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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will be Sir Keir Starmer’s successor?

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    alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    tyson said:

    alterego said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    "Suspicious" is a gross understatement.

    Our fatality figures are very suspicious too....thousands dying in care homes....
    We are publishing them. You have selective receptors.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    Scott_xP said:

    We get a PM who delegates and he's criticised for not being a control freak who does everything himself.

    No, he is criticized for not wanting to do ANYTHING that looks like work himself...
    Is he? I thought he was being criticised for not charing a meeting he wasn't supposed to chair in the first place.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,528
    GIN1138 said:

    Already considering Sir Kier's replacement?

    In the words of Blue Eyes - You're riding high in April, shot down in May.

    That's Life!

    A pump and dump article like this ought to be aiming higher than 25/1. If Starmer sticks around and does the Kinnock job, we ought to be searching for the next generation long shot that will finally see Labour back into power. MPs like Stella Creasy and Wes Streeting would be where my money is going. I’m happy to sit on a bet for five to ten years at their sort of odds.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Sandpit said:

    Excellent Ch4 series on Putin - which I think sums him up well - he's a weak man whose only focus is hanging on to power. He must be terrified by the knowledge that nothing lasts forever.

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/putin-a-russian-spy-story/on-demand/69173-001

    Looking at the graph of case reports and deaths, by far the steepest curve of any country is now Russia, with the outbreak centered on Moscow - another city that's very densely populated.
    Many of the new Chinese cases are among Chinese nationals returning from Russia.

    The influx of Chinese nationals returning from Moscow has turned the sleepy border town, which has a population of 70,000, into China’s new Covid-19 hotspot.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/unease-at-the-border-russia-and-china-seek-to-downplay-covid-19-outbreak-in-suifenhe
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited April 2020
    Re: Betting on Labour's next leader -

    Sorry but with Keir Starmer likely to remain in place for at least the next 6-8 years and possibly for a good deal longer, I fail to see how giving a bookie an interest-free loan, not to mention trusting on his very survival ... something which can no longer be taken as a given, not to mention the possible imposition of taxes on winnings and this is certainly not a bet I would wish to take on.

    A bet which I feel offers far better value right now is the 5/4 (2.25) from various bookies available on Labour winning the Welsh Assembly Elections to be held in just over a year's time.
    After the devastating report in today's Sunday Times on the totally inept way in which the Tory Cabinet in general and Boris Johnson in particular has tackled the Covid-19 epidemic over the past 3 months, Labour would seem to be an absolute shoo in.

    As ever, DYOR.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,908
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
    What percentage did Boris miss in February?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Scott_xP said:

    We get a PM who delegates and he's criticised for not being a control freak who does everything himself.

    No, he is criticized for not wanting to do ANYTHING that looks like work himself...
    Your tweet claimed Five meetings not all meetings
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
    What percentage did Boris miss in February?
    Zero? Missing implies he was supposed to attend in the first place.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rather ridiculous thread header given Starmer has only been in the job less than a month.

    If Starmer loses the next general election then it would suggest one more heave was not enough and David Miliband could make a return or Liz Kendall or even Chuka Umunna could defect back again if Labour was desperate for a Blairite to take them back to power after a Brownite failed to deliver as the Corbynites had not.

    If Starmer ends up PM after the next general election then whoever holds the senior Cabinet posts will be favourite

    This is politicalbetting dot com, we're doing what it says on the tin.

    Heck we were discussing the 2012 Presidential nominees before Obama was even elected in 2008.
    In 2023 maybe it might be appropriate, not 4 years before Starmer's first general election
    Nah, we started writing/betting on the successors to Brown, Miliband E, and Corbyn the day or days after they became leader.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
    I have been supportive of the Government throughout this crisis, but however you couch the idea that Boris 'missed' five Cobra meetings, justified or not, it looks awful
  • Options
    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,908
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
    What percentage did Boris miss in February?
    Zero? Missing implies he was supposed to attend in the first place.
    Really Cobra meetings on the most important issue for decades are not scheduled into the PMs diary.

    What a shocking revelation.

    Thanks for shedding light on that
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    FPT Absolutely agree with that Floater

    My hospital now has 26 of 32 ventilators in use and has had 63 deaths in last 3 weeks

    High point was 13/4/20 when only 1 vent was spare

    The pre Covid Vent capacity was 22 so still using some of boosted Capacity

    These people who obsess about ending the already looser than some countries "lockdown" have their priorities completely wrong.

    We defintely need to start treating more non Covid patients who must he suffering now
    There's a big problem heading the NHS's way later this summer and into the Autumn. Backlog of elective surgery. Cancellation of "non-urgent" operations that WILL have to be recategorized as urgent in six months time. Huge numbers of doctors and nurses who will have basically gone months without a holiday needing to be given time off. Oh, and the standard winter crisis.

    Oh, and COVID-19 second wave...

    It might be that the first level of lockdown reduction - after the COVID19 numbers have gone down and testing allows you to declare *some* hospitals COVID19 free - would be to start to work through the medical backlog.
    My duties are to run a skeleton non covid service for the urgent stuff. We have plenty of capacity to do so, and have adapted things for maximum safety. The hard bit is getting the patients to turn up, they are so shit-scared.

    Mind you, we did get one the other day that flustered sister a bit. Had positive Covid-19 swabs 12 days prior that no one had told him about. Took a while to clean up the waiting area.

    As Dr Rosena says in her tweets above, we are terrible at isolating cases for the 14 days required (7 days in UK for some unknown reason). It is going to be very hard to get R below 1 without isolating cases.
    I know a Doctor...who after self isolating for a week still with a persistent cough was told to return to work....and then he was tested after he returned was found to be positive, and told he was still needed to come in- but to wear a mask...

    The NHS has mobilised to provide capacity for people (outside care homes) who cannot breathe after 7 days of suffering at home.....to be honest that's probably worth a grade C....but at the expense of pretty much the other aspects of a functional NHS....

    But...we are going to have the worst Covid fatality rate of any progressive economy....

    And...we are probably be going to struggle to get out of lock down...and be the last to do so....

    And...our service based, gig economy is going to be the worst hit, and take the longest to dig ourselves out...

    So all in all...our Govt has handled this appallingly....
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
    What percentage did Boris miss in February?
    Zero? Missing implies he was supposed to attend in the first place.
    Really Cobra meetings on the most important issue for decades are not scheduled into the PMs diary.

    What a shocking revelation.

    Thanks for shedding light on that
    I assume there are many meetings on important issues he doesn't attend. But that's how government works.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
    I have been supportive of the Government throughout this crisis, but however you couch the idea that Boris 'missed' five Cobra meetings, justified or not, it looks awful
    Yeah, so it's obvious why people are so keen on propagating it.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    alterego said:

    tyson said:

    alterego said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    "Suspicious" is a gross understatement.

    Our fatality figures are very suspicious too....thousands dying in care homes....
    We are publishing them. You have selective receptors.
    Where...give me the source? The daily total is hospital deaths....

    The Govt has projected that there may be a further 1000 or so in care homes...but it's obviously, staying the bleeding obvious...that the numbers dying in care homes are about 50% of those dying in hospitals....
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Sir Gavin! And PB Tories laugh heartily at Starmer's lack of charisma.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971
    Scott_xP said:
    So, in Blair and Brown's time, it was only ever called a "COBRA Meeting" if the PM was there.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    tyson said:

    alterego said:

    tyson said:

    alterego said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    "Suspicious" is a gross understatement.

    Our fatality figures are very suspicious too....thousands dying in care homes....
    We are publishing them. You have selective receptors.
    Where...give me the source? The daily total is hospital deaths....

    The Govt has projected that there may be a further 1000 or so in care homes...but it's obviously, staying the bleeding obvious...that the numbers dying in care homes are about 50% of those dying in hospitals....
    The ONS.
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,809
    OT: BBC2 is currently showing the 1982 Snooker World Final if anyone is missing their sporting fix.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    Pike doing the briefing today. I'm not sure lugubrious funeral director is the best look....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcone
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,908
    Michael Gove confirmed Boris Johnson missed five consecutive emergency meetings backtracking on what he had said earlier

    FIVE CONSECUTIVE EMERGENCY meetings.

    Gove backtracking surely not!!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2020/apr/19/michael-gove-says-boris-johnson-didnt-miss-cobra-meetings-then-backtracks-in-same-day-video
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371
    edited April 2020
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
    I have been supportive of the Government throughout this crisis, but however you couch the idea that Boris 'missed' five Cobra meetings, justified or not, it looks awful
    Yeah, so it's obvious why people are so keen on propagating it.
    Well, by my reckoning it was Gove who threw him under the bus this morning.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,395

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimT said:

    @ TSE I think we need a thread on the various voting systems so that we can understand your comment "the flawless alternative vote system" fully and in context. Could you rustle something up for us?

    I’ll try and get said piece written for next weekend.
    Perhaps a companion piece on the Epicurian perfection of pineapple on pizza?
    I've eaten a lot of pizza in my time and have never been tempted to put pineapple on it. I find it a rather odd idea, frankly.
    It's ghastly.

    I am more interested by discovering that bacon on pizza is heresy, according to the Italians.

    Don't they know everything is better with bacon?
    Well, yes, that obviously works. Bacon is a close relative of the thing without which a pizza is not really a pizza - pepperoni.

    And of course you have the ritual of plucking each piece off and eating it with your fingers first. Anybody who says they don't do that is a person of very dubious character indeed.
    But Italians will tell you bacon on pizza is a crime almost as bad as pineapple...
    Really? Well tough. Pizza has gone global. The Italians have lost ownership. It belongs to you and me and everyone. Them's the rules.

    That said, I believe the Italians also say the base must be thin and biscuity, and they have my passionate support on that one.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    alterego said:

    tyson said:

    alterego said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    "Suspicious" is a gross understatement.

    Our fatality figures are very suspicious too....thousands dying in care homes....
    We are publishing them. You have selective receptors.
    Where...give me the source? The daily total is hospital deaths....

    The Govt has projected that there may be a further 1000 or so in care homes...but it's obviously, staying the bleeding obvious...that the numbers dying in care homes are about 50% of those dying in hospitals....
    The ONS.
    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1249978915541655554?s=20
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    Pike doing the briefing today. I'm not sure lugubrious funeral director is the best look....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcone

    He is putting me to sleep. He is poor
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,211

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476
    MattW said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    On my walk earlier saw very few people about and those that were about were very much keeping their social distance
    I'm seeing moderately more around, but still tiny numbers.

    I have seen exactly one chipshop open.
    Just one? Something fishy there.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,806
    tlg86 said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
    May somehow encouraged him.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476
    edited April 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    In fairness, Brown at least tended to call them as a publicity exercise.

    ‘There is an emergency!’

    ‘What’s the PM doing?’

    ‘He’s chaired a COBRA meeting!’

    Some senior officials got pretty fed up with him over it.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    I thought Liam Fox had left the cabinet?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,874
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    On my walk earlier saw very few people about and those that were about were very much keeping their social distance
    I'm seeing moderately more around, but still tiny numbers.

    I have seen exactly one chipshop open.
    Just one? Something fishy there.
    They are probably in a difficult situation, between a rock salmon and a hard plaice.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
    Not according to the teachers I know.

    I think that decision to cancel the exams/school year may come back to haunt the government, something the government is now looking to change according to The Sunday Times.

    FWIW - It isn't something I'm going to criticise the government/Gavin Williamson for, given the hectic issues caused by a pandemic, it's not fair for them being overcautious.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have just been out on Cannock Chase on my bike ride.

    Lockdown is over. I’ve only ever twice seen it busier.

    And with the car parks shut, they’ve just parked on the roads.

    Is it simply the product of very nice weather and nothing else to do?

    So long as all those people aren't clustering in groups, organising football matches or staging an impromptu mock-up of Glastonbury then it really shouldn't make much difference.

    FWIW I reckon it's maybe marginally, but not significantly, busier around here. Probably saw a few more cars about when I was out running this morning than could be plausibly accounted for by folk driving up the heath to do walks and exercise their dogs, especially since it was too early for the shops to be open, but no obvious widespread disobedience. Certainly I can see most of the railway station car park from my flat and there's only one car parked in it.

    Based on this and on the levels of traffic I saw out on Easter Day, I reckon there are some people out and about because they can't resist the urge to visit family and friends, but not particularly large numbers.
    On my walk earlier saw very few people about and those that were about were very much keeping their social distance
    I'm seeing moderately more around, but still tiny numbers.

    I have seen exactly one chipshop open.
    Just one? Something fishy there.
    They are probably in a difficult situation, between a rock salmon and a hard plaice.
    Is that your sole contribution? If so, I will conclude you have been battered into submission.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,051

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
    I have been supportive of the Government throughout this crisis, but however you couch the idea that Boris 'missed' five Cobra meetings, justified or not, it looks awful

    Comrade...how could you be supportive???...seeing Matt Hancock at all- he's an imbecile...., Patel's apology for us feeling sorry, the missing Boris, the herd, Cheltenham...six weeks of doing fuck all.....completely disregarding the social care sector....

    This Govt is a shambles, an embarrassment...it's like watching a Carry on Movie...Carry on Zombie Apocalypse 2020...

    This Govt's abject incompetence and dereliction of duty is criminal...and is profoundly destroying our economy and killing thousands...

    And guess what...the final scene...when all hope is gone...these fucking idiots are still talking about Brexit deadlines....
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    edited April 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    I thought Liam Fox had left the cabinet?
    He has, we now have two disgraced national security risks in cabinet.

    One's in charge of MI5 and the police, other is in charge of educating our kids.

    Plus I think Boris Johnson can easily become the victim of a Russian honeytrap.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476

    tlg86 said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
    Not according to the teachers I know.

    I think that decision to cancel the exams/school year may come back to haunt the government, something the government is now looking to change according to The Sunday Times.
    Sorry, what?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,902
    Foxy said:


    My duties are to run a skeleton non covid service for the urgent stuff. We have plenty of capacity to do so, and have adapted things for maximum safety. The hard bit is getting the patients to turn up, they are so shit-scared.

    Mind you, we did get one the other day that flustered sister a bit. Had positive Covid-19 swabs 12 days prior that no one had told him about. Took a while to clean up the waiting area.

    As Dr Rosena says in her tweets above, we are terrible at isolating cases for the 14 days required (7 days in UK for some unknown reason). It is going to be very hard to get R below 1 without isolating cases.

    That's a key point about non-Covid patients being terrified of attending hospital - how do we get past this preconception or misconception that hospitals are full of Covid-19 and people should therefore avoid them? The capacity is clearly there but there's a key message needing to be communicated about the availability of certain hospitals in certain areas to begin to take non-Covid patients.

    The other key point is the different messages about isolation - I must confess I thought it was 14 days if the symptoms developed but I've read people are still contagious even after that 14 days has elapsed which, as others have said, might explain how we are still seeing infections.

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,664
    tyson said:

    alterego said:

    tyson said:

    alterego said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    "Suspicious" is a gross understatement.

    Our fatality figures are very suspicious too....thousands dying in care homes....
    We are publishing them. You have selective receptors.
    Where...give me the source? The daily total is hospital deaths....

    The Govt has projected that there may be a further 1000 or so in care homes...but it's obviously, staying the bleeding obvious...that the numbers dying in care homes are about 50% of those dying in hospitals....
    The ONS is including every death with mentions COVID19 on the death certificate or in the coroners report.

    Doctors have been instructed that they should put COVID19 on the death depreciate on the basis of "clinical judgement", if a test result is not available

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020

    etc...
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,592
    Dominic Raab is doing an excellent job as acting prime minister. Or do I mean an awful one? Or is the reason we've not had three weeks of Raab threads is that no-one here or elsewhere believes Boris has delegated any authority whatsoever?

    Skipping meetings is not delegation. Not reading briefs is not delegation. Centralising power at Number 10 and leaving a vacuum when Boris and Cummings are both off is not delegation.

    But you know what? It does not even matter. If we beat the pandemic, Boris will be king of the world. If not, bye bye Boris. Simples.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476
    edited April 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    I thought Liam Fox had left the cabinet?
    He has, we now have two disgraced national security risks in cabinet.

    One's in charge of MI5 and the police, other is in charge of educating our kids.

    Plus I think Boris Johnson can easily become the victim of a Russian honeytrap.
    I was going to say, I think Boris Johnson is in charge of both of them.

    But perhaps a man with two faces counts for two risks?

    However, the question is, Huawei talking about taking today’s briefing?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371
    tyson said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Were they occurring as frequently then?
    I have been supportive of the Government throughout this crisis, but however you couch the idea that Boris 'missed' five Cobra meetings, justified or not, it looks awful

    Comrade...how could you be supportive???...seeing Matt Hancock at all- he's an imbecile...., Patel's apology for us feeling sorry, the missing Boris, the herd, Cheltenham...six weeks of doing fuck all.....completely disregarding the social care sector....

    This Govt is a shambles, an embarrassment...it's like watching a Carry on Movie...Carry on Zombie Apocalypse 2020...

    This Govt's abject incompetence and dereliction of duty is criminal...and is profoundly destroying our economy and killing thousands...

    And guess what...the final scene...when all hope is gone...these fucking idiots are still talking about Brexit deadlines....
    Primarily because I don't want Boris spooked into doing something ridiculous that will raise his short term stock, but ultimately prove to be very dangerous.

    Williamson currently drowning in a sea of slurry. Pull him out before it is too late!
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
    Not according to the teachers I know.

    I think that decision to cancel the exams/school year may come back to haunt the government, something the government is now looking to change according to The Sunday Times.
    Sorry, what?
    Senior ministers have drawn up a three-phase plan to lift the coronavirus lockdown that would see schools reopen as early as May 11.

    Under “traffic light” proposals to be presented to Boris Johnson when he returns to work, schools would reopen in three weeks’ time, with pupils of different age groups taught for only part of the week or every other week to aid social distancing.

    The first pupils invited back would include primary school children and those in years 10 and 12 who are due to sit GCSEs and A-levels next year...

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ministers-plan-for-schools-to-reopen-in-three-weeks-wr7wnskj0
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476
    edited April 2020

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
    Not according to the teachers I know.

    I think that decision to cancel the exams/school year may come back to haunt the government, something the government is now looking to change according to The Sunday Times.
    Sorry, what?
    Senior ministers have drawn up a three-phase plan to lift the coronavirus lockdown that would see schools reopen as early as May 11.

    Under “traffic light” proposals to be presented to Boris Johnson when he returns to work, schools would reopen in three weeks’ time, with pupils of different age groups taught for only part of the week or every other week to aid social distancing.

    The first pupils invited back would include primary school children and those in years 10 and 12 who are due to sit GCSEs and A-levels next year...

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ministers-plan-for-schools-to-reopen-in-three-weeks-wr7wnskj0
    So, just to be clear - you’re not saying that they have changed their mind about cancelling exams?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371

    Dominic Raab is doing an excellent job as acting prime minister. Or do I mean an awful one? Or is the reason we've not had three weeks of Raab threads is that no-one here or elsewhere believes Boris has delegated any authority whatsoever?

    Skipping meetings is not delegation. Not reading briefs is not delegation. Centralising power at Number 10 and leaving a vacuum when Boris and Cummings are both off is not delegation.

    But you know what? It does not even matter. If we beat the pandemic, Boris will be king of the world. If not, bye bye Boris. Simples.

    Yes he will, until the inevitable economic catastrophe, that is beyond his control sets in.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    This site seems to fall into two stalls .

    Those who refuse to criticize the government regardless of what they do or have done , they simply refuse to accept the PM has done anything wrong and those who think the government have been useless regardless .

    The truth is somewhere in between.
  • Options
    @ydoethur

    Here's a non paywalled version.

    School leaders have called for an end to “irresponsible speculation” over dates for schools in England to reopen, as ministers were forced to reject suggestions that many pupils would be back in classrooms next month.

    The Sunday Times claimed that “senior ministers” had backed a plan for schools to partially reopen on three possible dates: immediately after the current lockdown is scheduled to end on 11 May; after the half-term holiday on 1 June; or at the start of the school year in September.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/19/teachers-england-condemn-speculation-school-reopenings-coronavirus-lockdown
  • Options
    Gavin Williamson is out of his depth and is not helping HMG
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,908
    Boris Johnson missed five consecutive emergency meetings

    Can any of the PMs normal defenders give their best shot at defending why?

    Big G? RobD?

    Johnson joins an important lunar new year dragon eyes ritual on the day of a Cobra meeting is not an acceptable answer.

    Thanks in advance
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,049
    CatMan said:

    OT: BBC2 is currently showing the 1982 Snooker World Final if anyone is missing their sporting fix.

    Interesting choice. Reardon vs Higgins.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,395

    HYUFD said:

    Rather ridiculous thread header given Starmer has only been in the job less than a month.

    If Starmer loses the next general election then it would suggest one more heave was not enough and David Miliband could make a return or Liz Kendall or even Chuka Umunna could defect back again if Labour was desperate for a Blairite to take them back to power after a Brownite failed to deliver as the Corbynites had not.

    If Starmer ends up PM after the next general election then whoever holds the senior Cabinet posts will be favourite

    This is politicalbetting dot com, we're doing what it says on the tin.

    Heck we were discussing the 2012 Presidential nominees before Obama was even elected in 2008.
    I like Allin- Khan. She is one of only a handful of MPs who's stock is genuinely on the ascent during this crisis.

    At the GE she did blot her copybook somewhat, by ripping-off Boris' hilarious Love Actually spoof before he did his.
    :smile:

    Yes, it was disappointing. It was clear to all that "Boris" would at some point very soon be shaping a PPB around that iconic Hugh Grant scene and she went and spiked it. Petty.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,809
    nico67 said:

    This site seems to fall into two stalls .

    Those who refuse to criticize the government regardless of what they do or have done , they simply refuse to accept the PM has done anything wrong and those who think the government have been useless regardless .

    The truth is somewhere in between.

    Like Brexit. Either the EU is perfect, or it's the worst thing ever invented.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rather ridiculous thread header given Starmer has only been in the job less than a month.

    If Starmer loses the next general election then it would suggest one more heave was not enough and David Miliband could make a return or Liz Kendall or even Chuka Umunna could defect back again if Labour was desperate for a Blairite to take them back to power after a Brownite failed to deliver as the Corbynites had not.

    If Starmer ends up PM after the next general election then whoever holds the senior Cabinet posts will be favourite

    This is politicalbetting dot com, we're doing what it says on the tin.

    Heck we were discussing the 2012 Presidential nominees before Obama was even elected in 2008.
    I like Allin- Khan. She is one of only a handful of MPs who's stock is genuinely on the ascent during this crisis.

    At the GE she did blot her copybook somewhat, by ripping-off Boris' hilarious Love Actually spoof before he did his.
    :smile:

    Yes, it was disappointing. It was clear to all that "Boris" would at some point very soon be shaping a PPB around that iconic Hugh Grant scene and she went and spiked it. Petty.
    Andrew Lincoln scene.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018

    Boris Johnson missed five consecutive emergency meetings

    Can any of the PMs normal defenders give their best shot at defending why?

    Big G? RobD?

    Johnson joins an important lunar new year dragon eyes ritual on the day of a Cobra meeting is not an acceptable answer.

    Thanks in advance

    I already have. He didn't miss them if he wasn't supposed to attend them in the first place.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
    Not according to the teachers I know.

    I think that decision to cancel the exams/school year may come back to haunt the government, something the government is now looking to change according to The Sunday Times.
    Sorry, what?
    Senior ministers have drawn up a three-phase plan to lift the coronavirus lockdown that would see schools reopen as early as May 11.

    Under “traffic light” proposals to be presented to Boris Johnson when he returns to work, schools would reopen in three weeks’ time, with pupils of different age groups taught for only part of the week or every other week to aid social distancing.

    The first pupils invited back would include primary school children and those in years 10 and 12 who are due to sit GCSEs and A-levels next year...

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ministers-plan-for-schools-to-reopen-in-three-weeks-wr7wnskj0
    So, just to be clear - you’re not saying that they have changed their mind about cancelling exams?
    No, the cancelled exams are still cancelled, but schools may reopen in a little over 3 weeks.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476

    @ydoethur

    Here's a non paywalled version.

    School leaders have called for an end to “irresponsible speculation” over dates for schools in England to reopen, as ministers were forced to reject suggestions that many pupils would be back in classrooms next month.

    The Sunday Times claimed that “senior ministers” had backed a plan for schools to partially reopen on three possible dates: immediately after the current lockdown is scheduled to end on 11 May; after the half-term holiday on 1 June; or at the start of the school year in September.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/19/teachers-england-condemn-speculation-school-reopenings-coronavirus-lockdown

    Thank you. I had a momentary panic that my GCSE and A-level classes might be told to take exams without any revision, which would not have been pleasant for them. I say that not forgetting I have been furious at the decision to cancel exams.

    To quote CS Forester:

    Order, counter-order, disorder.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    tlg86 said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
    Not according to the teachers I know.

    I think that decision to cancel the exams/school year may come back to haunt the government, something the government is now looking to change according to The Sunday Times.

    FWIW - It isn't something I'm going to criticise the government/Gavin Williamson for, given the hectic issues caused by a pandemic, it's not fair for them being overcautious.
    There have also been grumblings amongst the education profession about the difficulty, if not the impossibility, of enforcing social distancing regulations in full schools, and at least one of the teaching unions has started to demand PPE as a pre-condition of agreeing to go back to work.

    If the teachers insist on a supply of hazmat suits for them and the kids before the schools re-open, then the schools may not re-open for years, let alone for delayed exams or even in September.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371
    edited April 2020

    Gavin Williamson is out of his depth and is not helping HMG

    ... and drowning in his own BS!
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    @ydoethur

    Here's a non paywalled version.

    School leaders have called for an end to “irresponsible speculation” over dates for schools in England to reopen, as ministers were forced to reject suggestions that many pupils would be back in classrooms next month.

    The Sunday Times claimed that “senior ministers” had backed a plan for schools to partially reopen on three possible dates: immediately after the current lockdown is scheduled to end on 11 May; after the half-term holiday on 1 June; or at the start of the school year in September.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/19/teachers-england-condemn-speculation-school-reopenings-coronavirus-lockdown

    Thank you. I had a momentary panic that my GCSE and A-level classes might be told to take exams without any revision, which would not have been pleasant for them. I say that not forgetting I have been furious at the decision to cancel exams.

    To quote CS Forester:

    Order, counter-order, disorder.
    Yeah, I think the government are regretting cancelling the exams when they did, rather than postponing then making a final decision later on.
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    England reported hospital deaths way down on previous days (482 vs well over 700 for each of the last three days).

    Unfortunately, it looks to be at least mostly a weekend reporting delay rather than a genuine dropoff. Development percentages are generally in line with two weeks ago, but strangely the bank holiday weekend showed absolutely no signs of similar behaviour.

    Assuming two weeks ago is the pattern to follow, tomorrow will also be similarly light and everyone will get really excited, and then there'll be a glut on Monday which will depress everyone again.

    Slightly worrying that there has been no discernible drop in daily rate for over two weeks now.

    On topic, hell will freeze over before Labour members elect a woman. Ignoring that non-fact, I vaguely like the look of Bridget Phillipson, albeit not particularly at 50-1.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088
    edited April 2020

    tlg86 said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
    Not according to the teachers I know.

    I think that decision to cancel the exams/school year may come back to haunt the government, something the government is now looking to change according to The Sunday Times.

    FWIW - It isn't something I'm going to criticise the government/Gavin Williamson for, given the hectic issues caused by a pandemic, it's not fair for them being overcautious.
    There have also been grumblings amongst the education profession about the difficulty, if not the impossibility, of enforcing social distancing regulations in full schools, and at least one of the teaching unions has started to demand PPE as a pre-condition of agreeing to go back to work.

    If the teachers insist on a supply of hazmat suits for them and the kids before the schools re-open, then the schools may not re-open for years, let alone for delayed exams or even in September.
    Are the teachers going to be round the bike of the bike sheds? Or has that scenario changed since my children's days?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,395
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Was he supposed to chair them? Sounds like he wasn't.
    May was criticised for being a control freak for wanting to do everything herself.

    We get a PM who delegates and he's criticised for not being a control freak who does everything himself.

    Yes, the best leaders and managers know how to delegate eg Churchill, Blair and Reagan and Boris.

    Control freaks like Nixon, May and Brown rarely prosper in the top job.
    Delegating is great. But perhaps one can overdo it? End up looking plain lazy?

    It does happen. We've all seen it.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371

    Gavin Williamson is out of his depth and is not helping HMG

    To be fair BigG. he looks impressive compared with the ridiculous woman next to him.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476
    Andy_JS said:

    CatMan said:

    OT: BBC2 is currently showing the 1982 Snooker World Final if anyone is missing their sporting fix.

    Interesting choice. Reardon vs Higgins.
    There are some genuine classics going to be shown. The 85 final of course, but also the best match I’ve seen, which was the 99 semi-final between Hendry and O’Sullivan. That was a sensational display by Hendry just at the end of his glory days and O’Sullivan at his mercurial best.

    Full list is here:

    World Snooker Championship: BBC to show classic Crucible matches
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/52231678
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    And this is why the government doesn't want to stay in. They'd be on the hook for billions.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,664
    ydoethur said:

    @ydoethur

    Here's a non paywalled version.

    School leaders have called for an end to “irresponsible speculation” over dates for schools in England to reopen, as ministers were forced to reject suggestions that many pupils would be back in classrooms next month.

    The Sunday Times claimed that “senior ministers” had backed a plan for schools to partially reopen on three possible dates: immediately after the current lockdown is scheduled to end on 11 May; after the half-term holiday on 1 June; or at the start of the school year in September.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/19/teachers-england-condemn-speculation-school-reopenings-coronavirus-lockdown

    Thank you. I had a momentary panic that my GCSE and A-level classes might be told to take exams without any revision, which would not have been pleasant for them. I say that not forgetting I have been furious at the decision to cancel exams.

    To quote CS Forester:

    Order, counter-order, disorder.
    I believe the 11 May part of the story was specifically denied.

    Given the schools were shut, what other options were there to abandoning the exams?

    Genuine question.

    I can't see an answer that works - getting kit in place to provide online lessons for every child in every state school will take a serious amount of time.

    The disruption would massively impact results.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,806



    Gavin Williamson is out of his depth and is not helping HMG

    ... and drowning in his own BS!
    He's doing fine, but he's doing fine as a very junior minister.

    Hopefully he'll learn from that and we won't hear from him for about ten years.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476

    ydoethur said:

    @ydoethur

    Here's a non paywalled version.

    School leaders have called for an end to “irresponsible speculation” over dates for schools in England to reopen, as ministers were forced to reject suggestions that many pupils would be back in classrooms next month.

    The Sunday Times claimed that “senior ministers” had backed a plan for schools to partially reopen on three possible dates: immediately after the current lockdown is scheduled to end on 11 May; after the half-term holiday on 1 June; or at the start of the school year in September.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/19/teachers-england-condemn-speculation-school-reopenings-coronavirus-lockdown

    Thank you. I had a momentary panic that my GCSE and A-level classes might be told to take exams without any revision, which would not have been pleasant for them. I say that not forgetting I have been furious at the decision to cancel exams.

    To quote CS Forester:

    Order, counter-order, disorder.
    Yeah, I think the government are regretting cancelling the exams when they did, rather than postponing then making a final decision later on.
    What’s infuriating is it was such an obvious mistake to make and one that was clear to anyone who knew what they were doing at the time.

    PPE they might get away with, given half the stuff is rubbish from China and half has been nicked by the French.

    But they absolutely own this disaster.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    tyson said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    Can you please stop peddling this herd immunity, wishful thinking nonsense.....it's a vaccine, or a gamechanging anti-viral, or massive testing and contact tracing that gets us out of this....
    What do you think a vaccine gives - a clue, it's herd immunity.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,664

    tlg86 said:

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Has his stock not risen...
    Not according to the teachers I know.

    I think that decision to cancel the exams/school year may come back to haunt the government, something the government is now looking to change according to The Sunday Times.

    FWIW - It isn't something I'm going to criticise the government/Gavin Williamson for, given the hectic issues caused by a pandemic, it's not fair for them being overcautious.
    There have also been grumblings amongst the education profession about the difficulty, if not the impossibility, of enforcing social distancing regulations in full schools, and at least one of the teaching unions has started to demand PPE as a pre-condition of agreeing to go back to work.

    If the teachers insist on a supply of hazmat suits for them and the kids before the schools re-open, then the schools may not re-open for years, let alone for delayed exams or even in September.
    I do not see how social distancing can be imposed in the case of primary schools. Small children are not that disciplined.

    I could see 5th & 6th formers managing it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,664
    Andy_JS said:

    CatMan said:

    OT: BBC2 is currently showing the 1982 Snooker World Final if anyone is missing their sporting fix.

    Interesting choice. Reardon vs Higgins.

    Ah, Higgins. A tragedy....
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,908
    RobD said:

    Boris Johnson missed five consecutive emergency meetings

    Can any of the PMs normal defenders give their best shot at defending why?

    Big G? RobD?

    Johnson joins an important lunar new year dragon eyes ritual on the day of a Cobra meeting is not an acceptable answer.

    Thanks in advance

    I already have. He didn't miss them if he wasn't supposed to attend them in the first place.
    Oh right thats a horrendously lame effort.

    I hoped you might have something better.

    So basically not attending a single Cobra from the end of January to the end of February is OK in your book. OMG

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476
    edited April 2020

    ydoethur said:

    @ydoethur

    Here's a non paywalled version.

    School leaders have called for an end to “irresponsible speculation” over dates for schools in England to reopen, as ministers were forced to reject suggestions that many pupils would be back in classrooms next month.

    The Sunday Times claimed that “senior ministers” had backed a plan for schools to partially reopen on three possible dates: immediately after the current lockdown is scheduled to end on 11 May; after the half-term holiday on 1 June; or at the start of the school year in September.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/19/teachers-england-condemn-speculation-school-reopenings-coronavirus-lockdown

    Thank you. I had a momentary panic that my GCSE and A-level classes might be told to take exams without any revision, which would not have been pleasant for them. I say that not forgetting I have been furious at the decision to cancel exams.

    To quote CS Forester:

    Order, counter-order, disorder.
    I believe the 11 May part of the story was specifically denied.

    Given the schools were shut, what other options were there to abandoning the exams?

    Genuine question.

    I can't see an answer that works - getting kit in place to provide online lessons for every child in every state school will take a serious amount of time.

    The disruption would massively impact results.
    But that’s the point. Schools are not shut. I am back at work tomorrow.

    If they could be kept open to babysit the children of key workers, they could have been kept open for exam classes.

    At any rate, the option could have been left open until now, rather than being closed off so early.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    A Key G.O.P. Strategy: Blame China. But Trump Goes Off Message.
    Republicans increasingly believe that elevating China’s culpability for spreading the coronavirus may be the best way to improve their difficult election chances. The president is muddying the message.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/us/politics/trump-china-virus.html
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,387

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    Oh it's the disgraced national security risk doing the presser.

    ???
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,395
    TimT said:

    tyson said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    Can you please stop peddling this herd immunity, wishful thinking nonsense.....it's a vaccine, or a gamechanging anti-viral, or massive testing and contact tracing that gets us out of this....
    What do you think a vaccine gives - a clue, it's herd immunity.
    Only if enough people take it.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018

    RobD said:

    Boris Johnson missed five consecutive emergency meetings

    Can any of the PMs normal defenders give their best shot at defending why?

    Big G? RobD?

    Johnson joins an important lunar new year dragon eyes ritual on the day of a Cobra meeting is not an acceptable answer.

    Thanks in advance

    I already have. He didn't miss them if he wasn't supposed to attend them in the first place.
    Oh right thats a horrendously lame effort.

    I hoped you might have something better.

    So basically not attending a single Cobra from the end of January to the end of February is OK in your book. OMG

    See the various tweets posted above. These meetings are apparently far more common these days, so having the PM there is not needed unless an important decision needed to be made. Do you really think these meetings occur in a vacuum, and that the PM isn't kept informed of what is going on?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,049
    "My lawyer friends (and I) like to think ourselves educated; we’re well-travelled, worldly people. Most of us went to Oxford, Cambridge, or Edinburgh. This isn’t to boast, because it’s acutely embarrassing to those who consider themselves rational, above the fray, or members of some sort of Oxbridge and Ancient Scottish meritocracy when Chris Lockwood, Europe Editor of The Economist and former No 10 policy wonk comes out with “this is not someone who was at death’s door a few days ago,” then moves onto “something incredibly fishy about the whole business”. FT columnist Frances Coppola, who got wonderfully Biblical, followed Lockwood off the next cliff over shortly thereafter. “Oh what a surprise, he discharged himself on Easter Sunday,” she intoned. “I have no doubt he was seriously ill, but stage-managing this to make it look like he is Jesus is ridiculous”."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/conspiracies-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,908
    Omnium said:



    Gavin Williamson is out of his depth and is not helping HMG

    ... and drowning in his own BS!
    He's doing fine, but he's doing fine as a very junior minister.

    Hopefully he'll learn from that and we won't hear from him for about ten years.

    He is doing better than Pritti IMO
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,902


    I believe the 11 May part of the story was specifically denied.

    Given the schools were shut, what other options were there to abandoning the exams?

    Genuine question.

    I can't see an answer that works - getting kit in place to provide online lessons for every child in every state school will take a serious amount of time.

    The disruption would massively impact results.

    The Mail on Sunday was flying a huge kite this morning - it looked as though they were trying to bounce Johnson into easing the lockdown.

    I can only imagine the economic impact is now being seen as a political impact - the longer it goes on, the deeper the hole, the worse it will come to be for Johnson, Sunak and the Conservatives down the line.

    The school return in Denmark has only been for the very youngest and as Australia has shown many parents will need a lot of convincing it's safe before they allow their children to return.

    As with trying to persuade non-Covid patients to return to Nerys's empty hospitals, it's all about confidence. People are scared of this virus - I'm scared - and it's going to need a much bigger and sustained fall in deaths and cases before I am prepared to risk my life.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476

    Andy_JS said:

    CatMan said:

    OT: BBC2 is currently showing the 1982 Snooker World Final if anyone is missing their sporting fix.

    Interesting choice. Reardon vs Higgins.

    Ah, Higgins. A tragedy....
    R Higgins is a cricketer. This is A Higgins.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,395

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rather ridiculous thread header given Starmer has only been in the job less than a month.

    If Starmer loses the next general election then it would suggest one more heave was not enough and David Miliband could make a return or Liz Kendall or even Chuka Umunna could defect back again if Labour was desperate for a Blairite to take them back to power after a Brownite failed to deliver as the Corbynites had not.

    If Starmer ends up PM after the next general election then whoever holds the senior Cabinet posts will be favourite

    This is politicalbetting dot com, we're doing what it says on the tin.

    Heck we were discussing the 2012 Presidential nominees before Obama was even elected in 2008.
    I like Allin- Khan. She is one of only a handful of MPs who's stock is genuinely on the ascent during this crisis.

    At the GE she did blot her copybook somewhat, by ripping-off Boris' hilarious Love Actually spoof before he did his.
    :smile:

    Yes, it was disappointing. It was clear to all that "Boris" would at some point very soon be shaping a PPB around that iconic Hugh Grant scene and she went and spiked it. Petty.
    Andrew Lincoln scene.
    Oh god yes!

    Brainfade or what.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    TimT said:

    tyson said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    Can you please stop peddling this herd immunity, wishful thinking nonsense.....it's a vaccine, or a gamechanging anti-viral, or massive testing and contact tracing that gets us out of this....
    What do you think a vaccine gives - a clue, it's herd immunity.
    Only if enough people take it.
    If a safe and reliable vaccine can be found then I would hope and expect that everyone would be forced by law to have it. Of course, most people will be banging on the doors of GP surgeries demanding the thing, but the refuseniks surely can't be tolerated?

    This is not a situation in which society can afford to indulge the hurt feelings of paranoid anti-vaxxers and fringe religious cults.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,664
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    @ydoethur

    Here's a non paywalled version.

    School leaders have called for an end to “irresponsible speculation” over dates for schools in England to reopen, as ministers were forced to reject suggestions that many pupils would be back in classrooms next month.

    The Sunday Times claimed that “senior ministers” had backed a plan for schools to partially reopen on three possible dates: immediately after the current lockdown is scheduled to end on 11 May; after the half-term holiday on 1 June; or at the start of the school year in September.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/19/teachers-england-condemn-speculation-school-reopenings-coronavirus-lockdown

    Thank you. I had a momentary panic that my GCSE and A-level classes might be told to take exams without any revision, which would not have been pleasant for them. I say that not forgetting I have been furious at the decision to cancel exams.

    To quote CS Forester:

    Order, counter-order, disorder.
    I believe the 11 May part of the story was specifically denied.

    Given the schools were shut, what other options were there to abandoning the exams?

    Genuine question.

    I can't see an answer that works - getting kit in place to provide online lessons for every child in every state school will take a serious amount of time.

    The disruption would massively impact results.
    But that’s the point. Schools are not shut. I am back at work tomorrow.

    If they could be kept open to babysit the children of key workers, they could have been kept open for exam classes.

    At any rate, the option could have been left open until now, rather than being closed off so early.
    If kept open for GCSE and A level student, what percentage of the school attending population would be going to school?

    Again, a genuine request for knowledge.

    Am I correct, that the percentage of children currently in school is a single digit percentage of the normal number?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371
    Omnium said:



    Gavin Williamson is out of his depth and is not helping HMG

    ... and drowning in his own BS!
    He's doing fine, but he's doing fine as a very junior minister.

    Hopefully he'll learn from that and we won't hear from him for about ten years.

    He is the Secretary of State for Education!!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476
    Omnium said:



    Gavin Williamson is out of his depth and is not helping HMG

    ... and drowning in his own BS!
    He's doing fine, but he's doing fine as a very junior minister.

    Hopefully he'll learn from that and we won't hear from him for about ten years.

    It should be noted he is enormously popular in his constituency (which is fifty yards from my front door). Much more popular than Patrick Cormack, which is not to say Cormack was unpopular.

    Yes, I know Bromptonaut hates him, but Bromptonaut hates everybody.
  • Options

    Boris Johnson missed five consecutive emergency meetings

    Can any of the PMs normal defenders give their best shot at defending why?

    Big G? RobD?

    Johnson joins an important lunar new year dragon eyes ritual on the day of a Cobra meeting is not an acceptable answer.

    Thanks in advance

    The firestorm against Boris is plainly out of control and I reject the hysteria around the Sunday Times story. The Cobra meetings in February were taken by the health secretary as the advice was not at that stage at the level it rose to in early march when Boris took control.

    Of course the attacks are coming from a remain element and are vociferous as they hope to use this crisis to abort brexit and Boris stands in the way. This same group does not comment of on the requestioning of our PPE supplies from a French manufacturing company in 'an everyone for themselves move'

    I expect to get a slew of attacks for making a case for Boris and I do accept mistakes have been made, but any future enquiry will have to ascertain if and by how much Boris overlooked or disregarded the scientific advise

    Furthermore, Cobra meetings are attended by the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland representing the SNP, Labour and the DUP, and they have acted in lockstep with HMG and there is no criticism coming from them

    You asked for a defence and this is a respectful response

    Even today the polls idicate HMG retains the support of voters
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,387
    alterego said:

    tyson said:

    alterego said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Page 22 of the Sunday Times points out that the Wuhan death toll increased by exactly 50% (to the nearest whole number) from 2,579 to 3,869 which seems rather suspicious.

    Chinese reported figures are suspicious, who'd have thought that?
    "Suspicious" is a gross understatement.

    Our fatality figures are very suspicious too....thousands dying in care homes....
    We are publishing them. You have selective receptors.
    The attempts to smear Boris are really very nasty . I dont like Boris but a smear is a smear.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,664
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    CatMan said:

    OT: BBC2 is currently showing the 1982 Snooker World Final if anyone is missing their sporting fix.

    Interesting choice. Reardon vs Higgins.

    Ah, Higgins. A tragedy....
    R Higgins is a cricketer. This is A Higgins.
    I'll get your coat. Is it the one with the cricket ball or the snooker chalk?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,899
    kinabalu said:

    TimT said:

    tyson said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    Can you please stop peddling this herd immunity, wishful thinking nonsense.....it's a vaccine, or a gamechanging anti-viral, or massive testing and contact tracing that gets us out of this....
    What do you think a vaccine gives - a clue, it's herd immunity.
    Only if enough people take it.
    Of course.
    Though there is also the technique of ring vaccination for controlling local outbreaks.

    The WHO caveats are pretty generic ones. As far as this particular virus is concerned, it is quite likely that a vaccine which provides effective protection for some years will be developed.
    Though it’s probably true that the first vaccines available (likely the RNA ones) might be only partly effective.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    kinabalu said:

    TimT said:

    tyson said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So nearly 22,000 tests yesterday but Capacity is now approaching 40,000. Time for all those NHS staff treating Covid 19 patients to get their tests whether or not they are symptomatic

    More frontline symptomatic is the next expansion.
    A small research project by Stanford using antibody testing concluded that California's true COVID exposure is 50-100 x the reported positives from testing. I take that as good news - it means we'll get to herd immunity quicker and that, even if the implication is that the R0 is higher than previously calculated, that the social distancing is working despite that higher R0
    Yet we never reach herd immunity if the worries from the WHO yesterday turn out to be accurate.
    Missed it. Is that the worry that asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic persons are not developing high antibody titres?
    Can you please stop peddling this herd immunity, wishful thinking nonsense.....it's a vaccine, or a gamechanging anti-viral, or massive testing and contact tracing that gets us out of this....
    What do you think a vaccine gives - a clue, it's herd immunity.
    Only if enough people take it.
    OK, let's rephrase it. The aim of a comprehensive vaccination programme is herd immunity.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,476
    edited April 2020

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    @ydoethur

    Here's a non paywalled version.

    School leaders have called for an end to “irresponsible speculation” over dates for schools in England to reopen, as ministers were forced to reject suggestions that many pupils would be back in classrooms next month.

    The Sunday Times claimed that “senior ministers” had backed a plan for schools to partially reopen on three possible dates: immediately after the current lockdown is scheduled to end on 11 May; after the half-term holiday on 1 June; or at the start of the school year in September.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/19/teachers-england-condemn-speculation-school-reopenings-coronavirus-lockdown

    Thank you. I had a momentary panic that my GCSE and A-level classes might be told to take exams without any revision, which would not have been pleasant for them. I say that not forgetting I have been furious at the decision to cancel exams.

    To quote CS Forester:

    Order, counter-order, disorder.
    I believe the 11 May part of the story was specifically denied.

    Given the schools were shut, what other options were there to abandoning the exams?

    Genuine question.

    I can't see an answer that works - getting kit in place to provide online lessons for every child in every state school will take a serious amount of time.

    The disruption would massively impact results.
    But that’s the point. Schools are not shut. I am back at work tomorrow.

    If they could be kept open to babysit the children of key workers, they could have been kept open for exam classes.

    At any rate, the option could have been left open until now, rather than being closed off so early.
    If kept open for GCSE and A level student, what percentage of the school attending population would be going to school?

    Again, a genuine request for knowledge.

    Am I correct, that the percentage of children currently in school is a single digit percentage of the normal number?
    Well, yes, because the rest of them have been banned from attending.

    There was no noticeable impact on attendance among pupils until that happened.

    We did have some problems with staffing but they could have been overcome if just 11, 12 and 13 had been in school.
This discussion has been closed.