Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped the CV tidal wave.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.
Is Cheltenham in the South West for these purposes?
In adjacent Sweden news they keep finding extra deaths on April the 8th. Now up to 113. They are determined to make that the peak.
What are you saying?!
I'm lightly joshing.
But a mere 21 days after the 8th of April they are still finding new Covid deaths to add to the total. The Swedish data is very laggy. The 15th is now up to 110 deaths. A week ago 110 deaths would have been the highest single day total for Sweden.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
How is that consistent with the number of deaths being only 13.5% of the number of people who have tested positive, though?
I thought most of those tested were people who had been admitted to hospital.
It would seem that a lot of positive patients are not admitted.
My question would still be: is age only the main factor because most older people have health conditions?
I think raw age is the biggest factor - anecdotally of the few people I know with this the two men in their 50s were the hardest hit. One of who was fit by any standard - my less fit friend in his 50s was THE hardest hit though.
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
But your gripe is against how almost all of the developed world has responded to Covid-19.
So - yes - you are living up to your 'handle' on this one.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
How is that consistent with the number of deaths being only 13.5% of the number of people who have tested positive, though?
I thought most of those tested were people who had been admitted to hospital.
It would seem that a lot of positive patients are not admitted.
But I didn't think people were normally being tested unless they were admitted to hospital, before the last week or so. The one third figure would imply 60% of those testing positive weren't admitted.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
How busy is your hospital?
Busy in parts, quiet in others, like most. Leicester is well below the national average in case numbers.
Our surgical wards are quiet, but with the operating theatres being used as ICU, staffed by anaesthetists and Surgical nurses and Trainees, that is inevitable. It isn't possible to run normal services in those circumstances. Fewer DNAs in clinics this week though.
I have my third hospital telephone appointment tomorrow.
Pfizer Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said on Tuesday a coronavirus vaccine for emergency use could be ready by the autumn and for broader roll out by the end of 2020.
I think it is looking likely that a vaccine will be available by the end of this year, or if not then by the end of 2021. This is likely to give the government a problem if many people don't want to take it. How many people will be willing to be vaccinated? If half the population is willing to be vaccinated then R0 will be close to 1. Some people want a vaccine to be tested on prisoners first. Despite this we are still lucky that this time a vaccine is likely to be developed; we have had a warning that a worse disaster is possible.
Tested on prisoners? Are you serious, or is that an autocorrect of volunteers?
I am not serious, but I am repeating a comment, serious or not, that I saw today on the Daily Mail online edition. Many people there were worried about the vaccine (assuming that there is one). I feel sure that many people will be happy to take the vaccine, but some will avoid it.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
How is that consistent with the number of deaths being only 13.5% of the number of people who have tested positive, though?
I thought most of those tested were people who had been admitted to hospital.
It would seem that a lot of positive patients are not admitted.
But I didn't think people were normally being tested unless they were admitted to hospital, before the last week or so. The one third figure would imply 60% of those testing positive weren't admitted.
I see the daily all staff bulletin in my Trust. The numbers are updated daily and the ratio of discharges to deaths has been pretty constantly 2:1 for weeks.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Interesting, in my wife's (German) hospital I'm not sure how many Covid patients they have admitted, certainly at least dozens, only one death so far
Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped the CV tidal wave.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.
Is Cheltenham in the South West for these purposes?
Yes. SW overall is low despite Gloucestershire being moderately high.
In adjacent Sweden news they keep finding extra deaths on April the 8th. Now up to 113. They are determined to make that the peak.
What are you saying?!
I'm lightly joshing.
But a mere 21 days after the 8th of April they are still finding new Covid deaths to add to the total. The Swedish data is very laggy. The 15th is now up to 110 deaths. A week ago 110 deaths would have been the highest single day total for Sweden.
One of the big questions now, is exactly how laggy, and specifically how many more historical deaths they can "find" before we all agree that lockdown was necessary.
Flipping that round: it's probably not yet possible to draw any reasonable comparisons between countries, and will remain impossible until we've established just how different the reporting regimes between them actually are.
Here is a piece of text the Kevin KcKenna wrote and had published in a national news paper, I have added the emphasis
I always have a wee chuckle with my atheist chums when they deride the mere concept of spirituality yet have no problems with the cost of an international space programme looking for life beyond the stars. Or when they stress the random nature of creation and everything in it but can’t explain why the seasons fall in the same order year after year (but that’s another debate for another time).
Kevin McKenna can safely be ignored on any topic.
I'd like to know what work the ISS does to look "for life beyond the stars". That is, the stars go out to at least 13 billion years before you hit the starless void created just after the Big Bang. There's no suggestion that life was created spontaneously by the Big Bang in the void of space, at least none that I've heard of....
But hey, Scottish education might be different.
EDIT: Many apologies to HD 140283, whose age is ~14.5 ± 0.8 billion years (so at least 13.2 billion years)
Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped CV. I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.
Cornwall, apparently. has one of the lowest coronavirus infection rates in Europe. I chose the wrong place for my confinement
One source on Sage said there was also nervousness among their group that week, a feeling that the virus was getting out of control and they were not sure the politicians understood its exponential spread. The advice was being communicated, the source said, but they were told that Whitty and Vallance were having to cajole the politicians in the right direction, and there was “friction”.
Reflecting on the presence at Sage of Cummings and Warner, some attendees now say the group’s deliberations were affected by a sense of what could feasibly be done, with a government run by politicians to whom a lockdown looked unthinkable, although others say they were not. Then, that week, when stricter measures were needed, some say it was useful to have Cummings there, because they knew he would communicate that directly to Johnson.
I just don't believe 23 top egg-heads shit their load and start throwing their carefully researched models and papers out the windows, because Big Dom is in the room.
Sounds more like they are arse covering. Saying well if that nasty man wasn't there, I definitely would have told Witty what I thought, but I was too scared.
My experience of academic type settings where people disseminate ideas, it is actually very hard to get them to change course from their preferred view. They often see it as a personal slight on their research.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
How is that consistent with the number of deaths being only 13.5% of the number of people who have tested positive, though?
I thought most of those tested were people who had been admitted to hospital.
It would seem that a lot of positive patients are not admitted.
But I didn't think people were normally being tested unless they were admitted to hospital, before the last week or so. The one third figure would imply 60% of those testing positive weren't admitted.
I see the daily all staff bulletin in my Trust. The numbers are updated daily and the ratio of discharges to deaths has been pretty constantly 2:1 for weeks.
I'm not saying you're not right. Perhaps it's not right that most of those who have tested positive had been admitted. But that's what I thought the policy had been for most of the time - only to test people admitted to hospital.
Chinese ambassador to UK getting a bit fractious and irritated having a hard time on Hard Talk. It's clear he has been told to deflect any responsibility
Here is a piece of text the Kevin KcKenna wrote and had published in a national news paper, I have added the emphasis
I always have a wee chuckle with my atheist chums when they deride the mere concept of spirituality yet have no problems with the cost of an international space programme looking for life beyond the stars. Or when they stress the random nature of creation and everything in it but can’t explain why the seasons fall in the same order year after year (but that’s another debate for another time).
Kevin McKenna can safely be ignored on any topic.
Do you have the perceptioin that his expressed opinion (except, of course, on the subject of being Irish in Scotland) changes quite markedly depending on the newspaper for which he is writing? Or am I being unfair?
One source on Sage said there was also nervousness among their group that week, a feeling that the virus was getting out of control and they were not sure the politicians understood its exponential spread. The advice was being communicated, the source said, but they were told that Whitty and Vallance were having to cajole the politicians in the right direction, and there was “friction”.
Reflecting on the presence at Sage of Cummings and Warner, some attendees now say the group’s deliberations were affected by a sense of what could feasibly be done,
They were wanting deliberations of things that could unfeasibly have been done?
If restrictions where lifted and people started behaving as they did pre lock-down, maybe.
But people will not just go back to there behaveure as before so the R number will not go back to 3. If People are given the chance its more likely they will behave as they do in Sweden also quit a few Italians have are now removed/immune.
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
Well said - I can`t quite believe how high the stock market is. The economic catastrophe still is not fully understood by many. I think at some point the government will need to make it clear that they can`t keep covering earnings for much longer.
Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped the CV tidal wave.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.
Is Cheltenham in the South West for these purposes?
Yes. SW overall is low despite Gloucestershire being moderately high.
And take student-filled Exeter and Plymouth out the equation, and it would be rather difficult to find the virus in Devon and Cornwall.
Chinese ambassador to UK getting a bit fractious and irritated having a hard time on Hard Talk. It's clear he has been told to deflect any responsibility
I wonder what he thought he was getting into going on a show called Hard Talk?
Hmm, that's worrying. They are reporting around 20 cases in the Paris area, and they are worried that there might be a delayed effect in children. Tiny numbers at the moment, of course, but still..
Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped the CV tidal wave.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.
Is Cheltenham in the South West for these purposes?
Yes. SW overall is low despite Gloucestershire being moderately high.
And take student-filled Exeter and Plymouth out the equation, and it would be rather difficult to find the virus in Devon and Cornwall.
I am very surprised how little it appears to have affected Bristol. Ticks lots of the boxes for places you would expect to import it and provide a rich spreading ground.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Thanks Presumably the admitted to ITU ones are at least 50/50?
SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabriele d’Annunzio.
Ne me frego
There was a time when it was more important what a politician actually believed and what they actually did than whether they appeared to be "dull". Being "dull" should not rule someone out from political power, unfortunately it does so we are more likely to end up with a Boris or a Trump than an Attlee or a Roosevelt.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
How is that consistent with the number of deaths being only 13.5% of the number of people who have tested positive, though?
I thought most of those tested were people who had been admitted to hospital.
It would seem that a lot of positive patients are not admitted.
But I didn't think people were normally being tested unless they were admitted to hospital, before the last week or so. The one third figure would imply 60% of those testing positive weren't admitted.
I see the daily all staff bulletin in my Trust. The numbers are updated daily and the ratio of discharges to deaths has been pretty constantly 2:1 for weeks.
Covid-19 and the NHS: Russian Roulette with two chambers full.
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
Well said - I can`t quite believe how high the stock market is. The economic catastrophe still is not fully understood by many. I think at some point the government will need to make it clear that they can`t keep covering earnings for much longer.
Its not understood because the government has wrapped everybody in a gargantuan cuddly blanket of debt. For now.
To me that looks like the 'big ' drop is in London, with a slight smaller drop in the midlands, and the rest almost flat-Lining.
Nothing like a bit of confirmation bias, but to me that suggests that perhaps London, the worst affected place, is starting to see the affect of 'herd immunity'
Or just that it was hit first (and hardest) and therefore will be first to see the reductions come through
Still unlikely to be anywhere near enough people to have had it for herd immunity...
Chinese ambassador to UK getting a bit fractious and irritated having a hard time on Hard Talk. It's clear he has been told to deflect any responsibility
The deputy ambassador was on the Radio 4 Afternoon News a few days ago and was basically the same. China hadn't done anything wrong and everyone else had.
Hmm, that's worrying. They are reporting around 20 cases in the Paris area, and they are worried that there might be a delayed effect in children. Tiny numbers at the moment, of course, but still..
The reporting of those case has been grossly irresponsible.
In the Mail's disgraceful article, buried in the text was the little detail that some of these cases had tested negative for Coronavirus. Yes you read that right. Negative.
Indonesia reports a greater mortality in the 30 to 59 age group than in the over 60s.
Any link to that? (for more info, sample size, CIs)
Indonesia has far fewer over 60s than us, it strikes me as possible that over 60s in Indonesia are biased towards the better off (and perhaps wealthier immigrants). From World Bank, life expectancy at birth in 1960 (i.e. today's 60 year olds) was 47 years, so the current over 60 year olds may be quite atypical of the population as a whole.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Interesting, in my wife's (German) hospital I'm not sure how many Covid patients they have admitted, certainly at least dozens, only one death so far
I personally suspect the high UK mortality is due to the stay at home policy, so people are in a poor state when they get admitted.
My guess is that systems that admit, investigate and monitor patients get better overall results, and also reduce their transmission rate. It is a guess though.
SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabriele d’Annunzio.
Ne me frego
There was a time when it was more important what a politician actually believed and what they actually did than whether they appeared to be "dull". Being "dull" should not rule someone out from political power, unfortunately it does so we are more likely to end up with a Boris or a Trump than an Attlee or a Roosevelt.
Brits don’t want to be governed anymore; too boring. Bread and circuses is all that matters. We are going full-Berlusconi.
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
Well said - I can`t quite believe how high the stock market is. The economic catastrophe still is not fully understood by many. I think at some point the government will need to make it clear that they can`t keep covering earnings for much longer.
Disagreed. The stock market takes the future into account not just the present.
The economic catastrophe is temporary not permanent. The government won't need to keep covering earnings forever and at that point companies will be earning and stocks will be worth their value.
Hmm, that's worrying. They are reporting around 20 cases in the Paris area, and they are worried that there might be a delayed effect in children. Tiny numbers at the moment, of course, but still..
The reporting of those case has been grossly irresponsible.
In the Mail's disgraceful article, buried in the text was the little detail that some of these cases had tested negative for Coronavirus. Yes you read that right. Negative.
What's disgraceful about that? It's exactly what Matt Hancock said. The experts are unsure what is going on here. And of course, just because some children tested negative at the time of the test doesn't prove that there is no connection between past exposure to Covid-19 and the possible emergence of a new set of serious symptoms in children.
Indonesia reports a greater mortality in the 30 to 59 age group than in the over 60s.
Any link to that? (for more info, sample size, CIs)
Indonesia has far fewer over 60s than us, it strikes me as possible that over 60s in Indonesia are biased towards the better off (and perhaps wealthier immigrants). From World Bank, life expectancy at birth in 1960 (i.e. today's 60 year olds) was 47 years, so the current over 60 year olds may be quite atypical of the population as a whole.
Yes - link posted in my reply to @Pulpstar at 3.59.
It's an analysis of their known covid deaths to date.
Looking at the curve, it appears 80,000 deaths are possible in Wave 1.
How much did one extra unlocked-down week cost us? Could it be as much as half of that?
Indeed.
And yet France, Italy and Spain are likely to end up in a roughly similar place. This virus is persistent.
Yes. But not Germany. Nor AFAIK, California.
I can’t believe I’m writing this but it really does look as if SAGE advice will deliver around 40,000 unnecessary deaths via a mistaken intepretation the data - or, as the Guardian suggests - a belief that lockdown was politically unfeasible in the UK.
Is it just me or are the deaths today proportionately much worse in Scotland and Wales than England?
This isn't a nationalist point so please nobody jump on that but I'm curious why? Has there been a later peak there than in England?
You think Scots won't jump on "their PPE having been stolen by England"? Good luck....
This must be the sole reason for their change in fortunes. Not long ago, the Scots were telling us of their superior results fighting Covid-19 as against England.
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
I hate to break it to you but there is no easy solution to this. It is pretty much guaranteed that most of our living standards are going to decline, quite severely in many cases. It would have been no different if we had ignored lockdown completely - 12,000 BA jobs have not gone because of lockdown, they have gone because, globally, nobody is flying anymore.
Chinese ambassador to UK getting a bit fractious and irritated having a hard time on Hard Talk. It's clear he has been told to deflect any responsibility
The deputy ambassador was on the Radio 4 Afternoon News a few days ago and was basically the same. China hadn't done anything wrong and everyone else had.
Just trying to get thoughts straight. Between the 8th and 16th of April there was anywhere between 35-45 new ICU admissions in Sweden with Covid.
Betwen the 8th and 16th of April there were 85-113 deaths per day of Covid.
So 2-3 times as many people were dying of Covid as being admitted to ICU on any particular day.
Is there stats for UK/England for ICU admissions?
The daily Deaths for COVID is Sweden includes the most bored definition of any I am aware of:
If you test positive for COVID and die of any reason in the next 30 days you are counted as one of those numbers, so it could be you die a week later or cancer, 2 weeks later of kidney faliear or 4 weeks later in a car accident, (I don't think any of the last one have happened, but hopefully you get the point.
In addition all the people that die without a test e.g. in care homes, are being added to the list if the doctors put it down as a suspected or possible reason or contributing factor, a week ago 42% of deaths where in care homes.
A week or so ago the New York times looked at exes Deaths above the normal, and found that Sweden was the only place reporting more COVID deaths, than the difference between normal number of deaths and deaths this year.
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
Well said - I can`t quite believe how high the stock market is. The economic catastrophe still is not fully understood by many. I think at some point the government will need to make it clear that they can`t keep covering earnings for much longer.
Disagreed. The stock market takes the future into account not just the present.
The economic catastrophe is temporary not permanent. The government won't need to keep covering earnings forever and at that point companies will be earning and stocks will be worth their value.
The catastrophic conditions are temporary. But the economic damage will be pretty much permanent. This crash will leave nasty scars for a generation
And the stock market is down 20% which represents that.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Looking at the curve, it appears 80,000 deaths are possible in Wave 1.
How much did one extra unlocked-down week cost us? Could it be as much as half of that?
I think the doubling time in mid-March was about half a week, which would imply that a one-week delay in imposing the lockdown would cause a fourfold increase in the number of deaths. 60,000 deaths in exchange for a one-week delay.
Is it just me or are the deaths today proportionately much worse in Scotland and Wales than England?
This isn't a nationalist point so please nobody jump on that but I'm curious why? Has there been a later peak there than in England?
You think Scots won't jump on "their PPE having been stolen by England"? Good luck....
This must be the sole reason for their change in fortunes. Not long ago, the Scots were telling us of their superior results fighting Covid-19 as against England.
Then someone looked in their care homes.
I don't want it to be a partisan national issue, but there is a very real difference. Proportional to population today's figures in both Scotland and Wales are roughly double those in England.
If it was lower earlier then a later peak could be the answer? Though how has the later peak come to happen given we've been in lockdown?
Looking at the curve, it appears 80,000 deaths are possible in Wave 1.
How much did one extra unlocked-down week cost us? Could it be as much as half of that?
I think the doubling time in mid-March was about half a week, which would imply that a one-week delay in imposing the lockdown would cause a fourfold increase in the number of deaths. 60,000 deaths in exchange for a one-week delay.
And this is generously crediting the government with only being late by a week
Hmm, that's worrying. They are reporting around 20 cases in the Paris area, and they are worried that there might be a delayed effect in children. Tiny numbers at the moment, of course, but still..
The reporting of those case has been grossly irresponsible.
In the Mail's disgraceful article, buried in the text was the little detail that some of these cases had tested negative for Coronavirus. Yes you read that right. Negative.
Don't around 25% of people with CV-19 get incorrect false negatives?
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
I hate to break it to you but there is no easy solution to this. It is pretty much guaranteed that most of our living standards are going to decline, quite severely in many cases. It would have been no different if we had ignored lockdown completely - 12,000 BA jobs have not gone because of lockdown, they have gone because, globally, nobody is flying anymore.
The number flying this week is 1% of the number this same week last year.
Indonesia reports a greater mortality in the 30 to 59 age group than in the over 60s.
Any link to that? (for more info, sample size, CIs)
Indonesia has far fewer over 60s than us, it strikes me as possible that over 60s in Indonesia are biased towards the better off (and perhaps wealthier immigrants). From World Bank, life expectancy at birth in 1960 (i.e. today's 60 year olds) was 47 years, so the current over 60 year olds may be quite atypical of the population as a whole.
I think about 10% of the Indonesian population is over 60, about 28 million people.
Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
Hmm, that's worrying. They are reporting around 20 cases in the Paris area, and they are worried that there might be a delayed effect in children. Tiny numbers at the moment, of course, but still..
The reporting of those case has been grossly irresponsible.
In the Mail's disgraceful article, buried in the text was the little detail that some of these cases had tested negative for Coronavirus. Yes you read that right. Negative.
There have been many cases of false negatives with coronavirus testing. I wouldn't put too much stock in that.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Interesting, in my wife's (German) hospital I'm not sure how many Covid patients they have admitted, certainly at least dozens, only one death so far
I personally suspect the high UK mortality is due to the stay at home policy, so people are in a poor state when they get admitted.
My guess is that systems that admit, investigate and monitor patients get better overall results, and also reduce their transmission rate. It is a guess though.
This whole thing does get a person thinking about questions that would not normally occur to them. For example, the fact that one third of UK covid hospitalizations die - it has made me wonder what in normal times the % of ALL admissions to hospital (for all causes) by AMBULANCE end up sadly not making it?
I have no clue. Is it materially different to 33% and if so in which direction?
FWIW, my totally instinctive and non-informed hunch would be 15%.
Indonesia reports a greater mortality in the 30 to 59 age group than in the over 60s.
Any link to that? (for more info, sample size, CIs)
Indonesia has far fewer over 60s than us, it strikes me as possible that over 60s in Indonesia are biased towards the better off (and perhaps wealthier immigrants). From World Bank, life expectancy at birth in 1960 (i.e. today's 60 year olds) was 47 years, so the current over 60 year olds may be quite atypical of the population as a whole.
Yes - link posted in my reply to @Pulpstar at 3.59.
It's an analysis of their known covid deaths to date.
Thanks - as noted by others, these seem to be absolute numbers of deaths, 30-59 has a few more deaths than 60-79, but 60-79 very likely has a much smaller population.
Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped the CV tidal wave.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.
Is Cheltenham in the South West for these purposes?
Yes. SW overall is low despite Gloucestershire being moderately high.
And take student-filled Exeter and Plymouth out the equation, and it would be rather difficult to find the virus in Devon and Cornwall.
I am very surprised how little it appears to have affected Bristol. Ticks lots of the boxes for places you would expect to import it and provide a rich spreading ground.
You mean it's full of crusty trustafarians who think life's rules don't apply to them?
Hmm, that's worrying. They are reporting around 20 cases in the Paris area, and they are worried that there might be a delayed effect in children. Tiny numbers at the moment, of course, but still..
The reporting of those case has been grossly irresponsible.
In the Mail's disgraceful article, buried in the text was the little detail that some of these cases had tested negative for Coronavirus. Yes you read that right. Negative.
What's disgraceful about that? It's exactly what Matt Hancock said. The experts are unsure what is going on here. And of course, just because some children tested negative at the time of the test doesn't prove that there is no connection between past exposure to Covid-19 and the possible emergence of a new set of serious symptoms in children.
Unlike you, Richard. Correlation, causation, Daily Mail speculation, etc. Plus the numbers are minute. I bet if they did a test on people who (would) have gone to hospital with bee stings (older, isolated, likely to be outside) there would be some connection with Covid-19.
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
I think both EW & SC have had serious problems with Care Homes and testing - though the latter appears to being sorted out in EW. Guernsey, which has managed to contain Covid-19 has seen most of its deaths in Care Homes. Given this virus appears to attack on multiple fronts its not surprising those with weakest immunity are most vulnerable - but I think when this is all reviewed Care Homes protection will emerge as a serious lacunae across the board.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Interesting, in my wife's (German) hospital I'm not sure how many Covid patients they have admitted, certainly at least dozens, only one death so far
I personally suspect the high UK mortality is due to the stay at home policy, so people are in a poor state when they get admitted.
My guess is that systems that admit, investigate and monitor patients get better overall results, and also reduce their transmission rate. It is a guess though.
This whole thing does get a person thinking about questions that would not normally occur to them. For example, the fact that one third of UK covid hospitalizations die - it has made me wonder what in normal times the % of ALL admissions to hospital (for all causes) by AMBULANCE end up sadly not making it?
I have no clue. Is it materially different to 33% and if so in which direction?
FWIW, my totally instinctive and non-informed hunch would be 15%.
Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
Perhaps the explanation is that informal (self-imposed) lockdown began earlier in the UK, especially in London.
Looking at the curve, it appears 80,000 deaths are possible in Wave 1.
How much did one extra unlocked-down week cost us? Could it be as much as half of that?
Indeed.
And yet France, Italy and Spain are likely to end up in a roughly similar place. This virus is persistent.
Yes. But not Germany. Nor AFAIK, California.
I can’t believe I’m writing this but it really does look as if SAGE advice will deliver around 40,000 unnecessary deaths via a mistaken intepretation the data - or, as the Guardian suggests - a belief that lockdown was politically unfeasible in the UK.
Agreed. The ironic thing is that brits, it turns out, are keener on lockdown than anyone else. So SAGE‘s alleged belief was as wrong as can be.
Was SAGE's opinion the result of political interference? The scientists said 'lockdown' but the political people said 'not acceptable'? Contrary to myth, the Brits, especially the English are quite a biddable lot. Not quite so sure about the Scots etc.
Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
Death rate is actually pretty flat if you take the weekend effects out by looking at the 7 day average (look at the graph for New Daily Deaths Comparisons). One could just as well argue that the Scots got the death rate increase under control earlier but it's flatlining [edited]. But I don't really know!
Someone below (can't relocate it, sorry) was claiming a double the English death rate pro rata below. But the figures are nothing like that level of difference. There is (now) a small excess over the English figure, but I don't know enough about the procedural and recording differences which could well explain ity.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
That is grim. I wonder if the UK should be admitting patients who are less ill (or earlier to put it another way)
That is a point gaining traction. Are we too late with the medical intervention?
Or to put it another way - would our outcomes be significantly better if the precautionary approach taken with patient Boris Johnson was extended to the rest of the population?
Comments
But a mere 21 days after the 8th of April they are still finding new Covid deaths to add to the total. The Swedish data is very laggy. The 15th is now up to 110 deaths. A week ago 110 deaths would have been the highest single day total for Sweden.
Somewhere along the way, you must have shot God's dog....
So - yes - you are living up to your 'handle' on this one.
Fine, so far.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/demain/sante/une-maladie-peut-etre-liee-au-coronavirus-touche-des-enfants-au-royaume-uni-et-en-france-20200428
Betwen the 8th and 16th of April there were 85-113 deaths per day of Covid.
So 2-3 times as many people were dying of Covid as being admitted to ICU on any particular day.
Is there stats for UK/England for ICU admissions?
Indonesia reports a greater mortality in the 30 to 59 age group than in the over 60s.
Flipping that round: it's probably not yet possible to draw any reasonable comparisons between countries, and will remain impossible until we've established just how different the reporting regimes between them actually are.
It is the US quango in charge of research in this area.
But hey, Scottish education might be different.
EDIT: Many apologies to HD 140283, whose age is ~14.5 ± 0.8 billion years (so at least 13.2 billion years)
Reflecting on the presence at Sage of Cummings and Warner, some attendees now say the group’s deliberations were affected by a sense of what could feasibly be done, with a government run by politicians to whom a lockdown looked unthinkable, although others say they were not. Then, that week, when stricter measures were needed, some say it was useful to have Cummings there, because they knew he would communicate that directly to Johnson.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/revealed-the-inside-story-of-uk-covid-19-coronavirus-crisis
I just don't believe 23 top egg-heads shit their load and start throwing their carefully researched models and papers out the windows, because Big Dom is in the room.
Sounds more like they are arse covering. Saying well if that nasty man wasn't there, I definitely would have told Witty what I thought, but I was too scared.
My experience of academic type settings where people disseminate ideas, it is actually very hard to get them to change course from their preferred view. They often see it as a personal slight on their research.
But people will not just go back to there behaveure as before so the R number will not go back to 3. If People are given the chance its more likely they will behave as they do in Sweden also quit a few Italians have are now removed/immune.
You do not mess with London.
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How much did one extra unlocked-down week cost us? Could it be as much as half of that?
Had a very good birthday on my 80th, though.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/life/2020/04/29/indonesias-men-more-susceptible-to-covid-19-than-women-health-ministry.html
Looks like raw numbers not adjusted for population of age groups.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/28/30-to-59-year-olds-make-up-highest-number-of-covid-19-deaths-in-indonesia-health-ministry.html
Still unlikely to be anywhere near enough people to have had it for herd immunity...
In the Mail's disgraceful article, buried in the text was the little detail that some of these cases had tested negative for Coronavirus. Yes you read that right. Negative.
The ambassador and his deputy will have their instructions and it's pretty obvious what they were always going to be.
Indonesia has far fewer over 60s than us, it strikes me as possible that over 60s in Indonesia are biased towards the better off (and perhaps wealthier immigrants). From World Bank, life expectancy at birth in 1960 (i.e. today's 60 year olds) was 47 years, so the current over 60 year olds may be quite atypical of the population as a whole.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1255508405877223424?s=20
That's Parent'll leave.
This is *Parental leave*
Totally different. Reformed character 'n' all that.
My guess is that systems that admit, investigate and monitor patients get better overall results, and also reduce their transmission rate. It is a guess though.
This isn't a nationalist point so please nobody jump on that but I'm curious why? Has there been a later peak there than in England?
We are going full-Berlusconi.
The economic catastrophe is temporary not permanent. The government won't need to keep covering earnings forever and at that point companies will be earning and stocks will be worth their value.
It's an analysis of their known covid deaths to date.
I can’t believe I’m writing this but it really does look as if SAGE advice will deliver around 40,000 unnecessary deaths via a mistaken intepretation the data - or, as the Guardian suggests - a belief that lockdown was politically unfeasible in the UK.
This must be the sole reason for their change in fortunes. Not long ago, the Scots were telling us of their superior results fighting Covid-19 as against England.
Then someone looked in their care homes.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/690-new-coronavirus-cases-take-singapore-tally-past-15000-mark
If you test positive for COVID and die of any reason in the next 30 days you are counted as one of those numbers, so it could be you die a week later or cancer, 2 weeks later of kidney faliear or 4 weeks later in a car accident, (I don't think any of the last one have happened, but hopefully you get the point.
In addition all the people that die without a test e.g. in care homes, are being added to the list if the doctors put it down as a suspected or possible reason or contributing factor, a week ago 42% of deaths where in care homes.
A week or so ago the New York times looked at exes Deaths above the normal, and found that Sweden was the only place reporting more COVID deaths, than the difference between normal number of deaths and deaths this year.
Scars can be lived with.
If it was lower earlier then a later peak could be the answer? Though how has the later peak come to happen given we've been in lockdown?
This site (with no political bone to chew) seems to suggest a later peak, andf also slightly smaller total death rate overall pro rata in total.
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/satellite-images-of-luxury-boats-further-suggest-north-koreas-kim-at-favoured-villa
I have no clue. Is it materially different to 33% and if so in which direction?
FWIW, my totally instinctive and non-informed hunch would be 15%.
Whoever is behind that policy has caused countless deaths.
https://qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/qhc/26/8/613.full.pdf
(within 30 days, so some of those would be discharged alive)
Contrary to myth, the Brits, especially the English are quite a biddable lot. Not quite so sure about the Scots etc.
Someone below (can't relocate it, sorry) was claiming a double the English death rate pro rata below. But the figures are nothing like that level of difference. There is (now) a small excess over the English figure, but I don't know enough about the procedural and recording differences which could well explain ity.
Or to put it another way - would our outcomes be significantly better if the precautionary approach taken with patient Boris Johnson was extended to the rest of the population?