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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At what stage is lockdown going to crumble?
I don’t know about other Pbers but on my permitted daily exercise bike ride there has been a noticeable increase in road traffic with people going to parks ans other open spaces simply to get out of the house.
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Anyone who breaks the lockdown should be shot, welded in their house, and only be given Hawaiian pizzas and tap water for the rest of the lockdown.
The govt need to get out in front of this from Tuesday.
For a second offence, they should be launched from a trebuchet into the North Sea (or Channel, as geography dictates).
The third and final offence will see them embark upon an exciting new career as space cannon ammunition.
America have already moved along way from having to worry about the Saudia's for oil and countries moving away from Russia for gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk
Can be a flexible timetable which depends on clear measurable progress - but a vision is required soon.
No short-term visitors from anywhere in the world are able to enter Singapore......
From 23:59 on 9 April arrivals from anywhere in the world entering Singapore will be required to serve a 14 day period isolated in a hotel room or similar accommodation provided by the Singapore government. Whilst you are serving this period of 14 days isolation you will not be allowed to leave your room. The 14 day period cannot be reduced, even if you wish to leave Singapore. Failure to comply carries a fine and a jail term of up to six months.
As per existing regulations, arrivals from from the UK, US, France, Switzerland, India and ASEAN countries (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) are already subject to these restrictions....
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/singapore/coronavirus
- The whining press
- You
- Peter Hitchens
Every person I've spoken to this week expects it to last until at least the middle of May, and doesn't really mind.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.01105.pdf
They'll gradually start easing the restrictions week by week and I could see that beginning around the start of May with a full end by start of June.
Until either the population has largely all had it, or there is a vaccine, then we will need to continue to minimise transmission.
We have already proven that the only way to do that (and not have everyone think that they are the acceptable exception to the general advice) is to institute a more formal lockdown. The attempt to "discourage" contact and "encourage" handwashing was a total failure.
I agree, though, that it becomes more and more difficult to police as the number of deaths decreases. So we are probably, and regrettably, in for a yo-yoing between increasing liberty and lagging but increasing numbers of admissions and deaths, followed by more formal lockdown again, that will greatly increase the overall death toll.
Mid June at least for bars, restaurants, hotels and big shops and everything else to be lifted.
Just a feeling.
The government needs to give thought to what can be done to help bootstrap the SME sector which is the backbone of the UK economy, and what shape that will take. To be effective, it won't be pretend "cash" - it probably needs to be structural.
Mr. Adams, I agree that the foolishly impatient, egged on by the more reckless and cretinous members of the press, will find it difficult to stick with the concept that fighting a pandemic might take some time. We must hope the vast majority have rather better self-discipline, and that those of limited means are assisted by friends, family, volunteers, and, where necessary, the state.
Edit - as mentioned, we don't have the other nations included in there.
The lockdown isn't just about slowing transmission, important though that is. Its also about buying time to get the ventilators ready and available, the Nightingale Hospitals ready and available, the PPE ready and available etc
Once all that's readily available the cost of lockdown won't be worth it forever.
We are giving that a self induced heart attack. Its not a reset button
And we may take some steps back towards tighter lockdown partway through the process.
- The whining press
- You
- Peter Hitchens
Etc.
You may be in a bubble.
Rather like notions of austerity, our version of lockdown looks tame compared with what other countries have enforced. It's probably as much as Government thought acceptable but there are no resources to enforce anything tougher and public transport hasn't shut down completely as it has in other countries.
I've struggled for days with trying to work out how we end lock down. Once we try to re-start, social distancing is bound to be compromised so if the virus is still around it will likely flare up again.
On a personal level, my brother has had the virus and even three and a half weeks later, he is struggling to keep his temperature down and requires regular paracetamol. I don't want this and to be honest I'd rather be alive than worry about whether GDP has shrunk by 6% or 25%.
I also think the more convincingly this virus can be beaten down the harder it will be for it to re-ignite. Ideally we'd have no cases for a week but that's probably not practical.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/police-force-closed-600-parties-including-djs-fireworks-bouncy/
A police force has revealed it has had to close down more than 600 parties during the coronavirus lockdown, including some with bouncy castles, fireworks and DJs.
Between March 25 and Apr 7 there were 1,132 incidents reported to Greater Manchester Police across the city.
These included 494 house parties, 166 street parties, 122 group gatherings for sporting activities, 173 gatherings in parks and 112 incidents of anti-social behaviour.
"Does not really mind " what planet is he on.
Let's hope that slight decline doesn't make people complacent going into the weekend.
What will happen later in the weekend I know not.
These people have been effectively silenced by the Corona obsessed media
If it gets to the point where we run out of money, or need to impose grinding austerity because of enormous debt, it may cost many thousands their lives.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1248241034695499777?s=20
Of course the population of the US was a little over a third of what it is today - but still very striking numbers.
"Another 887 people have died after contracting coronavirus, taking the UK death toll to at least 7,984. Today’s jump in deaths is one of the biggest daily increases since the outbreak began, following a massive rise of 938 yesterday and 854 on Tuesday."
We've been through this cycle before - the decline of manufacturing industry led to wholesale job losses and business failures and communities transformed but new business and entrepreneurs emerged, new skills were developed and taught.
The end of mining is another salutary example of how communities can adapt to massive economic change.
Throughout history, events (predictable or otherwise) have challenged human ingenuity and adaptation - this will be no different. Much will go on as before but some aspects of life, as you say, won't be the same. We may value some things more and realise that other things we previously held in esteem weren't deserving of that.
The truth is I'd rather be alive and take my chances in the new world than be buried in the ruins of the old. Perhaps, more than anything else, we'll all value life a bit more and be able to talk about death a bit more too.
At which point many people will blame others. And even those who blame themselves will be unable to undo their past decisions.
That's why it's important we all do our best to manage our own behaviour. To coin a phrase, we're all in this together.
Its the first proper rest I've had for 5 years, for example. I'm cooking fresh food and eating much better.
I am not finding it tough at all (although harder self isolating away from home this week). But I definitely wouldn't fancy doing it in a one / two bed flat in a tower block for 3 months, especially if I had kids.
I’m in the fortunate position of being able to bear even a stringent lockdown for a long period without too much difficulty. Others are not so lucky.
Until the curve has flattened though the lockdown must stay
https://symptomate.com/covid19/checkup/en/#0-99990
In Britain it will happen to the next generation as they try to cope with a gargantuan mountain of debt and a neutered economy that we have landed them with
The west can't afford these lockdowns much longer.
Incidentally, do you consider this a stringent lockdown? I really don't, compared to other European countries, and especially elsewhere. I just spoke to a friend in Uganda, where they have a 7pm-7am curfew, no cars allowed on the roads etc etc.
However the worry for millions of losing jobs and business will be huge.
https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Area/coronavirus-research
A further 765 patients have died in hospital in England, up from 6,483 the day before. This brings the total to 7,248.
Of the 765 new hospital deaths announced today by NHS England, 140 occurred on April 8 while 568 took place between April 1 and April 7.
The remaining 57 deaths occurred in March, including two on March 19 and one on March 16.
My OH is a key worker, but mercifully can work from home.
I have a business and expect to lose 100-200k in sales (depending on whether 2 or 4 months till back to normal) for my business, with little opportunity to reduce costs more than say 30%. I ought to survive, as I have a strong, good margin business. Others in the same trade will be similarly struggling. One lesson that I learned early on (after weeks of sleepless nights) was to have a cash buffer. It is a lifesaver at the moment.
Thousands of businesses are going to go to the wall permanently by the end of April. unemployment is going to explode, having goodness knows what effects on the millions holed up in tiny flats in our country.
In the end, its an enormous judgement call that takes a real leader to make. The only answer for me is to restart the economy now and use the money the build up NHS corona capacity more and faster.
https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-04-05-trouble-in-testing-land
London NW3 - still the Marie Celeste.
https://twitter.com/muttonshunter/status/1248155012481548293?s=20
Without doing a blow by blow of how the decision will be assessed and made, general points on what things would need to look like to do so will probably help sell it.
Without these, we realistically aren't going anywhere fast.
Last year I had a stem cell transplant for myeloma in Leeds.
Which has put me into remission.
Very lucky it was last year and not this.
Yes, there's a cost to the lockdown. But it's ironic seeing some people go all Project Fear about it.
It also means they can send their children to school or nursery again, something many NHS workers must be worried about.
That will have to be serviced.