politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At what stage is lockdown going to crumble?
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I don't know why he would have one, but he clearly does. The plots we see are all showing that things are normal, or not as bad as people are saying. Easy to do when your data is vastly out of date.isam said:
Why would he have an agenda to push? The ONS data only goes up to 27th March I think. That’s a good enough reason to stop it there for meRobD said:
Another plot that only goes up to the 27th of March. Remind me what the date is today again. The reason he managed it is that he's got an agenda to push.Alistair said:
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?isam said:
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.0 -
Strange how in Brendan's world 'wokeness' is now akin to being insufficiently deferential to politicians. Is he mistaking it for non-feudal?TGOHF666 said:2 -
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!0 -
I got the (expletive deleted) bus alone, let alone walked. Admittedly with three or four other five and six year olds. And the bus never went off the Island where I lived.Philip_Thompson said:
That was 76 years ago when I was 5.2 -
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
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I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.WhisperingOracle said:1 -
I've always thought it will be a six-week lockdown in total as soon as they announced the first three weeks.Andy_JS said:
My prediction: the lockdown will last 6 weeks in total. We're almost half-way through.TGOHF666 said:Once the daily death totals start dropping the pressure to lift the lockdown will be immense.
The govt need to get out in front of this from Tuesday.
They will extend for another three weeks in the coming days, but people are not going to tolerate a second extension after that. Discipline would start to break down, as it may be doing so already. This is why you don't go too early - if the media had their way, we'd already be 4-5 weeks in lockdown with the rest of April still to go.
The first extension will take us to 5th May - a new month, hopefully the mortalily rate will be moving in the right direction by then, and a phased return to normalcy will commence.0 -
Anyone remember the good old days when the Spiked crew were hyper protective of Milošević, Mladić and Karadžić? Happy, innocent times.TGOHF666 said:0 -
There are some studies out there making some best guesses. 83 is likely to be an estimate based on surveys.then there's the Icelandic data, which is pretty useful. It'll be at least order-of-magnitude correct.Pulpstar said:
You can't. Personally I know of 6 cases that won't have been counted and 1 that will now.Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
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Bit narked about bogus numbers being shared about.isam said:0 -
Good grief. What snowflakes!TGOHF666 said:0 -
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.RobD said:
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
You're having a joke, right?0 -
Fuck me, just noticed the red line on the chart actually goes fucking negative, it's hidden by the crop.
This is beyond oh maybe a bit of a mistake validating some data, it's absolute deliberate bullshit pushing an agenda.0 -
I have had the sense today that there is a lot more traffic on the main road near my place. I haven't been out, but I have heard that the local supermarket had huge queues - pre-bank holiday stockpiling?Chris said:
Do you think it would re-solidify if daily deaths went up to 2000? 3000?Jonathan said:Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
I think we're probably still plumbing the depths of the population's stupidity.0 -
The old magic hasn't yet deserted him. Brendan can still rip the West a new one for Vlad:Theuniondivvie said:
Anyone remember the good old days when the Spiked crew were hyper protective of Milošević, Mladić and Karadžić? Happy, innocent times.TGOHF666 said:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2018/03/13/the-jingoistic-fear-of-russia-is-out-of-control/0 -
I was in primary school in the late 80s and my mum walked us to school. Even if I was playing outside unsupervised I wasn't permitted to walk across the busy road the school was on by myself until I was 10.kle4 said:
Still did in mine in the early 90s, but parents practically pass out at the thought now and youd probably get in trouble.Philip_Thompson said:0 -
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.Chris said:
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.RobD said:
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
You're having a joke, right?0 -
How can ICM produce an opinion poll when they have not consulted every voter?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!1 -
Did you see the "Criticising Hungary for Making Orban a Dictator is Actually Anti-Hungarian Racism" from a week or so back? Probably Peak Spiked.AlastairMeeks said:
Good grief. What snowflakes!TGOHF666 said:
Until now.1 -
I had to clarify the meaning of the data so I went to the source.
The headline daily hospital Covid deaths are deaths CONFIRMED during the previous 24 hours and the death may have occurred in any previous 24 hour interval.
These are the spreadsheets (English data)
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
"Note: interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death, particularly for recent prior days, are likely to be updated in future releases. For example as deaths are confirmed as testing positive for Covid-19, as more post-mortem tests are processed and data from them are validated. Any changes are made clear in the daily files."
The increases applied in each spreadsheet revision naturally reduce the further back in time from the present. Taking today's increases:
today +140
-1 day + 284
-2 days + 100
-3 days + 57
-4 days + 47
and so on.
After -5 days or so only small revisions occur. The daily figure is a strange lagging metric with the greatest proportion of a day's deaths being reported one to three days after they occur (based on today's spreadsheet).0 -
Getting stuff in for picnics quite possibly.rottenborough said:
I have had the sense today that there is a lot more traffic on the main road near my place. I haven't been out, but I have heard that the local supermarket had huge queues - pre-bank holiday stockpiling?Chris said:
Do you think it would re-solidify if daily deaths went up to 2000? 3000?Jonathan said:Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
I think we're probably still plumbing the depths of the population's stupidity.0 -
My other half went to the supermarket today deliberately to avoid having to do so over the 4-day holiday, as it will surely be busier then. We're avoiding shopping at weekends as that's still when things are busiest. Might explain it being a bit busier today.Chris said:
Getting stuff in for picnics quite possibly.rottenborough said:
I have had the sense today that there is a lot more traffic on the main road near my place. I haven't been out, but I have heard that the local supermarket had huge queues - pre-bank holiday stockpiling?Chris said:
Do you think it would re-solidify if daily deaths went up to 2000? 3000?Jonathan said:Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
I think we're probably still plumbing the depths of the population's stupidity.0 -
It must be difficult not knowing whether to mourn the fall of the Berlin Wall or mine the English Channel.Alistair said:
Did you see the "Criticising Hungary for Making Orban a Dictator is Actually Anti-Hungarian Racism" from a week or so back? Probably Peak Spiked.AlastairMeeks said:
Good grief. What snowflakes!TGOHF666 said:
Until now.0 -
Their issues should have been resolved in the early-mid nineties.Sandpit said:
The issues of Italy and Greece should have been resolved way back in 1999-2001, but it was politically expedient at the time to ignore the fact that their numbers weren't even close to adding up.matthiasfromhamburg said:
I think it's likely that the crisis and its consequences may change the structures of the Eurozone to some extent, but I'm not sure that will fix all of the problems, hopefully some of them.MaxPB said:
Tbh, this is exactly the kind of crisis that can once and for all fix the problems the Euro has. The worry is that the people won't agree and decide to leave the relative safety of the EMU for the wild rapids of the open market making everything much worse.matthiasfromhamburg said:
"48 seconds to save the Euro!"..."47"..."46"..."45"...Sandpit said:
Massive problems here for the Euro. They're either going to have to agree something that looks like a fiscal union (with direct EU taxes) or the single currency is in serious trouble. Printing money was the easy option and they're not taking it.FrancisUrquhart said:"EU Corona-bonds look dead in the water"...its the problem when you have so many nations with completely different economies, debt levels, etc.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKJqOtwu-9o
As I've said many times before, in the same way I was a leave or all in voter (I didn't much agree with the half in/half out approach we had) I think the EMU needs to be an all or nothing club, this half in/half out approach just leads to crisis afte crisis and constant stagnation.
The somewhat half-hearted construct of the common currency has indeed created some problems.
The major car-crash in Greece and minor ones in other countries were clearly induced by the GFC, though.
Italy has, in fact, seen decades of stagnation, but these are - to a large degree - down to Italian homemade structural problems. It would be overstating to blame the Italian situation entirely on the Euro.
The other issue is a lack of EU demos among the general population (outside the political elites), as we have seen in the past few weeks when it's been every country for themselves. The only way the Euro remains stable is now for massive fiscal transfers and direct tax raising by the EU, before one or more member states crashes out of the Euro.
Integrating Greece and Italy must be seen in the context of winning the approval from France and other countries for the reunification of the two Germanies in principle, and within the confines of the EU in particular. Beyond that, it certainly wasn't politically expedient in Germany, or uncontroversial.0 -
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.RobD said:
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.Chris said:
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.RobD said:
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
You're having a joke, right?0 -
Just the tubes left then?IanB2 said:
They were critically low on bog roll.Benpointer said:
Essential supplies?SandyRentool said:Seriously, they've just launched a rocket to the space station.
Talk about an unnecessary journey.0 -
Seeing as they take funding from the far right in America (and who knows what from other dodgy sources) they will no doubt turn against this government soon for being a bunch of soft centrists.guybrush said:
I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.WhisperingOracle said:0 -
The government was right to be concerned about not starting the lockdown too early.Jonathan said:Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
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Well, exactly!eristdoof said:
How can ICM produce an opinion poll when they have not consulted every voter?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!0 -
Yes, I don't disagree with you. I was just cheekily suggesting that there was actually counting involved.Chris said:
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.RobD said:
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.Chris said:
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.RobD said:
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
You're having a joke, right?0 -
Raab just gave wrong test numbers unless we have done minus 40000 today0
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In the early 80s I walked (through a quiet estate) to school from the age of 7. Nowadays, schools expect parents to drop off and pick up through to at least 10 - in practice, they can't police drop off, but won't release children at pick up unless there is a parent there.Philip_Thompson said:
I was in primary school in the late 80s and my mum walked us to school. Even if I was playing outside unsupervised I wasn't permitted to walk across the busy road the school was on by myself until I was 10.kle4 said:
Still did in mine in the early 90s, but parents practically pass out at the thought now and youd probably get in trouble.Philip_Thompson said:0 -
Indeed imagine that, the experts knew what they were talking about.Andy_JS said:
The government was right to be concerned about not starting the lockdown too early.Jonathan said:Anecdata. The lockdown is beginning to melt round here. More people are out and about. There is more traffic. And (annoyingly) people are starting to show up on my doorstep just passing.
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Tests vs people?bigjohnowls said:Raab just gave wrong test numbers unless we have done minus 40000 today
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I'm not a fan of Dominic Raab but I am now.
He's quietly calm and authoritative.0 -
We do need to poke around up there for places to live. Assuming no vaccine and malevolent mutation.SandyRentool said:Seriously, they've just launched a rocket to the space station.
Talk about an unnecessary journey.0 -
Not just Spiked, in fairness. During Scottish indyref1 the Tories started claiming that for pro-independence Scots to criticise Tories was per se anti-English racism. Almost certainly it was November 2013: the matter startled me so kmuch that it stuck in my memory, because of the howlingly obvious conclusion which it invited the listener to draw. I wasn't surprised when they shut down that attack line almost instantly.Alistair said:
Did you see the "Criticising Hungary for Making Orban a Dictator is Actually Anti-Hungarian Racism" from a week or so back? Probably Peak Spiked.AlastairMeeks said:
Good grief. What snowflakes!TGOHF666 said:
Until now.0 -
Oh. Right.RobD said:
Yes, I don't disagree with you. I was just cheekily suggesting that there was actually counting involved.Chris said:
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.RobD said:
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.Chris said:
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.RobD said:
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
You're having a joke, right?0 -
My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.3 -
Oh no let's not go down that route again!!!!RobD said:
Tests vs people?bigjohnowls said:Raab just gave wrong test numbers unless we have done minus 40000 today
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Sorry, I thought the smiley would have been sufficient to convey that!Chris said:
Oh. Right.RobD said:
Yes, I don't disagree with you. I was just cheekily suggesting that there was actually counting involved.Chris said:
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.RobD said:
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.Chris said:
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.RobD said:
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
You're having a joke, right?0 -
Yes - we need to get the numbers of active cases down to a few per cent of what they are now. Getting a week or something past the peak is no use at all.eristdoof said:My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.0 -
They release both numbers, so you could check against yesterday's number.bigjohnowls said:
Oh no let's not go down that route again!!!!RobD said:
Tests vs people?bigjohnowls said:Raab just gave wrong test numbers unless we have done minus 40000 today
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I'm sticking with my 6 week lockdown prediction.eristdoof said:My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.0 -
Good delivery. Will the incumbent PM be watching? Will he be worrying?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not a fan of Dominic Raab but I am now.
He's quietly calm and authoritative.0 -
Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.Alistair said:
Sorry, this chart is really fucking bothering me.isam said:
On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
The ONS deaths figures are here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and they don't agree with the chart either.
This chart is just wrong.0 -
And blaring Radiohead through loudspeakers.Andrew said:
Need the full biohazard response team for that surely.Malmesbury said:No - armed police will enforce pineapple on pizza.
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New label still on the graph if there was any doubt. Total hospital occupancy 2% up nationally and really pretty flat in most places0
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No - sorry, it made no sense at all to me, because the whole point I was making was that they hadn't counted the number we were talking about, but had counted other numbers and made an estimate on that basis.RobD said:
Sorry, I thought the smiley would have been sufficient to convey that!Chris said:
Oh. Right.RobD said:
Yes, I don't disagree with you. I was just cheekily suggesting that there was actually counting involved.Chris said:
Yes, it's an estimate based on other data. They didn't actually count the number that they were estimating. Otherwise they wouldn't have had to estimate it. Jesus.RobD said:
No, I mean I thought it was from a study where they tested a few hundred people and determined the under-reporting of cases.Chris said:
You think someone has gone out and counted all the people in the UK who were infected but not tested, including the ones that have since recovered.RobD said:
Isn't this based on studies where they did actually count them though?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
You're having a joke, right?
It just seemed like you'd missed the point entirely.0 -
As I said to Alistair, if it bothers you that much, you don’t have to use me as a go between, the bloke is on Twitter, speak to himRobD said:.
I don't know why he would have one, but he clearly does. The plots we see are all showing that things are normal, or not as bad as people are saying. Easy to do when your data is vastly out of date.isam said:
Why would he have an agenda to push? The ONS data only goes up to 27th March I think. That’s a good enough reason to stop it there for meRobD said:
Another plot that only goes up to the 27th of March. Remind me what the date is today again. The reason he managed it is that he's got an agenda to push.Alistair said:
How the fuck has he managed to fit the blue line so it's curve manages to flatten out at the end?isam said:
Take off the latest day of data and it would have to be going stratospheric just like the red line.0 -
"Brendan O’Neill self identifies as a Marxist libertarian."guybrush said:I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
Just seen this. Really surprised by it. Wonder if he's taking the piss.0 -
Do they?RobD said:
They release both numbers, so you could check against yesterday's number.bigjohnowls said:
Oh no let's not go down that route again!!!!RobD said:
Tests vs people?bigjohnowls said:Raab just gave wrong test numbers unless we have done minus 40000 today
Thanks.0 -
799 new deaths in New York state
Slow down in increase in hospital and ICU admissions1 -
May be advisable for everyone to speak of "relaxing the lockdown" instead of "ending the lockdown".eristdoof said:My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.
The latter may reinforce the incorrect binary view of some people that everything will be going from 1 to 0 and then back to 1 again.1 -
Last 7 days total cases +93%, week before that was 191%. Getting there.
1 -
Remember when @Theuniondivvie was hyper protective of the Chinese regime?Theuniondivvie said:
Anyone remember the good old days when the Spiked crew were hyper protective of Milošević, Mladić and Karadžić? Happy, innocent times.TGOHF666 said:1 -
So, to sum up -AlastairMeeks said:
It must be difficult not knowing whether to mourn the fall of the Berlin Wall or mine the English Channel.Alistair said:
Did you see the "Criticising Hungary for Making Orban a Dictator is Actually Anti-Hungarian Racism" from a week or so back? Probably Peak Spiked.AlastairMeeks said:
Good grief. What snowflakes!TGOHF666 said:
Until now.
1) A phrase was used
2) This triggered some people
3) The triggering triggered some other people
4) The triggering by triggering triggered some other people
5) The triggering by triggering by triggering... triggered someone
Can we talk about something important? OK...
Which tonic works best with Pollination Gin?1 -
If you are offended by my swearing please stop posting graphs filled with bogus data and even more bogus 'trend'* linesisam said:
Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.Alistair said:
Sorry, this chart is really fucking bothering me.isam said:
On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
The ONS deaths figures are here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and they don't agree with the chart either.
This chart is just wrong.
* Where trend line means he's hit Up on the Polynomial button enough times to get the shape of curve he wants.0 -
How the f*** could it go sky high, when they are doing so few tests? It's only a few per cent of the true figure. Meaningless.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If more tests result in fewer cases, then it must be positive.Chris said:
How the f*** could it go sky high, when they are doing so few tests? It's only a few per cent of the true figure. Meaningless.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Completely mad and ahistorical philosophy. Furedi is the man behind the thinking, and it all goes back to the late 70's.kinabalu said:
"Brendan O’Neill self identifies as a Marxist libertarian."guybrush said:I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
Just seen this. Really surprised by it. Wonder if he's taking the piss.1 -
Yeah - that's probably the most useful guide to the state of what's going on. When that starts to drop (hopefully early next week) we can see that things are getting more under control.maaarsh said:New label still on the graph if there was any doubt. Total hospital occupancy 2% up nationally and really pretty flat in most places
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My MP taking no nonsense about claims of a £10k payrise from IPSA. Fair play tbh.
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Chris Witty and Sir Patrick Vallance should be number 1 and 2 in the line of succession.0
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What he is saying is that the numbers of people arriving at hospital with serious COVID19 symptoms are stabilising.Chris said:
How the f*** could it go sky high, when they are doing so few tests? It's only a few per cent of the true figure. Meaningless.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Agreed, that's why I wrote "start the wind-down" to imply that it will be a gradual thing.matthiasfromhamburg said:
May be advisable for everyone to speak of "relaxing the lockdown" instead of "ending the lockdown".eristdoof said:My partner just made a very good comment about relaxing the lock down. When that happens there will almost certainly be an increase again in cases and deaths in the folowing month. When a government makes the decision to start the wind-down they will have to be pretty certain that things will not return to the situation we are at now.
At the moment we are are a long way from that stage.
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They test everyone hospitalised. It's a good proxy for all cases.Chris said:
How the f*** could it go sky high, when they are doing so few tests? It's only a few per cent of the true figure. Meaningless.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
More utterly vapid questions from the media. If there's one thing to have failed during this pandemic, it's them.2
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Sam Coates going down the pointless "when will you......" route today.
And, yes, he gets the same answer as previous days. People normally learn from their mistakes and don't make them again, so why do the journalists not learn from theirs? I can only conclude that they think the public love them wasting questions every day.1 -
I don't know how many people were tested in the last day, but I looked yesterday and the new cases in the last two days were almost exactly 40% of the number of people tested. And almost exactly the same for the past week. The number of new cases is just reflecting how many people have been tested, with some fluctuation in the percentage of positive tests, but not much.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If more tests result in fewer cases, then it must be positive.Chris said:
How the f*** could it go sky high, when they are doing so few tests? It's only a few per cent of the true figure. Meaningless.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Is Raab really going to commit to an NHS pay increase right now? Utterly vacuous questions from these feckless buffoons.0
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Is he being paid to provide soft balls?ukpaul said:Sam Coates going down the pointless "when will you......" route today.
And, yes, he gets the same answer as previous days. People normally learn from their mistakes and don't make them again, so why do the journalists not learn from theirs? I can only conclude that they think the public love them wasting questions every day.
This is starting to remind me of England technique vs the West Indies in the 80s - slow medium pace bowling, and then shocked surprise as Viv Richards makes another 6.0 -
Agreed, mind numbing question. Handled smoothly by Raab though, looking and sounding the part. His stock will have risen by the end of this if he can keep it up.KentRising said:Is Raab really going to commit to an NHS pay increase right now? Utterly vacuous questions from these feckless buffoons.
1 -
Italian numbers
Active cases : 96.877 (+1.615) including 3.605 (-88) in ICU
Deaths: 18.279 (+610)
Healed/discharged: 28.470 (+1.979)
Total cases: 143.626 (+4.204)
A bit worse than yesterday. Led by Lombardia providing worse numbers (with more tests though).0 -
He's a republican as well.kinabalu said:
"Brendan O’Neill self identifies as a Marxist libertarian."guybrush said:I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
Just seen this. Really surprised by it. Wonder if he's taking the piss.0 -
Have it your own way. I thought everyone knew it was limited by testing capacity, but never mind.JohnLilburne said:
They test everyone hospitalised. It's a good proxy for all cases.Chris said:
How the f*** could it go sky high, when they are doing so few tests? It's only a few per cent of the true figure. Meaningless.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
No, I don't mind him. He's never been in my chamber of horrors with the likes of Patel and Mogg. Wouldn't say I've quite become a fan but he's doing a job here and I appreciate the lack of pyrotechnics.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not a fan of Dominic Raab but I am now.
He's quietly calm and authoritative.0 -
It reminds me of playing tennis with my 7 year old daughter. First I signal with exaggerated movements exactly what I am going to do. Then I hit the ball very very very slowly. Then I applaud when she hits it back...guybrush said:
Agreed, mind numbing question. Handled smoothly by Raab though, looking and sounding the part. His stock will have risen by the end of this if he can keep it up.KentRising said:Is Raab really going to commit to an NHS pay increase right now? Utterly vacuous questions from these feckless buffoons.
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Yes, very bright chap, quietly impressive. About time he got some credit. Does come over a tad robotic though, I can see that, but maybe less so lately?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not a fan of Dominic Raab but I am now.
He's quietly calm and authoritative.
Iain Dale interviewed all the Tory leadership hopefuls last summer (except Boris) and Raab was by far the most impressive I thought.0 -
The most successful mission for the Boulton Paul Defiant was on 29 May 1940, "when No. 264 Squadron claimed 37 kills in two sorties: 19 Ju 87 Stukas, mostly picked off as they came out of their dives, nine Messerschmitt Bf 110 twin-engined heavy fighters, eight Bf 109s and a Ju-88; one Defiant gunner was lost after he bailed out, although the aircraft made it back to its base to be repaired."Wulfrun_Phil said:
Given the lousy PPE equipment or rather the lack of it that they're required to wear into battle, it's more like fighting against the odds in Boulton Paul Defiants or even Fairey Battles.Foxy said:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1247784868571836418?s=19
Not sure about the Spitfire analogy though.
This is truly shocking given the absence of planning that it evidences:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/three-nurses-who-wear-bin-218372380 -
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not a fan of Dominic Raab but I am now.
He's quietly calm and authoritative.
Yes, he is doing well today.0 -
Oh FFS.
More stupid questions about when the lockdown will end.0 -
I don`t know the answer, but I stuck my finger in the air and suggested that maybe 20 unrecorded for eveyr 1 recorded, and someone posted back that scientists say 83. Seems high to me but must be extrapolating from something I guess. Great news if true.Benpointer said:
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?0 -
I thought left libertarians self-identified as Anarchists?kinabalu said:
"Brendan O’Neill self identifies as a Marxist libertarian."guybrush said:I used to lap Spiked up, 10 years ago, but I now find it immensely tedious. Wonder if it has a significant readership, or is it just Brendan O'Neills' hobby horse.
Just seen this. Really surprised by it. Wonder if he's taking the piss.0 -
It's an estimate.Benpointer said:
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?0 -
I think Sir Patrick Vallance has just more or less said they don't know in answer to the last question.Stocky said:
I don`t know the answer, but I stuck my finger in the air and suggested that maybe 20 unrecorded for eveyr 1 recorded, and someone posted back that scientists say 83. Seems high to me but must be extrapolating from something I guess. Great news if true.Benpointer said:
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-must-learn-from-german-response-to-covid-19-says-whittyTheScreamingEagles said:Chris Witty and Sir Patrick Vallance should be number 1 and 2 in the line of succession.
"UK must learn from German response to Covid-19, says Whitty."0 -
That was a bit of an abrupt end!0
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He is growing on me. It is also nice to see a British Jew in such an important position after the last few years.Benpointer said:TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not a fan of Dominic Raab but I am now.
He's quietly calm and authoritative.
Yes, he is doing well today.0 -
I’m not offended, I’m embarrassed for youAlistair said:
If you are offended by my swearing please stop posting graphs filled with bogus data and even more bogus 'trend'* linesisam said:
Swearing when discussing this is completely unnecessary. If you feel this strongly about it, get in touch with the bloke on Twitter, not that difficult to do really.Alistair said:
Sorry, this chart is really fucking bothering me.isam said:
On the 27th of March there were not 250 deaths released on the daily death count, there was 181 over the whole country not just over 250 in E&W only. It was the 25th not the 24th that had the anomalous drop due to change in reporting time period.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
The ONS deaths figures are here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and they don't agree with the chart either.
This chart is just wrong.
* Where trend line means he's hit Up on the Polynomial button enough times to get the shape of curve he wants.
I’ll post whatever I like, and if you have a problem with the content, the person who made it is so easily contactable it makes me wonder why you haven’t already done so.0 -
83? Based on what?Chris said:
It's an estimate.Benpointer said:
Not every one of them obviously but they'd need to have counted a number of them. How did they do that?Chris said:
Yeah! How can people have any idea how many things there are without actually counting every one of them?Benpointer said:
If they are "not known" how can somebody know there are 83 of them?Stocky said:
Someone was saying on previous thread that there are 83 "not knowns" to every 1 known infection. If true, this would bring the UK death rate down to 0.16% (assuming all deaths are known).williamglenn said:The UK currently has the highest confirmed case fatality rate in the world at over 13%.
My brain hurts!
Isn't the truth that absolutely no one knows how many actual infections there are out there?0 -
I think that's right. If we had precise control of the situation, if we do THIS then hospital admissions will do THAT, it would perhaps be possible to get cute about things, hold the clutch on the biting point, but since the modelling does not have a high level of confidence, and we are talking about people's lives, it will be necessary to squash the virus right down so as to create a large buffer zone as against NHS capacity before we relax the lockdown. In 9 weeks, for me.Chris said:Yes - we need to get the numbers of active cases down to a few per cent of what they are now. Getting a week or something past the peak is no use at all.
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The same Richard Horton who published Wakefield's MMR paper in the Lancet and left it up for 12 years - leading to many needless deaths.TheScreamingEagles said:
That one?2
This discussion has been closed.