politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

NerysHughes said:

Mysticrose said:

NerysHughes said:

My wife has just been sent home from her day shift at Winchester Hospital, too many nurses not enough patients

Wow. I've heard some rumours to that effect around where I live. There are allegedly 200 cases in total in Devon and I heard that A&E has been empty because people don't want to go near hospitals ...

Yesterday my daughter reported 170+ empty beds at Bournemouth hospital

Doctors in GP surgeries in parts of London (doing phone consultations only) are sitting around twiddling their thumbs.

ydoethur said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Mysticrose said:

ydoethur said:

Mysticrose said:

ydoethur said:

Mysticrose said:

TGOHF666 said:

ydoethur said:

Mysticrose said:

This is going to sound distasteful and I don't mean it to. However, picking up something Mike wrote that Johnson 'could go for whatever reason' ... If he did succumb to this horrible virus, who would be next PM? I'm asking from a betting point of view.

Is there a) an automatic new PM from the current line up or b) a new leadership election?

(Johnson 'still has a cough and a high temperature' - today's Sunday Times.)

Dominic Raab would be appointed PM, then there would be a leadership election.

It depends a little on whether the betting companies would regard Raab as PM (which in law he would be) or acting PM (which in practice he might be).

This is however ample reason to wish Mr Johnson a speedy and complete recovery...

Exactly the same process as if a PM had a heart attack or car accident etc in normal times. The process remains unchanged.

That doesn't answer the question.

The point about whether the betting companies would honour it is interesting.

By the way, why would Dominic Raab automatically be made PM? Is that on Boris' fiat? Do we have a constitutional Deputy PM in the same way that the US has a VP?

No. But Raab is First Secretary of State and is the nominated successor. The PM traditionally leaves advice for the Monarch on who to appoint if they die suddenly, going back to at least the Second World War.

Crikey.

Thank you. Not clear cut by any means then?

I hope Boris recovers, obviously. I certainly don't wish this hideous virus on any political opponent.

About as obscure as it possibly can be. Classic British fudge, forsooth.

Bear in mind that in our system of government technically there is no Prime Minister. There is a Minister nominated by the Sovereign to chair the cabinet. So in the absence of the nominated minister, the Sovereign nominates another one.

I love it!! We are a quite amazing nation. I guess we get away with it except in a severe crisis. So I hope this one isn't tested.

I've started re-watching the wonderful House of Cards (despite KS) and of course Frank Underwood's great play for office was to secure the Vice Presidency.

The original British version is much more tightly scripted and, in my opinion, better acted.

Of course it was. It had Ian Richardson in it. Compared to Ian Richardson Kevin Spacey is Chris Martin to Donald Bradman.

You might say that...

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I liked Giles Dilnot’s comment that the people who seem appalled to see a few people scattered around a park on a lovely spring day are probably not living in an inner London high rise

Yesterday I saw a comment on social media: "as we were taking exercise in the park I was horrified to see groups of people sitting around."

I keep telling people COBOL will always be relevant and no one veer believes me.

https://twitter.com/random_walker/status/1246616492701102080?s=19

ydoethur said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

ydoethur said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Mysticrose said:

ydoethur said:

Mysticrose said:

ydoethur said:

Mysticrose said:

TGOHF666 said:

ydoethur said:

Mysticrose said:

This is going to sound distasteful and I don't mean it to. However, picking up something Mike wrote that Johnson 'could go for whatever reason' ... If he did succumb to this horrible virus, who would be next PM? I'm asking from a betting point of view.

Is there a) an automatic new PM from the current line up or b) a new leadership election?

(Johnson 'still has a cough and a high temperature' - today's Sunday Times.)

Dominic Raab would be appointed PM, then there would be a leadership election.

It depends a little on whether the betting companies would regard Raab as PM (which in law he would be) or acting PM (which in practice he might be).

This is however ample reason to wish Mr Johnson a speedy and complete recovery...

Exactly the same process as if a PM had a heart attack or car accident etc in normal times. The process remains unchanged.

That doesn't answer the question.

The point about whether the betting companies would honour it is interesting.

By the way, why would Dominic Raab automatically be made PM? Is that on Boris' fiat? Do we have a constitutional Deputy PM in the same way that the US has a VP?

No. But Raab is First Secretary of State and is the nominated successor. The PM traditionally leaves advice for the Monarch on who to appoint if they die suddenly, going back to at least the Second World War.

Crikey.

Thank you. Not clear cut by any means then?

I hope Boris recovers, obviously. I certainly don't wish this hideous virus on any political opponent.

About as obscure as it possibly can be. Classic British fudge, forsooth.

Bear in mind that in our system of government technically there is no Prime Minister. There is a Minister nominated by the Sovereign to chair the cabinet. So in the absence of the nominated minister, the Sovereign nominates another one.

I love it!! We are a quite amazing nation. I guess we get away with it except in a severe crisis. So I hope this one isn't tested.

I've started re-watching the wonderful House of Cards (despite KS) and of course Frank Underwood's great play for office was to secure the Vice Presidency.

The original British version is much more tightly scripted and, in my opinion, better acted.

Of course it was. It had Ian Richardson in it. Compared to Ian Richardson Kevin Spacey is Chris Martin to Donald Bradman.

You might say that...

You might very well say that...

I couldn’t possibly comment.

As I see it there are two possibilities for the government.

Either people remember the delay and arguable incompetence around testing and ventilators and register this at the ballot box four years hence, or they treat it as part of the fog of war and deem they did a good job on the whole.

Knowing peoples' usual retention of political issues I would plump for the latter.

Mysticrose said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I liked Giles Dilnot’s comment that the people who seem appalled to see a few people scattered around a park on a lovely spring day are probably not living in an inner London high rise

Absolutely!

And this fascist attack on people driving to the countryside. Why the fuck shouldn't they? If they are in their own cars and in a remote area they are not virus vectors. We are totally ridiculous sometimes.

You can even hear on social media an argument that they might crash their cars on the way and divert A&E staff. I mean really. Is that our level of argument now?

Crazy

Mysticrose said:

We should all pay more attention to 1. supermarkets and 2. home deliveries. With regard to the latter, this bugger virus can live on surfaces for one to three days and some suggest even longer.

There's no Government information whatsoever on this. In our stampede to tell other people to stop enjoying fresh air we are inviting coronavirus into our homes. Thus not saving lives.

For the record, I have a decontamination room. In there I keep my outdoor clothing and disinfectant. Everything that comes into my house has to first be sprayed and wiped with anti-bacterials. Then I change out of the protective gear and go and wash.

I might still get the bloody thing but I'm not going to take lectures from an inept and incompetent Gov't about my use of fresh air whilst wearing my mask.

It sounds like you're taking every precaution. Last night's pizza takeout (Options are limited now for us) I washed my hands, took the pizza out the box without touching it then put it into the oven. Had a shower, slid the pizza off the oven tray onto the plate, disposed of box, washed hands again then ate.

NorthCadboll said:

The man has already proved he is a fecking arse! Calling things which haven't yet happened "gross errors and mistakes". Obviously he knows what is being discussed at Cobra meetings. Supporting the Prime Minister in one sentence and cutting his legs away in the next. He can feck himself!

1. I doubt he has attended a COBR meeting yet
2. It makes sense to plan ahead for when a vaccine is available.
3. It’s his job to criticise when they think things are going adrift. It’s his job.

Pulpstar said:

Mysticrose said:

We should all pay more attention to 1. supermarkets and 2. home deliveries. With regard to the latter, this bugger virus can live on surfaces for one to three days and some suggest even longer.

There's no Government information whatsoever on this. In our stampede to tell other people to stop enjoying fresh air we are inviting coronavirus into our homes. Thus not saving lives.

For the record, I have a decontamination room. In there I keep my outdoor clothing and disinfectant. Everything that comes into my house has to first be sprayed and wiped with anti-bacterials. Then I change out of the protective gear and go and wash.

I might still get the bloody thing but I'm not going to take lectures from an inept and incompetent Gov't about my use of fresh air whilst wearing my mask.

It sounds like you're taking every precaution. Last night's pizza takeout (Options are limited now for us) I washed my hands, took the pizza out the box without touching it then put it into the oven. Had a shower, slid the pizza off the oven tray onto the plate, disposed of box, washed hands again then ate.

I reckon you can improve on the sequencing. Doesn’t sound to me like a critical path.

What was the point of the shower? Just an opportune moment for your daily wash?

Is Chris Witty back at work yet, by the way? There’ve been updates on Hancock and Johnson, but haven’t heard anything from him. And did Vallance go down with it as well?

alex_ said:

Pulpstar said:

Mysticrose said:

We should all pay more attention to 1. supermarkets and 2. home deliveries. With regard to the latter, this bugger virus can live on surfaces for one to three days and some suggest even longer.

There's no Government information whatsoever on this. In our stampede to tell other people to stop enjoying fresh air we are inviting coronavirus into our homes. Thus not saving lives.

For the record, I have a decontamination room. In there I keep my outdoor clothing and disinfectant. Everything that comes into my house has to first be sprayed and wiped with anti-bacterials. Then I change out of the protective gear and go and wash.

I might still get the bloody thing but I'm not going to take lectures from an inept and incompetent Gov't about my use of fresh air whilst wearing my mask.

It sounds like you're taking every precaution. Last night's pizza takeout (Options are limited now for us) I washed my hands, took the pizza out the box without touching it then put it into the oven. Had a shower, slid the pizza off the oven tray onto the plate, disposed of box, washed hands again then ate.

I reckon you can improve on the sequencing. Doesn’t sound to me like a critical path.

What was the point of the shower? Just an opportune moment for your daily wash?

Been out for a 10k timed to arrive when the pizza got in.

FPPPPT:

TOPPING said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@MattW may I recommend an app called PictureThis which identifies plants with great reliability?

Seek is very good also and does insects/animals/friends as well.

Thanks both for the suggestion. I have one or perhaps two bushes to identify in the front garden, so I'll give it a try.

Pro_Rata said:

I'm sure we could go round the entire Peak District edge and Cheshire picking out a dozen seats with this interplay, seeing slightly less trendy post-industrial small places moving blue (Penistone & Stockbridge) and more trendy ones moving red (Staffs Moorlands would be a big ask for Labour, but I'd guess would trend red over time).

And the point is, everywhere has a commutable rural edge where this mix will.exist and which to some extent is seeing a flight from towns.

I wonder if we aren't still guilty of thinking in BC (Before Corona) mode?

If (for example) the NHS were to adopt a buy-British policy in future, that would mean lots of manufacturing jobs coming back. Where will those jobs go? Who will the workers vote for?

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Labour have comprehensively won the battle with the Lib Dems for urban progressives. There is not a single Lib Dem-held seat in Labour’s first 250 targets. And if the Lib Dems were not going to make advances against Labour led by a leader tainted by accusations of anti-Semitism and half-heartedness on Brexit, they probably never will.

Whilst this is true, the Lib Dems are still very much of the equation...

...Labour can probably form a government so long as Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems tally a combined 320 seats or so.

Would Labour ever consider doing a deal with the Lib Dems? Would the two parties benefit from giving the other a free run in seats such as:

For Labour (LD votes in excess of the Tory majority):

Kensington (9,162)
Watford (4,890)
Chipping Barnet (4,720)
Warrington South (3,722)
Truro and Falmouth (2,589)
Southport (2,352)
Wycombe (2,329)
High Peak (2,160)
Burnley (2,149)
Rushcliffe (1,957)
Bury South (1,913)
North West Durham (1,687)
Gedling (1,600)
Chingford and Woodford Green (1,482)
Delyn (1,481)

There are a further 16 seats where the Lib Dem vote was more than the Tory majority.

For the Lib Dems (Labour votes in excess of the Tory majority):

Wimbledon (11,915)
Cities of London and Westminster (7,671)
Finchley and Golders Green (6,785)
Carshalton and Wallington (5,452)
South Cambridgeshire (4,899)
Cheadle (4,515)
Hitchin and Harpenden (3,064)
Cheltenham (1,940)
Winchester (1,738)
Guildford (1,178)
Hazel Grove (1,085)
Lewes (749)
Esher and Walton (95)

These are the only 13 seats that the Labour vote was more than the Tory majority. However, there are other seats (Chelsea and Fulham, Eastbourne, St Ives, Wokingham, Woking and South East Cambridgeshire) where the majority was fewer than 1,000 votes more than the Labour vote.

Obviously this would be a big deal for Labour. But given that it is difficult to see Labour winning an outright majority at the next election, why not do a deal that might be deny the Tories a majority?

What are the chances that Labour might back PR (by STV)?

Not impossible. It becomes the rational choice when Labour decides that there can never be a Labour majority FPTP but can be a centre left majority in terms of total votes.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1246703530842435585?s=20

algarkirk said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Labour have comprehensively won the battle with the Lib Dems for urban progressives. There is not a single Lib Dem-held seat in Labour’s first 250 targets. And if the Lib Dems were not going to make advances against Labour led by a leader tainted by accusations of anti-Semitism and half-heartedness on Brexit, they probably never will.

Whilst this is true, the Lib Dems are still very much of the equation...

...Labour can probably form a government so long as Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems tally a combined 320 seats or so.

Would Labour ever consider doing a deal with the Lib Dems? Would the two parties benefit from giving the other a free run in seats such as:

For Labour (LD votes in excess of the Tory majority):

Kensington (9,162)
Watford (4,890)
Chipping Barnet (4,720)
Warrington South (3,722)
Truro and Falmouth (2,589)
Southport (2,352)
Wycombe (2,329)
High Peak (2,160)
Burnley (2,149)
Rushcliffe (1,957)
Bury South (1,913)
North West Durham (1,687)
Gedling (1,600)
Chingford and Woodford Green (1,482)
Delyn (1,481)

There are a further 16 seats where the Lib Dem vote was more than the Tory majority.

For the Lib Dems (Labour votes in excess of the Tory majority):

Wimbledon (11,915)
Cities of London and Westminster (7,671)
Finchley and Golders Green (6,785)
Carshalton and Wallington (5,452)
South Cambridgeshire (4,899)
Cheadle (4,515)
Hitchin and Harpenden (3,064)
Cheltenham (1,940)
Winchester (1,738)
Guildford (1,178)
Hazel Grove (1,085)
Lewes (749)
Esher and Walton (95)

These are the only 13 seats that the Labour vote was more than the Tory majority. However, there are other seats (Chelsea and Fulham, Eastbourne, St Ives, Wokingham, Woking and South East Cambridgeshire) where the majority was fewer than 1,000 votes more than the Labour vote.

Obviously this would be a big deal for Labour. But given that it is difficult to see Labour winning an outright majority at the next election, why not do a deal that might be deny the Tories a majority?

What are the chances that Labour might back PR (by STV)?

Not impossible. It becomes the rational choice when Labour decides that there can never be a Labour majority FPTP but can be a centre left majority in terms of total votes.

Picking a voting system based on how it benefits your own party is inevitable I suppose, but it is not a good look.

https://xkcd.com/2289/

Mysticrose said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I liked Giles Dilnot’s comment that the people who seem appalled to see a few people scattered around a park on a lovely spring day are probably not living in an inner London high rise

Absolutely!

And this fascist attack on people driving to the countryside. Why the fuck shouldn't they? If they are in their own cars and in a remote area they are not virus vectors. We are totally ridiculous sometimes.

You can even hear on social media an argument that they might crash their cars on the way and divert A&E staff. I mean really. Is that our level of argument now?

Agree. It's a true scandal in the making and unnecessary. I am lucky. I live in an area where there are a million places to exercise and sunbathe (good weather for it about 2 days a year) where the chances of finding another person is almost nil and the prospect of a lurking copper is zero.

What on earth are urban people in rooms and flats supposed to do? What are parks for? It's bonkers.

By way of token gesture our local authority has locked the gates of the cemetery. But its walls are two feet high.

Fysics_Teacher said:

algarkirk said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Labour have comprehensively won the battle with the Lib Dems for urban progressives. There is not a single Lib Dem-held seat in Labour’s first 250 targets. And if the Lib Dems were not going to make advances against Labour led by a leader tainted by accusations of anti-Semitism and half-heartedness on Brexit, they probably never will.

Whilst this is true, the Lib Dems are still very much of the equation...

...Labour can probably form a government so long as Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems tally a combined 320 seats or so.

Would Labour ever consider doing a deal with the Lib Dems? Would the two parties benefit from giving the other a free run in seats such as:

For Labour (LD votes in excess of the Tory majority):

Kensington (9,162)
Watford (4,890)
Chipping Barnet (4,720)
Warrington South (3,722)
Truro and Falmouth (2,589)
Southport (2,352)
Wycombe (2,329)
High Peak (2,160)
Burnley (2,149)
Rushcliffe (1,957)
Bury South (1,913)
North West Durham (1,687)
Gedling (1,600)
Chingford and Woodford Green (1,482)
Delyn (1,481)

There are a further 16 seats where the Lib Dem vote was more than the Tory majority.

For the Lib Dems (Labour votes in excess of the Tory majority):

Wimbledon (11,915)
Cities of London and Westminster (7,671)
Finchley and Golders Green (6,785)
Carshalton and Wallington (5,452)
South Cambridgeshire (4,899)
Cheadle (4,515)
Hitchin and Harpenden (3,064)
Cheltenham (1,940)
Winchester (1,738)
Guildford (1,178)
Hazel Grove (1,085)
Lewes (749)
Esher and Walton (95)

These are the only 13 seats that the Labour vote was more than the Tory majority. However, there are other seats (Chelsea and Fulham, Eastbourne, St Ives, Wokingham, Woking and South East Cambridgeshire) where the majority was fewer than 1,000 votes more than the Labour vote.

Obviously this would be a big deal for Labour. But given that it is difficult to see Labour winning an outright majority at the next election, why not do a deal that might be deny the Tories a majority?

What are the chances that Labour might back PR (by STV)?

Not impossible. It becomes the rational choice when Labour decides that there can never be a Labour majority FPTP but can be a centre left majority in terms of total votes.

Picking a voting system based on how it benefits your own party is inevitable I suppose, but it is not a good look.

It’s how the 1867, 1885, 1918 and 1948 reforms went through.

algarkirk said:

Mysticrose said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I liked Giles Dilnot’s comment that the people who seem appalled to see a few people scattered around a park on a lovely spring day are probably not living in an inner London high rise

Absolutely!

And this fascist attack on people driving to the countryside. Why the fuck shouldn't they? If they are in their own cars and in a remote area they are not virus vectors. We are totally ridiculous sometimes.

You can even hear on social media an argument that they might crash their cars on the way and divert A&E staff. I mean really. Is that our level of argument now?

Agree. It's a true scandal in the making and unnecessary. I am lucky. I live in an area where there are a million places to exercise and sunbathe (good weather for it about 2 days a year) where the chances of finding another person is almost nil and the prospect of a lurking copper is zero.

What on earth are urban people in rooms and flats supposed to do? What are parks for? It's bonkers.

By way of token gesture our local authority has locked the gates of the cemetery. But its walls are two feet high.

If everyone living in central London took govt advice literally and only went for walks (no driving to destinations) in the close proximity of their homes the streets would be packed.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Foxy said:

alex_ said:

Is Chris Witty back at work yet, by the way? There’ve been updates on Hancock and Johnson, but haven’t heard anything from him. And did Vallance go down with it as well?

No word on Cummings either.

How are you?

OK, back at work now. Mrs Foxy a bit flat and post viral.

Indeed, am rather enjoying the lockdown. It's like a Seventies Sunday, nothing to do but gardening. Compared to running the gauntlet again on Monday, quite pleasant. Life seems more precious than ever.

Pulpstar said:

alex_ said:

Pulpstar said:

Mysticrose said:

We should all pay more attention to 1. supermarkets and 2. home deliveries. With regard to the latter, this bugger virus can live on surfaces for one to three days and some suggest even longer.

There's no Government information whatsoever on this. In our stampede to tell other people to stop enjoying fresh air we are inviting coronavirus into our homes. Thus not saving lives.

For the record, I have a decontamination room. In there I keep my outdoor clothing and disinfectant. Everything that comes into my house has to first be sprayed and wiped with anti-bacterials. Then I change out of the protective gear and go and wash.

I might still get the bloody thing but I'm not going to take lectures from an inept and incompetent Gov't about my use of fresh air whilst wearing my mask.

It sounds like you're taking every precaution. Last night's pizza takeout (Options are limited now for us) I washed my hands, took the pizza out the box without touching it then put it into the oven. Had a shower, slid the pizza off the oven tray onto the plate, disposed of box, washed hands again then ate.

I reckon you can improve on the sequencing. Doesn’t sound to me like a critical path.

What was the point of the shower? Just an opportune moment for your daily wash?

Been out for a 10k timed to arrive when the pizza got in.

And there was me, thinking it a moment of quiet reflection about not having bought that flamethrower to dispose of the pizza box....

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

Labour have comprehensively won the battle with the Lib Dems for urban progressives. There is not a single Lib Dem-held seat in Labour’s first 250 targets. And if the Lib Dems were not going to make advances against Labour led by a leader tainted by accusations of anti-Semitism and half-heartedness on Brexit, they probably never will.

Whilst this is true, the Lib Dems are still very much of the equation...

...Labour can probably form a government so long as Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems tally a combined 320 seats or so.

Would Labour ever consider doing a deal with the Lib Dems? Would the two parties benefit from giving the other a free run in seats such as:

For Labour (LD votes in excess of the Tory majority):

Kensington (9,162)
Watford (4,890)
Chipping Barnet (4,720)
Warrington South (3,722)
Truro and Falmouth (2,589)
Southport (2,352)
Wycombe (2,329)
High Peak (2,160)
Burnley (2,149)
Rushcliffe (1,957)
Bury South (1,913)
North West Durham (1,687)
Gedling (1,600)
Chingford and Woodford Green (1,482)
Delyn (1,481)

There are a further 16 seats where the Lib Dem vote was more than the Tory majority.

For the Lib Dems (Labour votes in excess of the Tory majority):

Wimbledon (11,915)
Cities of London and Westminster (7,671)
Finchley and Golders Green (6,785)
Carshalton and Wallington (5,452)
South Cambridgeshire (4,899)
Cheadle (4,515)
Hitchin and Harpenden (3,064)
Cheltenham (1,940)
Winchester (1,738)
Guildford (1,178)
Hazel Grove (1,085)
Lewes (749)
Esher and Walton (95)

These are the only 13 seats that the Labour vote was more than the Tory majority. However, there are other seats (Chelsea and Fulham, Eastbourne, St Ives, Wokingham, Woking and South East Cambridgeshire) where the majority was fewer than 1,000 votes more than the Labour vote.

Obviously this would be a big deal for Labour. But given that it is difficult to see Labour winning an outright majority at the next election, why not do a deal that might be deny the Tories a majority?

What are the chances that Labour might back PR (by STV)?

They always do that when they need Liberal or Lib Dem votes. So the chances are probably quite good.

Mr. Nichomar, not only that, social distancing requires everyone to be sensible. If one person in a hundred is a moron, that affect the others even though they're not doing anything wrong themselves.

Not always easy, though. Local shop has narrow aisles and sometimes it's literally impossible to stay six feet away from people all the time. But food isn't exactly optional.

algarkirk said:

Mysticrose said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I liked Giles Dilnot’s comment that the people who seem appalled to see a few people scattered around a park on a lovely spring day are probably not living in an inner London high rise

Absolutely!

And this fascist attack on people driving to the countryside. Why the fuck shouldn't they? If they are in their own cars and in a remote area they are not virus vectors. We are totally ridiculous sometimes.

You can even hear on social media an argument that they might crash their cars on the way and divert A&E staff. I mean really. Is that our level of argument now?

Agree. It's a true scandal in the making and unnecessary. I am lucky. I live in an area where there are a million places to exercise and sunbathe (good weather for it about 2 days a year) where the chances of finding another person is almost nil and the prospect of a lurking copper is zero.

What on earth are urban people in rooms and flats supposed to do? What are parks for? It's bonkers.

By way of token gesture our local authority has locked the gates of the cemetery. But its walls are two feet high.

Trouble is, people are creatures of habit. The Govt. COULD say go out in your car, but find a spot to park it at least 50 yards from another. But these folk would all still go to the one spot they know, cheek by jowl in the car park with everyone else. Thinking THEY were the ones entitled to carry on doing exactly what they did before.

Good article from Alastair. I also believe a Starmer-led Labour party - especially in a post-crisis world - is far less likely to terrify potential Tory to LD switchers. And every seat the LDs can take from the Tories makes Labour’s task that little less daunting.

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

alex_ said:

Pulpstar said:

Mysticrose said:

We should all pay more attention to 1. supermarkets and 2. home deliveries. With regard to the latter, this bugger virus can live on surfaces for one to three days and some suggest even longer.

There's no Government information whatsoever on this. In our stampede to tell other people to stop enjoying fresh air we are inviting coronavirus into our homes. Thus not saving lives.

For the record, I have a decontamination room. In there I keep my outdoor clothing and disinfectant. Everything that comes into my house has to first be sprayed and wiped with anti-bacterials. Then I change out of the protective gear and go and wash.

I might still get the bloody thing but I'm not going to take lectures from an inept and incompetent Gov't about my use of fresh air whilst wearing my mask.

It sounds like you're taking every precaution. Last night's pizza takeout (Options are limited now for us) I washed my hands, took the pizza out the box without touching it then put it into the oven. Had a shower, slid the pizza off the oven tray onto the plate, disposed of box, washed hands again then ate.

I reckon you can improve on the sequencing. Doesn’t sound to me like a critical path.

What was the point of the shower? Just an opportune moment for your daily wash?

Been out for a 10k timed to arrive when the pizza got in.

And there was me, thinking it a moment of quiet reflection about not having bought that flamethrower to dispose of the pizza box....

Personally, I won't touch takeaway, as the risk is from aerosol and droplet spread in the kitchen. I am not eating anything myself not cooked by ourselves or in sealed packing and kept for several days.

While viral antigen can be detected, live virus expires fairly quickly on packaging.

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1246703530842435585?s=20

Not really surprising following the media onslaught last week but I also think those losing income without receiving immediate cash from HMG will be unhappy

It’s the rhetoric vs reality gap. The daily press conferences are an error, should be twice a week. There is a perverse incentive to announce things rather than deliver things.

Fair point.. but the problem is that the media would go nuts without its daily update.. how else do they fill their schedules/newpapers

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1246703530842435585?s=20

Not really surprising following the media onslaught last week but I also think those losing income without receiving immediate cash from HMG will be unhappy

It’s the rhetoric vs reality gap. The daily press conferences are an error, should be twice a week. There is a perverse incentive to announce things rather than deliver things.

I agree, a simple press release on numbers each day and press conference a couple of times per week is plenty.

..

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

alex_ said:

Pulpstar said:

Mysticrose said:

We should all pay more attention to 1. supermarkets and 2. home deliveries. With regard to the latter, this bugger virus can live on surfaces for one to three days and some suggest even longer.

There's no Government information whatsoever on this. In our stampede to tell other people to stop enjoying fresh air we are inviting coronavirus into our homes. Thus not saving lives.

For the record, I have a decontamination room. In there I keep my outdoor clothing and disinfectant. Everything that comes into my house has to first be sprayed and wiped with anti-bacterials. Then I change out of the protective gear and go and wash.

I might still get the bloody thing but I'm not going to take lectures from an inept and incompetent Gov't about my use of fresh air whilst wearing my mask.

It sounds like you're taking every precaution. Last night's pizza takeout (Options are limited now for us) I washed my hands, took the pizza out the box without touching it then put it into the oven. Had a shower, slid the pizza off the oven tray onto the plate, disposed of box, washed hands again then ate.

I reckon you can improve on the sequencing. Doesn’t sound to me like a critical path.

What was the point of the shower? Just an opportune moment for your daily wash?

Been out for a 10k timed to arrive when the pizza got in.

And there was me, thinking it a moment of quiet reflection about not having bought that flamethrower to dispose of the pizza box....

Personally, I won't touch takeaway, as the risk is from aerosol and droplet spread in the kitchen. I am not eating anything myself not cooked by ourselves or in sealed packing and kept for several days.

While viral antigen can be detected, live virus expires fairly quickly on packaging.

I suspect that when we get the post mortem on this event, we will discover that aerosol and droplet spread accounted for 90%+ of infections and that there was actually a minimal risk from packaging. Not that I'm taking any chances, mind.

Communal singing might prove to have been a real horror. The theatre. Football chants. Bellowing on your horse at Cheltenham. Things where masks make a huge difference.

Families who live in flats should be allowed to sit in the sun in the park. Done right it harms no-one and makes social isolation more effective long-term.

I have a colleague with two young children in a flat. It would be ridiculous for the police to move them along, let them have a picnic and a little play.

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

alex_ said:

Pulpstar said:

Mysticrose said:

We should all pay more attention to 1. supermarkets and 2. home deliveries. With regard to the latter, this bugger virus can live on surfaces for one to three days and some suggest even longer.

There's no Government information whatsoever on this. In our stampede to tell other people to stop enjoying fresh air we are inviting coronavirus into our homes. Thus not saving lives.

For the record, I have a decontamination room. In there I keep my outdoor clothing and disinfectant. Everything that comes into my house has to first be sprayed and wiped with anti-bacterials. Then I change out of the protective gear and go and wash.

I might still get the bloody thing but I'm not going to take lectures from an inept and incompetent Gov't about my use of fresh air whilst wearing my mask.

It sounds like you're taking every precaution. Last night's pizza takeout (Options are limited now for us) I washed my hands, took the pizza out the box without touching it then put it into the oven. Had a shower, slid the pizza off the oven tray onto the plate, disposed of box, washed hands again then ate.

I reckon you can improve on the sequencing. Doesn’t sound to me like a critical path.

What was the point of the shower? Just an opportune moment for your daily wash?

Been out for a 10k timed to arrive when the pizza got in.

And there was me, thinking it a moment of quiet reflection about not having bought that flamethrower to dispose of the pizza box....

Personally, I won't touch takeaway, as the risk is from aerosol and droplet spread in the kitchen. I am not eating anything myself not cooked by ourselves or in sealed packing and kept for several days.

While viral antigen can be detected, live virus expires fairly quickly on packaging.

There are risks with that.

I had a corn cobette diet for several days when I accidentally desfrosted an entire bag of them in the hall Quarantine Trolley, rather than putting them in the Plague Drawer in the freezer.

IshmaelZ said:

algarkirk said:

MarqueeMark said:

algarkirk said:

Mysticrose said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I liked Giles Dilnot’s comment that the people who seem appalled to see a few people scattered around a park on a lovely spring day are probably not living in an inner London high rise

Absolutely!

And this fascist attack on people driving to the countryside. Why the fuck shouldn't they? If they are in their own cars and in a remote area they are not virus vectors. We are totally ridiculous sometimes.

You can even hear on social media an argument that they might crash their cars on the way and divert A&E staff. I mean really. Is that our level of argument now?

Agree. It's a true scandal in the making and unnecessary. I am lucky. I live in an area where there are a million places to exercise and sunbathe (good weather for it about 2 days a year) where the chances of finding another person is almost nil and the prospect of a lurking copper is zero.

What on earth are urban people in rooms and flats supposed to do? What are parks for? It's bonkers.

By way of token gesture our local authority has locked the gates of the cemetery. But its walls are two feet high.

Trouble is, people are creatures of habit. The Govt. COULD say go out in your car, but find a spot to park it at least 50 yards from another. But these folk would all still go to the one spot they know, cheek by jowl in the car park with everyone else. Thinking THEY were the ones entitled to carry on doing exactly what they did before.

A consequence perhaps of a policy of encouraging a high proportion of visitors into a tiny proportion of space. There are vast swathes of rural UK, including in national parks, that are practically or even absolutely empty more or less all of the time.

Really? Dartmoor is better than most because we are that much further from megacities. Lakes, peak and Snowdonia are horrific all the time by the look of it.

Appearances are extremely deceptive, and are usually of the same few places. Try nearly all of Lincolnshire nearly all the time, the entire area covered by the Southern Upland Way, most of Northumberland, even much of Sussex once you are off road, North Norfolk away from the coast........I could go on

felix said:

Here in SE Spain the Police are already in place with motorway and other roadblocks to prevent people heading here for the Easter break to second homes. There is a massive operation going on with lots of publicity about it. Again - reading many of the comments on here suggests many of you have no real idea of the scale of the problem you have. Our cities are at least as high rise as yours with few places for people to exercise, etc. Yet all I read is 'but, but, but, exception, exception, exception. Simply unreal.

Absolutely.

Jonathan said:

Families who live in flats should be allowed to sit in the sun in the park. Done right it harms no-one and makes social isolation more effective long-term.

I have a colleague with two young children in a flat. It would be ridiculous for the police to move them along, let them have a picnic and a little play.

Quite right. And FWIW, the term 'exercise' is the relevant one. There is no reason why 'exercise' should not embrace mental, spiritual and awareness forms of exercise just as much as physical.

What Alastair’s excellent piece highlights is that Labour’s pretensions to represent the working class is nothing more than a dinner party fantasy. They in fact represent the largely public sector professional class who are protected from the economic consequences of their policies by the largesse of the state. Starmer seems to me to be the perfect leader for such a party.

So Labour will continue to thrive in University towns, in places with a large number of urban professionals including the towns they commute from. I see the breaking of the red wall as a process, not an event. Traditional Labour seats find that they have increasingly less and less in common with this middle class bureaucracy and it’s obsessions and I suspect more of them will drift away. I don’t think that Starmer is the person to stop this process.

Of course if the Tories are thought to have mis-handled the economic carnage about to descend upon us none of this will matter. We live in volatile and slightly frightening times where conventional analysis has a deckchair on the Titanic feel to it.

IshmaelZ said:

algarkirk said:

MarqueeMark said:

algarkirk said:

Mysticrose said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I liked Giles Dilnot’s comment that the people who seem appalled to see a few people scattered around a park on a lovely spring day are probably not living in an inner London high rise

Absolutely!

And this fascist attack on people driving to the countryside. Why the fuck shouldn't they? If they are in their own cars and in a remote area they are not virus vectors. We are totally ridiculous sometimes.

You can even hear on social media an argument that they might crash their cars on the way and divert A&E staff. I mean really. Is that our level of argument now?

Agree. It's a true scandal in the making and unnecessary. I am lucky. I live in an area where there are a million places to exercise and sunbathe (good weather for it about 2 days a year) where the chances of finding another person is almost nil and the prospect of a lurking copper is zero.

What on earth are urban people in rooms and flats supposed to do? What are parks for? It's bonkers.

By way of token gesture our local authority has locked the gates of the cemetery. But its walls are two feet high.

Trouble is, people are creatures of habit. The Govt. COULD say go out in your car, but find a spot to park it at least 50 yards from another. But these folk would all still go to the one spot they know, cheek by jowl in the car park with everyone else. Thinking THEY were the ones entitled to carry on doing exactly what they did before.

A consequence perhaps of a policy of encouraging a high proportion of visitors into a tiny proportion of space. There are vast swathes of rural UK, including in national parks, that are practically or even absolutely empty more or less all of the time.

Really? Dartmoor is better than most because we are that much further from megacities. Lakes, peak and Snowdonia are horrific all the time by the look of it.

The issue, in most cases, seems to be the point of initial access/car parks rather than places of exercise themselves. Although it’s easy to take pictures of packed car parks and conclude/imply, often wrongly, that they correlate to lots of people closely grouped. Which of course they don’t with people arriving or departing minutes or hours apart.

twistedfirestopper3 said:

I don't know if any of you have ever been in a tower block. It's grim, and I only visit them fleetingly.
There is a 23 storey block in Leicester called Goscote House that is scheduled for demolition. The council have given us a free run to use it for training until it goes. It's an amazing venue, and we were making good use of it until the pandemic.
My point is this... On my first visit a few months ago, after we'd spent a couple of hours running hose up and down the stairs, we sat in a flat on the top floor contemplating life. It was a bedsit, literally a combined lounge/bedroom with ensuite bathroom and what we call an ensuite kitchen. You won't be swinging any cats in there. The windows only open an inch and there isn't a balcony. It was unremittingly bleak. I actually felt disgust that we made people live like that.
When we're in our nice gardens this afternoon, having a beer and a bbq, wondering where we're going to source plants now that B&Q are shut, raise a glass to the ones stuck in that high-rise.

I don't see how people can effectively live in those places in a pandemic, when theoretically you can't share a lift with someone. There is no way to police "it's my turn" for someone waiting to get to the 20th floor. Are they supposed to go out once a week and lug their shopping up twenty flights of stairs, whilst hoping they don't meet anybody else doing the same? Poor sods, it must be utterly wretched.

To minimise the time folks are having to go through this is why we have to enforce the lock-down.

Jonathan said:

Jonathan said:

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1246703530842435585?s=20

Not really surprising following the media onslaught last week but I also think those losing income without receiving immediate cash from HMG will be unhappy

It’s the rhetoric vs reality gap. The daily press conferences are an error, should be twice a week. There is a perverse incentive to announce things rather than deliver things.

Fair point.. but the problem is that the media would go nuts without its daily update.. how else do they fill their schedules/newpapers

Who cares. Governments primarily job is not to feed the media.

So the government should focus on fighting the crisis or feeding the press? If you really need to, on the off days let the monarchy, the opposition or the nations have a go. Send Charles out, he should be immune.

But on the other hand, for most of this crisis, far reaching decisions have been being taken on an almost daily basis. And the Govt naturally don’t want to fuel accusations of coverups that could undermine public confidence. So feeding the media and giving them column inches is probably seen as quite important.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

Mysticrose said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I liked Giles Dilnot’s comment that the people who seem appalled to see a few people scattered around a park on a lovely spring day are probably not living in an inner London high rise

Absolutely!

And this fascist attack on people driving to the countryside. Why the fuck shouldn't they? If they are in their own cars and in a remote area they are not virus vectors. We are totally ridiculous sometimes.

You can even hear on social media an argument that they might crash their cars on the way and divert A&E staff. I mean really. Is that our level of argument now?

Agree. It's a true scandal in the making and unnecessary. I am lucky. I live in an area where there are a million places to exercise and sunbathe (good weather for it about 2 days a year) where the chances of finding another person is almost nil and the prospect of a lurking copper is zero.

What on earth are urban people in rooms and flats supposed to do? What are parks for? It's bonkers.

By way of token gesture our local authority has locked the gates of the cemetery. But its walls are two feet high.

You are both ignoring the fury from locals who are strictly following stay at home only to see outsiders drive into their communities in a selfish desire to get on with their lives

Here in North Wales the police are enforcing the regulations with the total support of our communities and indeed some are to be prosecuted in the magistates courts under the Welsh government legislation on covid 19

And this is one piece of Welsh labour legislation that sees widescale support

Not surprising reaction from you.

You must be careful Big G. Oldies who are doing ok or who are past it telling the young who might live in very restricted circumstances how to protect them is not an especially good look.

Hancock seems to me to be rather muddled here. A lot of pausing, a lot of hesitating, a lot of contradiction. He also looks exhausted.

You wonder how much the virus has taken it out of him.

Morning everyone. Been thinking about social isolation in my family's terms. We've got a small garden and live in a small town with easily accessible walks. Easy to walk for an hour without having to get within 2m of anyone, We do it daily. Goods can be ordered on line, paid for by credit card and left on the doorstep 5m from the road. We have the technology and similarly minded and equipped friends and can (and do) interact virtually.
Son has a garden and indeed he and his family had a BBQ in it yesterday, just for them. However, his family includes two teenage children for who electronic contact is just not the same as physical and they're NOT HAPPY. There aren't, by any means the same options for walks for them, either.
Eldest granddaughter lives with her boyfriend in a modernised terrace house in a northern industrial city. Thirty+, recently moved there, friends all over the place, but most within weekend driving distance. If they can't go to the park for a walk, exercise is a problem. Both socialising and working from home are becoming more difficult.
Son-in-law has a busy job in a warehouse supplying some bits of PPE. So, day by day, he's busy. But he's a widower who comes home to an empty house, and although he now has a lady-friend, he can't see her because she lives in a different house, with an elderly, at risk, mother.

I could go on; we're coping and as I say we're all technologically reasonably to very literate. But I can understand, and sympathise with, people who 'break curfew'. Can imagine, for example, eldest granddaughter and partner going out and having a BBQ on the beach. What harm would that do?

OldKingCole said:

Morning everyone. Been thinking about social isolation in my family's terms. We've got a small garden and live in a small town with easily accessible walks. Easy to walk for an hour without having to get within 2m of anyone, We do it daily. Goods can be ordered on line, paid for by credit card and left on the doorstep 5m from the road. We have the technology and similarly minded and equipped friends and can (and do) interact virtually.
Son has a garden and indeed he and his family had a BBQ in it yesterday, just for them. However, his family includes two teenage children for who electronic contact is just not the same as physical and they're NOT HAPPY. There aren't, by any means the same options for walks for them, either.
Eldest granddaughter lives with her boyfriend in a modernised terrace house in a northern industrial city. Thirty+, recently moved there, friends all over the place, but most within weekend driving distance. If they can't go to the park for a walk, exercise is a problem. Both socialising and working from home are becoming more difficult.
Son-in-law has a busy job in a warehouse supplying some bits of PPE. So, day by day, he's busy. But he's a widower who comes home to an empty house, and although he now has a lady-friend, he can't see her because she lives in a different house, with an elderly, at risk, mother.

I could go on; we're coping and as I say we're all technologically reasonably to very literate. But I can understand, and sympathise with, people who 'break curfew'. Can imagine, for example, eldest granddaughter and partner going out and having a BBQ on the beach. What harm would that do?

And yet Hancock has just threatened to take away exercise as an excuse to leave home as well.

I really wonder if he understands what that might mean.

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

alex_ said:

Pulpstar said:

Mysticrose said:

We should all pay more attention to 1. supermarkets and 2. home deliveries. With regard to the latter, this bugger virus can live on surfaces for one to three days and some suggest even longer.

There's no Government information whatsoever on this. In our stampede to tell other people to stop enjoying fresh air we are inviting coronavirus into our homes. Thus not saving lives.

For the record, I have a decontamination room. In there I keep my outdoor clothing and disinfectant. Everything that comes into my house has to first be sprayed and wiped with anti-bacterials. Then I change out of the protective gear and go and wash.

I might still get the bloody thing but I'm not going to take lectures from an inept and incompetent Gov't about my use of fresh air whilst wearing my mask.

It sounds like you're taking every precaution. Last night's pizza takeout (Options are limited now for us) I washed my hands, took the pizza out the box without touching it then put it into the oven. Had a shower, slid the pizza off the oven tray onto the plate, disposed of box, washed hands again then ate.

I reckon you can improve on the sequencing. Doesn’t sound to me like a critical path.

What was the point of the shower? Just an opportune moment for your daily wash?

Been out for a 10k timed to arrive when the pizza got in.

And there was me, thinking it a moment of quiet reflection about not having bought that flamethrower to dispose of the pizza box....

Personally, I won't touch takeaway, as the risk is from aerosol and droplet spread in the kitchen. I am not eating anything myself not cooked by ourselves or in sealed packing and kept for several days.

While viral antigen can be detected, live virus expires fairly quickly on packaging.

I suspect that when we get the post mortem on this event, we will discover that aerosol and droplet spread accounted for 90%+ of infections and that there was actually a minimal risk from packaging. Not that I'm taking any chances, mind.

Communal singing might prove to have been a real horror. The theatre. Football chants. Bellowing on your horse at Cheltenham. Things where masks make a huge difference.

I think that is to some extent true, as the risk would be correlated with number of contacts on that spot as well as with eg if the person touching the viral deposit then picks their nose. However I suspect that things like machine keypads and screens would be higher risk as having more people touching them.

Personally I have been carrying a microfibre cloth damp with surgical spirit in a plastic bag in my pocket for several weeks now for such occasions, and a little bottle of the same.

Quickly discovered that it takes the "how to cook" instructions off various food items :-) .

The WHO website has some good practical guidance.