politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

Mysticrose said:

And Alex, most Asian countries have avoided lockdown because of their approach. South Korea being a good example.

We're so flaming arrogant in this country. All that shit Hancock spouted the other day about how we are trying to find a vaccine and a cure. Er, because no other countries are already doing that of course?

We are a second-rate nation at best. Sorry. But true.

OldKingCole said:

BluestBlue said:

kinabalu said:

BluestBlue said:

Very few people want both parts of that offer - it was just tried a few months ago, with catalclysmic results. Your only hope is slow demographic change overcoming our deep national antipathy to such a programme. By which point sensible people will have sold up and moved to a friendlier jurisdiction

You're reading too much into Dec 12th. Brexit and Corbyn will not be factors next time. We can win from the Left.

Maybe, but look at the US. The demographics there are vastly more favourable for your programme, and yet Bernie Sanders continues to get his clock cleaned again and again. CV-19 is a wild card for the entire world, but on the fundamentals a clever Tory Party should be able to exclude Kinabalu Labour (TM) from power for another couple of decades.

Clever Tory Party. Surely an oxymoron.

Devious, cunning, perhaps.

Mysticrose said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I liked Giles Dilnot’s comment that the people who seem appalled to see a few people scattered around a park on a lovely spring day are probably not living in an inner London high rise

Absolutely!

And this fascist attack on people driving to the countryside. Why the fuck shouldn't they? If they are in their own cars and in a remote area they are not virus vectors. We are totally ridiculous sometimes.

You can even hear on social media an argument that they might crash their cars on the way and divert A&E staff. I mean really. Is that our level of argument now?

Stocky said:

Well, if you`re doing 9 of them well done. Pull ups are hard. Many men (maybe most?) would struggle to do 1.

Charles said:

Mysticrose said:

And Alex, most Asian countries have avoided lockdown because of their approach. South Korea being a good example.

We're so flaming arrogant in this country. All that shit Hancock spouted the other day about how we are trying to find a vaccine and a cure. Er, because no other countries are already doing that of course?

We are a second-rate nation at best. Sorry. But true.

That’s a strange attitude to take

We are a middle-ranked power, certainly. That’s an objective fact. We’re probably towards the top end of that group because of legacy factors such as a seat on the UNSC. But the US, China etc are more powerful simply by virtue of size and wealth.

That doesn’t make us second rate. By almost any measure you care to mention we would be well ranked.

kinabalu said:

BluestBlue said:

Maybe, but look at the US. The demographics there are vastly more favourable for your programme, and yet Bernie Sanders continues to get his clock cleaned again and again. CV-19 is a wild card for the entire world, but on the fundamentals a clever Tory Party should be able to exclude Kinabalu Labour (TM) from power for another couple of decades.

The US really is a mystery. But as it happens I am confident of a big swing to the Dems in November. Bernie? Well, he has made the weather there in many ways so I don't know about "getting his clock cleaned". If Trump wins again that will cause me to re-examine some of my beliefs, in particular my big one which is that people are on the whole more benign than malign and although irrational are not irredeemably stupid. Not that I'm comparing Trump and the Republicans to Johnson and the Conservatives, I must stress.

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:

Solitary Fitness - You Don't Need a Fancy Gym or Expensive Gear to be as Fit as Me https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00ALU7E2Q/ref=cm_sw_r_em_apa_i_kNBIEb0Z07HXG

The guy is a nutter, but this is a surprisingly good book for those wanting fitness in a confined space and no equipment.

Yes! I have been reading this and second this recommendation.

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

But not Finland.

Though others cannot win. This is France:

https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19

Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

Just wondering if the suppliers but very cautious use by dates to 1) avoid litigation for occassional malfunction 2) sell on repeat as often as possible - which would be typical of most industries.

alex_ said:

NorthCadboll said:

The man has already proved he is a fecking arse! Calling things which haven't yet happened "gross errors and mistakes". Obviously he knows what is being discussed at Cobra meetings. Supporting the Prime Minister in one sentence and cutting his legs away in the next. He can feck himself!

Called for a National Vaccination programme though. Must have spotted something that nobody else has publicly called for. Might be congratulating himself for raising it - possibly saved the country already. As long as the Govt listens to him.

egg said:

Self isolating oldies still struggling to get supermarket delivery slot. My understanding, and correct me where I am wrong, the government have implemented this ass over tit. It seems to be push not pull. “Tesco reveal they have now received part of the governments vulnerable database and have identified some of the their regular customers from it”. Etc. When they created this most vulnerable database why didn’t they give it to the supermarkets say “here a link, identify your usual customers from it. And pull what you need. Wiggle on, there’s some exasperated customers out there” Why does it have to push not pull? Why did it have to all go to Sainsbury’s first till they couldn’t cope anymore?

The Achilles heel in all the mistakes the government has made seems to be wedded to control and lacking agility and innovation.

Charles said:

alex_ said:

NorthCadboll said:

The man has already proved he is a fecking arse! Calling things which haven't yet happened "gross errors and mistakes". Obviously he knows what is being discussed at Cobra meetings. Supporting the Prime Minister in one sentence and cutting his legs away in the next. He can feck himself!

Called for a National Vaccination programme though. Must have spotted something that nobody else has publicly called for. Might be congratulating himself for raising it - possibly saved the country already. As long as the Govt listens to him.

I only heard in the radio that he wasn’t to build lots of new vaccination centres. Is there any more detail?

My initial reaction - having been involved with the sector - is WTF? You should deliver vaccinations through pharmacies and other locations. You don’t need a special building - just a private room, a trained nurse, and an IT system to deliver vaccines.

Charles said:

Flanner said:

Mysticrose said:

Indeed. I'd actually forgotten Hunt was a remainer. Is that true? Was he?

Hunt made no bones in 2019 about the fact that he'd voted Remain in 2016: his summary of his failed 2019 leadership campaign was "'My remain vote was a hurdle we couldn't overcome'"

Like May, though, he repeatedly spent the intervening 3 years accepting in public the nonsensical "sunny uplands" inventions of the lunatic UKIP Lite gang who took over the Tory party.

I’m not sure that was true.
He basically offered no change from May’s strategy. Boris - rightly or wrongly - saw a way to cut the Gordian knot. *That’s* why Boris won.

Jonathan said:

Charles said:

alex_ said:

NorthCadboll said:

The man has already proved he is a fecking arse! Calling things which haven't yet happened "gross errors and mistakes". Obviously he knows what is being discussed at Cobra meetings. Supporting the Prime Minister in one sentence and cutting his legs away in the next. He can feck himself!

Called for a National Vaccination programme though. Must have spotted something that nobody else has publicly called for. Might be congratulating himself for raising it - possibly saved the country already. As long as the Govt listens to him.

I only heard in the radio that he wasn’t to build lots of new vaccination centres. Is there any more detail?

My initial reaction - having been involved with the sector - is WTF? You should deliver vaccinations through pharmacies and other locations. You don’t need a special building - just a private room, a trained nurse, and an IT system to deliver vaccines.

Is point was that we should be ready to go when the vaccination is ready. I work in parallel not in series. We shouldn't add an additional wait to figure out how to distribute and administer a vaccine.

Sensible enough.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Charles said:

Flanner said:

Mysticrose said:

Indeed. I'd actually forgotten Hunt was a remainer. Is that true? Was he?

Hunt made no bones in 2019 about the fact that he'd voted Remain in 2016: his summary of his failed 2019 leadership campaign was "'My remain vote was a hurdle we couldn't overcome'"

Like May, though, he repeatedly spent the intervening 3 years accepting in public the nonsensical "sunny uplands" inventions of the lunatic UKIP Lite gang who took over the Tory party.

I’m not sure that was true.
He basically offered no change from May’s strategy. Boris - rightly or wrongly - saw a way to cut the Gordian knot. *That’s* why Boris won.

Boris won because, as @HYUFD posted continually, Boris led Labour in the polls and Theresa May had just almost handed Corbyn the keys to Downing Street.

Charles said:

Flanner said:

Mysticrose said:

Indeed. I'd actually forgotten Hunt was a remainer. Is that true? Was he?

Hunt made no bones in 2019 about the fact that he'd voted Remain in 2016: his summary of his failed 2019 leadership campaign was "'My remain vote was a hurdle we couldn't overcome'"

Like May, though, he repeatedly spent the intervening 3 years accepting in public the nonsensical "sunny uplands" inventions of the lunatic UKIP Lite gang who took over the Tory party.

I’m not sure that was true.
He basically offered no change from May’s strategy. Boris - rightly or wrongly - saw a way to cut the Gordian knot. *That’s* why Boris won.

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

But not Finland.

Though others cannot win. This is France:

https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19

Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

MarqueeMark said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

I don't know if any of you have ever been in a tower block. It's grim, and I only visit them fleetingly.
There is a 23 storey block in Leicester called Goscote House that is scheduled for demolition. The council have given us a free run to use it for training until it goes. It's an amazing venue, and we were making good use of it until the pandemic.
My point is this... On my first visit a few months ago, after we'd spent a couple of hours running hose up and down the stairs, we sat in a flat on the top floor contemplating life. It was a bedsit, literally a combined lounge/bedroom with ensuite bathroom and what we call an ensuite kitchen. You won't be swinging any cats in there. The windows only open an inch and there isn't a balcony. It was unremittingly bleak. I actually felt disgust that we made people live like that.
When we're in our nice gardens this afternoon, having a beer and a bbq, wondering where we're going to source plants now that B&Q are shut, raise a glass to the ones stuck in that high-rise.

I don't see how people can effectively live in those places in a pandemic, when theoretically you can't share a lift with someone. There is no way to police "it's my turn" for someone waiting to get to the 20th floor. Are they supposed to go out once a week and lug their shopping up twenty flights of stairs, whilst hoping they don't meet anybody else doing the same? Poor sods, it must be utterly wretched.

To minimise the time folks are having to go through this is why we have to enforce the lock-down.

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

But not Finland.

Though others cannot win. This is France:

https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19

Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

Just wondering if the suppliers but very cautious use by dates to 1) avoid litigation for occassional malfunction 2) sell on repeat as often as possible - which would be typical of most industries.

Andy_Cooke said:

rottenborough said:

Chris said:

DavidL said:

Chris said:

DavidL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

squareroot2 said:

HYUFD said:

Starmer on Marr now, says he will work constructively with the government and receive Privy Council briefings but says the government should not have originally pursued herd immunity and was slow on rolling out testing

benefit of hindsight..

Pursuing herd immunity is still the only game in town as far as I'm concerned. Is Starmer's policy to lock down until there is a vaccine in sufficient quantity that the whole country can get it? Stupid man.

There is still an element of unreality about this. The choices are a permanent lock down and economic ruin, a vaccine or herd immunity. There are no other easy options. We can only hope that Bill Gates comes through on the vaccine.

I think we are already heading towards a significant proportion of the population having been infected, and if there is a plateau for a month or so I can imagine it could rise to a quarter of the populaton - perhaps more like half in Inner London. That would make it appreciably easier to control further outbreaks, particularly if the virus does become less easily transmissible in the Summer.

Agreed. The reason herd immunity became a hot potato was because it came with a tariff of 500k dead. But ultimately unless we get a vaccine that is the ball park, even if it takes several years and multiple waves. Suggesting it was a mistake or a policy error simply shows a reluctance to face that reality.

But I think there are big practical differences between acquiring a significant degree of herd immunity during two or three smaller waves, rather than a single big one, which seemed to be the original plan:

(1) During one big wave there would be a tendency to overshoot the percentage needed for herd immunity. That's why there was talk of up to 80% possibly being infected, rather than 60%, which would be roughly the percentage needed for herd immunity.

(2) Conversely, if we got up to - say - 40% in two smaller waves, even though that wouldn't be enough for herd immunity in normal life, it might make it possible for much milder social distancing to suppress further outbreaks in the medium term.

(3) A larger proportion could be given medical care during several small waves rather than one big one.

(4) In subsequent waves here would be time for better arrangements to be made for those who need to be isolated. I'm sure a lot of elderly and vulnerable people are still having to go to the shops now, because they have no alternative.

(5) In subsequent waves we should have much better information about the spread of the virus and hopefully about more effective treatments.

"The reason herd immunity became a hot potato was because it came with a tariff of 500k dead."

The model used indicated it came with a tariff of 500k dead. That might not have been the reality.

Swedish modellers take a different view:

https://unherd.com/2020/03/all-eyes-on-the-swedish-coronavirus-experiment/

Swedish politicians are being very courageous. If they’re wrong, they’ll end up responsible for a huge amount of avoidable deaths.

I mean, forget the political cost - I’d find it impossible to look myself in the mirror ever again if I’d made that call and got it wrong.

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

I don't know if any of you have ever been in a tower block. It's grim, and I only visit them fleetingly.
There is a 23 storey block in Leicester called Goscote House that is scheduled for demolition. The council have given us a free run to use it for training until it goes. It's an amazing venue, and we were making good use of it until the pandemic.
My point is this... On my first visit a few months ago, after we'd spent a couple of hours running hose up and down the stairs, we sat in a flat on the top floor contemplating life. It was a bedsit, literally a combined lounge/bedroom with ensuite bathroom and what we call an ensuite kitchen. You won't be swinging any cats in there. The windows only open an inch and there isn't a balcony. It was unremittingly bleak. I actually felt disgust that we made people live like that.
When we're in our nice gardens this afternoon, having a beer and a bbq, wondering where we're going to source plants now that B&Q are shut, raise a glass to the ones stuck in that high-rise.

Yes, I’m very fortunate in that I have a nice house and a garden that are amply big enough to give me space and occupy my mind. I’ve been chopping wood up for the stove and getting some of my books off the shelves. Plus I have my own research to work on.

If I had two small children and no garden whether the police like it or not I would drive to the Chase to give them some exercise.

I presume though that your organ is sadly neglected, and in need of a bit of pumping to keep in good order...

Always!

On a serious note, however, if an organ reservoir is not regularly inflated it can damage the leathers. Then, when you do inflate them, they crack and cause £20,000 worth of damage.

I have been wondering if I will be able to claim going to a church to do routine maintenance of the organ could be considered a ‘reasonable excuse.’ After all, it is part of my job and I can’t do it remotely. In the next week or so I will have to discuss it with the relevant clergy and make a decision.

MarqueeMark said:

Interesting take in the Sundays on why some London streets are much quieter in their support of the NHS clapathon than others.

It's cuz they've all buggered off to their country retreats.....

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

BluestBlue said:

Maybe, but look at the US. The demographics there are vastly more favourable for your programme, and yet Bernie Sanders continues to get his clock cleaned again and again. CV-19 is a wild card for the entire world, but on the fundamentals a clever Tory Party should be able to exclude Kinabalu Labour (TM) from power for another couple of decades.

The US really is a mystery. But as it happens I am confident of a big swing to the Dems in November. Bernie? Well, he has made the weather there in many ways so I don't know about "getting his clock cleaned". If Trump wins again that will cause me to re-examine some of my beliefs, in particular my big one which is that people are on the whole more benign than malign and although irrational are not irredeemably stupid. Not that I'm comparing Trump and the Republicans to Johnson and the Conservatives, I must stress.

If Trump wins it will be because of the southern US states, the mountain and plain states and the rustbelt Midwest again, California, New York, the West Coast and the North East will still vote Democrat by a landslide again regardless.

Disparaging the provincial and 'flyover states' white working class who voted for Brexit, Boris and Trump as 'malign' and 'irredeemably stupid' will not help the liberal left win

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/BoycottsBat/status/1246693381063028736

Why on earth has that silly bint not resigned yet? I really don't want anyone that obtuse in charge of our medical efforts.

Jonathan said:

Charles said:

alex_ said:

NorthCadboll said:

The man has already proved he is a fecking arse! Calling things which haven't yet happened "gross errors and mistakes". Obviously he knows what is being discussed at Cobra meetings. Supporting the Prime Minister in one sentence and cutting his legs away in the next. He can feck himself!

Called for a National Vaccination programme though. Must have spotted something that nobody else has publicly called for. Might be congratulating himself for raising it - possibly saved the country already. As long as the Govt listens to him.

I only heard in the radio that he wasn’t to build lots of new vaccination centres. Is there any more detail?

My initial reaction - having been involved with the sector - is WTF? You should deliver vaccinations through pharmacies and other locations. You don’t need a special building - just a private room, a trained nurse, and an IT system to deliver vaccines.

Is point was that we should be ready to go when the vaccination is ready. I work in parallel not in series. We shouldn't add an additional wait to figure out how to distribute and administer a vaccine.

Sensible enough.

rottenborough said:

Progress and Labour First are set to jointly launch a new umbrella organisation called ‘Labour to Win’ as a response to Keir Starmer’s call for party unity.

https://labourlist.org/2020/04/progress-and-labour-first-launch-labour-to-win-umbrella-organisation/

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

egg said:

Self isolating oldies still struggling to get supermarket delivery slot. My understanding, and correct me where I am wrong, the government have implemented this ass over tit. It seems to be push not pull. “Tesco reveal they have now received part of the governments vulnerable database and have identified some of the their regular customers from it”. Etc. When they created this most vulnerable database why didn’t they give it to the supermarkets say “here a link, identify your usual customers from it. And pull what you need. Wiggle on, there’s some exasperated customers out there” Why does it have to push not pull? Why did it have to all go to Sainsbury’s first till they couldn’t cope anymore?

The Achilles heel in all the mistakes the government has made seems to be wedded to control and lacking agility and innovation.

The list has to be controlled by the LA who then deal with all aspects of safe guarding including arranging the food deliveries. Your dislike of all things the government does may be because you are not across the detail

And I should know, as my son in laws father is under the scheme and it works very well across all departments and utilises the army of volunteers

That’s very rude and Unnecessary government supportive of you, considering having the 4 page letter saying most vulnerable, then logging on the database, still no contact or recognition from a supermarket nearly two weeks later. Google it, hundreds of thousands in the same boat.

The government are obviously raiding closed hotels for their random not entirely helpful goody bag, what vulnerable people really need is the database to deliver a slot from one of their usual supermarkets.
Look at what I have actually posted there, I am right in what has gone wrong, the old fashioned push not pull approach. too much control, not enough agile or innovation in the government machine.

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

I don't know if any of you have ever been in a tower block. It's grim, and I only visit them fleetingly.
There is a 23 storey block in Leicester called Goscote House that is scheduled for demolition. The council have given us a free run to use it for training until it goes. It's an amazing venue, and we were making good use of it until the pandemic.
My point is this... On my first visit a few months ago, after we'd spent a couple of hours running hose up and down the stairs, we sat in a flat on the top floor contemplating life. It was a bedsit, literally a combined lounge/bedroom with ensuite bathroom and what we call an ensuite kitchen. You won't be swinging any cats in there. The windows only open an inch and there isn't a balcony. It was unremittingly bleak. I actually felt disgust that we made people live like that.
When we're in our nice gardens this afternoon, having a beer and a bbq, wondering where we're going to source plants now that B&Q are shut, raise a glass to the ones stuck in that high-rise.

Yes, I’m very fortunate in that I have a nice house and a garden that are amply big enough to give me space and occupy my mind. I’ve been chopping wood up for the stove and getting some of my books off the shelves. Plus I have my own research to work on.

If I had two small children and no garden whether the police like it or not I would drive to the Chase to give them some exercise.

I presume though that your organ is sadly neglected, and in need of a bit of pumping to keep in good order...

Always!

On a serious note, however, if an organ reservoir is not regularly inflated it can damage the leathers. Then, when you do inflate them, they crack and cause £20,000 worth of damage.

I have been wondering if I will be able to claim going to a church to do routine maintenance of the organ could be considered a ‘reasonable excuse.’ After all, it is part of my job and I can’t do it remotely. In the next week or so I will have to discuss it with the relevant clergy and make a decision.

Given that the pump for the organ is almost certainly electric - it would be an interesting project to wire it up to a home automation setup, so you could fire it up from your house, over the internet.

If you are moderately talented at home brew electronics, you could build the setup yourself from parts. There are plenty of kits out there. A friend setup a system to water his garden (via perforated house installed in the flower beds) - all he has to do is tap a button on app on his phone.

Floater said:

Blaming foreigners eh?

China floods Facebook with undeclared coronavirus propaganda ads blaming Trump
Chinese state media is flooding Facebook and Instagram with undisclosed political adverts whitewashing its role in the coronavirus pandemic and pinning blame on Donald Trump.

Three official news outlets – Xinhua, China Central Television and the Global Times – have targeted users across the world with promoted stories in English, Chinese and Arabic.

The ads, seen millions of times, extolled China’s efforts against Covid-19, downplayed its domestic outbreak, depicted Mr Trump as misguided and racist, and suggested that the virus might have originated in the US.

alex_ said:

rottenborough said:

Progress and Labour First are set to jointly launch a new umbrella organisation called ‘Labour to Win’ as a response to Keir Starmer’s call for party unity.

https://labourlist.org/2020/04/progress-and-labour-first-launch-labour-to-win-umbrella-organisation/

What is the Labour Party obsession with “umbrella organisations”, parties within parties etc etc? Or do the Conservatives have the same?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

But not Finland.

Though others cannot win. This is France:

https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19

Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

Just wondering if the suppliers but very cautious use by dates to 1) avoid litigation for occassional malfunction 2) sell on repeat as often as possible - which would be typical of most industries.

Filters in all kinds of filtering breathing gear are disposable and have a life span. IN the case of the disposable masks they are built in. The "reusable" kit just have removable filters, which get thrown away after x usage.

This is true for military kit as well - around the world.

As was reported the other day, California had 21 million N95 masks in storage for an emergency supply. When they came to distribute them they found they were all out of date.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

But not Finland.

Though others cannot win. This is France:

https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19

Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

Just wondering if the suppliers but very cautious use by dates to 1) avoid litigation for occassional malfunction 2) sell on repeat as often as possible - which would be typical of most industries.

Filters in all kinds of filtering breathing gear are disposable and have a life span. IN the case of the disposable masks they are built in. The "reusable" kit just have removable filters, which get thrown away after x usage.

This is true for military kit as well - around the world.

As was reported the other day, California had 21 million N95 masks in storage for an emergency supply. When they came to distribute them they found they were all out of date.

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

But not Finland.

Though others cannot win. This is France:

https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19

Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

Just wondering if the suppliers but very cautious use by dates to 1) avoid litigation for occassional malfunction 2) sell on repeat as often as possible - which would be typical of most industries.

Filters in all kinds of filtering breathing gear are disposable and have a life span. IN the case of the disposable masks they are built in. The "reusable" kit just have removable filters, which get thrown away after x usage.

This is true for military kit as well - around the world.

As was reported the other day, California had 21 million N95 masks in storage for an emergency supply. When they came to distribute them they found they were all out of date.

Which is so stupid. Any fool can realise that you want to turn over your stockpile faster than it goes out of date.

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/BoycottsBat/status/1246693381063028736

Why on earth has that silly bint not resigned yet? I really don't want anyone that obtuse in charge of our medical efforts.

Come on, how long it take to get rid of the Finance Minister when he was caught grooming teenage boys? It was hardly instant.

Sturgeon has many strengths as a politician but her reaction to HR crises would embarrass John Major.

RobD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

But not Finland.

Though others cannot win. This is France:

https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19

Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

Just wondering if the suppliers but very cautious use by dates to 1) avoid litigation for occassional malfunction 2) sell on repeat as often as possible - which would be typical of most industries.

Filters in all kinds of filtering breathing gear are disposable and have a life span. IN the case of the disposable masks they are built in. The "reusable" kit just have removable filters, which get thrown away after x usage.

This is true for military kit as well - around the world.

As was reported the other day, California had 21 million N95 masks in storage for an emergency supply. When they came to distribute them they found they were all out of date.

I suppose for these things you will need to maintain a stockpile where stores are kept for a year or two, then sold to hospitals and replenished.

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

But not Finland.

Though others cannot win. This is France:

https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19

Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

Just wondering if the suppliers but very cautious use by dates to 1) avoid litigation for occassional malfunction 2) sell on repeat as often as possible - which would be typical of most industries.

Filters in all kinds of filtering breathing gear are disposable and have a life span. IN the case of the disposable masks they are built in. The "reusable" kit just have removable filters, which get thrown away after x usage.

This is true for military kit as well - around the world.

As was reported the other day, California had 21 million N95 masks in storage for an emergency supply. When they came to distribute them they found they were all out of date.

I suppose for these things you will need to maintain a stockpile where stores are kept for a year or two, then sold to hospitals and replenished.

That's how any vaguely intelligent stockpile is run - the famous EEC grain and butter mountains were managed exactly thus.

Hell, standard warehousing software has features which records the sell buy dates of items as they are scanned in, and coordinates picking for sale so that you don't leave a can of beans on the shell for 25 years...

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

I don't know if any of you have ever been in a tower block. It's grim, and I only visit them fleetingly.
There is a 23 storey block in Leicester called Goscote House that is scheduled for demolition. The council have given us a free run to use it for training until it goes. It's an amazing venue, and we were making good use of it until the pandemic.
My point is this... On my first visit a few months ago, after we'd spent a couple of hours running hose up and down the stairs, we sat in a flat on the top floor contemplating life. It was a bedsit, literally a combined lounge/bedroom with ensuite bathroom and what we call an ensuite kitchen. You won't be swinging any cats in there. The windows only open an inch and there isn't a balcony. It was unremittingly bleak. I actually felt disgust that we made people live like that.
When we're in our nice gardens this afternoon, having a beer and a bbq, wondering where we're going to source plants now that B&Q are shut, raise a glass to the ones stuck in that high-rise.

Yes, I’m very fortunate in that I have a nice house and a garden that are amply big enough to give me space and occupy my mind. I’ve been chopping wood up for the stove and getting some of my books off the shelves. Plus I have my own research to work on.

If I had two small children and no garden whether the police like it or not I would drive to the Chase to give them some exercise.

I presume though that your organ is sadly neglected, and in need of a bit of pumping to keep in good order...

Always!

On a serious note, however, if an organ reservoir is not regularly inflated it can damage the leathers. Then, when you do inflate them, they crack and cause £20,000 worth of damage.

I have been wondering if I will be able to claim going to a church to do routine maintenance of the organ could be considered a ‘reasonable excuse.’ After all, it is part of my job and I can’t do it remotely. In the next week or so I will have to discuss it with the relevant clergy and make a decision.

Given that the pump for the organ is almost certainly electric - it would be an interesting project to wire it up to a home automation setup, so you could fire it up from your house, over the internet.

If you are moderately talented at home brew electronics, you could build the setup yourself from parts. There are plenty of kits out there. A friend setup a system to water his garden (via perforated house installed in the flower beds) - all he has to do is tap a button on app on his phone.

It is electric - pretty much all organ blowers are now, I’ve only ever played two that aren’t - but one was built in 1928, one in 1953 and one in 1965. I don’t think I would be comfortable having them running with nobody there to keep an eye on them.

Do what my garden watering friend did - he installed cameras as an extension of his home security system. One watching the solenoid valve for the water, a coupe watching the garden. So he can watch the operation of the system on his phone as well.

He was smart in that he installed the solenoid valve outside, just above a drain. Worst case is that it starts leaking massively - so that is taken care of.

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

egg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

egg said:

Self isolating oldies still struggling to get supermarket delivery slot. My understanding, and correct me where I am wrong, the government have implemented this ass over tit. It seems to be push not pull. “Tesco reveal they have now received part of the governments vulnerable database and have identified some of the their regular customers from it”. Etc. When they created this most vulnerable database why didn’t they give it to the supermarkets say “here a link, identify your usual customers from it. And pull what you need. Wiggle on, there’s some exasperated customers out there” Why does it have to push not pull? Why did it have to all go to Sainsbury’s first till they couldn’t cope anymore?

The Achilles heel in all the mistakes the government has made seems to be wedded to control and lacking agility and innovation.

The list has to be controlled by the LA who then deal with all aspects of safe guarding including arranging the food deliveries. Your dislike of all things the government does may be because you are not across the detail

And I should know, as my son in laws father is under the scheme and it works very well across all departments and utilises the army of volunteers

That’s very rude and Unnecessary government supportive of you, considering having the 4 page letter saying most vulnerable, then logging on the database, still no contact or recognition from a supermarket nearly two weeks later. Google it, hundreds of thousands in the same boat.

The government are obviously raiding closed hotels for their random not entirely helpful goody bag, what vulnerable people really need is the database to deliver a slot from one of their usual supermarkets.
Look at what I have actually posted there, I am right in what has gone wrong, the old fashioned push not pull approach. too much control, not enough agile or innovation in the government machine.

Link to hundreds of thousands of the specific vulnerable not getting served please

The govenment are not adminstering the system, it is the LA's who have emergency phone lines to address the concerns you are making

I would suggest you direct anyone on the vulnerable list, or their family, to contact their LA urgently

For those who don’t know, and unaware, a 4 page scare you white as a sheet letter given to the most vulnerable, addressed from our local doctored surgery, to 1.5M wasn’t it? What it didn’t say was having identified you we have added you to the gov.uk database for priority supermarket delivery, you got to go to gov.uk add yourself, but unable to talk to anyone or be told this on the unhelpful help numbers, I walked into Sainsbury’s and was told this by the store manager. That was two weeks ago. Still no contact from any supermarket.
Neighbours over 70 though not in receipt of you are most vulnerable letter are getting priority deliveries from Sainsbury’s, who they rarely on line shop from but are on Sainsbury’s own database having done it couple of times. A google shows loads of people in this same boat.

From my research the government clearly using push not pull of the information they are building. It all went to Sainsbury at first for some reason. They have not considered the digital divide that still exists will some oldies not hot on internet research and internet commerce, so those are the people suffering lack of eggs, more regular bread, etc unless they actually go out.

Sorry Big G but I am right on this one. But I am not specifically blaming ministers, the civil service mentality is still control minded, old fashioned, not agile or innovative enough in this situation, instinctively use push not pull. It’s the civil service the government need to implement everything.

alex_ said:

eristdoof said:

alex_ said:

Andy_Cooke said:

rottenborough said:

Chris said:

DavidL said:

Chris said:

DavidL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

squareroot2 said:

HYUFD said:

Starmer on Marr now, says he will work constructively with the government and receive Privy Council briefings but says the government should not have originally pursued herd immunity and was slow on rolling out testing

benefit of hindsight..

Pursuing herd immunity is still the only game in town as far as I'm concerned. Is Starmer's policy to lock down until there is a vaccine in sufficient quantity that the whole country can get it? Stupid man.

There is still an element of unreality about this. The choices are a permanent lock down and economic ruin, a vaccine or herd immunity. There are no other easy options. We can only hope that Bill Gates comes through on the vaccine.

I think we are already heading towards a significant proportion of the population having been infected, and if there is a plateau for a month or so I can imagine it could rise to a quarter of the populaton - perhaps more like half in Inner London. That would make it appreciably easier to control further outbreaks, particularly if the virus does become less easily transmissible in the Summer.

Agreed. The reason herd immunity became a hot potato was because it came with a tariff of 500k dead. But ultimately unless we get a vaccine that is the ball park, even if it takes several years and multiple waves. Suggesting it was a mistake or a policy error simply shows a reluctance to face that reality.

But I think there are big practical differences between acquiring a significant degree of herd immunity during two or three smaller waves, rather than a single big one, which seemed to be the original plan:

(1) During one big wave there would be a tendency to overshoot the percentage needed for herd immunity. That's why there was talk of up to 80% possibly being infected, rather than 60%, which would be roughly the percentage needed for herd immunity.

(2) Conversely, if we got up to - say - 40% in two smaller waves, even though that wouldn't be enough for herd immunity in normal life, it might make it possible for much milder social distancing to suppress further outbreaks in the medium term.

(3) A larger proportion could be given medical care during several small waves rather than one big one.

(4) In subsequent waves here would be time for better arrangements to be made for those who need to be isolated. I'm sure a lot of elderly and vulnerable people are still having to go to the shops now, because they have no alternative.

(5) In subsequent waves we should have much better information about the spread of the virus and hopefully about more effective treatments.

"The reason herd immunity became a hot potato was because it came with a tariff of 500k dead."

The model used indicated it came with a tariff of 500k dead. That might not have been the reality.

Swedish modellers take a different view:

https://unherd.com/2020/03/all-eyes-on-the-swedish-coronavirus-experiment/

Swedish politicians are being very courageous. If they’re wrong, they’ll end up responsible for a huge amount of avoidable deaths.

I mean, forget the political cost - I’d find it impossible to look myself in the mirror ever again if I’d made that call and got it wrong.

Appreciate it doesn’t really reflect your point but I think to some extent Sweden might have safety in smaller numbers. All things being equal smaller countries have smaller numbers, so having bad outcomes doesn’t stand out so significantly. We are a big country getting regularly measured against the other big countries. If we apparently get it wrong it stands out.

The 1200 deaths so far in Begluim might not stand out to us, but they sure do if you live in Belgium.

1447

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

I don't know if any of you have ever been in a tower block. It's grim, and I only visit them fleetingly.
There is a 23 storey block in Leicester called Goscote House that is scheduled for demolition. The council have given us a free run to use it for training until it goes. It's an amazing venue, and we were making good use of it until the pandemic.
My point is this... On my first visit a few months ago, after we'd spent a couple of hours running hose up and down the stairs, we sat in a flat on the top floor contemplating life. It was a bedsit, literally a combined lounge/bedroom with ensuite bathroom and what we call an ensuite kitchen. You won't be swinging any cats in there. The windows only open an inch and there isn't a balcony. It was unremittingly bleak. I actually felt disgust that we made people live like that.
When we're in our nice gardens this afternoon, having a beer and a bbq, wondering where we're going to source plants now that B&Q are shut, raise a glass to the ones stuck in that high-rise.

Yes, I’m very fortunate in that I have a nice house and a garden that are amply big enough to give me space and occupy my mind. I’ve been chopping wood up for the stove and getting some of my books off the shelves. Plus I have my own research to work on.

If I had two small children and no garden whether the police like it or not I would drive to the Chase to give them some exercise.

I presume though that your organ is sadly neglected, and in need of a bit of pumping to keep in good order...

Always!

On a serious note, however, if an organ reservoir is not regularly inflated it can damage the leathers. Then, when you do inflate them, they crack and cause £20,000 worth of damage.

I have been wondering if I will be able to claim going to a church to do routine maintenance of the organ could be considered a ‘reasonable excuse.’ After all, it is part of my job and I can’t do it remotely. In the next week or so I will have to discuss it with the relevant clergy and make a decision.

Given that the pump for the organ is almost certainly electric - it would be an interesting project to wire it up to a home automation setup, so you could fire it up from your house, over the internet.

If you are moderately talented at home brew electronics, you could build the setup yourself from parts. There are plenty of kits out there. A friend setup a system to water his garden (via perforated house installed in the flower beds) - all he has to do is tap a button on app on his phone.

It is electric - pretty much all organ blowers are now, I’ve only ever played two that aren’t - but one was built in 1928, one in 1953 and one in 1965. I don’t think I would be comfortable having them running with nobody there to keep an eye on them.

Do what my garden watering friend did - he installed cameras as an extension of his home security system. One watching the solenoid valve for the water, a coupe watching the garden. So he can watch the operation of the system on his phone as well.

He was smart in that he installed the solenoid valve outside, just above a drain. Worst case is that it starts leaking massively - so that is taken care of.

Unfortunately, the worst case scenario with a blower is that it can catch fire and need extinguishing quickly if you don’t want half a million pounds’ worth of organ to be incinerated.

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/BoycottsBat/status/1246693381063028736

Why on earth has that silly bint not resigned yet? I really don't want anyone that obtuse in charge of our medical efforts.

Come on, how long it take to get rid of the Finance Minister when he was caught grooming teenage boys? It was hardly instant.

Sturgeon has many strengths as a politician but her reaction to HR crises would embarrass John Major.

Giving Salmond an opportunity to stir the shit at the moment is something she may come to regret.

Yes, Salmond could end up being Boris to her May

RobD said:

Malmesbury said:

RobD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

NYTimes:

As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

But not Finland.

Though others cannot win. This is France:

https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19

Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

Just wondering if the suppliers but very cautious use by dates to 1) avoid litigation for occassional malfunction 2) sell on repeat as often as possible - which would be typical of most industries.

Filters in all kinds of filtering breathing gear are disposable and have a life span. IN the case of the disposable masks they are built in. The "reusable" kit just have removable filters, which get thrown away after x usage.

This is true for military kit as well - around the world.

As was reported the other day, California had 21 million N95 masks in storage for an emergency supply. When they came to distribute them they found they were all out of date.

I suppose for these things you will need to maintain a stockpile where stores are kept for a year or two, then sold to hospitals and replenished.

That's how any vaguely intelligent stockpile is run - the famous EEC grain and butter mountains were managed exactly thus.

Hell, standard warehousing software has features which records the sell buy dates of items as they are scanned in, and coordinates picking for sale so that you don't leave a can of beans on the shell for 25 years...

Hmm.. I think I need a similar system for the mountains of pasta and gallons of UHT milk I have.