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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happened on Betfair’s next PM market after news of Boris’s hospitalisation came out
There was similar movement on the Johnson exit date market. Raab is Johnson’s designated stand-in.
Comments
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Odd that Sunak does not dip below Raab.0
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Get well soon, Boris.0
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It is a bit odd, and even odder is that Starmer remains favourite but the market is illiquid with huge spreads between the buy and sell prices; but as OGH says, it seems a tad distasteful to get involved.IshmaelZ said:Odd that Sunak does not dip below Raab.
I'm not sure Raab's designated survivor status means very much but we shall see. The rest of the Cabinet might have a view on whether this means more than Raab chairing Cabinet till more permanent arrangements can be made.0 -
So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.
Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.
Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?
I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.0 -
If Hancock's recovered, of course, then he's pretty much guaranteed not to keel over from CV-19.edmundintokyo said:So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.
Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.
Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?
I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.0 -
Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.edmundintokyo said:So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.
Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.
Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?
I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.2 -
Get well soon, Prime Minister.
This tweet from a Canadian doctor is worrying, and not just for the Prime Minister:
https://twitter.com/shanxonline/status/1246976779400753155?s=210 -
Gove would be the second Scottish Premier of recent years, along with Gordon Brown, or the third if we remember Tony Blair was born and educated in Edinburgh.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.edmundintokyo said:So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.
Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.
Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?
I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.0 -
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(FPT)
Of course, but the lab has been there in some form since 1950.edmundintokyo said:
Also aside from bats specifically, IIUC the area has had a history of epidemics, so it seems like a reasonable place to put a lab that's studying them.rcs1000 said:
Perhaps it's not wet market related, but proximity to bats who tend to carry these kind of viruses that led to the lab being there?
As research they carried out with the aid of US funding (which Trump stopped last year) showed, human exposure to bat coronaviruses is common.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection
... The pandemic “didn’t surprise us, unfortunately,” said Jonna Mazet, executive director of the One Health Institute in the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, who served as the global director of PREDICT for a decade. “The work had been ongoing for some time. And when the crisis hits, everybody stands up and takes notice and says, ‘OK, we believe you.’”
The PREDICT project, launched in response to the 2005 H5N1 “bird flu” scare, gathered specimens from more than 10,000 bats and 2,000 other mammals in search of dangerous viruses. They detected about 1,200 viruses that could spread from wild animals to humans, signaling pandemic potential. More than 160 of them were novel coronaviruses, much like SARS-CoV-2.
They also took blood samples from people in rural China, and learned that, in living among wildlife, they had been exposed to coronaviruses — a clear sign that, if those viruses spread easily among humans, they could take off. That “raised the red flag,” said Mazet.
“Coronaviruses were jumping easily across species lines and were ones to watch for epidemics and pandemics,” she said.
The program also trained nearly 7,000 people across medical and agricultural sectors in 30 countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East to help them detect deadly new viruses on their own. One of those labs was the Wuhan Institute of Virology — the Chinese lab that quickly identified SARS-CoV-2, Mazet said....
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Seconded.AlastairMeeks said:Get well soon, Prime Minister.
This tweet from a Canadian doctor is worrying, and not just for the Prime Minister:
https://twitter.com/shanxonline/status/1246976779400753155?s=21
This is a market I have zero interest in betting on.1 -
He has a Scots accent?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.edmundintokyo said:So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.
Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.
Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?
I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.1 -
Just about detectable, yes. Might sound a bit odd to a native, of course.Theuniondivvie said:
He has a Scots accent?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.edmundintokyo said:So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.
Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.
Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?
I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.
I was more amused by the idea his accent might outweigh his history.
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Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=210 -
Japan expected to declare state of emergency.0
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Get well soon Prime Minister, sad news to wake up to this morning.
Can't see past Raab or Gove, if Johnson needs to stand down. Sunak is still young and inexperienced, Hancock has his hands full with the day job and wouldn't want more responsibility, Starmer isn't going to be PM before a general election which is four years away.1 -
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=210 -
Well he used to!Theuniondivvie said:
He has a Scots accent?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Gove is not good at detail if his time at Education is any guide where he got bogged down in the minutiae of the history syllabus, and demanded that every school should be above average. On the plus side, his mild Scots accent might reassure the nation.edmundintokyo said:So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.
Gove might work, he's experienced and good at detail but hopefully beatable as he looks like Pob. But you could see him digging in, seems risky.
Maybe look outside the Commons, they don't matter much if they can't meet. William Hague?
I'd say lay everyone on that list except maybe Hancock.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hLHyLC2DqI0 -
No, no - everyone except the over-70s must get this for the good of the economy.Nigelb said:
Seconded.AlastairMeeks said:Get well soon, Prime Minister.
This tweet from a Canadian doctor is worrying, and not just for the Prime Minister:
https://twitter.com/shanxonline/status/1246976779400753155?s=21
This is a market I have zero interest in betting on.0 -
Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=210 -
Yes, the government has declared that it *will not hesitate* to declare a state of emergency. Erm, maybe tomorrow.Nigelb said:Japan expected to declare state of emergency.
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So what? As I suggested here when CMOgate first blew up, the good doctor would have to resign and it did not matter a damn. It is a bit like Boris saying he'd visit his dear old mum, except the partisans were on the other side. All small earthquake in Chile stuff.Sandpit said:
Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=210 -
You think Boris should have resigned?DecrepiterJohnL said:
So what? As I suggested here when CMOgate first blew up, the good doctor would have to resign and it did not matter a damn. It is a bit like Boris saying he'd visit his dear old mum, except the partisans were on the other side. All small earthquake in Chile stuff.Sandpit said:
Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=210 -
Another reason why I'm still a bit sceptical of the sudden chorus of stories saying there MUST be 100s of thousands of deaths in China. South Korea has managed to keep its death toll to just 186 so far. No doubt that is an underestimate (just like everywhere else), but it seems to show that it is at least possible to contain it.Nigelb said:1 -
Sir Keith or whatever his name is was quick to back Hancock's threat to weld sunbathers into their cellars but the government has since toned it down. Starmer needs to remember Jo Swinson being trapped by her early off-the-cuff answers to unanticipated yet plainly foreseeable questions.
On Covid-19 Labour should continue its Corbynite strategy of being broadly supportive but looking after the workers, and sniping at the government where it has scientific and medical cover from the WHO or similar, for instance over 14 versus 7 days.0 -
Not over that.tlg86 said:
You think Boris should have resigned?DecrepiterJohnL said:
So what? As I suggested here when CMOgate first blew up, the good doctor would have to resign and it did not matter a damn. It is a bit like Boris saying he'd visit his dear old mum, except the partisans were on the other side. All small earthquake in Chile stuff.Sandpit said:
Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=210 -
RLB seems to be missing from the appointments.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=21
Is there a shadow secretary for paperclips ?
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Just a question on self isolation with symptoms. As this is a disease with affects the lungs/respiratory system, isn’t there benefits to getting fresh air for those cooped up in flats?
And I wonder how the PM’s self isolation has been managed, given that in normal times Downing Street doubles as fairly busy working offices.0 -
Maybe she just doesn't want one. ATM, anyway.TGOHF666 said:
RLB seems to be missing from the appointments.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=21
Is there a shadow secretary for paperclips
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Good morning, everyone.
Hope the PM recovers soon.0 -
Yup, I think the key point is that the stuff that you end up doing to stop it going from 100,000 cases to 200,000 cases is mostly the same as the stuff that you could have done earlier to stop it going from 100 to 200 cases.kamski said:
Another reason why I'm still a bit sceptical of the sudden chorus of stories saying there MUST be 100s of thousands of deaths in China. South Korea has managed to keep its death toll to just 186 so far. No doubt that is an underestimate (just like everywhere else), but it seems to show that it is at least possible to contain it.Nigelb said:
Japan-style premature easing notwithstanding, the reason everyone hasn't stopped it is because this thing has a two-week lag time for actions to prevent infections and a four-week lag time for actions to prevent deaths, and governments have a really hard time disrupting people's lives to solve a problem when that problem is merely manifesting as a line on a graph, rather than actual dead people.0 -
Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?0 -
PS This also applies to a situation where Boris's health is seriously deteriorating, but he still thinks he may recover. Better to tap William Hague or somebody from outside the Commons to keep his seat warm rather than hand it over to Raab or another ambitious cabinet rival who may refuse to give it back.edmundintokyo said:So the cabinet decides, yes? Half of them want to be leader, so they don't want someone who's going to stick around. Ideally, Someone who will retire of their own accord, failing that someone they can beat.
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Though this is interesting:Nigelb said:
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1247032988992331778?s=09
The Koreans are doing some very good science on this. The question is whether these patients are shedding live virus or just dead viral fragments. Or did their tests go positive again just because of test to test variability?0 -
Perhaps her policy ideas around home and society is why she is shadow foreign secretary.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?
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Well said Mike: perfectly put in every way.0
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Quite a bit to say about Scotland.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?0 -
So nothing to do with her new job. Looks like she's been kicked into the long grass.Theuniondivvie said:
Quite a bit to say about Scotland.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?0 -
I suppose Brexit is foreign policy now.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?
She also has a fairly balanced approach to Israel/Palestine, which is an obsessive interest within the party.1 -
When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.0 -
Could this be an issue with unreliable testing? As everyone’s rushed to make new tests for this virus, they appear to be somewhat variable in accuracy.Foxy said:
Though this is interesting:Nigelb said:
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1247032988992331778?s=09
The Koreans are doing some very good science on this. The question is whether these patients are shedding live virus or just dead viral fragments. Or did their tests go positive again just because of test to test variability?0 -
ALso relevant is whether the reinfection is as debilitating as first time around. There are plenty of sicknesses where carriers are not harmed themselves, but can infect others.Sandpit said:
Could this be an issue with unreliable testing? As everyone’s rushed to make new tests for this virus, they appear to be somewhat variable in accuracy.Foxy said:
Though this is interesting:Nigelb said:
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1247032988992331778?s=09
The Koreans are doing some very good science on this. The question is whether these patients are shedding live virus or just dead viral fragments. Or did their tests go positive again just because of test to test variability?0 -
'If'Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be
Best not to be arrogant with this bastard virus.0 -
Hoo, didn't think I'd get one for the keep net so quickly.TGOHF666 said:
So nothing to do with her new job. Looks like she's been kicked into the long grass.Theuniondivvie said:
Quite a bit to say about Scotland.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?0 -
On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."
Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.0 -
Not if the SNP get their way :-) .TGOHF666 said:
So nothing to do with her new job. Looks like she's been kicked into the long grass.Theuniondivvie said:
Quite a bit to say about Scotland.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?0 -
Crikey. I didn't know Dame Vera Lynn was still alive.
Remarkably, she is.6 -
She’s tried to have it both ways on Israel, which doesn’t augur terribly well. Presumably the point was to keep her away from anything to do with small towns policy.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?
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Despite raising the prospect this time yesterday I couldn't bring myself to bet on this market. It just felt immoral for me personally. I wish Boris a speedy recovery.
The amount of rubbish being spread on social media and the vigilantism is quite disturbing. If you want to see herd mentality it's currently in strident form. Going outside does not 'per se' spread the virus and it's important for the nation's physical and mental wellbeing. Keep your distance, wear protective gear, but DO get out.
Two rather alarming news stories this morning.
1. The tiger that has tested positive in NYC.
2. South Korea's apparent discovery of re-infection. The latter is big trouble if it's corroborated. It would mean we become totally reliant on a cure or vaccine and not just immunity. We will have to await further tests on this.
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All of the above, most likely. Journalists with a science or medical background (and scientists with media training) must be pulling their hair out at the quality of reporting and questioning.CD13 said:On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."
Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.0 -
Quite easy to check what the Guardian actually says:CD13 said:On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."
Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
"The huge stock of 17.5m antibody home testing kits ordered by the government after Boris Johnson said they could be a “game changer” could in fact be unreliable, scientists have said, saying that they may fail to detect up to half of coronavirus cases."
Edit: Plus it's not true that "If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood"0 -
Not so much anybody getting a scalp as the CMO running full tilt into a tomahawk....Sandpit said:
Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=213 -
I thought there was a condition on the order that they were subject to testing and being effective.Sandpit said:
All of the above, most likely. Journalists with a science or medical background (and scientists with media training) must be pulling their hair out at the quality of reporting and questioning.CD13 said:On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."
Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
They certainly said that about the previous 3.5m order.
Looking at the best possible and demanding the moon yesterday has been the hallmark of all the media afaics.1 -
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.0 -
Isn't it more significant that he has appointed someone more Brexit friendly to the position than he is?0
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2, South Korea has not discovered evidence of reinfection, though that is not impossible. It has detected cases where the viral antigen test has become positive again. There are a variety of possibilities why this maybe so.Mysticrose said:Despite raising the prospect this time yesterday I couldn't bring myself to bet on this market. It just felt immoral for me personally. I wish Boris a speedy recovery.
The amount of rubbish being spread on social media and the vigilantism is quite disturbing. If you want to see herd mentality it's currently in strident form. Going outside does not 'per se' spread the virus and it's important for the nation's physical and mental wellbeing. Keep your distance, wear protective gear, but DO get out.
Two rather alarming news stories this morning.
1. The tiger that has tested positive in NYC.
2. South Korea's apparent discovery of re-infection. The latter is big trouble if it's corroborated. It would mean we become totally reliant on a cure or vaccine and not just immunity. We will have to await further tests on this.2 -
Other Covid orders for equipment, supplies which are still "in design" have been placed with the proviso that the equipment will pass certain quality and safety requirements.MattW said:
I thought there was a condition on the order that they were subject to testing and being effective.Sandpit said:
All of the above, most likely. Journalists with a science or medical background (and scientists with media training) must be pulling their hair out at the quality of reporting and questioning.CD13 said:On the BBC website, the newspaper review states … "The 17.5m home antibody testing kits ordered by the government could be "unreliable", according to the Guardian. The paper says they may fail to detect the virus in up to half of milder cases - the group they are intended for."
Colour me confused. If you're testing for the antibody, there shouldn't be any virus left in the person's blood The BBC isn't what it used to be and they have an Oxford arts graduate doing the review. Or else it's possible the Guardian doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
They certainly said that about the previous 3.5m order.
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Gove at 20/1 or Hunt at 25/1 would be my picks for an emergency PM.
Sunak is a possibility but he's too short, relatively inexperienced and has his hands full being Chancellor.
Hancock is a possibility (he's immune and ran for leader before - and has had a good war) but I suspect the discontinuity in charge of the NHS at such a critical time would way against him.0 -
There's an awful lot of people she's promised to meet again, looking at the clock thinking "Crikey, she's REALLY running late...."Casino_Royale said:Crikey. I didn't know Dame Vera Lynn was still alive.
Remarkably, she is.2 -
China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.logical_song said:
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.3 -
Happy new tax year, everyone2
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I thought he had been quarantined in the flat. Though to be complimentary to Boris, he hasn't done the Churchill Dictation in the Bath thing.alex_ said:Just a question on self isolation with symptoms. As this is a disease with affects the lungs/respiratory system, isn’t there benefits to getting fresh air for those cooped up in flats?
And I wonder how the PM’s self isolation has been managed, given that in normal times Downing Street doubles as fairly busy working offices.1 -
Morning all.
Grim start to the week with Boris in hospital.0 -
Mr Kamski,
The antibody titre doesn't reach a maximum until some weeks after infection. if there's virus in the blood, it's a bloody peculiar virus and the antibody test doesn't check for virus RNA in the bloodstream anyway. Why would it?
But thanks for the clarification - it's a cock-up by the BBC and the Guardian account is merely garbled. As for diagnostic tests … that's why they are validated before being allowed on the market. Oh, and nothing is 100% certain. I will probably die eventually but that's all that is certain.
I still think I'm immortal, though.1 -
There's nothing moral or immoral about betting markets, regardless of the factors, and people price in actuarial risk and mortality all the time. Indeed, this has been a subject of more regular debate on the US presidential race with so many relatively elderly candidates.
So don't feel guilty or proud of commenting either way. It's a priced discussion of risk and outcomes, nothing more.
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.2 -
Yes, false negatives are common.Sandpit said:
Could this be an issue with unreliable testing? As everyone’s rushed to make new tests for this virus, they appear to be somewhat variable in accuracy.Foxy said:
Though this is interesting:Nigelb said:
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1247032988992331778?s=09
The Koreans are doing some very good science on this. The question is whether these patients are shedding live virus or just dead viral fragments. Or did their tests go positive again just because of test to test variability?
The test is for viral RNA fragments, so it is not clear whether these are live viruses, and if they are live viruses whether it is reinfection or persisting virus within individuals. Potentially the latter could mean people becoming asymptomatic carriers.
In the UK we do not test recovered patients, unlike China and Korea. It is also useful if convalescent serum proves to be useful as treatment:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1247051295166361600?s=19
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Foreign Sec is traditionally the post you give to the young ambitious up-and-comer, to maximise the time they have to spend away and hence make it harder to plot against the leader. Does the same apply to Shadow Foreign Sec? Nandy doesn't really seem the type, but I suppose Starmer will know her a lot better than I do.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?1 -
No "we" don't.Casino_Royale said:
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.-3 -
What is this "tax" of which you speak? Asking for a Chancellor...IanB2 said:Happy new tax year, everyone
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It has been overlooked given the later news, but the country is really going to miss the Queen when anno domini eventually catches up with her. Her address was masterly.7
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No, but there is plenty moral and immoral about those who use them.Casino_Royale said:There's nothing moral or immoral about betting markets,
You may switch off your ethical compass, but you shouldn't browbeat others who feel rather more diffident. I know which kind of human being I prefer.
Mike got this spot on. Just the right level of nuance.0 -
Agreed.kamski said:
Another reason why I'm still a bit sceptical of the sudden chorus of stories saying there MUST be 100s of thousands of deaths in China. South Korea has managed to keep its death toll to just 186 so far. No doubt that is an underestimate (just like everywhere else), but it seems to show that it is at least possible to contain it.Nigelb said:
I don't believe the Chinese figures, but the certainty of those who think say they are out by an order of magnitude or so, is equally ridiculous.0 -
I am trying the remember when the Guardian got a technical story right. I expect better of the BBC.CD13 said:Mr Kamski,
The antibody titre doesn't reach a maximum until some weeks after infection. if there's virus in the blood, it's a bloody peculiar virus and the antibody test doesn't check for virus RNA in the bloodstream anyway. Why would it?
But thanks for the clarification - it's a cock-up by the BBC and the Guardian account is merely garbled. As for diagnostic tests … that's why they are validated before being allowed on the market. Oh, and nothing is 100% certain. I will probably die eventually but that's all that is certain.
I still think I'm immortal, though.2 -
How did that work out in the case of Boris? Asking for a former recent Prime Minister...Endillion said:
Foreign Sec is traditionally the post you give to the young ambitious up-and-comer, to maximise the time they have to spend away and hence make it harder to plot against the leader.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?0 -
I'd put that point more strongly: Markets provide information. In crisis situations, and life-and-death situations, it's really important to have information. Betting on markets like this is a public service.Casino_Royale said:There's nothing moral or immoral about betting markets, regardless of the factors, and people price in actuarial risk and mortality all the time. Indeed, this has been a subject of more regular debate on the US presidential race with so many relatively elderly candidates.
So don't feel guilty or proud of commenting either way. It's a priced discussion of risk and outcomes, nothing more.
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.1 -
I agree with you. iI've just no interest in betting on this one.Casino_Royale said:There's nothing moral or immoral about betting markets, regardless of the factors, and people price in actuarial risk and mortality all the time. Indeed, this has been a subject of more regular debate on the US presidential race with so many relatively elderly candidates.
So don't feel guilty or proud of commenting either way. It's a priced discussion of risk and outcomes, nothing more.
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.0 -
Casino_Royale said:
Gove at 20/1 or Hunt at 25/1 would be my picks for an emergency PM.
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Both the standouts in terms of calibre but for that reason I'm not sure the Cabinet would choose them. It might be difficult to dislodge them and there's one hell of a cat fight already going on. Hancock is massively ambitious and constantly doing his own thing. Tim Shipman yesterday in the Sunday Times was well worth a read.
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They just had to remove even that small joy.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=210 -
Back in January when I could see what might be coming and ordered my filtration mask at £9.99 I did think for a few seconds about ordering 200 of them.
Only for a few seconds. Yes, I'd have made a lot of money from the re-sale but my life isn't just about money making.
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Dunno where Boris was but last Thursday he clapped the carers from Number 11. Unless he fancied stretching his legs, he may have been using an office there or the flat which is larger than Number 10's (so Blair used it for his young family; not sure about Cameron but there is a Sun video iirc).MattW said:
I thought he had been quarantined in the flat. Though to be complimentary to Boris, he hasn't done the Churchill Dictation in the Bath thing.alex_ said:Just a question on self isolation with symptoms. As this is a disease with affects the lungs/respiratory system, isn’t there benefits to getting fresh air for those cooped up in flats?
And I wonder how the PM’s self isolation has been managed, given that in normal times Downing Street doubles as fairly busy working offices.0 -
Really? I thought it was the post you gave to the experienced old hand, people with gravitas, long-standing international connections, very safe pair of hands etc etc. It’s quite an easy place to build up a reputation for being “Prime Ministerial”.Endillion said:
Foreign Sec is traditionally the post you give to the young ambitious up-and-comer, to maximise the time they have to spend away and hence make it harder to plot against the leader. Does the same apply to Shadow Foreign Sec? Nandy doesn't really seem the type, but I suppose Starmer will know her a lot better than I do.MattW said:Sir Kevin's appointment of Lisa Nandy to Foreign Secretary interests me.
As I read her campaign, her policy innovations were more around things at home and in society.
Did she say much about Foreign Policy?
If you’re worried about somebody after your job give them health or education. Home Office a gamble - a potential graveyard but opportunity to be populist.0 -
What a strange lack of understanding to think that both of those things were solely a feature of UK history and actions.logical_song said:
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.1 -
beneath contemptDura_Ace said:
No "we" don't.Casino_Royale said:
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.3 -
I see the first slug is out on PB this morning.Dura_Ace said:
No "we" don't.Casino_Royale said:
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.1 -
Johnson in hospital and the market is up 3% in first few minutes of trading.0
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Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.squareroot2 said:
beneath contemptDura_Ace said:
No "we" don't.Casino_Royale said:
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.0 -
Seriously?Dura_Ace said:
No "we" don't.Casino_Royale said:
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.
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Whichever he has used, it will be having one hell of a deep clean whilst he's away....DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno where Boris was but last Thursday he clapped the carers from Number 11. Unless he fancied stretching his legs, he may have been using an office there or the flat which is larger than Number 10's (so Blair used it for his young family; not sure about Cameron but there is a Sun video iirc).MattW said:
I thought he had been quarantined in the flat. Though to be complimentary to Boris, he hasn't done the Churchill Dictation in the Bath thing.alex_ said:Just a question on self isolation with symptoms. As this is a disease with affects the lungs/respiratory system, isn’t there benefits to getting fresh air for those cooped up in flats?
And I wonder how the PM’s self isolation has been managed, given that in normal times Downing Street doubles as fairly busy working offices.0 -
Yes - Ive never been massively interested in th monarchy but was uncharactersitically moved to tears watching her last night. It was extraordinary. Don't think, we'll see her like again in most folk's lifetime.AlastairMeeks said:It has been overlooked given the later news, but the country is really going to miss the Queen when anno domini eventually catches up with her. Her address was masterly.
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At my desk. Huge sense of deja-vu as every day kind of feels the same.0
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That's a curious suggestion. If a racist said it was their honestly held view that black people's natural state was to be subservient to white people I'd feel pretty comfortable calling them contemptible.Beibheirli_C said:
Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.squareroot2 said:
beneath contemptDura_Ace said:
No "we" don't.Casino_Royale said:
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.4 -
In which case allow me to say honestly that those who wish ill health on others are more worthless than dog shit.Beibheirli_C said:
Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.squareroot2 said:
beneath contemptDura_Ace said:
No "we" don't.Casino_Royale said:
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.2 -
Oh it is when it reveals that level of nastiness.Beibheirli_C said:
Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.squareroot2 said:
beneath contemptDura_Ace said:
No "we" don't.Casino_Royale said:
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.2 -
Twice.....MarqueeMark said:
Not so much anybody getting a scalp as the CMO running full tilt into a tomahawk....Sandpit said:
Just catching up on the weekend's news, it seems they got something of a scalp in Scotland yesterday.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Sun's politics coverage is often surprisingly good but this is lightweight drivel because Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were not sacked by Starmer, having announced their own resignations last year.TGOHF666 said:Meanwhile the purges continue
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1247031368300875776?s=211 -
SecondedBluestBlue said:
In which case allow me to say honestly that those who wish ill health on others are more worthless than dog shit.Beibheirli_C said:
Hypocrisy is contemptible, not honesty.squareroot2 said:
beneath contemptDura_Ace said:
No "we" don't.Casino_Royale said:
And we all wish Boris a full and complete recovery.3 -
As usual you completely miss the point.felix said:
What a strange lack of understanding to think that both of those things were solely a feature of UK history and actions.logical_song said:
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.0 -
Do you wake up at 6am every day to Sonny & Cher?RochdalePioneers said:At my desk. Huge sense of deja-vu as every day kind of feels the same.
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Has HMQ had the royal minces lasered? No glasses to read the autocue.felix said:
Yes - Ive never been massively interested in th monarchy but was uncharactersitically moved to tears watching her last night. It was extraordinary. Don't think, we'll see her like again in most folk's lifetime.AlastairMeeks said:It has been overlooked given the later news, but the country is really going to miss the Queen when anno domini eventually catches up with her. Her address was masterly.
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Just how eaxactly will Boris 'hold China to account'?Casino_Royale said:
China are responsible for failing to put their own house in order, lying about it and then spreading propaganda and misinformation worldwide.logical_song said:
'Hold China to account' - Are you suggesting it was deliberate?Casino_Royale said:When he fully recovers Boris might be even more determined to hold China to account.
He will have been close to the abyss and it will be personal.
This could open a whole can of worms. Some may want to hold the UK to account for slavery or the industrial revolution.
The UK stuff is a lot of left-wing piss and wind.0
