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  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Anneliese Dodds, Shadow Chancellor
    Lisa Nandy, Shadow Foreign Secretary
    Nick Thomas-Symonds, Shadow Home Secretary
    Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I wouldn't have expected someone to leave as Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy select committee chair to be Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has Hancock given a figure for the number of ventilators we have and need, this morning?

    I think he said we had twelve thousand, and didn’t need thirty thousand any more but didn’t say how many we were expected to need. It wasn’t easy to tell because he was getting so confused.
    Thanks ydoethur.
    12,000 is almost double what we had in ICU wards a month ago and a good 4,000 up on the total including in Theatres. So that's good progress if we already have 12,000.
    What's Burgons IQ BTW?
    I see you mentioned him departing will lead to a significant increase.

    Just interested to know, thanks in advance.
    No idea. Pretty sure somebody who makes the same mistakes repeatedly and appears to be incapable of remembering basic facts or formulating simple sentences doesn’t have a high one. I genuinely am puzzled that he got into Cambridge.

    Mine is 144, if you’re particularly interested.
    Burgon is a graduate of St. John's College, Cambridge. Degree classification unknown, but he must have gotten something.

    Now that's an enigma worthy of Pierre de Fermat...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    kinabalu said:

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
    Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited April 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.

    As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
    I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:

    Dodds - Scotland
    NTS - Wales
    Nandy - North of England
    Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)

    Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    kinabalu said:

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
    If his parents had called him Kevin, he wouldn't have got the job.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    So that is yet another vital job she wants the Police to be doing when clearly there are no other priorities. I do hope 'nitpicking' of this sort is not the new level of 'opposition' we can expect. As for the digs at Hancock. Haters gonna hate.
  • She needs to speak to ber boss

    . Starmer was very clear this morning that he backed HMG on this
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    One thing Starmer has is that the way the cards fall, the 124th seat isn't ridiculously safe (5.25% swing required). A 6% swing would probably deliver a reasonable majority.

    No, it’s a 10% swing required.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

    This is target 124:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_North_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The SNP hold it by 49% to 28%.

    A 5.25% takes Filton and Bradley Stoke, target no. 59. That would still be a greater swing than Thatcher managed.
    Not entirely sure the usual rules apply, such was Corbyn's toxicity. The inability to recapture Scotland is a massive and likely insurmountable hurdle for any future Labour majority to be reached. A minority Labour Government sans Corbyn is not beyond possibility next time.

    As TSE has pointed out Covid-19 changes everything, and to who's advantage is anyone's guess.
    As ever, a recipe for a catastrophic mess. The main enablers for a Labour minority are likely to be the SNP, who will insist on a second referendum.

    The UK Government could very well end up trying to negotiate the dissolution of the UK with the SNP, whilst being propped up (until the point that this is completed) by... the SNP.
    Isn't that what did for the Liberals? They had support from the Irish Nationalists for their Home Rule policy, then lost power after Ireland got Home Rule?
    No. Lots of things did for the Liberals. They were blamed for the length and damage of the First World War (unfairly, but every party in power in 1914 was swiftly removed during the war or immediately afterwards). They were hampered by changes to the franchise which gave the vote to women (who voted Conservative) and younger men (who tended to vote Labour). They were also severely damaged by a series of splits - most pertinently the intensely personal one between Lloyd George and Asquith, which reduced them to third party status in 1918. The wipeout of the Irish Nationalists and the granting of an Irish Parliament from 1922 were more aftershocks than causes of the decline.

    But it’s worth remembering after 1885 the Liberals only won one election in their own strength (1906) - and that was when sometimes as many as three Unionists standing in one constituency for one vote.
    If my feelings, as a Liberal throughout the 70's and 80's, and a LD thereafter are any guide, what has done for the LibDems is the Coalition. Their principles appear to have been walked all over, either because Cameron and Osborne were much more ruthless than they seemed at first, or because their Cabinet Ministers were inadequate.
    Or both.
    Unless something changes very radically, looks like Starmer's Labour for me.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
    Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.
    Gives her a profile and keeps her on the outside. Doesn't sound like he actually wants her contribution to the domestic agenda - but also doesn't want to be seen to exclude her completely.

    Where will RLB end up?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Hillary Benn and Yvette Cooper I think who might have been obvious choices for the shadow cabinet hold key positions as head of important select committees so might not end up with jobs .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    I think the hope is that by spreading the 3m hospital admissions over a longer period the health service never gets overwhelmed and the number of deaths is lower. I cant pretend to know the numbers tho.

    Yes. So perhaps not 250k. But still very much a 6 digit number unless the estimates of mortality rate are way too high.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.

    As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
    I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:

    Dodds - Scotland
    NTS - Wales
    Nandy - North of England
    Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)

    Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.
    Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.
  • kinabalu said:

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
    I cannot critise them as of now and do not want to sound churlish
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
    Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.
    I stand to be corrected, but wasn't Ernie Bevin a success as Foreign Sec?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited April 2020

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.

    As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
    I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:

    Dodds - Scotland
    NTS - Wales
    Nandy - North of England
    Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)

    Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.
    Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.
    The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I wouldn't have expected someone to leave as Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy select committee chair to be Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

    Gove is, IIRC, the ministerial lead on Brexit now that DExEU has been wound up.

    This has to be the answer, surely?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
    Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.
    They have Towns in foreign countries I believe.

    Perhaps she could talk about those.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    What’s happened in Scotland is very similar to what happened in the film Contagion.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
    Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.
    I stand to be corrected, but wasn't Ernie Bevin a success as Foreign Sec?
    Yes, at the cost of splitting the Labour Party.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.

    As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
    I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:

    Dodds - Scotland
    NTS - Wales
    Nandy - North of England
    Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)

    Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.
    Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.
    The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.
    Very possibly - but having Dodds in this role won't help win a single vote in Scotland.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Endillion said:

    What proportion of asymptomatic cases are you assuming?

    How I did it was herd immunity needs 30m infected.

    10% need hospital and 0.8% die.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    Most curves seem to be "bending over".



  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.

    As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
    I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:

    Dodds - Scotland
    NTS - Wales
    Nandy - North of England
    Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)

    Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.
    Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.
    The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.
    Very possibly - but having Dodds in this role won't help win a single vote in Scotland.
    I would have said, frankly, that she’s unlikely to win Labour a single vote anywhere. But she may surprise on the upside.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
    Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.
    I stand to be corrected, but wasn't Ernie Bevin a success as Foreign Sec?
    One could argue that he had more of an impact as Minister of Labour during WWII.

    One can have a great career in foreign affairs - but Nandy is one of the clearest thinkers they have got on the domestic agenda. It is a waste to have her focus overseas
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898


    I am sadly of the opinion that more people will die in Britain as a direct or indirect consequence of the lockdown and the shredding of the economy than will die as a result of CV-19. We already know that people are dying because of disruption to their treatment, because of suicides and because they are alone with no one to look after them.

    The trouble is that saying more will die as a result of the 'cure' compared to the disease does not take into account what would have happened if we had not instigated the 'cure'. I am inclined to believe the ICL numbers about how many would have died without a lockdown. But I am still uncomfortable with the fact that we are, to large extent, acting as if the lockdown is victimless.

    Yes, there are no easy or pain-free options out there but the compelling argument for me is the ability of the medical services and authorities to have coped with a large number of cases caused by failing to taking adequate measures to try to contain the virus.

    It recalls an argument I remember being heard in late 2008 to justify bailing out the banks with pubic money. Yes, it might have been better for poorly-run banks to fail but the scenes of people queuing to get their money and the likely social disorder of a run on the banks would have been unsupportable.

    Sometimes the consequence of doing "what's best" in the long term are too unpalatable in the short term so more immediate measures are taken which have shorter term benefits but do not mitigate the longer term risks.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Its likely that most of the 250,000 deaths over the next 18 months would have died anyway.

    A bit brutal but has to be considered.

    Many, yes, but I'm doubtful about "most".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    She is recommending that we follow WHO guidance, which is 14 days. It is not a completely daft idea.

    https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1246113809632309262?s=19
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    'Only' 525 fatalities in Italy today - lowest since March 19th (about 10 days into their lockdown). Still quite a lot of new cases reported (4300), but I wonder if they are picking up milder cases. But still good news overall.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Wish I'd bet on Dodds, she was the only realistic choice all along and keeps all wings of the party happy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dodds is awful. She has no presence, no panache, no flair.

    It seems an odd choice. As does Lisa "Towns" Nandy for Foreign Sec.

    But Keir knows best. He's not the Labour Leader for nothing.
    Gives Nandy a big profile, nothing to say she cannot also talk about towns.
    I stand to be corrected, but wasn't Ernie Bevin a success as Foreign Sec?
    Yes, at the cost of splitting the Labour Party.
    Having said what I did, couldn't Bevin be, somewhat difficult to work with.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    Will all Swedish COVID-19 deaths be fake news by the western media?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Emily Thornberry will stay in the Shadow cabinet in a new role.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    It feels to me like Labour has one chance to do well this time around, and that is to own the narrative around the recovery phase from this pandemic. There’s a way to link in to some of the “forgotten towns” and “forgotten key workers” narrative.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited April 2020

    Scary times.

    I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.

    Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?

    I presume some PBers could identify them if not.

    Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    "On Saturday 4 April, the total number of deaths reported at University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation Trust in the West Midlands almost doubled, from 102 to 203. Today it reported an additional 11 deaths."

    I suspect that this was catch up data rather than a true doubling, but should make for a touch of caution in those closely following the numbers.

    https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    ABZ said:

    I think the answer is South Korea! They have managed to control the spread really well and new infections are ticking along in the background. As long as it stays in control (i.e., contacts are traced rapidly upon someone being infected) and testing is high there's no reason to assume it will become unmanageable.

    Do you think we are capable of implementing such a regime though?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Artist said:

    Wish I'd bet on Dodds, she was the only realistic choice all along and keeps all wings of the party happy.

    The only market I saw was Betfair's where there was absolutely no liquidity and everyone was at 1.03.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    kinabalu said:

    Scary times.

    I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.

    Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?

    I presume some PBers could identify them if not.

    Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.
    98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Foxy said:

    She is recommending that we follow WHO guidance, which is 14 days. It is not a completely daft idea.

    https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1246113809632309262?s=19
    How often does that occur? It's possible that the government and their advisors decided seven days was good enough for a balance between protecting others and allowing people to get out. Less relevant with the lockdown now though.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000

    Will all Swedish COVID-19 deaths be fake news by the western media?
    A minor mental leap from 'all Swedish murders by Islamic immigrants covered up by the western media' for these dudes.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Foxy said:

    "On Saturday 4 April, the total number of deaths reported at University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation Trust in the West Midlands almost doubled, from 102 to 203. Today it reported an additional 11 deaths."

    I suspect that this was catch up data rather than a true doubling, but should make for a touch of caution in those closely following the numbers.

    https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article

    I noted AndyJS giving up his modelling because of the numbers....

    We are all just making it up as we go along.... basically
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898


    One could argue that he had more of an impact as Minister of Labour during WWII.

    One can have a great career in foreign affairs - but Nandy is one of the clearest thinkers they have got on the domestic agenda. It is a waste to have her focus overseas

    It may be that as we depart the EU the role of Foreign Secretary could once again regain the relevance and importance it once enjoyed.

    Lisa Nandy is well placed to be the leader after Starmer - could the 2029 GE see PM Rishi Sunak challenged by LOTO Lisa Nandy?

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    Rayner is Labour Party "Chair".
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    As expected, Angela Rayner will also be party chair (Lavery's current role)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    "On Saturday 4 April, the total number of deaths reported at University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation Trust in the West Midlands almost doubled, from 102 to 203. Today it reported an additional 11 deaths."

    I suspect that this was catch up data rather than a true doubling, but should make for a touch of caution in those closely following the numbers.

    https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article

    I noted AndyJS giving up his modelling because of the numbers....

    We are all just making it up as we go along.... basically
    I'm sure the CMO and his advisors aren't. Just because data is difficult to interpret, doesn't mean it can't be interpreted.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    https://twitter.com/DrMatthewSweet/status/1246814355964006400
    Re fake news and 5G, interesting to remember that "Dr" Naomi Wolf was an adviser to Bill Clinton (and later to Al Gore). Anyone care to comment on Belfast's "3G clear air"?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    What proportion of asymptomatic cases are you assuming?

    How I did it was herd immunity needs 30m infected.

    10% need hospital and 0.8% die.
    So if we're lucky and it turns out that - say - 75% can get it, show no symptoms and still get immunity (or are inherently immune ab initio), then your figures become 30m x 25% x 10% = 750k hospitalised, and 30m x 25% x 0.8% = 60k deaths.

    That's how we manage. It only works if the "iceberg" theory turns out to be right, but the first mass antibody tests should show this one way or the other. We'll probably have a pretty good idea by the end of the month, one way or another.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ABZ said:

    'Only' 525 fatalities in Italy today - lowest since March 19th (about 10 days into their lockdown). Still quite a lot of new cases reported (4300), but I wonder if they are picking up milder cases. But still good news overall.

    Is that the third day of dropping numbers?

    In other news:

    https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1246834696182366209?s=09
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    edited April 2020

    I wouldn't have expected someone to leave as Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy select committee chair to be Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

    Gove is, IIRC, the ministerial lead on Brexit now that DExEU has been wound up.

    This has to be the answer, surely?
    Yes, I'd think so - at some point we'll be talking Brexit again, and this will then be a key role. Reeves is generally acknowledged to be bright (as Gove is), but has an embarassing quote about being tougher than the Tories on welfare. Engaging her with Brexit avoids the latter being an issue while giving Gove a strong counterpart.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1246835864036139009
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.

    As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
    I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:

    Dodds - Scotland
    NTS - Wales
    Nandy - North of England
    Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)

    Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.
    Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.
    The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.
    LOL, like making the toilet cleaner the new CFO
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    kinabalu said:

    ABZ said:

    I think the answer is South Korea! They have managed to control the spread really well and new infections are ticking along in the background. As long as it stays in control (i.e., contacts are traced rapidly upon someone being infected) and testing is high there's no reason to assume it will become unmanageable.

    Do you think we are capable of implementing such a regime though?
    Yes, actually. I'm quite optimistic that we can do this next time - especially if the consequence is more lockdown!

    Technologically, solutions are being developed (see this thread: https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1246452660397629446) and the scaling up of testing will facilitate, across the country, very rapid profiling of new cases. There will still be need for manual contact tracing but the electronic tracing should make a massive difference, especially given the preponderance of mobile phones. Also, if you read the linked paper, it suggests that you can not only contain but actually stop the spread with a decent (but not 100%) amount of compliance.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    As expected, Angela Rayner will also be party chair (Lavery's current role)

    Right... that isn't exactly a vote of confidence in his new deputy. She isn't the greatest media performer (as today has already shown). She might grow into it. But this looks like a place to keep her out of actual policy development.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    felix said:

    eadric said:
    Quite extraordinary. There must be people who could do the job as well as her. How can she appear on TV again? An odd misstep by Nicola.
    She's off telly.

    No idea why she is still in job.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    RobD said:

    Well, shouldn't we compare Churchill's first attempt (1950) with Corbyn's first?

    You can if you want. But that is not quite so interesting.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited April 2020
    HYUFD said:
    I had to Google Nick "Torfaen" to realise that was his constituency, not his surname.

    Mind, I've still never heard of Nick Thomas-Symonds. He seems very posh. And another bloody PPE barrister.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    tlg86 said:

    What’s happened in Scotland is very similar to what happened in the film Contagion.

    what happened in Scotland, did I miss it
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited April 2020

    https://twitter.com/DrMatthewSweet/status/1246814355964006400
    Re fake news and 5G, interesting to remember that "Dr" Naomi Wolf was an adviser to Bill Clinton (and later to Al Gore). Anyone care to comment on Belfast's "3G clear air"?

    Loved this one....
    https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1246769711100186626
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    Scott_xP said:
    So just hide the embarrassing CMO away from the public and carry on as if nothing has happened?

    Nicola, Nicola, Nicola. I thought better of her.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    kinabalu said:

    Scary times.

    I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.

    Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?

    I presume some PBers could identify them if not.

    Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.
    98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.
    Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.
    I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
    It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has Hancock given a figure for the number of ventilators we have and need, this morning?

    I think he said we had twelve thousand, and didn’t need thirty thousand any more but didn’t say how many we were expected to need. It wasn’t easy to tell because he was getting so confused.
    Thanks ydoethur.
    12,000 is almost double what we had in ICU wards a month ago and a good 4,000 up on the total including in Theatres. So that's good progress if we already have 12,000.
    What's Burgons IQ BTW?
    I see you mentioned him departing will lead to a significant increase.

    Just interested to know, thanks in advance.
    No idea. Pretty sure somebody who makes the same mistakes repeatedly and appears to be incapable of remembering basic facts or formulating simple sentences doesn’t have a high one. I genuinely am puzzled that he got into Cambridge.

    Mine is 144, if you’re particularly interested.
    Burgon is a graduate of St. John's College, Cambridge.
    What do you expect? He'd probably be a spy if he was bright enough.....

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    kinabalu said:

    Scary times.

    I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.

    Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?

    I presume some PBers could identify them if not.

    Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.
    98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.
    Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.
    I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
    It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.
    From all inboxes?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    kinabalu said:

    Scary times.

    I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.

    Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?

    I presume some PBers could identify them if not.

    Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.
    98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.
    Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.
    I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
    It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.
    That's just asking for you to send all emails to both addresses, and let her work out which one she can delete and which she needs to respond to.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has Hancock given a figure for the number of ventilators we have and need, this morning?

    I think he said we had twelve thousand, and didn’t need thirty thousand any more but didn’t say how many we were expected to need. It wasn’t easy to tell because he was getting so confused.
    Thanks ydoethur.
    12,000 is almost double what we had in ICU wards a month ago and a good 4,000 up on the total including in Theatres. So that's good progress if we already have 12,000.
    What's Burgons IQ BTW?
    I see you mentioned him departing will lead to a significant increase.

    Just interested to know, thanks in advance.
    No idea. Pretty sure somebody who makes the same mistakes repeatedly and appears to be incapable of remembering basic facts or formulating simple sentences doesn’t have a high one. I genuinely am puzzled that he got into Cambridge.

    Mine is 144, if you’re particularly interested.
    Burgon is a graduate of St. John's College, Cambridge.
    What do you expect? He'd probably be a spy if he was bright enough.....

    Abbott is another Cambridge graduate who has never shown any intelligence.

    Sometimes tutors for admissions make mistakes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:
    I had to Google Nick "Torfaen" to realise that was his constituency, not his surname.

    Mind, I've still never heard of Nick Thomas-Symonds. He seems very posh. And another bloody PPE barrister.
    Could come in handy.

    I believe the NHS is still short of PPE
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    kinabalu said:

    Scary times.

    I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.

    Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?

    I presume some PBers could identify them if not.

    Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.
    98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.
    Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.
    I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
    It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.
    Why not send it to both if you want a response?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.

    As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
    I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:

    Dodds - Scotland
    NTS - Wales
    Nandy - North of England
    Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)

    Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.
    Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.
    The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.
    LOL, like making the toilet cleaner the new CFO
    For RBS that would have been an improvement.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    She passed the IQ test apparently.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    Alistair said:

    felix said:

    eadric said:
    Quite extraordinary. There must be people who could do the job as well as her. How can she appear on TV again? An odd misstep by Nicola.
    She's off telly.

    No idea why she is still in job.
    Another of Nicola's buddies no doubt
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    https://twitter.com/DrMatthewSweet/status/1246814355964006400
    Re fake news and 5G, interesting to remember that "Dr" Naomi Wolf was an adviser to Bill Clinton (and later to Al Gore). Anyone care to comment on Belfast's "3G clear air"?

    Loved this one....
    https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1246769711100186626
    The tweet has now been deleted, but I saved it for posterity:

    Dr Naomi Wolf

    @naomirwolf
    Replying to @RealAmericaSong and 14 others
    It was amazing to go to Belfast, which does not yet have 5G, and feel the earth, sky, air, human experience, feel the way it did in the 1970s. Calm, still, peaceful, restful, natural.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    IshmaelZ said:

    And we are not simply "afraid of death;" we are afraid of multiple excess deaths overwhelming the health care system and producing complete chaos and societal breakdown. I am sure Lord S is a clever cookie but he sounds in this instance like Peter Hitchens's less intelligent twin.

    Yes, this is the nub of it. We have to try to manage hospital admissions within the capacity of the NHS. If we truly cannot do this without triggering a "brother can you spare a dime?" economic catastrophe then there will be some awfully hard decisions to take and perhaps we bring Toby Young on board at that point. But we are not there yet.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    edited April 2020
    Politics and slight cynicism.

    We were thinking about nicknames for Starmer the Charmer.

    I'm wondering about Majikthise or Vroomfondel since he's already started demanding certainty and detail in areas where it is not possible.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scary times.

    I hope the vaccine comes sooner than we all think it will.

    Have we got people with the highest IQs on this?

    I presume some PBers could identify them if not.

    Well Patel (98) is being kept well away so that's a comfort.
    98? That would be near average. I see no evidence she’s that high.
    Emailed Patel (I'm a constituent) about something the other day and got a reply to the effect that is it was a constituency matter I should use one email address, but if it related to her work as Home Sec I should use another one. Emails sent to the wrong address would be deleted and not acted upon.
    I was emailing her because, as a constituent who had helped to bring Ugandan refugees to UK, I felt that strongly about a particular immigration matter.
    It would appear that my email has been summarily deleted.
    Why not send it to both if you want a response?
    Good thought; that moment has passed, but next time I will.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    MattW said:
    There's another place to knock off the future holiday spot list.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Foxy said:

    She is recommending that we follow WHO guidance, which is 14 days. It is not a completely daft idea.

    https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1246113809632309262?s=19
    Probably the government's advice is different because it was issued before the herd immunity strategy was dropped, and now it can't be changed without politicians losing face.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems utterly bizarre to appoint Nandy (who has much to contribute to the domestic agenda) to a position where she is not going to be able to develop that important set of policies.

    As for Dodds and Thomas-Symonds - there is nothing inspiring about either of them. They are better than the idiots they are replacing - but that isn't saying much.
    I wonder though if this is an attempt at regional balance:

    Dodds - Scotland
    NTS - Wales
    Nandy - North of England
    Reeves - London (although she sits for a seat in Leeds)

    Mis-step if so - talent should matter more than tokenism.
    Dodds may have been born in Scotland - but she 'represents' Oxford East... hardly close to the Lochs and the Cairns.
    The only Scottish MP, or rather, MP for a Scottish seat, Labour have left is Ian Murray. And he will presumably be offered SSoS for Scotland.
    LOL, like making the toilet cleaner the new CFO
    For RBS that would have been an improvement.
    Nat West Group young man , just as it always was
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Trump "stopped the China flights" - or not:

    430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced
    There were 1,300 direct flights to 17 cities before President Trump’s travel restrictions. Since then, nearly 40,000 Americans and other authorized travelers have made the trip, some this past week and many with spotty screening.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    edited April 2020

    Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1246835864036139009

    I do wonder if all the 'Nicola wants out' stuff is just wishful thinking from Unionists looking at their own dire politicians, her appetite for the fray seems undiminished. I remember a profile just after indy ref time where Sturgeon admitted to being a political obsessive, lapping up the likes of the West Wing and Borgen, and how she relished the prospect of being FM. Not sure if some Miliband Major type sinecure at the UN involving being occasionally wheeled out to spout platitudes would cut it for her.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Artist said:

    Wish I'd bet on Dodds, she was the only realistic choice all along and keeps all wings of the party happy.

    The only market I saw was Betfair's where there was absolutely no liquidity and everyone was at 1.03.
    I got 5/2 on Smarkets two days ago and posted it here. It was 7/4 elsewhere. BF had no market.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:
    I had to Google Nick "Torfaen" to realise that was his constituency, not his surname.

    Mind, I've still never heard of Nick Thomas-Symonds. He seems very posh. And another bloody PPE barrister.
    He went to St Edmund Hall, Oxford, was an Oxford don and then studied for the bar at Lincoln's Inn and was a chancery and commercial barrister. He is about as posh as you can get without going to public school
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    And we are not simply "afraid of death;" we are afraid of multiple excess deaths overwhelming the health care system and producing complete chaos and societal breakdown. I am sure Lord S is a clever cookie but he sounds in this instance like Peter Hitchens's less intelligent twin.

    Yes, this is the nub of it. We have to try to manage hospital admissions within the capacity of the NHS. If we truly cannot do this without triggering a "brother can you spare a dime?" economic catastrophe then there will be some awfully hard decisions to take and perhaps we bring Toby Young on board at that point. But we are not there yet.
    Toby not eligible on PB Tory IQ grounds surely.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1246835864036139009

    I do wonder if all the 'Nicola wants out' stuff is just wishful thinking from Unionists
    Or Salmondistas?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    "On Saturday 4 April, the total number of deaths reported at University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation Trust in the West Midlands almost doubled, from 102 to 203. Today it reported an additional 11 deaths."

    I suspect that this was catch up data rather than a true doubling, but should make for a touch of caution in those closely following the numbers.

    https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped/7027212.article

    I noted AndyJS giving up his modelling because of the numbers....

    We are all just making it up as we go along.... basically
    The basic spreadsheet model that Alistair Meeks included in an old thread header is suprisongly good.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    That's all that wing of the party need, another grievance to nurture.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    She is recommending that we follow WHO guidance, which is 14 days. It is not a completely daft idea.

    https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1246113809632309262?s=19
    Probably the government's advice is different because it was issued before the herd immunity strategy was dropped, and now it can't be changed without politicians losing face.
    Another choice bit of advice for people showing symptoms of coronavirus, which still hasn't been changed, is that they are allowed to go out and exercise!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1246835864036139009

    I do wonder if all the 'Nicola wants out' stuff is just wishful thinking from Unionists looking at their own dire politicians, her appetite for the fray seems undiminished. I remember a profile just after indy ref time where Sturgeon admitted to being a political obsessive, lapping up the likes of the West Wing and Borgen, and how she relished the prospect of being FM. Not sure if some Miliband Major type sinecure at the UN involving being occasionally wheeled out to spout platitudes would cut it for her.
    Just as well she isn't in line for one then.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814

    Nicola Sturgeon to Piers Morgan: See you next Tuesday.

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1246835864036139009

    I do wonder if all the 'Nicola wants out' stuff is just wishful thinking from Unionists looking at their own dire politicians, her appetite for the fray seems undiminished. I remember a profile just after indy ref time where Sturgeon admitted to being a political obsessive, lapping up the likes of the West Wing and Borgen, and how she relished the prospect of being FM. Not sure if some Miliband Major type sinecure at the UN involving being occasionally wheeled out to spout platitudes would cut it for her.
    It makes one wonder if she’s starting to lose her touch though. I have always had her down as a smart cookie and an incredibly sharp political operator - indeed, one of the most savvy politicians in the UK at the moment.

    Unforced errors like today’s are very unusual. Has she gone full Thatcher bonkers and just thinks the normal rules don’t apply anymore?
This discussion has been closed.