born in Somalia have infection rates more than 10 times above the national average."
https://www.ft.com/content/5fd6ab18-be4a-48de-b887-8478a391dd72
* I believe this is a complaint in Nordic countries that when people get refuge, they get to pick where they live and of course they choose where all the others from their home country reside. Which in turn can causes issues of ghetto-isation, more difficult to integrate.1 -
There's anecdotal evidence that the useless 111 service is advising people to stay home for too long so that people are too ill to survive by the time they make it to hospital.eadric said:
That may be true, but it’s not the point I was making. We have far fewer covid19 cases in ICU than comparable nations. The explanation, whatever it is, would be illuminatingcontrarian said:
The NHS simply stopped treating other illnesses. Look at the estimates on cancer. Never mind NHS workers. Its the poor wretches dying needlessly of other illnesses whose families deserve 60 grand.eadric said:
Yes, the mysteries and anomalies multiply.FrancisUrquhart said:
This is the most confusing aspect of all of this. Italy crashed, Spain crashed, NYC crashed, Paris crashed. We didn't, despite lower capacity (Ferguson said two hospitals in London hit absolute max for a day or two, but that was it), and Sweden despite having even lower than UK have managed fine.eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
I haven't heard anybody give a good reason why. There is no evidence of Boris the Butcher ripping away CPAP masks or ventilators from fit oldies, in the way the Italians had to do. But we have had deaths in the same range as a country / city, whose healthcare system had crashed.
Look at the serious/critical cases column, here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The UK is by a distance the best performing large European country. France, for example, has three times as many ICU beds in operation
Why? Are obese Brits just dying quicker, vacating beds? Are braver Brits choosing to suffer stoically at home?
Once this is done, god willing, the data crunching and analysis will be fascinating, albeit macabre
Apparently in Germany, they test people in the community for Coronavirus, and can then do follow-up visits on identified cases to monitor people's condition and hospitalise those that need treatment.
Perhaps the British are showing that they're still as stoic as previous generations (notable exceptions aside), but being led by donkeys again it is killing them.0 -
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.0 -
Incredibly dire.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.0 -
"Never include them". That pesky Westminster Government looking to hide the figures by releasing them through a that shadowy secretive body, the Office for National Statistics.malcolmg said:
How would we ever know it is first time in the UK given they fiddle the numbers in England and never include them , you have to try and unpick them a month later from ONS. Easy fiddle rather than take it on the chin as Boris said.TGOHF666 said:
Never change, Malc, you're a gem.2 -
I had another look at the data.Gallowgate said:
What does this suggest?Malmesbury said:Malmesbury said:
In general, the trend in the numbers is that the bulk of daily number is the day before. So for todayNerysHughes said:
Deaths look like they are down 30% from last week to meMaxPB said:I think English 7 day cumulative deaths are going to settle at 400 per day for a while. The trend doesn't seem to be budging from that baseline.
28th 96
27th 148
26th 42
etc
148 is the lowest this has been in a long time
The second day of data is between 40-50% of the final, stable number with good consistency across the data. Presumably this is from the reporting process times.
Which *suggests* that the final number for the 27th will be in the range 300-370
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1U0TUJF7ldNr7b0HaZ72vXAuDNqpQA8yL
is the combined spreadsheet I generated from all the NHS England data0 -
How do we know? He's not there atm and anyway I thought government was by cabinet?Philip_Thompson said:
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.Foxy said:
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.TOPPING said:
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.Nigelb said:
Dull on its own will not do the job.TOPPING said:
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.Nigelb said:
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury.eadric said:
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.Slackbladder said:
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.bigjohnowls said:SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
Ne me frego
If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it
But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.0 -
Is that you Theresa?Anabobazina said:
I long for the days of dull incompetence.Philip_Thompson said:
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.Foxy said:
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.TOPPING said:
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.Nigelb said:
Dull on its own will not do the job.TOPPING said:
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.Nigelb said:
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury.eadric said:
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.Slackbladder said:
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.bigjohnowls said:SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
Ne me frego
If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it
But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.2 -
All papers are partisan but you just don't notice it in those publications which reflect your views.TOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.1 -
Few weeks of rain now won't hurt. Keep everybody in their homes for a bit longer.1
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Indeed. We're on the flamboyantly (!) competent road to the worst Covid-19 outcome in Europe.Philip_Thompson said:
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.Foxy said:
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.TOPPING said:
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.Nigelb said:
Dull on its own will not do the job.TOPPING said:
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.Nigelb said:
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury.eadric said:
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.Slackbladder said:
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.bigjohnowls said:SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
Ne me frego
If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it
But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.0 -
Bet BJ will be psychologically incapable of not getting stuck into this.
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=200 -
Looks like warming up again down south at least from the weekend, but showers around on certain days. Good growing weather!FrancisUrquhart said:Few weeks of rain now won't hurt. Keep everybody in their homes for a bit longer.
0 -
Oh he'll be doing that alright.Theuniondivvie said:Bet BJ will be psychologically incapable of not getting stuck into this.
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=200 -
Just as you only notice the wind when its blowing against you when riding your bikeMikeSmithson said:
All papers are partisan but you just don't notice it in those publications which reflect your views.TOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.0 -
That might be the issue, or part of it, but there is plenty of other evidence (albeit in very noisy data) that racial background is an important element of differential risk. Clearly it will need proper research to disentangle what exactly is going on here, but it would not be at all surprising if there were an underlying genetic reason for much or some of the disparities. After all, we know that there are significant genetically-based differences between races (and national populations) in susceptibility to other diseases (cystic fibrosis, sickle-cell anaemia, autoimmune diseases, etc).FrancisUrquhart said:
It is such a small number, I would be concerned about "sampling issues". A very small community in Norway, I am going to guess many live in the same area*, go to the same Mosque, same shops selling African produce etc etc etc.Andy_JS said:"When Norway’s public health experts began looking into the backgrounds of those infected by coronavirus, they made a startling discovery: people born in Somalia have infection rates more than 10 times above the national average."
https://www.ft.com/content/5fd6ab18-be4a-48de-b887-8478a391dd72
* I believe this is a complaint in Nordic countries that when people get refuge, they get to pick where they live and of course they choose where all the others from their home country reside. Which in turn can causes issues of ghetto-isation, more difficult to integrate.
0 -
That is an interesting paper. Age was a very strong risk factor even when all known co morbidities were adjusted for. Being fit elderly doesn't seem to help much.TGOHF666 said:
Scary mortality for disease severe enough for admission, but without community testing it is very hard to know whether there are 10 non admitted for every admission. We really do not have much idea of the numbers. This cartoon summarises our problem well:
2 -
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.Theuniondivvie said:Bet BJ will be psychologically incapable of not getting stuck into this.
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=200 -
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.malcolmg said:
Incredibly dire.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
0 -
That's very true. but the Telegraph is a million miles from the sort of quality journalism I read 50 yrs ago as a teenager, and I have no idea what it wants to say, I guess neither do the Barclay Bros after they lost. I think they are trying to flog the paper.MikeSmithson said:
All papers are partisan but you just don't notice it in those publications which reflect your views.TOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.
So by elimination, not wanting to read the tabloids, the Mail is appalling, and forgetting left wing media , one is left with the Times that isn't exactly Tory friendly, but the journalism is very good.0 -
This would just make me think of Dr Strangelove.Theuniondivvie said:Bet BJ will be psychologically incapable of not getting stuck into this.
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=200 -
And hide them on a slideshow presented each day from No.10 and broadcast on every television news channel...DougSeal said:
"Never include them". That pesky Westminster Government looking to hide the figures by releasing them through a that shadowy secretive body, the Office for National Statistics.malcolmg said:
How would we ever know it is first time in the UK given they fiddle the numbers in England and never include them , you have to try and unpick them a month later from ONS. Easy fiddle rather than take it on the chin as Boris said.TGOHF666 said:
Never change, Malc, you're a gem.
Then put the slideshow and data on a hidden website -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-28-april-2020
The cunning barstewards.1 -
That is true but I read and have read the Graun quite regularly for some time (or used to) and I discerned a change after the GE.MikeSmithson said:
All papers are partisan but you just don't notice it in those publications which reflect your views.TOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.0 -
Times, see my reply to Mr SmithsonTOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.0 -
are there no lengths BoJo won't go to to miss PMQ?0
-
It's not surprising, they're no longer worried about scary Mr. Corbyn taxing their second homesTOPPING said:
That is true but I read and have read the Graun quite regularly for some time (or used to) and I discerned a change after the GE.MikeSmithson said:
All papers are partisan but you just don't notice it in those publications which reflect your views.TOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.0 -
Sir Keir Starmer’s mother in law had a nasty accident and later passed away during the latter stages of the Labour leadership campaign. He took a load of time off, suspended his campaign, missed one set of hustings and sent a replacement to another.
Was this ok?
Would the Boris haters be criticising Sir Keir if he had took the same decision, to be with his family in their time of need, if it had happened while he were PM?1 -
I don't think it an accurate measure though. A quick bit of Google research suggests a an average EVD case fatality rate of around 50%, which is more than 10 times more than CV19. If a disease (any disease) is serious enough for hospitalisation then there is an elevated chance of mortality in that specific case.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.0 -
This isn't true. See here:contrarian said:
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.malcolmg said:
Incredibly dire.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/covid-19-actuaries-response-group_covid-19-arg-death-row-bulletin-activity-6653226206785347584-SQnY/
Life expectancy of such people, even with ‘worst case’ profiles (eg obese smokers), are of the order of five years or more – these people would probably not have died (without COVID-19) anytime soon.1 -
One positive at least.Stereotomy said:
This would just make me think of Dr Strangelove.Theuniondivvie said:Bet BJ will be psychologically incapable of not getting stuck into this.
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=20
Genius moment in a great film.
https://youtu.be/15YgdrhrCM81 -
Yes I think it still is the paper of record.squareroot2 said:
Times, see my reply to Mr SmithsonTOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.0 -
The peak was so long ago it’s dropped off the charts!FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
the precise moment the Guardian crackedTOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.
0 -
I think it is looking likely that a vaccine will be available by the end of this year, or if not then by the end of 2021. This is likely to give the government a problem if many people don't want to take it. How many people will be willing to be vaccinated? If half the population is willing to be vaccinated then R0 will be close to 1. Some people want a vaccine to be tested on prisoners first. Despite this we are still lucky that this time a vaccine is likely to be developed; we have had a warning that a worse disaster is possible.FrancisUrquhart said:Pfizer Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said on Tuesday a coronavirus vaccine for emergency use could be ready by the autumn and for broader roll out by the end of 2020.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8268277/Pfizer-says-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-fall.html1 -
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.contrarian said:
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.malcolmg said:
Incredibly dire.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.0 -
It's all self praising rubbish but The Telegraph also used to be called the newspaper of record.TOPPING said:
Yes I think it still is the paper of record.squareroot2 said:
Times, see my reply to Mr SmithsonTOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.
How we laughed.0 -
#ExtendTheLockdown seems to be trending.0
-
Tested on prisoners? Are you serious, or is that an autocorrect of volunteers?fox327 said:
I think it is looking likely that a vaccine will be available by the end of this year, or if not then by the end of 2021. This is likely to give the government a problem if many people don't want to take it. How many people will be willing to be vaccinated? If half the population is willing to be vaccinated then R0 will be close to 1. Some people want a vaccine to be tested on prisoners first. Despite this we are still lucky that this time a vaccine is likely to be developed; we have had a warning that a worse disaster is possible.FrancisUrquhart said:Pfizer Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said on Tuesday a coronavirus vaccine for emergency use could be ready by the autumn and for broader roll out by the end of 2020.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8268277/Pfizer-says-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-fall.html0 -
matthiasfromhamburg said:
Leaving aside any questions on whether it's realistic to assume that the timeline could be replicated even for that "simple and bare bones" FTA, it might be pertinent to ask what exactly is in that "simple and bare bones" FTA and what exactly it will deliver.rpjs said:
“The EU and Mexico started the negotiations for this new, modernised agreement in May 2016. They reached an agreement in principle two years later, in April 2018, leaving for further discussion some outstanding technical issues. Those are now fully agreed.“HYUFD said:
So by that metric we should expect a UK-EU FTA in 2023 or thereabouts.
Would it be possible for Airbus to manufacture airplane wings in Wales, or for car manufacturers to produce components in the UK, and move these things across the borders in the context of just-in-time supply lines? No.
Would that FTA allow the chemical, pharma, tech, services industries to sell their goods and services across the borders? No.
Would that FTA allow British farmers and fishermen to export their products to the EU? No.
The kind of FTA to make any of that possible would be neither "simple" nor "bare bones" and would presumably require much more time, and, of course, a much, much higher level of regulatory alignment, with all that entails, to be negotiated.
If it remains a choice between what's currently on offer & WTO, then WTO is a no brainer. The EU will end up with their Singapore on Thames.0 -
Mr. Borough, not sure Twitter trends reveal much, to be honest.0
-
It will be a long tail, especially if we have severe geographic differences in infection rate.isam said:
The peak was so long ago it’s dropped off the charts!FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
In China - the state volunteers you.IshmaelZ said:
Tested on prisoners? Are you serious, or is that an autocorrect of volunteers?fox327 said:
I think it is looking likely that a vaccine will be available by the end of this year, or if not then by the end of 2021. This is likely to give the government a problem if many people don't want to take it. How many people will be willing to be vaccinated? If half the population is willing to be vaccinated then R0 will be close to 1. Some people want a vaccine to be tested on prisoners first. Despite this we are still lucky that this time a vaccine is likely to be developed; we have had a warning that a worse disaster is possible.FrancisUrquhart said:Pfizer Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said on Tuesday a coronavirus vaccine for emergency use could be ready by the autumn and for broader roll out by the end of 2020.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8268277/Pfizer-says-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-fall.html
0 -
The UK lockdown or the Boris lockdown?rottenborough said:#ExtendTheLockdown seems to be trending.
0 -
Is Polly as barking as ever or has she retired to her second home in Italy?BannedinnParis said:
the precise moment the Guardian crackedTOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.0 -
Apparently not...Charles said:are there no lengths BoJo won't go to to miss PMQ?
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/12555002152238325760 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSwMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, not sure Twitter trends reveal much, to be honest.
0 -
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Do you have a source for this figure?0 -
It is well worth clicking on the side bar to see who is saying it.rottenborough said:#ExtendTheLockdown seems to be trending.
0 -
unless you are a very ill person, the 'you' is simply not 'you'. many people have no symptoms. If you are under 50 and healthy you are in very, very little danger.Malmesbury said:
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.contrarian said:
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.malcolmg said:
Incredibly dire.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.0 -
As in, I think its Nigerian and Ghanaian expats...0
-
Based on what Barnier was saying a few days ago the trade talks should end in June and we should have six months to transition to WTO.johnoundle said:matthiasfromhamburg said:
Leaving aside any questions on whether it's realistic to assume that the timeline could be replicated even for that "simple and bare bones" FTA, it might be pertinent to ask what exactly is in that "simple and bare bones" FTA and what exactly it will deliver.rpjs said:
“The EU and Mexico started the negotiations for this new, modernised agreement in May 2016. They reached an agreement in principle two years later, in April 2018, leaving for further discussion some outstanding technical issues. Those are now fully agreed.“HYUFD said:
So by that metric we should expect a UK-EU FTA in 2023 or thereabouts.
Would it be possible for Airbus to manufacture airplane wings in Wales, or for car manufacturers to produce components in the UK, and move these things across the borders in the context of just-in-time supply lines? No.
Would that FTA allow the chemical, pharma, tech, services industries to sell their goods and services across the borders? No.
Would that FTA allow British farmers and fishermen to export their products to the EU? No.
The kind of FTA to make any of that possible would be neither "simple" nor "bare bones" and would presumably require much more time, and, of course, a much, much higher level of regulatory alignment, with all that entails, to be negotiated.
If it remains a choice between what's currently on offer & WTO, then WTO is a no brainer. The EU will end up with their Singapore on Thames.
Once the EU decides we aren't a supplicant state and they don't have a divine right to set our laws or take our fish then we can talk again.0 -
Or Buenos Aries in the Puddle...johnoundle said:matthiasfromhamburg said:
Leaving aside any questions on whether it's realistic to assume that the timeline could be replicated even for that "simple and bare bones" FTA, it might be pertinent to ask what exactly is in that "simple and bare bones" FTA and what exactly it will deliver.rpjs said:
“The EU and Mexico started the negotiations for this new, modernised agreement in May 2016. They reached an agreement in principle two years later, in April 2018, leaving for further discussion some outstanding technical issues. Those are now fully agreed.“HYUFD said:
So by that metric we should expect a UK-EU FTA in 2023 or thereabouts.
Would it be possible for Airbus to manufacture airplane wings in Wales, or for car manufacturers to produce components in the UK, and move these things across the borders in the context of just-in-time supply lines? No.
Would that FTA allow the chemical, pharma, tech, services industries to sell their goods and services across the borders? No.
Would that FTA allow British farmers and fishermen to export their products to the EU? No.
The kind of FTA to make any of that possible would be neither "simple" nor "bare bones" and would presumably require much more time, and, of course, a much, much higher level of regulatory alignment, with all that entails, to be negotiated.
If it remains a choice between what's currently on offer & WTO, then WTO is a no brainer. The EU will end up with their Singapore on Thames.
We already had Singapore on Thames, that was what Leaverstan resented.1 -
"Windsor and Maidenhead council could become first in country to file for bankruptcy as local authorities faces £5billion black hole due to coronavirus crisis"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8269187/Windsor-Maidenhead-council-country-file-bankruptcy.html0 -
Yes - hence "if you get it badly"contrarian said:
unless you are a very ill person, the 'you' is simply not 'you'. many people have no symptoms. If you are under 50 and healthy you are in very, very little danger.Malmesbury said:
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.contrarian said:
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.malcolmg said:
Incredibly dire.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
Short version - if it's bad enough to get you to hospital, you are in the sh%t.0 -
You mean Scotland. I assume. Not the UK as a whole.Philip_Thompson said:
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.Foxy said:
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.TOPPING said:
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.Nigelb said:
Dull on its own will not do the job.TOPPING said:
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.Nigelb said:
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury.eadric said:
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.Slackbladder said:
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.bigjohnowls said:SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
Ne me frego
If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it
But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.0 -
On twitter? Thus heralds the end of the lockdown.rottenborough said:#ExtendTheLockdown seems to be trending.
Interesting correlation, that said, with the weather.0 -
It is accurate on its terms but yes it's misleading to say it means that Covid is as bad as Ebola. It very much isn't. But "serious Covid" (defined as needing hospital) is on this data a vicious illness indeed. That 33% will be nearer 40% when the current cases work through. So, say you have it, you call an ambulance, they come and get you - at this point (here in the UK) you only have a slightly better than 50/50 chance of ever seeing home again. Caveat, we are all a stat of one, but still, that rather shocked me. Perhaps I haven't been paying sufficient attention.DougSeal said:
I don't think it an accurate measure though. A quick bit of Google research suggests a an average EVD case fatality rate of around 50%, which is more than 10 times more than CV19. If a disease (any disease) is serious enough for hospitalisation then there is an elevated chance of mortality in that specific case.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.0 -
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.kamski said:
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Do you have a source for this figure?0 -
You assume wrong.OldKingCole said:
You mean Scotland. I assume. Not the UK as a whole.Philip_Thompson said:
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.Foxy said:
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.TOPPING said:
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.Nigelb said:
Dull on its own will not do the job.TOPPING said:
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.Nigelb said:
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury.eadric said:
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.Slackbladder said:
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.bigjohnowls said:SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
Ne me frego
If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it
But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.0 -
Need to clarify your post here. First off, it has not (yet) killed "orders of magnitude more" than regular flu. And has not yet killed more people than have been killed by flus in bad years.Malmesbury said:
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.contrarian said:
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.malcolmg said:
Incredibly dire.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
Second, we went for a lockdown, and that looks like it might have worked (timing issues mean that it is not certain); while Sweden went for a less stringent lockdown and again, we don't know if it worked. Whatever worked means in those two contexts.
So I'm not sure your post really proves anything. Is it more virulent than bad flu epidemics? No idea. When we see that tens of thousands of people died in 1968, do we know in what way that differed, or what different mode of treatment was offered to those suffering from C-19?0 -
Currently high pressure forecast for VE Day. April has broken UK sunshine records.Anabobazina said:
Looks like warming up again down south at least from the weekend, but showers around on certain days. Good growing weather!FrancisUrquhart said:Few weeks of rain now won't hurt. Keep everybody in their homes for a bit longer.
0 -
If the case is bad enough but the case will almost certainly involve a host of other issues as well as Corona and you will probably be an old person.Malmesbury said:
Yes - hence "if you get it badly"contrarian said:
unless you are a very ill person, the 'you' is simply not 'you'. many people have no symptoms. If you are under 50 and healthy you are in very, very little danger.Malmesbury said:
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.contrarian said:
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.malcolmg said:
Incredibly dire.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
Short version - if it's bad enough to get you to hospital, you are in the sh%t.
You seem to think there are a host of otherwise healthy people under 50 being hospitalised with corona.
If what I have read is true, there are very very few.0 -
I don't recall people singing anything particular around VE Day. There was a party in the Co-op hall down the road a few days afterwards and I think we sang God Save etc.IshmaelZ said:
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.Theuniondivvie said:Bet BJ will be psychologically incapable of not getting stuck into this.
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=20
I did have the measles on the day itself, so I wasn't outside. One of life's regrets.
0 -
I saw that but changed my settings to "United Kingdom trends" and it wasn't there anymore. Looking at the tweets with the hashtag it appears to relate to the decision to relax the lockdown in Lagos from 4 May.rottenborough said:#ExtendTheLockdown seems to be trending.
0 -
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.0
-
Looks like Devon is the place to be.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
-
Once thing I haven't looked at in Sweden is ratio of Intensive Care admissions vs Deaths compared to other countries.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
From eyeballing it looks like they have quite a high ratio of admissions to deaths (as in very few ICU cases compared to number of dead) but I never trust my lying eyes.1 -
"Knees up Mother Brown" was an Armistice Day thing I believe.OldKingCole said:
I don't recall people singing anything particular around VE Day. There was a party in the Co-op hall down the road a few days afterwards and I think we sang God Save etc.IshmaelZ said:
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.Theuniondivvie said:Bet BJ will be psychologically incapable of not getting stuck into this.
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=20
I did have the measles on the day itself, so I wasn't outside. One of life's regrets.
0 -
Bit like Lady Theodosia Bryan wailing as a ghost through out all eternity, then....eadric said:TOPPING said:
That is true but I read and have read the Graun quite regularly for some time (or used to) and I discerned a change after the GE.MikeSmithson said:
All papers are partisan but you just don't notice it in those publications which reflect your views.TOPPING said:
Guardian or Times?squareroot2 said:I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.
It’s because, once Boris got a big majority, Brexit became inevitable. So Remainerism reached the final stage of its life cycle: a perpetual shriek of impotent loathing, which will very slowly fade over the aeons, like the Echo of Creation.
The guardian is a reliable source of this peculiar sound
0 -
Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped the CV tidal wave.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.0 -
The London decrease is really dramaticPulpstar said:
Looks like Devon is the place to be.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
In adjacent Sweden news they keep finding extra deaths on April the 8th. Now up to 113. They are determined to make that the peak.0
-
The stock market seems to have overdone the Gilead bounce, but I am not complaining. It does seem a bit premature considering this:Pulpstar said:I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
https://twitter.com/DSchaeferEcon/status/1255488076920639488?s=190 -
Unfortunately, it isn't that exciting news. It looks like it can help prevent quite as many people going downhill, but certainly not a magic bullet.DougSeal said:twitter.com/Reuters/status/1255496313287905287
0 -
To me that looks like the 'big ' drop is in London, with a slight smaller drop in the midlands, and the rest almost flat-Lining.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nothing like a bit of confirmation bias, but to me that suggests that perhaps London, the worst affected place, is starting to see the affect of 'herd immunity'0 -
How busy is your hospital?Foxy said:
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.kamski said:
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Do you have a source for this figure?0 -
Is Cheltenham in the South West for these purposes?FrancisUrquhart said:Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped the CV tidal wave.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.0 -
The VE Day rom com A Royal Night Out is not a bad film imo. I imagine it will be shown on one channel or another.OldKingCole said:
I don't recall people singing anything particular around VE Day. There was a party in the Co-op hall down the road a few days afterwards and I think we sang God Save etc.IshmaelZ said:
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.Theuniondivvie said:Bet BJ will be psychologically incapable of not getting stuck into this.
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=20
I did have the measles on the day itself, so I wasn't outside. One of life's regrets.
0 -
You seem to be assuming that "people with comorbidities" are typically at death's door. This is simply wrong. People can live for decades with diabetes, for example.contrarian said:
If the case is bad enough but the case will almost certainly involve a host of other issues as well as Corona and you will probably be an old person.Malmesbury said:
Yes - hence "if you get it badly"contrarian said:
unless you are a very ill person, the 'you' is simply not 'you'. many people have no symptoms. If you are under 50 and healthy you are in very, very little danger.Malmesbury said:
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.contrarian said:
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.malcolmg said:
Incredibly dire.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
Short version - if it's bad enough to get you to hospital, you are in the sh%t.
You seem to think there are a host of otherwise healthy people under 50 being hospitalised with corona.
If what I have read is true, there are very very few.
I was diagnosed with an immune disorder when I was 15 (I'm now in my 30s), that puts me in the "at risk" group. So if I'd got it and died then I'd be one of your patients with "a host of other issues as well". But my life expectancy, prior to contracting COVID-19, was the same as it would have been if I'd been perfectly healthy. This is a condition that affects hundreds of thousands of people in the UK, at least half of which are under 50. And it's just one of many possible conditions.1 -
Oh wait...hold your papers...the proper placebo controlled trial is out later today.
https://twitter.com/bradloncar/status/1255478999675031555?s=200 -
Pulpstar said:
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
1 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52466471?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5ea977ce5c8cf7066bdf942f&Third of hospitalised Covid-19 patients in UK have died, study finds&2020-04-29T12:57:44.650Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:b72c9f95-a816-42fb-aa44-8f2e3588921a&pinned_post_asset_id=5ea977ce5c8cf7066bdf942f&pinned_post_type=sharekamski said:
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Do you have a source for this figure?0 -
Here is a piece of text the Kevin KcKenna wrote and had published in a national news paper, I have added the emphasisCarlottaVance said:
I always have a wee chuckle with my atheist chums when they deride the mere concept of spirituality yet have no problems with the cost of an international space programme looking for life beyond the stars. Or when they stress the random nature of creation and everything in it but can’t explain why the seasons fall in the same order year after year (but that’s another debate for another time).
Kevin McKenna can safely be ignored on any topic.4 -
How is that consistent with the number of deaths being only 13.5% of the number of people who have tested positive, though?Foxy said:
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.kamski said:
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Do you have a source for this figure?
I thought most of those tested were people who had been admitted to hospital.0 -
Busy in parts, quiet in others, like most. Leicester is well below the national average in case numbers.NerysHughes said:
How busy is your hospital?Foxy said:
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.kamski said:
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.kinabalu said:
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.malcolmg said:
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.kinabalu said:
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?eadric said:
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)Andy_JS said:
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Do you have a source for this figure?
Our surgical wards are quiet, but with the operating theatres being used as ICU, staffed by anaesthetists and Surgical nurses and Trainees, that is inevitable. It isn't possible to run normal services in those circumstances. Fewer DNAs in clinics this week though.0 -
You surely aren't suggesting he'd father a child a week?Charles said:are there no lengths BoJo won't go to to miss PMQ?
0 -
Not for want of trying, or so I understandMarqueeMark said:
You surely aren't suggesting he'd father a child a week?Charles said:are there no lengths BoJo won't go to to miss PMQ?
0 -
Spluttered through as the Spanish Influenza began to do its murderous thing I imagine.IshmaelZ said:
"Knees up Mother Brown" was an Armistice Day thing I believe.OldKingCole said:
I don't recall people singing anything particular around VE Day. There was a party in the Co-op hall down the road a few days afterwards and I think we sang God Save etc.IshmaelZ said:
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.Theuniondivvie said:Bet BJ will be psychologically incapable of not getting stuck into this.
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=20
I did have the measles on the day itself, so I wasn't outside. One of life's regrets.
I had a little bird
its name was Enza
I opened the window,
And in-flu-enza.0 -
@contrarian take heed!eadric said:The implications of this are a bit grim, economically
https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1255501767061786627?s=211 -
Guardian just released another piece all based on unnamed sources. Somebody is very busy briefing them.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/revealed-the-inside-story-of-uk-covid-19-coronavirus-crisis0 -
And the sun is out!Pulpstar said:
Looks like Devon is the place to be.FrancisUrquhart said:0
This discussion has been closed.