SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.
Ne me frego
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury. If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull on its own will not do the job. Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.
And yet none of the PPE statistics or facts quoted in the programme are disputed.
We had a critically low stock of gowns but bought none for our stockpile
The programme is not acceptable by any reasonable standards of balance and should be investigated by Ofcom. When will the BBC learn
And as for PPE Germany now admit they are in a crisis of supply
Suppression of the free press, what will Tories think of next. We do not like criticism so shut it down. What next, are the brown shirts being ironed and the boots polished.
Not at all. Balanced free press and this weeks panorama was far from that
Anyone who thinks the UK has a balanced press is not right in the head , only in their thinking.
"When Norway’s public health experts began looking into the backgrounds of those infected by coronavirus, they made a startling discovery: people born in Somalia have infection rates more than 10 times above the national average."
It is such a small number, I would be concerned about "sampling issues". A very small community in Norway, I am going to guess many live in the same area*, go to the same Mosque, same shops selling African produce etc etc etc.
* I believe this is a complaint in Nordic countries that when people get refuge, they get to pick where they live and of course they choose where all the others from their home country reside. Which in turn can causes issues of ghetto-isation, more difficult to integrate.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
This is the most confusing aspect of all of this. Italy crashed, Spain crashed, NYC crashed, Paris crashed. We didn't, despite lower capacity (Ferguson said two hospitals in London hit absolute max for a day or two, but that was it), and Sweden despite having even lower than UK have managed fine.
I haven't heard anybody give a good reason why. There is no evidence of Boris the Butcher ripping away CPAP masks or ventilators from fit oldies, in the way the Italians had to do. But we have had deaths in the same range as a country / city, whose healthcare system had crashed.
The UK is by a distance the best performing large European country. France, for example, has three times as many ICU beds in operation
Why? Are obese Brits just dying quicker, vacating beds? Are braver Brits choosing to suffer stoically at home?
Once this is done, god willing, the data crunching and analysis will be fascinating, albeit macabre
The NHS simply stopped treating other illnesses. Look at the estimates on cancer. Never mind NHS workers. Its the poor wretches dying needlessly of other illnesses whose families deserve 60 grand.
That may be true, but it’s not the point I was making. We have far fewer covid19 cases in ICU than comparable nations. The explanation, whatever it is, would be illuminating
There's anecdotal evidence that the useless 111 service is advising people to stay home for too long so that people are too ill to survive by the time they make it to hospital.
Apparently in Germany, they test people in the community for Coronavirus, and can then do follow-up visits on identified cases to monitor people's condition and hospitalise those that need treatment.
Perhaps the British are showing that they're still as stoic as previous generations (notable exceptions aside), but being led by donkeys again it is killing them.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
How would we ever know it is first time in the UK given they fiddle the numbers in England and never include them , you have to try and unpick them a month later from ONS. Easy fiddle rather than take it on the chin as Boris said.
"Never include them". That pesky Westminster Government looking to hide the figures by releasing them through a that shadowy secretive body, the Office for National Statistics.
I think English 7 day cumulative deaths are going to settle at 400 per day for a while. The trend doesn't seem to be budging from that baseline.
Deaths look like they are down 30% from last week to me
In general, the trend in the numbers is that the bulk of daily number is the day before. So for today
28th 96 27th 148 26th 42
etc
148 is the lowest this has been in a long time
What does this suggest?
I had another look at the data.
The second day of data is between 40-50% of the final, stable number with good consistency across the data. Presumably this is from the reporting process times.
Which *suggests* that the final number for the 27th will be in the range 300-370
SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.
Ne me frego
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury. If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull on its own will not do the job. Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.
How do we know? He's not there atm and anyway I thought government was by cabinet?
SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.
Ne me frego
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury. If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull on its own will not do the job. Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.
SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.
Ne me frego
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury. If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull on its own will not do the job. Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.
Indeed. We're on the flamboyantly (!) competent road to the worst Covid-19 outcome in Europe.
"When Norway’s public health experts began looking into the backgrounds of those infected by coronavirus, they made a startling discovery: people born in Somalia have infection rates more than 10 times above the national average."
It is such a small number, I would be concerned about "sampling issues". A very small community in Norway, I am going to guess many live in the same area*, go to the same Mosque, same shops selling African produce etc etc etc.
* I believe this is a complaint in Nordic countries that when people get refuge, they get to pick where they live and of course they choose where all the others from their home country reside. Which in turn can causes issues of ghetto-isation, more difficult to integrate.
That might be the issue, or part of it, but there is plenty of other evidence (albeit in very noisy data) that racial background is an important element of differential risk. Clearly it will need proper research to disentangle what exactly is going on here, but it would not be at all surprising if there were an underlying genetic reason for much or some of the disparities. After all, we know that there are significant genetically-based differences between races (and national populations) in susceptibility to other diseases (cystic fibrosis, sickle-cell anaemia, autoimmune diseases, etc).
That is an interesting paper. Age was a very strong risk factor even when all known co morbidities were adjusted for. Being fit elderly doesn't seem to help much.
Scary mortality for disease severe enough for admission, but without community testing it is very hard to know whether there are 10 non admitted for every admission. We really do not have much idea of the numbers. This cartoon summarises our problem well:
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Incredibly dire.
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
Guardian or Times?
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.
All papers are partisan but you just don't notice it in those publications which reflect your views.
That's very true. but the Telegraph is a million miles from the sort of quality journalism I read 50 yrs ago as a teenager, and I have no idea what it wants to say, I guess neither do the Barclay Bros after they lost. I think they are trying to flog the paper. So by elimination, not wanting to read the tabloids, the Mail is appalling, and forgetting left wing media , one is left with the Times that isn't exactly Tory friendly, but the journalism is very good.
How would we ever know it is first time in the UK given they fiddle the numbers in England and never include them , you have to try and unpick them a month later from ONS. Easy fiddle rather than take it on the chin as Boris said.
"Never include them". That pesky Westminster Government looking to hide the figures by releasing them through a that shadowy secretive body, the Office for National Statistics.
Never change, Malc, you're a gem.
And hide them on a slideshow presented each day from No.10 and broadcast on every television news channel...
Then put the slideshow and data on a hidden website -
Sir Keir Starmer’s mother in law had a nasty accident and later passed away during the latter stages of the Labour leadership campaign. He took a load of time off, suspended his campaign, missed one set of hustings and sent a replacement to another.
Was this ok?
Would the Boris haters be criticising Sir Keir if he had took the same decision, to be with his family in their time of need, if it had happened while he were PM?
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
I don't think it an accurate measure though. A quick bit of Google research suggests a an average EVD case fatality rate of around 50%, which is more than 10 times more than CV19. If a disease (any disease) is serious enough for hospitalisation then there is an elevated chance of mortality in that specific case.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Incredibly dire.
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
Life expectancy of such people, even with ‘worst case’ profiles (eg obese smokers), are of the order of five years or more – these people would probably not have died (without COVID-19) anytime soon.
Pfizer Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said on Tuesday a coronavirus vaccine for emergency use could be ready by the autumn and for broader roll out by the end of 2020.
I think it is looking likely that a vaccine will be available by the end of this year, or if not then by the end of 2021. This is likely to give the government a problem if many people don't want to take it. How many people will be willing to be vaccinated? If half the population is willing to be vaccinated then R0 will be close to 1. Some people want a vaccine to be tested on prisoners first. Despite this we are still lucky that this time a vaccine is likely to be developed; we have had a warning that a worse disaster is possible.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Incredibly dire.
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.
Pfizer Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said on Tuesday a coronavirus vaccine for emergency use could be ready by the autumn and for broader roll out by the end of 2020.
I think it is looking likely that a vaccine will be available by the end of this year, or if not then by the end of 2021. This is likely to give the government a problem if many people don't want to take it. How many people will be willing to be vaccinated? If half the population is willing to be vaccinated then R0 will be close to 1. Some people want a vaccine to be tested on prisoners first. Despite this we are still lucky that this time a vaccine is likely to be developed; we have had a warning that a worse disaster is possible.
Tested on prisoners? Are you serious, or is that an autocorrect of volunteers?
“The EU and Mexico started the negotiations for this new, modernised agreement in May 2016. They reached an agreement in principle two years later, in April 2018, leaving for further discussion some outstanding technical issues. Those are now fully agreed.“
So by that metric we should expect a UK-EU FTA in 2023 or thereabouts.
Leaving aside any questions on whether it's realistic to assume that the timeline could be replicated even for that "simple and bare bones" FTA, it might be pertinent to ask what exactly is in that "simple and bare bones" FTA and what exactly it will deliver.
Would it be possible for Airbus to manufacture airplane wings in Wales, or for car manufacturers to produce components in the UK, and move these things across the borders in the context of just-in-time supply lines? No. Would that FTA allow the chemical, pharma, tech, services industries to sell their goods and services across the borders? No. Would that FTA allow British farmers and fishermen to export their products to the EU? No.
The kind of FTA to make any of that possible would be neither "simple" nor "bare bones" and would presumably require much more time, and, of course, a much, much higher level of regulatory alignment, with all that entails, to be negotiated.
If it remains a choice between what's currently on offer & WTO, then WTO is a no brainer. The EU will end up with their Singapore on Thames.
Pfizer Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said on Tuesday a coronavirus vaccine for emergency use could be ready by the autumn and for broader roll out by the end of 2020.
I think it is looking likely that a vaccine will be available by the end of this year, or if not then by the end of 2021. This is likely to give the government a problem if many people don't want to take it. How many people will be willing to be vaccinated? If half the population is willing to be vaccinated then R0 will be close to 1. Some people want a vaccine to be tested on prisoners first. Despite this we are still lucky that this time a vaccine is likely to be developed; we have had a warning that a worse disaster is possible.
Tested on prisoners? Are you serious, or is that an autocorrect of volunteers?
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Incredibly dire.
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.
unless you are a very ill person, the 'you' is simply not 'you'. many people have no symptoms. If you are under 50 and healthy you are in very, very little danger.
“The EU and Mexico started the negotiations for this new, modernised agreement in May 2016. They reached an agreement in principle two years later, in April 2018, leaving for further discussion some outstanding technical issues. Those are now fully agreed.“
So by that metric we should expect a UK-EU FTA in 2023 or thereabouts.
Leaving aside any questions on whether it's realistic to assume that the timeline could be replicated even for that "simple and bare bones" FTA, it might be pertinent to ask what exactly is in that "simple and bare bones" FTA and what exactly it will deliver.
Would it be possible for Airbus to manufacture airplane wings in Wales, or for car manufacturers to produce components in the UK, and move these things across the borders in the context of just-in-time supply lines? No. Would that FTA allow the chemical, pharma, tech, services industries to sell their goods and services across the borders? No. Would that FTA allow British farmers and fishermen to export their products to the EU? No.
The kind of FTA to make any of that possible would be neither "simple" nor "bare bones" and would presumably require much more time, and, of course, a much, much higher level of regulatory alignment, with all that entails, to be negotiated.
If it remains a choice between what's currently on offer & WTO, then WTO is a no brainer. The EU will end up with their Singapore on Thames.
Based on what Barnier was saying a few days ago the trade talks should end in June and we should have six months to transition to WTO.
Once the EU decides we aren't a supplicant state and they don't have a divine right to set our laws or take our fish then we can talk again.
“The EU and Mexico started the negotiations for this new, modernised agreement in May 2016. They reached an agreement in principle two years later, in April 2018, leaving for further discussion some outstanding technical issues. Those are now fully agreed.“
So by that metric we should expect a UK-EU FTA in 2023 or thereabouts.
Leaving aside any questions on whether it's realistic to assume that the timeline could be replicated even for that "simple and bare bones" FTA, it might be pertinent to ask what exactly is in that "simple and bare bones" FTA and what exactly it will deliver.
Would it be possible for Airbus to manufacture airplane wings in Wales, or for car manufacturers to produce components in the UK, and move these things across the borders in the context of just-in-time supply lines? No. Would that FTA allow the chemical, pharma, tech, services industries to sell their goods and services across the borders? No. Would that FTA allow British farmers and fishermen to export their products to the EU? No.
The kind of FTA to make any of that possible would be neither "simple" nor "bare bones" and would presumably require much more time, and, of course, a much, much higher level of regulatory alignment, with all that entails, to be negotiated.
If it remains a choice between what's currently on offer & WTO, then WTO is a no brainer. The EU will end up with their Singapore on Thames.
Or Buenos Aries in the Puddle...
We already had Singapore on Thames, that was what Leaverstan resented.
"Windsor and Maidenhead council could become first in country to file for bankruptcy as local authorities faces £5billion black hole due to coronavirus crisis"
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Incredibly dire.
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.
unless you are a very ill person, the 'you' is simply not 'you'. many people have no symptoms. If you are under 50 and healthy you are in very, very little danger.
Yes - hence "if you get it badly"
Short version - if it's bad enough to get you to hospital, you are in the sh%t.
SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.
Ne me frego
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury. If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull on its own will not do the job. Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.
You mean Scotland. I assume. Not the UK as a whole.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
I don't think it an accurate measure though. A quick bit of Google research suggests a an average EVD case fatality rate of around 50%, which is more than 10 times more than CV19. If a disease (any disease) is serious enough for hospitalisation then there is an elevated chance of mortality in that specific case.
It is accurate on its terms but yes it's misleading to say it means that Covid is as bad as Ebola. It very much isn't. But "serious Covid" (defined as needing hospital) is on this data a vicious illness indeed. That 33% will be nearer 40% when the current cases work through. So, say you have it, you call an ambulance, they come and get you - at this point (here in the UK) you only have a slightly better than 50/50 chance of ever seeing home again. Caveat, we are all a stat of one, but still, that rather shocked me. Perhaps I haven't been paying sufficient attention.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
SKS open goal with Panorama highlighting the many PPE failings.
Misses
Its a throw in
I did worry that about Starmer (and I he's clearly a very intelligent principled guy) is that he's just dull. No ones going to go over the top for him, he's not going to get anyone every fired up and inspired.
He also seems to lack the 'common touch' of emotion and connectivity. He just doesn't 'move' you.
He is literally the dullest politician in a generation. I can’t remember anyone more boring. He makes David Miliband look like Gabrielle d’Annunzio.
Ne me frego
Dull can work very well - but only if you have damning evidence to lay before the jury. If you just don't have very much to say, then dull becomes excruciating.
You would have thought that if dull is going to work against anyone it would be Boris, especially if his gloss is punctured ( @kle4 does that work?) or he is perceived simply to be too big a character to be PM for the circumstances and ends up with people laughing at not with him.
Charismatic leaders can brush lots off but not some tangible failure, whatever that may be - trailing in last in Europe in C-19, or somesuch who knows.
In that case, people might be rushing to dull. Don't forget people were in the mood for Boris after....Theresa DULL May.
Dull on its own will not do the job. Dull plus substance might.
(And you could tarnish gloss; muddy it; discolour it But you'd puncture or scratch, even delaminate, a glossy veneer.)
Dull vs flamboyant incompetent twat surely has a fighting chance.
Not really. We are beyond the point of wanting dull competence in our leaders.
In the attention deficit modern world, with media both old and new shouting to try to get attention, flamboyant incompetence wins every time electorally.
Thankfully right now we are at the rare point where the stars align and we are lucky enough to have flamboyant competence.
You mean Scotland. I assume. Not the UK as a whole.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Incredibly dire.
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.
Need to clarify your post here. First off, it has not (yet) killed "orders of magnitude more" than regular flu. And has not yet killed more people than have been killed by flus in bad years.
Second, we went for a lockdown, and that looks like it might have worked (timing issues mean that it is not certain); while Sweden went for a less stringent lockdown and again, we don't know if it worked. Whatever worked means in those two contexts.
So I'm not sure your post really proves anything. Is it more virulent than bad flu epidemics? No idea. When we see that tens of thousands of people died in 1968, do we know in what way that differed, or what different mode of treatment was offered to those suffering from C-19?
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Incredibly dire.
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.
unless you are a very ill person, the 'you' is simply not 'you'. many people have no symptoms. If you are under 50 and healthy you are in very, very little danger.
Yes - hence "if you get it badly"
Short version - if it's bad enough to get you to hospital, you are in the sh%t.
If the case is bad enough but the case will almost certainly involve a host of other issues as well as Corona and you will probably be an old person.
You seem to think there are a host of otherwise healthy people under 50 being hospitalised with corona.
If what I have read is true, there are very very few.
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.
I don't recall people singing anything particular around VE Day. There was a party in the Co-op hall down the road a few days afterwards and I think we sang God Save etc.
I did have the measles on the day itself, so I wasn't outside. One of life's regrets.
I saw that but changed my settings to "United Kingdom trends" and it wasn't there anymore. Looking at the tweets with the hashtag it appears to relate to the decision to relax the lockdown in Lagos from 4 May.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Once thing I haven't looked at in Sweden is ratio of Intensive Care admissions vs Deaths compared to other countries.
From eyeballing it looks like they have quite a high ratio of admissions to deaths (as in very few ICU cases compared to number of dead) but I never trust my lying eyes.
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.
I don't recall people singing anything particular around VE Day. There was a party in the Co-op hall down the road a few days afterwards and I think we sang God Save etc.
I did have the measles on the day itself, so I wasn't outside. One of life's regrets.
"Knees up Mother Brown" was an Armistice Day thing I believe.
I dont hate the free press btw. I am just appalled about how they get so much wrong.
I am justv reduced by elimination to reading the only good paper out there and uts not exactly govt friendly
Guardian or Times?
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.
All papers are partisan but you just don't notice it in those publications which reflect your views.
That is true but I read and have read the Graun quite regularly for some time (or used to) and I discerned a change after the GE.
It’s because, once Boris got a big majority, Brexit became inevitable. So Remainerism reached the final stage of its life cycle: a perpetual shriek of impotent loathing, which will very slowly fade over the aeons, like the Echo of Creation.
The guardian is a reliable source of this peculiar sound
Bit like Lady Theodosia Bryan wailing as a ghost through out all eternity, then....
Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped the CV tidal wave.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.
To me that looks like the 'big ' drop is in London, with a slight smaller drop in the midlands, and the rest almost flat-Lining.
Nothing like a bit of confirmation bias, but to me that suggests that perhaps London, the worst affected place, is starting to see the affect of 'herd immunity'
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Despite all the poshos and celebs escaping London for their second homes and how many oldies retire down there, the South West region does seem to have really escaped the CV tidal wave.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.
Is Cheltenham in the South West for these purposes?
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.
I don't recall people singing anything particular around VE Day. There was a party in the Co-op hall down the road a few days afterwards and I think we sang God Save etc.
I did have the measles on the day itself, so I wasn't outside. One of life's regrets.
The VE Day rom com A Royal Night Out is not a bad film imo. I imagine it will be shown on one channel or another.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Incredibly dire.
The people who are hospitalised mostly suffer from very serious health issues anyway and so its not really surprising many don;t respond.
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
That is whole point of why we are in lockdown - this thing kills orders of magnitude more than regular "flus". And there is no cure - just attempts to keep you alive, if you get it badly, while you get through having it.
unless you are a very ill person, the 'you' is simply not 'you'. many people have no symptoms. If you are under 50 and healthy you are in very, very little danger.
Yes - hence "if you get it badly"
Short version - if it's bad enough to get you to hospital, you are in the sh%t.
If the case is bad enough but the case will almost certainly involve a host of other issues as well as Corona and you will probably be an old person.
You seem to think there are a host of otherwise healthy people under 50 being hospitalised with corona.
If what I have read is true, there are very very few.
You seem to be assuming that "people with comorbidities" are typically at death's door. This is simply wrong. People can live for decades with diabetes, for example.
I was diagnosed with an immune disorder when I was 15 (I'm now in my 30s), that puts me in the "at risk" group. So if I'd got it and died then I'd be one of your patients with "a host of other issues as well". But my life expectancy, prior to contracting COVID-19, was the same as it would have been if I'd been perfectly healthy. This is a condition that affects hundreds of thousands of people in the UK, at least half of which are under 50. And it's just one of many possible conditions.
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Here is a piece of text the Kevin KcKenna wrote and had published in a national news paper, I have added the emphasis
I always have a wee chuckle with my atheist chums when they deride the mere concept of spirituality yet have no problems with the cost of an international space programme looking for life beyond the stars. Or when they stress the random nature of creation and everything in it but can’t explain why the seasons fall in the same order year after year (but that’s another debate for another time).
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
How is that consistent with the number of deaths being only 13.5% of the number of people who have tested positive, though?
I thought most of those tested were people who had been admitted to hospital.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
How busy is your hospital?
Busy in parts, quiet in others, like most. Leicester is well below the national average in case numbers.
Our surgical wards are quiet, but with the operating theatres being used as ICU, staffed by anaesthetists and Surgical nurses and Trainees, that is inevitable. It isn't possible to run normal services in those circumstances. Fewer DNAs in clinics this week though.
That's Vera Lynn in the pic, apparently. At first I thought someone had made a really good fist of the instruction to "do a portrait of the young Queen looking as much like Diana as you can manage",.
I don't recall people singing anything particular around VE Day. There was a party in the Co-op hall down the road a few days afterwards and I think we sang God Save etc.
I did have the measles on the day itself, so I wasn't outside. One of life's regrets.
"Knees up Mother Brown" was an Armistice Day thing I believe.
Spluttered through as the Spanish Influenza began to do its murderous thing I imagine.
I had a little bird its name was Enza I opened the window, And in-flu-enza.
Comments
* I believe this is a complaint in Nordic countries that when people get refuge, they get to pick where they live and of course they choose where all the others from their home country reside. Which in turn can causes issues of ghetto-isation, more difficult to integrate.
Apparently in Germany, they test people in the community for Coronavirus, and can then do follow-up visits on identified cases to monitor people's condition and hospitalise those that need treatment.
Perhaps the British are showing that they're still as stoic as previous generations (notable exceptions aside), but being led by donkeys again it is killing them.
I think the Graun has got a lot more partisan since 12th Dec.
Never change, Malc, you're a gem.
The second day of data is between 40-50% of the final, stable number with good consistency across the data. Presumably this is from the reporting process times.
Which *suggests* that the final number for the 27th will be in the range 300-370
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1U0TUJF7ldNr7b0HaZ72vXAuDNqpQA8yL
is the combined spreadsheet I generated from all the NHS England data
https://twitter.com/GraemeoRab/status/1255479367427395585?s=20
Scary mortality for disease severe enough for admission, but without community testing it is very hard to know whether there are 10 non admitted for every admission. We really do not have much idea of the numbers. This cartoon summarises our problem well:
Niall Ferguson has said that up to two thirds of those who will pass away from Corona would have passed away this year anyway but of something else.
Its very sad but in many instances Corona merely hastens the demise of those who pass away.
So by elimination, not wanting to read the tabloids, the Mail is appalling, and forgetting left wing media , one is left with the Times that isn't exactly Tory friendly, but the journalism is very good.
Then put the slideshow and data on a hidden website -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-28-april-2020
The cunning barstewards.
Was this ok?
Would the Boris haters be criticising Sir Keir if he had took the same decision, to be with his family in their time of need, if it had happened while he were PM?
<50 =1 (reference)
50-69 = 4 risk ratio
70-79 = 9.5 risk ratio
80+= 13.5 risk ratio
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/covid-19-actuaries-response-group_covid-19-arg-death-row-bulletin-activity-6653226206785347584-SQnY/
Life expectancy of such people, even with ‘worst case’ profiles (eg obese smokers), are of the order of five years or more – these people would probably not have died (without COVID-19) anytime soon.
Genius moment in a great film.
https://youtu.be/15YgdrhrCM8
How we laughed.
If it remains a choice between what's currently on offer & WTO, then WTO is a no brainer. The EU will end up with their Singapore on Thames.
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1255500215223832576
Do you have a source for this figure?
Once the EU decides we aren't a supplicant state and they don't have a divine right to set our laws or take our fish then we can talk again.
We already had Singapore on Thames, that was what Leaverstan resented.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8269187/Windsor-Maidenhead-council-country-file-bankruptcy.html
Short version - if it's bad enough to get you to hospital, you are in the sh%t.
Interesting correlation, that said, with the weather.
Second, we went for a lockdown, and that looks like it might have worked (timing issues mean that it is not certain); while Sweden went for a less stringent lockdown and again, we don't know if it worked. Whatever worked means in those two contexts.
So I'm not sure your post really proves anything. Is it more virulent than bad flu epidemics? No idea. When we see that tens of thousands of people died in 1968, do we know in what way that differed, or what different mode of treatment was offered to those suffering from C-19?
You seem to think there are a host of otherwise healthy people under 50 being hospitalised with corona.
If what I have read is true, there are very very few.
I did have the measles on the day itself, so I wasn't outside. One of life's regrets.
From eyeballing it looks like they have quite a high ratio of admissions to deaths (as in very few ICU cases compared to number of dead) but I never trust my lying eyes.
I imagine in terms of normal death rates 20-30 people a day across the whole of that region isn't a substantial percentage of total deaths.
https://twitter.com/DSchaeferEcon/status/1255488076920639488?s=19
Nothing like a bit of confirmation bias, but to me that suggests that perhaps London, the worst affected place, is starting to see the affect of 'herd immunity'
I was diagnosed with an immune disorder when I was 15 (I'm now in my 30s), that puts me in the "at risk" group. So if I'd got it and died then I'd be one of your patients with "a host of other issues as well". But my life expectancy, prior to contracting COVID-19, was the same as it would have been if I'd been perfectly healthy. This is a condition that affects hundreds of thousands of people in the UK, at least half of which are under 50. And it's just one of many possible conditions.
https://twitter.com/bradloncar/status/1255478999675031555?s=20
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
I always have a wee chuckle with my atheist chums when they deride the mere concept of spirituality yet have no problems with the cost of an international space programme looking for life beyond the stars. Or when they stress the random nature of creation and everything in it but can’t explain why the seasons fall in the same order year after year (but that’s another debate for another time).
Kevin McKenna can safely be ignored on any topic.
I thought most of those tested were people who had been admitted to hospital.
Our surgical wards are quiet, but with the operating theatres being used as ICU, staffed by anaesthetists and Surgical nurses and Trainees, that is inevitable. It isn't possible to run normal services in those circumstances. Fewer DNAs in clinics this week though.
I had a little bird
its name was Enza
I opened the window,
And in-flu-enza.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/revealed-the-inside-story-of-uk-covid-19-coronavirus-crisis