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Makes sense. And I suppose in extremis the ICU would become entirely free of the elderly if they were to be denied it on age grounds. I'm thinking we are not doing any of this atm in the UK - but how would we know if we were? Tweets from doctors or Hancock on the telly?Chris said:The evolution of the Italian statistics on the age distribution of fatalities does suggest that younger patients are taking much longer to die. A tiny proportion of the dead were below 60 early on. A significantly larger proportion now.
If younger people take longer to die, it would imply they account for a larger proportion of the patients in ICU than might be expected, and might partly explain comments like the one quoted.0 -
Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.0 -
The issue is that the clubs could end up having to pay several hundred million back to Sky and other broadcasters, sponsors and other affiliates. If the season ends up played in empty stadia there will be no ticket and hospitality revenue either. Several clubs could be in serious financial difficulties as a result.kle4 said:
I'm still baffled more clubs havent gone for a PR boost wherein even if players are receiving full salary they decide to donate half of it or a third or whatever to charitable causes.Sandpit said:We can add Premier League football players to the list of people making idiots of themselves this week, refusing pay cuts even as non-playing staff of the clubs get furloughed. The PFA are seriously trying to argue that the clubs not paying their seven figure salaries would deprive the NHS of tax revenues!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2020/04/05/pfa-calls-full-financial-disclosure-clubs-hits-back-matt-hancocks/
Contrast with the Premier League rugby players, who have agreed to pay cuts and furloughs, and of course the F1 teams who have donated huge resources to help the fight.
For the big clubs it would make no difference to the players and engender hugely positive press. No, footballers shouldn't be scapegoats, but being cynical itd be easy to look great right now.
To the man in the street, it doesn't seem outrageous that players who are not playing or training could happily take a 50% pay cut, given they all earn at least five figures a week. The PFA comes across like Bob Crow threatening to march out the Tube drivers during the Olympics.0 -
If it was true then those newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.0 -
HYUFD does not do logic so showing him a logical flaw by analogy is pointless. I have tried umpteen times by both doing this and also resorting to converting statements made into logical notation (so taking out the contention of the points and reducing to logical notation). He doesn't understand it. He can pick up lots of facts, which is really useful and interesting but is completely incapable of logical deduction or the implication of context.IshmaelZ said:
That's a no, then. And what on earth makes you think that you can read across from data about the first world and China to countries like India? What do you think of this argument: victims in China and Europe are predominantly yellow or white skinned; the vast majority of Indians are brown skinned; therefore India will be largely immune to the disease?HYUFD said:
The Palestinian authority, parts of Mauritius which were less wealthy but it is pre existing health conditions that impact on Covid 19 death rate only which are relevantIshmaelZ said:
Like, what, AIDS, malaria, TB, polio, dysentery, treatment resistant bacterial pneumonia, pollution-linked lung disease and malnutrition? To repeat a question I asked you the other day, have you ever been to any third world country?HYUFD said:
You only tend to need medical treatment on average if you are old or obese or with pre existing health conditions anywaySandpit said:
More than anything else, it's a lack of sufficient medical resources that determines the death rate. India is very much third world in this regard.HYUFD said:
It is high BMI and diabetes and cancer and heart conditions that increase your chances of dying from Covid 19, again those tend to be more diseases of age and of rich western nations and few Indians are obeseSandpit said:
That the average life expectancy in India is only 55, suggests that many people in their 40s and 50s are already seriously ill.HYUFD said:
Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.Sandpit said:
India, more so than anywhere else, is going to be completely screwed by this virus.kamski said:
India accounts for just 2% of China's foreign trade (3% of exports and 1% of imports - which just emphasises how little India has of anything that China wants or needs).HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Macron, Abe, Modi and Trudeau have shown they will work with Trump when requiredCasino_Royale said:
Coordinating foreign and economic policy across the West and with India.logical_song said:
Just how eaxactly will Boris 'hold China to account'?Casino_Royale said:
China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.logical_song said:
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.
This might well depend on Trump losing the White House in November though.
But it is, tragically, currently led by an extreme far-right anti-democratic ethno-nationalist, so maybe that is why you are often so keen on India?
They can't enforce a lockdown, and they have some of the most densely populated cities on earth - with no running water or supermarkets, nor anything close to sufficient medical facilities.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast
It's only over 80s with a high death rate in Western countries with good medical systems - if this goes around India as it has everywhere else, it's not unreasonable to expect tens of millions of deaths.
I stand by my comments from weeks ago, that India will most likely have the highest death toll of any country when the virus is finally under control.0 -
IndeedFoss said:
If it was true then the newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.0 -
This is a joke, right? Have you ever met anyone, either online or in real life, who is as intelligent as you?Chris said:
I suppose it's all relative, but I'd have thought we'd all have met some pretty unintelligent Oxbridge graduates.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think the Cambridge graduate has a low IQ? Or for that matter the Oxford graduate to whom you also refer?kle4 said:
You seem to get really irate at such comments. Do you not think people should be able to speculate about the intellectual capacity of senior politicians without access to an actual IQ test? It's fine, Raab for one gets it too (though not so much as Burgon)bigjohnowls said:
Whats Burgons IQ?Andy_JS said:The average IQ of the shadow cabinet just went through the roof.
I dont think they have and therefore would never make such a stupid comment0 -
I think we are a couple of weeks at least behind that (more likely three I'd guess - a six week lockdown seems optimal).bigjohnowls said:
TrueMaxPB said:
It gives us a reliable source of data as well wrt a possible second wave on easing of restrictions.bigjohnowls said:
Good news for Austria.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
https://www.barrons.com/news/austria-could-start-loosening-lockdown-from-april-14-chancellor-01586165703
"The aim is that from April 14... smaller shops up to a size of 400 square metres, as well as hardware and garden stores can open again, under strict security conditions of course," Kurz said at a press conference.
He added that if the government's timetable goes to plan, larger shops will reopen on 1 May and from mid-May hotels, restaurants and other services could also start to open their doors again in stages.
I think us being a week or so behind their timetable is optimistic.
But in a sense that's not so bad - it suggests that IF we get this under control, we can envisage smaller shops reopening but with social distancing enforced carefully (and I suspect the requirement that people wear masks) from around the May Bank Holiday weekend.0 -
There's an easier way of doing that.MarqueeMark said:
They work for China's purposes - of not wanting to find people with Covid-19....Andy_JS said:"Britain has millions of coronavirus antibody tests, but they don’t work
None of the antibody tests ordered by the government is good enough to use, the new testing chief has admitted.
Professor John Newton said that tests ordered from China were able to identify immunity accurately only in people who had been severely ill and that Britain was no longer hoping to buy millions of kits off the shelf."
(£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-has-millions-of-coronavirus-antibody-tests-but-they-don-t-work-j7kb55g890 -
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:0 -
Disappointing for the environmentMarqueeMark said:Use of coal at six of the top Chinese power producers is back up to near 2018 and 2019 levels:
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Let's hope so, imagine having a choice of sensible options at an election. Not been like this since 2001.algarkirk said:Are we heading for a world where sane political centrists could actually have a choice of as many as two political parties who could realistically form a government? We are living through a political revolution.
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Liam Fox's article posted up(down?)thread gives some pointers about how we might do it, by classifying people into groups who may be reintegrated into the wider community at different speeds.MaxPB said:
It gives us a reliable source of data as well wrt a possible second wave on easing of restrictions.bigjohnowls said:
Good news for Austria.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
https://www.barrons.com/news/austria-could-start-loosening-lockdown-from-april-14-chancellor-01586165703
"The aim is that from April 14... smaller shops up to a size of 400 square metres, as well as hardware and garden stores can open again, under strict security conditions of course," Kurz said at a press conference.
He added that if the government's timetable goes to plan, larger shops will reopen on 1 May and from mid-May hotels, restaurants and other services could also start to open their doors again in stages.
I think us being a week or so behind their timetable is optimistic.0 -
Italy and Spain data show a dropping off - we wont be far behind after Easter.Chris said:
Don't give me that bullshit. The article says nothing about the UK.TGOHF666 said:
Your post tells me you haven't read the article.Chris said:
Which tells me you have not the slightest clue about the vast gulf between the Austrian numbers and the British ones.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
Just look at the bloody figures. Maximum number of daily deaths in Austria ever recorded: 22.
How can anyone be so stupid?
Austria aren't opening up tomorrow - they are releasing a plan for the next few weeks - all very sensible and this will turn the focus on Uk following on.
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What's happened to the argument that the very wealthy contribute massively to society because of all the tax they pay?Sandpit said:We can add Premier League football players to the list of people making idiots of themselves this week, refusing pay cuts even as non-playing staff of the clubs get furloughed. The PFA are seriously trying to argue that the clubs not paying their seven figure salaries would deprive the NHS of tax revenues!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2020/04/05/pfa-calls-full-financial-disclosure-clubs-hits-back-matt-hancocks/
Contrast with the Premier League rugby players, who have agreed to pay cuts and furloughs, and of course the F1 teams who have donated huge resources to help the fight.
It's bollox of course but you would be one of those usually very keen to make it.0 -
Of course, many. Though not the person I'm replying to now, I'm afraid ...TOPPING said:
This is a joke, right? Have you ever met anyone, either online or in real life, who is as intelligent as you?Chris said:
I suppose it's all relative, but I'd have thought we'd all have met some pretty unintelligent Oxbridge graduates.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think the Cambridge graduate has a low IQ? Or for that matter the Oxford graduate to whom you also refer?kle4 said:
You seem to get really irate at such comments. Do you not think people should be able to speculate about the intellectual capacity of senior politicians without access to an actual IQ test? It's fine, Raab for one gets it too (though not so much as Burgon)bigjohnowls said:
Whats Burgons IQ?Andy_JS said:The average IQ of the shadow cabinet just went through the roof.
I dont think they have and therefore would never make such a stupid comment0 -
Christina Rees sacked from shadow cabinet.0
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She not he.kjh said:
HYUFD does not do logic so showing him a logical flaw by analogy is pointless. I have tried umpteen times by both doing this and also resorting to converting statements made into logical notation (so taking out the contention of the points and reducing to logical notation). He doesn't understand it. He can pick up lots of facts, which is really useful and interesting but is completely incapable of logical deduction or the implication of context.IshmaelZ said:
That's a no, then. And what on earth makes you think that you can read across from data about the first world and China to countries like India? What do you think of this argument: victims in China and Europe are predominantly yellow or white skinned; the vast majority of Indians are brown skinned; therefore India will be largely immune to the disease?HYUFD said:
The Palestinian authority, parts of Mauritius which were less wealthy but it is pre existing health conditions that impact on Covid 19 death rate only which are relevantIshmaelZ said:
Like, what, AIDS, malaria, TB, polio, dysentery, treatment resistant bacterial pneumonia, pollution-linked lung disease and malnutrition? To repeat a question I asked you the other day, have you ever been to any third world country?HYUFD said:
You only tend to need medical treatment on average if you are old or obese or with pre existing health conditions anywaySandpit said:
More than anything else, it's a lack of sufficient medical resources that determines the death rate. India is very much third world in this regard.HYUFD said:
It is high BMI and diabetes and cancer and heart conditions that increase your chances of dying from Covid 19, again those tend to be more diseases of age and of rich western nations and few Indians are obeseSandpit said:
That the average life expectancy in India is only 55, suggests that many people in their 40s and 50s are already seriously ill.HYUFD said:
Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.Sandpit said:
India, more so than anywhere else, is going to be completely screwed by this virus.kamski said:
India accounts for just 2% of China's foreign trade (3% of exports and 1% of imports - which just emphasises how little India has of anything that China wants or needs).HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Macron, Abe, Modi and Trudeau have shown they will work with Trump when requiredCasino_Royale said:
Coordinating foreign and economic policy across the West and with India.logical_song said:
Just how eaxactly will Boris 'hold China to account'?Casino_Royale said:
China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.logical_song said:
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.
This might well depend on Trump losing the White House in November though.
But it is, tragically, currently led by an extreme far-right anti-democratic ethno-nationalist, so maybe that is why you are often so keen on India?
They can't enforce a lockdown, and they have some of the most densely populated cities on earth - with no running water or supermarkets, nor anything close to sufficient medical facilities.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast
It's only over 80s with a high death rate in Western countries with good medical systems - if this goes around India as it has everywhere else, it's not unreasonable to expect tens of millions of deaths.
I stand by my comments from weeks ago, that India will most likely have the highest death toll of any country when the virus is finally under control.0 -
Who?!AndreaParma_82 said:Christina Rees sacked from shadow cabinet.
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Singapore has 2 airports and Changi has 4 terminals. Closing one of the 4 hardly seems like the apocalypse.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
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Neath MP. Shadow Secretary for Wales. Ex wife of Ron Davies.numbertwelve said:
Who?!AndreaParma_82 said:Christina Rees sacked from shadow cabinet.
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According to Worldometer: compared to UK, Austria has twice as many cases per 1M of population yet only one third of the deaths per 1M of population. UK population density is much greater than Austria. Curious.Chris said:
Don't give me that bullshit. The article says nothing about the UK.TGOHF666 said:
Your post tells me you haven't read the article.Chris said:
Which tells me you have not the slightest clue about the vast gulf between the Austrian numbers and the British ones.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
Just look at the bloody figures. Maximum number of daily deaths in Austria ever recorded: 22.
How can anyone be so stupid?0 -
Lord Burgon of Bungle?0
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Possibly. Looking at that account of trajectory it's about 50-somethings doing initially quite well, then declining after a longer period of time. If middle aged who die take a lot longer to do so than elderly who die then, even if the same numbers of both are arriving and getting treatment, there will be more 50-somethings (depending on the relative times to deah, you could have more 50-somethings even if fewer of them are arriving in the first place).kinabalu said:
Right. And I've read plenty similar from the front line. A great many of the very sick on vents are middle aged men.AlastairMeeks said:I posted this tweet this morning. It’s worth reposting:
https://twitter.com/shanxonline/status/1246976779400753155?s=21
But how does this square up with the data that those who die are mainly old?
Does it mean that lots of the older ones are dying BEFORE ventilator stage, either because they go quickly or because they are being denied it on scarcity and prioritization grounds?
We also have to be careful with these anecdotal data. Reports from clinicians are valid of their experience and informative, but they are themselves seeing a very distorted picture. Our next-door neighbour's sister is an ICU nurse and has been horrified at what she's been seeing for weeks, urging us all to stay at home well before the lock down, but she - by job role - is only seeing those very sick with COVID-19, not seeing the large numbers who have a relatively mild infection. Not to belittle this at all, it's a serious thing, but the only numbers that give a true(ish) picture are whole population (in whatever area). Even with those, we're probably not picking up at all a lot of the milder cases.1 -
I would trust the front page of the Mail to be accurate - partly because this is the drip style effect we've seen this Government use and secondly because there does seem to be a potential risk of sudden decline. And there is this from my tweeter feed earlierbigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/shanxonline/status/1246976779400753155
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T2 is the old terminal there (opened in 1990) and dedicated to regional and low-cost airlines.CarlottaVance said:
They were most likely planning a refurb anyway, and have brought it forward.0 -
I think everyone would settle for that.ABZ said:
I think we are a couple of weeks at least behind that (more likely three I'd guess - a six week lockdown seems optimal).bigjohnowls said:
TrueMaxPB said:
It gives us a reliable source of data as well wrt a possible second wave on easing of restrictions.bigjohnowls said:
Good news for Austria.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
https://www.barrons.com/news/austria-could-start-loosening-lockdown-from-april-14-chancellor-01586165703
"The aim is that from April 14... smaller shops up to a size of 400 square metres, as well as hardware and garden stores can open again, under strict security conditions of course," Kurz said at a press conference.
He added that if the government's timetable goes to plan, larger shops will reopen on 1 May and from mid-May hotels, restaurants and other services could also start to open their doors again in stages.
I think us being a week or so behind their timetable is optimistic.
But in a sense that's not so bad - it suggests that IF we get this under control, we can envisage smaller shops reopening but with social distancing enforced carefully (and I suspect the requirement that people wear masks) from around the May Bank Holiday weekend.
I have a feeling our numbers tomorrow (not those due out at 2pm today) will be really bad.
I reckon they may test the worst new daily deaths recorded anywhere in Europe so far.
Has anyone topped 1000 in a day? It wouldnt surprise me if we got very close to the 1000 tomorrow.
Would love to be wrong0 -
Good-looking numbers from Spain: not just that new cases are falling, but the number of recovered is picking up. The point of crossover should be the next few days.2
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You are not the most astute reader of the Labour Party, it has to be said.oxfordsimon said:Credit to Starmer on this one. I didn't think he would have the balls to do this.
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We're very lucky to be a week or two behind lots of places (that are more comparable to us/more transparent than China) so that we'll be able to learn - hopefully - from their experiences.MaxPB said:
It gives us a reliable source of data as well wrt a possible second wave on easing of restrictions.bigjohnowls said:
Good news for Austria.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
https://www.barrons.com/news/austria-could-start-loosening-lockdown-from-april-14-chancellor-01586165703
"The aim is that from April 14... smaller shops up to a size of 400 square metres, as well as hardware and garden stores can open again, under strict security conditions of course," Kurz said at a press conference.
He added that if the government's timetable goes to plan, larger shops will reopen on 1 May and from mid-May hotels, restaurants and other services could also start to open their doors again in stages.
I think us being a week or so behind their timetable is optimistic.1 -
Although....bigjohnowls said:
IndeedFoss said:
If it was true then the newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5rXfOxvgVY&feature=youtu.be
(at around 48 seconds).0 -
Well - Austrian daily cases peaked about a fortnight ago (and their apparent fatality rate indicates that unlike the UK, they aren't just detecting 2-3% of the true figure).TGOHF666 said:
Italy and Spain data show a dropping off - we wont be far behind after Easter.Chris said:
Don't give me that bullshit. The article says nothing about the UK.TGOHF666 said:
Your post tells me you haven't read the article.Chris said:
Which tells me you have not the slightest clue about the vast gulf between the Austrian numbers and the British ones.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
Just look at the bloody figures. Maximum number of daily deaths in Austria ever recorded: 22.
How can anyone be so stupid?
Austria aren't opening up tomorrow - they are releasing a plan for the next few weeks - all very sensible and this will focus on Uk following on.
Even that tiny sample for the UK is 6000 and rising.
It's absolute nonsense to suggest we're a week behind Austria.0 -
(Guardian)Foss said:
If it was true then those newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
The Times says Johnson is being treated in the nearest NHS hospital to Downing Street – Guys and St Thomas’ on the south bank of the Thames.
It was understood that Mr Johnson was driven to St Thomas’ hospital, across the Thames from Westminster, at about 8pm, and given oxygen treatment. He did not need an ambulance. Officials emphasised that it was not an emergency admission. They said that his doctor had wanted him to be assessed in hospital....0 -
RochdalePioneers said:
She not he.kjh said:
HYUFD does not do logic so showing him a logical flaw by analogy is pointless. I have tried umpteen times by both doing this and also resorting to converting statements made into logical notation (so taking out the contention of the points and reducing to logical notation). He doesn't understand it. He can pick up lots of facts, which is really useful and interesting but is completely incapable of logical deduction or the implication of context.IshmaelZ said:
That's a no, then. And what on earth makes you think that you can read across from data about the first world and China to countries like India? What do you think of this argument: victims in China and Europe are predominantly yellow or white skinned; the vast majority of Indians are brown skinned; therefore India will be largely immune to the disease?HYUFD said:
The Palestinian authority, parts of Mauritius which were less wealthy but it is pre existing health conditions that impact on Covid 19 death rate only which are relevantIshmaelZ said:
Like, what, AIDS, malaria, TB, polio, dysentery, treatment resistant bacterial pneumonia, pollution-linked lung disease and malnutrition? To repeat a question I asked you the other day, have you ever been to any third world country?HYUFD said:
You only tend to need medical treatment on average if you are old or obese or with pre existing health conditions anywaySandpit said:
More than anything else, it's a lack of sufficient medical resources that determines the death rate. India is very much third world in this regard.HYUFD said:
It is high BMI and diabetes and cancer and heart conditions that increase your chances of dying from Covid 19, again those tend to be more diseases of age and of rich western nations and few Indians are obeseSandpit said:
That the average life expectancy in India is only 55, suggests that many people in their 40s and 50s are already seriously ill.HYUFD said:
Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.Sandpit said:
India, more so than anywhere else, is going to be completely screwed by this virus.kamski said:
India accounts for just 2% of China's foreign trade (3% of exports and 1% of imports - which just emphasises how little India has of anything that China wants or needs).HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Macron, Abe, Modi and Trudeau have shown they will work with Trump when requiredCasino_Royale said:
Coordinating foreign and economic policy across the West and with India.logical_song said:
Just how eaxactly will Boris 'hold China to account'?Casino_Royale said:
China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.logical_song said:
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.
This might well depend on Trump losing the White House in November though.
But it is, tragically, currently led by an extreme far-right anti-democratic ethno-nationalist, so maybe that is why you are often so keen on India?
They can't enforce a lockdown, and they have some of the most densely populated cities on earth - with no running water or supermarkets, nor anything close to sufficient medical facilities.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast
It's only over 80s with a high death rate in Western countries with good medical systems - if this goes around India as it has everywhere else, it's not unreasonable to expect tens of millions of deaths.
I stand by my comments from weeks ago, that India will most likely have the highest death toll of any country when the virus is finally under control.
He is definitely a he. If you are referring to a conversation of a few days ago you must have missed the end of it. The chair being a female was out of date. He was the vice chair and now the chair. 0 -
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:1 -
Look IQ is a measure of intelligence - but quite often a high IQ is no barrier to stupidity. I juat discovered today that Burgon was an alumnus at my old College. I don't think I'll ever be the same again. Also remember that entry to Oxbridge while largely linked to relatively high academic ability it has never been exclusively so. Prince Charles went to Trinity Cambridge. I believe TSE may also be a Cambridge manbigjohnowls said:
Do you think the Cambridge graduate has a low IQ? Or for that matter the Oxford graduate to whom you also refer?kle4 said:
You seem to get really irate at such comments. Do you not think people should be able to speculate about the intellectual capacity of senior politicians without access to an actual IQ test? It's fine, Raab for one gets it too (though not so much as Burgon)bigjohnowls said:
Whats Burgons IQ?Andy_JS said:The average IQ of the shadow cabinet just went through the roof.
I dont think they have and therefore would never make such a stupid comment
You can't win them all. 0 -
Where is Boris now? Hospital or home?Nigelb said:
(Guardian)Foss said:
If it was true then those newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
The Times says Johnson is being treated in the nearest NHS hospital to Downing Street – Guys and St Thomas’ on the south bank of the Thames.
It was understood that Mr Johnson was driven to St Thomas’ hospital, across the Thames from Westminster, at about 8pm, and given oxygen treatment. He did not need an ambulance. Officials emphasised that it was not an emergency admission. They said that his doctor had wanted him to be assessed in hospital....0 -
I have a feeling my MP will get a Junior Ministerial post0
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Obviously because Austria has detected a much larger percentage of its cases - not just the cases that are hospitalised.Stocky said:
According to Worldometer: compared to UK, Austria has twice as many cases per 1M of population yet only one third of the deaths per 1M of population. UK population density is much greater than Austria. Curious.Chris said:
Don't give me that bullshit. The article says nothing about the UK.TGOHF666 said:
Your post tells me you haven't read the article.Chris said:
Which tells me you have not the slightest clue about the vast gulf between the Austrian numbers and the British ones.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
Just look at the bloody figures. Maximum number of daily deaths in Austria ever recorded: 22.
How can anyone be so stupid?0 -
In normal times yes, I'd argue for rich people who pay taxes. But these are not normal times, and the PL footballers come across as entitled and inflexible - when everyone else is bending over backwards to help out. None of them will go hungry if they don't get paid for three months.kinabalu said:
What's happened to the argument that the very wealthy contribute massively to society because of all the tax they pay?Sandpit said:We can add Premier League football players to the list of people making idiots of themselves this week, refusing pay cuts even as non-playing staff of the clubs get furloughed. The PFA are seriously trying to argue that the clubs not paying their seven figure salaries would deprive the NHS of tax revenues!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2020/04/05/pfa-calls-full-financial-disclosure-clubs-hits-back-matt-hancocks/
Contrast with the Premier League rugby players, who have agreed to pay cuts and furloughs, and of course the F1 teams who have donated huge resources to help the fight.
It's bollox of course but you would be one of those usually very keen to make it.
The PL itself, and a number of clubs could be in serious financial difficulties if the season isn't completed with crowds in the stadia and the matches on Pay-TV. IMO we are most likely to see empty stadia and matches free to air.0 -
I have no idea, other than that it's reported he overnighted in hospital.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Where is Boris now? Hospital or home?Nigelb said:
(Guardian)Foss said:
If it was true then those newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
The Times says Johnson is being treated in the nearest NHS hospital to Downing Street – Guys and St Thomas’ on the south bank of the Thames.
It was understood that Mr Johnson was driven to St Thomas’ hospital, across the Thames from Westminster, at about 8pm, and given oxygen treatment. He did not need an ambulance. Officials emphasised that it was not an emergency admission. They said that his doctor had wanted him to be assessed in hospital....
I don't think you can infer much more about his condition for now.
There's not a huge amount of point speculating, as it will become clear one way or another fairly soon.1 -
The "English Newspapers" makes it sound like a comment from someone not from the UK... Fake News from the Russia Troll farms again.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Where is Boris now? Hospital or home?Nigelb said:
(Guardian)Foss said:
If it was true then those newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
The Times says Johnson is being treated in the nearest NHS hospital to Downing Street – Guys and St Thomas’ on the south bank of the Thames.
It was understood that Mr Johnson was driven to St Thomas’ hospital, across the Thames from Westminster, at about 8pm, and given oxygen treatment. He did not need an ambulance. Officials emphasised that it was not an emergency admission. They said that his doctor had wanted him to be assessed in hospital....
In other news, some FOFs in the US are working on some very fun fake news involving Putin.0 -
Oxbridge under constant pressure to admit people from disadvantaged backgrounds. It's hard to imagine a greater disadvantage than low IQ. Why should the Low-IQ Community be excluded from this benevolent gesture?felix said:
Look IQ is a measure of intelligence - but quite often a high IQ is no barrier to stupidity. I juat discovered today that Burgon was an alumnus at my old College. I don't think I'll ever be the same again. Also remember that entry to Oxbridge while largely linked to relatively high academic ability it has never been exclusively so. Prince Charles went to Trinity Cambridge. I believe TSE may also be a Cambridge manbigjohnowls said:
Do you think the Cambridge graduate has a low IQ? Or for that matter the Oxford graduate to whom you also refer?kle4 said:
You seem to get really irate at such comments. Do you not think people should be able to speculate about the intellectual capacity of senior politicians without access to an actual IQ test? It's fine, Raab for one gets it too (though not so much as Burgon)bigjohnowls said:
Whats Burgons IQ?Andy_JS said:The average IQ of the shadow cabinet just went through the roof.
I dont think they have and therefore would never make such a stupid comment You can't win them all.2 -
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:1 -
It's hard to find the right tone and level of detail to discuss this aspect - HOW you die of covid - but I really do think it is important.Chris said:Well, at least pneumonia was known as the "old man's friend", because it's relatively painless.
Because if you are old and you leave this world in a painless and unprolonged manner that is worth something. It's worth quite a lot.
Focus just on death TOLL misses this point. There are good and bad deaths. It should be in the mix for the decision-making, both political and personal, macro and micro.0 -
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.MaxPB said:
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?0 -
We have no evidence - yet - as to how it pans out in a genuine 3rd world country. What we do seem to know is that a lot of deaths arise from the health system falling over, which doesn't bode well for India. Secondly, even if the age - fatality correlation holds in India, that just means that there will be more deaths among the oldest cohort. It doesn't mean that they will get away unscathed because oldest cohort in the West means 70s and 80s.geoffw said:
Looks pretty universal from what I have seen.IshmaelZ said:
You do this Gradgrindish facts are facts shtick but you are incapable of putting the simplest fact in its proper context. The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age IN THE POPULATIONS WE HAVE STUDIED. THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE.HYUFD said:
That's a yes then as gdp per capita in the Palestinian authority is well below the global average.
The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age, you may not like that but facts are facts
And anyway this whole argument depends on one of HYUFD's most magisterial bellyflops.
HYUFD
"Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast."
In reality, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=IN
Life expectancy in India - 69. (Confirmed by a million other sources).
Which neutralises the whole argument. It will just turn out that it is the over 60s who have a 10%+ death rate in India.
Facts, eh?2 -
"Chinese tourist sites packed as country comes out of lockdown, but experts say risk still high"
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/06/asia/china-coronavirus-tourist-warning-intl-hnk/index.html0 -
Not really, if they've tested a much larger proportion of their population.Stocky said:
According to Worldometer: compared to UK, Austria has twice as many cases per 1M of population yet only one third of the deaths per 1M of population. UK population density is much greater than Austria. Curious.Chris said:
Don't give me that bullshit. The article says nothing about the UK.TGOHF666 said:
Your post tells me you haven't read the article.Chris said:
Which tells me you have not the slightest clue about the vast gulf between the Austrian numbers and the British ones.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
Just look at the bloody figures. Maximum number of daily deaths in Austria ever recorded: 22.
How can anyone be so stupid?0 -
Paid it. The issue is that they don't need a bailout, shareholders are willing to stump up the cash but the board seem to be ploughing on with buying the planes with taxpayer money.eek said:
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.MaxPB said:
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?0 -
This news on Boris is worrying as I have been mistaken for Boris. Well actually a Boris look-a-like, was mistaken for me, but close enough and I am 10 years the wrong side of him.1
-
Add to that, although morbid obesity is fairly uncommon (around 5% overall), some areas have a high proportion of the population overweight.IshmaelZ said:
We have no evidence - yet - as to how it pans out in a genuine 3rd world country. What we do seem to know is that a lot of deaths arise from the health system falling over, which doesn't bode well for India. Secondly, even if the age - fatality correlation holds in India, that just means that there will be more deaths among the oldest cohort. It doesn't mean that they will get away unscathed because oldest cohort in the West means 70s and 80s.geoffw said:
Looks pretty universal from what I have seen.IshmaelZ said:
You do this Gradgrindish facts are facts shtick but you are incapable of putting the simplest fact in its proper context. The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age IN THE POPULATIONS WE HAVE STUDIED. THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE.HYUFD said:
That's a yes then as gdp per capita in the Palestinian authority is well below the global average.
The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age, you may not like that but facts are facts
And anyway this whole argument depends on one of HYUFD's most magisterial bellyflops.
HYUFD
"Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast."
In reality, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=IN
Life expectancy in India - 69. (Confirmed by a million other sources).
Which neutralises the whole argument. It will just turn out that it is the over 60s who have a 10%+ death rate in India.
Facts, eh?0 -
Bloody Hell.Foss said:
Although....bigjohnowls said:
IndeedFoss said:
If it was true then the newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5rXfOxvgVY&feature=youtu.be
(at around 48 seconds).
Hope he is going to get through this.
Foxy was giving him an 85% chance last night based on actuarial factors I think but hadnt factored in him needing oxygen.0 -
Also in the poor parts of the 3rd world, many serious conditions go untreated.IshmaelZ said:
We have no evidence - yet - as to how it pans out in a genuine 3rd world country. What we do seem to know is that a lot of deaths arise from the health system falling over, which doesn't bode well for India. Secondly, even if the age - fatality correlation holds in India, that just means that there will be more deaths among the oldest cohort. It doesn't mean that they will get away unscathed because oldest cohort in the West means 70s and 80s.geoffw said:
Looks pretty universal from what I have seen.IshmaelZ said:
You do this Gradgrindish facts are facts shtick but you are incapable of putting the simplest fact in its proper context. The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age IN THE POPULATIONS WE HAVE STUDIED. THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE.HYUFD said:
That's a yes then as gdp per capita in the Palestinian authority is well below the global average.
The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age, you may not like that but facts are facts
And anyway this whole argument depends on one of HYUFD's most magisterial bellyflops.
HYUFD
"Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast."
In reality, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=IN
Life expectancy in India - 69. (Confirmed by a million other sources).
Which neutralises the whole argument. It will just turn out that it is the over 60s who have a 10%+ death rate in India.
Facts, eh?
A doctor of my aquaintance, who works with these groups, suggests that essentially *everyone* from such situations is suffering from some kind of treatable disease by western standards. Often parasites, but tons of other things.1 -
You'll have to wait for Laura K's first quesion.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Where is Boris now? Hospital or home?Nigelb said:
(Guardian)Foss said:
If it was true then those newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
The Times says Johnson is being treated in the nearest NHS hospital to Downing Street – Guys and St Thomas’ on the south bank of the Thames.
It was understood that Mr Johnson was driven to St Thomas’ hospital, across the Thames from Westminster, at about 8pm, and given oxygen treatment. He did not need an ambulance. Officials emphasised that it was not an emergency admission. They said that his doctor had wanted him to be assessed in hospital....
(Even though it will have already been answered in the introduction....)
2 -
It's not about love, it's about moneyHYUFD said:
There is little love lost between Tokyo and Beijingedmundintokyo said:
I don't know about the EU and the UK but I am highly confident that Japan is not going to do that.HYUFD said:
India will soon be the 3rd largest global economy, the US is the biggest global economy, a squeeze from them, the EU, the UK and Japan on China with economic sanctions if they do not close wet markets and improve lab safety would hit Beijing0 -
I would guess that most admitted to hospital will be given oxygen initially, since they end up there because of low blood oxygen. Doesn't tell you much more about the severity for now.bigjohnowls said:
Bloody Hell.Foss said:
Although....bigjohnowls said:
IndeedFoss said:
If it was true then the newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5rXfOxvgVY&feature=youtu.be
(at around 48 seconds).
Hope he is going to get through this.
Foxy was giving him an 85% chance last night based on actuarial factors I think but hadnt factored in him needing oxygen.2 -
Shadow Ministerial post....bigjohnowls said:I have a feeling my MP will get a Junior Ministerial post
0 -
Yes, there's little trade lost over lack of love.edmundintokyo said:
It's not about love, it's about moneyHYUFD said:
There is little love lost between Tokyo and Beijingedmundintokyo said:
I don't know about the EU and the UK but I am highly confident that Japan is not going to do that.HYUFD said:
India will soon be the 3rd largest global economy, the US is the biggest global economy, a squeeze from them, the EU, the UK and Japan on China with economic sanctions if they do not close wet markets and improve lab safety would hit Beijing
Japan/Korea, over the WWII comfort women court cases, was a recent exception.0 -
I am quite sure that there is enormous pressure by EU governments to keep the Airbus orders rolling.eek said:
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.MaxPB said:
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?0 -
Rolls Royce just cancelled theirs.eek said:
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.MaxPB said:
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?
0 -
-
Fair enough. As a she I had visions of a Miss Trunchbull type of monster...kjh said:RochdalePioneers said:
She not he.kjh said:
HYUFD does not do logic so showing him a logical flaw by analogy is pointless. I have tried umpteen times by both doing this and also resorting to converting statements made into logical notation (so taking out the contention of the points and reducing to logical notation). He doesn't understand it. He can pick up lots of facts, which is really useful and interesting but is completely incapable of logical deduction or the implication of context.IshmaelZ said:
That's a no, then. And what on earth makes you think that you can read across from data about the first world and China to countries like India? What do you think of this argument: victims in China and Europe are predominantly yellow or white skinned; the vast majority of Indians are brown skinned; therefore India will be largely immune to the disease?HYUFD said:
The Palestinian authority, parts of Mauritius which were less wealthy but it is pre existing health conditions that impact on Covid 19 death rate only which are relevantIshmaelZ said:
Like, what, AIDS, malaria, TB, polio, dysentery, treatment resistant bacterial pneumonia, pollution-linked lung disease and malnutrition? To repeat a question I asked you the other day, have you ever been to any third world country?HYUFD said:
You only tend to need medical treatment on average if you are old or obese or with pre existing health conditions anywaySandpit said:
More than anything else, it's a lack of sufficient medical resources that determines the death rate. India is very much third world in this regard.HYUFD said:
It is high BMI and diabetes and cancer and heart conditions that increase your chances of dying from Covid 19, again those tend to be more diseases of age and of rich western nations and few Indians are obeseSandpit said:
That the average life expectancy in India is only 55, suggests that many people in their 40s and 50s are already seriously ill.HYUFD said:
Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.Sandpit said:
India, more so than anywhere else, is going to be completely screwed by this virus.kamski said:
India accounts for just 2% of China's foreign trade (3% of exports and 1% of imports - which just emphasises how little India has of anything that China wants or needs).HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Macron, Abe, Modi and Trudeau have shown they will work with Trump when requiredCasino_Royale said:
Coordinating foreign and economic policy across the West and with India.logical_song said:
Just how eaxactly will Boris 'hold China to account'?Casino_Royale said:
China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.logical_song said:
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.
This might well depend on Trump losing the White House in November though.
But it is, tragically, currently led by an extreme far-right anti-democratic ethno-nationalist, so maybe that is why you are often so keen on India?
They can't enforce a lockdown, and they have some of the most densely populated cities on earth - with no running water or supermarkets, nor anything close to sufficient medical facilities.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast
It's only over 80s with a high death rate in Western countries with good medical systems - if this goes around India as it has everywhere else, it's not unreasonable to expect tens of millions of deaths.
I stand by my comments from weeks ago, that India will most likely have the highest death toll of any country when the virus is finally under control. He is definitely a he. If you are referring to a conversation of a few days ago you must have missed the end of it. The chair being a female was out of date. He was the vice chair and now the chair.0 -
0
-
Well put.IshmaelZ said:
We have no evidence - yet - as to how it pans out in a genuine 3rd world country. What we do seem to know is that a lot of deaths arise from the health system falling over, which doesn't bode well for India. Secondly, even if the age - fatality correlation holds in India, that just means that there will be more deaths among the oldest cohort. It doesn't mean that they will get away unscathed because oldest cohort in the West means 70s and 80s.geoffw said:
Looks pretty universal from what I have seen.IshmaelZ said:
You do this Gradgrindish facts are facts shtick but you are incapable of putting the simplest fact in its proper context. The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age IN THE POPULATIONS WE HAVE STUDIED. THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE.HYUFD said:
That's a yes then as gdp per capita in the Palestinian authority is well below the global average.
The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age, you may not like that but facts are facts
And anyway this whole argument depends on one of HYUFD's most magisterial bellyflops.
HYUFD
"Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast."
In reality, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=IN
Life expectancy in India - 69. (Confirmed by a million other sources).
Which neutralises the whole argument. It will just turn out that it is the over 60s who have a 10%+ death rate in India.
Facts, eh?
But there is the possibility that Covid19 mortality has to do more with age-in-years than age-relative-to-average-longevity. Just as other diseases of old age are less prevalent in countries with lower life expectancy. We don't know - but we'll be finding out before long, more's the pity.
1 -
Crucial question is do they mean he is receiving oxygen (grim) or on a ventilator (very, very grim)?Nigelb said:
I would guess that most admitted to hospital will be given oxygen initially, since they end up there because of low blood oxygen. Doesn't tell you much more about the severity for now.bigjohnowls said:
Bloody Hell.Foss said:
Although....bigjohnowls said:
IndeedFoss said:
If it was true then the newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5rXfOxvgVY&feature=youtu.be
(at around 48 seconds).
Hope he is going to get through this.
Foxy was giving him an 85% chance last night based on actuarial factors I think but hadnt factored in him needing oxygen.0 -
Indeed, but the airlines aren't going to be playing ball. They'll all have way too many aircraft, and those they do have will be worth nothing second hand. The lease companies and the banks who underwrite them are going to be in serious trouble. Many airlines are going to go bust and re-emerge as much smaller and leaner operations - including several national carriers. BA has been described for years as a flying pension scheme, they now have more retired pilots than currently flying employed pilots.Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that there is enormous pressure by EU governments to keep the Airbus orders rolling.eek said:
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.MaxPB said:
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?0 -
Yes you are correctMarqueeMark said:
Shadow Ministerial post....bigjohnowls said:I have a feeling my MP will get a Junior Ministerial post
0 -
Those Sky figures are dreadful.Foss said:The Queen got just under 24m.
https://twitter.com/lizo_mzimba/status/1247085739189428224
Burley and Boulton not cutting it with audiences0 -
So most of the country didn’t watch.Foss said:The Queen got just under 24m.
https://twitter.com/lizo_mzimba/status/12470857391894282240 -
Hopefully neitherIshmaelZ said:
Crucial question is do they mean he is receiving oxygen (grim) or on a ventilator (very, very grim)?Nigelb said:
I would guess that most admitted to hospital will be given oxygen initially, since they end up there because of low blood oxygen. Doesn't tell you much more about the severity for now.bigjohnowls said:
Bloody Hell.Foss said:
Although....bigjohnowls said:
IndeedFoss said:
If it was true then the newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5rXfOxvgVY&feature=youtu.be
(at around 48 seconds).
Hope he is going to get through this.
Foxy was giving him an 85% chance last night based on actuarial factors I think but hadnt factored in him needing oxygen.1 -
Almost certain that the UK has more actual infections per million than Austria.Stocky said:
According to Worldometer: compared to UK, Austria has twice as many cases per 1M of population yet only one third of the deaths per 1M of population. UK population density is much greater than Austria. Curious.Chris said:
Don't give me that bullshit. The article says nothing about the UK.TGOHF666 said:
Your post tells me you haven't read the article.Chris said:
Which tells me you have not the slightest clue about the vast gulf between the Austrian numbers and the British ones.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
Just look at the bloody figures. Maximum number of daily deaths in Austria ever recorded: 22.
How can anyone be so stupid?0 -
Heaven forfend what a tragedy.TheScreamingEagles said:
So most of the country didn’t watch.Foss said:The Queen got just under 24m.
https://twitter.com/lizo_mzimba/status/1247085739189428224
But I watched online for starters.2 -
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.0 -
A large section opinion will be very much against lift the lockdown whenever it comes - for a variety of reasons.kamski said:
Almost certain that the UK has more actual infections per million than Austria.Stocky said:
According to Worldometer: compared to UK, Austria has twice as many cases per 1M of population yet only one third of the deaths per 1M of population. UK population density is much greater than Austria. Curious.Chris said:
Don't give me that bullshit. The article says nothing about the UK.TGOHF666 said:
Your post tells me you haven't read the article.Chris said:
Which tells me you have not the slightest clue about the vast gulf between the Austrian numbers and the British ones.TGOHF666 said:Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
Just look at the bloody figures. Maximum number of daily deaths in Austria ever recorded: 22.
How can anyone be so stupid?0 -
RochdalePioneers said:
Fair enough. As a she I had visions of a Miss Trunchbull type of monster...kjh said:RochdalePioneers said:
She not he.kjh said:
HYUFD does not do logic so showing him a logical flaw by analogy is pointless. I have tried umpteen times by both doing this and also resorting to converting statements made into logical notation (so taking out the contention of the points and reducing to logical notation). He doesn't understand it. He can pick up lots of facts, which is really useful and interesting but is completely incapable of logical deduction or the implication of context.IshmaelZ said:
That's a no, then. And what on earth makes you think that you can read across from data about the first world and China to countries like India? What do you think of this argument: victims in China and Europe are predominantly yellow or white skinned; the vast majority of Indians are brown skinned; therefore India will be largely immune to the disease?HYUFD said:
The Palestinian authority, parts of Mauritius which were less wealthy but it is pre existing health conditions that impact on Covid 19 death rate only which are relevantIshmaelZ said:
Like, what, AIDS, malaria, TB, polio, dysentery, treatment resistant bacterial pneumonia, pollution-linked lung disease and malnutrition? To repeat a question I asked you the other day, have you ever been to any third world country?HYUFD said:
You only tend to need medical treatment on average if you are old or obese or with pre existing health conditions anywaySandpit said:
More than anything else, it's a lack of sufficient medical resources that determines the death rate. India is very much third world in this regard.HYUFD said:
It is high BMI and diabetes and cancer and heart conditions that increase your chances of dying from Covid 19, again those tend to be more diseases of age and of rich western nations and few Indians are obeseSandpit said:
That the average life expectancy in India is only 55, suggests that many people in their 40s and 50s are already seriously ill.HYUFD said:
Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.Sandpit said:
India, more so than anywhere else, is going to be completely screwed by this virus.kamski said:
India accounts for just 2% of China's foreign trade (3% of exports and 1% of imports - which just emphasises how little India has of anything that China wants or needs).HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, Macron, Abe, Modi and Trudeau have shown they will work with Trump when requiredCasino_Royale said:
Coordinating foreign and economic policy across the West and with India.logical_song said:
Just how eaxactly will Boris 'hold China to account'?Casino_Royale said:
China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.logical_song said:
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.
This might well depend on Trump losing the White House in November though.
But it is, tragically, currently led by an extreme far-right anti-democratic ethno-nationalist, so maybe that is why you are often so keen on India?
They can't enforce a lockdown, and they have some of the most densely populated cities on earth - with no running water or supermarkets, nor anything close to sufficient medical facilities.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast
It's only over 80s with a high death rate in Western countries with good medical systems - if this goes around India as it has everywhere else, it's not unreasonable to expect tens of millions of deaths.
I stand by my comments from weeks ago, that India will most likely have the highest death toll of any country when the virus is finally under control. He is definitely a he. If you are referring to a conversation of a few days ago you must have missed the end of it. The chair being a female was out of date. He was the vice chair and now the chair. Comments were made at the time by people re-evaluating their image of him when they thought he was a she. I have to say it has come as a shock to me when I have found I have assumed the gender incorrectly. Just wondering why I have made assumptions when I haven't had info explicitly telling me. I like to think I don't make those judgements, but clearly I do. 0 -
Not bad though. Close to Den and Ange back in the day.TheScreamingEagles said:So most of the country didn’t watch.
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I could easily see bailouts being made conditional on keeping Airbus orders. - either that or Airbus will need bailing out.Sandpit said:
Indeed, but the airlines aren't going to be playing ball. They'll all have way too many aircraft, and those they do have will be worth nothing second hand. The lease companies and the banks who underwrite them are going to be in serious trouble. Many airlines are going to go bust and re-emerge as much smaller and leaner operations - including several national carriers. BA has been described for years as a flying pension scheme, they now have more retired pilots than currently flying pilots.Malmesbury said:
I am quite sure that there is enormous pressure by EU governments to keep the Airbus orders rolling.eek said:
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.MaxPB said:
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?0 -
Six and a half million more than Leave managed, although I note that - crucially - the Leave vote beat the BBC comfortably.Foss said:The Queen got just under 24m.
https://twitter.com/lizo_mzimba/status/1247085739189428224
Even managed to beat the left wing "progressive" alliance of BBC1 + C4 + BBC News, in case anyone wants to start that game.0 -
"UK’s lockdown has gone too far, claims Sweden’s leading scientist"
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/05/uks-lockdown-gone-far-says-swedens-leading-scientist-12512763/0 -
Airbus has brought it summer holidays forward to now and talk of cut backs and economies, especially in Germany and France ongoingMalmesbury said:
I am quite sure that there is enormous pressure by EU governments to keep the Airbus orders rolling.eek said:
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.MaxPB said:
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?
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One passenger airport.TGOHF666 said:
Singapore has 2 airports and Changi has 4 terminals. Closing one of the 4 hardly seems like the apocalypse.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
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And low life expectancy is often linked to child mortality, and not an indicator of the number of old people. And where it does give an indicator of population age, it is due to poorer health in middle age - ie more comorbidity for COVID to attack.IshmaelZ said:
We have no evidence - yet - as to how it pans out in a genuine 3rd world country. What we do seem to know is that a lot of deaths arise from the health system falling over, which doesn't bode well for India. Secondly, even if the age - fatality correlation holds in India, that just means that there will be more deaths among the oldest cohort. It doesn't mean that they will get away unscathed because oldest cohort in the West means 70s and 80s.geoffw said:
Looks pretty universal from what I have seen.IshmaelZ said:
You do this Gradgrindish facts are facts shtick but you are incapable of putting the simplest fact in its proper context. The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age IN THE POPULATIONS WE HAVE STUDIED. THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE.HYUFD said:
That's a yes then as gdp per capita in the Palestinian authority is well below the global average.
The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age, you may not like that but facts are facts
And anyway this whole argument depends on one of HYUFD's most magisterial bellyflops.
HYUFD
"Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast."
In reality, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=IN
Life expectancy in India - 69. (Confirmed by a million other sources).
Which neutralises the whole argument. It will just turn out that it is the over 60s who have a 10%+ death rate in India.
Facts, eh?
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As a non-doctor - *I would assume* that oxygen would be given on the basis of reducing load on the lungs and hence the whole cardio-vascular system.Nigelb said:
I would guess that most admitted to hospital will be given oxygen initially, since they end up there because of low blood oxygen. Doesn't tell you much more about the severity for now.bigjohnowls said:
Bloody Hell.Foss said:
Although....bigjohnowls said:
IndeedFoss said:
If it was true then the newspapers would have names.bigjohnowls said:Looks like a Fib to me
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
Unconfirmed:
Several English Newspapers state that Boris Johnson is now receiving oxygen treatment 12 days after be tested positive for Coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5rXfOxvgVY&feature=youtu.be
(at around 48 seconds).
Hope he is going to get through this.
Foxy was giving him an 85% chance last night based on actuarial factors I think but hadnt factored in him needing oxygen.0 -
Boris's plight will have had a "shit got real" effect on that mindset - it certainly has on me (I'm a couple of years older than him). I have just had a call asking whether I mind treating my payment for a sailing expedition this summer, as payment for the same expedition in 2022. I thought that was grossly optimistic as regards both me, and the sailing.MarqueeMark said:
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.0 -
Are we going to have to face the spectacle of the press simultaneously demanding both a harder and softer lockdown at the same time?Andy_JS said:"UK’s lockdown has gone too far, claims Sweden’s leading scientist"
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/05/uks-lockdown-gone-far-says-swedens-leading-scientist-12512763/1 -
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My money is - literally - on him.bigjohnowls said:Bloody Hell.
Hope he is going to get through this.
Foxy was giving him an 85% chance last night based on actuarial factors I think but hadnt factored in him needing oxygen.
Laid 2020 exit date on Betfair at 4.5 this morning.0 -
This is great news for law firms that deal in contingency based work.
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'The press' does not often speak with one voice.Foss said:
Are we going to have to face the spectacle of the press simultaneously demanding both a harder and softer lockdown at the same time?Andy_JS said:"UK’s lockdown has gone too far, claims Sweden’s leading scientist"
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/05/uks-lockdown-gone-far-says-swedens-leading-scientist-12512763/0 -
The big issues will be travel insurance exclusions and conditions plus higher premiumsMarqueeMark said:
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....eek said:
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.MaxPB said:
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!CarlottaVance said:
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.1 -
You will have to face the spectacle of people writing articles in which they simultaneously complain that the lock down should have been earlier, later, stricter, less strict, shouldn't have happened at all and also accuse the government of changing direction too much.Foss said:
Are we going to have to face the spectacle of the press simultaneously demanding both a harder and softer lockdown at the same time?Andy_JS said:"UK’s lockdown has gone too far, claims Sweden’s leading scientist"
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/05/uks-lockdown-gone-far-says-swedens-leading-scientist-12512763/
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One counter suggestion on the efficicacy of lockdowns. If, as has been suggested, viral load is a key factor in clinical outcomes, is it possible that lockdown policies might both decrease overall case numbers, but increase death rates and even, potentially, numbers? Because lockdown reduces chances of getting the virus, but also removes much of the low risk transmission. People are getting in in hospitals or from repeated exposure from close family members. As opposed to low load transmission from fleeting acquaintances.1
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I'm afraid not. It's become more and more clear that the death rate data is almost as unreliable and unusable (in near-real-time) as the "detected cases" data.Philip_Thompson said:Does anyone know has @Andy_Cooke 's log chart of deaths per capita been updated in recent days? Or has anyone else done something comparable?
The French figures were swamped by a huge chunk of deaths declared the other day that had occurred over the preceding weeks (and indicated that there were likely more deaths that hadn't yet been found and declared - both there and in other countries). The UK data is also being revised for previous days and weeks (eg going up significantly when deaths in care homes and in peoples' homes are declared).
I reasoned that posting graphs would be a source of false precision - we all like to pore over graphs and if the data in them is somewhere between suspect and misleading, it would be irresponsible of me to post them.3
This discussion has been closed.