Looking at the curve, it appears 80,000 deaths are possible in Wave 1.
How much did one extra unlocked-down week cost us? Could it be as much as half of that?
Indeed.
And yet France, Italy and Spain are likely to end up in a roughly similar place. This virus is persistent.
They will get to the same or simmiler point because (I suspect) we will all reach heard immunity before a vaccine is developed and deployed.
80,000 deaths, at a Case fatality rate of 0.2% would be 40,000,000, or 2/3 of the UK population. Which sounds like the right ball park to me. and IMHO where we would have ended up without a Lock-down.
Hmm, that's worrying. They are reporting around 20 cases in the Paris area, and they are worried that there might be a delayed effect in children. Tiny numbers at the moment, of course, but still..
The reporting of those case has been grossly irresponsible.
In the Mail's disgraceful article, buried in the text was the little detail that some of these cases had tested negative for Coronavirus. Yes you read that right. Negative.
What's disgraceful about that? It's exactly what Matt Hancock said. The experts are unsure what is going on here. And of course, just because some children tested negative at the time of the test doesn't prove that there is no connection between past exposure to Covid-19 and the possible emergence of a new set of serious symptoms in children.
Fair enough but that evidence sure as heck doesn't prove there is a connection. the Mail's headline said 'coronavirus related'. Given the negative test results how on earth could they or anybody else know that? The fact some cases tested positive could be completely coincidental.
The Mail just went for the headline that would frighten and dismay its readers the most, regardless of the truth. As it has done relentlessly and wholly without context since the start of the outbreak.
Measures like deaths per million citizens (versus other countries) and counting deaths by the day they happened as opposed to the day they were reported have been ignored or obscured by them and others in the media, and in the government too, because they don;t necessarily fit the narrative.
If the "herd immunity" strategy is shown to be as calamitous as it now looks, someone needs to be called to account. Rumours suggest that it was Cummings that drove this. If so, Cameron's description of him being a career psychopath may have a deeper and more sinister meaning. He will possibly be personally responsible for the deaths of thousands of people. I wonder whether he will care? Will Johnson care that he appointed him?
Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
Perhaps the explanation is that informal (self-imposed) lockdown began earlier in the UK, especially in London.
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
Well said - I can`t quite believe how high the stock market is. The economic catastrophe still is not fully understood by many. I think at some point the government will need to make it clear that they can`t keep covering earnings for much longer.
Disagreed. The stock market takes the future into account not just the present.
The economic catastrophe is temporary not permanent. The government won't need to keep covering earnings forever and at that point companies will be earning and stocks will be worth their value.
The catastrophic conditions are temporary. But the economic damage will be pretty much permanent. This crash will leave nasty scars for a generation
And the stock market is down 20% which represents that.
Scars can be lived with.
How far did the Dow Jones fall from the 1929 peak before bottoming out?
Unlike you, Richard. Correlation, causation, Daily Mail speculation, etc. Plus the numbers are minute. I bet if they did a test on people who (would) have gone to hospital with bee stings (older, isolated, likely to be outside) there would be some connection with Covid-19.
It's not Daily Mail speculation, it's a warning notice from the Paediatric Intensive Care Society, confirmed by Matt Hancock, and echoed by similar warnings from doctors in Paris. As I said, the experts are unsure what is going on here, if anything. It might be coincidence, but it looks rather as though it's not.
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
Perhaps the explanation is that informal (self-imposed) lockdown began earlier in the UK, especially in London.
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
Perhaps the explanation is that informal (self-imposed) lockdown began earlier in the UK, especially in London.
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Perhaps there is a direct correlation with how ludicrous the head of government is in each of the countries. Ours is only slightly less ludicrous than the USA's
Hmm, that's worrying. They are reporting around 20 cases in the Paris area, and they are worried that there might be a delayed effect in children. Tiny numbers at the moment, of course, but still..
The reporting of those case has been grossly irresponsible.
In the Mail's disgraceful article, buried in the text was the little detail that some of these cases had tested negative for Coronavirus. Yes you read that right. Negative.
What's disgraceful about that? It's exactly what Matt Hancock said. The experts are unsure what is going on here. And of course, just because some children tested negative at the time of the test doesn't prove that there is no connection between past exposure to Covid-19 and the possible emergence of a new set of serious symptoms in children.
Unlike you, Richard. Correlation, causation, Daily Mail speculation, etc. Plus the numbers are minute. I bet if they did a test on people who (would) have gone to hospital with bee stings (older, isolated, likely to be outside) there would be some connection with Covid-19.
Minute at the moment. The article I shared is from Le Figaro not the Mail so a tad more reliable.
There are increasing reports of similar cases in the US and other countries too now. Given the symptoms don't resemble known covid-19 ones in adults it wouldn't be picked up that quickly so we will have to see how it progresses soon now that countries will be aware what to look out for. Matt Hancock has already commented on the possible link so I wouldn't dismiss it with the same level of concern as a bee sting personally.
To me that looks like the 'big ' drop is in London, with a slight smaller drop in the midlands, and the rest almost flat-Lining.
Nothing like a bit of confirmation bias, but to me that suggests that perhaps London, the worst affected place, is starting to see the affect of 'herd immunity'
Or just that it was hit first (and hardest) and therefore will be first to see the reductions come through
Still unlikely to be anywhere near enough people to have had it for herd immunity...
No, nowhere near herd immunity. But if R in the country overall is around 1, then the effect of even 10 or 20% having acquired immunity will be appreciable over several generations of transmission.
The death rate per head of population in London is about 60% higher than the average for England. I think it's possible that as many as 25% in London may have been infected by the end of this wave (if it comes to an end).
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Perhaps there is a direct correlation with how ludicrous the head of government is in each of the countries. Ours is only slightly less ludicrous than the USA's
Or perhaps it is beacuse we do not record our recovery figures
Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
Perhaps the explanation is that informal (self-imposed) lockdown began earlier in the UK, especially in London.
Bit of a typo tthere surely?
Yep, apologies.
Itd confused me for a moment, thanks. But to your point: I don't think informal lockdown was any later here in Scotland and I've seen fewer reports of crowd behaviour than say London (not surprising given the media concentration there, population, etc. [edited]).
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Hmm, that's worrying. They are reporting around 20 cases in the Paris area, and they are worried that there might be a delayed effect in children. Tiny numbers at the moment, of course, but still..
The reporting of those case has been grossly irresponsible.
In the Mail's disgraceful article, buried in the text was the little detail that some of these cases had tested negative for Coronavirus. Yes you read that right. Negative.
What's disgraceful about that? It's exactly what Matt Hancock said. The experts are unsure what is going on here. And of course, just because some children tested negative at the time of the test doesn't prove that there is no connection between past exposure to Covid-19 and the possible emergence of a new set of serious symptoms in children.
Unlike you, Richard. Correlation, causation, Daily Mail speculation, etc. Plus the numbers are minute. I bet if they did a test on people who (would) have gone to hospital with bee stings (older, isolated, likely to be outside) there would be some connection with Covid-19.
Minute at the moment. The article I shared is from Le Figaro not the Mail so a tad more reliable.
There are increasing reports of similar cases in the US and other countries too now. Given the symptoms don't resemble known covid-19 ones in adults it wouldn't be picked up that quickly so we will have to see how it progresses soon now that countries will be aware what to look out for. Matt Hancock has already commented on the possible link so I wouldn't dismiss it with the same level of concern as a bee sting personally.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Interesting, in my wife's (German) hospital I'm not sure how many Covid patients they have admitted, certainly at least dozens, only one death so far
I personally suspect the high UK mortality is due to the stay at home policy, so people are in a poor state when they get admitted.
My guess is that systems that admit, investigate and monitor patients get better overall results, and also reduce their transmission rate. It is a guess though.
This whole thing does get a person thinking about questions that would not normally occur to them. For example, the fact that one third of UK covid hospitalizations die - it has made me wonder what in normal times the % of ALL admissions to hospital (for all causes) by AMBULANCE end up sadly not making it?
I have no clue. Is it materially different to 33% and if so in which direction?
FWIW, my totally instinctive and non-informed hunch would be 15%.
Just trying to get thoughts straight. Between the 8th and 16th of April there was anywhere between 35-45 new ICU admissions in Sweden with Covid.
Betwen the 8th and 16th of April there were 85-113 deaths per day of Covid.
So 2-3 times as many people were dying of Covid as being admitted to ICU on any particular day.
Is there stats for UK/England for ICU admissions?
The daily Deaths for COVID is Sweden includes the most bored definition of any I am aware of:
If you test positive for COVID and die of any reason in the next 30 days you are counted as one of those numbers, so it could be you die a week later or cancer, 2 weeks later of kidney faliear or 4 weeks later in a car accident, (I don't think any of the last one have happened, but hopefully you get the point.
In addition all the people that die without a test e.g. in care homes, are being added to the list if the doctors put it down as a suspected or possible reason or contributing factor, a week ago 42% of deaths where in care homes.
A week or so ago the New York times looked at exes Deaths above the normal, and found that Sweden was the only place reporting more COVID deaths, than the difference between normal number of deaths and deaths this year.
I've also looked and that is not the case, there is still a solid extra 10% on top of the Covid deaths extra to Sweden's deaths over the 5 year average.
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Completely misleading as of course you know, the only accurate method is per capita, assuming Belgium is recording both hospital & all other corona related deaths at 647 deaths 1m is ranked worse.
Looking at the curve, it appears 80,000 deaths are possible in Wave 1.
How much did one extra unlocked-down week cost us? Could it be as much as half of that?
Indeed.
And yet France, Italy and Spain are likely to end up in a roughly similar place. This virus is persistent.
They will get to the same or simmiler point because (I suspect) we will all reach heard immunity before a vaccine is developed and deployed.
80,000 deaths, at a Case fatality rate of 0.2% would be 40,000,000, or 2/3 of the UK population. Which sounds like the right ball park to me. and IMHO where we would have ended up without a Lock-down.
Unfortunately the death rate in New York City is now ruling out these very low suggested fatality rates. It looks more like 0.5-1%.
Looking at the curve, it appears 80,000 deaths are possible in Wave 1.
How much did one extra unlocked-down week cost us? Could it be as much as half of that?
Indeed.
And yet France, Italy and Spain are likely to end up in a roughly similar place. This virus is persistent.
They will get to the same or simmiler point because (I suspect) we will all reach heard immunity before a vaccine is developed and deployed.
80,000 deaths, at a Case fatality rate of 0.2% would be 40,000,000, or 2/3 of the UK population. Which sounds like the right ball park to me. and IMHO where we would have ended up without a Lock-down.
No, I think that if patients weren't able to get any hospital support, more would end up dying. And an IFR of 0.2% looks optimistic to me (it's already above 0.1% of the entire population of New York State dead)
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
I hate to break it to you but there is no easy solution to this. It is pretty much guaranteed that most of our living standards are going to decline, quite severely in many cases. It would have been no different if we had ignored lockdown completely - 12,000 BA jobs have not gone because of lockdown, they have gone because, globally, nobody is flying anymore.
The number flying this week is 1% of the number this same week last year.
I know but Contrarian seems to think that if we had not bothered to lock-down then BA would have been fine.
Siri, show me the embodiment of smug pocket battleship.
Very good. Must be a relief to you that smugness and arrogance is not the complete preserve of Nicola Sturgeon lol.
Keeping up that 100% 'can't resist a humour free dig at the Natz' record I see. Even on a site which has several posters who never manage to say anything funny or interesting, that's damn consistent, well done!
Thanks that was my guess but I wonder how a later peak has come about in Scotland and Wales given that means it must have continued growing while in lockdown? Seems like an interesting oddity.
Perhaps the explanation is that informal (self-imposed) lockdown began earlier in the UK, especially in London.
Bit of a typo tthere surely?
Yep, apologies.
Itd confused me for a moment, thanks. But to your point: I don't think informal lockdown was any later here in Scotland and I've seen fewer reports of crowd behaviour than say London (not surprising).
I don't know about Scotland specifically, but from my own experience and observations in the SE of England I'm pretty sure that London started informally closing down about a week or even more before areas outside London. People were cancelling unnecessary meetings in London, cancelling restaurant reservations etc as early as the first week in March. Not everyone, of course, but a noticeable effect.
Well, that model I put together on the weekend to try to see what Rt rates were plausible still holds with a current Rt of 0.75. The only adjustments I had to make were to increase the initial infection rate (shifting the entire curve up) for the extra historical deaths announced - the shape of the curve still fits.
For a current Rt of 0.75, it looks like this:
However, I can make it look pretty close with an Rt anywhere between 0.72 and 0.81
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Interesting, in my wife's (German) hospital I'm not sure how many Covid patients they have admitted, certainly at least dozens, only one death so far
I personally suspect the high UK mortality is due to the stay at home policy, so people are in a poor state when they get admitted.
My guess is that systems that admit, investigate and monitor patients get better overall results, and also reduce their transmission rate. It is a guess though.
This whole thing does get a person thinking about questions that would not normally occur to them. For example, the fact that one third of UK covid hospitalizations die - it has made me wonder what in normal times the % of ALL admissions to hospital (for all causes) by AMBULANCE end up sadly not making it?
I have no clue. Is it materially different to 33% and if so in which direction?
FWIW, my totally instinctive and non-informed hunch would be 15%.
Last year "There were approximately 9.4 million discharges, from which 290,000 deaths were recorded either while in hospital or within 30 days of discharge. This includes deaths from other causes as well as deaths related to the reason for the hospital admission." https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/clinical-indicators/shmi/current That seems very low to me.
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
I hate to break it to you but there is no easy solution to this. It is pretty much guaranteed that most of our living standards are going to decline, quite severely in many cases. It would have been no different if we had ignored lockdown completely - 12,000 BA jobs have not gone because of lockdown, they have gone because, globally, nobody is flying anymore.
The number flying this week is 1% of the number this same week last year.
I know but Contrarian seems to think that if we had not bothered to lock-down then BA would have been fine.
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Perhaps there is a direct correlation with how ludicrous the head of government is in each of the countries. Ours is only slightly less ludicrous than the USA's
Or perhaps it is beacuse we do not record our recovery figures
We and the Netherlands are the only major countries that do not.
To me that looks like the 'big ' drop is in London, with a slight smaller drop in the midlands, and the rest almost flat-Lining.
Nothing like a bit of confirmation bias, but to me that suggests that perhaps London, the worst affected place, is starting to see the affect of 'herd immunity'
Or just that it was hit first (and hardest) and therefore will be first to see the reductions come through
Still unlikely to be anywhere near enough people to have had it for herd immunity...
No, nowhere near herd immunity. But if R in the country overall is around 1, then the effect of even 10 or 20% having acquired immunity will be appreciable over several generations of transmission.
The death rate per head of population in London is about 60% higher than the average for England. I think it's possible that as many as 25% in London may have been infected by the end of this wave (if it comes to an end).
I disagree on heard immunity,
It the changes in behave have brought R to about 1.0 then a 20% infection rate in London and 5% outside would bring about re-transmission levels of 0.8 and 0.95. which looks Constantine with those graphs.
If the Case fatality rate is about 0.2% and for quick maths lets say Londons population is 10,000 million then 20% is 2 million and 0.2% is 4,000 deaths. which all look credible to me.
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
The explanation of how the score is calculated is particularly telling.
Hmm - the fact that they have scored the UK on the basis that only 807 people have recovered out of 158,848 confirmed cases means that we can be entirely confident that the score is a load of grade-A1 cobblers.
Just trying to get thoughts straight. Between the 8th and 16th of April there was anywhere between 35-45 new ICU admissions in Sweden with Covid.
Betwen the 8th and 16th of April there were 85-113 deaths per day of Covid.
So 2-3 times as many people were dying of Covid as being admitted to ICU on any particular day.
Is there stats for UK/England for ICU admissions?
The daily Deaths for COVID is Sweden includes the most bored definition of any I am aware of:
If you test positive for COVID and die of any reason in the next 30 days you are counted as one of those numbers, so it could be you die a week later or cancer, 2 weeks later of kidney faliear or 4 weeks later in a car accident, (I don't think any of the last one have happened, but hopefully you get the point.
In addition all the people that die without a test e.g. in care homes, are being added to the list if the doctors put it down as a suspected or possible reason or contributing factor, a week ago 42% of deaths where in care homes.
A week or so ago the New York times looked at exes Deaths above the normal, and found that Sweden was the only place reporting more COVID deaths, than the difference between normal number of deaths and deaths this year.
I've also looked and that is not the case, there is still a solid extra 10% on top of the Covid deaths extra to Sweden's deaths over the 5 year average.
OK I did not fact check the artificial, but are there COVID reported deaths close to the difference than in other nations? 10% difference sounds lower than most places.
Strange manner of speaking Patel has in that she doesn’t pronounce the G’s at the end of words, even when speaking slowly, precisely in a professional environment. It doesn’t sit right with the rest of her speech to me
Plenty of people, myself included, do that when speaking quickly, or casually, down the pub, but I think I’d pronounce them at a job interview
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Comparing apples with lemons does not help..... lies lies and damned statistics.
This one does sound bollox but is "apples vs some different fruit" going to be the stock Johnson apologist response to any and every negative comparison with other countries on Covid?
I see hopes of economic bounceback are fading. Didn't take a rocket scientist to work out the V shaped OBR projection was head in the clouds mince.
12,0000 BA jobs gone, council bankruptcies and slashed wages (P&O) are the harbingers of the economic meltdown ahead. I read today the government may be obliged to cut the minimum wage to get employers to hire people again. Otherwise its no dice.
And who can blame them? what businessman would take a risk faced with a government gutless cowards terrified of the next Piers Morgan tweet or Guardian headline?
And if we decide to inflate away the debt via printing money, well, untold millions will see their living standards plummet.
I hate to break it to you but there is no easy solution to this. It is pretty much guaranteed that most of our living standards are going to decline, quite severely in many cases. It would have been no different if we had ignored lockdown completely - 12,000 BA jobs have not gone because of lockdown, they have gone because, globally, nobody is flying anymore.
The number flying this week is 1% of the number this same week last year.
I know but Contrarian seems to think that if we had not bothered to lock-down then BA would have been fine.
He's a contrary'n that Contrarian.
I suspect those casually laughing off mass redundancies are people whose jobs are not threatened.
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Comparing apples with lemons does not help..... lies lies and damned statistics.
This one does sound bollox but is "apples vs some different fruit" going to be the stock Johnson apologist response to any and every negative comparison with other countries on Covid?
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Interesting, in my wife's (German) hospital I'm not sure how many Covid patients they have admitted, certainly at least dozens, only one death so far
I personally suspect the high UK mortality is due to the stay at home policy, so people are in a poor state when they get admitted.
My guess is that systems that admit, investigate and monitor patients get better overall results, and also reduce their transmission rate. It is a guess though.
This whole thing does get a person thinking about questions that would not normally occur to them. For example, the fact that one third of UK covid hospitalizations die - it has made me wonder what in normal times the % of ALL admissions to hospital (for all causes) by AMBULANCE end up sadly not making it?
I have no clue. Is it materially different to 33% and if so in which direction?
FWIW, my totally instinctive and non-informed hunch would be 15%.
Last year "There were approximately 9.4 million discharges, from which 290,000 deaths were recorded either while in hospital or within 30 days of discharge. This includes deaths from other causes as well as deaths related to the reason for the hospital admission." https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/clinical-indicators/shmi/current That seems very low to me.
I think that discharge figure includes all surgical admissions, including daycase planned surgery.
It is emergency medical admissions that would be the comparator.
We know that Coronovirus gets in via ACE2 receptors, and that these are found in blood vessels and heart. This may account for some of the renal and cardiac problems in adults.
The Angiotensin system works differently in children, perhaps accounting for the lack of respiratory cases in children.
Yes, on reflection he’s right. It looks like they’ve beaten it without entirely shagging their economy (tho they will still take a hit because of their export dependency)
Even more interesting, maybe, is their ICU performance. They haven’t reached capacity, despite having even fewer beds per capita, at the start, than the UK
In theory their laxer approach should have seen hospitals rammed as bad as Lombardy or Madrid. If not worse.
Does not seem to compute. If Sweden has lower ICU capacity but higher Covid-19 incidence than us, why has their health system not struggled to cope?
Obviously they treat outside ICU, not all intensive cases get ventilators only a very small amount.
News I've just seen is that here in the UK one third of all the people hospitalized with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak have died. One third! And the figure will end up higher since there are many patients in hospital now who have not yet died but will.
On this measure - your chances of responding to treatment - the disease is as bad as Ebola.
Frightening.
Seems a bit unlikely that a third of Covid admissions to hospital have died, unless only extremely ill Covid patients are being admitted.
Do you have a source for this figure?
That matches what we have seen in Leicester. As of yesterday 203 have died, 378 discharged home, that ratio hasn't changed for weeks.
Interesting, in my wife's (German) hospital I'm not sure how many Covid patients they have admitted, certainly at least dozens, only one death so far
I personally suspect the high UK mortality is due to the stay at home policy, so people are in a poor state when they get admitted.
My guess is that systems that admit, investigate and monitor patients get better overall results, and also reduce their transmission rate. It is a guess though.
This whole thing does get a person thinking about questions that would not normally occur to them. For example, the fact that one third of UK covid hospitalizations die - it has made me wonder what in normal times the % of ALL admissions to hospital (for all causes) by AMBULANCE end up sadly not making it?
I have no clue. Is it materially different to 33% and if so in which direction?
FWIW, my totally instinctive and non-informed hunch would be 15%.
Thank you! Never dreamed there'd be a quick answer. This puts the 'one third for covid' in an even more baleful light.
Possibly worse still if we refined it, since for comparison purposes I assumed all covid admissions come by ambulance when presumably some do not.
Patient Boris Johnson, for example, did not require an ambulance.
In the US, apocryphal evidence supports the idea that stay at home is contributing to mortality rate - there is a slowburn hypoxia*, so people don't realize they are going downhill until very late in the game. What this also means, is that these people are not eating and drinking enough to help their bodies fight off the virus.
This has led to a change in treatment regime, with efforts to get those in the early stages of infection to maintain adequate eating and drinking, and to start oxygen supplementation (not using ventilators) earlier.
*PS hypoxia to the extent that when people finally do arrive at the hospital for treatment, their oxygen levels are so low they would normally be considered not consistent with life, even while these patients are still working their cell phones, until they crash. Apparently similar to the slowly boiling frog thing ...
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
The explanation of how the score is calculated is particularly telling.
Hmm - the fact that they have scored the UK on the basis that only 807 people have recovered out of 158,848 confirmed cases means that we can be entirely confident that the score is a load of grade-A1 cobblers.
Either that or Leicester has half the UK recovered cases!
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
The explanation of how the score is calculated is particularly telling.
Hmm - the fact that they have scored the UK on the basis that only 807 people have recovered out of 158,848 confirmed cases means that we can be entirely confident that the score is a load of grade-A1 cobblers.
Either that or Leicester has half the UK recovered cases!
Shades of the University of Washington model where Leicester seemed to have all the ventilators in the country as well...
To me that looks like the 'big ' drop is in London, with a slight smaller drop in the midlands, and the rest almost flat-Lining.
Nothing like a bit of confirmation bias, but to me that suggests that perhaps London, the worst affected place, is starting to see the affect of 'herd immunity'
Or just that it was hit first (and hardest) and therefore will be first to see the reductions come through
Still unlikely to be anywhere near enough people to have had it for herd immunity...
No, nowhere near herd immunity. But if R in the country overall is around 1, then the effect of even 10 or 20% having acquired immunity will be appreciable over several generations of transmission.
The death rate per head of population in London is about 60% higher than the average for England. I think it's possible that as many as 25% in London may have been infected by the end of this wave (if it comes to an end).
I disagree on heard immunity,
It the changes in behave have brought R to about 1.0 then a 20% infection rate in London and 5% outside would bring about re-transmission levels of 0.8 and 0.95. which looks Constantine with those graphs.
If the Case fatality rate is about 0.2% and for quick maths lets say Londons population is 10,000 million then 20% is 2 million and 0.2% is 4,000 deaths. which all look credible to me.
That 20% figure for London may not be too far off.
But I think it would correspond to a larger number of deaths than 4,000. That's feasble, because the figure for deaths in hospitals is already nearly 5,000, and I suppose deaths elsewhere will probably be another 2,500-5,000. And then there will be a comparable number of deaths still to come in people already infected. One could guess at perhaps 13,000 in total, and by my reckoning with a fatality rate of 0.7% that would correspond to 20% of the population of London (9m).
Given that there are still more infections to come in this wave, it seems believable that around a quarter of the population of London will have been infected. Not enough for herd immunity in normal life, but enough to make an important difference when it comes to relaxing restrictions.
Looking at the curve, it appears 80,000 deaths are possible in Wave 1.
How much did one extra unlocked-down week cost us? Could it be as much as half of that?
Indeed.
And yet France, Italy and Spain are likely to end up in a roughly similar place. This virus is persistent.
They will get to the same or simmiler point because (I suspect) we will all reach heard immunity before a vaccine is developed and deployed.
80,000 deaths, at a Case fatality rate of 0.2% would be 40,000,000, or 2/3 of the UK population. Which sounds like the right ball park to me. and IMHO where we would have ended up without a Lock-down.
Unfortunately the death rate in New York City is now ruling out these very low suggested fatality rates. It looks more like 0.5-1%.
New York City has had it bad, and yes death rate is over 0.1%
But:
1, look at the hospitalisation rate in New York city Drop, its drooping quicker there than anywhere else I've seen, new York has a lock down, but so do lots of places and no were else has it had the same effect, suggesting that something else is also having an effect, if its not a high post-infected-imunity rate then what is it? The death rate is also droping rapidly but I use the hospitalsiation rate so to not complcate the second point
2, There were so many cases in NYC in such a short time that heath care system relay struggled, I'm not going to use expropriations like 'overrun' but the heavy loading may have let to some deaths that might have been avoided.
I'm not to weeded to the 0.2% guesstimate it may be double that, but also the number needed to get to heard immunity may also be lower as some things like shaking hand are likely gone for a generation.
I'm taking ball park not exact numbers but I think my point stands.
Siri, show me the embodiment of smug pocket battleship.
Very good. Must be a relief to you that smugness and arrogance is not the complete preserve of Nicola Sturgeon lol.
Keeping up that 100% 'can't resist a humour free dig at the Natz' record I see. Even on a site which has several posters who never manage to say anything funny or interesting, that's damn consistent, well done!
So sorry, it I just that you are such an easy target, though I did think, to my surprise that your comment was quite amusing btw, which is particularly odd coming from a nationalist. Nationalism is a backward looking poisonous creed of which there is nothing funny at all, and whose adherents are normally a humourless bunch, so I am not surprised you never see any humour in my posts . English nationalism (and it's current obsession Brexit) should be mocked for its ludicrous irrationality and so should the Scottish version. Neither is better than the other, though you will claim, with the rationality that is peculiar to nationalism, that your type of divisive hate driven nationalism is somehow different to the English version. It isn't.
Siri, show me the embodiment of smug pocket battleship.
Very good. Must be a relief to you that smugness and arrogance is not the complete preserve of Nicola Sturgeon lol.
Keeping up that 100% 'can't resist a humour free dig at the Natz' record I see. Even on a site which has several posters who never manage to say anything funny or interesting, that's damn consistent, well done!
So sorry, it I just that you are such an easy target, though I did think, to my surprise that your comment was quite amusing btw, which is particularly odd coming from a nationalist. Nationalism is a backward looking poisonous creed of which there is nothing funny at all, and whose adherents are normally a humourless bunch, so I am not surprised you never see any humour in my posts . English nationalism (and it's current obsession Brexit) should be mocked for its ludicrous irrationality and so should the Scottish version. Neither is better than the other, though you will claim, with the rationality that is peculiar to nationalism, that your type of divisive hate driven nationalism is somehow different to the English version. It isn't.
If English nationalism and British unionism are the same thing, which is the implication of your post, then you are an English nationalist, of the imperialist variety.
Given how rapidly they are extending eligibility to tests they probably have sufficient capacity to meet the target. Now it's just a question of logistics.
Siri, show me the embodiment of smug pocket battleship.
Very good. Must be a relief to you that smugness and arrogance is not the complete preserve of Nicola Sturgeon lol.
Keeping up that 100% 'can't resist a humour free dig at the Natz' record I see. Even on a site which has several posters who never manage to say anything funny or interesting, that's damn consistent, well done!
Arglefarglebargle
Keep it up, maybe at some point you'll say something interesting, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon.
An interesting analysis of the coronavirus ‘performance’ of 185 countries, ranked in order of effectiveness
It’s encouraging that in this list of 185 countries we are doing better than the mighty USA. Though it should be noted they are in 185th place, and we are 184th
Comparing apples with lemons does not help..... lies lies and damned statistics.
This one does sound bollox but is "apples vs some different fruit" going to be the stock Johnson apologist response to any and every negative comparison with other countries on Covid?
I do hope not.
When it's a valid criticism, why not?
I'm making the (almost certainly valid) assumption that "apples vs pears or sultanas or pomegranates etc" will not be a suitable response to every negative comparison of UK covid outcome vs others - so it will get tedious if it is parroted incessantly. I'm picking up the first scent that this may happen if we are not careful, it will become a trope - like "following the science" - thus we need to kill it off now. So I'm watching for it and will act where necessary.
Strange manner of speaking Patel has in that she doesn’t pronounce the G’s at the end of words, even when speaking slowly, precisely in a professional environment. It doesn’t sit right with the rest of her speech to me
Plenty of people, myself included, do that when speaking quickly, or casually, down the pub, but I think I’d pronounce them at a job interview
My son is a big fan and active supporter on forums and he does chat with their players.
They heard he was laid off due to CV19 and stressing about life and money - they sent him a copy of Football Manager to "keep him busy and take his mind off things"
They've added in all the other deaths in care homes.
Jean Clead Van Tam on the oche today - class.
Not added all as far as i can see
4343 care home deaths from 10/4/20 to 24/4/20 1043 care home deaths up to 10/4/20
So surely they should have added at least 5486
They have added 3811
Why?
Is there something obvious??
They are reporting if Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The CQC numbers are not directly comparable therefore.
The new numbers only include tested apparently not like ONS that has tested and untested deaths
It's confusing though - because hospital deaths are more inclusive in the UK than France... as stated yesterday, none of this is easily comparable and we need to look at excess mortality in each country after the event. All of this is really difficult to interpret otherwise...
Well, that model I put together on the weekend to try to see what Rt rates were plausible still holds with a current Rt of 0.75. The only adjustments I had to make were to increase the initial infection rate (shifting the entire curve up) for the extra historical deaths announced - the shape of the curve still fits.
For a current Rt of 0.75, it looks like this:
However, I can make it look pretty close with an Rt anywhere between 0.72 and 0.81
You wonder how it is as high as 0.75. Then see stories of folk hiding in cupboards in pubs....
Comments
80,000 deaths, at a Case fatality rate of 0.2% would be 40,000,000, or 2/3 of the UK population. Which sounds like the right ball park to me. and IMHO where we would have ended up without a Lock-down.
The Mail just went for the headline that would frighten and dismay its readers the most, regardless of the truth. As it has done relentlessly and wholly without context since the start of the outbreak.
Measures like deaths per million citizens (versus other countries) and counting deaths by the day they happened as opposed to the day they were reported have been ignored or obscured by them and others in the media, and in the government too, because they don;t necessarily fit the narrative.
You are in a taxi. A saloon taxi (ie not a London cab which doesn't have it). The aircon is on but you think it's too warm still.
Do you say:
a) could you please turn the aircon up; or
b) could you please turn the aircon down.
TIA
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1255159132157628422?s=20
Siri, show me the embodiment of smug pocket battleship.
...Lancashire is where it rains. Some parts of Yorkshire are practically desert.
There are increasing reports of similar cases in the US and other countries too now. Given the symptoms don't resemble known covid-19 ones in adults it wouldn't be picked up that quickly so we will have to see how it progresses soon now that countries will be aware what to look out for. Matt Hancock has already commented on the possible link so I wouldn't dismiss it with the same level of concern as a bee sting personally.
We used to live in the Yorkshire desert, just south of Selby - less rain there than we have here in sunny Dorset.
The death rate per head of population in London is about 60% higher than the average for England. I think it's possible that as many as 25% in London may have been infected by the end of this wave (if it comes to an end).
How hard in this day and age would it be to have an actual temperature setting?
Possibly worse still if we refined it, since for comparison purposes I assumed all covid admissions come by ambulance when presumably some do not.
Patient Boris Johnson, for example, did not require an ambulance.
Completely misleading as of course you know, the only accurate method is per capita, assuming Belgium is recording both hospital & all other corona related deaths at 647 deaths 1m is ranked worse.
And an IFR of 0.2% looks optimistic to me (it's already above 0.1% of the entire population of New York State dead)
For a current Rt of 0.75, it looks like this:
However, I can make it look pretty close with an Rt anywhere between 0.72 and 0.81
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/clinical-indicators/shmi/current
That seems very low to me.
It the changes in behave have brought R to about 1.0 then a 20% infection rate in London and 5% outside would bring about re-transmission levels of 0.8 and 0.95. which looks Constantine with those graphs.
If the Case fatality rate is about 0.2% and for quick maths lets say Londons population is 10,000 million then 20% is 2 million and 0.2% is 4,000 deaths. which all look credible to me.
Plenty of people, myself included, do that when speaking quickly, or casually, down the pub, but I think I’d pronounce them at a job interview
I do hope not.
It is emergency medical admissions that would be the comparator.
Re Kawasaki disease:
It seems to be occuring elsewhere too.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/health/rare-inflammatory-syndrome-us-covid-19/index.html
There is quite a plausible biological rationale.
We know that Coronovirus gets in via ACE2 receptors, and that these are found in blood vessels and heart. This may account for some of the renal and cardiac problems in adults.
The Angiotensin system works differently in children, perhaps accounting for the lack of respiratory cases in children.
This has led to a change in treatment regime, with efforts to get those in the early stages of infection to maintain adequate eating and drinking, and to start oxygen supplementation (not using ventilators) earlier.
*PS hypoxia to the extent that when people finally do arrive at the hospital for treatment, their oxygen levels are so low they would normally be considered not consistent with life, even while these patients are still working their cell phones, until they crash. Apparently similar to the slowly boiling frog thing ...
But I think it would correspond to a larger number of deaths than 4,000. That's feasble, because the figure for deaths in hospitals is already nearly 5,000, and I suppose deaths elsewhere will probably be another 2,500-5,000. And then there will be a comparable number of deaths still to come in people already infected. One could guess at perhaps 13,000 in total, and by my reckoning with a fatality rate of 0.7% that would correspond to 20% of the population of London (9m).
Given that there are still more infections to come in this wave, it seems believable that around a quarter of the population of London will have been infected. Not enough for herd immunity in normal life, but enough to make an important difference when it comes to relaxing restrictions.
If I can get away with denigrating Lancashire as a first post I guess I'll be OK on less divisive topics.
I used to have cacti growing outdoors in the garden but to be fair they did eventually succumb to a damp winter after about 10 years.
You could probably get away with it in Essex.
Anyway, time for Coronavirusnews.
But:
1, look at the hospitalisation rate in New York city Drop, its drooping quicker there than anywhere else I've seen, new York has a lock down, but so do lots of places and no were else has it had the same effect, suggesting that something else is also having an effect, if its not a high post-infected-imunity rate then what is it? The death rate is also droping rapidly but I use the hospitalsiation rate so to not complcate the second point
2, There were so many cases in NYC in such a short time that heath care system relay struggled, I'm not going to use expropriations like 'overrun' but the heavy loading may have let to some deaths that might have been avoided.
I'm not to weeded to the 0.2% guesstimate it may be double that, but also the number needed to get to heard immunity may also be lower as some things like shaking hand are likely gone for a generation.
I'm taking ball park not exact numbers but I think my point stands.
Jean Clead Van Tam on the oche today - class.
Is 765 including hospital only or some care home deaths?
Guido makes it three so far...
1,540
Nearly 3% - from 8.4% of the population.
Scotland deserves better from the SNP.
20k gap between tests and capacity - problem is getting tests to punters.
4343 care home deaths from 10/4/20 to 24/4/20 1043 care home deaths up to 10/4/20
So surely they should have added at least 5486
They have added 3811
Why?
Is there something obvious??
Plus in one of wales and NI - not sure which.
Okay, not soon.
And Belgium added to make sure there is someone much worse than us.
My son is a big fan and active supporter on forums and he does chat with their players.
They heard he was laid off due to CV19 and stressing about life and money - they sent him a copy of Football Manager to "keep him busy and take his mind off things"
This is such a hostage to fortune.
Raab said in his intro that it is the critical test - but he has changed it and nobody has noticed.