How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
Another plot that only goes up to the 27th of March. Remind me what the date is today again. The reason he managed it is that he's got an agenda to push.
Why would he have an agenda to push? The ONS data only goes up to 27th March I think. That’s a good enough reason to stop it there for me
I don't know why he would have one, but he clearly does. The plots we see are all showing that things are normal, or not as bad as people are saying. Easy to do when your data is vastly out of date.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
I got the (expletive deleted) bus alone, let alone walked. Admittedly with three or four other five and six year olds. And the bus never went off the Island where I lived. That was 76 years ago when I was 5.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?
My impression was everyone was now assuming Boris Johnson was fine, despite his still being on oxygen after four days in hospital.
It's extraordinary how Spiked / Living Marxism is now almost an official propaganda arm, since Brexit.
I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
Once the daily death totals start dropping the pressure to lift the lockdown will be immense.
The govt need to get out in front of this from Tuesday.
My prediction: the lockdown will last 6 weeks in total. We're almost half-way through.
I've always thought it will be a six-week lockdown in total as soon as they announced the first three weeks.
They will extend for another three weeks in the coming days, but people are not going to tolerate a second extension after that. Discipline would start to break down, as it may be doing so already. This is why you don't go too early - if the media had their way, we'd already be 4-5 weeks in lockdown with the rest of April still to go.
The first extension will take us to 5th May - a new month, hopefully the mortalily rate will be moving in the right direction by then, and a phased return to normalcy will commence.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
You can't. Personally I know of 6 cases that won't have been counted and 1 that will now.
There are some studies out there making some best guesses. 83 is likely to be an estimate based on surveys.then there's the Icelandic data, which is pretty useful. It'll be at least order-of-magnitude correct.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.
Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
Do you think it would re-solidify if daily deaths went up to 2000? 3000?
I think we're probably still plumbing the depths of the population's stupidity.
I have had the sense today that there is a lot more traffic on the main road near my place. I haven't been out, but I have heard that the local supermarket had huge queues - pre-bank holiday stockpiling?
Still did in mine in the early 90s, but parents practically pass out at the thought now and youd probably get in trouble.
I was in primary school in the late 80s and my mum walked us to school. Even if I was playing outside unsupervised I wasn't permitted to walk across the busy road the school was on by myself until I was 10.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.
You're having a joke, right?
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
How can ICM produce an opinion poll when they have not consulted every voter?
I had to clarify the meaning of the data so I went to the source.
The headline daily hospital Covid deaths are deaths CONFIRMED during the previous 24 hours and the death may have occurred in any previous 24 hour interval.
"Note: interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death, particularly for recent prior days, are likely to be updated in future releases. For example as deaths are confirmed as testing positive for Covid-19, as more post-mortem tests are processed and data from them are validated. Any changes are made clear in the daily files."
The increases applied in each spreadsheet revision naturally reduce the further back in time from the present. Taking today's increases: today +140 -1 day + 284 -2 days + 100 -3 days + 57 -4 days + 47 and so on.
After -5 days or so only small revisions occur. The daily figure is a strange lagging metric with the greatest proportion of a day's deaths being reported one to three days after they occur (based on today's spreadsheet).
Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
Do you think it would re-solidify if daily deaths went up to 2000? 3000?
I think we're probably still plumbing the depths of the population's stupidity.
I have had the sense today that there is a lot more traffic on the main road near my place. I haven't been out, but I have heard that the local supermarket had huge queues - pre-bank holiday stockpiling?
Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
Do you think it would re-solidify if daily deaths went up to 2000? 3000?
I think we're probably still plumbing the depths of the population's stupidity.
I have had the sense today that there is a lot more traffic on the main road near my place. I haven't been out, but I have heard that the local supermarket had huge queues - pre-bank holiday stockpiling?
Getting stuff in for picnics quite possibly.
My other half went to the supermarket today deliberately to avoid having to do so over the 4-day holiday, as it will surely be busier then. We're avoiding shopping at weekends as that's still when things are busiest. Might explain it being a bit busier today.
"EU Corona-bonds look dead in the water"...its the problem when you have so many nations with completely different economies, debt levels, etc.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKJqOtwu-9o
Massive problems here for the Euro. They're either going to have to agree something that looks like a fiscal union (with direct EU taxes) or the single currency is in serious trouble. Printing money was the easy option and they're not taking it.
"48 seconds to save the Euro!"..."47"..."46"..."45"...
Tbh, this is exactly the kind of crisis that can once and for all fix the problems the Euro has. The worry is that the people won't agree and decide to leave the relative safety of the EMU for the wild rapids of the open market making everything much worse.
As I've said many times before, in the same way I was a leave or all in voter (I didn't much agree with the half in/half out approach we had) I think the EMU needs to be an all or nothing club, this half in/half out approach just leads to crisis afte crisis and constant stagnation.
I think it's likely that the crisis and its consequences may change the structures of the Eurozone to some extent, but I'm not sure that will fix all of the problems, hopefully some of them.
The somewhat half-hearted construct of the common currency has indeed created some problems. The major car-crash in Greece and minor ones in other countries were clearly induced by the GFC, though. Italy has, in fact, seen decades of stagnation, but these are - to a large degree - down to Italian homemade structural problems. It would be overstating to blame the Italian situation entirely on the Euro.
The issues of Italy and Greece should have been resolved way back in 1999-2001, but it was politically expedient at the time to ignore the fact that their numbers weren't even close to adding up.
The other issue is a lack of EU demos among the general population (outside the political elites), as we have seen in the past few weeks when it's been every country for themselves. The only way the Euro remains stable is now for massive fiscal transfers and direct tax raising by the EU, before one or more member states crashes out of the Euro.
Their issues should have been resolved in the early-mid nineties. Integrating Greece and Italy must be seen in the context of winning the approval from France and other countries for the reunification of the two Germanies in principle, and within the confines of the EU in particular. Beyond that, it certainly wasn't politically expedient in Germany, or uncontroversial.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.
You're having a joke, right?
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.
My impression was everyone was now assuming Boris Johnson was fine, despite his still being on oxygen after four days in hospital.
It's extraordinary how Spiked / Living Marxism is now almost an official propaganda arm, since Brexit.
I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
Seeing as they take funding from the far right in America (and who knows what from other dodgy sources) they will no doubt turn against this government soon for being a bunch of soft centrists.
Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
The government was right to be concerned about not starting the lockdown too early.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
How can ICM produce an opinion poll when they have not consulted every voter?
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.
You're having a joke, right?
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.
Yes, I don't disagree with you. I was just cheekily suggesting that there was actually counting involved.
Still did in mine in the early 90s, but parents practically pass out at the thought now and youd probably get in trouble.
I was in primary school in the late 80s and my mum walked us to school. Even if I was playing outside unsupervised I wasn't permitted to walk across the busy road the school was on by myself until I was 10.
In the early 80s I walked (through a quiet estate) to school from the age of 7. Nowadays, schools expect parents to drop off and pick up through to at least 10 - in practice, they can't police drop off, but won't release children at pick up unless there is a parent there.
Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
The government was right to be concerned about not starting the lockdown too early.
Indeed imagine that, the experts knew what they were talking about.
Did you see the "Criticising Hungary for Making Orban a Dictator is Actually Anti-Hungarian Racism" from a week or so back? Probably Peak Spiked.
Until now.
Not just Spiked, in fairness. During Scottish indyref1 the Tories started claiming that for pro-independence Scots to criticise Tories was per se anti-English racism. Almost certainly it was November 2013: the matter startled me so kmuch that it stuck in my memory, because of the howlingly obvious conclusion which it invited the listener to draw. I wasn't surprised when they shut down that attack line almost instantly.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.
You're having a joke, right?
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.
Yes, I don't disagree with you. I was just cheekily suggesting that there was actually counting involved.
My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.
You're having a joke, right?
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.
Yes, I don't disagree with you. I was just cheekily suggesting that there was actually counting involved.
Oh. Right.
Sorry, I thought the smiley would have been sufficient to convey that!
My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.
Yes - we need to get the numbers of active cases down to a few per cent of what they are now. Getting a week or something past the peak is no use at all.
My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.
On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.
Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.
You're having a joke, right?
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.
Yes, I don't disagree with you. I was just cheekily suggesting that there was actually counting involved.
Oh. Right.
Sorry, I thought the smiley would have been sufficient to convey that!
No - sorry, it made no sense at all to me, because the whole point I was making was that they hadn't counted the number we were talking about, but had counted other numbers and made an estimate on that basis.
It just seemed like you'd missed the point entirely.
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.
Another plot that only goes up to the 27th of March. Remind me what the date is today again. The reason he managed it is that he's got an agenda to push.
Why would he have an agenda to push? The ONS data only goes up to 27th March I think. That’s a good enough reason to stop it there for me
I don't know why he would have one, but he clearly does. The plots we see are all showing that things are normal, or not as bad as people are saying. Easy to do when your data is vastly out of date.
As I said to Alistair, if it bothers you that much, you don’t have to use me as a go between, the bloke is on Twitter, speak to him
I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
"Brendan O’Neill self identifies as a Marxist libertarian."
Just seen this. Really surprised by it. Wonder if he's taking the piss.
My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.
May be advisable for everyone to speak of "relaxing the lockdown" instead of "ending the lockdown". The latter may reinforce the incorrect binary view of some people that everything will be going from 1 to 0 and then back to 1 again.
Did you see the "Criticising Hungary for Making Orban a Dictator is Actually Anti-Hungarian Racism" from a week or so back? Probably Peak Spiked.
Until now.
It must be difficult not knowing whether to mourn the fall of the Berlin Wall or mine the English Channel.
So, to sum up -
1) A phrase was used 2) This triggered some people 3) The triggering triggered some other people 4) The triggering by triggering triggered some other people 5) The triggering by triggering by triggering... triggered someone
On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.
Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.
If you are offended by my swearing please stop posting graphs filled with bogus data and even more bogus 'trend'* lines
* Where trend line means he's hit Up on the Polynomial button enough times to get the shape of curve he wants.
I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
"Brendan O’Neill self identifies as a Marxist libertarian."
Just seen this. Really surprised by it. Wonder if he's taking the piss.
Completely mad and ahistorical philosophy. Furedi is the man behind the thinking, and it all goes back to the late 70's.
New label still on the graph if there was any doubt. Total hospital occupancy 2% up nationally and really pretty flat in most places
Yeah - that's probably the most useful guide to the state of what's going on. When that starts to drop (hopefully early next week) we can see that things are getting more under control.
My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.
May be advisable for everyone to speak of "relaxing the lockdown" instead of "ending the lockdown".
Agreed, that's why I wrote "start the wind-down" to imply that it will be a gradual thing.
Sam Coates going down the pointless "when will you......" route today.
And, yes, he gets the same answer as previous days. People normally learn from their mistakes and don't make them again, so why do the journalists not learn from theirs? I can only conclude that they think the public love them wasting questions every day.
How the f*** could it go sky high, when they are doing so few tests? It's only a few per cent of the true figure. Meaningless.
If more tests result in fewer cases, then it must be positive.
I don't know how many people were tested in the last day, but I looked yesterday and the new cases in the last two days were almost exactly 40% of the number of people tested. And almost exactly the same for the past week. The number of new cases is just reflecting how many people have been tested, with some fluctuation in the percentage of positive tests, but not much.
Sam Coates going down the pointless "when will you......" route today.
And, yes, he gets the same answer as previous days. People normally learn from their mistakes and don't make them again, so why do the journalists not learn from theirs? I can only conclude that they think the public love them wasting questions every day.
Is he being paid to provide soft balls?
This is starting to remind me of England technique vs the West Indies in the 80s - slow medium pace bowling, and then shocked surprise as Viv Richards makes another 6.
Is Raab really going to commit to an NHS pay increase right now? Utterly vacuous questions from these feckless buffoons.
Agreed, mind numbing question. Handled smoothly by Raab though, looking and sounding the part. His stock will have risen by the end of this if he can keep it up.
I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
"Brendan O’Neill self identifies as a Marxist libertarian."
Just seen this. Really surprised by it. Wonder if he's taking the piss.
No, I don't mind him. He's never been in my chamber of horrors with the likes of Patel and Mogg. Wouldn't say I've quite become a fan but he's doing a job here and I appreciate the lack of pyrotechnics.
Is Raab really going to commit to an NHS pay increase right now? Utterly vacuous questions from these feckless buffoons.
Agreed, mind numbing question. Handled smoothly by Raab though, looking and sounding the part. His stock will have risen by the end of this if he can keep it up.
It reminds me of playing tennis with my 7 year old daughter. First I signal with exaggerated movements exactly what I am going to do. Then I hit the ball very very very slowly. Then I applaud when she hits it back...
Yes, very bright chap, quietly impressive. About time he got some credit. Does come over a tad robotic though, I can see that, but maybe less so lately?
Iain Dale interviewed all the Tory leadership hopefuls last summer (except Boris) and Raab was by far the most impressive I thought.
Given the lousy PPE equipment or rather the lack of it that they're required to wear into battle, it's more like fighting against the odds in Boulton Paul Defiants or even Fairey Battles.
This is truly shocking given the absence of planning that it evidences:
The most successful mission for the Boulton Paul Defiant was on 29 May 1940, "when No. 264 Squadron claimed 37 kills in two sorties: 19 Ju 87 Stukas, mostly picked off as they came out of their dives, nine Messerschmitt Bf 110 twin-engined heavy fighters, eight Bf 109s and a Ju-88; one Defiant gunner was lost after he bailed out, although the aircraft made it back to its base to be repaired."
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?
I don`t know the answer, but I stuck my finger in the air and suggested that maybe 20 unrecorded for eveyr 1 recorded, and someone posted back that scientists say 83. Seems high to me but must be extrapolating from something I guess. Great news if true.
I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
"Brendan O’Neill self identifies as a Marxist libertarian."
Just seen this. Really surprised by it. Wonder if he's taking the piss.
I thought left libertarians self-identified as Anarchists?
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?
I don`t know the answer, but I stuck my finger in the air and suggested that maybe 20 unrecorded for eveyr 1 recorded, and someone posted back that scientists say 83. Seems high to me but must be extrapolating from something I guess. Great news if true.
I think Sir Patrick Vallance has just more or less said they don't know in answer to the last question.
On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.
Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.
If you are offended by my swearing please stop posting graphs filled with bogus data and even more bogus 'trend'* lines
* Where trend line means he's hit Up on the Polynomial button enough times to get the shape of curve he wants.
I’m not offended, I’m embarrassed for you
I’ll post whatever I like, and if you have a problem with the content, the person who made it is so easily contactable it makes me wonder why you haven’t already done so.
The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?
My brain hurts!
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?
Yes - we need to get the numbers of active cases down to a few per cent of what they are now. Getting a week or something past the peak is no use at all.
I think that's right. If we had precise control of the situation, if we do THIS then hospital admissions will do THAT, it would perhaps be possible to get cute about things, hold the clutch on the biting point, but since the modelling does not have a high level of confidence, and we are talking about people's lives, it will be necessary to squash the virus right down so as to create a large buffer zone as against NHS capacity before we relax the lockdown. In 9 weeks, for me.
Comments
My brain hurts!
That was 76 years ago when I was 5.
They will extend for another three weeks in the coming days, but people are not going to tolerate a second extension after that. Discipline would start to break down, as it may be doing so already. This is why you don't go too early - if the media had their way, we'd already be 4-5 weeks in lockdown with the rest of April still to go.
The first extension will take us to 5th May - a new month, hopefully the mortalily rate will be moving in the right direction by then, and a phased return to normalcy will commence.
You're having a joke, right?
This is beyond oh maybe a bit of a mistake validating some data, it's absolute deliberate bullshit pushing an agenda.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2018/03/13/the-jingoistic-fear-of-russia-is-out-of-control/
Until now.
The headline daily hospital Covid deaths are deaths CONFIRMED during the previous 24 hours and the death may have occurred in any previous 24 hour interval.
These are the spreadsheets (English data)
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
"Note: interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death, particularly for recent prior days, are likely to be updated in future releases. For example as deaths are confirmed as testing positive for Covid-19, as more post-mortem tests are processed and data from them are validated. Any changes are made clear in the daily files."
The increases applied in each spreadsheet revision naturally reduce the further back in time from the present. Taking today's increases:
today +140
-1 day + 284
-2 days + 100
-3 days + 57
-4 days + 47
and so on.
After -5 days or so only small revisions occur. The daily figure is a strange lagging metric with the greatest proportion of a day's deaths being reported one to three days after they occur (based on today's spreadsheet).
Integrating Greece and Italy must be seen in the context of winning the approval from France and other countries for the reunification of the two Germanies in principle, and within the confines of the EU in particular. Beyond that, it certainly wasn't politically expedient in Germany, or uncontroversial.
He's quietly calm and authoritative.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.
It just seemed like you'd missed the point entirely.
Just seen this. Really surprised by it. Wonder if he's taking the piss.
Thanks.
Slow down in increase in hospital and ICU admissions
The latter may reinforce the incorrect binary view of some people that everything will be going from 1 to 0 and then back to 1 again.
1) A phrase was used
2) This triggered some people
3) The triggering triggered some other people
4) The triggering by triggering triggered some other people
5) The triggering by triggering by triggering... triggered someone
Can we talk about something important? OK...
Which tonic works best with Pollination Gin?
* Where trend line means he's hit Up on the Polynomial button enough times to get the shape of curve he wants.
And, yes, he gets the same answer as previous days. People normally learn from their mistakes and don't make them again, so why do the journalists not learn from theirs? I can only conclude that they think the public love them wasting questions every day.
This is starting to remind me of England technique vs the West Indies in the 80s - slow medium pace bowling, and then shocked surprise as Viv Richards makes another 6.
Active cases : 96.877 (+1.615) including 3.605 (-88) in ICU
Deaths: 18.279 (+610)
Healed/discharged: 28.470 (+1.979)
Total cases: 143.626 (+4.204)
A bit worse than yesterday. Led by Lombardia providing worse numbers (with more tests though).
Iain Dale interviewed all the Tory leadership hopefuls last summer (except Boris) and Raab was by far the most impressive I thought.
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?
Yes, he is doing well today.
More stupid questions about when the lockdown will end.
"UK must learn from German response to Covid-19, says Whitty."
I’ll post whatever I like, and if you have a problem with the content, the person who made it is so easily contactable it makes me wonder why you haven’t already done so.
That one?