Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happened on Betfair’s next PM market after news of Boris’
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happened on Betfair’s next PM market after news of Boris’s hospitalisation came out
There was similar movement on the Johnson exit date market. Raab is Johnson’s designated stand-in.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I'm not sure Raab's designated survivor status means very much but we shall see. The rest of the Cabinet might have a view on whether this means more than Raab chairing Cabinet till more permanent arrangements can be made.
Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.
Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?
I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.
This tweet from a Canadian doctor is worrying, and not just for the Prime Minister:
https://twitter.com/shanxonline/status/1246976779400753155?s=21
As research they carried out with the aid of US funding (which Trump stopped last year) showed, human exposure to bat coronaviruses is common.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection
... The pandemic “didn’t surprise us, unfortunately,” said Jonna Mazet, executive director of the One Health Institute in the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, who served as the global director of PREDICT for a decade. “The work had been ongoing for some time. And when the crisis hits, everybody stands up and takes notice and says, ‘OK, we believe you.’”
The PREDICT project, launched in response to the 2005 H5N1 “bird flu” scare, gathered specimens from more than 10,000 bats and 2,000 other mammals in search of dangerous viruses. They detected about 1,200 viruses that could spread from wild animals to humans, signaling pandemic potential. More than 160 of them were novel coronaviruses, much like SARS-CoV-2.
They also took blood samples from people in rural China, and learned that, in living among wildlife, they had been exposed to coronaviruses — a clear sign that, if those viruses spread easily among humans, they could take off. That “raised the red flag,” said Mazet.
“Coronaviruses were jumping easily across species lines and were ones to watch for epidemics and pandemics,” she said.
The program also trained nearly 7,000 people across medical and agricultural sectors in 30 countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East to help them detect deadly new viruses on their own. One of those labs was the Wuhan Institute of Virology — the Chinese lab that quickly identified SARS-CoV-2, Mazet said....
This is a market I have zero interest in betting on.
I was more amused by the idea his accent might outweigh his history.
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=21
Can't see past Raab or Gove, if Johnson needs to stand down. Sunak is still young and inexperienced, Hancock has his hands full with the day job and wouldn't want more responsibility, Starmer isn't going to be PM before a general election which is four years away.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hLHyLC2DqI
On Covid-19 Labour should continue its Corbynite strategy of being broadly supportive but looking after the workers, and sniping at the government where it has scientific and medical cover from the WHO or similar, for instance over 14 versus 7 days.
Is there a shadow secretary for paperclips ?
And I wonder how the PM’s self isolation has been managed, given that in normal times Downing Street doubles as fairly busy working offices.
Hope the PM recovers soon.
Japan-style premature easing notwithstanding, the reason everyone hasn't stopped it is because this thing has a two-week lag time for actions to prevent infections and a four-week lag time for actions to prevent deaths, and governments have a really hard time disrupting people's lives to solve a problem when that problem is merely manifesting as a line on a graph, rather than actual dead people.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1247032988992331778?s=09
The Koreans are doing some very good science on this. The question is whether these patients are shedding live virus or just dead viral fragments. Or did their tests go positive again just because of test to test variability?
She also has a fairly balanced approach to Israel/Palestine, which is an obsessive interest within the party.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
Best not to be arrogant with this bastard virus.
Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
Remarkably, she is.
The amount of rubbish being spread on social media and the vigilantism is quite disturbing. If you want to see herd mentality it's currently in strident form. Going outside does not 'per se' spread the virus and it's important for the nation's physical and mental wellbeing. Keep your distance, wear protective gear, but DO get out.
Two rather alarming news stories this morning.
1. The tiger that has tested positive in NYC.
2. South Korea's apparent discovery of re-infection. The latter is big trouble if it's corroborated. It would mean we become totally reliant on a cure or vaccine and not just immunity. We will have to await further tests on this.
"The huge stock of 17.5m antibody home testing kits ordered by the government after Boris Johnson said they could be a “game changer” could in fact be unreliable, scientists have said, saying that they may fail to detect up to half of coronavirus cases."
Edit: Plus it's not true that "If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood"
They certainly said that about the previous 3.5m order.
Looking at the best possible and demanding the moon yesterday has been the hallmark of all the media afaics.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
Sunak is a possibility but he's too short, relatively inexperienced and has his hands full being Chancellor.
Hancock is a possibility (he's immune and ran for leader before - and has had a good war) but I suspect the discontinuity in charge of the NHS at such a critical time would way against him.
The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.
Grim start to the week with Boris in hospital.
The antibody titre doesn't reach a maximum until some weeks after infection. if there's virus in the blood, it's a bloody peculiar virus and the antibody test doesn't check for virus RNA in the bloodstream anyway. Why would it?
But thanks for the clarification - it's a cock-up by the BBC and the Guardian account is merely garbled. As for diagnostic tests … that's why they are validated before being allowed on the market. Oh, and nothing is 100% certain. I will probably die eventually but that's all that is certain.
I still think I'm immortal, though.
So don't feel guilty or proud of commenting either way. It's a priced discussion of risk and outcomes, nothing more.
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.
The test is for viral RNA fragments, so it is not clear whether these are live viruses, and if they are live viruses whether it is reinfection or persisting virus within individuals. Potentially the latter could mean people becoming asymptomatic carriers.
In the UK we do not test recovered patients, unlike China and Korea. It is also useful if convalescent serum proves to be useful as treatment:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1247051295166361600?s=19
You may switch off your ethical compass, but you shouldn't browbeat others who feel rather more diffident. I know which kind of human being I prefer.
Mike got this spot on. Just the right level of nuance.
I don't believe the Chinese figures, but the certainty of those who think say they are out by an order of magnitude or so, is equally ridiculous.
Both the standouts in terms of calibre but for that reason I'm not sure the Cabinet would choose them. It might be difficult to dislodge them and there's one hell of a cat fight already going on. Hancock is massively ambitious and constantly doing his own thing. Tim Shipman yesterday in the Sunday Times was well worth a read.
Only for a few seconds. Yes, I'd have made a lot of money from the re-sale but my life isn't just about money making.
If you’re worried about somebody after your job give them health or education. Home Office a gamble - a potential graveyard but opportunity to be populist.