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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happened on Betfair’s next PM market after news of Boris’

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happened on Betfair’s next PM market after news of Boris’s hospitalisation came out

There was similar movement on the Johnson exit date market. Raab is Johnson’s designated stand-in.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,783
    Odd that Sunak does not dip below Raab.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    Get well soon, Boris.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    IshmaelZ said:

    Odd that Sunak does not dip below Raab.

    It is a bit odd, and even odder is that Starmer remains favourite but the market is illiquid with huge spreads between the buy and sell prices; but as OGH says, it seems a tad distasteful to get involved.

    I'm not sure Raab's designated survivor status means very much but we shall see. The rest of the Cabinet might have a view on whether this means more than Raab chairing Cabinet till more permanent arrangements can be made.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.

    Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.

    Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?

    I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.

    Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.

    Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?

    I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.

    If Hancock's recovered, of course, then he's pretty much guaranteed not to keel over from CV-19.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742

    So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.

    Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.

    Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?

    I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.

    Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Get well soon, Prime Minister.

    This tweet from a Canadian doctor is worrying, and not just for the Prime Minister:

    https://twitter.com/shanxonline/status/1246976779400753155?s=21
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    edited April 2020

    So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.

    Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.

    Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?

    I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.

    Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.
    Gove would be the second Scottish Premier of recent years, along with Gordon Brown, or the third if we remember Tony Blair was born and educated in Edinburgh.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    edited April 2020
    deleted
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,061
    edited April 2020
    (FPT)

    rcs1000 said:


    Perhaps it's not wet market related, but proximity to bats who tend to carry these kind of viruses that led to the lab being there?

    Also aside from bats specifically, IIUC the area has had a history of epidemics, so it seems like a reasonable place to put a lab that's studying them.
    Of course, but the lab has been there in some form since 1950.

    As research they carried out with the aid of US funding (which Trump stopped last year) showed, human exposure to bat coronaviruses is common.
    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection
    ... The pandemic “didn’t surprise us, unfortunately,” said Jonna Mazet, executive director of the One Health Institute in the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, who served as the global director of PREDICT for a decade. “The work had been ongoing for some time. And when the crisis hits, everybody stands up and takes notice and says, ‘OK, we believe you.’”

    The PREDICT project, launched in response to the 2005 H5N1 “bird flu” scare, gathered specimens from more than 10,000 bats and 2,000 other mammals in search of dangerous viruses. They detected about 1,200 viruses that could spread from wild animals to humans, signaling pandemic potential. More than 160 of them were novel coronaviruses, much like SARS-CoV-2.

    They also took blood samples from people in rural China, and learned that, in living among wildlife, they had been exposed to coronaviruses — a clear sign that, if those viruses spread easily among humans, they could take off. That “raised the red flag,” said Mazet.

    “Coronaviruses were jumping easily across species lines and were ones to watch for epidemics and pandemics,” she said.

    The program also trained nearly 7,000 people across medical and agricultural sectors in 30 countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East to help them detect deadly new viruses on their own. One of those labs was the Wuhan Institute of Virology — the Chinese lab that quickly identified SARS-CoV-2, Mazet said....

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,061

    Get well soon, Prime Minister.

    This tweet from a Canadian doctor is worrying, and not just for the Prime Minister:

    https://twitter.com/shanxonline/status/1246976779400753155?s=21

    Seconded.
    This is a market I have zero interest in betting on.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,239

    So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.

    Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.

    Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?

    I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.

    Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.
    He has a Scots accent?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,061

    So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.

    Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.

    Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?

    I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.

    Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.
    He has a Scots accent?
    Just about detectable, yes. Might sound a bit odd to a native, of course.

    I was more amused by the idea his accent might outweigh his history.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,061
    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,981
    Get well soon Prime Minister, sad news to wake up to this morning.

    Can't see past Raab or Gove, if Johnson needs to stand down. Sunak is still young and inexperienced, Hancock has his hands full with the day job and wouldn't want more responsibility, Starmer isn't going to be PM before a general election which is four years away.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,061
    Nigelb said:

    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.

    New cases in S Korea drop below 50.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,395

    So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.

    Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.

    Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?

    I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.

    Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.
    He has a Scots accent?
    Well he used to!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hLHyLC2DqI
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,451
    Nigelb said:

    Get well soon, Prime Minister.

    This tweet from a Canadian doctor is worrying, and not just for the Prime Minister:

    https://twitter.com/shanxonline/status/1246976779400753155?s=21

    Seconded.
    This is a market I have zero interest in betting on.
    No, no - everyone except the over-70s must get this for the good of the economy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,981

    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
    Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    Nigelb said:

    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.

    Yes, the government has declared that it *will not hesitate* to declare a state of emergency. Erm, maybe tomorrow.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
    Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.
    So what? As I suggested here when CMOgate first blew up, the good doctor would have to resign and it did not matter a damn. It is a bit like Boris saying he'd visit his dear old mum, except the partisans were on the other side. All small earthquake in Chile stuff.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
    Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.
    So what? As I suggested here when CMOgate first blew up, the good doctor would have to resign and it did not matter a damn. It is a bit like Boris saying he'd visit his dear old mum, except the partisans were on the other side. All small earthquake in Chile stuff.
    You think Boris should have resigned?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,162
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.

    New cases in S Korea drop below 50.
    Another reason why I'm still a bit sceptical of the sudden chorus of stories saying there MUST be 100s of thousands of deaths in China. South Korea has managed to keep its death toll to just 186 so far. No doubt that is an underestimate (just like everywhere else), but it seems to show that it is at least possible to contain it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    Sir Keith or whatever his name is was quick to back Hancock's threat to weld sunbathers into their cellars but the government has since toned it down. Starmer needs to remember Jo Swinson being trapped by her early off-the-cuff answers to unanticipated yet plainly foreseeable questions.

    On Covid-19 Labour should continue its Corbynite strategy of being broadly supportive but looking after the workers, and sniping at the government where it has scientific and medical cover from the WHO or similar, for instance over 14 versus 7 days.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
    Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.
    So what? As I suggested here when CMOgate first blew up, the good doctor would have to resign and it did not matter a damn. It is a bit like Boris saying he'd visit his dear old mum, except the partisans were on the other side. All small earthquake in Chile stuff.
    You think Boris should have resigned?
    Not over that.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
    RLB seems to be missing from the appointments.

    Is there a shadow secretary for paperclips ?


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    Just a question on self isolation with symptoms. As this is a disease with affects the lungs/respiratory system, isn’t there benefits to getting fresh air for those cooped up in flats?

    And I wonder how the PM’s self isolation has been managed, given that in normal times Downing Street doubles as fairly busy working offices.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,225
    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
    RLB seems to be missing from the appointments.

    Is there a shadow secretary for paperclips
    Maybe she just doesn't want one. ATM, anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hope the PM recovers soon.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.

    New cases in S Korea drop below 50.
    Another reason why I'm still a bit sceptical of the sudden chorus of stories saying there MUST be 100s of thousands of deaths in China. South Korea has managed to keep its death toll to just 186 so far. No doubt that is an underestimate (just like everywhere else), but it seems to show that it is at least possible to contain it.
    Yup, I think the key point is that the stuff that you end up doing to stop it going from 100,000 cases to 200,000 cases is mostly the same as the stuff that you could have done earlier to stop it going from 100 to 200 cases.

    Japan-style premature easing notwithstanding, the reason everyone hasn't stopped it is because this thing has a two-week lag time for actions to prevent infections and a four-week lag time for actions to prevent deaths, and governments have a really hard time disrupting people's lives to solve a problem when that problem is merely manifesting as a line on a graph, rather than actual dead people.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,814
    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615

    So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.

    PS This also applies to a situation where Boris's health is seriously deteriorating, but he still thinks he may recover. Better to tap William Hague or somebody from outside the Commons to keep his seat warm rather than hand it over to Raab or another ambitious cabinet rival who may refuse to give it back.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,596
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.

    New cases in S Korea drop below 50.
    Though this is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1247032988992331778?s=09

    The Koreans are doing some very good science on this. The question is whether these patients are shedding live virus or just dead viral fragments. Or did their tests go positive again just because of test to test variability?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    edited April 2020
    MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    Perhaps her policy ideas around home and society is why she is shadow foreign secretary.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Well said Mike: perfectly put in every way.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,239
    MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    Quite a bit to say about Scotland.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    Quite a bit to say about Scotland.
    So nothing to do with her new job. Looks like she's been kicked into the long grass.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,596
    MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    I suppose Brexit is foreign policy now.

    She also has a fairly balanced approach to Israel/Palestine, which is an obsessive interest within the party.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.

    He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,981
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.

    New cases in S Korea drop below 50.
    Though this is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1247032988992331778?s=09

    The Koreans are doing some very good science on this. The question is whether these patients are shedding live virus or just dead viral fragments. Or did their tests go positive again just because of test to test variability?
    Could this be an issue with unreliable testing? As everyone’s rushed to make new tests for this virus, they appear to be somewhat variable in accuracy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,814
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.

    New cases in S Korea drop below 50.
    Though this is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1247032988992331778?s=09

    The Koreans are doing some very good science on this. The question is whether these patients are shedding live virus or just dead viral fragments. Or did their tests go positive again just because of test to test variability?
    Could this be an issue with unreliable testing? As everyone’s rushed to make new tests for this virus, they appear to be somewhat variable in accuracy.
    ALso relevant is whether the reinfection is as debilitating as first time around. There are plenty of sicknesses where carriers are not harmed themselves, but can infect others.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    When he fully recovers Boris might be

    'If'

    Best not to be arrogant with this bastard virus.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,239
    TGOHF666 said:

    MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    Quite a bit to say about Scotland.
    So nothing to do with her new job. Looks like she's been kicked into the long grass.
    Hoo, didn't think I'd get one for the keep net so quickly.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,909
    On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."

    Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,814
    TGOHF666 said:

    MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    Quite a bit to say about Scotland.
    So nothing to do with her new job. Looks like she's been kicked into the long grass.
    Not if the SNP get their way :-) .
  • MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    She’s tried to have it both ways on Israel, which doesn’t augur terribly well. Presumably the point was to keep her away from anything to do with small towns policy.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited April 2020
    Despite raising the prospect this time yesterday I couldn't bring myself to bet on this market. It just felt immoral for me personally. I wish Boris a speedy recovery.

    The amount of rubbish being spread on social media and the vigilantism is quite disturbing. If you want to see herd mentality it's currently in strident form. Going outside does not 'per se' spread the virus and it's important for the nation's physical and mental wellbeing. Keep your distance, wear protective gear, but DO get out.

    Two rather alarming news stories this morning.

    1. The tiger that has tested positive in NYC.

    2. South Korea's apparent discovery of re-infection. The latter is big trouble if it's corroborated. It would mean we become totally reliant on a cure or vaccine and not just immunity. We will have to await further tests on this.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,981
    edited April 2020
    CD13 said:

    On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."

    Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.

    All of the above, most likely. Journalists with a science or medical background (and scientists with media training) must be pulling their hair out at the quality of reporting and questioning.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,162
    edited April 2020
    CD13 said:

    On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."

    Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.

    Quite easy to check what the Guardian actually says:

    "The huge stock of 17.5m antibody home testing kits ordered by the government after Boris Johnson said they could be a “game changer” could in fact be unreliable, scientists have said, saying that they may fail to detect up to half of coronavirus cases."

    Edit: Plus it's not true that "If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
    Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.
    Not so much anybody getting a scalp as the CMO running full tilt into a tomahawk....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,814
    edited April 2020
    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."

    Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.

    All of the above, most likely. Journalists with a science or medical background (and scientists with media training) must be pulling their hair out at the quality of reporting and questioning.
    I thought there was a condition on the order that they were subject to testing and being effective.

    They certainly said that about the previous 3.5m order.

    Looking at the best possible and demanding the moon yesterday has been the hallmark of all the media afaics.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,005

    When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.

    He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.

    'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?
    This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,474
    Isn't it more significant that he has appointed someone more Brexit friendly to the position than he is?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,596

    Despite raising the prospect this time yesterday I couldn't bring myself to bet on this market. It just felt immoral for me personally. I wish Boris a speedy recovery.

    The amount of rubbish being spread on social media and the vigilantism is quite disturbing. If you want to see herd mentality it's currently in strident form. Going outside does not 'per se' spread the virus and it's important for the nation's physical and mental wellbeing. Keep your distance, wear protective gear, but DO get out.

    Two rather alarming news stories this morning.

    1. The tiger that has tested positive in NYC.

    2. South Korea's apparent discovery of re-infection. The latter is big trouble if it's corroborated. It would mean we become totally reliant on a cure or vaccine and not just immunity. We will have to await further tests on this.

    2, South Korea has not discovered evidence of reinfection, though that is not impossible. It has detected cases where the viral antigen test has become positive again. There are a variety of possibilities why this maybe so.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."

    Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.

    All of the above, most likely. Journalists with a science or medical background (and scientists with media training) must be pulling their hair out at the quality of reporting and questioning.
    I thought there was a condition on the order that they were subject to testing and being effective.

    They certainly said that about the previous 3.5m order.
    Other Covid orders for equipment, supplies which are still "in design" have been placed with the proviso that the equipment will pass certain quality and safety requirements.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Gove at 20/1 or Hunt at 25/1 would be my picks for an emergency PM.

    Sunak is a possibility but he's too short, relatively inexperienced and has his hands full being Chancellor.

    Hancock is a possibility (he's immune and ran for leader before - and has had a good war) but I suspect the discontinuity in charge of the NHS at such a critical time would way against him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526

    Crikey. I didn't know Dame Vera Lynn was still alive.

    Remarkably, she is.

    There's an awful lot of people she's promised to meet again, looking at the clock thinking "Crikey, she's REALLY running late...."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.

    He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.

    'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?
    This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
    China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.

    The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,541
    Happy new tax year, everyone
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,814
    edited April 2020
    alex_ said:

    Just a question on self isolation with symptoms. As this is a disease with affects the lungs/respiratory system, isn’t there benefits to getting fresh air for those cooped up in flats?

    And I wonder how the PM’s self isolation has been managed, given that in normal times Downing Street doubles as fairly busy working offices.

    I thought he had been quarantined in the flat. Though to be complimentary to Boris, he hasn't done the Churchill Dictation in the Bath thing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,608
    Morning all.

    Grim start to the week with Boris in hospital.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,909
    Mr Kamski,

    The antibody titre doesn't reach a maximum until some weeks after infection. if there's virus in the blood, it's a bloody peculiar virus and the antibody test doesn't check for virus RNA in the bloodstream anyway. Why would it?

    But thanks for the clarification - it's a cock-up by the BBC and the Guardian account is merely garbled. As for diagnostic tests … that's why they are validated before being allowed on the market. Oh, and nothing is 100% certain. I will probably die eventually but that's all that is certain.

    I still think I'm immortal, though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    There's nothing moral or immoral about betting markets, regardless of the factors, and people price in actuarial risk and mortality all the time. Indeed, this has been a subject of more regular debate on the US presidential race with so many relatively elderly candidates.

    So don't feel guilty or proud of commenting either way. It's a priced discussion of risk and outcomes, nothing more.

    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,596
    edited April 2020
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.

    New cases in S Korea drop below 50.
    Though this is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1247032988992331778?s=09

    The Koreans are doing some very good science on this. The question is whether these patients are shedding live virus or just dead viral fragments. Or did their tests go positive again just because of test to test variability?
    Could this be an issue with unreliable testing? As everyone’s rushed to make new tests for this virus, they appear to be somewhat variable in accuracy.
    Yes, false negatives are common.

    The test is for viral RNA fragments, so it is not clear whether these are live viruses, and if they are live viruses whether it is reinfection or persisting virus within individuals. Potentially the latter could mean people becoming asymptomatic carriers.

    In the UK we do not test recovered patients, unlike China and Korea. It is also useful if convalescent serum proves to be useful as treatment:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1247051295166361600?s=19

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,869
    MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    Foreign Sec is traditionally the post you give to the young ambitious up-and-comer, to maximise the time they have to spend away and hence make it harder to plot against the leader. Does the same apply to Shadow Foreign Sec? Nandy doesn't really seem the type, but I suppose Starmer will know her a lot better than I do.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,915




    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    No "we" don't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    IanB2 said:

    Happy new tax year, everyone

    What is this "tax" of which you speak? Asking for a Chancellor...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    There's nothing moral or immoral about betting markets,

    No, but there is plenty moral and immoral about those who use them.

    You may switch off your ethical compass, but you shouldn't browbeat others who feel rather more diffident. I know which kind of human being I prefer.

    Mike got this spot on. Just the right level of nuance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,061
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Japan expected to declare state of emergency.

    New cases in S Korea drop below 50.
    Another reason why I'm still a bit sceptical of the sudden chorus of stories saying there MUST be 100s of thousands of deaths in China. South Korea has managed to keep its death toll to just 186 so far. No doubt that is an underestimate (just like everywhere else), but it seems to show that it is at least possible to contain it.
    Agreed.
    I don't believe the Chinese figures, but the certainty of those who think say they are out by an order of magnitude or so, is equally ridiculous.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,205
    CD13 said:

    Mr Kamski,

    The antibody titre doesn't reach a maximum until some weeks after infection. if there's virus in the blood, it's a bloody peculiar virus and the antibody test doesn't check for virus RNA in the bloodstream anyway. Why would it?

    But thanks for the clarification - it's a cock-up by the BBC and the Guardian account is merely garbled. As for diagnostic tests … that's why they are validated before being allowed on the market. Oh, and nothing is 100% certain. I will probably die eventually but that's all that is certain.

    I still think I'm immortal, though.

    I am trying the remember when the Guardian got a technical story right. I expect better of the BBC.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    Foreign Sec is traditionally the post you give to the young ambitious up-and-comer, to maximise the time they have to spend away and hence make it harder to plot against the leader.
    How did that work out in the case of Boris? Asking for a former recent Prime Minister...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,615

    There's nothing moral or immoral about betting markets, regardless of the factors, and people price in actuarial risk and mortality all the time. Indeed, this has been a subject of more regular debate on the US presidential race with so many relatively elderly candidates.

    So don't feel guilty or proud of commenting either way. It's a priced discussion of risk and outcomes, nothing more.

    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    I'd put that point more strongly: Markets provide information. In crisis situations, and life-and-death situations, it's really important to have information. Betting on markets like this is a public service.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,061

    There's nothing moral or immoral about betting markets, regardless of the factors, and people price in actuarial risk and mortality all the time. Indeed, this has been a subject of more regular debate on the US presidential race with so many relatively elderly candidates.

    So don't feel guilty or proud of commenting either way. It's a priced discussion of risk and outcomes, nothing more.

    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    I agree with you. iI've just no interest in betting on this one.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Gove at 20/1 or Hunt at 25/1 would be my picks for an emergency PM.

    .


    Both the standouts in terms of calibre but for that reason I'm not sure the Cabinet would choose them. It might be difficult to dislodge them and there's one hell of a cat fight already going on. Hancock is massively ambitious and constantly doing his own thing. Tim Shipman yesterday in the Sunday Times was well worth a read.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
    They just had to remove even that small joy.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Back in January when I could see what might be coming and ordered my filtration mask at £9.99 I did think for a few seconds about ordering 200 of them.

    Only for a few seconds. Yes, I'd have made a lot of money from the re-sale but my life isn't just about money making.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    MattW said:

    alex_ said:

    Just a question on self isolation with symptoms. As this is a disease with affects the lungs/respiratory system, isn’t there benefits to getting fresh air for those cooped up in flats?

    And I wonder how the PM’s self isolation has been managed, given that in normal times Downing Street doubles as fairly busy working offices.

    I thought he had been quarantined in the flat. Though to be complimentary to Boris, he hasn't done the Churchill Dictation in the Bath thing.
    Dunno where Boris was but last Thursday he clapped the carers from Number 11. Unless he fancied stretching his legs, he may have been using an office there or the flat which is larger than Number 10's (so Blair used it for his young family; not sure about Cameron but there is a Sun video iirc).
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.

    As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.

    Did she say much about Foreign Policy?

    Foreign Sec is traditionally the post you give to the young ambitious up-and-comer, to maximise the time they have to spend away and hence make it harder to plot against the leader. Does the same apply to Shadow Foreign Sec? Nandy doesn't really seem the type, but I suppose Starmer will know her a lot better than I do.
    Really? I thought it was the post you gave to the experienced old hand, people with gravitas, long-standing international connections, very safe pair of hands etc etc. It’s quite an easy place to build up a reputation for being “Prime Ministerial”.

    If you’re worried about somebody after your job give them health or education. Home Office a gamble - a potential graveyard but opportunity to be populist.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720

    When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.

    He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.

    'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?
    This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
    What a strange lack of understanding to think that both of those things were solely a feature of UK history and actions.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Dura_Ace said:




    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    No "we" don't.
    beneath contempt
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    Dura_Ace said:




    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    No "we" don't.
    I see the first slug is out on PB this morning.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,608
    Johnson in hospital and the market is up 3% in first few minutes of trading.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,953

    Dura_Ace said:




    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    No "we" don't.
    beneath contempt
    Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Dura_Ace said:




    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    No "we" don't.
    Seriously?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526

    MattW said:

    alex_ said:

    Just a question on self isolation with symptoms. As this is a disease with affects the lungs/respiratory system, isn’t there benefits to getting fresh air for those cooped up in flats?

    And I wonder how the PM’s self isolation has been managed, given that in normal times Downing Street doubles as fairly busy working offices.

    I thought he had been quarantined in the flat. Though to be complimentary to Boris, he hasn't done the Churchill Dictation in the Bath thing.
    Dunno where Boris was but last Thursday he clapped the carers from Number 11. Unless he fancied stretching his legs, he may have been using an office there or the flat which is larger than Number 10's (so Blair used it for his young family; not sure about Cameron but there is a Sun video iirc).
    Whichever he has used, it will be having one hell of a deep clean whilst he's away....
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720

    It has been overlooked given the later news, but the country is really going to miss the Queen when anno domini eventually catches up with her. Her address was masterly.

    Yes - Ive never been massively interested in th monarchy but was uncharactersitically moved to tears watching her last night. It was extraordinary. Don't think, we'll see her like again in most folk's lifetime.
  • At my desk. Huge sense of deja-vu as every day kind of feels the same.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Dura_Ace said:




    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    No "we" don't.
    beneath contempt
    Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.
    That's a curious suggestion. If a racist said it was their honestly held view that black people's natural state was to be subservient to white people I'd feel pretty comfortable calling them contemptible.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Dura_Ace said:




    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    No "we" don't.
    beneath contempt
    Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.
    In which case allow me to say honestly that those who wish ill health on others are more worthless than dog shit.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720

    Dura_Ace said:




    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    No "we" don't.
    beneath contempt
    Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.
    Oh it is when it reveals that level of nastiness.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.
    Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.
    Not so much anybody getting a scalp as the CMO running full tilt into a tomahawk....
    Twice.....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Dura_Ace said:




    And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.

    No "we" don't.
    beneath contempt
    Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.
    In which case allow me to say honestly that those who wish ill health on others are more worthless than dog shit.
    Seconded
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,005
    felix said:

    When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.

    He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.

    'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?
    This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
    What a strange lack of understanding to think that both of those things were solely a feature of UK history and actions.
    As usual you completely miss the point.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,953

    At my desk. Huge sense of deja-vu as every day kind of feels the same.

    Do you wake up at 6am every day to Sonny & Cher?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,742
    felix said:

    It has been overlooked given the later news, but the country is really going to miss the Queen when anno domini eventually catches up with her. Her address was masterly.

    Yes - Ive never been massively interested in th monarchy but was uncharactersitically moved to tears watching her last night. It was extraordinary. Don't think, we'll see her like again in most folk's lifetime.
    Has HMQ had the royal minces lasered? No glasses to read the autocue.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,005

    When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.

    He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.

    'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?
    This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
    China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.

    The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.
    Just how eaxactly will Boris 'hold China to account'?
This discussion has been closed.