People are going to be really annoyed when lockdown ends and the only advantages are that you can go to work and send the kids to school, with all kinds of super annoying new rules to follow, and everything is is heavily curtailed.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
I isolated for a week, and was indeed ill, though perhaps not with Covid. Now back at work, indeed volunteering to be the assessor of a covid patient today, wearing just mask, polythene apron and gloves.
We all act according to our conscience, if we have one.
Good man, doing your job. I shall clap for you on Thursday, in between sips of Barolo
I hope you enjoy the wine. I am rather fond of Barolo.
Good luck. Sincerely. You know I’m only bantering
This pestilence is messing with people I love, as I am sure is the case with most PBers. We really are all in this together
Don't worry, I have a thick skin.
I must admit that I am at times finding it all a bit exciting. The pandemic has certainly got me out of a rut, and looking at medicine with fresh eyes. I have missed that frisson of danger since I gave up my motorcycle.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Words are cheap. By taking it on the chin are you arguing that the UK should have let the virus exceed NHS capacity?
Words are cheap and i sit here drinking amarone, safe in my Penarth loft, but yes - im coming to think a combination of a beefed up NHS (the nightingale capacity) with a lighter Swedish lockdown might have been better.
It wasn’t possible in wave 1. We weren’t ready. Wave 2 will have a lighter lockdown
HYUFD is right. Testing is the key. Test and trace, test and trace.
I bloody hope the government have some people working on the tech required to "trace". Even with this voluntery app, the government needs to know instantly who to call to a testing centre next. That requires tech, as you need to prioritize certain people from the cohort that came close to a new infection. Doing this manually takes too long. Indentification, test and result needs to be completed within 24hrs.
My understanding was that PHE actually did an excellent job on the tracing whilst it was still a thing, and before we just gave up with a shrug and a "yeah, whatever..."
this was explained at the time, at the press conference when we moved from contain to delay :absolute case numbers crossed a threshold while too many 'unexplained' clusters were popping up. It would be ineffective use of resources. When/if the numbers fall below a certain level, I fully expect this approach to be revisited.
ALSO "In the coming weeks, we will be introducing further social distancing measures for older and vulnerable people, asking them to self-isolate regardless of symptoms. If we introduce this next stage too early, the measures will not protect us at the time of greatest risk but could have a huge social impact. We need to time this properly, continue to do the right thing at the right time, so we get the maximum effect for delaying the virus. We will clearly announce when we ask the public to move to this next stage."
I had a hollow laugh at that last bit. State of the some of the opinions on here.
I think the March 11th decision to no longer test apparant cases was one of the major mistakes. Diagnosis and testing are crucial to quarantining the right people, even if resources are not there to trace all their contacts.
It was the same mistake in America, where the rules restricting testing were ridiculously exclusive, even when sustained transmission was happening.
Testing, and quarantining is the only short term way of relaxing the lockdown. Transmission within restrictive spaces whether household, care home, aircraft carrier, church or ski chalet is where it happens.
While there will be some asymptomatic superspreaders, quarantining known cases will greatly reduce transmission, getting that R number right down.
Our national policy of not seeing, or confirming cases until they are desperately sick is throwing petrol on the fire.
Was it not simply a matter of resources? That we didn't have the resources to test every potential case. Not to forget that at the time something like 95% of test cases were negative.
In an ideal world we'd test everyone but making the most of limited resources seems sensible.
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
Knowledge of potential risk was out there. The knowledge of how the disease was progressing changes all the time.
The potential was addressed all along. The point was made time and again that timing was critical and the timing would have been wrong in January. The timing was deemed right in March. That's a change.
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
+1
I think the Swedish system would be more likely to succeed if coupled with an aggressive testing and quarantine policy.
A Swedish type voluntary system coupled with our lackadaisical testing regime would be a recipie for trouble.
These things are not alternatives to each other, they are complementary.
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
Knowledge of potential risk was out there. The knowledge of how the disease was progressing changes all the time.
The potential was addressed all along. The point was made time and again that timing was critical and the timing would have been wrong in January. The timing was deemed right in March. That's a change.
Yes, but that was not what was being argued. The spin was not "this is the right time" it was "the science has changed".
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
Surely it’s the science advice that changed?
Indeed. Which includes the data.
Its like saying "if you have a fever don't work and start self-isolating" and someone takes their temperature daily. Monday to Thursday their temperate is 37.0 and on Friday their temperature is 39.2
On Friday are they wrong to stay home and self-isolating? On Monday to Thursday were they wrong to work?
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
Surely it’s the science advice that changed?
In which case the initial scientific advice was wrong. The data was there in the last week of Jan.
this is really forensically done as well. should perhaps not be hiding on a gov.uk website
The government has every right to rebut, but I don't think this is very solid. By implication anything not fully rebutted goes into the "must be right" category. The points they do make are pedantic, contradictory and in places disingenuous.
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
Surely it’s the science advice that changed?
In which case the initial scientific advice was wrong. The data was there in the last week of Jan.
No it wasn't. The data includes our current capacity, usage and forecast with and without actions. That was not pointing to overloading in January and since we never did overload the January advice was correct.
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
Knowledge of potential risk was out there. The knowledge of how the disease was progressing changes all the time.
The potential was addressed all along. The point was made time and again that timing was critical and the timing would have been wrong in January. The timing was deemed right in March. That's a change.
Yes, but that was not what was being argued. The spin was not "this is the right time" it was "the science has changed".
Just back from a 20 mile bike ride through deserted country lanes. Strange experience but nice from a cycling point of view.
I was thinking today: in our part of rural Sussex, it has probably never been as quiet as it is today since at least the late 1870s, when construction started on the (now defunct) railway in our valley. Now: no railway, almost no cars, almost no planes, and really not much else other than birdsong. I'm not even sure that before the 1870s it would have been as quiet as this, since farms employed so many people then.
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
Knowledge of potential risk was out there. The knowledge of how the disease was progressing changes all the time.
The potential was addressed all along. The point was made time and again that timing was critical and the timing would have been wrong in January. The timing was deemed right in March. That's a change.
Yes, but that was not what was being argued. The spin was not "this is the right time" it was "the science has changed".
Would it be technically possible to speed up the production of a vaccine if money were no object? Because world governments ought to be able to put up almost unlimited funds in order to help find one.
Would it be technically possible to speed up the production of a vaccine if money were no object? Because world governments ought to be able to put up almost unlimited funds in order to help find one.
Possibly - though in reality an awful lot of funding is going into vaccine development, together with the capacity to bulk manufacture (whether from government, industry, or benefactors like Gates). By far and away the largest limiting factor is the time required for clinical trials. Unless you deliberately infect trial subjects after they’ve had their vaccine shot, there is no easy way to speed this up, irrespective of how much you spend. Anything less than eighteen months would be remarkably fast by the standards of vaccine development.
If I was to give the government a scorecard on all of the aspects:
ICU capacity increase - A Ventilator procurement - B PPE procurement - F Testing - F Lockdown - E Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
Support for economy - Good Support for workers - Good Increased NHS bed capacity - Excellent Ventilators - Good PPE procurement - Average as per other countries Testing - Poor
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
No, not overloaded, except in a few hotspots. My point was that the knowledge was there. This notion that "the science changed" is the nonsense that I object to.
Knowledge of potential risk was out there. The knowledge of how the disease was progressing changes all the time.
The potential was addressed all along. The point was made time and again that timing was critical and the timing would have been wrong in January. The timing was deemed right in March. That's a change.
Yes, but that was not what was being argued. The spin was not "this is the right time" it was "the science has changed".
Because it did.
Er, no it didn't!
Yes it did and they quoted what changed. The data on the percentage of patients that require ventilation changed from their earlier estimates which brought forward the risk of an overload at a lower proportion of people having the virus.
The possibiity of an overload was known (and quoted) in advance. The scientific data changed and with it the advice.
Would it be technically possible to speed up the production of a vaccine if money were no object? Because world governments ought to be able to put up almost unlimited funds in order to help find one.
My understanding of the Gates pledge is that production is the area where money works best to speed the process. Discovery in the first place seems to be the most likely place where it will fail, and clinical trials are the part that has the most unavoidable delays, because you can't speed up the human body. Needless to say, any half-good vaccine candidate will undergo far fewer safety trials than usual, so the first vaccine is more likely than most vaccines to kill or harm people.
Experts told the Guardian that a “macho” focus on headline-grabbing figures had been pursued at the expense of rigorous science.
The Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove, said on Sunday that the government was confident that the goal of 100,000 tests daily by the end of April would be met.
However, scepticism is building. On Saturday, only 21,626 tests were carried out.
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said he viewed the target as impossible. “I cannot see that being achieved,” he said. “It was always designed to be a headline grabber rather than anything else.”
Others said a relentless focus on the number of tests performed each day had led to basic data reporting standards falling by the wayside. Prof Sheila Bird, formerly of the Medical Research Council’s biostatistics unit at the University of Cambridge, said: “The level of incompetence in reporting these tests is outrageous.”....
If I was to give the government a scorecard on all of the aspects:
ICU capacity increase - A Ventilator procurement - B PPE procurement - F Testing - F Lockdown - E Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
What is the criticism on PPE procurement?
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
Why France has 4 times as many coronavirus deaths as Germany
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21223915/coronavirus-germany-france-cases-death-rate The reason why we in Germany have so few deaths at the moment compared to the number of infected can be largely explained by the fact that we are doing an extremely large number of lab diagnoses,” Christian Drosten, the chief virologist at the Charité hospital in Berlin, told the New York Times this month.
Germany has Europe’s best pharmaceutical industry, allowing it to respond quickly to disease outbreaks. In the case of Covid-19, German laboratories started accumulating testing kits as signs of a global spread became more real in early 2020. These labs were well stocked ahead of Germany’s first confirmed coronavirus case in February.
The Robert Koch Institute’s Degen told me that early testing helped the country’s public health officials get a better understanding of where the outbreaks were and how far the disease had spread before things got out of control. “This is probably why we started to see cases very early, and many cases, and also mild ones,” she said.
This also helps explain why the number of confirmed cases is so high but the number of deaths so small: hundreds of thousands are getting tested each week, and the vast majority of them won’t have a life-threatening case. Every subsequent test, then, makes the infection-to-death ratio smaller and smaller.
But that’s not all: Germany has also gone the extra mile to track those with the disease.
In the city of Heidelberg, for example, the New York Times reports that vehicles known locally as “corona taxis” transport physicians to the homes of those who have been sick for five to six days.
“They take a blood test, looking for signs that a patient is about to go into a steep decline. They might suggest hospitalization, even to a patient who has only mild symptoms; the chances of surviving that decline are vastly improved by being in a hospital when it begins,” the New York Times’s Katrin Bennhold wrote.
This not only helps authorities keep tabs on a known patient, but also enables them to intervene at a critical point in the disease’s progression, thereby reducing the chances of death.
“Testing and tracking is the strategy that was successful in South Korea and we have tried to learn from that,” Hendrik Streeck, who leads the University of Bonn’s virology institute, told the New York Times.
It appears Germany plans to keep up intense tracking for the foreseeable future. “Once ... we are down to, let’s say, a couple of hundred cases per day or even better, less than a hundred cases, we will try to follow up on every case and get in touch with everyone who has been in touch with those new cases, quarantine and test them,” Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist at the University of Cologne, told CNBC on April 3....
If I was to give the government a scorecard on all of the aspects:
ICU capacity increase - A Ventilator procurement - B PPE procurement - F Testing - F Lockdown - E Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
What is the criticism on PPE procurement?
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
The thing is, I can't actually see any error here that is specific to the UK government. Nor can I see any evidence that they were ignoring credible warnings, or failing to heed experts. or that there was action they were advised to take but didn't. Maybe there is some such evidence, but 'more PPE is urgently needed' is not it.
If I was to give the government a scorecard on all of the aspects:
ICU capacity increase - A Ventilator procurement - B PPE procurement - F Testing - F Lockdown - E Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
What is the criticism on PPE procurement?
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
UK industry can't make latex or nitrile gloves or respirators or surgical face masks that would pass basic standards.
If I was to give the government a scorecard on all of the aspects:
ICU capacity increase - A Ventilator procurement - B PPE procurement - F Testing - F Lockdown - E Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
What is the criticism on PPE procurement?
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
UK industry can't make latex or nitrile gloves or respirators or surgical face masks that would pass basic standards.
Complement associated microvascular injury and thrombosis in the pathogenesis of severe COVID-19 infection: A report of five cases https://www.translationalres.com/article/S1931-5244(20)30070-0/pdf ... The respiratory distress syndrome accompanying a subset of severe COVID-19 may be distinct from classic ARDS. There is relatively well-preserved lung mechanics despite the severity of hypoxemia, characterized by high respiratory compliance and high shunt fraction, and increasing recognition of systemic features of a hypercoaguable state in this disease. Therefore, the pathology and pathophysiology of COVID-19 might differ from that of typical ARDS. We sought to define the role of complement activation and microvascular thrombosis in cases of persistent, severe COVID-19.
... A pattern of tissue damage consistent with complement-mediated microvascular injury was noted in the lung and/or skin of five individuals with severe COVID-19. Our demonstration of the striking deposition of C5b-9, C4d, and MASP2 in the microvasculature of two organ systems is consistent with profound and generalized activation of both alternative and lectin-based pathways. It provides a foundation for further exploration of the pathophysiologic importance of complement in COVID-19, and could suggest targets for specific intervention....
They need Boris out there, selling it, day after day. He needs to get better or hand over to a compelling deputy
Trouble with asking "is the government response doing OK" is that people may answer no for diametrically opposed reasons. Both lockdown sceptics (I'm increasingly of this view - IMHO the lockdown is now just delaying the inevitable and nuking the economy, we would do better to take the hit and get it over with), and those who think that the government hasn't locked down nearly hard enough will be saying that they are dissatisfied. Unless you ask a better question, you've no idea which way option is swinging, merely that at least one of those camps is gaining adhereants.
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
The thing is, I can't actually see any error here that is specific to the UK government. Nor can I see any evidence that they were ignoring credible warnings, or failing to heed experts. or that there was action they were advised to take but didn't. Maybe there is some such evidence, but 'more PPE is urgently needed' is not it.
We did call in the emergency supply which France, err, borrowed from us. That should have been a warning, but the government ignored it and decided to continue to rely on the international markets.
If I was to give the government a scorecard on all of the aspects:
ICU capacity increase - A Ventilator procurement - B PPE procurement - F Testing - F Lockdown - E Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
What is the criticism on PPE procurement?
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
I am trying my best to stay focused on the Government measures that have gone well. On seeing your scoring system I am struggling to disagree with you. The Nightingale Hospitals are an absolute triumph. Ventilator procurement at times has been hit and miss, but the results from Mercedes this week are nothing short of miraculous even if the Dyson offering it would seem sucked. I would give the lockdown a higher score but Boris bottled it on Friday March 20th, so a 'C'. Everything else I can't disagree with.
From some other correspondents, the support for the economy and workers has been graded 'good'. I don't understand that. The programmes are convoluted and unavailable for weeks, that is at best a 'D'. A simple modest direct from government UBI in the short term would have ticked all the boxes.
If I was to give the government a scorecard on all of the aspects:
ICU capacity increase - A Ventilator procurement - B PPE procurement - F Testing - F Lockdown - E Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
What is the criticism on PPE procurement?
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
UK industry can't make latex or nitrile gloves or respirators or surgical face masks that would pass basic standards.
Why not?
-Glove manufacture is in countries that have at the raw material e.g. Malaysia, Thailand etc.
-Respirators are made on very expensive fully automated machines.
-Single use surgical face masks consist of three layers with the middle layer being critical as this is the barrier / filter. Again their production is fully automated.
Lead time for ordering /acquiring / installing Respirator / Face Mask machines would be around 12 months.
Would it be technically possible to speed up the production of a vaccine if money were no object? Because world governments ought to be able to put up almost unlimited funds in order to help find one.
Possibly - though in reality an awful lot of funding is going into vaccine development, together with the capacity to bulk manufacture (whether from government, industry, or benefactors like Gates). By far and away the largest limiting factor is the time required for clinical trials. Unless you deliberately infect trial subjects after they’ve had their vaccine shot, there is no easy way to speed this up, irrespective of how much you spend. Anything less than eighteen months would be remarkably fast by the standards of vaccine development.
Doesn't a lot depend on who we intend to vaccinate. Vaccination of most under 50s with a vaccine that's not had 10+ years of testing for long term side effects is total madness, particularly where the disease in question has a pretty negligible chance of killing them. We don't really want to have another thalidomide disaster because of our panic over Covid19.
Vaccination of the over 80s with a similarly untested vaccine is much less problematic - the disease is much more dangerous to them, and the chances of them living long enough to develop serious side effects are much lower.
I'm 33, there is no way I'll be letting them vaccinate me for this for at least another 10 years, even if they find a suitable vaccine tomorrow.
Would it be technically possible to speed up the production of a vaccine if money were no object? Because world governments ought to be able to put up almost unlimited funds in order to help find one.
Possibly - though in reality an awful lot of funding is going into vaccine development, together with the capacity to bulk manufacture (whether from government, industry, or benefactors like Gates). By far and away the largest limiting factor is the time required for clinical trials. Unless you deliberately infect trial subjects after they’ve had their vaccine shot, there is no easy way to speed this up, irrespective of how much you spend. Anything less than eighteen months would be remarkably fast by the standards of vaccine development.
Doesn't a lot depend on who we intend to vaccinate. Vaccination of most under 50s with a vaccine that's not had 10+ years of testing for long term side effects is total madness, particularly where the disease in question has a pretty negligible chance of killing them. We don't really want to have another thalidomide disaster because of our panic over Covid19.
Vaccination of the over 80s with a similarly untested vaccine is much less problematic - the disease is much more dangerous to them, and the chances of them living long enough to develop serious side effects are much lower.
I'm 33, there is no way I'll be letting them vaccinate me for this for at least another 10 years, even if they find a suitable vaccine tomorrow.
An observation on lockdown I have been pondering for a few days. I think it bothers those with money more than those of us who don't. The only real difference lockdown has made to me for example is I work from home rather than go into the office and the wednesday night board games are no longer in person we play on line. Same for those of us I know personally.
Even before lockdown we weren't going to pubs and restaurants etc. Why buy two pints of beer in a bar when for not much more you could buy a bottle of smirnoff that lasts two nights. So not being well off even though I earn above median wage I don't see it has changed my life much
They need Boris out there, selling it, day after day. He needs to get better or hand over to a compelling deputy
IIRC it dropped by at least that much a few weeks back but then rebounded. I dont think it will stop being overall positive during the crisis even if in specific issues there is disquiet.
"The women robbed of motherhood by the virus: The Government has halted all IVF treatments due to the pandemic - but biological clocks are still ticking and many distraught couples fear their dreams of parenthood are now over"
"The women robbed of motherhood by the virus: The Government has halted all IVF treatments due to the pandemic - but biological clocks are still ticking and many distraught couples fear their dreams of parenthood are now over"
Is it though, it may sound harsh but my view has always been the nhs shouldn't do IVF but let couples do it privately for the simple reason if you cant afford it privately which is I believe goes from 2.5k per attempt then frankly you can't actually afford to raise a child the cost of which is much higher per year
An observation on lockdown I have been pondering for a few days. I think it bothers those with money more than those of us who don't. The only real difference lockdown has made to me for example is I work from home rather than go into the office and the wednesday night board games are no longer in person we play on line. Same for those of us I know personally.
Even before lockdown we weren't going to pubs and restaurants etc. Why buy two pints of beer in a bar when for not much more you could buy a bottle of smirnoff that lasts two nights. So not being well off even though I earn above median wage I don't see it has changed my life much
Chimes with my experience. Most people weren't traveling for business, enjoying City breaks or eating out and down the pub 3 or 4 nights a week. Quite a few are realising how much of their day they waste commuting. Course, the very poor are.struggling, but they always were.
An observation on lockdown I have been pondering for a few days. I think it bothers those with money more than those of us who don't. The only real difference lockdown has made to me for example is I work from home rather than go into the office and the wednesday night board games are no longer in person we play on line. Same for those of us I know personally.
Even before lockdown we weren't going to pubs and restaurants etc. Why buy two pints of beer in a bar when for not much more you could buy a bottle of smirnoff that lasts two nights. So not being well off even though I earn above median wage I don't see it has changed my life much
Chimes with my experience. Most people weren't traveling for business, enjoying City breaks or eating out and down the pub 3 or 4 nights a week. Quite a few are realising how much of their day they waste commuting. Course, the very poor are.struggling, but they always were.
Nods most of my friends and myself are poor compared to many on this forum. Most really aren't noticing the lockdown apart from if they were furloughed
They need Boris out there, selling it, day after day. He needs to get better or hand over to a compelling deputy
Trouble with asking "is the government response doing OK" is that people may answer no for diametrically opposed reasons. Both lockdown sceptics (I'm increasingly of this view - IMHO the lockdown is now just delaying the inevitable and nuking the economy, we would do better to take the hit and get it over with), and those who think that the government hasn't locked down nearly hard enough will be saying that they are dissatisfied. Unless you ask a better question, you've no idea which way option is swinging, merely that at least one of those camps is gaining adhereants.
Teas ever this though. Witness the unfavourable numbers of Blair. Probably equaĺly split between too Left and too Right.
However will we cope with out tales of the doings of Megan and Harry.....frankly can they just go away and shut up. No one cares
Frankly I am content never to hear from any Royal or ex- Royal ever again. That puts me in a minority, but hey go.
depends on the royal, I think a lot like to hear from the queen....less like to hear from charles...by the time it gets to harry frankly few could give a toss
An observation on lockdown I have been pondering for a few days. I think it bothers those with money more than those of us who don't. The only real difference lockdown has made to me for example is I work from home rather than go into the office and the wednesday night board games are no longer in person we play on line. Same for those of us I know personally.
Even before lockdown we weren't going to pubs and restaurants etc. Why buy two pints of beer in a bar when for not much more you could buy a bottle of smirnoff that lasts two nights. So not being well off even though I earn above median wage I don't see it has changed my life much
It's made a huge difference to my life. I live alone. I didn't used to spend much time in pubs and restaurants, but I did have a very active social life, both around church and a steam railway. I don't particularly miss going for a meal and a couple of pints with the lads from the railway every couple of weeks, but I do miss spending Saturdays drinking tea and fixing steam engines with good mates, and church via YouTube stream is a rather dry experience compared to being there.
Also there's a young lady I'm getting quite fond of, who lives 150 miles away. I've not seen her for around 6 weeks now, and whilst playing board games together over video calls is better than nothing, I'd rather get to see her in person.
The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
An observation on lockdown I have been pondering for a few days. I think it bothers those with money more than those of us who don't. The only real difference lockdown has made to me for example is I work from home rather than go into the office and the wednesday night board games are no longer in person we play on line. Same for those of us I know personally.
Even before lockdown we weren't going to pubs and restaurants etc. Why buy two pints of beer in a bar when for not much more you could buy a bottle of smirnoff that lasts two nights. So not being well off even though I earn above median wage I don't see it has changed my life much
It's made a huge difference to my life. I live alone. I didn't used to spend much time in pubs and restaurants, but I did have a very active social life, both around church and a steam railway. I don't particularly miss going for a meal and a couple of pints with the lads from the railway every couple of weeks, but I do miss spending Saturdays drinking tea and fixing steam engines with good mates, and church via YouTube stream is a rather dry experience compared to being there.
Also there's a young lady I'm getting quite fond of, who lives 150 miles away. I've not seen her for around 6 weeks now, and whilst playing board games together over video calls is better than nothing, I'd rather get to see her in person.
The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
I still have an active social life, on a typical day I converse with 8 or 9 friends via skype, discord, mumble etc. Most of my friends live further than I could visit anyway so no difference there. Wednesday nights were the only time I got physical contact anyway and we just replaced that with online boardgames
If I was to give the government a scorecard on all of the aspects:
ICU capacity increase - A Ventilator procurement - B PPE procurement - F Testing - F Lockdown - E Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
What is the criticism on PPE procurement?
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
UK industry can't make latex or nitrile gloves or respirators or surgical face masks that would pass basic standards.
Why not?
-Glove manufacture is in countries that have at the raw material e.g. Malaysia, Thailand etc.
-Respirators are made on very expensive fully automated machines.
-Single use surgical face masks consist of three layers with the middle layer being critical as this is the barrier / filter. Again their production is fully automated.
Lead time for ordering /acquiring / installing Respirator / Face Mask machines would be around 12 months.
12 months in normal times, when there are production capacities abound.
Of course we're currently not living in normal times. Many of the few companies that have the production lines to build these very complex, very expensive, fully automated machines which can make all these useful things are concentrated in the country I'm commenting from, and from what I can observe the plant engineering industry here is overwhelmed with demand and at the same time struggling with the CV-induced restrictions.
The lead time for projects like these would often extend beyond year's end, anyway, but given what HMG's government seems to aspire to, the process of ordering / acquiring /installing / maintaining these very complex machines may then even become a little bit more difficult.
If I was to give the government a scorecard on all of the aspects:
ICU capacity increase - A Ventilator procurement - B PPE procurement - F Testing - F Lockdown - E Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
What is the criticism on PPE procurement?
We didn't bring UK industry into the tent for it but we did for ventilators. Why the discrepancy, we knew there would be shortages and nationalist strategic export bans. We saw it coming and did nothing. It was a huge error and is costing the lives of frontline workers.
UK industry can't make latex or nitrile gloves or respirators or surgical face masks that would pass basic standards.
Why not?
-Glove manufacture is in countries that have at the raw material e.g. Malaysia, Thailand etc.
-Respirators are made on very expensive fully automated machines.
-Single use surgical face masks consist of three layers with the middle layer being critical as this is the barrier / filter. Again their production is fully automated.
Lead time for ordering /acquiring / installing Respirator / Face Mask machines would be around 12 months.
12 months in normal times, when there are production capacities abound.
Of course we're currently not living in normal times. Many of the few companies that have the production lines to build these very complex, very expensive, fully automated machines which can make all these useful things are concentrated in the country I'm commenting from, and from what I can observe the plant engineering industry here is overwhelmed with demand and at the same time struggling with the CV-induced restrictions.
The lead time for projects like these would often extend beyond year's end, anyway, but given what HMG's government seems to aspire to, the process of ordering / acquiring /installing / maintaining these very complex machines may then even become a little bit more difficult.
“They take a blood test, looking for signs that a patient is about to go into a steep decline. They might suggest hospitalization, even to a patient who has only mild symptoms; the chances of surviving that decline are vastly improved by being in a hospital when it begins,” the New York Times’s Katrin Bennhold wrote.
This not only helps authorities keep tabs on a known patient, but also enables them to intervene at a critical point in the disease’s progression, thereby reducing the chances of death.
Pretty much what I have been arguing. Our stay at home, no community testing policy is leading to a lot of late presentation.
Comments
I must admit that I am at times finding it all a bit exciting. The pandemic has certainly got me out of a rut, and looking at medicine with fresh eyes. I have missed that frisson of danger since I gave up my motorcycle.
In an ideal world we'd test everyone but making the most of limited resources seems sensible.
The potential was addressed all along. The point was made time and again that timing was critical and the timing would have been wrong in January. The timing was deemed right in March. That's a change.
A Swedish type voluntary system coupled with our lackadaisical testing regime would be a recipie for trouble.
These things are not alternatives to each other, they are complementary.
Its like saying "if you have a fever don't work and start self-isolating" and someone takes their temperature daily. Monday to Thursday their temperate is 37.0 and on Friday their temperature is 39.2
On Friday are they wrong to stay home and self-isolating?
On Monday to Thursday were they wrong to work?
ICU capacity increase - A
Ventilator procurement - B
PPE procurement - F
Testing - F
Lockdown - E
Strategic planning - F
Overall - E
Glad I am not in lockdown everyday. It must be a bit boring.
I’d also give them an F for not tasering is enough armchair experts...
By far and away the largest limiting factor is the time required for clinical trials. Unless you deliberately infect trial subjects after they’ve had their vaccine shot, there is no easy way to speed this up, irrespective of how much you spend. Anything less than eighteen months would be remarkably fast by the standards of vaccine development.
Support for economy - Good
Support for workers - Good
Increased NHS bed capacity - Excellent
Ventilators - Good
PPE procurement - Average as per other countries
Testing - Poor
The possibiity of an overload was known (and quoted) in advance. The scientific data changed and with it the advice.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/19/impossible-for-uk-to-meet-covid-19-testing-targets-say-scientists
The government’s target of carrying out 100,000 Covid-19 tests each day by the end of the month has come under criticism from senior scientists, who say it will be impossible to reach.
Experts told the Guardian that a “macho” focus on headline-grabbing figures had been pursued at the expense of rigorous science.
The Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove, said on Sunday that the government was confident that the goal of 100,000 tests daily by the end of April would be met.
However, scepticism is building. On Saturday, only 21,626 tests were carried out.
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said he viewed the target as impossible. “I cannot see that being achieved,” he said. “It was always designed to be a headline grabber rather than anything else.”
Others said a relentless focus on the number of tests performed each day had led to basic data reporting standards falling by the wayside. Prof Sheila Bird, formerly of the Medical Research Council’s biostatistics unit at the University of Cambridge, said: “The level of incompetence in reporting these tests is outrageous.”....
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21223915/coronavirus-germany-france-cases-death-rate
The reason why we in Germany have so few deaths at the moment compared to the number of infected can be largely explained by the fact that we are doing an extremely large number of lab diagnoses,” Christian Drosten, the chief virologist at the Charité hospital in Berlin, told the New York Times this month.
Germany has Europe’s best pharmaceutical industry, allowing it to respond quickly to disease outbreaks. In the case of Covid-19, German laboratories started accumulating testing kits as signs of a global spread became more real in early 2020. These labs were well stocked ahead of Germany’s first confirmed coronavirus case in February.
The Robert Koch Institute’s Degen told me that early testing helped the country’s public health officials get a better understanding of where the outbreaks were and how far the disease had spread before things got out of control. “This is probably why we started to see cases very early, and many cases, and also mild ones,” she said.
This also helps explain why the number of confirmed cases is so high but the number of deaths so small: hundreds of thousands are getting tested each week, and the vast majority of them won’t have a life-threatening case. Every subsequent test, then, makes the infection-to-death ratio smaller and smaller.
But that’s not all: Germany has also gone the extra mile to track those with the disease.
In the city of Heidelberg, for example, the New York Times reports that vehicles known locally as “corona taxis” transport physicians to the homes of those who have been sick for five to six days.
“They take a blood test, looking for signs that a patient is about to go into a steep decline. They might suggest hospitalization, even to a patient who has only mild symptoms; the chances of surviving that decline are vastly improved by being in a hospital when it begins,” the New York Times’s Katrin Bennhold wrote.
This not only helps authorities keep tabs on a known patient, but also enables them to intervene at a critical point in the disease’s progression, thereby reducing the chances of death.
“Testing and tracking is the strategy that was successful in South Korea and we have tried to learn from that,” Hendrik Streeck, who leads the University of Bonn’s virology institute, told the New York Times.
It appears Germany plans to keep up intense tracking for the foreseeable future. “Once ... we are down to, let’s say, a couple of hundred cases per day or even better, less than a hundred cases, we will try to follow up on every case and get in touch with everyone who has been in touch with those new cases, quarantine and test them,” Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist at the University of Cologne, told CNBC on April 3....
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jth.14850
UK industry can't make latex or nitrile gloves or respirators or surgical face masks that would pass basic standards.
https://www.translationalres.com/article/S1931-5244(20)30070-0/pdf
... The respiratory distress syndrome accompanying a subset of severe COVID-19 may be distinct from classic ARDS. There is relatively well-preserved lung mechanics despite the severity of hypoxemia, characterized by high respiratory compliance and high shunt fraction, and increasing recognition of systemic features of a hypercoaguable state in this disease. Therefore, the pathology and pathophysiology of COVID-19 might differ from that of typical ARDS. We sought to define the role of complement activation and microvascular thrombosis in cases of persistent, severe COVID-19.
... A pattern of tissue damage consistent with complement-mediated microvascular injury was noted in the lung and/or skin of five individuals with severe COVID-19. Our demonstration of the striking deposition of C5b-9, C4d, and MASP2 in the microvasculature of two organ systems is consistent with profound and generalized activation of both alternative and lectin-based pathways. It provides a foundation for further exploration of the pathophysiologic importance of complement in COVID-19, and could suggest targets for specific intervention....
From some other correspondents, the support for the economy and workers has been graded 'good'. I don't understand that. The programmes are convoluted and unavailable for weeks, that is at best a 'D'. A simple modest direct from government UBI in the short term would have ticked all the boxes.
-Glove manufacture is in countries that have at the raw material e.g. Malaysia, Thailand etc.
-Respirators are made on very expensive fully automated machines.
-Single use surgical face masks consist of three layers with the middle layer being critical as this is the barrier / filter. Again their production is fully automated.
Lead time for ordering /acquiring / installing Respirator / Face Mask machines would be around 12 months.
Vaccination of the over 80s with a similarly untested vaccine is much less problematic - the disease is much more dangerous to them, and the chances of them living long enough to develop serious side effects are much lower.
I'm 33, there is no way I'll be letting them vaccinate me for this for at least another 10 years, even if they find a suitable vaccine tomorrow.
Even before lockdown we weren't going to pubs and restaurants etc. Why buy two pints of beer in a bar when for not much more you could buy a bottle of smirnoff that lasts two nights. So not being well off even though I earn above median wage I don't see it has changed my life much
"The women robbed of motherhood by the virus: The Government has halted all IVF treatments due to the pandemic - but biological clocks are still ticking and many distraught couples fear their dreams of parenthood are now over"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8234613/The-women-robbed-motherhood-virus.html
This is why he's so much better than Hillary: He talks to the voters he's got, not the voters he wants.
Also there's a young lady I'm getting quite fond of, who lives 150 miles away. I've not seen her for around 6 weeks now, and whilst playing board games together over video calls is better than nothing, I'd rather get to see her in person.
The whole thing is saving me quite a lot of money (most on my petrol bill, and not buying lunch out), so despite my being furloughed and on 80% of wages, I'm ending up with a modist extra monthly surplus, but it's a miserable experience non-the-less.
Of course we're currently not living in normal times.
Many of the few companies that have the production lines to build these very complex, very expensive, fully automated machines which can make all these useful things are concentrated in the country I'm commenting from, and from what I can observe the plant engineering industry here is overwhelmed with demand and at the same time struggling with the CV-induced restrictions.
The lead time for projects like these would often extend beyond year's end, anyway, but given what HMG's government seems to aspire to, the process of ordering / acquiring /installing / maintaining these very complex machines may then even become a little bit more difficult.
Ouch.