If that is indeed the case, it rather dents that Swedish epidemiologist’s stance that the true death rate of coronavirus is no more than one in a thousand.
Literally every resident of NYC would need to have been infected and all survivors would now be immune.
If deaths continue, the death rate is obviously above 0.1%
The difficulty is, of course, obvious once explained.
I really want to see the MCMC version of this, where the plot shows a hundred sets of model parametrs that fit to the data. The large uncertainty in the right hand side would be much more obvious.
It all comes down to the second turning point, without knowing what that level is it is basically impossible to predict an accurate curve.
Yeah, I would like to see a version of this with the 1-sigma confidence interval around the best-fit model plotted. It would only really collapse down once you start to get over the peak. The current animation actually flatters it, as the least-squares fit does a pretty good job even early on.
If that is indeed the case, it rather dents that Swedish epidemiologist’s stance that the true death rate of coronavirus is no more than one in a thousand.
Literally every resident of NYC would need to have been infected and all survivors would now be immune.
If deaths continue, the death rate is obviously above 0.1%
But do we know how many have been infected?
If everyone in NYC has been or currently is infected the death rate is 0.1%, so it can only be higher.
All this stuff is just another wraith in the fog of war. Like criticizing the evacuee policy in the early days of the blitz. Quite possibly justified, but it will be dwarfed by later events
In the end what will matter is the hit to the economy and the death toll. And how that compares to other big Western European countries. Right now we seem to be doing about the same as Italy, france and Holland. Maybe slightly better than Spain. Worse than Germany so far.
But this virus has another 18 months and several waves to come. A long way to go. If we end up much worse than our neighbours then the government will pay. If we don’t, it won’t. And no one knows right now
You surely admit the negligence is jaw dropping?
The model didn't change and therefore the advice changed, as ministers claimed. The base case of half a million deaths was there in plain sight all along. So why did the committees keep the risk rating at low? Ministers not turn up to meetings? The PM go on holiday for two weeks (just a month after his last one)? And they sat on their hands and did almost nothing for six weeks.
Macron is right. A supply side monetary response is urgently required by the EU and the EZ in particular. If it does not happen several EZ countries such as Italy and Spain will have an economic disaster of the sort not seen since Hoover. Its not just a question of whether the EU would survive such a calamity, it is a question of whether it should.
Its back to the fundamental problem of the EU - too much, too fast.
The Germans were told by their leaders that their sacrificing wage increase and being frugal led the the German boom. Which reinforced the notion that Germany was carrying the weight in Europe. In reality, the Euro helped Germany immensely at the expense of other parts of Europe.
In those other parts, the leaders talked of reform. But did not rebuild their economic systems to the German model. Because to even start, would to have been thrown from office, with ignominy. Who now remembers the Professor of economics in Athens, who was pitched out of his job, for suggesting in the boom years that the deficit the government was running was a bad idea? Motorcycle boy said he deserved it (and the death threats) at the time... no apology later.
Either the EU converages to carry out the fiscal transfers required, or they do nothing, or they split.
They will do nothing for as long as possible.
There will need to be fiscal transfers if the Euro is to work long term but that is not the current urgency. What is urgent now is that there is an ECB response similar to that of the BoE and the Fed with a major QE injection to protect the economy from very severe economic damage (some is inevitable). For a single currency bloc that means Coronabonds and the ECB essentially underwriting the bond issues of member states to the extent needed to fund the fiscal response to the crisis. Germany and Holland are blocking this because they can afford a much bigger fiscal response and can borrow pretty much unlimited sums at minimal cost. Spain and Italy can't. Its really shameful.
Coronabonds are a fiscal transfer by another name - putting Germany and the other contributors on the line for the others debts.
Yup. What else did they expect when they all agreed to sign up to a single currency?
The politicians lied to each other and to their electorates.
The Greek politicians said they would become good Germans. The Greek politicians told the electorate that there would be reforms. And then did nothing at the slightest sign of opposition. The Germans told their people that everyone in Europe would become fiscally responsible. And that low wage rises were making Germany competitive and strong. And that big fiscal transfers would not be needed. etc. etc.
Everyone triangulated everyone.
Don't forget to name-check Goldman Sachs (with the Greece debacle).
And don't forget that it's not optimal for neighbouring countries with similar economies who trade a lot together all to have their own silly little currencies.
Using the term “optimal” in this situation implies a specific set of conditions. These were (and are) not met. Hence the Eurozone is not an optimal currency area
That’s a fair cop. I used the wrong word. "Sensible" is better.
It’s not really sensible to force a single currency onto a non-OCA either..
My post with your edit reads as follows -
It is not "sensible" for neighbouring countries with similar economies who trade a lot with each other to all have their own little currencies.
That works.
I think Charles' point is that they don't have similar economies.
Some do. Some don't.
You just need to be similar enough.
And I think his point is they aren't.
Well he's obviously wrong then innit.
If "they" refers to the whole EZ.
What else does the bozo think?
They have capital and labour flows (although labour flows are not that good ex U.K.)
They don’t have a currency risk sharing mechanism.
Basically Spain and Greece get stuffed because Germany isn’t willing to engage is fiscal transfers.
Indeed. There are negatives.
But don't forget the other side of the argument - that sharing a currency brings great efficiencies to a trading zone.
This is what I was keen to stress since it isn't stressed enough IMO.
One thing that I find curious is the apparent policy of discharging patients into care homes. It seems so obviously dangerous, yet they must have thought of this. Do the experts believe that the discharged patients are no longer infectious? If so, I hope they are very sure about this - it would be a bad thing to be mistaken about!
--AS
Inexplicable to me. There is good reason to believe that most transmission now is within residences. Multi occupant residencies in particular.
I think that we should adopt the policy of not discharging patients until they have had negative swabs taken two days apart. It is not as if there is pressure on rehab beds, just Acute Medical and ICU beds.
I was speaking to a Maltese colleague earlier. They admit all patients to an assessment ward for swabs and point of care antibody testing. They get PCR results on the swabs in 6 hours, and don't find the antigen testing reliable. They repeat the swabs as nessecary if clinically suspicious, and often find they need to repeat several times before they become positive.
They have had 3 deaths, which on a per capita basis is one of the best around. Testing and quaratining is the key to getting a low transmission ratio. Lockdown is a very blunt instrument in comparison, and only effective as an adjunct to a proper testing regime.
Some surprising figures on here have suggested that has done nothing more than help people die more comfortably, thus presumably has saved noone, so the thought it has done no good is more widespread than just Hitchens.
If that is indeed the case, it rather dents that Swedish epidemiologist’s stance that the true death rate of coronavirus is no more than one in a thousand.
Literally every resident of NYC would need to have been infected and all survivors would now be immune.
If deaths continue, the death rate is obviously above 0.1%
Maybe the death rate is higher in big cities
NYC is a dirty place
“ — Coronavirus patients in areas that had high levels of air pollution before the pandemic are more likely to die from the infection than patients in cleaner parts of the country, according to a new nationwide study that offers the first clear link between long-term exposure to pollution and Covid-19 death rates.“
Even if it was Hunt is surely favourite to come back as health secretary.
Yeah, it would have to be a previous health secretary, no question.
Unless Hunt refused.
Interestingly, with Clarke’s retirement Hunt is now the only former health secretary left in the Commons. But then it is eight years since Hunt took over from Lansley.
@Big_G_NorthWales Now...all my (Italian) friends...even my mother in law, are homing in on the UK's approach as being catastrophic....this is now being played out on all Italian news....
This is what has prompted my criticism today...not in fact the Times story...but which in itself says it all....where was Boris as the greatest single issue was fast approaching?
CNN...the New York Times..Washington Post....similarly all pointing the fingers at our incompetence...
BBC World News...the same.....
Why have we managed this so appallingly?
Why were we running Cheltenham, having huge indoor concerts, Champions League Matches in March. (when Europe was closed down)..why were we not closing down our airports...even now....why is our testing capacity so poor, even though we have had labs asking to take part....?? So many mistakes...
Why have we ended up with such an inexperienced group of politicians running our Govt who only seem to have been chosen because they sweared loyalty to Brexit....??
Our economy is service led...and dependant on people feeling confident about spending money.....which this pandemic is lasered on....
The incompetence of this Govt will means that the economic impact will be worse than it should have been...but many thousands of people will have died too....
I'm not playing politics...it is just that political leadership matters to people....
It comes down to whether you accept the science you are told or overrule it
The science may or may not be correct but as long as Boris and HMG follows the science there is little else any other poltician would do, hence why Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster are applying it to the devolved nations
To be honest I have not heard of her, other than is she in neighbours ?
You see, I have no time for celebrities and have no interest in them other than when Beckham's wife rips off our taxpayers, including our nurses, by furloughing her employees, without any thought
Shame on her
To be fair to Victoria Beckham she did pay the final 20% of her employees wages the government did not pay
VB Fashion has been close to bankrupt for years. It’s only the directors putting money in (DB) that has kept it afloat.
Sadly, plenty of dead businesses will have been propped up by the government furlough scheme.
The Beckhams combined net worth is £350 million.
Beyond employing 30 people, the main purpose of VB Fashion is to give Victoria something to do now some of her kids have left home
If that is indeed the case, it rather dents that Swedish epidemiologist’s stance that the true death rate of coronavirus is no more than one in a thousand.
Literally every resident of NYC would need to have been infected and all survivors would now be immune.
If deaths continue, the death rate is obviously above 0.1%
Maybe the death rate is higher in big cities
NYC is a dirty place
“ — Coronavirus patients in areas that had high levels of air pollution before the pandemic are more likely to die from the infection than patients in cleaner parts of the country, according to a new nationwide study that offers the first clear link between long-term exposure to pollution and Covid-19 death rates.“
Macron is right. A supply side monetary response is urgently required by the EU and the EZ in particular. If it does not happen several EZ countries such as Italy and Spain will have an economic disaster of the sort not seen since Hoover. Its not just a question of whether the EU would survive such a calamity, it is a question of whether it should.
Its back to the fundamental problem of the EU - too much, too fast.
The Germans were told by their leaders that their sacrificing wage increase and being frugal led the the German boom. Which reinforced the notion that Germany was carrying the weight in Europe. In reality, the Euro helped Germany immensely at the expense of other parts of Europe.
In those other parts, the leaders talked of reform. But did not rebuild their economic systems to the German model. Because to even start, would to have been thrown from office, with ignominy. Who now remembers the Professor of economics in Athens, who was pitched out of his job, for suggesting in the boom years that the deficit the government was running was a bad idea? Motorcycle boy said he deserved it (and the death threats) at the time... no apology later.
Either the EU converages to carry out the fiscal transfers required, or they do nothing, or they split.
They will do nothing for as long as possible.
There will need to be fiscal transfers if the Euro is to work long term but that is not the current urgency. What is urgent now is that there is an ECB response similar to that of the BoE and the Fed with a major QE injection to protect the economy from very severe economic damage (some is inevitable). For a single currency bloc that means Coronabonds and the ECB essentially underwriting the bond issues of member states to the extent needed to fund the fiscal response to the crisis. Germany and Holland are blocking this because they can afford a much bigger fiscal response and can borrow pretty much unlimited sums at minimal cost. Spain and Italy can't. Its really shameful.
Coronabonds are a fiscal transfer by another name - putting Germany and the other contributors on the line for the others debts.
Yup. What else did they expect when they all agreed to sign up to a single currency?
The politicians lied to each other and to their electorates.
The Greek politicians said they would become good Germans. The Greek politicians told the electorate that there would be reforms. And then did nothing at the slightest sign of opposition. The Germans told their people that everyone in Europe would become fiscally responsible. And that low wage rises were making Germany competitive and strong. And that big fiscal transfers would not be needed. etc. etc.
Everyone triangulated everyone.
Don't forget to name-check Goldman Sachs (with the Greece debacle).
And don't forget that it's not optimal for neighbouring countries with similar economies who trade a lot together all to have their own silly little currencies.
Using the term “optimal” in this situation implies a specific set of conditions. These were (and are) not met. Hence the Eurozone is not an optimal currency area
That’s a fair cop. I used the wrong word. "Sensible" is better.
It’s not really sensible to force a single currency onto a non-OCA either..
My post with your edit reads as follows -
It is not "sensible" for neighbouring countries with similar economies who trade a lot with each other to all have their own little currencies.
That works.
I think Charles' point is that they don't have similar economies.
Some do. Some don't.
You just need to be similar enough.
And I think his point is they aren't.
Well he's obviously wrong then innit.
If "they" refers to the whole EZ.
What else does the bozo think?
They have capital and labour flows (although labour flows are not that good ex U.K.)
They don’t have a currency risk sharing mechanism.
Basically Spain and Greece get stuffed because Germany isn’t willing to engage is fiscal transfers.
Indeed. There are negatives.
But don't forget the other side of the argument - that sharing a currency brings great efficiencies to a trading zone.
This is what I was keen to stress since it isn't stressed enough IMO.
If it works. But the social costs are too high unless they are motivated. And German has a “fuck the hindmost” attitude that the alt-right would find refreshing
The difficulty is, of course, obvious once explained.
I really want to see the MCMC version of this, where the plot shows a hundred sets of model parametrs that fit to the data. The large uncertainty in the right hand side would be much more obvious.
It all comes down to the second turning point, without knowing what that level is it is basically impossible to predict an accurate curve.
Yeah, I would like to see a version of this with the 1-sigma confidence interval around the best-fit model plotted. It would only really collapse down once you start to get over the peak. The current animation actually flatters it, as the least-squares fit does a pretty good job even early on.
This is arises in a classic ecological model known as logistic growth. If x is the proportion of infected people in the population the growth rate in exponential growth is proportional to x. In logistic growth it is proportional to x(1-x), and growth stops when the carrying capacity has been reached. In practice this boils down to the familiar problem that we do not know how many people has been infected in a population (yet).
Some broad limits are known. The number of infected people is more than the number who have tested positive and fewer than the total size of the population. That is still a wide range of uncertainty.
Even if it was Hunt is surely favourite to come back as health secretary.
Yeah, it would have to be a previous health secretary, no question.
Unless Hunt refused.
Interestingly, with Clarke’s retirement Hunt is now the only former health secretary left in the Commons. But then it is eight years since Hunt took over from Lansley.
Macron is right. A supply side monetary response is urgently required by the EU and the EZ in particular. If it does not happen several EZ countries such as Italy and Spain will have an economic disaster of the sort not seen since Hoover. Its not just a question of whether the EU would survive such a calamity, it is a question of whether it should.
Its back to the fundamental problem of the EU - too much, too fast.
The Germans were told by their leaders that their sacrificing wage increase and being frugal led the the German boom. Which reinforced the notion that Germany was carrying the weight in Europe. In reality, the Euro helped Germany immensely at the expense of other parts of Europe.
In those other parts, the leaders talked of reform. But did not rebuild their economic systems to the German model. Because to even start, would to have been thrown from office, with ignominy. Who now remembers the Professor of economics in Athens, who was pitched out of his job, for suggesting in the boom years that the deficit the government was running was a bad idea? Motorcycle boy said he deserved it (and the death threats) at the time... no apology later.
Either the EU converages to carry out the fiscal transfers required, or they do nothing, or they split.
They will do nothing for as long as possible.
There will need to be fiscal transfers if the Euro is to work long term but that is not the current urgency. What is urgent now is that there is an ECB response similar to that of the BoE and the Fed with a major QE injection to protect the economy from very severe economic damage (some is inevitable). For a single currency bloc that means Coronabonds and the ECB essentially underwriting the bond issues of member states to the extent needed to fund the fiscal response to the crisis. Germany and Holland are blocking this because they can afford a much bigger fiscal response and can borrow pretty much unlimited sums at minimal cost. Spain and Italy can't. Its really shameful.
Coronabonds are a fiscal transfer by another name - putting Germany and the other contributors on the line for the others debts.
Yup. What else did they expect when they all agreed to sign up to a single currency?
The politicians lied to each other and to their electorates.
The Greek politicians said they would become good Germans. The Greek politicians told the electorate that there would be reforms. And then did nothing at the slightest sign of opposition. The Germans told their people that everyone in Europe would become fiscally responsible. And that low wage rises were making Germany competitive and strong. And that big fiscal transfers would not be needed. etc. etc.
Everyone triangulated everyone.
Don't forget to name-check Goldman Sachs (with the Greece debacle).
And don't forget that it's not optimal for neighbouring countries with similar economies who trade a lot together all to have their own silly little currencies.
Using the term “optimal” in this situation implies a specific set of conditions. These were (and are) not met. Hence the Eurozone is not an optimal currency area
That’s a fair cop. I used the wrong word. "Sensible" is better.
It’s not really sensible to force a single currency onto a non-OCA either..
My post with your edit reads as follows -
It is not "sensible" for neighbouring countries with similar economies who trade a lot with each other to all have their own little currencies.
That works.
It’s wrong though. It’s not sensible to merge currencies unless (a) it is an OCA or (b) you have the political will for sustained fiscal transfers*. The Eurozone has neither.
* Like New York to Arkansas, Paris to the Masif Centrale or England to Scotland for example
Countries have had no problem trading with their next door neighbours in different currencies. The friction is really quite minor as long as no-one does something especially stupid.
Currency union first is getting it the wrong way round - if the EU wanted a single currency, they needed to do about a century of expensive spade work.
IIRC the classic calculations of what fiscal transfers are required suggest that the current EU setup is about 30% of what would actually be the right number.
It does seem as if a lot of government has not learned their lessons from the February inaction, perhaps because they are not willing to admit that they squandered that time. Now they are squandering the time that the lockdown has so expensively bought.
Why do we not have a proper isolation hospital and testing plan for the relaxation period? There is no evidence of strategic thinking at all. Just rabbits in the headlights.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Words are cheap. By taking it on the chin are you arguing that the UK should have let the virus exceed NHS capacity?
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Germany and Norway seem to have done best through mass testing.
Until we get testing and tracing greatly expanded we cannot seriously ease off the lockdown
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
Gosh, today has been bad tempered here! So many keen to assign blame, when the pandemic has barely started. There will be plenty of time to do the accounting on past mistakes, in the years to come. Personally I'm only interested in whether the present course should be changed. I don't see a lot to criticize there (though some have strong views on mask use, for example) but I may be missing some details.
One thing that I find curious is the apparent policy of discharging patients into care homes. It seems so obviously dangerous, yet they must have thought of this. Do the experts believe that the discharged patients are no longer infectious? If so, I hope they are very sure about this - it would be a bad thing to be mistaken about!
--AS
The social care sector primary purpose now is to take the pressure off hospital beds....old people dying in these homes and infecting others is collateral damage....
The NHS couldn't cope without this.....
It is just a matter of fact....
I can't quite follow this theory, though -- aren't there spare beds in hospitals? Quite a lot if you include the pop-up hospitals. I just don't understand why they would do that in this circumstance.
--AS
I don't know if you are being deliberately naive....
The NHS is completely reliant on the social care sector ensuring that bed's are not blocked...
The worst situation would be an inability for the NHS to take sick people from private homes, and people dying along your street who could be treated and retuned home....
It is to the credit of the Govt that the NHS now has capacity to treat Covid patients on this wave (obviously not those from care homes)...it took a huge effort to prepare the hospitals
Old people dying in care homes is harsh....some of them probably could have survived if they had gone into hospital....but I do think if you ask them, and their families they would agree with this strategy....
I absolutely agree with your last paragraph.
Indeed many old people both in care homes and out now have a real fear of going into hospital
Credit where credit is due...the mobilisation of the NHS to deal with the first wave of this crisis is remarkable....
On a personal note...we were faced with the situation two years ago with my father in law in a care home...he got the flu and pneumonia , and we instructed the home to not send him to hospital...he died a couple of weeks later. We didn't want him to go through the distress of going to hospital...and it was the right decision....
You know Tyson my sister wanted to pass in her bed in her nursing home and signed a DNR. The day came when she was dying and the nurse phoned for the doctor to be told the surgery was closed for training, no emergency number was left
The nurse then phoned for an ambulance and when the crew arrived I said she had a dnr and did not want to die in hospital. They said they needed a doctor and we could not get one. The paramedics then asked whether I wanted her to go with them to hospital or to leave her. Now at a time your sister is dying in front of you, and suffering, you are asked to be the one to decide, and as I could not let her continue suffering, I agreed for her to go to hospital
When I arrived in A & E about 20 minutes after the ambulance I was shown to my sister's bedside and the doctor said all treatment was withdrawn and only palliative care adminstered. He said he did not expect her to survive the night
After 5 hours she died and I was then told I would be interviewed by the police because my sister had died in A & E and the police required me to formally identify her body. This I did and after the police interview I went home utterly drained emotionally and physically
I don't know you but that hurts to read. I'm sorry and hope you get through this. Death is a f**ker. We will all have our own stories, some more, some less harrowing. I am so sorry again.
Claim - ‘This was despite the publication that day of an alarming study by Chinese doctors in the medical journal The Lancet. It assessed the lethal potential of the virus, for the first time suggesting it was comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed up to 50 million people.'
Response - The editor of the Lancet, on exactly the same day – 23 January - called for “caution” and accused the media of ‘escalating anxiety by talking of a ‘killer virus’ and ‘growing fears’. He wrote: ‘In truth, from what we currently know, 2019-nCoV has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity. There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language.’ The Sunday Times is suggesting that there was a scientific consensus around the fact that this was going to be a pandemic – that is plainly untrue.
Gosh, today has been bad tempered here! So many keen to assign blame, when the pandemic has barely started. There will be plenty of time to do the accounting on past mistakes, in the years to come. Personally I'm only interested in whether the present course should be changed. I don't see a lot to criticize there (though some have strong views on mask use, for example) but I may be missing some details.
One thing that I find curious is the apparent policy of discharging patients into care homes. It seems so obviously dangerous, yet they must have thought of this. Do the experts believe that the discharged patients are no longer infectious? If so, I hope they are very sure about this - it would be a bad thing to be mistaken about!
--AS
The social care sector primary purpose now is to take the pressure off hospital beds....old people dying in these homes and infecting others is collateral damage....
The NHS couldn't cope without this.....
It is just a matter of fact....
I can't quite follow this theory, though -- aren't there spare beds in hospitals? Quite a lot if you include the pop-up hospitals. I just don't understand why they would do that in this circumstance.
--AS
I don't know if you are being deliberately naive....
The NHS is completely reliant on the social care sector ensuring that bed's are not blocked...
The worst situation would be an inability for the NHS to take sick people from private homes, and people dying along your street who could be treated and retuned home....
It is to the credit of the Govt that the NHS now has capacity to treat Covid patients on this wave (obviously not those from care homes)...it took a huge effort to prepare the hospitals
Old people dying in care homes is harsh....some of them probably could have survived if they had gone into hospital....but I do think if you ask them, and their families they would agree with this strategy....
I absolutely agree with your last paragraph.
Indeed many old people both in care homes and out now have a real fear of going into hospital
Credit where credit is due...the mobilisation of the NHS to deal with the first wave of this crisis is remarkable....
On a personal note...we were faced with the situation two years ago with my father in law in a care home...he got the flu and pneumonia , and we instructed the home to not send him to hospital...he died a couple of weeks later. We didn't want him to go through the distress of going to hospital...and it was the right decision....
You know Tyson my sister wanted to pass in her bed in her nursing home and signed a DNR. The day came when she was dying and the nurse phoned for the doctor to be told the surgery was closed for training, no emergency number was left
The nurse then phoned for an ambulance and when the crew arrived I said she had a dnr and did not want to die in hospital. They said they needed a doctor and we could not get one. The paramedics then asked whether I wanted her to go with them to hospital or to leave her. Now at a time your sister is dying in front of you, and suffering, you are asked to be the one to decide, and as I could not let her continue suffering, I agreed for her to go to hospital
When I arrived in A & E about 20 minutes after the ambulance I was shown to my sister's bedside and the doctor said all treatment was withdrawn and only palliative care adminstered. He said he did not expect her to survive the night
After 5 hours she died and I was then told I would be interviewed by the police because my sister had died in A & E and the police required me to formally identify her body. This I did and after the police interview I went home utterly drained emotionally and physically
That's a tough experience Big G.....
I remember the pressure my wife was under about her dad to get him in into hospital.....I just backed her up not to let him go...but the emotions of those moments are immense
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
Good to hear that your wife gives you some time to yourself.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Germany and Norway seem to have done best through mass testing.
Until we get testing and tracing greatly expanded we cannot seriously ease off the lockdown
Hallelujah....it's a miracle....Hyfud...I agree with you like a 100 gazillion percent...
Isn't Sweden doing a UK-lite though - you can go out and do stuff, but most Swedes simply aren't.
...and hundreds/thousands of elderly people are allegedly dying in care homes of Covid-19 (Guardian).
Tens of thousands of old people are dying in care homes across Europe. In Spain so many are dying the army had to collect the corpses.
Sweden is no better than anywhere else, but, importantly, it is not obviously, massively worse. And they have spared their economy the horrors of total shutdown
Well blow me down. Six weeks ago you were calling for all kinds of draconian measures to keep you free of Covid-19. And here you are from the safety of your Cosmeston Lakes yurt demanding the rest of us go back to work.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Words are cheap. By taking it on the chin are you arguing that the UK should have let the virus exceed NHS capacity?
Words are cheap and i sit here drinking amarone, safe in my Penarth loft, but yes - im coming to think a combination of a beefed up NHS (the nightingale capacity) with a lighter Swedish lockdown might have been better.
It wasn’t possible in wave 1. We weren’t ready. Wave 2 will have a lighter lockdown
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Claim - ‘This was despite the publication that day of an alarming study by Chinese doctors in the medical journal The Lancet. It assessed the lethal potential of the virus, for the first time suggesting it was comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed up to 50 million people.'
Response - The editor of the Lancet, on exactly the same day – 23 January - called for “caution” and accused the media of ‘escalating anxiety by talking of a ‘killer virus’ and ‘growing fears’. He wrote: ‘In truth, from what we currently know, 2019-nCoV has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity. There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language.’ The Sunday Times is suggesting that there was a scientific consensus around the fact that this was going to be a pandemic – that is plainly untrue.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
I isolated for a week, and was indeed ill, though perhaps not with Covid. Now back at work, indeed volunteering to be the assessor of a covid patient today, wearing just mask, polythene apron and gloves.
We all act according to our conscience, if we have one.
Re NYC stats. Need to be a bit careful. There is actually something like 21 million in the NYC metro area (plus all the undocumented). Deaths across that is about 13k.
Then 0.1% claim is nonsense, the eggheads have said they think more like 1%. Also, that is if you healthcare system doesn't crash, which NY has.
We aren't going to be shocked though if we find the rate of infection in NY is among the highest in the world.
Isn't Sweden doing a UK-lite though - you can go out and do stuff, but most Swedes simply aren't.
...and hundreds/thousands of elderly people are allegedly dying in care homes of Covid-19 (Guardian).
Tens of thousands of old people are dying in care homes across Europe. In Spain so many are dying the army had to collect the corpses.
Sweden is no better than anywhere else, but, importantly, it is not obviously, massively worse. And they have spared their economy the horrors of total shutdown
Well blow me down. Six weeks ago you were calling for all kinds of draconian measures to keep you free of Covid-19. And here you are from the safety of your Cosmeston Lakes yurt demanding the rest of us go back to work.
It is human nature. First comes the terror of death. The desire to flee, to hunker down, to cry out for something to save us.
Then, more slowly, comes the realisation. Help is not coming. A vaccine is at least twelve, maybe eighteen, maybe many more months away.
By that time the economy will have crashed. The tax base reduced to cinders. No money to pay for our precious NHS. No money to pay for food. No roof over our head.
And the rational part of the brain starts to realise that there is no alternative. The lockdown bought us a little time to increase NHS capacity, to find better treatment drugs, to reduce deaths wherever possible.
But now the ugly grim truth descends. We must go back to work. Some people will catch this and a small number of them will die. But that is life.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
Are you trying for scumbag of the week or something?
Isn't Sweden doing a UK-lite though - you can go out and do stuff, but most Swedes simply aren't.
...and hundreds/thousands of elderly people are allegedly dying in care homes of Covid-19 (Guardian).
Tens of thousands of old people are dying in care homes across Europe. In Spain so many are dying the army had to collect the corpses.
Sweden is no better than anywhere else, but, importantly, it is not obviously, massively worse. And they have spared their economy the horrors of total shutdown
Well blow me down. Six weeks ago you were calling for all kinds of draconian measures to keep you free of Covid-19. And here you are from the safety of your Cosmeston Lakes yurt demanding the rest of us go back to work.
Yep. I’ve had enough of Shirking Britain. I can’t write my corona memoirs til the rest of you are shucking my oysters again.
Stop faffing. Enough now. I want the seafood bars open
South East Wales is a culinary desert, however Penarth bucks the trend. When you are finally 'out' Mint and Mustard is probably the best up market curry house in Wales. For an excellent value Portuguese menu El Puerto, on the Penarth side of the Cardiff Barage is my favourite eatery anywhere in Wales. And if you want to splash the cash Michelin starred James Sommerin, on the front is sublime.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Words are cheap. By taking it on the chin are you arguing that the UK should have let the virus exceed NHS capacity?
Words are cheap and i sit here drinking amarone, safe in my Penarth loft, but yes - im coming to think a combination of a beefed up NHS (the nightingale capacity) with a lighter Swedish lockdown might have been better.
It wasn’t possible in wave 1. We weren’t ready. Wave 2 will have a lighter lockdown
HYUFD is right. Testing is the key. Test and trace, test and trace.
I bloody hope the government have some people working on the tech required to "trace". Even with this voluntery app, the government needs to know instantly who to call to a testing centre next. That requires tech, as you need to prioritize certain people from the cohort that came close to a new infection. Doing this manually takes too long. Indentification, test and result needs to be completed within 24hrs.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
Are you trying for scumbag of the week or something?
I presume I win it by default most weeks.
I’m just bored of foxy flashing his moral superiority at the rest of us like some raddled old hooker on the Bois de Boulogne, flourishing her withered dugs. Enough. I get it. He’s a doctor. Well done.
Our Nationalism is so much better than anyone else's nationalism.....
Given they are the responsibility of the UK government, surely they have to help them?
And we must be talking a tiny amount. What's the population of the overseas territories anyway?
0.1% of the UK....
No grievance how trivial....
"A far away people of whom we know nothing..."
It's funny how international solidarity goes, when the chips are down.
Who would have thought that a Conservative government would be being criticised for sending medical aid to other countries?
As philosopher and eccentric Lord John Whorfin observed -
"History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."
The headline annoys me. The fact it is a tax haven is almost irrelevant, as the people dying there are ordinary folk, just like everywhere. It should really say "UK PPE earmarked for UK territory"
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Words are cheap. By taking it on the chin are you arguing that the UK should have let the virus exceed NHS capacity?
Words are cheap and i sit here drinking amarone, safe in my Penarth loft, but yes - im coming to think a combination of a beefed up NHS (the nightingale capacity) with a lighter Swedish lockdown might have been better.
It wasn’t possible in wave 1. We weren’t ready. Wave 2 will have a lighter lockdown
HYUFD is right. Testing is the key. Test and trace, test and trace.
I bloody hope the government have some people working on the tech required to "trace". Even with this voluntery app, the government needs to know instantly who to call to a testing centre next. That requires tech, as you need to prioritize certain people from the cohort that came close to a new infection. Doing this manually takes too long. Indentification, test and result needs to be completed within 24hrs.
My understanding was that PHE actually did an excellent job on the tracing whilst it was still a thing, and before we just gave up with a shrug and a "yeah, whatever..."
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Words are cheap. By taking it on the chin are you arguing that the UK should have let the virus exceed NHS capacity?
Words are cheap and i sit here drinking amarone, safe in my Penarth loft, but yes - im coming to think a combination of a beefed up NHS (the nightingale capacity) with a lighter Swedish lockdown might have been better.
It wasn’t possible in wave 1. We weren’t ready. Wave 2 will have a lighter lockdown
HYUFD is right. Testing is the key. Test and trace, test and trace.
I bloody hope the government have some people working on the tech required to "trace". Even with this voluntery app, the government needs to know instantly who to call to a testing centre next. That requires tech, as you need to prioritize certain people from the cohort that came close to a new infection. Doing this manually takes too long. Indentification, test and result needs to be completed within 24hrs.
My understanding was that PHE actually did an excellent job on the tracing whilst it was still a thing, and before we just gave up with a shrug and a "yeah, whatever..."
They did, but they were always fighting a losing battle. If you want to keep things to Souk Korean levels, you can't do this manually, it takes too long.
Claim - ‘This was despite the publication that day of an alarming study by Chinese doctors in the medical journal The Lancet. It assessed the lethal potential of the virus, for the first time suggesting it was comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed up to 50 million people.'
Response - The editor of the Lancet, on exactly the same day – 23 January - called for “caution” and accused the media of ‘escalating anxiety by talking of a ‘killer virus’ and ‘growing fears’. He wrote: ‘In truth, from what we currently know, 2019-nCoV has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity. There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language.’ The Sunday Times is suggesting that there was a scientific consensus around the fact that this was going to be a pandemic – that is plainly untrue.
Isn't Sweden doing a UK-lite though - you can go out and do stuff, but most Swedes simply aren't.
...and hundreds/thousands of elderly people are allegedly dying in care homes of Covid-19 (Guardian).
Tens of thousands of old people are dying in care homes across Europe. In Spain so many are dying the army had to collect the corpses.
Sweden is no better than anywhere else, but, importantly, it is not obviously, massively worse. And they have spared their economy the horrors of total shutdown
Well blow me down. Six weeks ago you were calling for all kinds of draconian measures to keep you free of Covid-19. And here you are from the safety of your Cosmeston Lakes yurt demanding the rest of us go back to work.
Yep. I’ve had enough of Shirking Britain. I can’t write my corona memoirs til the rest of you are shucking my oysters again.
Stop faffing. Enough now. I want the seafood bars open
South East Wales is a culinary desert, however Penarth bucks the trend. When you are finally 'out' Mint and Mustard is probably the best up market curry house in Wales. For an excellent value Portuguese menu El Puerto, on the Penarth side of the Cardiff Barage is my favourite eatery anywhere in Wales. And if you want to splash the cash Michelin starred James Sommerin, on the front is sublime.
Curries here are excellent. I have a theory that curry houses are often a better in the provinces than they are in the metropolis.
I’ve heard james Sommerin is fab. Sadly he’s not even doing takeaway any more but it’s first on the list when the culinary world recrudesces
And thanks for the Portuguese pointer. Will try!
El Puerto is just really good value. Only a little more expensive than more up market pub fare, but head and shoulders better. Most pubs in South Wales by contrast are expensive, add water and stir joints that serve vomit.
You won't be disappointed by Sommerin either, excellent!
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
Are you trying for scumbag of the week or something?
I presume I win it by default most weeks.
I’m just bored of foxy flashing his moral superiority at the rest of us like some raddled old hooker on the Bois de Boulogne, flourishing her withered dugs. Enough. I get it. He’s a doctor. Well done.
Now put it away.
He's put stake in this game. You haven't. Endex.
It doesn’t occur to you that I might have family members, that I love dearly, severely menaced by this disease, right this minute?
It’s a plague. It fucks with everyone. That’s what plagues do
We all have that.
Go visit a hospital. Do some reporting. Get some atmosphere for the next book.
Maybe you will write something to equal this -
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."
Our Nationalism is so much better than anyone else's nationalism.....
Given they are the responsibility of the UK government, surely they have to help them?
And we must be talking a tiny amount. What's the population of the overseas territories anyway?
0.1% of the UK....
No grievance how trivial....
"A far away people of whom we know nothing..."
It's funny how international solidarity goes, when the chips are down.
Who would have thought that a Conservative government would be being criticised for sending medical aid to other countries?
As philosopher and eccentric Lord John Whorfin observed -
"History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."
The headline annoys me. The fact it is a tax haven is almost irrelevant, as the people dying there are ordinary folk, just like everywhere. It should really say "UK PPE earmarked for UK territory"
The people dying there are mostly quite poor, as well. But hey, they have a bit of suntan, so they are expendable?
If anyone is in the south of England go outside and you can see dozens of satellites flying over
Perhaps Coronavirus was sent by space aliens prior to an invasion of Earth.
It is truly amazing to watch
Is Orson Wells doing the commentary by chance?
Well it’s the first time in my life that I have seen anything like it
Are they the Spacex thingies?
Yes - Elon Musk has turned the world upside down again. Launching 60 satellites of this size and capacity on a single rocket was impossible. Then SpaceX did it.
Isn't Sweden doing a UK-lite though - you can go out and do stuff, but most Swedes simply aren't.
...and hundreds/thousands of elderly people are allegedly dying in care homes of Covid-19 (Guardian).
Tens of thousands of old people are dying in care homes across Europe. In Spain so many are dying the army had to collect the corpses.
Sweden is no better than anywhere else, but, importantly, it is not obviously, massively worse. And they have spared their economy the horrors of total shutdown
Well blow me down. Six weeks ago you were calling for all kinds of draconian measures to keep you free of Covid-19. And here you are from the safety of your Cosmeston Lakes yurt demanding the rest of us go back to work.
Yep. I’ve had enough of Shirking Britain. I can’t write my corona memoirs til the rest of you are shucking my oysters again.
Stop faffing. Enough now. I want the seafood bars open
South East Wales is a culinary desert, however Penarth bucks the trend. When you are finally 'out' Mint and Mustard is probably the best up market curry house in Wales. For an excellent value Portuguese menu El Puerto, on the Penarth side of the Cardiff Barage is my favourite eatery anywhere in Wales. And if you want to splash the cash Michelin starred James Sommerin, on the front is sublime.
Curries here are excellent. I have a theory that curry houses are often a better in the provinces than they are in the metropolis.
I’ve heard james Sommerin is fab. Sadly he’s not even doing takeaway any more but it’s first on the list when the culinary world recrudesces
And thanks for the Portuguese pointer. Will try!
For steak, try Asador in Cardiff right by the Millennium Stadium. When it’s open, in the future.
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
Are you trying for scumbag of the week or something?
I presume I win it by default most weeks.
I’m just bored of foxy flashing his moral superiority at the rest of us like some raddled old hooker on the Bois de Boulogne, flourishing her withered dugs. Enough. I get it. He’s a doctor. Well done.
Now put it away.
He's put stake in this game. You haven't. Endex.
It doesn’t occur to you that I might have family members, that I love dearly, severely menaced by this disease, right this minute?
It’s a plague. It fucks with everyone. That’s what plagues do
We all have that.
Go visit a hospital. Do some reporting. Get some atmosphere for the next book.
Maybe you will write something to equal this -
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."
Our Nationalism is so much better than anyone else's nationalism.....
Given they are the responsibility of the UK government, surely they have to help them?
And we must be talking a tiny amount. What's the population of the overseas territories anyway?
0.1% of the UK....
No grievance how trivial....
"A far away people of whom we know nothing..."
It's funny how international solidarity goes, when the chips are down.
Who would have thought that a Conservative government would be being criticised for sending medical aid to other countries?
As philosopher and eccentric Lord John Whorfin observed -
"History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."
The headline annoys me. The fact it is a tax haven is almost irrelevant, as the people dying there are ordinary folk, just like everywhere. It should really say "UK PPE earmarked for UK territory"
The people dying there are mostly quite poor, as well. But hey, they have a bit of suntan, so they are expendable?
That’s dreadful, wearied overwriting. Who wrote it? I’m intrigued by its awfulness, and by the fact you admire it
Hahaha: found it. Theodore Roosevelt.
The difference between you and him is that he'd actually done something. Risked his life for his beliefs and ideas.
Yes, it sounds hackneyed and over-wrought - but, as George MacDonald Fraser pointed out, words spoken by the those who have actually risked their lives often do...
It's funny how international solidarity goes, when the chips are down.
Who would have thought that a Conservative government would be being criticised for sending medical aid to other countries?
As philosopher and eccentric Lord John Whorfin observed -
"History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."
It was even more stupid than that. This morning you could hear a story criticising medical aid being sent to China, apparently this is bad, followed by a story about Turkey sending medical aid to us, apparently this is good.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
I isolated for a week, and was indeed ill, though perhaps not with Covid. Now back at work, indeed volunteering to be the assessor of a covid patient today, wearing just mask, polythene apron and gloves.
We all act according to our conscience, if we have one.
Good man, doing your job. I shall clap for you on Thursday, in between sips of Barolo
I hope you enjoy the wine. I am rather fond of Barolo.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Words are cheap. By taking it on the chin are you arguing that the UK should have let the virus exceed NHS capacity?
Words are cheap and i sit here drinking amarone, safe in my Penarth loft, but yes - im coming to think a combination of a beefed up NHS (the nightingale capacity) with a lighter Swedish lockdown might have been better.
It wasn’t possible in wave 1. We weren’t ready. Wave 2 will have a lighter lockdown
HYUFD is right. Testing is the key. Test and trace, test and trace.
I bloody hope the government have some people working on the tech required to "trace". Even with this voluntery app, the government needs to know instantly who to call to a testing centre next. That requires tech, as you need to prioritize certain people from the cohort that came close to a new infection. Doing this manually takes too long. Indentification, test and result needs to be completed within 24hrs.
My understanding was that PHE actually did an excellent job on the tracing whilst it was still a thing, and before we just gave up with a shrug and a "yeah, whatever..."
this was explained at the time, at the press conference when we moved from contain to delay :absolute case numbers crossed a threshold while too many 'unexplained' clusters were popping up. It would be ineffective use of resources. When/if the numbers fall below a certain level, I fully expect this approach to be revisited.
ALSO "In the coming weeks, we will be introducing further social distancing measures for older and vulnerable people, asking them to self-isolate regardless of symptoms. If we introduce this next stage too early, the measures will not protect us at the time of greatest risk but could have a huge social impact. We need to time this properly, continue to do the right thing at the right time, so we get the maximum effect for delaying the virus. We will clearly announce when we ask the public to move to this next stage."
I had a hollow laugh at that last bit. State of the some of the opinions on here.
It's funny how international solidarity goes, when the chips are down.
Who would have thought that a Conservative government would be being criticised for sending medical aid to other countries?
As philosopher and eccentric Lord John Whorfin observed -
"History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."
It was even more stupid than that. This morning you could hear a story criticising medical aid being sent to China, apparently this is bad, followed by a story about Turkey sending medical aid to us, apparently this is good.
And no commentary on the French nicking the stuff we paid for.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
Says the man who claimed to have coronavirus on Feb 3rd before feeling London to share his contamination with the unsuspecting residents of Penarth!
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
Says the man who claimed to have coronavirus on Feb 3rd before feeling London to share his contamination with the unsuspecting residents of Penarth!
Didn't his prior incarnation already have coronavirus in January too?
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
It's funny how international solidarity goes, when the chips are down.
Who would have thought that a Conservative government would be being criticised for sending medical aid to other countries?
As philosopher and eccentric Lord John Whorfin observed -
"History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."
It was even more stupid than that. This morning you could hear a story criticising medical aid being sent to China, apparently this is bad, followed by a story about Turkey sending medical aid to us, apparently this is good.
And no commentary on the French nicking the stuff we paid for.
On the Chinese aid vs medical aid from Turkey...
Captain Darling : So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshall Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies. General Melchett : Filthy hun weasels, fighting their dirty underhand war! Captain Darling : And fortunately, one of our spies... General Melchett : Splendid fellows, brave heroes risking life and limb for Blighty!
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
Says the man who claimed to have coronavirus on Feb 3rd before feeling London to share his contamination with the unsuspecting residents of Penarth!
Feeling the whole of London was surely a feat too far - even for our SeanT?
It's funny how international solidarity goes, when the chips are down.
Who would have thought that a Conservative government would be being criticised for sending medical aid to other countries?
As philosopher and eccentric Lord John Whorfin observed -
"History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."
It was even more stupid than that. This morning you could hear a story criticising medical aid being sent to China, apparently this is bad, followed by a story about Turkey sending medical aid to us, apparently this is good.
And no commentary on the French nicking the stuff we paid for.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
Says the man who claimed to have coronavirus on Feb 3rd before feeling London to share his contamination with the unsuspecting residents of Penarth!
Feeling the whole of London was surely a feat too far - even for our SeanT?
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Speaks a man who fled the city for a Welsh bunker, expecting others to take it on the chin.
I’m doing what the government told me to do, not get sick, avoid others. Drink expensive wines and eat too much excellent salami. Have kinky quarantine sex. Etc
A brave man dies but once, a coward a thousand times.
Well you must be close to the grave, given that your first reaction to the true onset of coronavirus was to go down with a fake dose of the bug, allowing you to hide at home and do some gardening for a fortnight. And then you tested negative. Lol
Says the man who claimed to have coronavirus on Feb 3rd before feeling London to share his contamination with the unsuspecting residents of Penarth!
Didn't his prior incarnation already have coronavirus in January too?
Maybe he fled London to avoid being the subject of research studies, his medical history being so remarkable and all that.
It's funny how international solidarity goes, when the chips are down.
Who would have thought that a Conservative government would be being criticised for sending medical aid to other countries?
As philosopher and eccentric Lord John Whorfin observed -
"History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."
It was even more stupid than that. This morning you could hear a story criticising medical aid being sent to China, apparently this is bad, followed by a story about Turkey sending medical aid to us, apparently this is good.
And no commentary on the French nicking the stuff we paid for.
I’m increasingly of the mind that SWEDEN got it right and we should have stayed with herd immunity and a mild lockdown. This virus is a fucker whatever you do. Nothing works. It’s so persistent.
We should have isolated the vulnerable and taken it on the chin thereafter
Words are cheap. By taking it on the chin are you arguing that the UK should have let the virus exceed NHS capacity?
Words are cheap and i sit here drinking amarone, safe in my Penarth loft, but yes - im coming to think a combination of a beefed up NHS (the nightingale capacity) with a lighter Swedish lockdown might have been better.
It wasn’t possible in wave 1. We weren’t ready. Wave 2 will have a lighter lockdown
HYUFD is right. Testing is the key. Test and trace, test and trace.
I bloody hope the government have some people working on the tech required to "trace". Even with this voluntery app, the government needs to know instantly who to call to a testing centre next. That requires tech, as you need to prioritize certain people from the cohort that came close to a new infection. Doing this manually takes too long. Indentification, test and result needs to be completed within 24hrs.
My understanding was that PHE actually did an excellent job on the tracing whilst it was still a thing, and before we just gave up with a shrug and a "yeah, whatever..."
this was explained at the time, at the press conference when we moved from contain to delay :absolute case numbers crossed a threshold while too many 'unexplained' clusters were popping up. It would be ineffective use of resources. When/if the numbers fall below a certain level, I fully expect this approach to be revisited.
ALSO "In the coming weeks, we will be introducing further social distancing measures for older and vulnerable people, asking them to self-isolate regardless of symptoms. If we introduce this next stage too early, the measures will not protect us at the time of greatest risk but could have a huge social impact. We need to time this properly, continue to do the right thing at the right time, so we get the maximum effect for delaying the virus. We will clearly announce when we ask the public to move to this next stage."
I had a hollow laugh at that last bit. State of the some of the opinions on here.
I think the March 11th decision to no longer test apparant cases was one of the major mistakes. Diagnosis and testing are crucial to quarantining the right people, even if resources are not there to trace all their contacts.
It was the same mistake in America, where the rules restricting testing were ridiculously exclusive, even when sustained transmission was happening.
Testing, and quarantining is the only short term way of relaxing the lockdown. Transmission within restrictive spaces whether household, care home, aircraft carrier, church or ski chalet is where it happens.
While there will be some asymptomatic superspreaders, quarantining known cases will greatly reduce transmission, getting that R number right down.
Our national policy of not seeing, or confirming cases until they are desperately sick is throwing petrol on the fire.
Yes capacity being overran as occured in Wuhan, Italy and New York was a real concern. It hasn't happened in this country though - so seems an odd thing to criticise our government's response for?
The tweet is dated Jan 25th.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Yes the Tweet is dated Jan 25th and the government initiated a plan and advised in the future there might be a lockdown if required to prevent the NHS capacity being overran, but it was a later stage in the plan and not required at the time. Horton himself retweeted later in January that a lockdown at the time would be a bad idea.
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?
Comments
It is still policy.
The model didn't change and therefore the advice changed, as ministers claimed. The base case of half a million deaths was there in plain sight all along. So why did the committees keep the risk rating at low? Ministers not turn up to meetings? The PM go on holiday for two weeks (just a month after his last one)? And they sat on their hands and did almost nothing for six weeks.
But don't forget the other side of the argument - that sharing a currency brings great efficiencies to a trading zone.
This is what I was keen to stress since it isn't stressed enough IMO.
I think that we should adopt the policy of not discharging patients until they have had negative swabs taken two days apart. It is not as if there is pressure on rehab beds, just Acute Medical and ICU beds.
I was speaking to a Maltese colleague earlier. They admit all patients to an assessment ward for swabs and point of care antibody testing. They get PCR results on the swabs in 6 hours, and don't find the antigen testing reliable. They repeat the swabs as nessecary if clinically suspicious, and often find they need to repeat several times before they become positive.
They have had 3 deaths, which on a per capita basis is one of the best around. Testing and quaratining is the key to getting a low transmission ratio. Lockdown is a very blunt instrument in comparison, and only effective as an adjunct to a proper testing regime.
“ — Coronavirus patients in areas that had high levels of air pollution before the pandemic are more likely to die from the infection than patients in cleaner parts of the country, according to a new nationwide study that offers the first clear link between long-term exposure to pollution and Covid-19 death rates.“
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/climate/air-pollution-coronavirus-covid.html
Some broad limits are known. The number of infected people is more than the number who have tested positive and fewer than the total size of the population. That is still a wide range of uncertainty.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1251968286474059782?s=20
Currency union first is getting it the wrong way round - if the EU wanted a single currency, they needed to do about a century of expensive spade work.
IIRC the classic calculations of what fiscal transfers are required suggest that the current EU setup is about 30% of what would actually be the right number.
https://covid19.gov.gg/test-results
https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1251970574865199104?s=20
Our Nationalism is so much better than anyone else's nationalism.....
Why do we not have a proper isolation hospital and testing plan for the relaxation period? There is no evidence of strategic thinking at all. Just rabbits in the headlights.
And we must be talking a tiny amount. What's the population of the overseas territories anyway?
Until we get testing and tracing greatly expanded we cannot seriously ease off the lockdown
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1251971825854296065?s=20
Response - The editor of the Lancet, on exactly the same day – 23 January - called for “caution” and accused the media of ‘escalating anxiety by talking of a ‘killer virus’ and ‘growing fears’. He wrote: ‘In truth, from what we currently know, 2019-nCoV has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity. There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language.’ The Sunday Times is suggesting that there was a scientific consensus around the fact that this was going to be a pandemic – that is plainly untrue.
https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/17/care-homes-and-covid19/
I remember the pressure my wife was under about her dad to get him in into hospital.....I just backed her up not to let him go...but the emotions of those moments are immense
No grievance how trivial....
We all act according to our conscience, if we have one.
Then 0.1% claim is nonsense, the eggheads have said they think more like 1%. Also, that is if you healthcare system doesn't crash, which NY has.
We aren't going to be shocked though if we find the rate of infection in NY is among the highest in the world.
Then, more slowly, comes the realisation. Help is not coming. A vaccine is at least twelve, maybe eighteen, maybe many more months away.
By that time the economy will have crashed. The tax base reduced to cinders. No money to pay for our precious NHS. No money to pay for food. No roof over our head.
And the rational part of the brain starts to realise that there is no alternative. The lockdown bought us a little time to increase NHS capacity, to find better treatment drugs, to reduce deaths wherever possible.
But now the ugly grim truth descends. We must go back to work. Some people will catch this and a small number of them will die. But that is life.
Someone looked at the minutes (Thread)
https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712?s=20
https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607457257205761?s=20
Who would have thought that a Conservative government would be being criticised for sending medical aid to other countries?
As philosopher and eccentric Lord John Whorfin observed -
"History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."
For Part 2, they've sent the virus ahead of the invasion fleet...
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/1221051729317453826?s=19
Or this:
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/1223261774369128449?s=09
And I am sure our lockdown sceptics approve of this line that he retweeted on 30 Jan:
https://twitter.com/JenniferNuzzo/status/1222892226784530432?s=09
Daily repost: the Government's attempts to conduct #ToryGenocie are hindered by their making all evidence open source.
You won't be disappointed by Sommerin either, excellent!
Go visit a hospital. Do some reporting. Get some atmosphere for the next book.
Maybe you will write something to equal this -
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." The people dying there are mostly quite poor, as well. But hey, they have a bit of suntan, so they are expendable?
This is for Starlink - LEO satellite internet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink
this is really forensically done as well. should perhaps not be hiding on a gov.uk website
Yes, it sounds hackneyed and over-wrought - but, as George MacDonald Fraser pointed out, words spoken by the those who have actually risked their lives often do...
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-government-announces-moving-out-of-contain-phase-and-into-delay
ALSO
"In the coming weeks, we will be introducing further social distancing measures for older and vulnerable people, asking them to self-isolate regardless of symptoms.
If we introduce this next stage too early, the measures will not protect us at the time of greatest risk but could have a huge social impact. We need to time this properly, continue to do the right thing at the right time, so we get the maximum effect for delaying the virus. We will clearly announce when we ask the public to move to this next stage."
I had a hollow laugh at that last bit. State of the some of the opinions on here.
It coincided with the Jan 24th edition of The Lancet, Britain's top medical journal. This contained several articles on the subject.
Yet somehow it seems the government advisors were unaware until March that there was a risk of overloading the system if the disease got established here.
The evidence was out there. The ridiculous "the science changed" line is absurd.
Captain Darling : So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshall Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.
General Melchett : Filthy hun weasels, fighting their dirty underhand war!
Captain Darling : And fortunately, one of our spies...
General Melchett : Splendid fellows, brave heroes risking life and limb for Blighty!
Have you got a link?
Maybe he fled London to avoid being the subject of research studies, his medical history being so remarkable and all that.
It was the same mistake in America, where the rules restricting testing were ridiculously exclusive, even when sustained transmission was happening.
Testing, and quarantining is the only short term way of relaxing the lockdown. Transmission within restrictive spaces whether household, care home, aircraft carrier, church or ski chalet is where it happens.
While there will be some asymptomatic superspreaders, quarantining known cases will greatly reduce transmission, getting that R number right down.
Our national policy of not seeing, or confirming cases until they are desperately sick is throwing petrol on the fire.
Spain 198,674 +4,258 21,238 +1,195
1,195 new deaths last 24 hours according to worldometers
(Irish health minister)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8234615/Ireland-pubs-bars-sports-venues-closed-coronavirus-vaccine.html
Later in March they implemented that pre-announced plan when it became judged likely that the NHS would be overloaded without one.
In January, February, March and April to date the NHS has not been overloaded.
Seems like they've addressed Horton's concerns in that Tweet appropriately have they not? Or are you saying the NHS was overloaded and if so when and where?