The media really should be taking this and making it into a clear infographic.
It's pretty clear, the media, as a collective noun, don't understand charts. Hence the proliferation of narrative questions when the daily announcement actually contains interesting slides they could ask about if they had the confidence to think on their feet.
There must be some f##ker in their organisations that did a STEM subject, rather than PPE or history of art at uni....looks up Laura K, Robert Peston and Beth Rigby education...Oh....I see what you mean.
The media really should be taking this and making it into a clear infographic.
It's pretty clear, the media, as a collective noun, don't understand charts. Hence the proliferation of narrative questions when the daily announcement actually contains interesting slides they could ask about if they had the confidence to think on their feet.
There must be some f##ker in their organisations that did a STEM subject, rather than PPE or history of art at uni....looks up Laura K, Robert Peston and Beth Rigby education...Oh....I see what you mean.
Don't be mean about PPE unless you think Lagrangian's are an easy arts subject cop out. Anyway for once the world seems united in wanting more PPE.
Mr. Urquhart, not quite the same, but on my psychology course (some years ago now), as well as being almost the only chap I was also almost the only person who had a Maths A-level (admittedly, a poor one). That came in surprisingly handy for the stat-stuff on Eigenvalues (from memory, single topics that aim to be measured by psychometric questionnaires) and various other matters.
"EU Corona-bonds look dead in the water"...its the problem when you have so many nations with completely different economies, debt levels, etc.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKJqOtwu-9o
Massive problems here for the Euro. They're either going to have to agree something that looks like a fiscal union (with direct EU taxes) or the single currency is in serious trouble. Printing money was the easy option and they're not taking it.
"48 seconds to save the Euro!"..."47"..."46"..."45"...
I have had in mind for some time now a blog which covers things other than work stuff (which I do on my work website). It will be mainly about gardens (mine and others) and the joys of trying to rebuild a house, making a new life somewhere very different to where I have mostly lived plus, if I feel like it, books, music, stuff about Italy etc and photos. It’s mainly for me really - and my one imaginary interested reader with whom I having a serendipitous conversation remotely. Now is the obvious time to do this.
What it should be called though eludes me. I normally enjoy dreaming up titles. But am stuck.
One of my children rather unkindly suggested “Why I am Right about Everything” which made me laugh but is a bit long. “From London to the Lakes” was another but is a bit twee. Something witty and / or eccentric would be nice. But brain has turned to mush. So if anyone has any brilliant ideas please let me know me.
Thanks v much.
Go with your offsping's suggestion!
James O’Brien already wrote the book. @Cyclefree would have to be wrong about almost everything if her blog were to be an accompaniment to it, though
The media really should be taking this and making it into a clear infographic.
It's pretty clear, the media, as a collective noun, don't understand charts. Hence the proliferation of narrative questions when the daily announcement actually contains interesting slides they could ask about if they had the confidence to think on their feet.
Someone, anyone, with a scientific background would do wonders for the coverage. If just one media company could bring their own expert to ask questions it would make such a difference.
In my location, border Lancs and Cumbria, there are definitely more people about than a few days ago, with Morecambe about 5 or 6 miles away, I expect there will be plenty of people out this weekend. All the mobile home parks and camp sites are closed and eerily quiet, normally Easter would see the arrival of the "Trippers". I am keeping to one bike ride a day, but making it a good long one, I have gone for out of the way places, usually around Bowland, where you never see anyone even in normal times.
I have had in mind for some time now a blog which covers things other than work stuff (which I do on my work website). It will be mainly about gardens (mine and others) and the joys of trying to rebuild a house, making a new life somewhere very different to where I have mostly lived plus, if I feel like it, books, music, stuff about Italy etc and photos. It’s mainly for me really - and my one imaginary interested reader with whom I having a serendipitous conversation remotely. Now is the obvious time to do this.
What it should be called though eludes me. I normally enjoy dreaming up titles. But am stuck.
One of my children rather unkindly suggested “Why I am Right about Everything” which made me laugh but is a bit long. “From London to the Lakes” was another but is a bit twee. Something witty and / or eccentric would be nice. But brain has turned to mush. So if anyone has any brilliant ideas please let me know me.
Thanks v much.
Go with your offsping's suggestion!
I'd agree. But then I remember the whole chocolate controversy, and...
The anomalously low value for the final point on the blue curve changes the shape of the graph completely to make it look like it was peaking, when it obviously wasn't. It well illustrates the danger of fitting curves with many degrees of freedom to too few data points.
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
I have seen so many dodgy trend line fitting going on. Anything that at the very least doesn't include covariance / confidence areas either side should be handled in the same way as public door handles at the moment.
The media really should be taking this and making it into a clear infographic.
It's pretty clear, the media, as a collective noun, don't understand charts. Hence the proliferation of narrative questions when the daily announcement actually contains interesting slides they could ask about if they had the confidence to think on their feet.
There must be some f##ker in their organisations that did a STEM subject, rather than PPE or history of art at uni....looks up Laura K, Robert Peston and Beth Rigby education...Oh....I see what you mean.
Don't be mean about PPE unless you think Lagrangian's are an easy arts subject cop out. Anyway for once the world seems united in wanting more PPE.
Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054502v1 ...We found that an increase of only 1 μg/m3 in PM2.5 is associated with a 15% increase in the COVID-19 death rate, 95% confidence interval (CI) (5%, 25%). Results are statistically significant and robust to secondary and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis...
The media really should be taking this and making it into a clear infographic.
It's pretty clear, the media, as a collective noun, don't understand charts. Hence the proliferation of narrative questions when the daily announcement actually contains interesting slides they could ask about if they had the confidence to think on their feet.
Someone, anyone, with a scientific background would do wonders for the coverage. If just one media company could bring their own expert to ask questions it would make such a difference.
This really has made me question, if they actually know anything about anything, other than Westminster gossip. And also, the lack of research they are doing. There is no real sign they have genuinely educated themselves on much of what is going on.
The amount of resources out there at the moment are incredible, and some brilliant content explaining some of the underlying concepts such as SIR modelling really well.
I have had in mind for some time now a blog which covers things other than work stuff (which I do on my work website). It will be mainly about gardens (mine and others) and the joys of trying to rebuild a house, making a new life somewhere very different to where I have mostly lived plus, if I feel like it, books, music, stuff about Italy etc and photos. It’s mainly for me really - and my one imaginary interested reader with whom I having a serendipitous conversation remotely. Now is the obvious time to do this.
What it should be called though eludes me. I normally enjoy dreaming up titles. But am stuck.
One of my children rather unkindly suggested “Why I am Right about Everything” which made me laugh but is a bit long. “From London to the Lakes” was another but is a bit twee. Something witty and / or eccentric would be nice. But brain has turned to mush. So if anyone has any brilliant ideas please let me know me.
Thanks v much.
Go with your offsping's suggestion!
James O’Brien already wrote the book. @Cyclefree would have to be wrong about almost everything if her blog were to be an accompaniment to it, though
@Cyclefree - there are thousands of (mainly self-published) books on Amazon. Look on there for title ideas. Remember there is no copyright for book titles and having a good title can make a ginormous difference to sales.
The anomalously low value for the final point on the blue curve changes the shape of the graph completely to make it look like it was peaking, when it obviously wasn't. It well illustrates the danger of fitting curves with many degrees of freedom to too few data points.
The striking thing is that the final day is the only one where ONS deaths are less than hospital deaths, which shouldn't be possible. Suspect it's because not all the deaths that actually happened on 27 March had been registered by 1 April. And without that, the supposed flattening of the blue curve vanishes.
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
Graph only goes up to the 27th March - thats a lifetime ago in Covid world.
Exactly. And as we know, the death rate has increased rapidly since then, so any indication at that time that we were reaching a peak was obviously incorrect. Why was it incorrect? Because of the dodgy curve fitting, as pointed out by Alistair and myself.
I have had in mind for some time now a blog which covers things other than work stuff (which I do on my work website). It will be mainly about gardens (mine and others) and the joys of trying to rebuild a house, making a new life somewhere very different to where I have mostly lived plus, if I feel like it, books, music, stuff about Italy etc and photos. It’s mainly for me really - and my one imaginary interested reader with whom I having a serendipitous conversation remotely. Now is the obvious time to do this.
What it should be called though eludes me. I normally enjoy dreaming up titles. But am stuck.
One of my children rather unkindly suggested “Why I am Right about Everything” which made me laugh but is a bit long. “From London to the Lakes” was another but is a bit twee. Something witty and / or eccentric would be nice. But brain has turned to mush. So if anyone has any brilliant ideas please let me know me.
"EU Corona-bonds look dead in the water"...its the problem when you have so many nations with completely different economies, debt levels, etc.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKJqOtwu-9o
Massive problems here for the Euro. They're either going to have to agree something that looks like a fiscal union (with direct EU taxes) or the single currency is in serious trouble. Printing money was the easy option and they're not taking it.
The Euro was always a daft project other than as the penultimate step to a truly unified Europe. Thank heavens that Gordon BrownWilliam Hague Dominic Cummings stopped us joining. As @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo (iirc) used to discuss here, it is also a trap in that countries that should not have joined and would be better off out, cannot escape because the transition would destroy their economies.
All that said, perhaps this particular spat tells us more about the limits of pan-EU solidarity than about the Euro.
"EU Corona-bonds look dead in the water"...its the problem when you have so many nations with completely different economies, debt levels, etc.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKJqOtwu-9o
Massive problems here for the Euro. They're either going to have to agree something that looks like a fiscal union (with direct EU taxes) or the single currency is in serious trouble. Printing money was the easy option and they're not taking it.
"48 seconds to save the Euro!"..."47"..."46"..."45"...
Tbh, this is exactly the kind of crisis that can once and for all fix the problems the Euro has. The worry is that the people won't agree and decide to leave the relative safety of the EMU for the wild rapids of the open market making everything much worse.
As I've said many times before, in the same way I was a leave or all in voter (I didn't much agree with the half in/half out approach we had) I think the EMU needs to be an all or nothing club, this half in/half out approach just leads to crisis afte crisis and constant stagnation.
There will come a point where either the government starts to relax the rules - or people will stop listening and take matters into their own hands. Anyone who thinks this will be our new normal forever is mad.
But then the government and its advisors know that and were warning about that before the lockdown started.
Agreed, but we're not there yet.
Equally, though, we're not going back to normal soon whatever the government does. Many people are going to continue to work from home if they can, avoid contact, and certainly avoid bars, restaurants, flights, cruise ships etc etc, until it's clearly safe again, irrespective of whether the rules are relaxed.
The rule breakers get disproportionate coverage by the press (understandably). I think people will carry on doing as they are asked for longer than the media might expect.
Telegraph journalists in particular seem to be the most keen for an end to lockdown. Even young people who know they might not be particularly at risk of dieing know it's a pretty horrible illness to go through if you're even a moderate case and would like to see their parents (safely) again at some point.
I have had in mind for some time now a blog which covers things other than work stuff (which I do on my work website). It will be mainly about gardens (mine and others) and the joys of trying to rebuild a house, making a new life somewhere very different to where I have mostly lived plus, if I feel like it, books, music, stuff about Italy etc and photos. It’s mainly for me really - and my one imaginary interested reader with whom I having a serendipitous conversation remotely. Now is the obvious time to do this.
What it should be called though eludes me. I normally enjoy dreaming up titles. But am stuck.
One of my children rather unkindly suggested “Why I am Right about Everything” which made me laugh but is a bit long. “From London to the Lakes” was another but is a bit twee. Something witty and / or eccentric would be nice. But brain has turned to mush. So if anyone has any brilliant ideas please let me know me.
Thanks v much.
Go with your offsping's suggestion!
If too long, abridge a bit to "I'm right about everything".
Nothing contentious there.
While amusing it's too easy to be taken unhumourously I fear.
I reckon it will last til the end of May, possibly longer. Mid June?
However there may be some tinkering within that. Perhaps some schools and small shops will be allowed to open, etc
Primary schools first perhaps.
The trouble with primary schools is vast numbers of parents waiting outside the school gates each afternoon, where often social distancing is impracticable.
I have had in mind for some time now a blog which covers things other than work stuff (which I do on my work website). It will be mainly about gardens (mine and others) and the joys of trying to rebuild a house, making a new life somewhere very different to where I have mostly lived plus, if I feel like it, books, music, stuff about Italy etc and photos. It’s mainly for me really - and my one imaginary interested reader with whom I having a serendipitous conversation remotely. Now is the obvious time to do this.
What it should be called though eludes me. I normally enjoy dreaming up titles. But am stuck.
One of my children rather unkindly suggested “Why I am Right about Everything” which made me laugh but is a bit long. “From London to the Lakes” was another but is a bit twee. Something witty and / or eccentric would be nice. But brain has turned to mush. So if anyone has any brilliant ideas please let me know me.
Thanks v much.
'Why I am Right' is shorter, 'I am Right' even shorter..
I have had in mind for some time now a blog which covers things other than work stuff (which I do on my work website). It will be mainly about gardens (mine and others) and the joys of trying to rebuild a house, making a new life somewhere very different to where I have mostly lived plus, if I feel like it, books, music, stuff about Italy etc and photos. It’s mainly for me really - and my one imaginary interested reader with whom I having a serendipitous conversation remotely. Now is the obvious time to do this.
What it should be called though eludes me. I normally enjoy dreaming up titles. But am stuck.
One of my children rather unkindly suggested “Why I am Right about Everything” which made me laugh but is a bit long. “From London to the Lakes” was another but is a bit twee. Something witty and / or eccentric would be nice. But brain has turned to mush. So if anyone has any brilliant ideas please let me know me.
Thanks v much.
The internal sightseer / internal sightseer / the baedeker interior / baedeker's interiors.
George McGovern, another movement politician, was routed in his effort to become president in 1972 but people immersed in that campaign—from Gary Hart to Bill and Hillary Clinton—were dominant figures in American politics for the next 45 years.
“A lot will depend on what he does now,” Hart said in an interview from self-isolation in his mountainside home in Colorado.
He recommended that Sanders devote himself vigorously and with no sullenness to energizing young Democrats—who polls showed are among the least enthusiastic about Biden’s candidacy—to supporting the party’s nominee in the fall.
Hart, who in 1984 mobilized a younger generation of voters while losing the nomination, also urged Sanders to recognize that the coronavirus pandemic has changed politics in ways that render some ideological debates obsolete. Perhaps in January, the difference between Biden’s cautious progressivism and Sanders’ radical version was something worth arguing about. Now, Hart said, “The plague has changed everything.” With trillions being spent in what threatens to be this generation’s Great Depression, “Joe Biden may end up being Bernie Sanders squared just by circumstance....
Another interesting aspect of the deaths by day reporting table is how much movements in the headline numbers are just artefacts of changing reporting lags as we move through this.
Clearly we don't know how much of a data tail there will be for the most recent days, but there is a clear trend of a higher proportion of deaths being reported inside 2 or 3 days with the lag getting shorter. Hence there is far more of a growing trend in the daily headlines than actually appears when looking at the latest total for each day, where apart from the miracle on March 31st, the numbers are remarkably flat.
Something worth exploring in sunnier times might the continuing disparities in the fortunes of SNP and Plaid Cymru. In the first devolved elections of 1999 Plaid did really quite well and seemed quite a threat.
Plaid don't do well outside of Welsh-speaking Wales (is there a name for this area like Ireland has the Gaeltacht?) The SNP has no such limitations.
There is indeed a distinct Gàidhealtachd in Scotland, but I'd say the difference is perhaps that the Welsh/non Welsh speaking ratio is AIUI a surrogate indicator of past/present English immigration, and the Saesneg incomer or their descendants would not think of Wales as a natural polity. Whereas in Scotland the equivalent ratio is simply a matter of whether the locals are primarily Gaels, with Gaelic as the first language, or Lowlanders primarily speaking Scots, to which English is of course sib. No obvious great political distinction, though of course the LDs used to do well in tyhe crofting areas becvause of Gladstone and the Free Kirks.
It's interesting that the originally smooth linguistic gradient across Tweed has become a discontinuity at the river, with Scots sounding much morte distinct from Northumbrians/Geordies, in recent decades. I wonder if there is anything like that at Severn or Dee?
The media really should be taking this and making it into a clear infographic.
It's pretty clear, the media, as a collective noun, don't understand charts. Hence the proliferation of narrative questions when the daily announcement actually contains interesting slides they could ask about if they had the confidence to think on their feet.
Someone, anyone, with a scientific background would do wonders for the coverage. If just one media company could bring their own expert to ask questions it would make such a difference.
This really has made me question, if they actually know anything about anything, other than Westminster gossip. And also, the lack of research they are doing. There is no real sign they have genuinely educated themselves on much of what is going on.
The amount of resources out there at the moment are incredible, and some brilliant content explaining some of the underlying concepts such as SIR modelling really well.
I've often noted over the years that the media in general, and the 24h TV news in particular, have been really poor at reporting on technical subjects on which I have some knowledge (I work in IT and have a keen amateur interest in aviation), have lamented that if their reporting on something I know about is total crap, then how's about the other 90% of stuff when I am expecting them to be the ones informing me!
Now that we have a technical subject on which thousands of lives are depending, the news media really need to step up their game. Very little sign of that so far, sadly.
What I don't understand, is that the senior management of the news networks must be watching their output and thinking it's good.
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
Another plot that only goes up to the 27th of March. Remind me what the date is today again. The reason he managed it is that he's got an agenda to push.
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
I don't think you can accuse people of trying to fake curves when you suggest he ignores a data point which doesn't fit what you want it to.
Given the final day's data is likely incomplete I think you can.
All the data is incomplete - I was just pointing out the inherent absurdity of - "that data's been fiddled - ignore this data point and it would be different"
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
I don't think you can accuse people of trying to fake curves when you suggest he ignores a data point which doesn't fit what you want it to.
Given the final day's data is likely incomplete I think you can.
All the data is incomplete - I was just pointing out the inherent absurdity of - "that data's been fiddled - ignore this data point and it would be different"
Its not inherently absurd if one data point looks like an anomaly and the rest is showing the same trend to point out the anomaly.
Great to hear about your new venture @Cyclefree. I met a very nice lady through work called Fiona Maclean, and her blog is called London Unattached, and has become incredibly popular: https://www.london-unattached.com/
I mention it because the title is very simple, to the point, is niche enough, but also incredibly identifiable (many unattached people in London), and has allowed her to grow.
I don't have a genius idea for yours, but perhaps this might help you think of one.
The trouble with primary schools is vast numbers of parents waiting outside the school gates each afternoon, where often social distancing is impracticable.
It would be most effective for allowing parents back to work. That's my thinking.
I've seen people estimating whether or not we'll have much herd immunity after the current wave has topped out.
For clarity, the proportion of the population that will be immune (and the R0 number we'd need to get the infectivity down to) can be easily worked out.
Amount infected (and presumed immune) is In Population of UK (66.65 million) is P Death rate from coronavirus is r Number dead is D
(NB: death rate must include asymptomatic and very mild infections. The current Case Fatality Rate ignores these. With asymptomatic cases taken into account, I've seen estimates of "A bit under 1%", "0.66%", and "0.37%", but the latter is the most optimistic one I've seen)
In = D / (P * r)
And the number to which we must decrease infectivity, Rt (at the moment, we aim to get this number below 1.0 to break away from the exponential) is given by 1/(1-In)
Examples: if 20,000 deaths are incurred in the current wave, the figures for three examples are: r=1%: In=3.0%, Rt=1.03 r=0.66%: In=4.5%, Rt=1.05 r=0.37%: In=8.1%, Rt=1.09
What exactly are you saying Rt represents here? As currently defined, as Ln tends to 1 (i.e. herd immunity is achieved), Rt rises and takes us further from 1.0. Indeed, unless the Ln became negative, which it can't, we could never get Rt below 1 as you've defined it.
Rt is the target R0 number.
If the natural R0 is, say, 2.5, then when In rises to the point that Rt is 2.5 or greater, we have achieved herd immunity. (this requires an In of 60% or greater)
If no-one is infected/immune, then In is zero and Rt is 1.0 (we must keep it no higher than 1.0)
At the moment, we need to social distance/lockdown to the point where we drive Rt down to 1.0 or below. At certain levels of immunity, we would be able to get away with driving Rt down to, say, 1.5 or below, or 2.0 or below, and so on. This allows for a graduated lifting of restrictions.
Makes sense now thanks. In practice the heterogeneity of social interaction means the R0 varies between social groups, according, to factors such as occupation, population density and household size. I think this is part of the reason the infection rate seems to differ by ethnic group. This means that the proportion of the population that needs to be infection or inoculated could be quite a bit less than generally believed, which is good news. Although using the death rate to estimate the proportion of the population who have already been affected, adjusted for lags, may be lead to an overestimate at this stage due to the high proportion of infections incurred in care homes and hospitals.
I made a plot of the NHS England statistics showing how the death rate increases with subsequent daily announcements. Incomplete at the first part since they only have these releases going back to the 2nd of April.
Given the lousy PPE equipment or rather the lack of it that they're required to wear into battle, it's more like fighting against the odds in Boulton Paul Defiants or even Fairey Battles.
This is truly shocking given the absence of planning that it evidences:
I am not in ICU, but our juniors have been redeployed there. ICU has all the kit. It is on the general wards that it is a bit dicy, but paradoxically that is where the risk is. Ventilated patients do not aerosol.
Still the weekend is here and I have arranged a virtual pub meet up for staff on Zoom for later.
There will come a point where either the government starts to relax the rules - or people will stop listening and take matters into their own hands. Anyone who thinks this will be our new normal forever is mad.
But then the government and its advisors know that and were warning about that before the lockdown started.
Agreed, but we're not there yet.
Equally, though, we're not going back to normal soon whatever the government does. Many people are going to continue to work from home if they can, avoid contact, and certainly avoid bars, restaurants, flights, cruise ships etc etc, until it's clearly safe again, irrespective of whether the rules are relaxed.
Yep - that's my position and the position of some of my direct reports
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
I don't think you can accuse people of trying to fake curves when you suggest he ignores a data point which doesn't fit what you want it to.
Given the final day's data is likely incomplete I think you can.
All the data is incomplete - I was just pointing out the inherent absurdity of - "that data's been fiddled - ignore this data point and it would be different"
Its not inherently absurd if one data point looks like an anomaly and the rest is showing the same trend to point out the anomaly.
It may be a fair point intended, but the phrasing is inherently absurd. The real complaint is about data selection, not the curve drawn through them which is clearly an excel curve drawn through the data chosen without manual intervention.
"EU Corona-bonds look dead in the water"...its the problem when you have so many nations with completely different economies, debt levels, etc.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKJqOtwu-9o
Massive problems here for the Euro. They're either going to have to agree something that looks like a fiscal union (with direct EU taxes) or the single currency is in serious trouble. Printing money was the easy option and they're not taking it.
"48 seconds to save the Euro!"..."47"..."46"..."45"...
Tbh, this is exactly the kind of crisis that can once and for all fix the problems the Euro has. The worry is that the people won't agree and decide to leave the relative safety of the EMU for the wild rapids of the open market making everything much worse.
As I've said many times before, in the same way I was a leave or all in voter (I didn't much agree with the half in/half out approach we had) I think the EMU needs to be an all or nothing club, this half in/half out approach just leads to crisis afte crisis and constant stagnation.
I think it's likely that the crisis and its consequences may change the structures of the Eurozone to some extent, but I'm not sure that will fix all of the problems, hopefully some of them.
The somewhat half-hearted construct of the common currency has indeed created some problems. The major car-crash in Greece and minor ones in other countries were clearly induced by the GFC, though. Italy has, in fact, seen decades of stagnation, but these are - to a large degree - down to Italian homemade structural problems. It would be overstating to blame the Italian situation entirely on the Euro.
I made a plot of the NHS England statistics showing how the death rate increases with subsequent daily announcements. Incomplete at the first part since they only have these releases going back to the 2nd of April.
I think the interesting question is what proportion of total deaths is reporting by day 1, 2, 3 after the actual day.
For April 7th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far announced came on the first day than was the case for April 6th
For April 6th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far came in the first 2 days than for April 5th
For April 5th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far came in the first 3 days than for April 4th
We'll have to see obviously, but it looks like they're getting better at reporting earlier. If that were the case it would produce a spike in the daily numbers even if the underlying trend was flat.
Given the lousy PPE equipment or rather the lack of it that they're required to wear into battle, it's more like fighting against the odds in Boulton Paul Defiants or even Fairey Battles.
This is truly shocking given the absence of planning that it evidences:
I am not in ICU, but our juniors have been redeployed there. ICU has all the kit. It is on the general wards that it is a bit dicy, but paradoxically that is where the risk is. Ventilated patients do not aerosol.
Still the weekend is here and I have arranged a virtual pub meet up for staff on Zoom for later.
This from Linus Tech Tips on 3D-printing masks in Canada (using Czech printers and designs) is interesting. (And there are similar diy projects around the world.) One question it prompts is why HMG could not find a proper company, or do we not do injection moulding here? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgPj6e3jtz0
Given the lousy PPE equipment or rather the lack of it that they're required to wear into battle, it's more like fighting against the odds in Boulton Paul Defiants or even Fairey Battles.
This is truly shocking given the absence of planning that it evidences:
I am not in ICU, but our juniors have been redeployed there. ICU has all the kit. It is on the general wards that it is a bit dicy, but paradoxically that is where the risk is. Ventilated patients do not aerosol.
Still the weekend is here and I have arranged a virtual pub meet up for staff on Zoom for later.
This from Linus Tech Tips on 3D-printing masks in Canada (using Czech printers and designs) is interesting. (And there are similar diy projects around the world.) One question it prompts is why HMG could not find a proper company, or do we not do injection moulding here? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgPj6e3jtz0
Does the Government need to do everything? They've given the NHS a vast pile of money, is there nothing that the NHS, their trusts, and other agencies concerned could actually do to, you know, order stuff?
Given the lousy PPE equipment or rather the lack of it that they're required to wear into battle, it's more like fighting against the odds in Boulton Paul Defiants or even Fairey Battles.
This is truly shocking given the absence of planning that it evidences:
I am not in ICU, but our juniors have been redeployed there. ICU has all the kit. It is on the general wards that it is a bit dicy, but paradoxically that is where the risk is. Ventilated patients do not aerosol.
Still the weekend is here and I have arranged a virtual pub meet up for staff on Zoom for later.
This from Linus Tech Tips on 3D-printing masks in Canada (using Czech printers and designs) is interesting. (And there are similar diy projects around the world.) One question it prompts is why HMG could not find a proper company, or do we not do injection moulding here? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgPj6e3jtz0
Does the Government need to do everything? They've given the NHS a vast pile of money, is there nothing that the NHS, their trusts, and other agencies concerned could actually do to, you know, order stuff?
100 trusts should order stuff from where? That is what has been happening with less than ideal results. We need not Spitfire pilots but a Minister of Production who can buy IP regardless of cost and place large orders with firms who normally make something else.
Code of Misconduct is brilliant! I may use that for something else I am writing. A Life of Misconduct appeals - it is enigmatic about which life and whether the misconduct is continuing.
Vita piu lenta is lovely - it is certainly what I am aspiring to, though I am surprisingly busy for someone under quarantine.
Incidentally, I heard yesterday evening that my Italian aunt who did have the virus - or all the symptoms of it, she was not tested - has pulled through and is now fine, which was some joyous news last night. When I saw the call from an Italian number I feared the worst. But no. Phew!
I made a plot of the NHS England statistics showing how the death rate increases with subsequent daily announcements. Incomplete at the first part since they only have these releases going back to the 2nd of April.
I think the interesting question is what proportion of total deaths is reporting by day 1, 2, 3 after the actual day.
For April 7th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far announced came on the first day than was the case for April 6th
For April 6th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far came in the first 2 days than for April 5th
For April 5th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far came in the first 3 days than for April 4th
We'll have to see obviously, but it looks like they're getting better at reporting earlier. If that were the case it would produce a spike in the daily numbers even if the underlying trend was flat.
I think a plot like this answers that question. Each plot shows the number of deaths x days prior to the release date.
Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
It's not so much that deaths are unknown - it's that people take a long time to die, so the apparent fatality rate carries on increasing well after the peak has been passed.
It looks to me as though we can expect something like 0.5%.
I reckon it will last til the end of May, possibly longer. Mid June?
However there may be some tinkering within that. Perhaps some schools and small shops will be allowed to open, etc
Primary schools first perhaps.
The trouble with primary schools is vast numbers of parents waiting outside the school gates each afternoon, where often social distancing is impracticable.
Even moreso, the pupils are impossible to keep socially distanced from each other and staff. The only level at which returning makes sense is the first year of GCSE and A Level groups, where they understand and/or can be forced to keep well apart.
Mostly.
Well, thinking about it, as soon as they were left to their own devices they would be getting too close to each other as well.....
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
Another plot that only goes up to the 27th of March. Remind me what the date is today again. The reason he managed it is that he's got an agenda to push.
Why would he have an agenda to push? The ONS data only goes up to 27th March I think. That’s a good enough reason to stop it there for me
On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.
"EU Corona-bonds look dead in the water"...its the problem when you have so many nations with completely different economies, debt levels, etc.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKJqOtwu-9o
Massive problems here for the Euro. They're either going to have to agree something that looks like a fiscal union (with direct EU taxes) or the single currency is in serious trouble. Printing money was the easy option and they're not taking it.
"48 seconds to save the Euro!"..."47"..."46"..."45"...
Tbh, this is exactly the kind of crisis that can once and for all fix the problems the Euro has. The worry is that the people won't agree and decide to leave the relative safety of the EMU for the wild rapids of the open market making everything much worse.
As I've said many times before, in the same way I was a leave or all in voter (I didn't much agree with the half in/half out approach we had) I think the EMU needs to be an all or nothing club, this half in/half out approach just leads to crisis afte crisis and constant stagnation.
I think it's likely that the crisis and its consequences may change the structures of the Eurozone to some extent, but I'm not sure that will fix all of the problems, hopefully some of them.
The somewhat half-hearted construct of the common currency has indeed created some problems. The major car-crash in Greece and minor ones in other countries were clearly induced by the GFC, though. Italy has, in fact, seen decades of stagnation, but these are - to a large degree - down to Italian homemade structural problems. It would be overstating to blame the Italian situation entirely on the Euro.
The issues of Italy and Greece should have been resolved way back in 1999-2001, but it was politically expedient at the time to ignore the fact that their numbers weren't even close to adding up.
The other issue is a lack of EU demos among the general population (outside the political elites), as we have seen in the past few weeks when it's been every country for themselves. The only way the Euro remains stable is now for massive fiscal transfers and direct tax raising by the EU, before one or more member states crashes out of the Euro.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
Do you think it would re-solidify if daily deaths went up to 2000? 3000?
I think we're probably still plumbing the depths of the population's stupidity.
I made a plot of the NHS England statistics showing how the death rate increases with subsequent daily announcements. Incomplete at the first part since they only have these releases going back to the 2nd of April.
I think the interesting question is what proportion of total deaths is reporting by day 1, 2, 3 after the actual day.
For April 7th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far announced came on the first day than was the case for April 6th
For April 6th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far came in the first 2 days than for April 5th
For April 5th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far came in the first 3 days than for April 4th
We'll have to see obviously, but it looks like they're getting better at reporting earlier. If that were the case it would produce a spike in the daily numbers even if the underlying trend was flat.
I think a plot like this answers that question. Each plot shows the number of deaths x days prior to the release date.
Ta very useful and shows a similar trend of increasingly quick reporting. I was looking at the data from the other dimension, to give an example for April 7th we have 2 days of reporting, showing 135 then 284, whilst the first 2 days of reporting for April 6th were 81 then 301 - so materially more frontloaded on the latter day. If you do the same comparison for preceding days where more days are visible, you get the same pattern.
I have had in mind for some time now a blog which covers things other than work stuff (which I do on my work website). It will be mainly about gardens (mine and others) and the joys of trying to rebuild a house, making a new life somewhere very different to where I have mostly lived plus, if I feel like it, books, music, stuff about Italy etc and photos. It’s mainly for me really - and my one imaginary interested reader with whom I having a serendipitous conversation remotely. Now is the obvious time to do this.
What it should be called though eludes me. I normally enjoy dreaming up titles. But am stuck.
One of my children rather unkindly suggested “Why I am Right about Everything” which made me laugh but is a bit long. “From London to the Lakes” was another but is a bit twee. Something witty and / or eccentric would be nice. But brain has turned to mush. So if anyone has any brilliant ideas please let me know me.
As in Cicero, Ad Familiares IX.4, 'Si hortum in bibliotheca habes, deerit nihil' = 'If you have a garden in your library [i.e. a garden and a library], you shall want for nothing'.
Alternatively 'Hortus in Bibliotheca', if you'd like it to be a free-standing nominative phrase rather than a quotation.
Code of Misconduct is brilliant! I may use that for something else I am writing. A Life of Misconduct appeals - it is enigmatic about which life and whether the misconduct is continuing.
Vita piu lenta is lovely - it is certainly what I am aspiring to, though I am surprisingly busy for someone under quarantine.
Incidentally, I heard yesterday evening that my Italian aunt who did have the virus - or all the symptoms of it, she was not tested - has pulled through and is now fine, which was some joyous news last night. When I saw the call from an Italian number I feared the worst. But no. Phew!
Maybe I should go for “Tutto andra bene”.
Or go for “VPL”, millennial-style and benefit from the discordance between what you mean and first reactions.
Code of Misconduct is brilliant! I may use that for something else I am writing. A Life of Misconduct appeals - it is enigmatic about which life and whether the misconduct is continuing.
Vita piu lenta is lovely - it is certainly what I am aspiring to, though I am surprisingly busy for someone under quarantine.
Incidentally, I heard yesterday evening that my Italian aunt who did have the virus - or all the symptoms of it, she was not tested - has pulled through and is now fine, which was some joyous news last night. When I saw the call from an Italian number I feared the worst. But no. Phew!
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
You can't. Personally I know of 6 cases that won't have been counted and 1 that will now.
Comments
https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1248204011955724288?s=20
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1248209523828981761?s=20
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1248210782904553474?s=20
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
All the mobile home parks and camp sites are closed and eerily quiet, normally Easter would see the arrival of the "Trippers".
I am keeping to one bike ride a day, but making it a good long one, I have gone for out of the way places, usually around Bowland, where you never see anyone even in normal times.
But then I remember the whole chocolate controversy, and...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054502v1
...We found that an increase of only 1 μg/m3 in PM2.5 is associated with a 15% increase in the COVID-19 death rate, 95% confidence interval (CI) (5%, 25%). Results are statistically significant and robust to secondary and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis...
The amount of resources out there at the moment are incredible, and some brilliant content explaining some of the underlying concepts such as SIR modelling really well.
Surely the latter is a better measure of how much pressure the NHS is under.
And without that, the supposed flattening of the blue curve vanishes.
Lady of the Lakes.
Or bit more left field -
Winsome Witterings.
All that said, perhaps this particular spat tells us more about the limits of pan-EU solidarity than about the Euro.
As I've said many times before, in the same way I was a leave or all in voter (I didn't much agree with the half in/half out approach we had) I think the EMU needs to be an all or nothing club, this half in/half out approach just leads to crisis afte crisis and constant stagnation.
This Easter do not go and see your Granddad
Even young people who know they might not be particularly at risk of dieing know it's a pretty horrible illness to go through if you're even a moderate case and would like to see their parents (safely) again at some point.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204277/PIERS-MORGAN-wish-Boris-Johnson-Britains-coronavirus-strategy-disaster.html
Not in my day.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/09/bernies-legacy-hangs-in-the-balance-176515
...Sanders’ long-term reputation, however, will hinge even more on something he can’t dictate: What happens to the young activists whom he energized with his cranky manner and democratic socialist agenda?
George McGovern, another movement politician, was routed in his effort to become president in 1972 but people immersed in that campaign—from Gary Hart to Bill and Hillary Clinton—were dominant figures in American politics for the next 45 years.
“A lot will depend on what he does now,” Hart said in an interview from self-isolation in his mountainside home in Colorado.
He recommended that Sanders devote himself vigorously and with no sullenness to energizing young Democrats—who polls showed are among the least enthusiastic about Biden’s candidacy—to supporting the party’s nominee in the fall.
Hart, who in 1984 mobilized a younger generation of voters while losing the nomination, also urged Sanders to recognize that the coronavirus pandemic has changed politics in ways that render some ideological debates obsolete. Perhaps in January, the difference between Biden’s cautious progressivism and Sanders’ radical version was something worth arguing about. Now, Hart said, “The plague has changed everything.” With trillions being spent in what threatens to be this generation’s Great Depression, “Joe Biden may end up being Bernie Sanders squared just by circumstance....
Its a view.
Clearly we don't know how much of a data tail there will be for the most recent days, but there is a clear trend of a higher proportion of deaths being reported inside 2 or 3 days with the lag getting shorter. Hence there is far more of a growing trend in the daily headlines than actually appears when looking at the latest total for each day, where apart from the miracle on March 31st, the numbers are remarkably flat.
It's interesting that the originally smooth linguistic gradient across Tweed has become a discontinuity at the river, with Scots sounding much morte distinct from Northumbrians/Geordies, in recent decades. I wonder if there is anything like that at Severn or Dee?
Now that we have a technical subject on which thousands of lives are depending, the news media really need to step up their game. Very little sign of that so far, sadly.
What I don't understand, is that the senior management of the news networks must be watching their output and thinking it's good.
Sounds a bit Bideny.
I mention it because the title is very simple, to the point, is niche enough, but also incredibly identifiable (many unattached people in London), and has allowed her to grow.
I don't have a genius idea for yours, but perhaps this might help you think of one.
This means that the proportion of the population that needs to be infection or inoculated could be quite a bit less than generally believed, which is good news. Although using the death rate to estimate the proportion of the population who have already been affected, adjusted for lags, may be lead to an overestimate at this stage due to the high proportion of infections incurred in care homes and hospitals.
Still the weekend is here and I have arranged a virtual pub meet up for staff on Zoom for later.
Pizza with olives
Pizza with pineapple
The somewhat half-hearted construct of the common currency has indeed created some problems.
The major car-crash in Greece and minor ones in other countries were clearly induced by the GFC, though.
Italy has, in fact, seen decades of stagnation, but these are - to a large degree - down to Italian homemade structural problems. It would be overstating to blame the Italian situation entirely on the Euro.
Weird how this line doesn't match the other line.
Beware lines of graphs. Be-fucking-ware.
With the obvious exception of the giant racist jaffa orange, of course.
This Easter do not go and see your granddad.
You'd worry about him, I think. I'm guessing there must be more to it. A bit of, you know, context and preamble and follow up.
For April 7th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far announced came on the first day than was the case for April 6th
For April 6th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far came in the first 2 days than for April 5th
For April 5th, a higher proportion of the deaths so far came in the first 3 days than for April 4th
We'll have to see obviously, but it looks like they're getting better at reporting earlier. If that were the case it would produce a spike in the daily numbers even if the underlying trend was flat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgPj6e3jtz0
Talk about an unnecessary journey.
Code of Misconduct is brilliant! I may use that for something else I am writing. A Life of Misconduct appeals - it is enigmatic about which life and whether the misconduct is continuing.
Vita piu lenta is lovely - it is certainly what I am aspiring to, though I am surprisingly busy for someone under quarantine.
Incidentally, I heard yesterday evening that my Italian aunt who did have the virus - or all the symptoms of it, she was not tested - has pulled through and is now fine, which was some joyous news last night. When I saw the call from an Italian number I feared the worst. But no. Phew!
Maybe I should go for “Tutto andra bene”.
It looks to me as though we can expect something like 0.5%.
Mostly.
Well, thinking about it, as soon as they were left to their own devices they would be getting too close to each other as well.....
Teenagers, huh?
On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
The ONS deaths figures are here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and they don't agree with the chart either.
This chart is just wrong.
The other issue is a lack of EU demos among the general population (outside the political elites), as we have seen in the past few weeks when it's been every country for themselves. The only way the Euro remains stable is now for massive fiscal transfers and direct tax raising by the EU, before one or more member states crashes out of the Euro.
I think we're probably still plumbing the depths of the population's stupidity.
'Hortum in Bibliotheca'
As in Cicero, Ad Familiares IX.4, 'Si hortum in bibliotheca habes, deerit nihil' = 'If you have a garden in your library [i.e. a garden and a library], you shall want for nothing'.
Alternatively 'Hortus in Bibliotheca', if you'd like it to be a free-standing nominative phrase rather than a quotation.
Covers gardens, books, and Italy
Of course, the reactions to such things last longer than the thing, generally.