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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden still trails in the WH2020 betting in spite of opening d
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden still trails in the WH2020 betting in spite of opening double digit poll leads over Trump
By far the biggest development so far in WH2020 has been Trump’s comment a few days ago that people could inject themselves with bleach to fight the the coronavirus. This has been widely ridiculed and there have been reports from many parts of the US of people actually ingesting bleach and other such liquids and having to be treated by the emergency services.Of all the crazy things that this President has said so far during the campaign this is been ranked as the craziest and it is been suggested that it could have a decisive effect on the outcome in November. It is so blindingly obvious that his advice was bonkers that it has reinforced all sorts of doubts about him even at Fox News.The extraordinary is that over the past two months of the pandemic Joe Biden has found it very hard commanding any media attention whatsoever. He has got nothing really to say about the pandemic and has largely ignored. In spite, or maybe because of this, the latest polls have him enjoying double-digit leads over Trump.It is being suggested that the best strategy for 77 year old Joe between now and November is to lay low and let the election be all about Trump and all that entails. The worst thing that could happen is for Biden himself to become an issue and there are a number of reasons why that could be the case.The former VP should formally get the nomination at the the party convention in Milwaukee in July. There’s still a lot of doubt about whether that will actually take place but clearly the party has got to decide on its choice that that could happen at a virtual convention.Generally speaking presumptive nominees like Biden don’t announce their vice presidential choice until just before the convention and I don’t see any reason why there’ll be something different this time. The betting favourite for this is still Kamala Harris though Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren have fairly tight odds.
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Nothing in the world like the birth of a child, happy for them.
Like one of Boris' earlier children
Who'll be sixth?
Nice to see some unalloyed joy in the midst of this.
Not tempted at the moment. Currently feeling quietly confidence of my bet on Hamilton scoring at under 21 races this year.
Edited extra bit: assuming it isn't voided, of course.
On-topic: reckon Biden should be slight favourite.
[ducks]
After all, Trump is worse than evens (otherwise I'd be laying him again).
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1255284006519746561?s=19
However punters may be sticking with Trump as his supporters seem much more enthusiastic than Biden's. Biden faces the problem that John Kerry or Mitt Romney faced, a vote for him seems to be more against the incumbent than for them
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1255310629629542401?s=19
@Pulpstar said:
“Depends how the virus/a vaccine pan out and whether people rebound like a coiled spring into the way life was previously or perhaps, whilst not enjoying the total lockdown we now have, prefer a more relaxed pace of life.”
I don’t think there is anything relaxed about a life in which one can’t see family or friends, can’t visit a museum or gallery, or go to a play, concert, gig or film, can’t eat out, can’t explore parts of one’s country or visit historic or architectural attractions or join with others in any sort of communal activity, whether as participant or spectator. And this is the sort of life we will have to endure - because none of these activities are possible with “social distancing”
1. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/russian-spy-chief-is-potential-suspect-in-downing-of-mh17-jwqcxxrct
2. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/fca-intervention-is-potentially-explosive-bld90022m
Prospective Democratic voters are pretty damned determined to get rid of Trump; they'd vote for a ham sandwich in preference.
And who but fools are excited about an election when the economy is crashing and there are millions of unemployed, and while the pandemic still menaces ?
In the past when the PM was unable to attend PMQs due to being eg out of the country or having a baby the Opposition normally sent their deputy. Who is Starmer's deputy?
On a different tack - does anyone know whether the November election could be postponed? I know there`s no precedent for this, but is it theoretically possible under their constitution?
I accept it is different and can be extremely stressful for anyone who still needs to physically be at their work at the moment.
1) Some dumb luck was involved - the Comey stuff hit right at the wrong time, etc etc.
2) Hillary had very weak pandering-to-the-right-voters skills, that's also how she lost to Obama. Biden is naturally strong in the mid-west, and his team knows how to appeal to the voters they have, not the voters they'd like to have.
My guess:
Biden supporters:
Extremely/Very excited 64% (+27)
Mildly/Not that excited 37%
Trump supporters:
Extremely/Very excited 45% (-10)
Mildly/Not that excited 55%
How they must hate him!
1) Adding a chaos factor like this should help whoever controls the voting in swing states, and the swingiest states now have Dem governors, who can at least block politically unfavourable changes, and in some cases can push through favourable ones
But
2) Procedural chaos also favours whoever is the most audacious, and Trump is nothing if not audacious
(Edit - 'determined' is more accurate than 'mandated'.)
I think we may have "virtual" households made up of not more than five people and not including any vulnerable people.
It's all there in the terms and conditions of being a crisis PM.
And I don't hate him. I think he is, as I have always thought, a solipsistic, lazy, useless twat.
It is genuinely strange. Is it because there is less obesity in France?
LOL at all the hard left halfwits posting on here earlier criticising him for not attending PMQs!
(Always assuming there isn't a previous Winston in the brood. In which case - Youngest Winston?)
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/03/08/what-will-be-the-name-of-the-boris-johnsons-baby/
"The bottom line is that even if he does try to cancel the election, Trump can't be guaranteed that he stays in the White House. He would need either a great deal of luck or a coup to remain president. And the office might easily elude the likely Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, too.
Here’s why".
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/17/could-trump-use-the-virus-to-stay-in-power-192883
What will the next presidential election be about, primarily?
A step change on relations with China? A revised, sterner approach?
Trump went to war with the Chinese on trade for two years and stopped flights from there when Corona broke out, in the face of official advice.
He has railed against outsourcing and the exporting of jobs to China for years. Recently even devout globalists like President Macron said that the French might have to adopt a more domestic supply chain approach.
The evidence is that Trump is ahead of the curve and has a very solid track record on the number one issue of this campaign
Biden?
Trump may be vain, boorish, narcissistic, thin skinned, opportunistic and a very poor communicator.
The mistake his detractors make is underestimating his mental acuity.
It's the last episode, I think, of Homeland this Sunday. When the current series started the world was quite a different place.
Boris was apparently raring to go and to take charge as of a few days ago.
In the meantime there is no one in charge.
Accountability for the PM is essential in a Parliamentary democracy.
But if the government extends the definition to "virtual" households I think they would not want to expose vulnerable people any more than they are currently exposed.
Other factors including obesity levels will also have at least some effect but at this stage its just difficult to way how retentive much each factor is.
While having more infections, and more deaths at this stage may seem terrible, the flip side is that we are probably closer to 'heard immunity' the total deaths per million when this is all over may be simmiler, and only vary by things like % of population over 80, and obesity.
The duration of a presidential term is set by the Constitution. The date of the election is set by Federal law, and which the constitution requires a vote of Congress to change.
So the simple answer is no, Trump cannot alter the date of the election.
Of course he can (and almost certainly will) do anything he can to thrown sand in the works, with the full cooperation of Republican state governors (limiting postal voting, the number of polling stations, early voting etc.).
I don't put it past him to declare some state of emergency.
But legally, there's little or nothing he can do to stay in the White House beyond January of next year. Other than win the election in November.
Ton of unknowns, we'll probably not know until a few years of analysis. The models seem to suggest a near identical number of infections, it's just our infected are faring worse.
But just to say again, I cannot see a 2nd term for Trump. To re-elect him having seen how he behaves in office and when he has zero tangible achievements to his name apart from appointing a misogynist drunk to the Supreme Court, would mean that America has gone completely loco. It would render them a rogue nation. Beyond the pale. It could happen - of course it could, he's the incumbent - but I'd be wanting a LOT longer than even money on it.
https://twitter.com/Marketplace/status/1254957609343422465
https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1255413299874799617