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SystemSystem Posts: 12,821
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will be Sir Keir Starmer’s successor?

My 25/1 tip as next Labour leader.

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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,978
    edited April 2020
    Already considering Sir Kier's replacement?

    In the words of Blue Eyes - You're riding high in April, shot down in May.

    That's Life!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,143
    ukpaul said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Stockholm will reach 'herd immunity' within weeks
    Claim comes amid bitter debate over success of Sweden's relaxed approach

    Sweden's infectious diseases chief has said parts of the country could achieve "herd immunity" as early as next month as debate rages over the rising death toll." (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/18/stockholm-will-reach-herd-immunity-within-weeks

    https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/details/Sweden

    Estimated at 11% a few days ago.
    I don't believe he said all of Sweden, he said parts e.g. Stockholm.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,654
    More money to be made laying David Miliband?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,114
    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,071
    Sandpit said:

    More money to be made laying David Miliband?

    I'm not being greedy, there's only so many times you can milk a (cash) cow.

    Why do you think I'm not laying Hillary Clinton anymore for the Dem nomination?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,143
    Floater said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8234015/Coronavirus-infections-reported-staff-hospital-Henan-medic-returned-Wuhan.html

    I posted about this 2-3 days ago. A BBC blue checkmark tweeted about how something strange going on there, and a US based Chinese journalist (who is anti CCP) also talking about it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,654
    FPT:
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sigh, can't get the quotes straight. I said:

    I didn't say that, it's a quoting cockup. And i entirely agree with you. I read somewhere reasonably authoritative that 30 % of all deaths in India are not formally recorded anywhere, and only 25% have the cause of death certified by a doctor.

    HYUFD has never been anywhere in the third world. He doesn't realise that they do things differently there.

    Before we all got caught up in the current panic, there was a huge news story about the Indian government's attempts to re-register everyone. There's at least tens of millions of Indians who have no record of their life anywhere official. It could actually turn out to be hundreds of millions of completely undocumented people.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,940
    Nandy at 18/1 worth a punt also I think.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,541
    Is the more important split in the Tory party not between Leave and Remain but between China hawks and doves?

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/1251824117482913797?s=21
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,158
    https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1251828618256429056
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,114
    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Andy Burnham or Dan Jarvis.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,978
    Has anyone seen Roger on here lately? I assume he's self-isolating in one of his twelve mansions? ;)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,114
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1251828618256429056

    Boris who?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,143
    edited April 2020
    GIN1138 said:

    Has anyone seen Roger on here lately? I assume he's self-isolating in one of his twelve mansions? ;)

    I don't think we have heard from him since before the GE. He didn't even do his usual (and one time a year where his predictions are worth taking notice of) Oscars piece.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,114
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Andy Burnham or Dan Jarvis.

    The former for me

    The contrast in the performance of the 2 mayors is stark
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,978
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has anyone seen Roger on here lately? I assume he's self-isolating in one of his twelve mansions? ;)

    I don't think we have heard from him since before the GE. He didn't even do his usual (and one time a year where his predictions are worth taking notice of) Oscars piece.
    Oh hope he's OK. Maybe OGH can send him an email.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,033
    Another question for WWII UK military procurement -

    What is the connection between cigarettes and an African tropical disease?

    This time £5 to charity of choice - it's an easier question.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Floater said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8234015/Coronavirus-infections-reported-staff-hospital-Henan-medic-returned-Wuhan.html

    I posted about this 2-3 days ago. A BBC blue checkmark tweeted about how something strange going on there, and a US based Chinese journalist (who is anti CCP) also talking about it.
    Not great news for anyone hoping for medical kit from China...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    NerysHughes said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
    There's a big problem heading the NHS's way later this summer and into the Autumn. Backlog of elective surgery. Cancellation of "non-urgent" operations that WILL have to be recategorized as urgent in six months time. Huge numbers of doctors and nurses who will have basically gone months without a holiday needing to be given time off. Oh, and the standard winter crisis.

    Oh, and COVID-19 second wave...

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,033
    edited April 2020
    alex_ said:

    NerysHughes said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
    There's a big problem heading the NHS's way later this summer and into the Autumn. Backlog of elective surgery. Cancellation of "non-urgent" operations that WILL have to be recategorized as urgent in six months time. Huge numbers of doctors and nurses who will have basically gone months without a holiday needing to be given time off. Oh, and the standard winter crisis.

    Oh, and COVID-19 second wave...

    It might be that the first level of lockdown reduction - after the COVID19 numbers have gone down and testing allows you to declare *some* hospitals COVID19 free - would be to start to work through the medical backlog.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,159
    @charles I thought I was quite a lot older than you actually!

    Dining out used to be a treat but I think in the last decade it’s become more of a regular thing generally

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    alex_ said:

    NerysHughes said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
    There's a big problem heading the NHS's way later this summer and into the Autumn. Backlog of elective surgery. Cancellation of "non-urgent" operations that WILL have to be recategorized as urgent in six months time. Huge numbers of doctors and nurses who will have basically gone months without a holiday needing to be given time off. Oh, and the standard winter crisis.

    Oh, and COVID-19 second wave...

    There will have to be a rapid re-assessment of what constitutes urgent and non-urgent treatment, just because of the medium-term (at least) reduction in capacity.

    I suspect that anyone waiting for a hip replacement, for example, and who lacks the means to go private is going to be left in pain for years.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,033
    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    But cases have been declining for a full 10 minutes now...

    Seriously - good luck to you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,275
    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1251828618256429056

    Nice to have Scott and his twitter barrage back. He did some decent self isolating of his own after losing the election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,275
    On topic, Mr Eagles, you’re right.

    It is far too early to be considering Starmer’s likely successor.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,033
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sigh, can't get the quotes straight. I said:

    I didn't say that, it's a quoting cockup. And i entirely agree with you. I read somewhere reasonably authoritative that 30 % of all deaths in India are not formally recorded anywhere, and only 25% have the cause of death certified by a doctor.

    HYUFD has never been anywhere in the third world. He doesn't realise that they do things differently there.

    Before we all got caught up in the current panic, there was a huge news story about the Indian government's attempts to re-register everyone. There's at least tens of millions of Indians who have no record of their life anywhere official. It could actually turn out to be hundreds of millions of completely undocumented people.
    "re-register" - in fact to register people in the first place.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,071
    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    I’ll try and get said piece written for next weekend.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,680
    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1251852944053592066
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Black_Rook said:

    alex_ said:

    NerysHughes said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
    There's a big problem heading the NHS's way later this summer and into the Autumn. Backlog of elective surgery. Cancellation of "non-urgent" operations that WILL have to be recategorized as urgent in six months time. Huge numbers of doctors and nurses who will have basically gone months without a holiday needing to be given time off. Oh, and the standard winter crisis.

    Oh, and COVID-19 second wave...

    There will have to be a rapid re-assessment of what constitutes urgent and non-urgent treatment, just because of the medium-term (at least) reduction in capacity.

    I suspect that anyone waiting for a hip replacement, for example, and who lacks the means to go private is going to be left in pain for years.
    My wife works as an anaesthetist in a rural US hospital. They are re-starting urgent non-elective surgeries after about a month of just non-elective surgeries. So far, they've only had 4 confirmed COVID cases, all of whom survived and have been discharged.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,033
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    I’ll try and get said piece written for next weekend.
    Perhaps a companion piece on the Epicurian perfection of pineapple on pizza?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    I’ll try and get said piece written for next weekend.
    :smiley:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,402
    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,254
    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    I’ll try and get said piece written for next weekend.
    Perhaps a companion piece on the Epicurian perfection of pineapple on pizza?
    I've eaten a lot of pizza in my time and have never been tempted to put pineapple on it. I find it a rather odd idea, frankly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,275
    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    You just had to open your big keyboard, didn’t you?
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,833
    I think Keir could be with us for a long time yet 10-15 years. Too many variables for me. Putting your money in Shell for that sweet 10-11% dividend and hoping their promises of diversification bear fruit might be a little less risky.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,402
    596, how does that compare to a fortnight last saturday (Last sat was bank holiday sat so not a fair comparison)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,275
    MightyAlex said:

    I think Keir could be with us for a long time yet 10-15 years. Too many variables for me. Putting your money in Shell for that sweet 10-11% dividend and hoping their promises of diversification bear fruit might be a little less risky.

    He’s 57. I give him two general elections at most. More likely, if he loses the next one he resigns about a year afterwards.

    That, of course, is another consideration. If Labour are in office, or seem close to it, back a centrist as they try to make that last heave. If they’re in opposition and feel they’re likely to stay there, back them to pick the most self-indulgent candidate imaginable.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    ydoethur said:

    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    You just had to open your big keyboard, didn’t you?
    Can't resist an open goal, and TSE obviously needed someone to say it.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Black_Rook said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    Small leaks over time sink big ships
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Black_Rook said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    Traffic levels also significantly up in my small bit of the US, despite us having a cold snap atm, and MD being quite a few weeks behind NY in the pandemic. That said, people's behaviour has definitely 'improved' in relation to following social distancing and face mask guidelines.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 945
    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    ManchesterKurt said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,275
    edited April 2020
    Black_Rook said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    Well, yes, but if enough of them do it deciding it’s a ‘reasonable excuse,’ lockdown is over.

    Which is what I saw on Cannock Chase.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 945
    edited April 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Black_Rook said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    Well, yes, but if enough of them do it deciding it’s a ‘reasonable excuse,’ lockdown is over.

    Which is what I saw on Cannock Chase.
    ...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,033
    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    I’ll try and get said piece written for next weekend.
    Perhaps a companion piece on the Epicurian perfection of pineapple on pizza?
    I've eaten a lot of pizza in my time and have never been tempted to put pineapple on it. I find it a rather odd idea, frankly.
    It's ghastly.

    I am more interested by discovering that bacon on pizza is heresy, according to the Italians.

    Don't they know everything is better with bacon?
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 945
    TimT said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    I may be wrong, but the essence of what I read was there is no certainty that you cannot catch the virus more than once.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    ManchesterKurt said:

    ydoethur said:

    Black_Rook said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    Well, yes, but if enough of them do it deciding it’s a ‘reasonable excuse,’ lockdown is over.

    Which is what I saw on Cannock Chase.
    I may be wrong, but the essence of what I read was there is no certainty that you cannot catch the virus more than 1.
    Yes, reports out of South Korea are worrying in that regard. And there have been reports from the UK that those with no or low symptoms are not developing antibody immunity (and hence could be open to re-infection). But this study was using antibody tests, so the people they viewed as having been exposed are contributing to herd immunity - unless the antibodies are themselves promoting infection - something that has been known to happen with other coronaviruses.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    alex_ said:

    NerysHughes said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
    There's a big problem heading the NHS's way later this summer and into the Autumn. Backlog of elective surgery. Cancellation of "non-urgent" operations that WILL have to be recategorized as urgent in six months time. Huge numbers of doctors and nurses who will have basically gone months without a holiday needing to be given time off. Oh, and the standard winter crisis.

    Oh, and COVID-19 second wave...

    Lots of nurses are having more time off now than they have ever had, lack of patients, massive overstaffing, cancellation of overtime and bank work.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,114
    Foreign Aid from Turkey

    https://www.express.co.uk/videos/6150597369001/Coronavirus-Expert-explains-reason-for-PPE-delivery-delay
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,254
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Andy Burnham or Dan Jarvis.

    Never been too enamoured of Jarvis. Having a leader from the Northern heartlands who has been in the paras would clearly be absolutely fantastic for blowing away the notion of Labour these days being a party for Guardian reading North London dwelling poncipoops (like me) but my suspicion is that his appeal does mainly boil down to that.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    TimT said:

    Black_Rook said:

    alex_ said:

    NerysHughes said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
    There's a big problem heading the NHS's way later this summer and into the Autumn. Backlog of elective surgery. Cancellation of "non-urgent" operations that WILL have to be recategorized as urgent in six months time. Huge numbers of doctors and nurses who will have basically gone months without a holiday needing to be given time off. Oh, and the standard winter crisis.

    Oh, and COVID-19 second wave...

    There will have to be a rapid re-assessment of what constitutes urgent and non-urgent treatment, just because of the medium-term (at least) reduction in capacity.

    I suspect that anyone waiting for a hip replacement, for example, and who lacks the means to go private is going to be left in pain for years.
    My wife works as an anaesthetist in a rural US hospital. They are re-starting urgent non-elective surgeries after about a month of just non-elective surgeries. So far, they've only had 4 confirmed COVID cases, all of whom survived and have been discharged.
    Whereabouts? Many US states are vast and very sparsely populated - Montana, for example, is larger than Germany yet is home to only about a million people, has no cities bigger than Norwich and is very remote from all of the States' major metropolitan areas. It would be no surprise if somewhere like that got off more lightly than New Zealand and without the need for anything more than the most rudimentary movement in the direction of social distancing.

    We don't have their advantages. It could be years before the healthcare system returns to something resembling normality.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,833
    edited April 2020
    ydoethur said:

    MightyAlex said:

    I think Keir could be with us for a long time yet 10-15 years. Too many variables for me. Putting your money in Shell for that sweet 10-11% dividend and hoping their promises of diversification bear fruit might be a little less risky.

    He’s 57. I give him two general elections at most. More likely, if he loses the next one he resigns about a year afterwards.

    That, of course, is another consideration. If Labour are in office, or seem close to it, back a centrist as they try to make that last heave. If they’re in opposition and feel they’re likely to stay there, back them to pick the most self-indulgent candidate imaginable.
    He could well win in coalition in 5 years so thats the first 10 out the way. Betting on one hopeful out of many with no visible end-point and in a hugely uncertain time seems folly if you're betting to win. Where is the edge?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,680
    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,922
    Rather ridiculous thread header given Starmer has only been in the job less than a month.

    If Starmer loses the next general election then it would suggest one more heave was not enough and David Miliband could make a return or Liz Kendall or even Chuka Umunna could defect back again if Labour was desperate for a Blairite to take them back to power after a Brownite failed to deliver as the Corbynites had not.

    If Starmer ends up PM after the next general election then whoever holds the senior Cabinet posts will be favourite
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,680
    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    As long as groups of people from the same household stay 2 metres apart from each other I can't see the problem.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    Black_Rook said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    Well, yes, but if enough of them do it deciding it’s a ‘reasonable excuse,’ lockdown is over.

    Which is what I saw on Cannock Chase.
    Our once-a-day outdoor exercise excuse for escape from house arrest has been there since the outset. Hence, if that's all they're doing, then they're acting within the rules not flouting them.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Black_Rook said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    On my walk earlier saw very few people about and those that were about were very much keeping their social distance
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,922
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sigh, can't get the quotes straight. I said:

    I didn't say that, it's a quoting cockup. And i entirely agree with you. I read somewhere reasonably authoritative that 30 % of all deaths in India are not formally recorded anywhere, and only 25% have the cause of death certified by a doctor.

    HYUFD has never been anywhere in the third world. He doesn't realise that they do things differently there.

    Before we all got caught up in the current panic, there was a huge news story about the Indian government's attempts to re-register everyone. There's at least tens of millions of Indians who have no record of their life anywhere official. It could actually turn out to be hundreds of millions of completely undocumented people.
    Firstly I have been to the third world, Nablus in the Palestinian authority is third world on any definition as are some of the less salubrious parts of Mauritius.

    Second, Isam can say what he likes he still has zero evidence for his theory that Covid 19 mortality is highest depending on the life expectancy of the country in question rather than with over 80s across the board, in fact all the evidence suggests the opposite
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Oh I did see a guy sunbathing in his rather small front garden - I imagine the Po Po would feel his collar if they saw him.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,254
    Malmesbury said:

    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    I’ll try and get said piece written for next weekend.
    Perhaps a companion piece on the Epicurian perfection of pineapple on pizza?
    I've eaten a lot of pizza in my time and have never been tempted to put pineapple on it. I find it a rather odd idea, frankly.
    It's ghastly.

    I am more interested by discovering that bacon on pizza is heresy, according to the Italians.

    Don't they know everything is better with bacon?
    Well, yes, that obviously works. Bacon is a close relative of the thing without which a pizza is not really a pizza - pepperoni.

    And of course you have the ritual of plucking each piece off and eating it with your fingers first. Anybody who says they don't do that is a person of very dubious character indeed.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,126
    TimT said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    Can you please stop peddling this herd immunity, wishful thinking nonsense.....it's a vaccine, or a gamechanging anti-viral, or massive testing and contact tracing that gets us out of this....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,153
    edited April 2020
    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1251816580197072896

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1251877131828813824

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1251877475669467136
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    MightyAlex said:

    ydoethur said:

    MightyAlex said:

    I think Keir could be with us for a long time yet 10-15 years. Too many variables for me. Putting your money in Shell for that sweet 10-11% dividend and hoping their promises of diversification bear fruit might be a little less risky.

    He’s 57. I give him two general elections at most. More likely, if he loses the next one he resigns about a year afterwards.

    That, of course, is another consideration. If Labour are in office, or seem close to it, back a centrist as they try to make that last heave. If they’re in opposition and feel they’re likely to stay there, back them to pick the most self-indulgent candidate imaginable.
    He could well win in coalition in 5 years so thats the first 10 out the way. Betting on one hopeful out of many with no visible end-point and in a hugely uncertain time seems folly if you're betting to win. Where is the edge?
    This might well serve as the perfect example of a mug's bet.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,158
    https://twitter.com/LJ_Skipper/status/1251883150705385474
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,033
    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    kinabalu said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    I’ll try and get said piece written for next weekend.
    Perhaps a companion piece on the Epicurian perfection of pineapple on pizza?
    I've eaten a lot of pizza in my time and have never been tempted to put pineapple on it. I find it a rather odd idea, frankly.
    It's ghastly.

    I am more interested by discovering that bacon on pizza is heresy, according to the Italians.

    Don't they know everything is better with bacon?
    Well, yes, that obviously works. Bacon is a close relative of the thing without which a pizza is not really a pizza - pepperoni.

    And of course you have the ritual of plucking each piece off and eating it with your fingers first. Anybody who says they don't do that is a person of very dubious character indeed.
    But Italians will tell you bacon on pizza is a crime almost as bad as pineapple...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,961
    NerysHughes said:

    alex_ said:

    NerysHughes said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
    There's a big problem heading the NHS's way later this summer and into the Autumn. Backlog of elective surgery. Cancellation of "non-urgent" operations that WILL have to be recategorized as urgent in six months time. Huge numbers of doctors and nurses who will have basically gone months without a holiday needing to be given time off. Oh, and the standard winter crisis.

    Oh, and COVID-19 second wave...

    Lots of nurses are having more time off now than they have ever had, lack of patients, massive overstaffing, cancellation of overtime and bank work.
    Well that is undoubtedly a good thing. The pandemic is being controlled better than we could have hoped. Well done Boris, well done NHS!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,126
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    As long as groups of people from the same household stay 2 metres apart from each other I can't see the problem.
    Apart from the fact that if you cough you project Covid microbes up to 8 meters away....it only takes one of these little fellas to fuck you up.....and put you on the trajectory of a ventilator and a ghastly lonely death in a matter of weeks....

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,882
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/LJ_Skipper/status/1251883150705385474

    Was he supposed to chair them? Sounds like he wasn't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,071
    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    I’ll try and get said piece written for next weekend.
    Perhaps a companion piece on the Epicurian perfection of pineapple on pizza?
    Late last year I wrote the greatest polling analysis in history, it featured Hawaiian pizzas.

    Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere.

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/01/your-regular-reminder-that-hypothetical-polls-can-be-as-accurate-as-an-american-war-film/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,153
    tyson said:

    TimT said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    Can you please stop peddling this herd immunity, wishful thinking nonsense.....it's a vaccine, or a gamechanging anti-viral, or massive testing and contact tracing that gets us out of this....
    It is not "wishing thinking nonsense". It is a possibility that we will get there a lot quicker because so many of us have had it asymptomatically, or perhaps have natural immunity.

    That hypothesis may turn out to be wrong, but isn't nonsense.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,071
    HYUFD said:

    Rather ridiculous thread header given Starmer has only been in the job less than a month.

    If Starmer loses the next general election then it would suggest one more heave was not enough and David Miliband could make a return or Liz Kendall or even Chuka Umunna could defect back again if Labour was desperate for a Blairite to take them back to power after a Brownite failed to deliver as the Corbynites had not.

    If Starmer ends up PM after the next general election then whoever holds the senior Cabinet posts will be favourite

    This is politicalbetting dot com, we're doing what it says on the tin.

    Heck we were discussing the 2012 Presidential nominees before Obama was even elected in 2008.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    williamglenn said:

    Is the more important split in the Tory party not between Leave and Remain but between China hawks and doves?

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/1251824117482913797?s=21

    I agree - the Brexit debate (in the Tory party at least) is over - and this split does focus on traditional Tory concerns - the economy and national security.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Excellent Ch4 series on Putin - which I think sums him up well - he's a weak man whose only focus is hanging on to power. He must be terrified by the knowledge that nothing lasts forever.

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/putin-a-russian-spy-story/on-demand/69173-001
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/LJ_Skipper/status/1251883150705385474

    Who missed five meetings?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    rottenborough said:

    tyson said:

    TimT said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    Can you please stop peddling this herd immunity, wishful thinking nonsense.....it's a vaccine, or a gamechanging anti-viral, or massive testing and contact tracing that gets us out of this....
    It is not "wishing thinking nonsense". It is a possibility that we will get there a lot quicker because so many of us have had it asymptomatically, or perhaps have natural immunity.

    That hypothesis may turn out to be wrong, but isn't nonsense.
    Quite.
    (I was going to add "what do you think testing is supposed to achieve … ?" … )

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,654
    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,126
    rottenborough said:

    tyson said:

    TimT said:

    ManchesterKurt said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    Can you please stop peddling this herd immunity, wishful thinking nonsense.....it's a vaccine, or a gamechanging anti-viral, or massive testing and contact tracing that gets us out of this....
    It is not "wishing thinking nonsense". It is a possibility that we will get there a lot quicker because so many of us have had it asymptomatically, or perhaps have natural immunity.

    That hypothesis may turn out to be wrong, but isn't nonsense.
    The German Wuhan...had 15%....Lombardy has 10%...these are with blood tests samples that show the population affected....and at best it is 15%

    We know what happens when this virus hits a hotspot.....Bergamo, New York, Madrid....
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    edited April 2020
    Herd immunity - supported by partial lockdown and social distancing (its not an either/or) - is the only method we can actually rely on now, as well, as the vaccine don't exist, a cure-all treatment don't exist and people don't seem to quite grasp the differences between different types of testing. The most useful one? don't exist.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,254
    ManchesterKurt said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    I think herd immunity is a real Plan Z. It costs 3m hospital admissions and 250k lives.

    Social distancing and partial lockdown until vaccine, I fear.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,126
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    We (the UK) are not counting countless thousands dying in care homes...so pot calling kettle springs to mind....
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    "Suspicious" is a gross understatement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,922
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rather ridiculous thread header given Starmer has only been in the job less than a month.

    If Starmer loses the next general election then it would suggest one more heave was not enough and David Miliband could make a return or Liz Kendall or even Chuka Umunna could defect back again if Labour was desperate for a Blairite to take them back to power after a Brownite failed to deliver as the Corbynites had not.

    If Starmer ends up PM after the next general election then whoever holds the senior Cabinet posts will be favourite

    This is politicalbetting dot com, we're doing what it says on the tin.

    Heck we were discussing the 2012 Presidential nominees before Obama was even elected in 2008.
    In 2023 maybe it might be appropriate, not 4 years before Starmer's first general election
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,126
    alterego said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    "Suspicious" is a gross understatement.

    Our fatality figures are very suspicious too....thousands dying in care homes....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/LJ_Skipper/status/1251883150705385474

    Was he supposed to chair them? Sounds like he wasn't.
    May was criticised for being a control freak for wanting to do everything herself.

    We get a PM who delegates and he's criticised for not being a control freak who does everything himself.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,654
    CarlottaVance said:

    Excellent Ch4 series on Putin - which I think sums him up well - he's a weak man whose only focus is hanging on to power. He must be terrified by the knowledge that nothing lasts forever.

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/putin-a-russian-spy-story/on-demand/69173-001

    Looking at the graph of case reports and deaths, by far the steepest curve of any country is now Russia, with the outbreak centered on Moscow - another city that's very densely populated.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,089
    Floater said:

    Black_Rook said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    On my walk earlier saw very few people about and those that were about were very much keeping their social distance
    I'm seeing moderately more around, but still tiny numbers.

    I have seen exactly one chipshop open.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    CarlottaVance said:

    Excellent Ch4 series on Putin - which I think sums him up well - he's a weak man whose only focus is hanging on to power. He must be terrified by the knowledge that nothing lasts forever.

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/putin-a-russian-spy-story/on-demand/69173-001

    did they manage to ask former KGB man Putin if he was weak?

    maybe they did, but we'd never know.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    We (the UK) are not counting countless thousands dying in care homes...so pot calling kettle springs to mind....
    We are counting them!!!! They are published weekly, hospital deaths are published daily and as a cohort enable analysis and reaction more quickly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,961
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rather ridiculous thread header given Starmer has only been in the job less than a month.

    If Starmer loses the next general election then it would suggest one more heave was not enough and David Miliband could make a return or Liz Kendall or even Chuka Umunna could defect back again if Labour was desperate for a Blairite to take them back to power after a Brownite failed to deliver as the Corbynites had not.

    If Starmer ends up PM after the next general election then whoever holds the senior Cabinet posts will be favourite

    This is politicalbetting dot com, we're doing what it says on the tin.

    Heck we were discussing the 2012 Presidential nominees before Obama was even elected in 2008.
    I like Allin- Khan. She is one of only a handful of MPs who's stock is genuinely on the ascent during this crisis.

    At the GE she did blot her copybook somewhat, by ripping-off Boris' hilarious Love Actually spoof before he did his.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,158
    CarlottaVance said:

    We get a PM who delegates and he's criticised for not being a control freak who does everything himself.

    No, he is criticized for not wanting to do ANYTHING that looks like work himself...
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    CarlottaVance said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/LJ_Skipper/status/1251883150705385474

    Was he supposed to chair them? Sounds like he wasn't.
    May was criticised for being a control freak for wanting to do everything herself.

    We get a PM who delegates and he's criticised for not being a control freak who does everything himself.

    the media have always had a 'throw enough shit' strategy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,193
    Malmesbury said:

    alex_ said:

    NerysHughes said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
    There's a big problem heading the NHS's way later this summer and into the Autumn. Backlog of elective surgery. Cancellation of "non-urgent" operations that WILL have to be recategorized as urgent in six months time. Huge numbers of doctors and nurses who will have basically gone months without a holiday needing to be given time off. Oh, and the standard winter crisis.

    Oh, and COVID-19 second wave...

    It might be that the first level of lockdown reduction - after the COVID19 numbers have gone down and testing allows you to declare *some* hospitals COVID19 free - would be to start to work through the medical backlog.
    My duties are to run a skeleton non covid service for the urgent stuff. We have plenty of capacity to do so, and have adapted things for maximum safety. The hard bit is getting the patients to turn up, they are so shit-scared.

    Mind you, we did get one the other day that flustered sister a bit. Had positive Covid-19 swabs 12 days prior that no one had told him about. Took a while to clean up the waiting area.

    As Dr Rosena says in her tweets above, we are terrible at isolating cases for the 14 days required (7 days in UK for some unknown reason). It is going to be very hard to get R below 1 without isolating cases.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,882
    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    We (the UK) are not counting countless thousands dying in care homes...so pot calling kettle springs to mind....
    Those are included in the ONS figures. Are you really comparing the two?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,922
    CarlottaVance said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/LJ_Skipper/status/1251883150705385474

    Was he supposed to chair them? Sounds like he wasn't.
    May was criticised for being a control freak for wanting to do everything herself.

    We get a PM who delegates and he's criticised for not being a control freak who does everything himself.

    Yes, the best leaders and managers know how to delegate eg Churchill, Blair and Reagan and Boris.

    Control freaks like Nixon, May and Brown rarely prosper in the top job.
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