But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?
I am quite sure that there is enormous pressure by EU governments to keep the Airbus orders rolling.
Indeed, but the airlines aren't going to be playing ball. They'll all have way too many aircraft, and those they do have will be worth nothing second hand. The lease companies and the banks who underwrite them are going to be in serious trouble. Many airlines are going to go bust and re-emerge as much smaller and leaner operations - including several national carriers. BA has been described for years as a flying pension scheme, they now have more retired pilots than currently flying pilots.
I could easily see bailouts being made conditional on keeping Airbus orders. - either that or Airbus will need bailing out.
It will be the latter. The former is definitely illegal under EU state aid rules, and the airlines would rather start again than continue under a whole pile of commitments with an uncertain future ahead. Airbus could be 'bailed out with military orders.
In normal times yes, I'd argue for rich people who pay taxes. But these are not normal times, and the PL footballers come across as entitled and inflexible - when everyone else is bending over backwards to help out. None of them will go hungry if they don't get paid for three months.
The PL itself, and a number of clubs could be in serious financial difficulties if the season isn't completed with crowds in the stadia and the matches on Pay-TV. IMO we are most likely to see empty stadia and matches free to air.
Post GFC and bank bailout were not normal times either.
Were you supporting a "tax the rich" approach then?
Or did you prefer the "slash the welfare bill" one taken?
Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
Which tells me you have not the slightest clue about the vast gulf between the Austrian numbers and the British ones.
Your post tells me you haven't read the article.
Don't give me that bullshit. The article says nothing about the UK.
Just look at the bloody figures. Maximum number of daily deaths in Austria ever recorded: 22.
How can anyone be so stupid?
According to Worldometer: compared to UK, Austria has twice as many cases per 1M of population yet only one third of the deaths per 1M of population. UK population density is much greater than Austria. Curious.
Almost certain that the UK has more actual infections per million than Austria.
A large section opinion will be very much against lift the lockdown whenever it comes - for a variety of reasons.
It has to be done slowly bit by bit with constant monitoring and even tightening if required
Truth is social distancing is likely to be with us well into the autumn
Foxy was giving him an 85% chance last night based on actuarial factors I think but hadnt factored in him needing oxygen.
I would guess that most admitted to hospital will be given oxygen initially, since they end up there because of low blood oxygen. Doesn't tell you much more about the severity for now.
Crucial question is do they mean he is receiving oxygen (grim) or on a ventilator (very, very grim)?
Hopefully neither
Here (local German hospitals) if you are bad enough to be admitted, then you will generally be given oxygen. Most of these patients go home after a few days, especially if they are not very old nor have underlying conditions. Perhaps Foxys 85% chance of making it (which seems a bit low to me for someone otherwise in good health ) takes into account that he might be overweight? Or that we don't know if he has other conditions?
Does anyone know has @Andy_Cooke 's log chart of deaths per capita been updated in recent days? Or has anyone else done something comparable?
I'm afraid not. It's become more and more clear that the death rate data is almost as unreliable and unusable (in near-real-time) as the "detected cases" data.
The French figures were swamped by a huge chunk of deaths declared the other day that had occurred over the preceding weeks (and indicated that there were likely more deaths that hadn't yet been found and declared - both there and in other countries). The UK data is also being revised for previous days and weeks (eg going up significantly when deaths in care homes and in peoples' homes are declared).
I reasoned that posting graphs would be a source of false precision - we all like to pore over graphs and if the data in them is somewhere between suspect and misleading, it would be irresponsible of me to post them.
I thought that the UK numbers were only hospital deaths and that the ONS non Hospital ones were excluded even when known?
Foxy was giving him an 85% chance last night based on actuarial factors I think but hadnt factored in him needing oxygen.
I would guess that most admitted to hospital will be given oxygen initially, since they end up there because of low blood oxygen. Doesn't tell you much more about the severity for now.
Crucial question is do they mean he is receiving oxygen (grim) or on a ventilator (very, very grim)?
Hopefully neither
Here (local German hospitals) if you are bad enough to be admitted, then you will generally be given oxygen...
Which was my point. Until we're told more, you can't read all that much in to it.
If he'd been intubated, we'd know, as there would be no debate at all about whether he could carry on holding the office.
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.
The big issues will be travel insurance exclusions and conditions plus higher premiums
No point wasting money on travel insurance when you can just go onto Facebook and demand the Foreign Secretary sends a plane to rescue you.
If the worst should happen (and I sincerely hope it doesn’t) it should be Gove. Of all the press conference performances, Raab has been the weakest (not appalling but not a ship steadyer either.
Gove currently deals with the cabinet office so is currently co-ordinating across government so it would be a natural step up. I very much hope that it doesn’t come to that though.
In normal times yes, I'd argue for rich people who pay taxes. But these are not normal times, and the PL footballers come across as entitled and inflexible - when everyone else is bending over backwards to help out. None of them will go hungry if they don't get paid for three months.
The PL itself, and a number of clubs could be in serious financial difficulties if the season isn't completed with crowds in the stadia and the matches on Pay-TV. IMO we are most likely to see empty stadia and matches free to air.
Post GFC and bank bailout were not normal times either.
Were you supporting a "tax the rich" approach then?
Or did you prefer the "slash the welfare bill" one taken?
Except that the 'tax the rich' option is what was actually taken. The welfare bill fell as a side effect of getting a couple of million more people into work.
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?
I am quite sure that there is enormous pressure by EU governments to keep the Airbus orders rolling.
Indeed, but the airlines aren't going to be playing ball. They'll all have way too many aircraft, and those they do have will be worth nothing second hand. The lease companies and the banks who underwrite them are going to be in serious trouble. Many airlines are going to go bust and re-emerge as much smaller and leaner operations - including several national carriers. BA has been described for years as a flying pension scheme, they now have more retired pilots than currently flying pilots.
I could easily see bailouts being made conditional on keeping Airbus orders. - either that or Airbus will need bailing out.
It will be the latter. The former is definitely illegal under EU state aid rules, and the airlines would rather start again than continue under a whole pile of commitments with an uncertain future ahead. Airbus could be 'bailed out with military orders.
"illegal under EU state aid rules" - you owe me a new keyboard.
France and Germany see Airbus as a strategic European asset. Therefore it will be protected. Those pesky law things won't get in the way.
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.
Not sure Spain will be all that open until September at best.
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.
The big issues will be travel insurance exclusions and conditions plus higher premiums
No point wasting money on travel insurance when you can just go onto Facebook and demand the Foreign Secretary sends a plane to rescue you.
Austria have announced the beginning of the end of their lockdown.
Should imagine we will be a week or so behind this timeline.
Which tells me you have not the slightest clue about the vast gulf between the Austrian numbers and the British ones.
Your post tells me you haven't read the article.
Don't give me that bullshit. The article says nothing about the UK.
Just look at the bloody figures. Maximum number of daily deaths in Austria ever recorded: 22.
How can anyone be so stupid?
According to Worldometer: compared to UK, Austria has twice as many cases per 1M of population yet only one third of the deaths per 1M of population. UK population density is much greater than Austria. Curious.
Almost certain that the UK has more actual infections per million than Austria.
A large section opinion will be very much against lift the lockdown whenever it comes - for a variety of reasons.
It has to be done slowly bit by bit with constant monitoring and even tightening if required
Truth is social distancing is likely to be with us well into the autumn
Correct - but helps build confidence in the economy if the process can be described and begun.
The lockdown Nazis will begin the shrieking soon after.
Does anyone know has @Andy_Cooke 's log chart of deaths per capita been updated in recent days? Or has anyone else done something comparable?
I'm afraid not. It's become more and more clear that the death rate data is almost as unreliable and unusable (in near-real-time) as the "detected cases" data.
The French figures were swamped by a huge chunk of deaths declared the other day that had occurred over the preceding weeks (and indicated that there were likely more deaths that hadn't yet been found and declared - both there and in other countries). The UK data is also being revised for previous days and weeks (eg going up significantly when deaths in care homes and in peoples' homes are declared).
I reasoned that posting graphs would be a source of false precision - we all like to pore over graphs and if the data in them is somewhere between suspect and misleading, it would be irresponsible of me to post them.
I thought that the UK numbers were only hospital deaths and that the ONS non Hospital ones were excluded even when known?
Yes. I'd agree there are serious limitations on what we, as laymen, can do with the data. One hopes to be government scientists are in a position to separate out what is adjustment and what is genuine trend and act accordingly.
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.
Not sure Spain will be all that open until September at best.
Looks like a glass of beer in Vienna will be possible from June.
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.
The big issues will be travel insurance exclusions and conditions plus higher premiums
The big issue is whether the borders will be open.
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.
The big issues will be travel insurance exclusions and conditions plus higher premiums
No point wasting money on travel insurance when you can just go onto Facebook and demand the Foreign Secretary sends a plane to rescue you.
Recently they have been charging for them.
Yep, the rescue flights have all had charges attached to them, appear to have been arranged on a commercial basis by the FCO having chartered the planes. Many people in this part of the world complaining about it.
There really should be a more formal succession process for who becomes acting PM in the event the PM dies. Doesn't have to be a long list like in the US but why don't we just make the deputy PM role an official one like the vice president, rather than something that occasionally gets used then discarded.
We have recently experienced the horror show of having a Prime Minister who had lost the confidence of the House on the main issue of the day. We can't have a PM foisted on the House by appointment of their predecessor.
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
Indeed, hence Stelios roasting the board this morning.
The problem there is how do you get out of the contract - it's possible that by keeping the order Easyjet will get a bail out they otherwise wouldn't get.
Did Easyjet cancel their dividend or pay it?
I am quite sure that there is enormous pressure by EU governments to keep the Airbus orders rolling.
Indeed, but the airlines aren't going to be playing ball. They'll all have way too many aircraft, and those they do have will be worth nothing second hand. The lease companies and the banks who underwrite them are going to be in serious trouble. Many airlines are going to go bust and re-emerge as much smaller and leaner operations - including several national carriers. BA has been described for years as a flying pension scheme, they now have more retired pilots than currently flying pilots.
I could easily see bailouts being made conditional on keeping Airbus orders. - either that or Airbus will need bailing out.
It will be the latter. The former is definitely illegal under EU state aid rules, and the airlines would rather start again than continue under a whole pile of commitments with an uncertain future ahead. Airbus could be 'bailed out with military orders.
The problem with trying to bail out Airbus with military orders is that to would protect only a subset of the factories. Unless there is a military order for airliners.... cargo conversions might just do it... But then you have the political optics of military budget increases at this time....
Except that the 'tax the rich' option is what was actually taken. The welfare bill fell as a side effect of getting a couple of million more people into work.
There were very modest tax increases and there was a ruthless focus on the welfare bill. Indeed on cutting public spending in general outside of the NHS. We could have taken a very different approach. One far more in the spirit of these calls on PL footballers. We could have loaded the pain onto those with the broadest shoulders. We chose not to.
I must say that I am enjoying my lockdown today. I've made two unsuccessful trips to town to collect a prescription and will have to make a 3rd. Boots (a) running short opening and (b) decided to take an hour's lunch break after being open for just 2 hours.
But the easyJet board said they will bounce back in six months time!
Really, how likely are people to be willingly flying then.
You know, I think so many people have become addicted to their foreign trips - and they will feel after the lockdown, they DESERVE that trip to their favourite pub in Spain....
I expect things will bounceback far faster than is predicted. The modelling doesn't seem to remotely capture the "Ah, fuck it..." mentality of the many.
Boris's plight will have had a "shit got real" effect on that mindset - it certainly has on me (I'm a couple of years older than him). I have just had a call asking whether I mind treating my payment for a sailing expedition this summer, as payment for the same expedition in 2022. I thought that was grossly optimistic as regards both me, and the sailing.
That's a yes then as gdp per capita in the Palestinian authority is well below the global average. The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age, you may not like that but facts are facts
You do this Gradgrindish facts are facts shtick but you are incapable of putting the simplest fact in its proper context. The biggest factor in terms of likelihood to die from Covid 19 is age IN THE POPULATIONS WE HAVE STUDIED. THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE.
Looks pretty universal from what I have seen.
We have no evidence - yet - as to how it pans out in a genuine 3rd world country. What we do seem to know is that a lot of deaths arise from the health system falling over, which doesn't bode well for India. Secondly, even if the age - fatality correlation holds in India, that just means that there will be more deaths among the oldest cohort. It doesn't mean that they will get away unscathed because oldest cohort in the West means 70s and 80s.
And anyway this whole argument depends on one of HYUFD's most magisterial bellyflops.
HYUFD
"Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast."
When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate? This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.
The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.
Just how eaxactly will Boris 'hold China to account'?
Coordinating foreign and economic policy across the West and with India.
This might well depend on Trump losing the White House in November though.
Not necessarily, Macron, Abe, Modi and Trudeau have shown they will work with Trump when required
India accounts for just 2% of China's foreign trade (3% of exports and 1% of imports - which just emphasises how little India has of anything that China wants or needs).
But it is, tragically, currently led by an extreme far-right anti-democratic ethno-nationalist, so maybe that is why you are often so keen on India?
India, more so than anywhere else, is going to be completely screwed by this virus.
They can't enforce a lockdown, and they have some of the most densely populated cities on earth - with no running water or supermarkets, nor anything close to sufficient medical facilities.
Average life expectancy in India though is only 55 compared to 81 here and it is only over 80s who have a more than 10% death rate from Covid 19.
The death rate for 50 to 59 year olds is only 1.3% by contrast
That the average life expectancy in India is only 55, suggests that many people in their 40s and 50s are already seriously ill.
It's only over 80s with a high death rate in Western countries with good medical systems - if this goes around India as it has everywhere else, it's not unreasonable to expect tens of millions of deaths.
It is high BMI and diabetes and cancer and heart conditions that increase your chances of dying from Covid 19, again those tend to be more diseases of age and of rich western nations and few Indians are obese
More than anything else, it's a lack of sufficient medical resources that determines the death rate. India is very much third world in this regard.
I stand by my comments from weeks ago, that India will most likely have the highest death toll of any country when the virus is finally under control.
You only tend to need medical treatment on average if you are old or obese or with pre existing health conditions anyway
Like, what, AIDS, malaria, TB, polio, dysentery, treatment resistant bacterial pneumonia, pollution-linked lung disease and malnutrition? To repeat a question I asked you the other day, have you ever been to any third world country?
The Palestinian authority, parts of Mauritius which were less wealthy but it is pre existing health conditions that impact on Covid 19 death rate only which are relevant
That's a no, then. And what on earth makes you think that you can read across from data about the first world and China to countries like India? What do you think of this argument: victims in China and Europe are predominantly yellow or white skinned; the vast majority of Indians are brown skinned; therefore India will be largely immune to the disease?
HYUFD does not do logic so showing him a logical flaw by analogy is pointless. I have tried umpteen times by both doing this and also resorting to converting statements made into logical notation (so taking out the contention of the points and reducing to logical notation). He doesn't understand it. He can pick up lots of facts, which is really useful and interesting but is completely incapable of logical deduction or the implication of context.
No, you can dress up your viewpoints as unquestionable logical certainty however you want but that does not change the fact they are opinions until they turn into clear facts
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.
Not so much anybody getting a scalp as the CMO running full tilt into a tomahawk....
Twice.....
She should have realised an essential worker freelance journalist/photographer would be stalking her every movement...
Comments
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/austria-could-start-loosening-lockdown-from-april-14-2020-04-06
Were you supporting a "tax the rich" approach then?
Or did you prefer the "slash the welfare bill" one taken?
Truth is social distancing is likely to be with us well into the autumn
https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/police-were-stopping-cars-coventry-17438382?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=exchange
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_watched_television_broadcasts_in_the_United_Kingdom
And probably easily with the top 10 of this century, not far behind the 2012 Olympics opening & closing ceremonies.
Until we're told more, you can't read all that much in to it.
If he'd been intubated, we'd know, as there would be no debate at all about whether he could carry on holding the office.
Gove currently deals with the cabinet office so is currently co-ordinating across government so it would be a natural step up. I very much hope that it doesn’t come to that though.
France and Germany see Airbus as a strategic European asset. Therefore it will be protected. Those pesky law things won't get in the way.
The lockdown Nazis will begin the shrieking soon after.
All the lines seem to be "bending over" which is encouraging.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvqJ1mTkEuY
The evidence is only over 80s have a death rate over 10%, not 60s to 70s
essential workerfreelance journalist/photographer would be stalking her every movement...