politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a
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Anneliese Dodds, Shadow Chancellor
Lisa Nandy, Shadow Foreign Secretary
Nick Thomas-Symonds, Shadow Home Secretary
Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster0 -
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.0 -
I wouldn't have expected someone to leave as Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy select committee chair to be Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
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Burgon is a graduate of St. John's College, Cambridge. Degree classification unknown, but he must have gotten something.ydoethur said:
No idea. Pretty sure somebody who makes the same mistakes repeatedly and appears to be incapable of remembering basic facts or formulating simple sentences doesn’t have a high one. I genuinely am puzzled that he got into Cambridge.bigjohnowls said:
Thanks ydoethur.ydoethur said:
I think he said we had twelve thousand, and didn’t need thirty thousand any more but didn’t say how many we were expected to need. It wasn’t easy to tell because he was getting so confused.bigjohnowls said:Has Hancock given a figure for the number of ventilators we have and need, this morning?
12,000 is almost double what we had in ICU wards a month ago and a good 4,000 up on the total including in Theatres. So that's good progress if we already have 12,000.
What's Burgons IQ BTW?
I see you mentioned him departing will lead to a significant increase.
Just interested to know, thanks in advance.
Mine is 144, if you’re particularly interested.
Now that's an enigma worthy of Pierre de Fermat...0 -
Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.kinabalu said:
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.1 -
I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:oxfordsimon said:
Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.Scott_xP said:
As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
Dodds - Scotland
NTS - Wales
Nandy - North of England
Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)
Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.1 -
If his parents had called him Kevin, he wouldn't have got the job.kinabalu said:
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.0 -
So that is yet another vital job she wants the Police to be doing when clearly there are no other priorities. I do hope 'nitpicking' of this sort is not the new level of 'opposition' we can expect. As for the digs at Hancock. Haters gonna hate.oxfordsimon said:0 -
She needs to speak to ber bossoxfordsimon said:
. Starmer was very clear this morning that he backed HMG on this1 -
If my feelings, as a Liberal throughout the 70's and 80's, and a LD thereafter are any guide, what has done for the LibDems is the Coalition. Their principles appear to have been walked all over, either because Cameron and Osborne were much more ruthless than they seemed at first, or because their Cabinet Ministers were inadequate.ydoethur said:
No. Lots of things did for the Liberals. They were blamed for the length and damage of the First World War (unfairly, but every party in power in 1914 was swiftly removed during the war or immediately afterwards). They were hampered by changes to the franchise which gave the vote to women (who voted Conservative) and younger men (who tended to vote Labour). They were also severely damaged by a series of splits - most pertinently the intensely personal one between Lloyd George and Asquith, which reduced them to third party status in 1918. The wipeout of the Irish Nationalists and the granting of an Irish Parliament from 1922 were more aftershocks than causes of the decline.No_Offence_Alan said:
Isn't that what did for the Liberals? They had support from the Irish Nationalists for their Home Rule policy, then lost power after Ireland got Home Rule?Black_Rook said:
As ever, a recipe for a catastrophic mess. The main enablers for a Labour minority are likely to be the SNP, who will insist on a second referendum.Mexicanpete said:
Not entirely sure the usual rules apply, such was Corbyn's toxicity. The inability to recapture Scotland is a massive and likely insurmountable hurdle for any future Labour majority to be reached. A minority Labour Government sans Corbyn is not beyond possibility next time.ydoethur said:
No, it’s a 10% swing required.SirNorfolkPassmore said:One thing Starmer has is that the way the cards fall, the 124th seat isn't ridiculously safe (5.25% swing required). A 6% swing would probably deliver a reasonable majority.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
This is target 124:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_North_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The SNP hold it by 49% to 28%.
A 5.25% takes Filton and Bradley Stoke, target no. 59. That would still be a greater swing than Thatcher managed.
As TSE has pointed out Covid-19 changes everything, and to who's advantage is anyone's guess.
The UK Government could very well end up trying to negotiate the dissolution of the UK with the SNP, whilst being propped up (until the point that this is completed) by... the SNP.
But it’s worth remembering after 1885 the Liberals only won one election in their own strength (1906) - and that was when sometimes as many as three Unionists standing in one constituency for one vote.
Or both.
Unless something changes very radically, looks like Starmer's Labour for me.
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Gives her a profile and keeps her on the outside. Doesn't sound like he actually wants her contribution to the domestic agenda - but also doesn't want to be seen to exclude her completely.kle4 said:
Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.kinabalu said:
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
Where will RLB end up?0 -
Hillary Benn and Yvette Cooper I think who might have been obvious choices for the shadow cabinet hold key positions as head of important select committees so might not end up with jobs .0
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Yes. So perhaps not 250k. But still very much a 6 digit number unless the estimates of mortality rate are way too high.paulyork64 said:I think the hope is that by spreading the 3m hospital admissions over a longer period the health service never gets overwhelmed and the number of deaths is lower. I cant pretend to know the numbers tho.
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Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.ydoethur said:
I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:oxfordsimon said:
Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.Scott_xP said:
As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
Dodds - Scotland
NTS - Wales
Nandy - North of England
Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)
Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.1 -
I cannot critise them as of now and do not want to sound churlishkinabalu said:
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.1 -
I stand to be corrected, but wasn't Ernie Bevin a success as Foreign Sec?kle4 said:
Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.kinabalu said:
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.0 -
The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.oxfordsimon said:
Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.ydoethur said:
I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:oxfordsimon said:
Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.Scott_xP said:
As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
Dodds - Scotland
NTS - Wales
Nandy - North of England
Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)
Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.0 -
Gove is, IIRC, the ministerial lead on Brexit now that DExEU has been wound up.AndreaParma_82 said:I wouldn't have expected someone to leave as Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy select committee chair to be Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
This has to be the answer, surely?1 -
They have Towns in foreign countries I believe.kle4 said:
Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.kinabalu said:
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
Perhaps she could talk about those.0 -
What’s happened in Scotland is very similar to what happened in the film Contagion.0
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Glad to know she's such an expert on these matters.HYUFD said:1 -
Glad to know she's such an expert on these matters.HYUFD said:1 -
Yes, at the cost of splitting the Labour Party.OldKingCole said:
I stand to be corrected, but wasn't Ernie Bevin a success as Foreign Sec?kle4 said:
Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.kinabalu said:
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.0 -
Very possibly - but having Dodds in this role won't help win a single vote in Scotland.ydoethur said:
The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.oxfordsimon said:
Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.ydoethur said:
I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:oxfordsimon said:
Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.Scott_xP said:
As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
Dodds - Scotland
NTS - Wales
Nandy - North of England
Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)
Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.0 -
Most curves seem to be "bending over".
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I would have said, frankly, that she’s unlikely to win Labour a single vote anywhere. But she may surprise on the upside.oxfordsimon said:
Very possibly - but having Dodds in this role won't help win a single vote in Scotland.ydoethur said:
The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.oxfordsimon said:
Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.ydoethur said:
I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:oxfordsimon said:
Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.Scott_xP said:
As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
Dodds - Scotland
NTS - Wales
Nandy - North of England
Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)
Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.1 -
One could argue that he had more of an impact as Minister of Labour during WWII.OldKingCole said:
I stand to be corrected, but wasn't Ernie Bevin a success as Foreign Sec?kle4 said:
Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.kinabalu said:
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
One can have a great career in foreign affairs - but Nandy is one of the clearest thinkers they have got on the domestic agenda. It is a waste to have her focus overseas0 -
Yes, there are no easy or pain-free options out there but the compelling argument for me is the ability of the medical services and authorities to have coped with a large number of cases caused by failing to taking adequate measures to try to contain the virus.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am sadly of the opinion that more people will die in Britain as a direct or indirect consequence of the lockdown and the shredding of the economy than will die as a result of CV-19. We already know that people are dying because of disruption to their treatment, because of suicides and because they are alone with no one to look after them.
The trouble is that saying more will die as a result of the 'cure' compared to the disease does not take into account what would have happened if we had not instigated the 'cure'. I am inclined to believe the ICL numbers about how many would have died without a lockdown. But I am still uncomfortable with the fact that we are, to large extent, acting as if the lockdown is victimless.
It recalls an argument I remember being heard in late 2008 to justify bailing out the banks with pubic money. Yes, it might have been better for poorly-run banks to fail but the scenes of people queuing to get their money and the likely social disorder of a run on the banks would have been unsupportable.
Sometimes the consequence of doing "what's best" in the long term are too unpalatable in the short term so more immediate measures are taken which have shorter term benefits but do not mitigate the longer term risks.
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Many, yes, but I'm doubtful about "most".another_richard said:Its likely that most of the 250,000 deaths over the next 18 months would have died anyway.
A bit brutal but has to be considered.0 -
She is recommending that we follow WHO guidance, which is 14 days. It is not a completely daft idea.oxfordsimon said:
https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1246113809632309262?s=190 -
'Only' 525 fatalities in Italy today - lowest since March 19th (about 10 days into their lockdown). Still quite a lot of new cases reported (4300), but I wonder if they are picking up milder cases. But still good news overall.0
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Wish I'd bet on Dodds, she was the only realistic choice all along and keeps all wings of the party happy.0
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Having said what I did, couldn't Bevin be, somewhat difficult to work with.ydoethur said:
Yes, at the cost of splitting the Labour Party.OldKingCole said:
I stand to be corrected, but wasn't Ernie Bevin a success as Foreign Sec?kle4 said:
Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.kinabalu said:
It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.oxfordsimon said:Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.
But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.0 -
Will all Swedish COVID-19 deaths be fake news by the western media?Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Emily Thornberry will stay in the Shadow cabinet in a new role.0
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It feels to me like Labour has one chance to do well this time around, and that is to own the narrative around the recovery phase from this pandemic. There’s a way to link in to some of the “forgotten towns” and “forgotten key workers” narrative.0
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Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.bigjohnowls said:Scary times.
I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.
Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?
I presume some PBers could identify them if not.0 -
"On Saturday 4 April, the total number of deaths reported at University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation Trust in the West Midlands almost doubled, from 102 to 203. Today it reported an additional 11 deaths."
I suspect that this was catch up data rather than a true doubling, but should make for a touch of caution in those closely following the numbers.
https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article0 -
Do you think we are capable of implementing such a regime though?ABZ said:I think the answer is South Korea! They have managed to control the spread really well and new infections are ticking along in the background. As long as it stays in control (i.e., contacts are traced rapidly upon someone being infected) and testing is high there's no reason to assume it will become unmanageable.
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The only market I saw was Betfair's where there was absolutely no liquidity and everyone was at 1.03.Artist said:Wish I'd bet on Dodds, she was the only realistic choice all along and keeps all wings of the party happy.
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98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.kinabalu said:
Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.bigjohnowls said:Scary times.
I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.
Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?
I presume some PBers could identify them if not.
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How often does that occur? It's possible that the government and their advisors decided seven days was good enough for a balance between protecting others and allowing people to get out. Less relevant with the lockdown now though.Foxy said:
She is recommending that we follow WHO guidance, which is 14 days. It is not a completely daft idea.oxfordsimon said:
https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1246113809632309262?s=190 -
A minor mental leap from 'all Swedish murders by Islamic immigrants covered up by the western media' for these dudes.Stark_Dawning said:
Will all Swedish COVID-19 deaths be fake news by the western media?Theuniondivvie said:0 -
I noted AndyJS giving up his modelling because of the numbers....Foxy said:"On Saturday 4 April, the total number of deaths reported at University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation Trust in the West Midlands almost doubled, from 102 to 203. Today it reported an additional 11 deaths."
I suspect that this was catch up data rather than a true doubling, but should make for a touch of caution in those closely following the numbers.
https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article
We are all just making it up as we go along.... basically
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It may be that as we depart the EU the role of Foreign Secretary could once again regain the relevance and importance it once enjoyed.oxfordsimon said:
One could argue that he had more of an impact as Minister of Labour during WWII.
One can have a great career in foreign affairs - but Nandy is one of the clearest thinkers they have got on the domestic agenda. It is a waste to have her focus overseas
Lisa Nandy is well placed to be the leader after Starmer - could the 2029 GE see PM Rishi Sunak challenged by LOTO Lisa Nandy?
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Rayner is Labour Party "Chair".0
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As expected, Angela Rayner will also be party chair (Lavery's current role)0
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I'm sure the CMO and his advisors aren't. Just because data is difficult to interpret, doesn't mean it can't be interpreted.tyson said:
I noted AndyJS giving up his modelling because of the numbers....Foxy said:"On Saturday 4 April, the total number of deaths reported at University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation Trust in the West Midlands almost doubled, from 102 to 203. Today it reported an additional 11 deaths."
I suspect that this was catch up data rather than a true doubling, but should make for a touch of caution in those closely following the numbers.
https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article
We are all just making it up as we go along.... basically0 -
https://twitter.com/DrMatthewSweet/status/1246814355964006400
Re fake news and 5G, interesting to remember that "Dr" Naomi Wolf was an adviser to Bill Clinton (and later to Al Gore). Anyone care to comment on Belfast's "3G clear air"?0 -
So if we're lucky and it turns out that - say - 75% can get it, show no symptoms and still get immunity (or are inherently immune ab initio), then your figures become 30m x 25% x 10% = 750k hospitalised, and 30m x 25% x 0.8% = 60k deaths.kinabalu said:
How I did it was herd immunity needs 30m infected.Endillion said:What proportion of asymptomatic cases are you assuming?
10% need hospital and 0.8% die.
That's how we manage. It only works if the "iceberg" theory turns out to be right, but the first mass antibody tests should show this one way or the other. We'll probably have a pretty good idea by the end of the month, one way or another.0 -
Is that the third day of dropping numbers?ABZ said:'Only' 525 fatalities in Italy today - lowest since March 19th (about 10 days into their lockdown). Still quite a lot of new cases reported (4300), but I wonder if they are picking up milder cases. But still good news overall.
In other news:
https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1246834696182366209?s=090 -
Yes, I'd think so - at some point we'll be talking Brexit again, and this will then be a key role. Reeves is generally acknowledged to be bright (as Gove is), but has an embarassing quote about being tougher than the Tories on welfare. Engaging her with Brexit avoids the latter being an issue while giving Gove a strong counterpart.Black_Rook said:
Gove is, IIRC, the ministerial lead on Brexit now that DExEU has been wound up.AndreaParma_82 said:I wouldn't have expected someone to leave as Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy select committee chair to be Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
This has to be the answer, surely?1 -
Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/12468358640361390091 -
LOL, like making the toilet cleaner the new CFOydoethur said:
The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.oxfordsimon said:
Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.ydoethur said:
I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:oxfordsimon said:
Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.Scott_xP said:
As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
Dodds - Scotland
NTS - Wales
Nandy - North of England
Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)
Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.0 -
Yes, actually. I'm quite optimistic that we can do this next time - especially if the consequence is more lockdown!kinabalu said:
Do you think we are capable of implementing such a regime though?ABZ said:I think the answer is South Korea! They have managed to control the spread really well and new infections are ticking along in the background. As long as it stays in control (i.e., contacts are traced rapidly upon someone being infected) and testing is high there's no reason to assume it will become unmanageable.
Technologically, solutions are being developed (see this thread: https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1246452660397629446) and the scaling up of testing will facilitate, across the country, very rapid profiling of new cases. There will still be need for manual contact tracing but the electronic tracing should make a massive difference, especially given the preponderance of mobile phones. Also, if you read the linked paper, it suggests that you can not only contain but actually stop the spread with a decent (but not 100%) amount of compliance.
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Right... that isn't exactly a vote of confidence in his new deputy. She isn't the greatest media performer (as today has already shown). She might grow into it. But this looks like a place to keep her out of actual policy development.AndreaParma_82 said:As expected, Angela Rayner will also be party chair (Lavery's current role)
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She's off telly.felix said:
Quite extraordinary. There must be people who could do the job as well as her. How can she appear on TV again? An odd misstep by Nicola.eadric said:The plot thickens
https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/1246809159254913024?s=21
No idea why she is still in job.0 -
I had to Google Nick "Torfaen" to realise that was his constituency, not his surname.HYUFD said:
Mind, I've still never heard of Nick Thomas-Symonds. He seems very posh. And another bloody PPE barrister.0 -
Loved this one....MyBurningEars said:https://twitter.com/DrMatthewSweet/status/1246814355964006400
Re fake news and 5G, interesting to remember that "Dr" Naomi Wolf was an adviser to Bill Clinton (and later to Al Gore). Anyone care to comment on Belfast's "3G clear air"?
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1246769711100186626
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So just hide the embarrassing CMO away from the public and carry on as if nothing has happened?Scott_xP said:
Nicola, Nicola, Nicola. I thought better of her.3 -
Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.Time_to_Leave said:
98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.kinabalu said:
Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.bigjohnowls said:Scary times.
I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.
Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?
I presume some PBers could identify them if not.
I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.
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What do you expect? He'd probably be a spy if he was bright enough.....BluestBlue said:
Burgon is a graduate of St. John's College, Cambridge.ydoethur said:
No idea. Pretty sure somebody who makes the same mistakes repeatedly and appears to be incapable of remembering basic facts or formulating simple sentences doesn’t have a high one. I genuinely am puzzled that he got into Cambridge.bigjohnowls said:
Thanks ydoethur.ydoethur said:
I think he said we had twelve thousand, and didn’t need thirty thousand any more but didn’t say how many we were expected to need. It wasn’t easy to tell because he was getting so confused.bigjohnowls said:Has Hancock given a figure for the number of ventilators we have and need, this morning?
12,000 is almost double what we had in ICU wards a month ago and a good 4,000 up on the total including in Theatres. So that's good progress if we already have 12,000.
What's Burgons IQ BTW?
I see you mentioned him departing will lead to a significant increase.
Just interested to know, thanks in advance.
Mine is 144, if you’re particularly interested.
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From all inboxes?OldKingCole said:
Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.Time_to_Leave said:
98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.kinabalu said:
Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.bigjohnowls said:Scary times.
I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.
Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?
I presume some PBers could identify them if not.
I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.0 -
That's just asking for you to send all emails to both addresses, and let her work out which one she can delete and which she needs to respond to.OldKingCole said:
Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.Time_to_Leave said:
98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.kinabalu said:
Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.bigjohnowls said:Scary times.
I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.
Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?
I presume some PBers could identify them if not.
I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.0 -
Unity prevails!HYUFD said:0 -
Abbott is another Cambridge graduate who has never shown any intelligence.CarlottaVance said:
What do you expect? He'd probably be a spy if he was bright enough.....BluestBlue said:
Burgon is a graduate of St. John's College, Cambridge.ydoethur said:
No idea. Pretty sure somebody who makes the same mistakes repeatedly and appears to be incapable of remembering basic facts or formulating simple sentences doesn’t have a high one. I genuinely am puzzled that he got into Cambridge.bigjohnowls said:
Thanks ydoethur.ydoethur said:
I think he said we had twelve thousand, and didn’t need thirty thousand any more but didn’t say how many we were expected to need. It wasn’t easy to tell because he was getting so confused.bigjohnowls said:Has Hancock given a figure for the number of ventilators we have and need, this morning?
12,000 is almost double what we had in ICU wards a month ago and a good 4,000 up on the total including in Theatres. So that's good progress if we already have 12,000.
What's Burgons IQ BTW?
I see you mentioned him departing will lead to a significant increase.
Just interested to know, thanks in advance.
Mine is 144, if you’re particularly interested.
Sometimes tutors for admissions make mistakes.0 -
It sounds as if a lot of Swedes are getting nervous of the policy:Stark_Dawning said:
Will all Swedish COVID-19 deaths be fake news by the western media?Theuniondivvie said:
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/sweden-prepares-to-tighten-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true0 -
Why not send it to both if you want a response?OldKingCole said:
Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.Time_to_Leave said:
98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.kinabalu said:
Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.bigjohnowls said:Scary times.
I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.
Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?
I presume some PBers could identify them if not.
I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.0 -
For RBS that would have been an improvement.malcolmg said:
LOL, like making the toilet cleaner the new CFOydoethur said:
The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.oxfordsimon said:
Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.ydoethur said:
I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:oxfordsimon said:
Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.Scott_xP said:
As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
Dodds - Scotland
NTS - Wales
Nandy - North of England
Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)
Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.0 -
She passed the IQ test apparently.Mexicanpete said:
Unity prevails!HYUFD said:0 -
Another of Nicola's buddies no doubtAlistair said:
She's off telly.felix said:
Quite extraordinary. There must be people who could do the job as well as her. How can she appear on TV again? An odd misstep by Nicola.eadric said:The plot thickens
https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/1246809159254913024?s=21
No idea why she is still in job.0 -
The tweet has now been deleted, but I saved it for posterity:MyBurningEars said:
Loved this one....MyBurningEars said:https://twitter.com/DrMatthewSweet/status/1246814355964006400
Re fake news and 5G, interesting to remember that "Dr" Naomi Wolf was an adviser to Bill Clinton (and later to Al Gore). Anyone care to comment on Belfast's "3G clear air"?
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1246769711100186626
Dr Naomi Wolf
✔
@naomirwolf
Replying to @RealAmericaSong and 14 others
It was amazing to go to Belfast, which does not yet have 5G, and feel the earth, sky, air, human experience, feel the way it did in the 1970s. Calm, still, peaceful, restful, natural.2 -
-
Yes, this is the nub of it. We have to try to manage hospital admissions within the capacity of the NHS. If we truly cannot do this without triggering a "brother can you spare a dime?" economic catastrophe then there will be some awfully hard decisions to take and perhaps we bring Toby Young on board at that point. But we are not there yet.IshmaelZ said:And we are not simply "afraid of death;" we are afraid of multiple excess deaths overwhelming the health care system and producing complete chaos and societal breakdown. I am sure Lord S is a clever cookie but he sounds in this instance like Peter Hitchens's less intelligent twin.
0 -
Politics and slight cynicism.
We were thinking about nicknames for Starmer the Charmer.
I'm wondering about Majikthise or Vroomfondel since he's already started demanding certainty and detail in areas where it is not possible.
1 -
Good thought; that moment has passed, but next time I will.RobD said:
Why not send it to both if you want a response?OldKingCole said:
Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.Time_to_Leave said:
98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.kinabalu said:
Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.bigjohnowls said:Scary times.
I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.
Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?
I presume some PBers could identify them if not.
I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.
0 -
There's another place to knock off the future holiday spot list.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/12467999864629493760 -
Probably the government's advice is different because it was issued before the herd immunity strategy was dropped, and now it can't be changed without politicians losing face.Foxy said:
She is recommending that we follow WHO guidance, which is 14 days. It is not a completely daft idea.oxfordsimon said:
https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1246113809632309262?s=191 -
Nat West Group young man , just as it always wasydoethur said:
For RBS that would have been an improvement.malcolmg said:
LOL, like making the toilet cleaner the new CFOydoethur said:
The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.oxfordsimon said:
Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.ydoethur said:
I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:oxfordsimon said:
Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.Scott_xP said:
As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
Dodds - Scotland
NTS - Wales
Nandy - North of England
Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)
Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.0 -
Treasury team? Delusions of grandeur.HYUFD said:1 -
Trump "stopped the China flights" - or not:
430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced
There were 1,300 direct flights to 17 cities before President Trump’s travel restrictions. Since then, nearly 40,000 Americans and other authorized travelers have made the trip, some this past week and many with spotty screening.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html0 -
I do wonder if all the 'Nicola wants out' stuff is just wishful thinking from Unionists looking at their own dire politicians, her appetite for the fray seems undiminished. I remember a profile just after indy ref time where Sturgeon admitted to being a political obsessive, lapping up the likes of the West Wing and Borgen, and how she relished the prospect of being FM. Not sure if some Miliband Major type sinecure at the UN involving being occasionally wheeled out to spout platitudes would cut it for her.williamglenn said:Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/12468358640361390090 -
I got 5/2 on Smarkets two days ago and posted it here. It was 7/4 elsewhere. BF had no market.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The only market I saw was Betfair's where there was absolutely no liquidity and everyone was at 1.03.Artist said:Wish I'd bet on Dodds, she was the only realistic choice all along and keeps all wings of the party happy.
1 -
He went to St Edmund Hall, Oxford, was an Oxford don and then studied for the bar at Lincoln's Inn and was a chancery and commercial barrister. He is about as posh as you can get without going to public schoolEndillion said:
I had to Google Nick "Torfaen" to realise that was his constituency, not his surname.HYUFD said:
Mind, I've still never heard of Nick Thomas-Symonds. He seems very posh. And another bloody PPE barrister.0 -
Toby not eligible on PB Tory IQ grounds surely.kinabalu said:
Yes, this is the nub of it. We have to try to manage hospital admissions within the capacity of the NHS. If we truly cannot do this without triggering a "brother can you spare a dime?" economic catastrophe then there will be some awfully hard decisions to take and perhaps we bring Toby Young on board at that point. But we are not there yet.IshmaelZ said:And we are not simply "afraid of death;" we are afraid of multiple excess deaths overwhelming the health care system and producing complete chaos and societal breakdown. I am sure Lord S is a clever cookie but he sounds in this instance like Peter Hitchens's less intelligent twin.
2 -
Or Salmondistas?Theuniondivvie said:
I do wonder if all the 'Nicola wants out' stuff is just wishful thinking from Unionistswilliamglenn said:Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1246835864036139009
0 -
The basic spreadsheet model that Alistair Meeks included in an old thread header is suprisongly good.tyson said:
I noted AndyJS giving up his modelling because of the numbers....Foxy said:"On Saturday 4 April, the total number of deaths reported at University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation Trust in the West Midlands almost doubled, from 102 to 203. Today it reported an additional 11 deaths."
I suspect that this was catch up data rather than a true doubling, but should make for a touch of caution in those closely following the numbers.
https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article
We are all just making it up as we go along.... basically0 -
Quite so. And the likes of Tobes are just churning out their ubermensch "survival of the fittest" shtick for people who already lean that way in any case. It's playing to the gallery. Nietzsching to the converted.Theuniondivvie said:Another string to the 'we contrarians with our edgy uncomfortable views are constantly being gagged' bow. Scientific studies have found that there can be as many as 749 published articles espousing these views on any given day.
(shoehorns in joke that I made up yesterday and have been dying to try out)
5 -
That's all that wing of the party need, another grievance to nurture.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Another choice bit of advice for people showing symptoms of coronavirus, which still hasn't been changed, is that they are allowed to go out and exercise!Chris said:
Probably the government's advice is different because it was issued before the herd immunity strategy was dropped, and now it can't be changed without politicians losing face.Foxy said:
She is recommending that we follow WHO guidance, which is 14 days. It is not a completely daft idea.oxfordsimon said:
https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1246113809632309262?s=190 -
Just as well she isn't in line for one then.Theuniondivvie said:
I do wonder if all the 'Nicola wants out' stuff is just wishful thinking from Unionists looking at their own dire politicians, her appetite for the fray seems undiminished. I remember a profile just after indy ref time where Sturgeon admitted to being a political obsessive, lapping up the likes of the West Wing and Borgen, and how she relished the prospect of being FM. Not sure if some Miliband Major type sinecure at the UN involving being occasionally wheeled out to spout platitudes would cut it for her.williamglenn said:Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/12468358640361390090 -
It makes one wonder if she’s starting to lose her touch though. I have always had her down as a smart cookie and an incredibly sharp political operator - indeed, one of the most savvy politicians in the UK at the moment.Theuniondivvie said:
I do wonder if all the 'Nicola wants out' stuff is just wishful thinking from Unionists looking at their own dire politicians, her appetite for the fray seems undiminished. I remember a profile just after indy ref time where Sturgeon admitted to being a political obsessive, lapping up the likes of the West Wing and Borgen, and how she relished the prospect of being FM. Not sure if some Miliband Major type sinecure at the UN involving being occasionally wheeled out to spout platitudes would cut it for her.williamglenn said:Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1246835864036139009
Unforced errors like today’s are very unusual. Has she gone full Thatcher bonkers and just thinks the normal rules don’t apply anymore?0
This discussion has been closed.