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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At what stage is lockdown going to crumble?

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  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    .
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:
    Sorry, this chart is really fucking bothering me.

    On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

    The ONS deaths figures are here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and they don't agree with the chart either.

    This chart is just wrong.
    Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.
    If you are offended by my swearing please stop posting graphs filled with bogus data and even more bogus 'trend'* lines

    * Where trend line means he's hit Up on the Polynomial button enough times to get the shape of curve he wants.
    I’m not offended, I’m embarrassed for you

    I’ll post whatever I like, and if you have a problem with the content, the person who made it is so easily contactable it makes me wonder why you haven’t already done so.
    He's a no one on Twitter posting nonsense. He impinges on my Twitter experience not one jot.

    However if people here, on PB.com continually post his made up garbage I will indeed point out that they have posted garbage from an account pushing an agenda.

    Posting a tweet here isn't a neutral action, you are saying something when you do so. Posting a tweet filled with false data overlaid with garbage visualisation is quite a thing.
    Point it out as much as you like. Won’t affect what I do a bit.

    You might have a hidden agenda every time you post, but I don’t, so best not ascribe your own motivation to me
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    As someone who works for an MP - not only has this increase to the office budget been horrendously misreported (which is causing problems for staffers, because we're already inundated with serious casework for people stuck overseas, people who have their businesses going under, people who are running out of food, etc, and now we have to deal with people phoning us to shout about MPs having their snouts in the trough), it's also badly needed because there are major costs associated with running a Parliamentary office that either aren't commonly applicable to other jobs, or costs that in any other job would be met by the employer.

    For example, some days I will print hundreds of letters to respond to a local campaign. In the Parliamentary office that is relatively straightforward because we already have a printer, ink, envelopes and headed paper. I didn't have any of that at home, so I've bought a printer, ink, envelopes etc to keep things ticking over, and I'll get that money back out of the office budget.

    The past few weeks have been incredibly stressful and it is disappointing that the press have chosen this moment to push a misleading story that, if they get what they want and the office budgets are cut, is only going to inconvenience staffers trying to help vulnerable people at a difficult time.

    Do you work for Gary Sambrook?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,004

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:
    How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?

    Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
    Have you bought ‘total deaths’ on the spreads?
    Bit narked about bogus numbers being shared about.
    But yesterday you were pretending Stockholm was in lockdown, when it isn't, and you keep getting a hard on about our death rate catching up with Italy, and accusing me of implying it wouldn't, when I didn't.

    That's nothing to do with what you describe as bogus numbers, you just seem to get internet wally aggressive with anything that doesn't predict the worst case scenario
    I didn't say it was in Lockdown, I said it was in defacto lock down. I was pointing out the picture illustrating the Hitchens piece was a stock photo not a contemporary image.

    I'm getting naked at numbers that are actually false and confirmably false with 30 seconds of checking.

    I've repeatedly said I think we will be on the mild end of any projection.
    You're doing what?
    I'm rending my clothes in frustration.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ABZ said:

    Chris said:

    ABZ said:

    That tweet is really poorly phrased (I wasn't able to listen to the press conference). Did Patrick Vallance state that 30% of the cases were asymptomatic (i.e., 70% have symptoms) or that 30% of the entire population might be infected asymptomatically? These have very different interpretations...
    I think it must mean 30% of infections are asymptomatic and less than 10% of the population has been infected.

    The 30% figure is a lot lower than other estimates of asymptomatic infections, and it would be interesting to know what his "suspicion" is based on.
    Hmm - the Guardian states: Vallance said the percentage of people across the world who have had coronavirus asymptomatically is likely to be “lower than 50, it could be around 30, but we don’t know for sure”.

    Will have to listen later!
    I don't understand why he is only "suspecting" these things. A few hundred random tests would give them good estimates of the percentage of active cases and the percentage of asymptomatic infections. How can they plan anything without such basic information?
    Porton Down has 700+ ground truth samples.
    I'm talking about random sampling of the general population to find the current number of active cases and the percentage of asymptomatic cases.
    It is a random sample of the general population, which they are tracking the progress of. My understanding they are sampling these people at regular intervals starting way back in January, and have been tracking them every since.

    It is how they know are able to accurately evaluate the anti-body kits and why they are failing.
    Thanks. I'm not quite clear from that article what they are doing and when. It seems the 800 samples are from February. But it also speaks of a national mass population sample "in the coming months". Let's hope it's soon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,457
    isam said:

    .

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:
    Sorry, this chart is really fucking bothering me.

    On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

    The ONS deaths figures are here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and they don't agree with the chart either.

    This chart is just wrong.
    Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.
    If you are offended by my swearing please stop posting graphs filled with bogus data and even more bogus 'trend'* lines

    * Where trend line means he's hit Up on the Polynomial button enough times to get the shape of curve he wants.
    I’m not offended, I’m embarrassed for you

    I’ll post whatever I like, and if you have a problem with the content, the person who made it is so easily contactable it makes me wonder why you haven’t already done so.
    He's a no one on Twitter posting nonsense. He impinges on my Twitter experience not one jot.

    However if people here, on PB.com continually post his made up garbage I will indeed point out that they have posted garbage from an account pushing an agenda.

    Posting a tweet here isn't a neutral action, you are saying something when you do so. Posting a tweet filled with false data overlaid with garbage visualisation is quite a thing.
    Point it out as much as you like. Won’t affect what I do a bit.

    You might have a hidden agenda every time you post, but I don’t, so best not ascribe your own motivation to me
    According to previous posts, he's not hiding anything.

    Maybe it was a full frontal assault?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,457
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:
    How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?

    Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
    Have you bought ‘total deaths’ on the spreads?
    Bit narked about bogus numbers being shared about.
    But yesterday you were pretending Stockholm was in lockdown, when it isn't, and you keep getting a hard on about our death rate catching up with Italy, and accusing me of implying it wouldn't, when I didn't.

    That's nothing to do with what you describe as bogus numbers, you just seem to get internet wally aggressive with anything that doesn't predict the worst case scenario
    I didn't say it was in Lockdown, I said it was in defacto lock down. I was pointing out the picture illustrating the Hitchens piece was a stock photo not a contemporary image.

    I'm getting naked at numbers that are actually false and confirmably false with 30 seconds of checking.

    I've repeatedly said I think we will be on the mild end of any projection.
    You're doing what?
    I'm rending my clothes in frustration.
    Well, that's a bit silly given you'll struggle to buy more in lockdown.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Why are you quoting The Lancet on this when it has repeatedly demonstrated that it has taken an ideological position on lockdown and will bend facts to fit it?

    It would be roughly the equivalent of quoting David Irving on the Holocaust.
    Fellow educator! How is your place managing? We’ve had all non essential staff put on furlough (premises, housekeeping, TAs, etc) and fees have been cut down pretty massively for next term to allow for no costs on those staff, premises etc., so hopefully that will retain goodwill. I’m a bit concerned about the overseas student situation going forwards, I have to admit. We’ve been trying to push further into those markets and I can see numbers collapsing. Not good, given the percentage of money they bring in.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,075
    France's death toll is up 1,341 to 12,210
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885
    Start of Channel 4 News: two police tell a man sitting by himself on a otherwise deserted beach that he has to move.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,918
    Good to see Pat McFadden and Liz K being used by Starmer.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,758



    And some hospitals are lying largely idle waiting for the onslaught that isn't (yet) coming. Not saying they have made the wrong call, but maybe if it's a quick operation, in an area with little Corona, they could whip some people through?

    I think this may well be one of the first aspects of the progressive easing of lock down. IF the current facilities are able to manage a declining number of Covid 19 cases, it may well be possible for other patients to be admitted and especially those needing urgent surgery.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited April 2020

    France's death toll is up 1,341 to 12,210

    And we all thought Italy was bad. Obviously we know France are including care home deaths and Italy aren't, but I meant in general when we heard the numbers coming out of Italy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    The company that I work for, like Lloyds Banking Group and HSBC are paying for things like office chairs to stop things like backache being a problem.
    Yep as I said I am unsure, not necessarily opposed. But Lloyds and HSBC are private companies taking that money out of their profits etc. MPs are being paid out of public funds. In this case £6.5 million additional public money. And 10K is a lot of money

    At the very least it is probably ill advised from a PR point of view.
    I'd like MPs to be better paid, better staffed and better equipped. This magic £10,000 is a step in that direction but first, it is a panic measure if MPs offices were not prepared for remote working, and more importantly it is another small step isolating MPs from the rest of us. Most people do not go through life having the wheels greased for them. Some of them forget that.
    I would prefer tarring and feathering myself, greedy grasping chancers, they buy nothing themselves. Salaries straight into the bank and monster pensions, cheap food and bevvy and half the year on vacation, what could be a cushier number.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited April 2020
    ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    France's death toll is up 1,341 to 12,210

    And we all thought Italy was bad.
    I can make a guess why France's figures might end up worse than Italy or Spain.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    Andy_JS said:

    France's death toll is up 1,341 to 12,210

    And we all thought Italy was bad.
    I can make a guess why France's figures might end up worse than Italy or Spain.
    Because?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,681
    Forgot this one

    Deputy Leader of the House of Commons: Afzal Khan
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,885

    Andy_JS said:

    France's death toll is up 1,341 to 12,210

    And we all thought Italy was bad.
    I can make a guess why France's figures might end up worse than Italy or Spain.
    Because?
    The word "banlieue" has something to do with it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,230
    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,457
    ukpaul said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Why are you quoting The Lancet on this when it has repeatedly demonstrated that it has taken an ideological position on lockdown and will bend facts to fit it?

    It would be roughly the equivalent of quoting David Irving on the Holocaust.
    Fellow educator! How is your place managing? We’ve had all non essential staff put on furlough (premises, housekeeping, TAs, etc) and fees have been cut down pretty massively for next term to allow for no costs on those staff, premises etc., so hopefully that will retain goodwill. I’m a bit concerned about the overseas student situation going forwards, I have to admit. We’ve been trying to push further into those markets and I can see numbers collapsing. Not good, given the percentage of money they bring in.
    I'll tell you when I find out after Easter. They are bringing in a revised timetable that may make some improvements, but our time in the Humanities has been cut in half so everyone else can be protected (which I think is just petty spite by the Head after I thwarted him over a staffing issue).
  • Starmer appointed junior shadow minister today

    Treasury

    Dan Carden (Financial Secretary)
    Pat McFadden (Economic Secretary)
    Wes Streeting (Exchequer Secretary)

    Foreign Office

    Wayne David (Middle East and North Africa)
    Stephen Doughty (Africa – joint with DFID)
    Stephen Kinnock (Asia and Pacific)
    Catherine West (Europe & Americas)

    Home Office

    Bambos Charalambous (Crime reduction and courts)
    Sarah Jones (Policing and the Fire Service)
    Holly Lynch (Immigration)
    Conor McGinn (Security)
    Jess Phillips (Domestic Violence and Safeguarding)

    Cabinet Office

    Paul Blomfield (Brexit and EU negotiations, joint with Int Trade)
    Helen Hayes (Cabinet Office)

    Justice

    Lyn Brown (Prisons and Probation)
    Alex Cunningham (Courts and sentencing)
    Peter Kyle (Victims and Youth Justice)
    Karl Turner (Legal Aid)

    Defence

    Sharon Hodgson (Veterans)
    Stephen Morgan (Armed Forces)
    Khalid Mahmood (Procurement)

    Health

    Liz Kendall (Social Care)
    Justin Madders (Public Health and prevention)
    Alex Norris (Public Health and patient safety)

    Business etc

    Chi Onwurah (Science, Research & Digital – joint with DCMS)
    Matthew Pennycook (Climate change)
    Lucy Powell (Business and Consumers)
    Alan Whitehead (Green New Deal and Energy)

    Work and Pension

    Jack Dromey (Pensions)
    Vicky Foxcroft (Disability)
    Kate Green (Child Poverty Strategy)
    Seema Malhotra (Employment)

    International Trade

    Paul Blomfield (Joint with CDL)
    Bill Esterson
    Gareth Thomas

    Education

    Margaret Greenwood (Schools)
    Emma Hardy (FE & Universities)
    Toby Perkins (Apprenticeships & life-long learning)
    Tulip Siddiq (Children & Early Years)

    Digital Culture Sport

    Tracy Brabin (Cultural Industries)
    Rachel Maskell (Voluntary Sector & Charities)
    Chris Matheson (Media)
    Alison McGovern (Sport)
    Chi Onwurah (Digital, joint with BEIS)
    Alex Sobel (Tourism & Heritage)

    Environment

    Steph Peacock (Flooding)
    Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Natural Environment & Air Quality)
    Daniel Zeichner (Food, Farming and Fisheries)

    Communities and Local government

    Mike Amesbury (Housing and Planning)
    Janet Daby (Faiths)
    Kate Hollern (Local Government)
    Naz Shah (Community Cohesion)

    Transport

    Tan Dhesi (Railways)
    Mike Kane (Regional Transport)
    Kerry McCarthy (Green transport and aviation)
    Matt Rodda (Buses)

    International Development

    Stephen Doughty (Joint with FCO)
    Anna McMorrin
    Yasmin Qureshi

    Northern Ireland
    Karin Smyth

    Wales
    Gerald Jones

    Scotland
    Chris Elmore (joint with whips office)

    Women and equalities
    Gill Furness

    Employer rights and protections
    Imran Hussain

    Solicitor General
    Ellie Reeves


    Deputy Chief Whip: Alan Campbell
    Pairing Whip: Mark Tami
    Senior Whip: Jessica Morden

    Liz 4% Kendall showing a lot of humility accepting that?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,457
    Andy_JS said:

    Start of Channel 4 News: two police tell a man sitting by himself on a otherwise deserted beach that he has to move.

    End of Channel 4 news - two police officers arrested for breaking social distancing by forming a group of 3.

    (Didn't happen but it would be so funny.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,055
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    France's death toll is up 1,341 to 12,210

    And we all thought Italy was bad.
    I can make a guess why France's figures might end up worse than Italy or Spain.
    Because?
    The word "banlieue" has something to do with it.
    Do we have any data in regards to where in places like Paris are badly affected? And does Spain and Italy not have similar districts in major cities?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,803
    Andy_JS said:

    Start of Channel 4 News: two police tell a man sitting by himself on a otherwise deserted beach that he has to move.

    What's the limit? 10, 50... etc.

    If one does it, others will follow.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,230

    Starmer appointed junior shadow minister today

    Treasury

    Dan Carden (Financial Secretary)
    Pat McFadden (Economic Secretary)
    Wes Streeting (Exchequer Secretary)

    Foreign Office

    Wayne David (Middle East and North Africa)
    Stephen Doughty (Africa – joint with DFID)
    Stephen Kinnock (Asia and Pacific)
    Catherine West (Europe & Americas)

    Home Office

    Bambos Charalambous (Crime reduction and courts)
    Sarah Jones (Policing and the Fire Service)
    Holly Lynch (Immigration)
    Conor McGinn (Security)
    Jess Phillips (Domestic Violence and Safeguarding)

    Cabinet Office

    Paul Blomfield (Brexit and EU negotiations, joint with Int Trade)
    Helen Hayes (Cabinet Office)

    Justice

    Lyn Brown (Prisons and Probation)
    Alex Cunningham (Courts and sentencing)
    Peter Kyle (Victims and Youth Justice)
    Karl Turner (Legal Aid)

    Defence

    Sharon Hodgson (Veterans)
    Stephen Morgan (Armed Forces)
    Khalid Mahmood (Procurement)

    Health

    Liz Kendall (Social Care)
    Justin Madders (Public Health and prevention)
    Alex Norris (Public Health and patient safety)

    Business etc

    Chi Onwurah (Science, Research & Digital – joint with DCMS)
    Matthew Pennycook (Climate change)
    Lucy Powell (Business and Consumers)
    Alan Whitehead (Green New Deal and Energy)

    Work and Pension

    Jack Dromey (Pensions)
    Vicky Foxcroft (Disability)
    Kate Green (Child Poverty Strategy)
    Seema Malhotra (Employment)

    International Trade

    Paul Blomfield (Joint with CDL)
    Bill Esterson
    Gareth Thomas

    Education

    Margaret Greenwood (Schools)
    Emma Hardy (FE & Universities)
    Toby Perkins (Apprenticeships & life-long learning)
    Tulip Siddiq (Children & Early Years)

    Digital Culture Sport

    Tracy Brabin (Cultural Industries)
    Rachel Maskell (Voluntary Sector & Charities)
    Chris Matheson (Media)
    Alison McGovern (Sport)
    Chi Onwurah (Digital, joint with BEIS)
    Alex Sobel (Tourism & Heritage)

    Environment

    Steph Peacock (Flooding)
    Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Natural Environment & Air Quality)
    Daniel Zeichner (Food, Farming and Fisheries)

    Communities and Local government

    Mike Amesbury (Housing and Planning)
    Janet Daby (Faiths)
    Kate Hollern (Local Government)
    Naz Shah (Community Cohesion)

    Transport

    Tan Dhesi (Railways)
    Mike Kane (Regional Transport)
    Kerry McCarthy (Green transport and aviation)
    Matt Rodda (Buses)

    International Development

    Stephen Doughty (Joint with FCO)
    Anna McMorrin
    Yasmin Qureshi

    Northern Ireland
    Karin Smyth

    Wales
    Gerald Jones

    Scotland
    Chris Elmore (joint with whips office)

    Women and equalities
    Gill Furness

    Employer rights and protections
    Imran Hussain

    Solicitor General
    Ellie Reeves


    Deputy Chief Whip: Alan Campbell
    Pairing Whip: Mark Tami
    Senior Whip: Jessica Morden

    Liz 4% Kendall showing a lot of humility accepting that?
    Neither Corbyn nor Milliband accepted the tea-boy role though it seems. Lammy's hopeful.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,004
    isam said:

    .

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:
    Sorry, this chart is really fucking bothering me.

    On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

    The ONS deaths figures are here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and they don't agree with the chart either.

    This chart is just wrong.
    Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.
    If you are offended by my swearing please stop posting graphs filled with bogus data and even more bogus 'trend'* lines

    * Where trend line means he's hit Up on the Polynomial button enough times to get the shape of curve he wants.
    I’m not offended, I’m embarrassed for you

    I’ll post whatever I like, and if you have a problem with the content, the person who made it is so easily contactable it makes me wonder why you haven’t already done so.
    He's a no one on Twitter posting nonsense. He impinges on my Twitter experience not one jot.

    However if people here, on PB.com continually post his made up garbage I will indeed point out that they have posted garbage from an account pushing an agenda.

    Posting a tweet here isn't a neutral action, you are saying something when you do so. Posting a tweet filled with false data overlaid with garbage visualisation is quite a thing.
    Point it out as much as you like. Won’t affect what I do a bit.

    You might have a hidden agenda every time you post, but I don’t, so best not ascribe your own motivation to me
    So your non hidden agenda is to deliberately post fake data?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,688
    edited April 2020
    Stocky said:

    "Libertarian" and "Statist" don`t match. Libertarianism is an (almost) anarchist position, arguing for as light-touch state interference in our lives as possible. The function of the state, they believe, should be restricted to very basic things, such as basic infrastructure and defence, and then to get out of the way. Libertarians are ultra-liberals on speed if you like.

    The Spiked team - whom I hold in high regard, though I disagree with them almost as much as I agree - often offer a different take on things. They are massively humanist, championing democracy over all, and I think this is where their "left" identification comes from. It`s all about individuals versus the state.

    Interesting that a Liberal Democrat would like Spiked. Also interesting that "Whispering Oracle" says Noam Chomsky is a Left Libertarian. Despite not reading him I rate him highly - based on me rating highly the various people who have read him and who rate him highly.

    However, I don't need to agree with him. For me, Left means Big State. That you can achieve a radical redistribution of wealth and opportunity in the modern western economy via a mechanism other than the government seems fanciful. I'm sure that one can hypothesize esoteric structures which in theory would work but I don't buy it. So I embrace Big Government.

    As for Libertarians, OK, it's about the opposite - the small state. But my sense is that the real appeal to many of them is not small state per se, it is low tax. Since it follows. Small state, low tax. Now if you ask the question, "Why are you so attracted to a small state? Is it the sanctity of the individual or is it about not paying much tax?" the reply will no doubt be "Oh, it's an individual freedom thing." Rather like "It's about Sovereignty" is the romanticized version of "It's about Immigration" in the Brexit debate. I don't like to be cynical like this but I do think it warranted here.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,536
    Barney v Taylor in their living rooms:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=He09d9Oi0f8
  • Re; compliance with stay-at-home orders, note recent Washington Post story about enforcement efforts of street gangs in Central America. Who were posting messages on the web telling locals to make sure they only went on streets on vital errands and wearing masks - or risk having their temperature taken with a baseball bat.

    Substitute cricket bats, and true Brit yobs, and sounds like a plan that would appeal to many UKers, esp. those currently running the show at No. 10 (whomever they may be) in the current crisis.

    Talk about the smack of firm government!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,230
    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
    What do you think a millionaire pension looks like?

    It's about 30k per year. Senior nurses, tube drivers, headmasters. They all get that.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    edited April 2020
    ydoethur said:

    ukpaul said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Why are you quoting The Lancet on this when it has repeatedly demonstrated that it has taken an ideological position on lockdown and will bend facts to fit it?

    It would be roughly the equivalent of quoting David Irving on the Holocaust.
    Fellow educator! How is your place managing? We’ve had all non essential staff put on furlough (premises, housekeeping, TAs, etc) and fees have been cut down pretty massively for next term to allow for no costs on those staff, premises etc., so hopefully that will retain goodwill. I’m a bit concerned about the overseas student situation going forwards, I have to admit. We’ve been trying to push further into those markets and I can see numbers collapsing. Not good, given the percentage of money they bring in.
    I'll tell you when I find out after Easter. They are bringing in a revised timetable that may make some improvements, but our time in the Humanities has been cut in half so everyone else can be protected (which I think is just petty spite by the Head after I thwarted him over a staffing issue).
    They choose this time to do that? That’s just vindictive. No need for details but I sincerely hope that’s just time not money. I’ve heard about another school furloughing practical subject teachers, which is a bad message in itself regarding breadth of education. We’ve had teaching staff protected, thankfully, which means that we can still provide a full timetable plus enrichment activities.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    They always line their own pockets at any opportunity, only thing they are good at.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Boris out of intensive care!!!
  • Floater said:

    Boris out of intensive care!!!

    Great news. Great NHS
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,457
    ukpaul said:

    Q

    ydoethur said:

    ukpaul said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Why are you quoting The Lancet on this when it has repeatedly demonstrated that it has taken an ideological position on lockdown and will bend facts to fit it?

    It would be roughly the equivalent of quoting David Irving on the Holocaust.
    Fellow educator! How is your place managing? We’ve had all non essential staff put on furlough (premises, housekeeping, TAs, etc) and fees have been cut down pretty massively for next term to allow for no costs on those staff, premises etc., so hopefully that will retain goodwill. I’m a bit concerned about the overseas student situation going forwards, I have to admit. We’ve been trying to push further into those markets and I can see numbers collapsing. Not good, given the percentage of money they bring in.
    I'll tell you when I find out after Easter. They are bringing in a revised timetable that may make some improvements, but our time in the Humanities has been cut in half so everyone else can be protected (which I think is just petty spite by the Head after I thwarted him over a staffing issue).
    They choose this time to do that? That’s just vindictive. No need for details but I sincerely hope that’s just time not money. I’ve heard about another school furloughing practical subject teachers, which is a bad message in itself regarding breadth of education. We’ve had teaching staff protected, thankfully, which means that we can still provide a full timetable plus enrichment activities.
    It wasn’t about staffing. It was about teachers setting too much work.

    Although why Humanities got punished when it was English that was the problem I don’t know.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited April 2020
    TGOHF666 said:
    They probably sent in an extremely good looking nurse in and he immediately perked up....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Starmer appointed junior shadow minister today

    Treasury

    Dan Carden (Financial Secretary)
    Pat McFadden (Economic Secretary)
    Wes Streeting (Exchequer Secretary)

    Foreign Office

    Wayne David (Middle East and North Africa)
    Stephen Doughty (Africa – joint with DFID)
    Stephen Kinnock (Asia and Pacific)
    Catherine West (Europe & Americas)

    Home Office

    Bambos Charalambous (Crime reduction and courts)
    Sarah Jones (Policing and the Fire Service)
    Holly Lynch (Immigration)
    Conor McGinn (Security)
    Jess Phillips (Domestic Violence and Safeguarding)

    Cabinet Office

    Paul Blomfield (Brexit and EU negotiations, joint with Int Trade)
    Helen Hayes (Cabinet Office)

    Justice

    Lyn Brown (Prisons and Probation)
    Alex Cunningham (Courts and sentencing)
    Peter Kyle (Victims and Youth Justice)
    Karl Turner (Legal Aid)

    Defence

    Sharon Hodgson (Veterans)
    Stephen Morgan (Armed Forces)
    Khalid Mahmood (Procurement)

    Health

    Liz Kendall (Social Care)
    Justin Madders (Public Health and prevention)
    Alex Norris (Public Health and patient safety)

    Business etc

    Chi Onwurah (Science, Research & Digital – joint with DCMS)
    Matthew Pennycook (Climate change)
    Lucy Powell (Business and Consumers)
    Alan Whitehead (Green New Deal and Energy)

    Work and Pension

    Jack Dromey (Pensions)
    Vicky Foxcroft (Disability)
    Kate Green (Child Poverty Strategy)
    Seema Malhotra (Employment)

    International Trade

    Paul Blomfield (Joint with CDL)
    Bill Esterson
    Gareth Thomas

    Education

    Margaret Greenwood (Schools)
    Emma Hardy (FE & Universities)
    Toby Perkins (Apprenticeships & life-long learning)
    Tulip Siddiq (Children & Early Years)

    Digital Culture Sport

    Tracy Brabin (Cultural Industries)
    Rachel Maskell (Voluntary Sector & Charities)
    Chris Matheson (Media)
    Alison McGovern (Sport)
    Chi Onwurah (Digital, joint with BEIS)
    Alex Sobel (Tourism & Heritage)

    Environment

    Steph Peacock (Flooding)
    Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Natural Environment & Air Quality)
    Daniel Zeichner (Food, Farming and Fisheries)

    Communities and Local government

    Mike Amesbury (Housing and Planning)
    Janet Daby (Faiths)
    Kate Hollern (Local Government)
    Naz Shah (Community Cohesion)

    Transport

    Tan Dhesi (Railways)
    Mike Kane (Regional Transport)
    Kerry McCarthy (Green transport and aviation)
    Matt Rodda (Buses)

    International Development

    Stephen Doughty (Joint with FCO)
    Anna McMorrin
    Yasmin Qureshi

    Northern Ireland
    Karin Smyth

    Wales
    Gerald Jones

    Scotland
    Chris Elmore (joint with whips office)

    Women and equalities
    Gill Furness

    Employer rights and protections
    Imran Hussain

    Solicitor General
    Ellie Reeves


    Deputy Chief Whip: Alan Campbell
    Pairing Whip: Mark Tami
    Senior Whip: Jessica Morden

    Is that the runners in the donkey Derby
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,172
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    "Libertarian" and "Statist" don`t match. Libertarianism is an (almost) anarchist position, arguing for as light-touch state interference in our lives as possible. The function of the state, they believe, should be restricted to very basic things, such as basic infrastructure and defence, and then to get out of the way. Libertarians are ultra-liberals on speed if you like.

    The Spiked team - whom I hold in high regard, though I disagree with them almost as much as I agree - often offer a different take on things. They are massively humanist, championing democracy over all, and I think this is where their "left" identification comes from. It`s all about individuals versus the state.

    Interesting that a Liberal Democrat would like Spiked. Also interesting that "Whispering Oracle" says Noam Chomsky is a Left Libertarian. Despite not reading him I rate him highly - based on me rating highly the various people who have read him and who rate him highly.

    However, I don't need to agree with him. For me, Left means Big State. That you can achieve a radical redistribution of wealth and opportunity in the modern western economy via a mechanism other than the government seems fanciful. I'm sure that one can hypothesize esoteric structures which in theory would work but I don't buy it. So I embrace Big Government.

    As for Libertarians, OK, it's about the opposite - the small state. But my sense is that the real appeal to many of them is not small state per se, it is low tax. Since it follows. Small state, low tax. Now if you ask the question, "Why are you so attracted to a small state? Is it the sanctity of the individual or is it about not paying much tax?" the reply will no doubt be "Oh, it's an individual freedom thing." Rather like "It's about Sovereignty" is the romanticized version of "It's about Immigration" in the Brexit debate. I don't like to be cynical like this but I do think it warranted here.
    Whereas your position is about dipping your hands deep in the pockets of others to give the poor what you deem they need as they are obviously too thick to aspire to improve their lot without your help
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,457

    TGOHF666 said:
    They probably sent in an extremely good looking nurse in and he immediately perked up....
    That would have been more likely to Carrie him off...

    But it is good news that he seems to be improving.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    France's death toll is up 1,341 to 12,210

    And we all thought Italy was bad. Obviously we know France are including care home deaths and Italy aren't, but I meant in general when we heard the numbers coming out of Italy.
    Hospital deaths was only up 424 today, which is the like for like number. I do think care home cases could be particularly bad in France though, its the opposite of Italy here, the elderly are much more separated and in care homes. They don't live in multi generational households. Partly why they had so many deaths in the 2003 heatwave (15000), elderly people alone and in poor care homes.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Alistair said:

    Chris said:

    Alistair said:



    I'm getting naked at numbers that are actually false and confirmably false with 30 seconds of checking.

    ?
    The graph isam posted with the wacky trend line that showed a number of people were brought back to life by the Corona virus at the start of March. It's numbers do not match the source it says it takes them from.
    Let’s see...

    https://twitter.com/asfarasdelgados/status/1248311155837284355?s=21
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,362
    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
    What do you think a millionaire pension looks like?

    It's about 30k per year. Senior nurses, tube drivers, headmasters. They all get that.
    The defined benefit valuation ratio is 20:1, so that’s a bit off. Although closer for a defined contribution pension (which none of those have).
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,800
    malcolmg said:

    Starmer appointed junior shadow minister today

    Treasury

    Dan Carden (Financial Secretary)
    Pat McFadden (Economic Secretary)
    Wes Streeting (Exchequer Secretary)

    Foreign Office

    Wayne David (Middle East and North Africa)
    Stephen Doughty (Africa – joint with DFID)
    Stephen Kinnock (Asia and Pacific)
    Catherine West (Europe & Americas)

    Home Office

    Bambos Charalambous (Crime reduction and courts)
    Sarah Jones (Policing and the Fire Service)
    Holly Lynch (Immigration)
    Conor McGinn (Security)
    Jess Phillips (Domestic Violence and Safeguarding)

    Cabinet Office

    Paul Blomfield (Brexit and EU negotiations, joint with Int Trade)
    Helen Hayes (Cabinet Office)

    Justice

    Lyn Brown (Prisons and Probation)
    Alex Cunningham (Courts and sentencing)
    Peter Kyle (Victims and Youth Justice)
    Karl Turner (Legal Aid)

    Defence

    Sharon Hodgson (Veterans)
    Stephen Morgan (Armed Forces)
    Khalid Mahmood (Procurement)

    Health

    Liz Kendall (Social Care)
    Justin Madders (Public Health and prevention)
    Alex Norris (Public Health and patient safety)

    Business etc

    Chi Onwurah (Science, Research & Digital – joint with DCMS)
    Matthew Pennycook (Climate change)
    Lucy Powell (Business and Consumers)
    Alan Whitehead (Green New Deal and Energy)

    Work and Pension

    Jack Dromey (Pensions)
    Vicky Foxcroft (Disability)
    Kate Green (Child Poverty Strategy)
    Seema Malhotra (Employment)

    International Trade

    Paul Blomfield (Joint with CDL)
    Bill Esterson
    Gareth Thomas

    Education

    Margaret Greenwood (Schools)
    Emma Hardy (FE & Universities)
    Toby Perkins (Apprenticeships & life-long learning)
    Tulip Siddiq (Children & Early Years)

    Digital Culture Sport

    Tracy Brabin (Cultural Industries)
    Rachel Maskell (Voluntary Sector & Charities)
    Chris Matheson (Media)
    Alison McGovern (Sport)
    Chi Onwurah (Digital, joint with BEIS)
    Alex Sobel (Tourism & Heritage)

    Environment

    Steph Peacock (Flooding)
    Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Natural Environment & Air Quality)
    Daniel Zeichner (Food, Farming and Fisheries)

    Communities and Local government

    Mike Amesbury (Housing and Planning)
    Janet Daby (Faiths)
    Kate Hollern (Local Government)
    Naz Shah (Community Cohesion)

    Transport

    Tan Dhesi (Railways)
    Mike Kane (Regional Transport)
    Kerry McCarthy (Green transport and aviation)
    Matt Rodda (Buses)

    International Development

    Stephen Doughty (Joint with FCO)
    Anna McMorrin
    Yasmin Qureshi

    Northern Ireland
    Karin Smyth

    Wales
    Gerald Jones

    Scotland
    Chris Elmore (joint with whips office)

    Women and equalities
    Gill Furness

    Employer rights and protections
    Imran Hussain

    Solicitor General
    Ellie Reeves


    Deputy Chief Whip: Alan Campbell
    Pairing Whip: Mark Tami
    Senior Whip: Jessica Morden

    Is that the runners in the donkey Derby
    There are all sorts of things to say about this list of names

    Dan Carden/Naz Shah and others have anti-semitic statements to their name. They should have no place in any Shadow ministerial position.

    Lloyd R-M is another Corbynite loon who should not be there.

    What justification can there be to have a larger team shadowing the DCMS than Health/Social care?

    There are some sensible names on the list - but too many Corbynite hangers-on have been given preferment.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 218
    malcolmg said:

    As someone who works for an MP - not only has this increase to the office budget been horrendously misreported (which is causing problems for staffers, because we're already inundated with serious casework for people stuck overseas, people who have their businesses going under, people who are running out of food, etc, and now we have to deal with people phoning us to shout about MPs having their snouts in the trough), it's also badly needed because there are major costs associated with running a Parliamentary office that either aren't commonly applicable to other jobs, or costs that in any other job would be met by the employer.

    For example, some days I will print hundreds of letters to respond to a local campaign. In the Parliamentary office that is relatively straightforward because we already have a printer, ink, envelopes and headed paper. I didn't have any of that at home, so I've bought a printer, ink, envelopes etc to keep things ticking over, and I'll get that money back out of the office budget.

    The past few weeks have been incredibly stressful and it is disappointing that the press have chosen this moment to push a misleading story that, if they get what they want and the office budgets are cut, is only going to inconvenience staffers trying to help vulnerable people at a difficult time.

    MP's will be filling their boots
    They can't. This isn't a cash grant - this is just an increase on the current office budget. MPs still have to declare every penny they spend and publish the receipts.

    Ironically, the constituents who will most benefit from their MPs and staff having the equipment to do their jobs will be MPs who represent geographically larger constituencies further from London, where it isn't feasible to bring stuff from Westminster - so, disproportionately Scottish.
    Andy_JS said:



    Do you work for Gary Sambrook?

    I'm afraid not but I did use to live near Northfield!

  • Starmer appointed junior shadow minister today

    Treasury

    Dan Carden (Financial Secretary)
    Pat McFadden (Economic Secretary)
    Wes Streeting (Exchequer Secretary)

    Foreign Office

    Wayne David (Middle East and North Africa)
    Stephen Doughty (Africa – joint with DFID)
    Stephen Kinnock (Asia and Pacific)
    Catherine West (Europe & Americas)

    Home Office

    Bambos Charalambous (Crime reduction and courts)
    Sarah Jones (Policing and the Fire Service)
    Holly Lynch (Immigration)
    Conor McGinn (Security)
    Jess Phillips (Domestic Violence and Safeguarding)

    Cabinet Office

    Paul Blomfield (Brexit and EU negotiations, joint with Int Trade)
    Helen Hayes (Cabinet Office)

    Justice

    Lyn Brown (Prisons and Probation)
    Alex Cunningham (Courts and sentencing)
    Peter Kyle (Victims and Youth Justice)
    Karl Turner (Legal Aid)

    Defence

    Sharon Hodgson (Veterans)
    Stephen Morgan (Armed Forces)
    Khalid Mahmood (Procurement)

    Health

    Liz Kendall (Social Care)
    Justin Madders (Public Health and prevention)
    Alex Norris (Public Health and patient safety)

    Business etc

    Chi Onwurah (Science, Research & Digital – joint with DCMS)
    Matthew Pennycook (Climate change)
    Lucy Powell (Business and Consumers)
    Alan Whitehead (Green New Deal and Energy)

    Work and Pension

    Jack Dromey (Pensions)
    Vicky Foxcroft (Disability)
    Kate Green (Child Poverty Strategy)
    Seema Malhotra (Employment)

    International Trade

    Paul Blomfield (Joint with CDL)
    Bill Esterson
    Gareth Thomas

    Education

    Margaret Greenwood (Schools)
    Emma Hardy (FE & Universities)
    Toby Perkins (Apprenticeships & life-long learning)
    Tulip Siddiq (Children & Early Years)

    Digital Culture Sport

    Tracy Brabin (Cultural Industries)
    Rachel Maskell (Voluntary Sector & Charities)
    Chris Matheson (Media)
    Alison McGovern (Sport)
    Chi Onwurah (Digital, joint with BEIS)
    Alex Sobel (Tourism & Heritage)

    Environment

    Steph Peacock (Flooding)
    Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Natural Environment & Air Quality)
    Daniel Zeichner (Food, Farming and Fisheries)

    Communities and Local government

    Mike Amesbury (Housing and Planning)
    Janet Daby (Faiths)
    Kate Hollern (Local Government)
    Naz Shah (Community Cohesion)

    Transport

    Tan Dhesi (Railways)
    Mike Kane (Regional Transport)
    Kerry McCarthy (Green transport and aviation)
    Matt Rodda (Buses)

    International Development

    Stephen Doughty (Joint with FCO)
    Anna McMorrin
    Yasmin Qureshi

    Northern Ireland
    Karin Smyth

    Wales
    Gerald Jones

    Scotland
    Chris Elmore (joint with whips office)

    Women and equalities
    Gill Furness

    Employer rights and protections
    Imran Hussain

    Solicitor General
    Ellie Reeves


    Deputy Chief Whip: Alan Campbell
    Pairing Whip: Mark Tami
    Senior Whip: Jessica Morden

    Poor Clive Lewis. Starmer doesn't even think he's up to being a shadow junior minister. I guess Burgon and Lavery can keep him company on the backbenches.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    Evening Omnium, I was thinking they would be millionaires excluding their pensions, they don't have to buy almost anything, even paperclips and milk are on expenses. They are certainly well renumerated for sure , far far better than equivalent private sector. Majority of them do little other than park their arses in Westminster and quaff subsidised booze, perhaps open an odd fete.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited April 2020
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    .

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:
    Sorry, this chart is really fucking bothering me.

    On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

    The ONS deaths figures are here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and they don't agree with the chart either.

    This chart is just wrong.
    Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.
    If you are offended by my swearing please stop posting graphs filled with bogus data and even more bogus 'trend'* lines

    * Where trend line means he's hit Up on the Polynomial button enough times to get the shape of curve he wants.
    I’m not offended, I’m embarrassed for you

    I’ll post whatever I like, and if you have a problem with the content, the person who made it is so easily contactable it makes me wonder why you haven’t already done so.
    He's a no one on Twitter posting nonsense. He impinges on my Twitter experience not one jot.

    However if people here, on PB.com continually post his made up garbage I will indeed point out that they have posted garbage from an account pushing an agenda.

    Posting a tweet here isn't a neutral action, you are saying something when you do so. Posting a tweet filled with false data overlaid with garbage visualisation is quite a thing.
    Point it out as much as you like. Won’t affect what I do a bit.

    You might have a hidden agenda every time you post, but I don’t, so best not ascribe your own motivation to me
    So your non hidden agenda is to deliberately post fake data?
    No, I’m just interested in the different ways people are predicting the outcome, in terms of deaths, of the pandemic, and keeping an open mind about it.

    The anger it causes is an interesting psychological case study!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,055
    HYUFD said:
    Good news, get well soon prime minister!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    France's death toll is up 1,341 to 12,210

    And we all thought Italy was bad. Obviously we know France are including care home deaths and Italy aren't, but I meant in general when we heard the numbers coming out of Italy.
    Hospital deaths was only up 424 today, which is the like for like number. I do think care home cases could be particularly bad in France though, its the opposite of Italy here, the elderly are much more separated and in care homes. They don't live in multi generational households. Partly why they had so many deaths in the 2003 heatwave (15000), elderly people alone and in poor care homes.
    I saw something re Scotland that normal deaths were up more than the virus deaths by a fair bit as people were not getting to doctors , hospitals etc.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,469
    HYUFD said:
    That`s a lovely arch. All those colours. Well done Maureen!
  • Hurrah for Boris.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,941
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    Good news, get well soon prime minister!
    That is fantastic news!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    malcolmg said:

    As someone who works for an MP - not only has this increase to the office budget been horrendously misreported (which is causing problems for staffers, because we're already inundated with serious casework for people stuck overseas, people who have their businesses going under, people who are running out of food, etc, and now we have to deal with people phoning us to shout about MPs having their snouts in the trough), it's also badly needed because there are major costs associated with running a Parliamentary office that either aren't commonly applicable to other jobs, or costs that in any other job would be met by the employer.

    For example, some days I will print hundreds of letters to respond to a local campaign. In the Parliamentary office that is relatively straightforward because we already have a printer, ink, envelopes and headed paper. I didn't have any of that at home, so I've bought a printer, ink, envelopes etc to keep things ticking over, and I'll get that money back out of the office budget.

    The past few weeks have been incredibly stressful and it is disappointing that the press have chosen this moment to push a misleading story that, if they get what they want and the office budgets are cut, is only going to inconvenience staffers trying to help vulnerable people at a difficult time.

    MP's will be filling their boots
    They can't. This isn't a cash grant - this is just an increase on the current office budget. MPs still have to declare every penny they spend and publish the receipts.

    Ironically, the constituents who will most benefit from their MPs and staff having the equipment to do their jobs will be MPs who represent geographically larger constituencies further from London, where it isn't feasible to bring stuff from Westminster - so, disproportionately Scottish.
    Andy_JS said:



    Do you work for Gary Sambrook?

    I'm afraid not but I did use to live near Northfield!

    I was not excluding Scottish MP's from pocket stuffing by the way.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    Chris said:

    Alistair said:



    I'm getting naked at numbers that are actually false and confirmably false with 30 seconds of checking.

    ?
    The graph isam posted with the wacky trend line that showed a number of people were brought back to life by the Corona virus at the start of March. It's numbers do not match the source it says it takes them from.
    Let’s see...

    https://twitter.com/asfarasdelgados/status/1248311155837284355?s=21

  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,469
    edited April 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
    What do you think a millionaire pension looks like?

    It's about 30k per year. Senior nurses, tube drivers, headmasters. They all get that.
    The defined benefit valuation ratio is 20:1, so that’s a bit off. Although closer for a defined contribution pension (which none of those have).
    Much higher than 20:1. I`ve seen 50:1. 35 - 40:1 is typical. £30k pa, index linked at age 65 would easily be over £1m.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,230
    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
    What do you think a millionaire pension looks like?

    It's about 30k per year. Senior nurses, tube drivers, headmasters. They all get that.
    The defined benefit valuation ratio is 20:1, so that’s a bit off. Although closer for a defined contribution pension (which none of those have).
    If you wanted to buy an equivalent pension to what the state provides it's easily 33:1.

    Index-linked, 'no' risk, huge collective arseholeness, and really often soft or early retirement.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
    What do you think a millionaire pension looks like?

    It's about 30k per year. Senior nurses, tube drivers, headmasters. They all get that.
    The defined benefit valuation ratio is 20:1, so that’s a bit off. Although closer for a defined contribution pension (which none of those have).
    I cashed my final salary one in and got 24:1

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,130
    edited April 2020
    Hmm.

    "UK lockdown could end 'with sector-by-sector plan' for firms

    Industries like manufacturing could return to normal before entertainment companies, according to Whitehall sources

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/09/uk-lockdown-could-end-with-sector-by-sector-plan-for-firms"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,362
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
    What do you think a millionaire pension looks like?

    It's about 30k per year. Senior nurses, tube drivers, headmasters. They all get that.
    The defined benefit valuation ratio is 20:1, so that’s a bit off. Although closer for a defined contribution pension (which none of those have).
    Muck higher than 20:1. I`ve seen 50:1. 35 - 40:1 is typical. £30k pa, index linked at age 65 would easily be over £1m.
    Yet the official ratio is 20:1. You are right that this is historical and doesn’t reflect current valuation ratios.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,190
    HYUFD said:
    If people didn't act like fuckwits they would not have to take such measures.

    Follow the rules. It's simple.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,055
    tlg86 said:

    Barney v Taylor in their living rooms:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=He09d9Oi0f8

    That's awesome to watch! Great to see some innovative events being put on as we're all stuck at home.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,584
    HYUFD said:
    That is right, and shows that many of these key political skills are learned skills that can be easily acquired and practised. If senior politicians did not run scared of meetings and interviews, they'd quickly be a damn sight better at them. Even at the top, Brown, May and Boris preferred to hide away.
  • Good news about the PM being out of ICU.

    Many historians believe that Franklin Delano Roosevelt would NOT have been the President he became without the live-changing experience of contracting and overcoming polio.

    Is it possible, that Boris Johnson may have a new and improved perspective, empathy, determination and (dare I say) maturity based on his own harrowing experience?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,495
    Andy_JS said:

    Start of Channel 4 News: two police tell a man sitting by himself on a otherwise deserted beach that he has to move.

    Seriously, why don't they just fuck off?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,469
    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
    What do you think a millionaire pension looks like?

    It's about 30k per year. Senior nurses, tube drivers, headmasters. They all get that.
    The defined benefit valuation ratio is 20:1, so that’s a bit off. Although closer for a defined contribution pension (which none of those have).
    Muck higher than 20:1. I`ve seen 50:1. 35 - 40:1 is typical. £30k pa, index linked at age 65 would easily be over £1m.
    Yet the official ratio is 20:1. You are right that this is historical and doesn’t reflect current valuation ratios.
    I think the 20:1 ratio to which you refer is the calculation used against the lifetime allowance.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,584
    HYUFD said:
    I've never understood why Trump's own press conferences have him isolated but two dozen people almost touching in a line behind him. What are they all there for and why can't they be further apart (or at home)?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,800

    HYUFD said:
    If people didn't act like fuckwits they would not have to take such measures.

    Follow the rules. It's simple.
    Yes, it is simple. But this sort of taping exercise is utterly pointless.

    Anyone who wants to sit down on a bench will continue to do so. All it has achieved is a tweet and making council employees do something pretty meaningless
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,584
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    Good news, get well soon prime minister!
    Betfair will be able to reopen their markets. Lucky they only suspended them -- no need to pass up all that lovely commission!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,190

    HYUFD said:
    If people didn't act like fuckwits they would not have to take such measures.

    Follow the rules. It's simple.
    Yes, it is simple. But this sort of taping exercise is utterly pointless.

    Anyone who wants to sit down on a bench will continue to do so. All it has achieved is a tweet and making council employees do something pretty meaningless
    But they can't say "Oh, I didn't realise that I can't sit here"
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 218
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    As someone who works for an MP - not only has this increase to the office budget been horrendously misreported (which is causing problems for staffers, because we're already inundated with serious casework for people stuck overseas, people who have their businesses going under, people who are running out of food, etc, and now we have to deal with people phoning us to shout about MPs having their snouts in the trough), it's also badly needed because there are major costs associated with running a Parliamentary office that either aren't commonly applicable to other jobs, or costs that in any other job would be met by the employer.

    For example, some days I will print hundreds of letters to respond to a local campaign. In the Parliamentary office that is relatively straightforward because we already have a printer, ink, envelopes and headed paper. I didn't have any of that at home, so I've bought a printer, ink, envelopes etc to keep things ticking over, and I'll get that money back out of the office budget.

    The past few weeks have been incredibly stressful and it is disappointing that the press have chosen this moment to push a misleading story that, if they get what they want and the office budgets are cut, is only going to inconvenience staffers trying to help vulnerable people at a difficult time.

    MP's will be filling their boots
    They can't. This isn't a cash grant - this is just an increase on the current office budget. MPs still have to declare every penny they spend and publish the receipts.

    Ironically, the constituents who will most benefit from their MPs and staff having the equipment to do their jobs will be MPs who represent geographically larger constituencies further from London, where it isn't feasible to bring stuff from Westminster - so, disproportionately Scottish.
    Andy_JS said:



    Do you work for Gary Sambrook?

    I'm afraid not but I did use to live near Northfield!

    I was not excluding Scottish MP's from pocket stuffing by the way.
    My statement was about Scottish constituents. I get that you don't like MPs, but it doesn't help anyone if they or their staffers are sitting at home twiddling their thumbs with all their office equipment locked up in London (or even Edinburgh, I've not looked into it but I'd imagine MSPs will be getting extra equipment for their staffers as well). If the MPs are getting paid anyway, surely you'd rather they had no excuse not to do their jobs?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,495

    HYUFD said:
    If people didn't act like fuckwits they would not have to take such measures.

    Follow the rules. It's simple.
    Sitting on a bench during your exercise session is not acting like a fuckwit. Taping up a bandstand is the act of a fuckwit.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438
    That would be why it's hitting the ethnic minorities so hard.

    Rather like the conspiracy theory about the Chinese trying to destroy the West by releasing a deadly virus in ... China!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,385
    TGOHF666 said:
    Well, I’m feeling pretty smug from my prediction earlier :)

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,055
    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
    What do you think a millionaire pension looks like?

    It's about 30k per year. Senior nurses, tube drivers, headmasters. They all get that.
    Exactly, all public sector workers. Most private sector workers are retiring on a fraction of that pension.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,536
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Barney v Taylor in their living rooms:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=He09d9Oi0f8

    That's awesome to watch! Great to see some innovative events being put on as we're all stuck at home.
    Great comeback from Barney, shame he missed the double 12 for the nine darter.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,190

    HYUFD said:
    If people didn't act like fuckwits they would not have to take such measures.

    Follow the rules. It's simple.
    Sitting on a bench during your exercise session is not acting like a fuckwit. Taping up a bandstand is the act of a fuckwit.
    Sitting on a bench is not a form of exercise. If you need a sit down you are 'exercising' beyond what is reasonable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,362

    TGOHF666 said:
    Well, I’m feeling pretty smug from my prediction earlier :)

    Certainly better than Eadric and Mystic who whilst wishing him well were clearly positioning themselves for yet another I told you so.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,372
    Good news that the PM has been moved out of ICU.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,095
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Well, I’m feeling pretty smug from my prediction earlier :)

    Certainly better than Eadric and Mystic who whilst wishing him well were clearly positioning themselves for yet another I told you so.
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1248319702025359361?s=20
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,869
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    Chris said:

    Alistair said:



    I'm getting naked at numbers that are actually false and confirmably false with 30 seconds of checking.

    ?
    The graph isam posted with the wacky trend line that showed a number of people were brought back to life by the Corona virus at the start of March. It's numbers do not match the source it says it takes them from.
    Let’s see...

    https://twitter.com/asfarasdelgados/status/1248311155837284355?s=21

    What a clype!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,495

    HYUFD said:
    If people didn't act like fuckwits they would not have to take such measures.

    Follow the rules. It's simple.
    Sitting on a bench during your exercise session is not acting like a fuckwit. Taping up a bandstand is the act of a fuckwit.
    Sitting on a bench is not a form of exercise. If you need a sit down you are 'exercising' beyond what is reasonable.
    Oh have a word with yourself.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,584

    Good news about the PM being out of ICU.

    Many historians believe that Franklin Delano Roosevelt would NOT have been the President he became without the live-changing experience of contracting and overcoming polio.

    Is it possible, that Boris Johnson may have a new and improved perspective, empathy, determination and (dare I say) maturity based on his own harrowing experience?

    It is noticeable that both Conservative and Labour politicians have come to realise that many more workers are key workers than they previously imagined. It's shelf-stackers as well as nurses.

    Here is Dominic Raab from tonight:

    Thank you to all of those who are looking after us in our time of need.

    The NHS workers on the front line who have treated the sick, saved lives and tended for those who, sadly, could not be saved.

    For the doctors and nurses who have died of Coronavirus whilst caring for others, we will never forget their sacrifice, we will never forget their devotion to helping others.

    And I also want to say a big thank you to the carers, the charity workers, all those who are looking after, or even just keeping an eye on, those in their local neighbourhood. You are the lifeline to so many people in our communities.

    Thank you to the workers who keep the country running, the supermarket workers, the delivery drivers, the technicians, the cleaners, the public servants who just kept going, determined to keep providing the daily services we all rely on.

    I think you’ve certainly made us all think long and hard about who the “key workers” are in our lives.

    Thank you to the volunteers who have stepped up across the country, whose big-hearted sense of responsibility defines British community spirit at its very best.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-secretarys-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-9-april-2020
  • So I reckon that’s Robert Jenrick next out of the cabinet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,362
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Omnium said:

    Genuinely not sure how I feel about this. MPs getting an additional 10K each for their offices to be transferred to home working. Seems wrong to me when no one else is being helped in this way.

    https://mcusercontent.com/5c1bd78521a0f65af80876eca/files/cfb4143a-6a9b-4439-9fdf-94b2626318bc/IPSA_Coronavirus_Guidance_version_19_03_2020.pdf

    I'm all for it. We need to accumulate evidence for the hangings.

    Some MPs are really quite poor financially. (Many more very poor generally).

    If there is a demonstrable need for that funding then that's fine. A very slight increase in the rope budget might also be wise.
    There will be very very few, those outside the safe seats for life , that do not retire millionaires.
    Evening Malcolm.

    Quite true, but then being a millionaire as a pensioner these days is meaningless. My brother, who works for the state in an average sort of a job, has a pension that is worth a million or so.

    The 'millionaire' tag really has to move on to be around the 10 million mark.

    Actually the SNP MPs have slightly higher costs in their long commute. Cheaper home costs though too. (The croft being cheaper than a house obviously!)
    No. It's almost impossible for 95% of private sector workers to retire with such massive millionaire pensions. It's become a huge disconnect between public and private sector since Brown's reforms in 1998.
    What do you think a millionaire pension looks like?

    It's about 30k per year. Senior nurses, tube drivers, headmasters. They all get that.
    The defined benefit valuation ratio is 20:1, so that’s a bit off. Although closer for a defined contribution pension (which none of those have).
    Muck higher than 20:1. I`ve seen 50:1. 35 - 40:1 is typical. £30k pa, index linked at age 65 would easily be over £1m.
    Yet the official ratio is 20:1. You are right that this is historical and doesn’t reflect current valuation ratios.
    I think the 20:1 ratio to which you refer is the calculation used against the lifetime allowance.
    And still isn’t that far away from many DB schemes commutation rates.
This discussion has been closed.