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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Not really surprising following the media onslaught last week but I also think those losing income without receiving immediate cash from HMG will be unhappy
    It’s the rhetoric vs reality gap. The daily press conferences are an error, should be twice a week. There is a perverse incentive to announce things rather than deliver things.
    Fair point.. but the problem is that the media would go nuts without its daily update.. how else do they fill their schedules/newpapers
    Who cares. Governments primarily job is not to feed the media.
    So the government should focus on fighting the crisis or feeding the press? If you really need to, on the off days let the monarchy, the opposition or the nations have a go. Send Charles out, he should be immune.
    Oi! What did I ever do to you?
    If you have to ask it was probably something bad.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    eadric said:

    eadric said:


    I am not the Chief Medical Officer of the nation, telling you all firmly to stay home.

    So you're a nobody blarting away on t'interent? Fair enough, that's a club I can identify with.
    Indeed. That’s what I am. And for the avoidance of doubt, this proves I am not SeanT

    I can’t imagine him quarantining in South Wales, FFS. He’d surely go to the Maldives, or a private beach in Queensland.
    Only one part of his split personality. I'm thinking Cornwall. He's from there, don't you know? Perhaps he's seen a surfboard? ;)
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    TGOHF666 said:

    eadric said:

    621 more Covid-19 deaths in the UK.

    That’s.... “good”. Fewer deaths.

    Is it working?
    Went down last weekend too.
    and, sort of, the weekend before

    anyone got that 'compared with Italy' graphic to hand#?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    NYTimes:

    As some nations scramble to find protective gear to fight the coronavirus pandemic, Finland is sitting on an enviable stockpile of personal protective equipment like surgical masks, putting it ahead of less-prepared Nordic neighbors.

    The stockpile, considered one of Europe’s best and built up over years, includes not only medical supplies, but also oil, grains, agricultural tools and raw materials to make ammunition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark had also amassed large stockpiles of medical and military equipment, fuel and food during the Cold War era. Later, most all but abandoned those stockpiles.

    But not Finland.

    Though others cannot win. This is France:

    https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1245668047223959555?s=19
    Silly question, what is making the masks deteriorate so they go out of date? Is an out of date mask clearly better than nothing? Or has it got its own dangers?

    Just wondering if the suppliers but very cautious use by dates to 1) avoid litigation for occassional malfunction 2) sell on repeat as often as possible - which would be typical of most industries.
    Filters in all kinds of filtering breathing gear are disposable and have a life span. IN the case of the disposable masks they are built in. The "reusable" kit just have removable filters, which get thrown away after x usage.

    This is true for military kit as well - around the world.
    As was reported the other day, California had 21 million N95 masks in storage for an emergency supply. When they came to distribute them they found they were all out of date.
    Amusing anecdote from my grandfather:

    One day in the Western Desert he received a large delivery of tinned corned beef from army stores. The label on them said, ‘Use before December 1943.’ (This was in October 1942.)

    But he noticed that there was a second label under this. So he peeled the top one off carefully and found the one below said: ‘Use before December 1937.’

    He was a bit taken aback by that. Then he realised there was yet another label under there, so he peeled this next label off and found another label: ‘Use before December 1931.’

    Well, the upshot of it was, the original use by date on the actual crates was 1919. It was First World War stock that had been in storage for 25 years as nobody could sell it and on a peacetime army establishment they had never needed to use it.

    The punchline is:

    Because it had been well made and carefully stored, it was fine to eat and got Ninth Armoured Brigade through the Second Battle of El Alamein.

    I do not know what the chemicals are like in these filters. But I wonder whether we’re sometimes too quick to throw things away on those grounds.
    Lots of out of date PPE is being distributed, supposedly tested and re-stamped. Better than nothing I suppose...

    https://twitter.com/SobanaA/status/1239559094681378816?s=19
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    eadric said:

    Internet rumours that Sturgeon is going to sack stay-at-homes Calderwood at 2.30

    I hope she does. My problem isn't with her checking her home, but with the hypocrisy.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    nichomar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Spain has specifically forbidden salir a pasear (going for a walk). Spain is hotter and more high rise than London. Nobody thinks this is bonkers.

    18 today on the cast, quite cloudy, 19 and cloudy in Madrid. It may well be a factor though in the governments desire to contain it and fast because. At 32 on the coast and 40+ in Madrid then it would be more than unpleasant.
    Yes. It's amazing how many excess deaths of the elderly you get in a heatwave anyway.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:
    Agree. And to be fair to the Scotland CMO, I don't think she did any harm, and was doing what she felt best for her family's wellbeing. The only trouble is, it conflicted directly with the advice she was dishing out.
    The CMO did massive harm. You can't have the person saying "Don't leave your home except for essential travel" every day take their entire family for a stay at their second home.

    It destroys the authority of the advice.
  • Am I right in thinking hat this morning's Coronavirus numbers for Spain appear to be considerably more encouraging, confirming recent downward trends? How has Portugal, for example, largely managed to avoid anything like the same level of infection as its neighbour?

    Why are the U.S. numbers released on a drip-feed basis, as opposed to a daily total making it difficult to difficult to judge what progress is being made in limiting the spread of the disease there?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    eadric said:

    Internet rumours that Sturgeon is going to sack stay-at-homes Calderwood at 2.30

    Good. She should.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    edited April 2020
    eadric said:

    621 more Covid-19 deaths in the UK.

    That’s.... “good”. Fewer deaths.

    Is it working?
    Not if you are one of the 621!

    These were people not numbers. I find it heartbreaking, that we are reduced to declaring fewer fatalities than yesterday as 'good'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    kle4 said:

    eadric said:


    I am not the Chief Medical Officer of the nation, telling you all firmly to stay home.

    So you're a nobody blarting away on t'interent? Fair enough, that's a club I can identify with.
    Speak for yourself. I chunter rather than blart.
    Both better than those from Yorkshire, mithering....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    eadric said:

    eadric said:


    I am not the Chief Medical Officer of the nation, telling you all firmly to stay home.

    So you're a nobody blarting away on t'interent? Fair enough, that's a club I can identify with.
    Indeed. That’s what I am. And for the avoidance of doubt, this proves I am not SeanT

    I can’t imagine him quarantining in South Wales, FFS. He’d surely go to the Maldives, or a private beach in Queensland.
    Top 1% of earners SeanT clearly has no connection whatsoever with 'ever so umble guvnor' eadric
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    eadric said:

    eadric said:


    I am not the Chief Medical Officer of the nation, telling you all firmly to stay home.

    So you're a nobody blarting away on t'interent? Fair enough, that's a club I can identify with.
    Indeed. That’s what I am. And for the avoidance of doubt, this proves I am not SeanT

    I can’t imagine him quarantining in South Wales, FFS. He’d surely go to the Maldives, or a private beach in Queensland.
    The proposition that SeanT isn't a nobody is an interesting one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ukpaul said:

    Here’s a sobering anecdote for you all.

    My niece is 3 shifts through a stint of 4 night shifts in an A&E department in Yorkshire. She is a nurse.

    She is a tough cookie. A few years ago she met the ambulance bringing her Dad to A&E after he suffered a huge asthma attack. She had no idea her Dad was in the ambulance when those doors opened. He died. She dealt with it. She has seen plenty of death because of her job.

    This morning she got back from work and has cried, sobbed, for 2 hours straight because of all the death she has seen over the past few days. Covid 19 patients are being treated in her A&E department and they, mostly older people, are dropping like flies.

    This is not a particular hot spot for the virus.

    This will be happening up and down the country.

    I’m not trying to make a point here, I’m just relaying the situation.

    As Gove said, Yorkshire is starting to see an exponential increase in cases.

    This is something that still doesn’t appear to be getting through, that the ‘war’ shifts in location and in severity over time. It doesn’t negate the fact that the country is at war, just because there’s nothing to see where you are. The whole situation is a challenge to the whole ‘if I don’t see it, it’s not happening mentality’. With the virus being literally unseen, with some hospitals working flat out whilst others wait, with death not having the sound of a bomb going off but just a silent ambulance, passing by unnoticed.

    With the Queen apparently going to talk about the need for self discipline, with further warnings from Hancock against those who think that slackening off is fine, with other nations further down the line than us, having to extend and extend as the danger remains, surely the hold outs will get the message now?
    And like a war, there are moments of frantic activity, and an awful lot of hanging around waiting for things to happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited April 2020
    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:


    I am not the Chief Medical Officer of the nation, telling you all firmly to stay home.

    So you're a nobody blarting away on t'interent? Fair enough, that's a club I can identify with.
    Indeed. That’s what I am. And for the avoidance of doubt, this proves I am not SeanT

    I can’t imagine him quarantining in South Wales, FFS. He’d surely go to the Maldives, or a private beach in Queensland.
    Nevertheless the law is that you are supposed to be at home. Not on holiday. Indeed holiday accommodation businesses themselves are supposed to be closed down.
    David Geffen is quarantining on a super yacht in the Caribbean
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11280654/billionaire-david-geffon-slammed-over-tone-deaf-coronavirus-post-of-him-self-isolating-on-590m-superyacht/
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    eadric said:

    Internet rumours that Sturgeon is going to sack stay-at-homes Calderwood at 2.30

    Good. She should.
    Scottish deaths up today - despite the weekend.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Daily death figures are misleading, as has been repeatedly pointed out.

    I must admit I often get confused by waking up every morning to discover USA with 200 odd new cases and a couple of new deaths. Then at some point in the evening they sneak in another few thousand!

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is among the things that are not going to occur. Imagine the outcry, and the field day for snoopers and other people shouldists. Furthermore it's bonkers.

    Because Boris Johnson would never, ever do something totally bonkers that seemed like a good idea at the time?
    I don't think this needs Boris Johnson there, throw in 'governments of any stripe' and we'd probably all agree.
    True. As Sir Humphrey said, a politician’s logic runs thus:

    We must do something.
    This is something.
    Therefore we must do this.
    It is only bonkers if you think Covid 19 is a mere inconvenience. You would stay inside indefinitely if you knew for certain there was a man with a gun outside your front door who would shoot you dead if you stepped outside.

    Italy has banned going for walks unless you have a dog. It has also charged anything up to 100,000 people with breach of the rules. Nobody seems to think that is bonkers.
    Exactly. There's too much whinging about trivia. The human right to sunbathe can be paused for a few weeks without turning us into a police state.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Am I right in thinking hat this morning's Coronavirus numbers for Spain appear to be considerably more encouraging, confirming recent downward trends? How has Portugal, for example, largely managed to avoid anything like the same level of infection as its neighbour?

    Why are the U.S. numbers released on a drip-feed basis, as opposed to a daily total making it difficult to difficult to judge what progress is being made in limiting the spread of the disease there?

    Worldometer just takes official stats from wherever and whenever they are released. Presumably many US states are issuing their own figures in their own ways at their own times. There is often no inherit logic to comparing on a country by country basis anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    eadric said:

    621 more Covid-19 deaths in the UK.

    That’s.... “good”. Fewer deaths.

    Is it working?
    Not if you are one of the 621!

    These were people not numbers. I find it heartbreaking, that we are reduced to declaring fewer fatalities than yesterday as 'good'.
    Seems that where it's bad, it's very bad. Where it's quiet, it's very quiet.

    I'm reminded of Dowding in the Battle of Britain. "I'm not very interested in propaganda. If we're right, they'll give up. If we are wrong, they'll be in London in a week."
  • NEW THREAD

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570

    Am I right in thinking hat this morning's Coronavirus numbers for Spain appear to be considerably more encouraging, confirming recent downward trends? How has Portugal, for example, largely managed to avoid anything like the same level of infection as its neighbour?

    Why are the U.S. numbers released on a drip-feed basis, as opposed to a daily total making it difficult to difficult to judge what progress is being made in limiting the spread of the disease there?

    US numbers are the business of each state. Just as the Scottish numbers are the business of the Scottish health system. If the Federal Government tried to prevent them releasing them they would just be ignored.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    IshmaelZ said:

    In France: exercise max 1 hour, within 1 km of home, and carrying with you a written attestation as to what you are up to.

    That's pretty short circles by bike, not much more fun just walking.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited April 2020

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is among the things that are not going to occur. Imagine the outcry, and the field day for snoopers and other people shouldists. Furthermore it's bonkers.

    Because Boris Johnson would never, ever do something totally bonkers that seemed like a good idea at the time?
    I don't think this needs Boris Johnson there, throw in 'governments of any stripe' and we'd probably all agree.
    True. As Sir Humphrey said, a politician’s logic runs thus:

    We must do something.
    This is something.
    Therefore we must do this.
    It is only bonkers if you think Covid 19 is a mere inconvenience. You would stay inside indefinitely if you knew for certain there was a man with a gun outside your front door who would shoot you dead if you stepped outside.

    Italy has banned going for walks unless you have a dog. It has also charged anything up to 100,000 people with breach of the rules. Nobody seems to think that is bonkers.
    Exactly. There's too much whinging about trivia. The human right to sunbathe can be paused for a few weeks without turning us into a police state.
    On the other hand the media and police hyping up a few cases of non-compliance when the vast majority are observing, as a minimum the spirit, and most the letter of the guidance should not be used as a cover for turning us into a police state. I'm hoping that Hancock's words are meant as a warning, not as an expression of serious intent.

    Not for myself - I can handle being in side for 6 months if I have to. But for people in horrible living conditions for whom going out is a basic necessity for mental, if not physical health.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    eadric said:

    621 more Covid-19 deaths in the UK.

    That’s.... “good”. Fewer deaths.

    Is it working?
    Not if you are one of the 621!

    These were people not numbers. I find it heartbreaking, that we are reduced to declaring fewer fatalities than yesterday as 'good'.
    I don't see how it is a matter of us being 'reduced' to anything. No one ever suggested they were not people. But there are millions upon millions more people who are vulnerable and it is simply fact that the rate of those dying now should indicate a better outcome for those who may die later.

    There will be matters of cold calculation in all this, that happens with major societal issues which affect millions and billions, but the personal stories and tragedies are not being lost, they can exist side by side.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Does anyone have a link to Andy's most recent chart of log deaths per capita if he's still doing it?

    I’m afraid I stopped after the French sudden addition of hundreds of deaths that had already happened.
    We’d already had updates to the UK deaths causing significant changes, and it was highlighted that we weren’t recording deaths outside of hospitals.

    I realised that the data was so unreliable at this stage, it wasn’t really worth doing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    She should go. No excuses for the CMOs not to practice what they preach in the current circumstances. I say that if it were any of the medical team advising the UK Government too.
    She should do a Jackson.

    But she won’t.

    That will however be pretty damaging for Sturgeon when she could really do without it.
    For sure she has enough coming down the line, with the Salmond enquiry and lying to parliament , once Corona is over.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why on earth has that silly bint not resigned yet? I really don't want anyone that obtuse in charge of our medical efforts.
    Come on, how long it take to get rid of the Finance Minister when he was caught grooming teenage boys? It was hardly instant.

    Sturgeon has many strengths as a politician but her reaction to HR crises would embarrass John Major.
    I t was an hour or so to consult the lawyers, this has gone almost a day already.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why on earth has that silly bint not resigned yet? I really don't want anyone that obtuse in charge of our medical efforts.
    Come on, how long it take to get rid of the Finance Minister when he was caught grooming teenage boys? It was hardly instant.

    Sturgeon has many strengths as a politician but her reaction to HR crises would embarrass John Major.
    I t was an hour or so to consult the lawyers, this has gone almost a day already.
    Thats a shocker it really is stay at homes ..noone is going to fall for that .
This discussion has been closed.